Seth Stohs

Probably a little, though the fact that he could be a very dominant, 98-99 mph throwing reliever keeps him this high. He needs to work on his control, and I definitely hope that he does get the opportunity to start in 2014 and maybe even further. He needs to work on control and secondary pitches, so starting will give him more opportunities to do just that.

I don't know that its' a "big deal." I think it's a great opportunity for the players who get to play there. I think the Twins can use it, particularly on Adam, to have more data points to evaluate (specifically whether or not he is added to the Rule 5). I don't think an AFL assignment affects a prospect ranking.

If he becomes Chris Young, he should be ranked much higher on this list. Young has had some injuries, but he's also had some solid seasons in the big leagues.

Very good points, JC...

This discussion is really the thing that makes prospect rankings so difficult. Age-to-level of competition is one piece of that formula. You guys have outlined that. Ceiling is another aspect, and I would say maybe "perceived ceiling" is a better way of putting that. We've all heard it, and if you've seen Navarreto, the comparisons to Salvador Perez are legit. Will he get there? Who knows? Garver may not have that type of upside, but his ceiling is solid major league catcher. Garver is probably more likely to reach his ceiling than Navarreto is. It's also possible neither of them see AA (though I feel pretty good about both being able to do that, but who knows). Similar discussion can be had about Levi Michael and Aderlin Mejia. Mejia is a little bit younger. I see both as utility guys in the big leagues though I think that Michael would have a better chance to be an adequate start in MLB. If healthy, I think Michael has higher upside even though he's a year or so older. Injuries have been a problem for him. So, keep the questions and discussion rolling. That's the fun of it. Like I wrote in the comments yesterday, I hope all will take all of this information and develop your own lists too. It's fun!

1500 ESPN's Phil Mackey wrote an in-depth article on the deterioration of the Twins. He provides several areas os accountability for the struggles, players, manager, scouting ,and more. Check it out and discuss.

