Seth Stohs

Over the next several months, Twins fans are going to hear a lot about the June MLB draft, and for good reason. The Twins have the #2 overall pick and five picks in the Top 100. Coming off of a 99 loss season, and having a middle-of-the-pack minor league system, it is important to take advantage of the draft. In coming months, you’ll read names like Mark Appel, Lucas Giolito, Devin Marrero, Byron Buxton and Mike Zunino frequently. Today I wanted to look at the draft a little differently. It is said that it usually takes five or six years to start judging a team’s draft. I would contend that it really takes ten years. Consider that some high school players who are drafted don’t get to the big leagues for eight or nine seasons. Consider there are players that don’t sign and go to college for three years before getting drafted again. It takes them several years sometimes. Yes, for the below report, I am going to include players that the Twins drafted but did not sign who made it to the big leagues. Seeing talent, and future big league talent, is what scouting is all about. Some late-round picks haven’t signed and went to college. There are some players that the Twins have redrafted. There are other players that the Twins have drafted but didn’t sign who they have brought in later as free agents or in trades. To start, I’ll give a more detailed look at the Twins 2002 draft and show how many of the 50 draft picks made it to each level. After that, I’ll show how many players from each year’s Twins draft have made it to the big leagues. I’ll go back to 1987 as that is when many of the current Twins scouts and scouting directors began working with the Twins. The 2002 Draft: For the players who were drafted and signed in 2002, 2012 will be their 11th professional season. There is some chance that one or maybe two more players will get a cup of coffee in the big leagues. MLB Players (9): Denard Span (1), Jesse Crain (2), Clete Thomas (5), Pat Neshek (6), Adam Lind (8), Kyle Phillips (10), Evan Meek (11), Jeff Clement (12), Garrett Mock (14). AAA (7): Ricky Barrett (7), Doug Deeds (9), Josh Petersen (24), James Avery (29), Toby Gardenhire (38), Brock Peterson (49), Mike Ballard (50) AA (5): Adam Harben (15), Adam Daniels (19), Danny Matienzo (23), Christian Castorri (34), Kyle Geiger (42) A (10): Bo Pettit (13), Adam Hawes (17), Ryan Schreppel (20), TJ Prunty (21), Justin Keeling (25), Ron Perodin (27), Hasan Rasheed (28), Roberto Martinez (30), Tarrence Pattersen (35), John Cahill (36) Ten players peaked in Rookie Ball, and nine players that didn’t sign did not play in affiliated baseball again. Among them was their 45th round pick, a pitcher from Holy Angels HS in Minnesota named John Stocco, who went to Wisconsin and became their quarterback. TJ Prunty is another St. Paul kid who the Twins drafted out of high school, but he went down to Miami to play football before the Twins drafted him again. Three of the players who have peaked at AAA are still playing. Without looking at all teams for a decade of drafts, it is impossible to put this into context, but my assumption is that this breakdown would put the Twins and their scouts in a positive light. Big Leaguers from Twins Drafts (1987-2001) 2001 (5): Joe Mauer (1), Jose Morales (3), Kevin Cameron (13), Matt Macri (17), Nick Blackburn (29) 2000 (8): Adam Johnson (1), Aaron Heilman (1s), JD Durbin (2), Jason Miller (4), Josh Rabe (11), Jason Kubel (12), Paul Maholm (17), Daniel Davidson (28) 1999 (8): Rob Bowen (2), Justin Morneau (3), Brian Wolfe (6), Brian Slocum (14), Travis Bowyer (20), Willie Eyre (23), Terry Tiffee (26), Pat Neshek (45) 1998 (7): Saul Rivera (9), Mike Gosling (14), JJ Putz (17), Kevin Thompson (18), Juan Padilla (24), Kevin Frederick (34), Tommy Watkins (38) 1997 (7): Michael Cuddyer (1), Matthew LeCroy (1s), Michael Restovich (2), Kevin Frederick (17), JC Romero (21), Adam Johnson (25), Nick Punto (33) 1996 (9): Travis Lee (1), Jacque Jones (2), Chad Allen (4), Michael Ryan (5), Chad Moeller (7), Mike Lincoln (13), Matt Kata (20), Mike Lamb (31), Josh Bard (35) 1995 (6): Mark Redman (1), AJ Hinch (3), Doug Mientkiewicz (5), Mike Moriarity (7), Robert Ramsay (17), Jeff Harris (28) 1994 (7): Todd Walker (1), Travis Miller (1s), Cleatus Davidson (2), AJ Pierzynski (3), Corey Koskie (26), Brandon Puffer (27), Brian Lawrence (39) 1993 (14): Torii Hunter (1), Jason Varitek (1), Dan Perkins (2), Javier Valentin (3), Benj Sampson (4), Kelly Dransfeldt (7), Kevin Ohme (9), Alex Cora (12), Ryan Radmanovich (14), Danny Kolb (17), Shane Bowers (21), Rod Radlosky (22), Emil Brown (27), Lance Carter (41). 1992 (6): Dan Serafini (1), Gus Gandarillos (3), Dan Naulty (14), Scott Watkins (23), Gary Matthews (38), Craig Dingman (50). 1991 (7): David McCarty (1), Scott Stahoviak (1s), Mike Durant (2), LaTroy Hawkins (7), Brad Radke (8), Matt Lawton (13), Tim Davis (34) 1990 (11): Todd Ritchie (1), Midre Cummings (1), Jayhawk Owens (2), Rich Becker (3), Brent Brede (5), James Mouton (8), Pat Meares (12), Jeff Granger (14), Damian Miller (20), Eddie Guardado (21), Brian Raabe (41) 1989 (10): Chuck Knoblauch (1), Denny Neagle (3), Scott Erickson (4), Marty Cordova (10), Dan Mastellar (11), Mike Trombley (14), George Tsamis (15), Derrick White (23), Tim Urbani (29), Denny Hocking (52). 1988 (7): Alan Newman (2), Steve Dunn (4), Pat Mahomes (6), Doug Simons (9), JT Bruett (11), Scott Stahoviak (27), Aaron Sele (37) 1987 (9): Willie Banks (1), Terry Jorgensen (2), Larry Casian (6), Mark Guthrie (7), Shawn Gilbert (12), Chip Hale (17), Dan Smith (22), Bret Boone (28), Craig Paquette (36). Obviously this is only one way to judge a draft. Ideally teams will want an All-Star or two to come out of every draft, but that’s not realistic. The draft and scouting is such an inexact science. It is also such an important part of building a roster and an organization. Not all players are going to be All-Stars, but it is important to have role players too.

