Seth Stohs

On Friday afternoon, I welcomed Twins and Twins minor league related questions on my Twitter account. A few people asked questions, but one really stood out as really interesting. So, I will answer that one first before answering the others more quickly. The first question was asked by Seth Postma. Great name, Great Questions. Right? In two tweets, he asked: [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]Think about that just for a minute. Kershaw won the National League Cy Young Award this year, his second Cy Young Award in the last three seasons (finished 2nd in 2012!). Jose Fernandez finished third place in this year's NL Cy Young voting and was the easy choice for National League Rookie of the Year. Though Fernandez is right-handed and Kershaw is a southpaw, they both made their big league debut less than two years after they were drafted out of high school. They were both first round picks, Kershaw seventh overall in 2006, and Fernandez taken with the 14th overall pick in 2011. Kershaw debuted in 2006 in the GCL with five walks and 54 strikeouts in 37 innings. He began the 2007 season in the Midwest League (Low-A) where he went 7-5 with a 2.77 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in 97.1 innings. He gave up 72 hits, walked 50 and struck out 134. He was promoted directly to AA and made five starts to end that 19-year-old season. He was 1-2 with a 3.65 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP in 24.2 innings. He struck out 29, but he also walked 18. He began the 2008 season (his age-20 season) back in AA, but he went 2-3 wit ha 1.91 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP in 11 starts. He struck out 59 and walked just 18 in 61.1 innings. On June 20, 2008, he made his big league debut. Now, his debut wasn't earthshaking. He was 5-5 with a 4.26 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP. In 107.2 innings, he gave up 109 hits, walked 52 and struck out 100. Of course, in five seasons since then, he has gone 72-41 with a 2.43 ERA. After walking 4.8 per nine in 2009 and 3.6 per nine in 2010, he has walked 2.5 per nine or less each of the last three years while striking out more than a batter per inning in all but 2013 (8.8/9). If you thought that Kershaw's ascent was quick and impressive, wait until you read about Jose Fernandez. The Cuban-born righty was drafted in 2011 out of his Tampa high school. He pitched in just two games after signing that season. As a 19 year old in 2012, he began in Low-A and went 7-0 with a 1.59 ERA and a 0.87 WHIP. In 79.1 innings, he gave up just 51 hits, walked just 18 and struck out 99. He was promoted to High-A where he went 7-1 with a 1.96 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP. In 55 innings, he gave up 38 hits, walked 17 and struck out 59. That's it for his minor league career. Mike Redmond decided that he would skip AA and AAA and make the Marlins' Opening Day roster. He went 12-6 with a 2.19 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP. He was shut down in September at 172.2 innings and had given up just 111 hits, walked 58 and struck out 187. As a 20 year old! Would the Twins have done that? I think we can safely answer "No" to that one! They wouldn't have a 20 year old skip AA and AAA. I think that's fairly definitive, and I don't think many (if any) Twins fans would disagree with the decision to let him start the season in AA. That's probably enough about two immensely talented pitchers who do not pitch for the Minnesota Twins. Let's talk Twins. Back to Seth's questions. I do believe that if a young pitcher put up the types of numbers that Jose Fernandez did, the Twins would move him quickly. However, I can't imagine a scenario where the Twins would be willing to have a player skip both AA and AAA, especially a player that youthful, coming out of high school. The Twins have proven time and again that they will move pitchers, particularly college pitchers who dominate, up the ladder quickly. We saw it with Matt Garza, Kevin Slowey, Brian