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Everything posted by Seth Stohs
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David Schoenfield thoughts on Arcia & Hicks
Seth Stohs commented on AllhopeisgoneMNTWINS's blog entry in Blog AllhopeisgoneMNTWINS
Agree completely with his answer, including that a trade of (most likely) Span is inevitable. No way Hicks and/or Arcia is ready to start the season. Give them a half-season in AAA and see where they are. Last year, we saw a little of Parmelee and Benson. Both proved that they weren't quite ready this season (to very varying degrees). Let's see how AAA goes for Hicks and Arcia before bringing them up too quickly. -
Well, the obvious answer is that if you hit a home run, you drive yourself in as well, instead of needing someone else to come up with another hit to score him. If Mauer had 10 more home runs, and they were all solo home runs, he'd had 95 RBI, and likely a few more and be over 100. But, I would never advocate him changing anything about his swing or his approach.
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Today marks the Opening Day of the 2012 Arizona Fall League. As you know, the Twins sent seven players to play for the Peoria Javelinas. The hitters are catcher Chris Herrmann and outfielders Evan Bigley and Nate Roberts. The pitchers are lefties Logan Darnell and Caleb Thielbar and right-handers Michael Tonkin and Kyle Gibson. Be sure to keep up with the Twins in the AFL right here at Twins Daily. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Today also marks the beginning of a series at Twins Daily that we’ll be calling Ten Questions With… It’s pretty self-explanatory. I’ll ask ten questions to someone related to the Minnesota Twins. Our first guest to answer ten questions is Kyle Gibson. We appreciate his willingness to take some time to answer questions as he’s been very busy since the regular season ended. However, he was gracious enough to do a terrific job responding on a variety of questions. So here we go… here are… TEN QUESTIONS WITH… Kyle Gibson 1.) Just over one year ago, you had successful Tommy John surgery. What was the most difficult part of those first few months of rehab? Kyle Gibson (KG): Most difficult part of the first few months was probably being careful that I not use my arm too much. I am such an active person/busy person physically, that I had to be careful that I didn't try and lift too much, or move it past the range of motion allowed. Once I was able to use my arm fully, life was much easier!!! haha 2.) How difficult was it to stay patient with the rehab once you were able to pick up a baseball? Were you tempted to make more throws or throw from a longer distance? KG: It was hard to stay patient with rehab mainly because I felt very good for almost all of the throwing process. I think had I felt more soreness, then I would have been easily patient with the process, but I guess it is a blessing that I felt so good! I wasn't really tempted too much to make more throws or at longer distances because I knew it was important to make sure I follow the protocol, and since I was in Ft Myers working directly with Lanning Tucker, the rehab coordinator, I didn't have much of a choice when it came to throwing extra!!! 3.) I know you are a person of strong faith, family and values. How did those things help you through the rough days? KG: All three of those things helped through each and every day, no doubt. When it comes to my faith, it helped me have confidence that God put me in that position for a reason and the adversity that I was facing is going to make me a stronger person down the road. I just had to fully trust that His plan is the best plan for me, and when I do that, it’s easy for me to accept what is happening, good or bad, in my life. My family was a big help, especially my wife because she was there every day in Ft Myers. It was a big help to be able to come home and do other things other than think about baseball. I love baseball, no doubt, but if I only had baseball to think about then I would have drove myself crazy thinking about how I could rehab better/more. 4.) You set a timeline, and you were able to stay on it. The first bullpen session was in early June, and you were pitching for the GCL Twins in rehab games in July. What was it like to get back on the mound in a game again? KG: Getting back on the mound was an unbelievable feeling. I cannot even express the feeling in words because it was a culmination of hard work that had been 10 months in the making! I am just happy and blessed to have had no setbacks to this point. 5.) Was it important for you to get back up to AAA Rochester in 2012? How did you feel about your performance there, and in general, how was your arm feeling at that point? KG: I think getting back to Rochester, in the grand scheme of things, really wasn’t as important as I was making it to myself. I wanted to get back there, prove I was healthy, and have success against good competition, to at least prove to myself that I was ready for it. I felt good about how I did there. I did give up runs each time out, but I feel that I have fixed a few things since then. I really had a problem out of the stretch position, and as a result I was leaving the ball up and not making quality pitches. Since then I feel like I have watched enough video to work out those problems, and I am looking forward to getting to test them here in the fall league. My arm has felt great through the whole process. Even then, I had some minor soreness here and there, but all normal for my situation. 6.) What have you been up to since the end of the season and specifically leading up to the Arizona Fall League? KG: After the season I went down to Ft. Myers to keep my arm in shape and get ready for the fall league. I spent a few weeks in instructional league pitching some innings and working on a few things. 7.) What are you looking forward to in the Arizona Fall League? Is it more about getting innings and gaining arm strength, or is it working on pitches, control and confidence? KG: What I am most looking forward to is getting more comfortable on the mound and making quality pitches against quality hitters. It is about gaining arm strength, more innings, working on pitches, and control as well, without a doubt. 