Over the next several months, Twins fans are going to hear a lot about the June MLB draft, and for good reason. The Twins have the #2 overall pick and five picks in the Top 100. Coming off of a 99 loss season, and having a middle-of-the-pack minor league system, it is important to take advantage of the draft. In coming months, you’ll read names like Mark Appel, Lucas Giolito, Devin Marrero, Byron Buxton and Mike Zunino frequently. Today I wanted to look at the draft a little differently. It is said that it usually takes five or six years to start judging a team’s draft. I would contend that it really takes ten years. Consider that some high school players who are drafted don’t get to the big leagues for eight or nine seasons. Consider there are players that don’t sign and go to college for three years before getting drafted again. It takes them several years sometimes. Yes, for the below report, I am going to include players that the Twins drafted but did not sign who made it to the big leagues. Seeing talent, and future big league talent, is what scouting is all about. Some late-round picks haven’t signed and went to college. There are some players that the Twins have redrafted. There are other players that the Twins have drafted but didn’t sign who they have brought in later as free agents or in trades. To start, I’ll give a more detailed look at the Twins 2002 draft and show how many of the 50 draft picks made it to each level. After that, I’ll show how many players from each year’s Twins draft have made it to the big leagues. I’ll go back to 1987 as that is when many of the current Twins scouts and scouting directors began working with the Twins. The 2002 Draft: For the players who were drafted and signed in 2002, 2012 will be their 11th professional season. There is some chance that one or maybe two more players will get a cup of coffee in the big leagues. MLB Players (9): Denard Span (1), Jesse Crain (2), Clete Thomas (5), Pat Neshek (6), Adam Lind (8), Kyle Phillips (10), Evan Meek (11), Jeff Clement (12), Garrett Mock (14). AAA (7): Ricky Barrett (7), Doug Deeds (9), Josh Petersen (24), James Avery (29), Toby Gardenhire (38), Brock Peterson (49), Mike Ballard (50) AA (5): Adam Harben (15), Adam Daniels (19), Danny Matienzo (23), Christian Castorri (34), Kyle Geiger (42) A (10): Bo Pettit (13), Adam Hawes (17), Ryan Schreppel (20), TJ Prunty (21), Justin Keeling (25), Ron Perodin (27), Hasan Rasheed (28), Roberto Martinez (30), Tarrence Pattersen (35), John Cahill (36) Ten players peaked in Rookie Ball, and nine players that didn’t sign did not play in affiliated baseball again. Among them was their 45th round pick, a pitcher from Holy Angels HS in Minnesota named John Stocco, who went to Wisconsin and became their quarterback. TJ Prunty is another St. Paul kid who the Twins drafted out of high school, but he went down to Miami to play football before the Twins drafted him again. Three of the players who have peaked at AAA are still playing. Without looking at all teams for a decade of drafts, it is impossible to put this into context, but my assumption is that this breakdown would put the Twins and their scouts in a positive light. Big Leaguers from Twins Drafts (1987-2001) 2001 (5): Joe Mauer (1), Jose Morales (3), Kevin Cameron (13), Matt Macri (17), Nick Blackburn (29) 2000 (8): Adam Johnson (1), Aaron Heilman (1s), JD Durbin (2), Jason Miller (4), Josh Rabe (11), Jason Kubel (12), Paul Maholm (17), Daniel Davidson (28) 1999 (8): Rob Bowen (2), Justin Morneau (3), Brian Wolfe (6), Brian Slocum (14), Travis Bowyer (20), Willie Eyre (23), Terry Tiffee (26), Pat Neshek (45) 1998 (7): Saul Rivera (9), Mike Gosling (14), JJ Putz (17), Kevin Thompson (18), Juan Padilla (24), Kevin Frederick (34), Tommy Watkins (38) 1997 (7): Michael Cuddyer (1), Matthew LeCroy (1s), Michael Restovich (2), Kevin Frederick (17), JC Romero (21), Adam Johnson (25), Nick Punto (33) 1996 (9): Travis Lee (1), Jacque Jones (2), Chad Allen (4), Michael Ryan (5), Chad Moeller (7), Mike Lincoln (13), Matt Kata (20), Mike Lamb (31), Josh Bard (35) 1995 (6): Mark Redman (1), AJ Hinch (3), Doug Mientkiewicz (5), Mike Moriarity (7), Robert Ramsay (17), Jeff Harris (28) 1994 (7): Todd Walker (1), Travis Miller (1s), Cleatus Davidson (2), AJ Pierzynski (3), Corey Koskie (26), Brandon Puffer (27), Brian Lawrence (39) 1993 (14): Torii Hunter (1), Jason Varitek (1), Dan Perkins (2), Javier Valentin (3), Benj Sampson (4), Kelly Dransfeldt (7), Kevin Ohme (9), Alex Cora (12), Ryan Radmanovich (14), Danny Kolb (17), Shane Bowers (21), Rod Radlosky (22), Emil Brown (27), Lance Carter (41). 1992 (6): Dan Serafini (1), Gus Gandarillos (3), Dan Naulty (14), Scott Watkins (23), Gary Matthews (38), Craig Dingman (50). 1991 (7): David McCarty (1), Scott Stahoviak (1s), Mike Durant (2), LaTroy Hawkins (7), Brad Radke (8), Matt Lawton (13), Tim Davis (34) 1990 (11): Todd Ritchie (1), Midre Cummings (1), Jayhawk Owens (2), Rich Becker (3), Brent Brede (5), James Mouton (8), Pat Meares (12), Jeff Granger (14), Damian Miller (20), Eddie Guardado (21), Brian Raabe (41) 1989 (10): Chuck Knoblauch (1), Denny Neagle (3), Scott Erickson (4), Marty Cordova (10), Dan Mastellar (11), Mike Trombley (14), George Tsamis (15), Derrick White (23), Tim Urbani (29), Denny Hocking (52). 1988 (7): Alan Newman (2), Steve Dunn (4), Pat Mahomes (6), Doug Simons (9), JT Bruett (11), Scott Stahoviak (27), Aaron Sele (37) 1987 (9): Willie Banks (1), Terry Jorgensen (2), Larry Casian (6), Mark Guthrie (7), Shawn Gilbert (12), Chip Hale (17), Dan Smith (22), Bret Boone (28), Craig Paquette (36). Obviously this is only one way to judge a draft. Ideally teams will want an All-Star or two to come out of every draft, but that’s not realistic. The draft and scouting is such an inexact science. It is also such an important part of building a roster and an organization. Not all players are going to be All-Stars, but it is important to have role players too.