Yesterday, we began looking at my preliminary Top 50 Twins prospects list by reviewing prospects 41-50. Today, we’ll look at the next ten prospects, 31-40. Again, this list is a combination of hard throwers and young, athletic hitters from around the diamond.Reminders: This list is preliminary. Following research for the Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook 2015, as well as your feedback, I’ll provide my final Top 30 prospects list. Players eligible to be on this list include players who remain eligible for Rookie of the Year voting in 2015. That is to say, hitters with less than 130 at-bats and pitchers with less than 50 innings. On last night’s Twins Hangouts, we discussed in a little more depth the choices for prospects 41-50. You can listen to that here. Top Prospects 31-40 #40 – Aderlin Mejia – 22 – IF – New Britain Rock Cats/Ft. Myers Miracle Mejia signed with the Twins out of the Dominican in 2010 and slowly worked his way up. As we have written many times before, he was at extended spring training to start the 2013 season (and likely would have gone to Elizabethton) when there was a need with the Miracle. He got an opportunity and took advantage of it. He hit .308 in 75 games. He began the 2014 season at New Britain, but after committing seven errors in 15 games he was sent back to Ft. Myers. He played all over. He played 45 games at second base, 24 at shortstop, 19 at third base and six at first base. Mejia is a speedy middle infielder with little power. #39 – Jorge Fernandez – 20 – C – Elizabethton Twins Fernandez was the Twins seventh round pick in 2012 out of high school in Puerto Rico. He spent two seasons in the GCL before moving up to Elizabethton in 2014. He hit .321/.361/.440 (.802) in 33 games with the E-Twins, with nine extra base hits. Fernandez is 6-3 and 190 pounds. He is very athletic, and there has been talk at times about moving him to the outfield. He threw out five of 13 base stealers (38%). He should move up to Cedar Rapids to start 2015. #38 – Mason Melotakis – 23 – LHP – Ft. Myers Miracle/New Britain Rock Cats Melotakis was the Twins second round pick in 2012 out of Northwestern State University where he pitched out of the bullpen. In 2013, he made 18 starts for Cedar Rapids. In 2014, he moved up to Ft. Myers where he made just two starts before he was moved into the bullpen. As a starter, he would sit 90-92. Out of the bullpen, he can reach back and hit 97. As important, he has developed his secondary pitches which should really him out of the bullpen. In early July, he was promoted to New Britain where he pitched in 13 games and struck out 17 while walking three in 16 innings. However, he missed time with a sore elbow. He was supposed to pitch in the Arizona Fall League, but he was still experiencing soreness in the elbow, so they shut him down. If healthy, he could see time with the Twins in 2015. #37 – Jason Adam – 23 – RHP – Northwest Arkansas/Omaha/New Britain Adam came to the Twins in the on July 31 from the Royals in exchange for Josh Willingham. He has worked primarily as a starter coming up in the minor leagues. He began this season in AA with 18 starts. He went 4-8 with a 5.03 ERA. He was promoted to AAA where he made eight appearances out of the bullpen. After the Twins acquired him, they said that he would be given the opportunity to start with the Twins organization. He is blessed with a fastball that reaches 94. He will pitch in the Arizona Fall League. #36 – Michael Cederoth – 21 – RHP – Elizabethton Twins Cederoth was the Twins 3rd round pick in 2014 out of San Diego State. In college, he was given a couple opportunities to start, but that didn’t go well. He was much more successful out of the bullpen. A 98 mph fastball in college will get a lot of outs. When he signed with the Twins, they allowed him to start at Elizabethton. In 45.2 innings, he gave up 41 hits, walked 18 and struck out 42. Long-term, my assumption is he’ll move to the bullpen though he will get the opportunity to start. #35 – Brian Navarreto – 19 – C – Elizabethton Twins Navarreto was the Twins sixth round pick in 2013 out of high school in Florida. He is a 6-4, 220 pound catcher with a very strong arm. He also has immense power. When I was in Ft. Myers in spring training, I saw him hit a long home run off of JO Berrios in an intra-squad game. He struggled in Elizabethton, though he missed some time with minor injury. He hit .194/.241/.370 with eight doubles and three home runs. #34 – John Curtiss – 21 – RHP – Elizabethton Twins/Cedar Rapids Kernels The Twins used their sixth round pick on the right-hander. He was the closer for the University of Texas during the 2014 season that culminated in a trip to the College World Series in Omaha. It was his first full season back from Tommy John surgery. Upon signing with the Twins, he was sent to Elizabethton where he made six starts after three relief appearances. He went 2-1 with a 2.30 ERA. In 31.1 innings, he walked seven and struck out 41. Following the E-Twins playoff series, Curtiss was promoted to Cedar Rapids and made a start for the Kernels in Round 2 of their playoff run. He threw five scoreless innings in a no-decision. He will be given the opportunity to start. #33 – Aaron Slegers – 22 – RHP – Cedar Rapids Kernels/Ft. Myers Miracle It was an up and down 2014 season for the 6-10 Slegers. He got off to a quick start in Cedar Rapids before really struggling. However, he turned things around and ended the season with three starts in Ft. Myers where he went 2-1 with a 3.32 ERA in 19 innings. Not overpowering, Slegers mixes three pitches. He also has very good control considering his long arms. He threw 132.1 innings before reaching his innings limit and being shut down. #32 – Levi Michael – 23 – 2B – Ft. Myers Miracle/New Britain Rock Cats Michael was the Twins first round pick in 2011 out of the University of North Carolina. Unfortunately, he has spent much of his career to this point injured. Finally healthy, Michael was able to play most every day for Ft. Myers, and he hit. He hit .305/.375/.395 (.770) with 12 extra base hits in 45 games. However, he fouled a ball of his foot and missed nearly two months. After a short return to the Miracle, he was promoted to New Britain where he hit .340/.444/.358 (.803) in 15 games. Although 2014 was his third year of pro ball after three years in college, he is still just 23 years old. He needs to stay healthy, but 2014 gave fans a glimpse that he could be a solid utility guy or even a regular second baseman if needed in another year. #31 – Mitch Garver – 23 – C – Cedar Rapids Kernels Garver was drafted by the Twins in the ninth round of the 2013 draft out of the University of New Mexico. He had been the runner up for the Johnny Bench Award for top collegiate catcher. In 2014, he spent the entire season in Cedar Rapids where he became a force in the middle of the Kernels lineup. He was my choice for Twins minor league hitter of the year after he hit .298/.399/.481 (.880) with 29 doubles, 16 homers and 79 RBI. He played well behind the plate as well. He threw out 32% of would-be base stealers. So, what do you think of Part 2, Prospects 31-40? Next up will be prospects 21-30. Click here to view the article

And that is why I do a top 50 rather than the standard top 10s or top 20s.