Duensing, Logan Darnell, Scott Baker and several others. It's harder to know what they would do with that kind of performing high school pitcher, in part, because the Twins have not drafted very many high school pitchers in the early rounds in the last decade. We'll get to those that Seth mentioned, but Hudson Boyd was a supplemental first round pick in 2011. He was the first high school pitcher that the Twins drafted in the first round since 2004 when the drafted high school hurler Kyle Waldrop in the first round. Waldrop got hurt early in his career, and Boyd has really struggled adjusting to the pro game. Brad Radke was the Twins 8th round pick in 1991 out of Tampa. He moved fairly quickly and skipped AAA when he debuted in 1995 with the Twins. However, he was 22 years old already (old, right?). He also doesn't fit the mold of Kershaw and Fernandez. Willie Banks was the 3rd overall pick in the 1987 draft. He moved up one level each season and debuted in July of 1991 at the age of 22. Johnny Ard was the 20th overall pick in the 1988 draft. He put up those Fernandez-like numbers in rookie ball and Low A that same year and was very good the next two seasons before being traded. Pat Mahomes put up some very impressive numbers after he was the Twins 8th round pick in 1988, but he moved up one level early and pitched at AA and AAA in 1991 and debuted in April of 1992 at age 21. Honestly, if a high school drafted pitcher moves up one level each season and debuts in the big leagues at 22 years old, that is a pretty fast track. But it's nowhere near the Fernandez/Kershaw path. So, let's consider the pitchers Seth referenced. Jose (JO) Berrios - As a 19 year old, Berrios went 7-7 with a 3.99 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP. In 103.2 innings, he walked 40 and struck out 100. I like those strikeout numbers, but his odds of making it to the big leagues at 20 is pretty unlikely. He will turn 20 in May, so 2014 is his 20 year old season. That said, if he were to be with the Twins very early in 2015, he could debut at 20. I would think that the Twins would start Berrios in Ft. Myers in 2014, but there is a chance that he could make a few more starts in Cedar Rapids. There is an outside chance that he could finish 2014 with a couple of starts in AA. I think more likely he ends 2014 in Ft. Myers and spends all of 2015 in New Britain. I think if all goes well, he could debut in 2016, his age-22 season. Stephen Gonsalves - The Twins fourth round pick in 2013 was very impressive in his professional debut in the GCL and Elizabethton. He has the size and stuff to move up more quickly than many. However, he turns 20 years old early next July. So, simply put, he won't be the next age-20 superstar, but I believe he could move up quickly. I think he could be one that will spend all of 2014 in Cedar Rapids. I think he could get up to New Britain in 2015 and debut in 2016, at the age of 22. However, that is also very aggressive. Kohl Stewart - For what it's worth (and based on Willie Banks, it's not worth a whole lot), Stewart was drafted earlier in his draft than Fernandez and Kershaw were in theirs. He is the type of athlete and has the pitches to be a guy who will move pretty quickly, if he remains healthy. Unfortunately, his professional debut was ended by a sore shoulder. However, assuming he is healthy going into next season, he should start the season in Cedar Rapids (or at least get there when it warms up!). For him to meet the Fernandez path, he would have to dominate in Cedar Rapids and Ft. Myers in 2014 and debut with the Twins in 2015. Likely? Not really. Possible? I guess. That said, again if healthy, Stewart will likely move quickly, though I would expect him to spend all of 2014 in Cedar Rapids (just like I expected Byron Buxton to do in 2013!). He could pitch at two levels in 2015, and like the others, if things go well, he could debut in mid-2016, at the age of 21. Lewis Thorpe - Of course, Thorpe is the one with the highest probability of debuting with