This is a nice way of looking at it objectively. I've definitely said that I think that the bats they brought in will help.

I'm excited to get out to Beloit a couple of times this year myself!! Should be a fun summer there! Also, Bromberg will be fun to watch this spring and throughout the season. No one has worked has hard. He could really impress this year.

Players with less than three years of major league service time will typically sign one year, two-way contracts. Now that spring training has started, expect many of the Twins players to sign such contracts in the next week. These two-way contracts are for a certain dollar value if the player is in the big leagues, and another (significantly smaller) dollar value if they are playing in the minor leagues. The Two-Way Contract means that a player is EITHER making $X in the big leagues OR $(X – LOTS) in the minor leagues. With Terry Ryan at the helm and so many difficult questions to be answered when the season starts, it appears that the Twins have set up a Two-Way Planning system for the 2012 season. How it plays out will be determined by a series of EITHER/OR scenarios. The biggest EITHER/OR scenario is will the Twins be able to complete for a division title in 2012? We can all make assumptions, but we don’t know, and there are so many factors. FACTORS The health of Joe Mauer The health of Justin Morneau The health of Denard Span The elbow of Scott Baker The durability of Carl Pavano The mindset and performance of Francisco Liriano The improvements of Danny Valencia, Ben Revere and other young players Matt Capps ability to get outs in the 9th 2-5 bullpen arms need to step up and contribute consistently well. Minor Leaguers coming up and contributing when needed throughout the season (Hendriks, Diamond, Gutierrez, Guerra, Waldrop, Oliveros, Benson, Parmelee, Dozier, etc.) Each one of those ten Factors was a factor whether or not the Twins brought in any free agents. If seven or eight of those factors wind up positive for the Twins, they have a chance to compete. NEW VARIABLES Josh Willingham – The outfielder will likely replace the offensive production of Michael Cuddyer and play about as well defensively. He has a career track record of walking a lot, striking out a lot and hitting a bunch of home runs. Jamey Carroll – the middle infielder should help solidify an infield defense that was pretty atrocious last year. He also perfectly profiles as a #2 hitter due to a very good on-base percentage. Ryan Doumit – Likely becomes the team’s #2 starting catcher meaning he should start most of the games that Joe Mauer doesn’t behind the plate. On other days, he should get a lot of time as a DH, at 1B and even in RF. Offensively, he should add plenty of extra base hits. Jason Marquis – Although many Twins fans did not like this acquisition (and I’m not wild about it myself), Marquis has put together a pretty solid career. He was even pretty good last year in Washington (9-5, 3.95 ERA) before being traded to Arizona where he hurt his leg. He strikes out about as many Pavano. Let’s hope that he can eat that many innings! Joel Zumaya - The ultimate in ‘injury risk,’ Zumaya hasn’t pitched in nearly two years. However, he had a good throwing session in front of a lot of scouts. He still throws pretty hard. It will be very interesting to see how the Twins use him and how much he has to contribute. Although none of the above are All-Stars (with the possible exception of Willingham), they are the types of players that will compliment the roster well. The Two-Way Plan All of that background gets us to The Two-Way Plan for July. Because we don’t know for sure how it will play out, they will need to be written as IF/THEN statements. Scenario One IF seven or eight of the factors listed above are going positively, AND the Twins are getting positive performances from their minor leaguers and these new players, AND the team is in contention in mid-July, THEN they will have plenty of payroll flexibility to add a significant piece or two at the deadline, if they choose. Scenario Two However, IF things are not going well, AND they are enduring another year of injuries to key players, AND players are not stepping up as needed, AND the Twins find themselves well out of contention in July, THEN they have accumulated a lot of trade pieces to start a more rapid rebuilding plan. Carl Pavano, Jason Marquis and Francisco Liriano are all free agents at the end of the season. They could be traded. Scott Baker has an option at just over $9 million. He could be traded. Alexi Casilla, Ryan Doumit and Jamey Carroll could both be traded to a contender needing to fill a role. If the Twins sour on any of their players that are out of options, they could be traded. The Twins have a $100 million payroll, so they are saying the right things, saying that they believe that with accountability, healthy and performance, they can compete. They have done so while also being in a position to go to a full-blown rebuild if the situation presents itself. I don’t know if that strategy is intentional, but the roster sets up to accommodate either option.