First, this is awesome... Second, Jamie Ogden is such a great dude! I haven't been to Line Drive Sports, but I would encourage people to go there if you have a chance. I like the 100 mph challenge concept. I remember when I was good at baseball, like 20 years ago, hitting 87-89 wasn't so bad, but then I saw a guy throwing 92-93 and it was incredible the difference. I can't even imagine hitting 98-100. And, I have caught guys that throw 90, and it isn't so bad. Framing is not too difficult... but I imagine 100 is unreal because it's on you so quickly. Consider that someone as tall as Alex Meyer is throwing 97-99 from closer than someone who might be 6-2 also. This is fun to watch and see Dan's reaction... and Jamie's! As for pitch framing. I like it as a stat, but I've always said it's flawed. I think that there are just so many variables that go into it. Framing is without question a skill. The trick is whether you can do it in such a way to trick the umpire and get him to call it.

Which speaks to the need to develop those guys rather than pay them when they're 30-31 years old and on the downhill slope of their careers.

And, because I hate this hatred for a phrase " pitch to contact" more than just about anything. There isn't a team in the major leagues that isn't telling their pitchers to throw strikes and hit the corners. The Twins don't hate strikeouts. They do hate walks. I don't think this is unusual. The Twins have had pitchers in recent years who miss the corners and get hit hard. And, as others have pointed out, the defense isn't real strong to go with that. There will be hits. Hughes is doing what the Twins would want... He throws strikes. Most of the time they're on the corners. He's pitching to contact yet he has the ability to miss bats. He is striking out 8.1 per nine, the most he's had in 5 years (since he was a bullpen guy). Trevor May can miss bats, but after his first couple of starts, he couldn't throw strikes. They returned the focus to throwing strikes. He got hit a bit, made some adjustments, and now he's striking out quite a few too. In his first three starts, he walked 13 and struck out 3 in 9 innings. In his 6 starts since, he has walked 8 and struck out 34 in 30.2 innings. I bet the Twins are just fine with those ratios... I bet every team in baseball would agree. It's not that they don't want strikeouts. Pitchers just have to have the ability to do that. I'm no Rick Anderson supporter, but "Pitch to Contact" is not the issue.

The Twins aren't going to trade Nolasco. His value is too low. They wouldn't get anything for him and the Twins won't/shouldn't pay anything of it if they did. Nolasco has a track record to be a solid #3 starter. I say let him come back next year and start over. Forget this year. Lots of pitchers have a bad year, an anomoly. He's been solid for a long time. He'll make the adjustments. And, of course he's going to be in the starting rotation to start next season. There's no question about that, and that's the way it should be.

I'm just kind of curious what Byron Buxton and Nick Gordon are doing. I saw Buxton cheering on the guys during one of your videos. Is Gordon able to do any fielding or throwing yet? How about lewis thorpe? My assumption is that he isn't doing bullpens. How about Kohl Stewart? Is he doing bullpens and stuff? Shoulder seems OK?

You may be right. I'll be curious to get some more reports on what he was throwing in CR. Was he just cold? he was very good in ETown, but he was last year too. Also consider all of the SPs that were promoted to CR from ET (Hu, Gonsalves, Thorpe and Romero before that, Batts, Curtiss)...

I know where I'll have him in this preliminary list... Any guesses? "Already a C/DH" - This is a positive thing. He is a pretty solid catcher who can hit well enough that they wanted him DHing many of the games he wasn't behind the plate. The helps from a prospect list standpoint.

There can definitely be discussion. I think I had May as my #6 for the starting pitcher of the year (in part due to missing a month, I guess). I had Wheeler, Rogers, Duffey and Hu ahead of him. I think Berrios was an easy choice, but I like the discussion for sure.