a strong 20-year-old season, but he has the furthest to go having just pitched in the GCL this year. He will turn 18 this coming week. If he pitches in Cedar Rapids in 2014, he will actually be ahead of the pace (so to speak) of of Fernandez and Kershaw. He's got tremendous, raw stuff, but the key word there is raw. He's very young, and his innings count may be the biggest deterrent to rushing him. His age-20 season will be 2016, so it's still very difficult to imagine a scenario where he would be up that quickly. It would involve him finishing 2014 in Cedar Rapids, and ending 2015 in New Britain. In that scenario, he could realistically debut as a 20-year-old in 2016. Again, that would be incredibly aggressive. To summarize, things have to play out pretty much perfectly for pitchers to follow the Clayton Kershaw/Jose Fernandez path to the big leagues by 20. It also takes tremendous risk on the part of the team. It assumes that the pitcher not only has the stuff to succeed, but also the heart and the makeup to overcome presumed struggles (though the award winners sure haven't found many struggles to this point). One thing to remember... I would consider a pitcher making it to the big leagues by 23 very good. Getting to the big leagues at 22 is very aggressive. Anything earlier than that is just incredible and very unusual. Joe Mauer debuted days before his 21st birthday. Miguel Sano should debut in 2014. If he debuts before May 11, he will still be 21 years old. If Byron Buxton debuts in 2014, he will be just 20 (and he has moved up at a pace faster than the Mauer path). I have no doubt that the Twins would be willing to move deserving pitchers quickly up the fast track, but I don't believe they would have them skip full-season levels with the exception of AAA. The four pitching examples referenced will most likely not debut by the age of 20, but there is a chance that they will all be big leaguers well before they turn 23. Consider that when Alex Meyer debuts with the Twins sometime in 2014, he will be 24 years old. And, he will likely debut about three years after being drafted. Great question, and there was the Seth-lengthed response to the Twitter question from Seth. ---------------------------------------------------------------- Here are the other questions: From Keprios: What we know so far: Rochester: Manager - Gene Glynn, Hitting Coach - Tim Doherty, Pitching Coach - Marty Mason --- No change from last year. Ft. Myers: Manager - Doug Mientkeiwicz, Hitting Coach - Jim Dwyer, Pitching Coach - Gary Lucas Cedar Rapids: Manager - Jake Mauer, Hitting Coach - Tommy Watkins, Pitching Coach - Ivan Arteaga. New Britain's coaching staff should be announced in the next week, and the Elizabethton and GCL coaches will be named at a later date. So the only change we know of at this time is that Gary Lucas and Ivan Arteaga flip-flopped pitching coach roles. Gary Lucas is a terrific pitching coach and moves up a level. Arteaga has been in the organization a long time too and did some really good things with some of the Miracle pitchers in 2013. However, in 2014, there is a good chance that big pitching prospects Yorman Landa, Felix Jorge and Randy Rosario will pitch in Cedar Rapids, so having Arteaga there makes a lot of sense. It will be interesting to see if any changes are made in New Britain and the rookie leagues. From jimaaa: The additional $25 million each team receives is because of the new TV deals with ESPN, Fox and the MLB Network. Those deals for for multiple years, so they will get that $25 million each of those years. And then a heads up, it's most likely those contracts will be even larger, and teams will likely get even more money to spend. Any thoughts or questions? Seth On Radio If you're up and about on Saturday morning, I will be a guest on Steve's Sports Saturday on am1100 in Fargo. Former NFL (Buffalo Bills) star and NDSU star and Detroit Lakes resident Phil Hansen will also be on the show. It is on from 9-11 (central time) and you can listen online here.