Players with less than three years of major league service time will typically sign one year, two-way contracts. Now that spring training has started, expect many of the Twins players to sign such contracts in the next week. These two-way contracts are for a certain dollar value if the player is in the big leagues, and another (significantly smaller) dollar value if they are playing in the minor leagues. The Two-Way Contract means that a player is EITHER making $X in the big leagues OR $(X – LOTS) in the minor leagues. With Terry Ryan at the helm and so many difficult questions to be answered when the season starts, it appears that the Twins have set up a Two-Way Planning system for the 2012 season. How it plays out will be determined by a series of EITHER/OR scenarios. The biggest EITHER/OR scenario is will the Twins be able to complete for a division title in 2012? We can all make assumptions, but we don’t know, and there are so many factors. FACTORS The health of Joe Mauer The health of Justin Morneau The health of Denard Span The elbow of Scott Baker The durability of Carl Pavano The mindset and performance of Francisco Liriano The improvements of Danny Valencia, Ben Revere and other young players Matt Capps ability to get outs in the 9th 2-5 bullpen arms need to step up and contribute consistently well. Minor Leaguers coming up and contributing when needed throughout the season (Hendriks, Diamond, Gutierrez, Guerra, Waldrop, Oliveros, Benson, Parmelee, Dozier, etc.) Each one of those ten Factors was a factor whether or not the Twins brought in any free agents. If seven or eight of those factors wind up positive for the Twins, they have a chance to compete. NEW VARIABLES Josh Willingham – The outfielder will likely replace the offensive production of Michael Cuddyer and play about as well defensively. He has a career track record of walking a lot, striking out a lot and hitting a bunch of home runs. Jamey Carroll – the middle infielder should help solidify an infield defense that was pretty atrocious last year. He also perfectly profiles as a #2 hitter due to a very good on-base percentage. Ryan Doumit – Likely becomes the team’s #2 starting catcher meaning he should start most of the games that Joe Mauer doesn’t behind the plate. On other days, he should get a lot of time as a DH, at 1B and even in RF. Offensively, he should add plenty of extra base hits. Jason Marquis – Although many Twins fans did not like this acquisition (and I’m not wild about it myself), Marquis has put together a pretty solid career. He was even pretty good last year in Washington (9-5, 3.95 ERA) before being traded to Arizona where he hurt his leg. He strikes out about as many Pavano. Let’s hope that he can eat that many innings! Joel Zumaya - The ultimate in ‘injury risk,’ Zumaya hasn’t pitched in nearly two years. However, he had a good throwing session in front of a lot of scouts. He still throws pretty hard. It will be very interesting to see how the Twins use him and how much he has to contribute. Although none of the above are All-Stars (with the possible exception of Willingham), they are the types of players that will compliment the roster well. The Two-Way Plan All of that background gets us to The Two-Way Plan for July. Because we don’t know for sure how it will play out, they will need to be written as IF/THEN statements. Scenario One IF seven or eight of the factors listed above are going positively, AND the Twins are getting positive performances from their minor leaguers and these new players, AND the team is in contention in mid-July, THEN they will have plenty of payroll flexibility to add a significant piece or two at the deadline, if they choose. Scenario Two However, IF things are not going well, AND they are enduring another year of injuries to key players, AND players are not stepping up as needed, AND the Twins find themselves well out of contention in July, THEN they have accumulated a lot of trade pieces to start a more rapid rebuilding plan. Carl Pavano, Jason Marquis and Francisco Liriano are all free agents at the end of the season. They could be traded. Scott Baker has an option at just over $9 million. He could be traded. Alexi Casilla, Ryan Doumit and Jamey Carroll could both be traded to a contender needing to fill a role. If the Twins sour on any of their players that are out of options, they could be traded. The Twins have a $100 million payroll, so they are saying the right things, saying that they believe that with accountability, healthy and performance, they can compete. They have done so while also being in a position to go to a full-blown rebuild if the situation presents itself. I don’t know if that strategy is intentional, but the roster sets up to accommodate either option.

I'd start by putting him into very low-leverage situations and see how it's going him build up confidence or some time.

This is a terrific visual of spring training. The Twins complex is really nice. All within a very short walk of each other.

We’ve been patient, at least as patient as we can. But it is really difficult. I mean, the last time we saw the Minnesota Twins play was September 28, 2011. What a game it was. Twins starter Carl Pavano threw nine shutout innings against the Kansas City Royals. Bruce Chen tossed eight scoreless at the Twins. Thankfully, the Royals brought reliever Blake Wood into the game, and you all remember, Trevor Plouffe lined a single that scored Denard Span and gave the Twins the win. That win came 143 days ago! 143 days! That’s almost five full months. Simply… that’s far too long to go without watching or favorite team. Since that day, the Twins lost several players including Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel, Joe Nathan, Jason Repko, Matt Tolbert and more. Jim Pohlad also decided to relieve Bill Smith of his GM duties and replace him with an old friend, Terry Ryan. Ryan has added free agents Josh Willingham, Jamey Carroll, Ryan Doumit, Jason Marquis, Joel Zumaya and a boat load of strong-armed minor league free agents. We have celebrated Thanksgiving, Christmas and New Years. Many of us had the opportunity to start getting prepped for the 2012 season by attending a Twins Caravan. Then many of us met at the Metrodome for Twins Fest. The last three weeks have been difficult. We’re all ready for things to get started. [ATTACH=CONFIG]146[/ATTACH] And this morning, we can finally say the four words that mean so much to baseball fans. Sure, many in the world want to talk about the Three Little Words that get uttered on Valentine’s Day. But for a baseball fan, no four words are more exciting than “Pitchers and Catchers Report.” This morning in Ft. Myers, Twins pitchers and catchers will report to Hammond Stadium in Ft. Myers. They won’t hold a full workout. That will happen on Sunday. Last night, Twins Director of Communications tweeted that “33 pitchers and catchers are ready to report in Ft. Myers tomorrow. (This) includes 11 non-roster pitchers and 5 non-roster catchers.” The other 25 position players will report in just a few days. Spring Training games begin in less than two weeks. Spring Training is about a fresh start. The sounds of baseball. The pop of catchers’ mitts. The encouraging shouts of coaches. The opportunity for a new beginning. Hope. Joy. Optimism. All great words. All appropriate today because of those four special words that baseball fans wait for all winter: Pitchers and Catchers Report! Any thoughts? Please feel free to e-mail me or use the Comments Section!