Just to point this out... I'm not claiming my list is perfect. I like to, when the season is over, put together this preliminary Top 50 list to create a bunch of discussion. As I (along with Jeremy and Cody) write the Prospect Handbook, we learn a lot more about these players, look deeper into the stats, get scouting reports from various people. And, when the book comes out, we'll each include our new Top 30. I definitely encourage people to take this list and alter it and create your own as well. There's nothing wrote with Hicks and Lee being Top 30 guys. They're both legit big league prospects if things go well. Vargas is well over the 130 at bat limit. May should remain under the 50 IP limit, so he'll be on here.

That's why he is still in the 40s. If it were about just numbers, he'd probably be a bit higher. That said, a player can only play against the competition he's playing against, right? It just all factors in.

I was thinking the same thing... There are no less than 5 of these guys that I feel like I should have higher... but I don't know that I could put them ahead of the guys I have in the 31-40 range... But I think this shows the depth of the organization when these types of prospects are ranked this low.

Good suggestion. I just added the ages into the header for each player. It's a good idea because it adds some perspective.

Since the end of minor league season, we have handed out some minor league awards. On Monday, the Twins announced that Kennys Vargas and JO Berrios were named their choices for Twins minor league hitter and pitcher of the year in the minor leagues. Today I’m going to start a preliminary Top 50 Twins prospects list and welcome your feedback. Today, I’ll post Part 1: Prospects 41-50. Players eligible to be on this list include players who remain eligible for Rookie of the Year voting in 2015. That is to say, hitters with less than 130 at bats and pitchers with less than 50 innings.(The list is preliminary. Following research for the Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook 2015, I’ll provide my final Top 30 prospects list.) Top Prospects 41-50 #50 – Lewin Diaz - 17 – 1B – Dominican Summer League The 17-year-old was the Twins bonus baby when he signed for over $1 million in 2013. In 2014, he made his professional debut in the DSL. In 43 games, he hit .257/.385/.451 (.836) with 13 doubles and five homers. He walked 26 times and struck out 24 times. Still young, he has immense power potential. He should make his debut next season in the States, likely in the GCL. #49 – Ryan Eades - 22 – RHP – Cedar Rapids Kernels The Twins second round pick in 2013 out of powerhouse LSU, Eades spent his entire first full season in Cedar Rapids. It was a disappointing season for the 22-year-old right-hander. He went 10-11 with a 5.14 ERA in 25 starts. In 133 innings, he gave up 147 hits, walked 50 and struck out just 98. Eades has three solid pitches. He just really struggles with consistency, not only from game-to-game but often from inning-to-inning. #48 – Tanner English - 21 – OF – Elizabethton Twins/Cedar Rapids Kernels English was the Twins 11th round pick this June after three seasons at the University of South Carolina. He had previously been a 13th round pick out of high school in 2011. He signed late and then missed some time with a shoulder injury. However, at Elizabethton, the 21-year-old hit .316/.439/.474 (.913) with 10 extra base hits in 32 games. He was then promoted to Cedar Rapids for their second round playoff series. He is a good combination of power, speed and defense. #47 – Jonatan Hinojosa - 22 – IF – Cedar Rapids Kernels/Elizabethton Twins Hinojosa is all about speed and defense. The infielder has a good glove at all three spots. He is 5-11 and just over 150 pounds. He served a 50-game PED suspension early in the season and came back to play in Elizabethton. He was promoted back to Cedar Rapids where he finished with 20 strong games. He hit .341/.378/.494 (.872) in 92 plate appearances. Combined, he stole 23 bases in 27 attempts. #46 – Max Murphy - 21 – OF – Elizabethton Twins/Cedar Rapids Kernels Murphy is from Robbinsdale, Minnesota, and the Twins drafted him in the ninth round this year out of Bradley. Murphy is just shy of 6-0 and compactly built. He has good power and it was on display at Elizabethton. He was named the Appalachian League hitter of the year when he hit .378/.483/.723 (1.206) with seven doubles, two triples and 10 homers in 35 games. He was then promoted to Cedar Rapids where he came down to earth, though he did hit seven doubles and four homers in 32 games. #45 – Dalton Hicks - 24 – 1B – Ft. Myers Miracle Hicks was the Twins 17th round pick in 2012 out of Central Florida. He has been a big run producer since signing with the Twins. His grand slam in extra innings gave the E-Twins and Appalachian League championship in 2012. Hicks led minor league baseball in RBI in 2013 with 110. He spent 2014 in Ft. Myers where he hit .262/.344/.407 (.751) with 24 doubles, 11 home runs and 76 RBI. At 6-5 and about 250 pounds, Hicks is lumbering, but he has tremendous power. #44 – Jason Kanzler - 24 – OF – Cedar Rapids Kernels/Ft. Myers Miracle The 24-year-old spent four years at the University of Buffalo where he won two college Gold Glove awards. Kanzler’s can play above-average defense at all three outfield positions. He strikes out a lot, but he packs a lot of power. In 84 games at Cedar Rapids, he hit .286/.334/.448 (.782) with eight doubles, eight triples and nine home runs. He moved up to Ft. Myers where in 27 games he hit .267/.476/.430 (.906). His two-run homer in the tenth inning of the FSL championship series Game 4 gave the Miracle their first championship with the Twins. Overall, he had 32 extra base hits. He also stole 27 bats in 34 attempts combined. And, of course, we must Feat the Stache! #43 – Rainis Silva - 18 – C – GCL Twins After a year in the DSL in which he hit just .223 (.539 OPS), Silva came to the States right away in spring training. At 18 in the GCL, he hit .270/.294/.342 (.636) with nine doubles. He ended the season quite strong though. He is known more for his defense. He has good size and a strong arm. He threw out 39% of would-be base stealers in 2014. He also spent 10 games at first base and had just one error. #42 – Felix Jorge - 20 – RHP – Cedar Rapids Kernels/Elizabethton Twins It was an interesting season for Felix Jorge. He began the season at Cedar Rapids but struggled immensely, posting a 2-5 record with a 9.00 ERA in 39 innings (12 games). He was sent back to Elizabethton where he was the Appalachian League Pitcher of the Year. He went 4-2 with a 2.59 ERA. He is 6-2 and lanky. As he grows, he should add more velocity. 2015 will be a big year for Jorge as he attempts to show he can get Midwest League hitters out. #41 – Brett Lee - 24 – LHP – Ft. Myers Miracle Lee was the Twins 10th round pick in 2011 out of St. Petersburg College. He was a Florida State League All-Star in 2014 when he went 10-5 with a 2.45 ERA. He has good stuff and good control. However, his strikeout rate has dropped quickly. He struck out 9.9 batters per nine innings in 2012 at Elizabethton. In 2013 in Cedar Rapids, he struck out 6.9 per nine innings. In 2014, he struck out just 4.6 per nine. He has good stuff, so I suspect the numbers will continue to be solid and his strikeout rate will come up some. So, what do you think of Part 1, Prospects 41-50? Next up will be prospects 31-40. Click here to view the article