As has been mentioned, the Twins are likely to be linked to many names over the next couple of months. One name I think we will hear a lot about is lefty Scott Kazmir. In 2013 with Cleveland he went 10-9 with a 4.04 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP. There is certainly a lot of risk, but he will be 30 through the 2014 season. He made strides in the 2013 season that might make some believe that he could take yet another step forward in 2014. Considering where he was the last couple of seasons, the fact that Kazmir is expected to get a multi-year deal at around $8-9 million per year is really quite remarkable. Victor Zambrano for Scott Kazmir? If you ever wanted to know what kind of crazy used to happen at that July trade deadline, and possibly why it doesn’t happen as often any more, look no further than this July, 2003 trade between the Mets and the Rays. Zambrano was a back-of-the-rotation guy that apparently the Mets thought could take them to the playoffs, and Kazmir was a Top 10 prospect in all baseball, blessed with an upper-90s fastball. To no one’s surprise, Kazmir became a star with the Devil Rays. He went 10-9 with a 3.77 ERA as a rookie in 2005, though he was raw and led the league with 100 walks in 186 innings. By 2006, he led the league with 239 strikeouts in 206.2 innings. He never had pinpoint control, but he was young and continuing to improve. From that 2005 rookie season through his age-24 season in 2008, he never posted an ERA over that season’s 3.77. However, in 2009, at age 25, he had a 5.92 ERA when he was dealt to the Angels in August. He ended the season fine, but in 2010, he went 9-15 with a 5.94 ERA in 28 starts. In 2011, he made one appearance for the Angels before being sent down to AAA Salt Lake. There, he made five starts and in 15.1 combined innings, he was 0-5 with a 17.02 ERA before being released. In 2012, he got an opportunity in his home state of Texas, playing for the Sugar Land Skeeters of the independent Atlantic League. In 14 starts for former Twins third baseman Gary Gaetti, he went 3-6 with a 5.34 ERA. Certainly not the kind of showing you would hope for from a guy with his history. I mean, he was the Game 1 starter for the Rays in the 2008 World Series. But, as you know, things have changed. The lefty went to Puerto Rico and, although he wasn’t throwing in the upper-90s any more, the reports were that he looked good, and was throwing strikes. So, Cleveland gave him a minor league contract with the opportunity to make their roster. He pitched well in spring training and earned a spot on Cleveland’s roster. He got hurt late in spring and made one start for Columbus before coming up to the big leagues again. Kazmir was good in 2013. He went 10-9 and posted the 4.04 ERA. His WHIP was a little high, at 1.32, but he had a solid return. Certainly a nice season considering where he had been. His 2.7 BB/9 rate was the lowest of his career. He also pitched well against the Twins. Regarding Kazmir, Twins manager Ron Gardenhire said, “When he was in Tampa, he was young and his body flew everywhere. He’s definitely in more control and command of the strike zone. You don’t see him flying all over. I remember him back there, glove flailing all over the place and the ball coming out at 98, consistently, but missing the strike zone. On his good days, you had no chance. He’s definitely in more command of his body and control of his plate. Now more than ever. The ball has a certain little jump at the end that really jumps on you. Nice little cutter. Decent little change up. His fastball looks like you should get to it, but it jumps. Good for him. He’s worked really hard to get back and I’d say he’s a really good pitcher.” Earlier in the week, I wrote about having appropriate expectations during rumor season and particularly when looking at the top pitchers from this year’s free agent class. Each one of them have risks and/or injuries in their recent history. Scott Kazmir will sign with someone and be a big risk. As much as Ubaldo Jimenez had been bad for several years before 2013, Kazmir had been bad enough to get released by a team that owed him $12 million and he ended up pitching poorly in the Atlantic League. However, like Jimenez, Kazmir has the ability to miss bats and that makes him very intriguing. His 4.04 ERA is alright, but his 3.16 xFIP is very impressive. In 158 innings, he struck out 162 batters. Kazmir is very intriguing. The Twins Daily Offseason Handbook projected two years and $18 million for Kazmir. I think I would jump all over that. What do you think? How hard should the Twins go after Kazmir?