Our good friends over at Twinkie Town have spent the past couple of months working on their community Top 50 Twins Prospect list. Each day, those who went to their site were able to cast their vote for a player. The player with the most votes gets the spot, and the next day they would vote for the next spot. They started at #1 and worked all the way to #50 and the best part was community discussion each round. I thought it would be fun to compare and contrast my Top 50 Twins Prospect list to the Twinkie Town list. The top five on each list are the exact same, but after that, there are some significant differences, and by the time it reaches the end of the list, there are several names that don’t appear on both lists. So, as pitchers and catchers are set to report to Ft. Myers on Saturday and SethSpeaks.net is winding down, discuss these lists and feel free to post your own rankings. [TABLE] Rank SethSpeaks Top 50 Twinkie Town Top 50 1 Miguel Sano Miguel Sano 2 Eddie Rosario Eddie Rosario 3 Oswaldo Arcia Oswaldo Arcia 4 Aaron Hicks Aaron Hicks 5 Joe Benson Joe Benson 6 Liam Hendriks Kyle Gibson 7 Kyle Gibson Chris Parmelee 8 Adrian Salcedo Liam Hendriks 9 Alex Wimmers Brian Dozier 10 Chris Parmelee Chris Herrmann 11 Brian Dozier Max Kepler 12 Travis Harrison Levi Michael 13 Tom Stuifbergen Adrian Salcedo 14 Angel Morales Alex Wimmers 15 Chris Herrmann Angel Morales 16 Manuel Soliman Carlos Gutierrez 17 Levi Michael Tom Stuifbergen 18 Max Kepler Travis Harrison 19 Niko Goodrum Niko Goodrum 20 Hudson Boyd Hudson Boyd 21 BJ Hermsen Logan Darnell 22 Danny Santana Madison Boer 23 Madison Boer Manuel Soliman 24 Terry Doyle David Bromberg 25 Logan Darnell BJ Hermsen 26 David Bromberg Lester Oliveros 27 JD Williams Matt Hauser 28 Matt Hauser Deolis Guerra 29 Jairo Perez Tyler Robertson 30 Pat Dean Scott Diamond 31 Matt Summers Terry Doyle 32 Danny Rams Nate Roberts 33 Scott Diamond Matt Summers 34 Angel Mata Cole DeVries 35 Corey Williams Corey Williams 36 Danny Ortiz Matt Bashore 37 Carlos Gutierrez JD Williams 38 Nate Roberts Danny Rams 39 Lance Ray Pat Dean 40 Deolis Guerra Andrew Albers 41 Michael Gonzales Dakota Watts 42 Lester Oliveros Tim Shibuya 43 Ryan O’Rourke Lance Ray 44 Hung-yi Chen Evan Bigley 45 James Beresford James Beresford 46 Bobby Lanigan Tony Davis 47 Tyler Grimes Danny Lehmann 48 Anderson Hidalgo Jorge Polanco 49 Tim Shibuya Angel Mata 50 Luis Nunez Jairo Perez [/TABLE] Any thoughts? Please feel free to e-mail me or use the Comments Section!

Our good friends over at Twinkie Town have spent the past couple of months working on their community Top 50 Twins Prospect list. Each day, those who went to their site were able to cast their vote for a player. The player with the most votes gets the spot, and the next day they would vote for the next spot. They started at #1 and worked all the way to #50 and the best part was community discussion each round. I thought it would be fun to compare and contrast my Top 50 Twins Prospect list to the Twinkie Town list. The top five on each list are the exact same, but after that, there are some significant differences, and by the time it reaches the end of the list, there are several names that don’t appear on both lists. So, as pitchers and catchers are set to report to Ft. Myers on Saturday and SethSpeaks.net is winding down, discuss these lists and feel free to post your own rankings. [TABLE] Rank SethSpeaks Top 50 Twinkie Town Top 50 1 Miguel Sano Miguel Sano 2 Eddie Rosario Eddie Rosario 3 Oswaldo Arcia Oswaldo Arcia 4 Aaron Hicks Aaron Hicks 5 Joe Benson Joe Benson 6 Liam Hendriks Kyle Gibson 7 Kyle Gibson Chris Parmelee 8 Adrian Salcedo Liam Hendriks 9 Alex Wimmers Brian Dozier 10 Chris Parmelee Chris Herrmann 11 Brian Dozier Max Kepler 12 Travis Harrison Levi Michael 13 Tom Stuifbergen Adrian Salcedo 14 Angel Morales Alex Wimmers 15 Chris Herrmann Angel Morales 16 Manuel Soliman Carlos Gutierrez 17 Levi Michael Tom Stuifbergen 18 Max Kepler Travis Harrison 19 Niko Goodrum Niko Goodrum 20 Hudson Boyd Hudson Boyd 21 BJ Hermsen Logan Darnell 22 Danny Santana Madison Boer 23 Madison Boer Manuel Soliman 24 Terry Doyle David Bromberg 25 Logan Darnell BJ Hermsen 26 David Bromberg Lester Oliveros 27 JD Williams Matt Hauser 28 Matt Hauser Deolis Guerra 29 Jairo Perez Tyler Robertson 30 Pat Dean Scott Diamond 31 Matt Summers Terry Doyle 32 Danny Rams Nate Roberts 33 Scott Diamond Matt Summers 34 Angel Mata Cole DeVries 35 Corey Williams Corey Williams 36 Danny Ortiz Matt Bashore 37 Carlos Gutierrez JD Williams 38 Nate Roberts Danny Rams 39 Lance Ray Pat Dean 40 Deolis Guerra Andrew Albers 41 Michael Gonzales Dakota Watts 42 Lester Oliveros Tim Shibuya 43 Ryan O’Rourke Lance Ray 44 Hung-yi Chen Evan Bigley 45 James Beresford James Beresford 46 Bobby Lanigan Tony Davis 47 Tyler Grimes Danny Lehmann 48 Anderson Hidalgo Jorge Polanco 49 Tim Shibuya Angel Mata 50 Luis Nunez Jairo Perez [/TABLE] Any thoughts? Please feel free to e-mail me or use the Comments Section!