The Twins announced this afternoon that 1B Kennys Vargas and SP JO Berrios were named their minor league hitter and pitcher of the year, respectively. At Twins Daily, my choices for the awards were Mitch Garver (Hitter), JO Berrios (Starting Pitcher), Brandon Peterson (Relief Pitcher) of the year. It's hard to argue with either choice. My choice of Mitch Garver had as much to do with the fact that he spent the entire season playing well in the minor leagues. Vargas's 2014 minor league season ended on July 31 when he was promoted to the Twins following a six-week slump in New Britain. However, Vargas was my #2 choice and is deserving. I don't think anyone would question JO Berrios as the choice for top pitcher of the year.

I agree with this comment. A year ago, I defended keeping Gardy on because I really thought (and still think) that last September may have been the valley, the low point in terms of talent on a roster for the Twins. This year's record will be about the same as last year and yet there are more reasons for optimism going into next year because Santana, Vargas, Arcia and May are getting playing time and Buxton, Sano and Meyer are still coming. My support for keeping Gardy isn't so much about agreeing that he's absolutely the right guy to bring along the young players, but about people making some assumption that change is good just because change is good. The Braves firing Frank Wren is ridiculous. He's done the job well for a long time and now they're going to replace him with someone who likely isn't any better. Why? Seems like change for change sake. If the Twins keep Gardy, I won't necessarily agree with that choice but I won't be upset. If they let him go, I won't be upset and yet I won't expect the next manager to be the reason that the Twins improve either.