The baseball offseason can be a lot of fun for rumor mongers. It is always interesting to hear what rumors are going around, particularly about the Minnesota Twins. Maybe it’s the cynic in me, but I have to take everything I read in the offseason with a little grain of salt, at least until things have gone a little further. For instance, we heard last week that the Twins have already talked to agents about several pitchers including Bronson Arroyo and Phil Hughes. I read that and immediately think, “Yeah, no surprise on either of those.” But what does it mean? [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Terry Ryan likely has talked to most agents (or at least agencies) already this offseason. In doing so, he probably is getting a feel for what they're thinking about all their clients. This is likely something that every GM in baseball has already done. Then we read that the Twins have asked to review the medical reports of Johan Santana. Guess what? It’s likely most teams in baseball have requested that paperwork. It doesn’t necessarily indicate that the Twins and Santana are close to any deals. My assumption is no fewer than 28 teams will at least have a conversation about the former Twins Cy Young recipient. The day the Twins and Joe Mauer announce he is going to move to first base, they are linked to Jarrod Saltalamacchia. I love reading stuff like that. I mean, it’s fun to read the hometown nine linked to such a big (and long) name. “Salty” has been very good. But, when the Twins have a guy like Josmil Pinto very nearly ready to post a .750 OPS in Target Field, does it make sense to give a catcher a four year deal worth 8 figures each year? I can see them adding a veteran to a one year deal to split time with Pinto, or even give Pinto another half-season in Rochester. I’d be perfectly fine with giving a one year deal to someone like AJ Pierzynski or John Buck, or any of several veteran catchers. I find all of it fascinating, and I enjoy dissecting each rumor, putting it to a test in my mind to see if there is anything worthy of excitement. With the General Manager’s meetings going on this week, a lot of those rumors will start up. Little, if anything of note, will happen during the week, but it may set the table for the annual Winter Meetings in early December. My favorite rumors may be those where we hear what a player is expecting or asking for as a free agent. In the last week, it came out that Ervin Santana was looking for five years and at least $100 million. Ricky Nolasco was looking for five years and $80 million. Sure, those are the numbers the agents and players want, but will they get them? I guess it’s like when you were younger and walking through the toy section at the store with your parents. It doesn’t hurt to ask for the really cool, spendy toys, but generally speaking, the parents will say no. Except this offseason, will 30 GMs all balk at this crazy types of numbers? Well, I guess we will find out. We know that each team is expected to get $25 million in additional revenue from the television deals. 52% of that is about $13 million. So, there are extra funds, but will teams just give that money to one player or will it be spread over a few players, or will it just be used to pay arbitration-eligible players? I guess we will find out. I do think a little sanity check is needed when it comes to a few of these top starting pitching free agents. ERVIN SANTANA After a horrible 2012 with the Angels, Santana was traded (given away) to the Royals. He put together a very solid season in 2013. He will be 31 years old in December. Stats since 2006: ERA – 4.28, 5.76, 3.49, 5.03, 3.92, 3.38, 5.16, 3.24 ERA+ - 106, 79, 127, 87, 102, 111, 74, 127 IP – 204, 150, 219, 139.2, 222.2, 228.2, 178, 211 WHIP – 1.23, 1.55, 1.12, 1.48, 1.32, 1.22, 1.27, 1.14 K/9 – 6.2, 7.6, 8.8, 6.9, 6.8, 7.0, 6.7, 6.9 Santana certainly put himself in a good position for a new contract, but if we’re being honest, he’s no Anibal Sanchez. A year ago, Sanchez signed with the Tigers for 5 years and $85 million. Sanchez was also about three years younger when he signed his deal. Santana has been healthy for the most part. He has value. I know a lot of Twins fans want to see a guy who can miss bats. Though Santana’s strikeout rate would be higher than most Twins pitchers, he is far from a strikeout pitcher. He has eaten a lot of innings for most of his career and has really been good in two of his last three years. I think that the Twins (and any other team) would be crazy to give him more than four years, but he will likely get a fifth year. There’s no way he should make more than $16 million per season, but I would expect he will get at least $18 million. He will probably get five years and $90 million. The team