[ATTACH=CONFIG]125[/ATTACH]Twins Rule 5 draft pick Terry Doyle was the star guest on last night’s SethSpeaks.net Weekly Minnesota Twins Podcast. The right-hander comes to the Twins organization after spending the past few seasons in the Chicago White Sox organization. The New Hampshire native went to Boston College where he went four years, was drafted twice and graduated with a math major. He teamed with the Twins prospects on the Mesa Solar Sox roster in the Arizona Fall League where he went 4-0. All told, last season, he passed the 200 innings pitched count. He is certainly excited about his opportunity with the Twins. Twins pitchers and catchers will report to Ft. Myers (officially) on Saturday and their first workout is on Sunday. Of course, as is always the case, most of the Twins roster, including many minor leaguers, are already working out in Ft. Myers. Following the 20+ minute interview with the talented right-hander, Fanatic Jack and I discussed/argued several Twins related topics. I also gave a minute or two rant about why I chose to be optimistic and positive despite my ability to be realistic as well. I actually think it went pretty well as it wasn’t an interview session, it was just back and forth Twins banter on a smorgasbord of Twins topics. If you missed the live show on Tuesday night, be sure to listen to the podcast by clicking here. Any thoughts?

Aside from Ben Revere (who they were proven right in taking), when else since Adam Johnson have they signed someone below "slot" or to some pre-arranged agreement. They have gone over-slot in recent years on Gibson, Michael, Harrison and Boyd (plus later round picks like Williams, Higginbotham, Hermsen, Manship, etc.). They met slot on Wimmers, Hicks, Gutierrez, Parmelee and others. I had Richardson on my podcast back when he was drafted by the Twins. Good guy, but I agree that I bet he wishes he had signed. Great athlete, but yeah, he's Revere-like in size. I talked to Pat Light back then, and he knew he was going to Monmouth at the time unless overwhelmed.

Throughout the past few offseasons, the comments I hear most regarding the Twins needs involve the need to acquire an Ace. In fact, I’ve said it a few times myself. Of course, that isn’t completely true and it is never the full story. You see, for the mid-90s, the Twins had not only an Ace, but the best pitcher in baseball, and that didn’t get them to the second round of the playoffs. The 2011 Phillies boasted a starting rotation of Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels and Roy Oswalt and didn’t get to the World Series. That rotation has two definite Aces, a borderline ace and a former ace. I’d also caution that many people, one year ago, felt that Francisco Liriano fell into the borderline ace category. That is just one example of why I believe that to be a true ace, there has to be greatness over several seasons. Another example would be Ubaldo Jimenez who was dominant for half of the 2010 season but hasn’t been great since. Like Liriano, Jimenez has a chance to return to ace-like status, but we shall see. With that, I took to Twitter yesterday where I asked my ‘followers’ which current major league pitchers would or should be classified as True Aces. The response was great, and I will break this into the true aces (my opinion), and those on the borderline (my opinion). True Aces: Justin Verlander (Year 3 of five year, $80 million contract - $20M) Clayton Kershaw (Year 1 of two year, $19 million contract - $7.5M) Tim Lincecum (Year 1 of two year, $40.5 million contract - $18M) CC Sabathia (Year 1 of five year, $122 million contract - $23M) Felix Hernandez (Year 3 of five year, $78 million contract - $18.5M) Cliff Lee (Year 2 of five year, $120 million contract - $21.5M) Roy Halladay (Year 2 of three year, $60 million contract - $20M) Jared Weaver (Year 1 of five year, $85 million contract - $14M) Dan Haren (Year 4 of four year, $44.75 million contract - $12.75M - $15.5M club option for 2013) Yovani Gallardo (Year 3 of five year, $30.1 million contract, $5.5M) Matt Cain (Year 3 of three year, $27.25 million contract, $15M) Chris Carpenter (Year 1 of two year, $21 million contract - $10.5M) Borderline Aces: Josh Johnson (Year 3 of four year, $39 million contract - $13.75M) Cole Hamels (avoided arbitration, $15M) Adam Wainright (Year 5 of four year, $15 million contract – Cardinals picked up $9M option for 2012 despite Tommy John surgery) Zach Greinke (Year 4 of four year, $38 million contract - $13.5M) Matt Garza (avoided arbitration, $9.5 M) Jon Lester (Year 4 of five year, $30 million contract, $7.625M) Josh Beckett (Year 2 of four year, $68 million contract - $15.75M) David Price (avoided arbitration, $4.25M) Ricky Romero (Year 2 of five year, $30.1 million contract, $5M) Anibal Sanchez (won arbitration, 1 year, $8M) Could be an Ace quickly: Matt Moore, Stephen Strasburg, Mat Latos, Yu Darvish, Michael Pineda, Jeremy Hellickson, Tommy Hanson, Julio Teheran, Gerrit Cole, Dylan Bundy. So, when I hear Twins fans say, “We (meaning, the Twins) need an Ace,” I will frequently say, “I agree. How are the Twins going to get one?” Not one pitcher in that top list is available. Part of the reason they are in that top list is that, so far, they have been able to stay healthy. Johan Santana used to be in that category, but now that he hasn’t pitched for over 18 months, I’m not so sure he should be there any further. In the “Borderline” category, there are some guys who have been really good for a short period of time, or there is some injury concern or some inconsistency. We can argue what an Ace is, who is or who isn’t. That’s not really the point here. The point is that they are not easy to come by. These guys are not available, and after the Mat Latos trade earlier this offseason, it’s understandable to see why. Latos was traded to the Reds from the Padres in exchange for Edinson Volquez, Yonder Alonso, Yasmani Grandal and Brad Boxberger. Part of that is because Latos is not even arbitration-eligible for another year. However, the Cubs have been trying to trade Matt Garza much of the offseason and either are not getting any interest or the asking price is beyond what anyone is willing to pay. Santana is probably a big reason why. When the Twins traded the two-time Cy Young winner to the Mets, he was baseball’s best pitcher. He was good for another year and a half and then he did what most pitchers do, he got hurt. Of course, he could still come back. We shall see. But will he ever be what he was again? Probably not. More than half of the players listed above were drafted in the first half of the first round. The Twins have had one pick in the first half of the first round since 2002. The Twins have a big opportunity in the June draft when they have the 2nd overall pick. Mark Appel’s name is frequently mentioned as a possible choice. The Stanford right hander doesn’t really profile as an Ace, more like a 2 or 3 starter (like Kyle Gibson, Alex Wimmers or Liam Hendriks). Not that there is anything wrong with a 2 or 3 starter. Those are very good pitchers who will make a lot of money when they hit free agency. Lucas Giolito is another pitcher, a high school pitcher, who gets mentioned as a possible #2 pick. He profiles much more like a future Ace, but there is much more risk with a high school pitcher than with a college pitcher. Of course, by the time of the draft in June, there may be another name (pitcher or hitter) who is the best available player at that #2 spot and that’s who the Twins should take. The Twins have five picks in the top 100 picks this June. Along with signing Miguel Sano, Jorge Polanco, Javier Pimentel and other talented Dominican hitters, the Twins have also done a good job signing several top Dominican pitchers in recent years. They have signed two top young pitchers from Taiwan. I completely agree with people who say that the Twins need an Ace. Frankly, the best way for that to happen is for Francisco Liriano to gain a little self-confidence, trust his stuff and become that pitcher again. He was there in 2010. It’s a contract-year for him, so it would be to his benefit if he did regain that form this year. Scott Baker was pitching as well as anyone last year before his elbow injuries. He really needs to step up too. And then they just have to find a way to sign the right draft picks and international players and develop them. Frankly, I’m not as worried about getting a True Ace. That doesn’t guarantee anything. But I do think that pitching does win, and if they had more #2s and #3s that were consistent, they would be just fine. Any thoughts? Please feel free to use the Comments Section! ----- Last night, Travis Aune and I co-hosted a new Twins Minor League Weekly episode and discussed our Top 50 Twins prospects as well as the Top 100 rankings of several national writers. If you enjoyed last week’s SethSpeaks.net Weekly Twins podcast with several guests (Kyle Waldrop, Alex Margulies, Cory Provus, Jeff Manship, and Dan Rohlfing), you should tune in tonight at 9:00 for this week’s SethSpeaks.net Weekly Twins podcast with several more Twins guests. Finally, be sure to check out this week’s episode of Gleeman and the Geek. Nick wrote a first in a series of Things to Watch in 2012. He started with Glen Perkins’ Slider.

Throughout the past few offseasons, the comments I hear most regarding the Twins needs involve the need to acquire an Ace. In fact, I’ve said it a few times myself. Of course, that isn’t completely true and it is never the full story. You see, for the mid-90s, the Twins had not only an Ace, but the best pitcher in baseball, and that didn’t get them to the second round of the playoffs. The 2011 Phillies boasted a starting rotation of Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels and Roy Oswalt and didn’t get to the World Series. That rotation has two definite Aces, a borderline ace and a former ace. I’d also caution that many people, one year ago, felt that Francisco Liriano fell into the borderline ace category. That is just one example of why I believe that to be a true ace, there has to be greatness over several seasons. Another example would be Ubaldo Jimenez who was dominant for half of the 2010 season but hasn’t been great since. Like Liriano, Jimenez has a chance to return to ace-like status, but we shall see. With that, I took to Twitter yesterday where I asked my ‘followers’ which current major league pitchers would or should be classified as True Aces. The response was great, and I will break this into the true aces (my opinion), and those on the borderline (my opinion). True Aces: Justin Verlander (Year 3 of five year, $80 million contract - $20M) Clayton Kershaw (Year 1 of two year, $19 million contract - $7.5M) Tim Lincecum (Year 1 of two year, $40.5 million contract - $18M) CC Sabathia (Year 1 of five year, $122 million contract - $23M) Felix Hernandez (Year 3 of five year, $78 million contract - $18.5M) Cliff Lee (Year 2 of five year, $120 million contract - $21.5M) Roy Halladay (Year 2 of three year, $60 million contract - $20M) Jared Weaver (Year 1 of five year, $85 million contract - $14M) Dan Haren (Year 4 of four year, $44.75 million contract - $12.75M - $15.5M club option for 2013) Yovani Gallardo (Year 3 of five year, $30.1 million contract, $5.5M) Matt Cain (Year 3 of three year, $27.25 million contract, $15M) Chris Carpenter (Year 1 of two year, $21 million contract - $10.5M) Borderline Aces: Josh Johnson (Year 3 of four year, $39 million contract - $13.75M) Cole Hamels (avoided arbitration, $15M) Adam Wainright (Year 5 of four year, $15 million contract – Cardinals picked up $9M option for 2012 despite Tommy John surgery) Zach Greinke (Year 4 of four year, $38 million contract - $13.5M) Matt Garza (avoided arbitration, $9.5 M) Jon Lester (Year 4 of five year, $30 million contract, $7.625M) Josh Beckett (Year 2 of four year, $68 million contract - $15.75M) David Price (avoided arbitration, $4.25M) Ricky Romero (Year 2 of five year, $30.1 million contract, $5M) Anibal Sanchez (won arbitration, 1 year, $8M) Could be an Ace quickly: Matt Moore, Stephen Strasburg, Mat Latos, Yu Darvish, Michael Pineda, Jeremy Hellickson, Tommy Hanson, Julio Teheran, Gerrit Cole, Dylan Bundy. So, when I hear Twins fans say, “We (meaning, the Twins) need an Ace,” I will frequently say, “I agree. How are the Twins going to get one?” Not one pitcher in that top list is available. Part of the reason they are in that top list is that, so far, they have been able to stay healthy. Johan Santana used to be in that category, but now that he hasn’t pitched for over 18 months, I’m not so sure he should be there any further. In the “Borderline” category, there are some guys who have been really good for a short period of time, or there is some injury concern or some inconsistency. We can argue what an Ace is, who is or who isn’t. That’s not really the point here. The point is that they are not easy to come by. These guys are not available, and after the Mat Latos trade earlier this offseason, it’s understandable to see why. Latos was traded to the Reds from the Padres in exchange for Edinson Volquez, Yonder Alonso, Yasmani Grandal and Brad Boxberger. Part of that is because Latos is not even arbitration-eligible for another year. However, the Cubs have been trying to trade Matt Garza much of the offseason and either are not getting any interest or the asking price is beyond what anyone is willing to pay. Santana is probably a big reason why. When the Twins traded the two-time Cy Young winner to the Mets, he was baseball’s best pitcher. He was good for another year and a half and then he did what most pitchers do, he got hurt. Of course, he could still come back. We shall see. But will he ever be what he was again? Probably not. More than half of the players listed above were drafted in the first half of the first round. The Twins have had one pick in the first half of the first round since 2002. The Twins have a big opportunity in the June draft when they have the 2nd overall pick. Mark Appel’s name is frequently mentioned as a possible choice. The Stanford right hander doesn’t really profile as an Ace, more like a 2 or 3 starter (like Kyle Gibson, Alex Wimmers or Liam Hendriks). Not that there is anything wrong with a 2 or 3 starter. Those are very good pitchers who will make a lot of money when they hit free agency. Lucas Giolito is another pitcher, a high school pitcher, who gets mentioned as a possible #2 pick. He profiles much more like a future Ace, but there is much more risk with a high school pitcher than with a college pitcher. Of course, by the time of the draft in June, there may be another name (pitcher or hitter) who is the best available player at that #2 spot and that’s who the Twins should take. The Twins have five picks in the top 100 picks this June. Along with signing Miguel Sano, Jorge Polanco, Javier Pimentel and other talented Dominican hitters, the Twins have also done a good job signing several top Dominican pitchers in recent years. They have signed two top young pitchers from Taiwan. I completely agree with people who say that the Twins need an Ace. Frankly, the best way for that to happen is for Francisco Liriano to gain a little self-confidence, trust his stuff and become that pitcher again. He was there in 2010. It’s a contract-year for him, so it would be to his benefit if he did regain that form this year. Scott Baker was pitching as well as anyone last year before his elbow injuries. He really needs to step up too. And then they just have to find a way to sign the right draft picks and international players and develop them. Frankly, I’m not as worried about getting a True Ace. That doesn’t guarantee anything. But I do think that pitching does win, and if they had more #2s and #3s that were consistent, they would be just fine. Any thoughts? Please feel free to use the Comments Section! ----- Last night, Travis Aune and I co-hosted a new Twins Minor League Weekly episode and discussed our Top 50 Twins prospects as well as the Top 100 rankings of several national writers. If you enjoyed last week’s SethSpeaks.net Weekly Twins podcast with several guests (Kyle Waldrop, Alex Margulies, Cory Provus, Jeff Manship, and Dan Rohlfing), you should tune in tonight at 9:00 for this week’s SethSpeaks.net Weekly Twins podcast with several more Twins guests. Finally, be sure to check out this week’s episode of Gleeman and the Geek. Nick wrote a first in a series of Things to Watch in 2012. He started with Glen Perkins’ Slider.