that signs him will likely be looking to get rid of the contract by year three. UBALDO JIMENEZ I have not yet read any rumors on what Jimenez’s side is requesting. I’m certain he’ll be looking for at least $16 million a year for four years. Hey, it’s understandable for him to ask for those kind of dollars. He was very good in 2013, in his contract year. He even struck out more than a batter an inning. Jimenez will turn 30 in January. Stats since 2008: ERA – 3.99, 3.47, 2.88, 4.68, 5.40, 3.30 ERA+ - 118, 136, 161, 93, 72, 114 IP – 198.2, 218, 221.2, 188.1, 176.2, 182.2 WHIP – 1.44, 1.23, 1.16, 1.40, 1.61, 1.33 K/9 – 7.8, 8.2, 8.7, 8.6, 7.3, 9.6 FB Velocity – 94.9, 96.1, 96.1, 93.5, 91.7 Again, Jimenez was pretty good in 2013, but even then, he gave up a bunch of base runners thanks to walking 3.9 batters per nine innings (4.0 BB/9 career rate). The drop in fastball velocity has to lead to concern for injury going forward. Frankly, he has not been a great pitcher since the All-Star game in 2010. I can see him getting a four year contract at $16 million per year. That would scare me as a Twins fan to no end. Three years, maybe up to $36 million is where I would feel comfortable with the risk-reward and even then I would be immensely nervous. RICKY NOLASCO Nolasco spent a lot of time in relative anonymity with the Marlins. He has been a guy that people have thought would take the next step for several years. He really just hasn’t, and yet, some of his peripherals look very good. He will turn 31 in December. Stats since 2008: ERA – 3.52, 5.06, 4.51, 4.67, 4.48, 3.70 ERA+ - 124, 85, 92, 84, 91, 101 xFIP – 3.69, 3.23, 3.37, 3.55, 4.17, 3.58 IP – 212.1, 185, 157.2, 206, 191, 199.1 WHIP – 1.10, 1.25, 1.28, 1.40, 1.37, 1.21 K/9 – 7.9, 9.5, 8.4, 6.5, 5.9, 7.4 FB – 91.2, 91.5, 91.2, 90.5, 90.0, 90.3 Although his ERAs haven’t looked great, his xFIP has consistently been around a full run less than his ERA. He walks just 2.1 per nine inning. His fastball velocity has dropped, but minimally. Again, if you look at his strikeout rate and his velocity, he is not the kind of guy many visualize when they think of a $15 million pitcher. I think Nolasco is a guy I would feel comfortable going to four years with, but maybe at $13 or $14 million year, not the $16 million he is looking for. I’d feel OK about a four year deal between $52 and $56 million. At that price, he would likely have a few suitors, which means he may get that fifth year and the average annual rate may move up a bit. MASAHIRO TANAKA Some may have various opinions based on what MLB and Japan work out in a new posting system, but rumors earlier indicated his posting fee would be upwards of $75 million, maybe more. Let me remind you, under the current system, that means a team would pay $75 million just to negotiate a contract with Tanaka. That’s in addition to the 6 years and $75 million he might get in a contract. Yes, he was 24-0 with a 1.27 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP this season. Yes, he just turned 25. Yes, in his last three seasons he has BB/9 rates of 1.1, 1.0 and 1.4. Yes, he’s got talent and he most likely will be good. Yes, there’s no guarantee at all. I’m certainly comfortable with the 6 years and $75 million or so. But, those numbers guarantee nothing. Yu Darvish was certainly good in his second season in the States after coming from Japan. In 2013, he went 13-9 with a 2.83 ERA. Through two seasons, he has a 3.34 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP. For comparison’s sake, in Daisuke Matsuzaka’s second season in the States, he went 18-3 with a 2.90 ERA. Like any pitcher, there is no certainty Darvish won’t follow the Dice-K path. Tanaka could be great, but the change to starting every fifth day instead of every sixth day is always an adjustment. Tanaka may be very good, but would he be worth 6 years and a total of $150 million? Maybe. I guess I would rather take my chances and sign Ricky Nolasco and Phil Hughes (or another starter who could get $20-30 million packages), and you could still sign a Saltalamacchia or another hitter as well. ------------------------------------------- I have no problem with the concept of the Twins spending. I just think fans need to understand these guys that are likely to get 4-5 year contracts worth $60 to $100 million are not the sure-fire aces their contracts will imply. If the Twins sign one of them to crazy money, I’ll hope like crazy he stays healthy and pitches consistently well. I just don’t see an arm in this free agent class that is worth breaking the bank for. Thankfully we have this comment section so in the years to come we can all go back and remember what we said, what we would have offered and stand by those comments over the life of these contracts.