No, I do not think that the Twins should consider a trade to bring back former catcher AJ Pierzynski. I’m talking about whether or not the Twins should consider working on a trade with the Yankees to acquire RHP AJ Burnett. When asked about that idea weeks ago, my immediate response was “No, thank you!” But upon further review, I think it’s a valid question to ask. Burnett has been pretty bad the last two seasons. In 2010, he was 10-15 with a 5.26 ERA and a 1.51 WHIP. In 2011, he was 11-11 with a 5.15 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP. He is also owed $33 million over the next two seasons. He turned 35 years old in January. All those reasons mean that the answer probably should be “No, thank you!” But maybe it isn’t and shouldn’t be that simple. It appears that a deal between the Yankees and the Pittsburgh Pirates is likely, but here are a few reasons that the Twins should at least make a quick phone call to Brian Cashman: The first assumption would have to be that the Yankees will cover $20-25 million of the $33 million remaining on Burnett’s contract. If that can’t be agreed upon, then there is zero reason to continue discussion. The second assumption is that the Yankees are not looking for a top prospect in return. Of course, if they’re going to hand over that much money, they will want something of quality too. If they think they’re going to get Miguel Sano, then the discussion can end too. He has made 32 or more starts each of the past four seasons. He has thrown more than 186 innings each of those seasons. Getting out of New York can be a good thing for many pitchers, especially after a bad year or two. Think anyone understands that better than Carl Pavano. The two were teammates with the Marlins from 2002 through 2004. Could playing in Minnesota and with an old teammate help Burnett reach his potential again? Burnett may be a big of an enigma, but he’s an enigma who throws really hard and has a really nasty slider and as recently as three years ago, he struck out more than a batter per inning. A rotation of Burnett, Liriano, Baker and Pavano is a pretty good start. Burnett has the stuff, like Liriano, to be a top of the rotation guy. Baker is a very good #2. Burnett has playoff experience and success. The case can also be made that he, like Liriano, may be a bit of a head case. We don’t know if he will improve by being out of New York. We don’t know that he will continue to be healthy. We don’t know what the Twins advanced scouts think of what he has left. It won’t happen, and it probably shouldn’t happen. At the end of the day, I probably would still say “No, Thank you!” The discussion is certainly worthwhile, and I have to assume that it was discussed at least to some level in the Twins front offices. Any thoughts? Please feel free to use the Comments Section!