8.) Have you allowed yourself to start thinking about being added to the 40 man roster, going to spring training and, after all you've been through and all the hard work, what it will mean to get that call, to the big leagues? KG: I have tried to think mostly about the present work I am doing. It is always hard not to think about what it will be like to be called up to the big leagues, if I get that chance, but the most I think about that, the less I am focused on staying healthy and getting better so that if I do get that chance, I am ready! I am very much looking forward to spring training, without a doubt. I want to go into it and show that I am healthy and ready to pitch wherever the Twins want to send me. 9.) Tell us a little about Mission of Mercy, a mission project in the Dominican Republic that you and your wife are very active with. KG: Mission of Mercy is an organization that is involved in many different countries around the world with the Dominican Republic being one of those. My agent was working with a player at the time who was looking to get involved with M of M, and in doing so, they donated a good sum of money to start another project in the D.R. My agent invited me to go for the ribbon cutting ceremony in 2009, and I have been hooked ever since! It’s a project with a school on site, as well as a baseball field, a basketball court with a volleyball net as well, and an outdoor pavilion for meeting purposes. There are about 200 kids that attend school at the project, and this last year, my wife and I decided to sponsor a little girl, and it was an amazing moment for us to meet her and her family last trip down there. If your readers want to make a contribution to the project or sponsor a child, they can find more information about what we are doing down there at https://www.missionofmercy.org/BaseballProject. 10.) Finally, you're putting together a charity auction of some of your game-used items on ebay. What are you selling and where can our readers find more information? How can TwinsDaily.com readers and fans contribute? KG: I have decided to sell some game used items on EBay to raise some funds for this project in the D.R., and it has been a lot of fun. They will be going on for the next couple weeks, and left to be sold are a few more pairs of cleats, a glove, and maybe another hat or two. I am also going to be selling some pictures of me at the Futures Game that were taken by my dad, and maybe some autographed baseballs. All the gear will be signed and will have a Bible verse on it that has not been put on any other item I have ever signed. I want each of these items to be special and one of a kind. Anyone can bid on the items on eBay and my seller ID is Kgibby44. I will be keeping everyone updated through twitter and facebook as to what items are being auctioned off. Your readers can follow me on twitter if they like at @Kgib44 if they like! Thanks Seth! Thank you Kyle!! Reports indicate that to this point Gibson is throwing harder than he threw before his Tommy John surgery. That is certainly encouraging but we all have to remind ourselves that this is a process. The process is taking him to the hitter-friendly Arizona Fall League where he can hopefully throw another 25-30 innings in preparation for spring training next season. As good of a pitcher as Gibson has the potential to be, he is an even better person with a strong faith and family and proper perspective. We certainly wish him the best!
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[ATTACH=CONFIG]2480[/ATTACH] Today marks the Opening Day of the 2012 Arizona Fall League. As you know, the Twins sent seven players to play for the Peoria Javelinas. The hitters are catcher Chris Herrmann and outfielders Evan Bigley and Nate Roberts. The pitchers are lefties Logan Darnell and Caleb Thielbar and right-handers Michael Tonkin and Kyle Gibson. Be sure to keep up with the Twins in the AFL right here at Twins Daily. Today also marks the beginning of a series at Twins Daily that we’ll be calling Ten Questions With… It’s pretty self-explanatory. I’ll ask ten questions to someone related to the Minnesota Twins. Our first guest to answer ten questions is Kyle Gibson. We appreciate his willingness to take some time to answer questions as he’s been very busy since the regular season ended. However, he was gracious enough to do a terrific job responding on a variety of questions. So here we go… here are… TEN QUESTIONS WITH… Kyle Gibson 1.) Just over one year ago, you had successful Tommy John surgery. What was the most difficult part of those first few months of rehab? Kyle Gibson (KG): Most difficult part of the first few months was probably being careful that I not use my arm too much. I am such an active person/busy person physically, that I had to be careful that I didn't try and lift too much, or move it past the range of motion allowed. Once I was able to use my arm fully, life was much easier!!! haha 2.) How difficult was it to stay patient with the rehab once you were able to pick up a baseball? Were you tempted to make more throws or throw from a longer distance? KG: It was hard to stay patient with rehab mainly because I felt very good for almost all of the throwing process. I think had I felt more soreness, then I would have been easily patient with the process, but I guess it is a blessing that I felt so good! I wasn't really tempted too much to make more throws or at longer distances because I knew it was important to make sure I follow the protocol, and since I was in Ft Myers working directly with Lanning Tucker, the rehab coordinator, I didn't have much of a choice when it came to throwing extra!!! 3.) I know you are a person of strong faith, family and values. How did those things help you through the rough days? KG: All three of those things helped through each and every day, no doubt. When it comes to my faith, it helped me have confidence that God put me in that position for a reason and the adversity that I was facing is going to make me a stronger person down the road. I just had to fully trust that His plan is the best plan for me, and when I do that, it’s easy for me to accept what is happening, good or bad, in my life. My family was a big help, especially my wife because she was there every day in Ft Myers. It was a big help to be able to come home and do other things other than think about baseball. I love baseball, no doubt, but if I only had baseball to think about then I would have drove myself crazy thinking about how I could rehab better/more. 4.) You set a timeline, and you were able to stay on it. The first bullpen session was in early June, and you were pitching for the GCL Twins in rehab games in July. What was it like to get back on the mound in a game again? KG: Getting back on the mound was an unbelievable feeling. I cannot even express the feeling in words because it was a culmination of hard work that had been 10 months in the making! I am just happy and blessed to have had no setbacks to this point. 5.) Was it important for you to get back up to AAA Rochester in 2012? How did you feel about your performance there, and in general, how was your arm feeling at that point? KG: I think getting back to Rochester, in the grand scheme of things, really wasn’t as important as I was making it to myself. I wanted to get back there, prove I was healthy, and have success against good competition, to at least prove to myself that I was ready for it. I felt good about how I did there. I did give up runs each time out, but I feel that I have fixed a few things since then. I really had a problem out of the stretch position, and as a result I was leaving the ball up and not making quality pitches. Since then I feel like I have watched enough video to work out those problems, and I am looking forward to getting to test them here in the fall league. My arm has felt great through the whole process. Even then, I had some minor soreness here and there, but all normal for my situation. 6.) What have you been up to since the end of the season and specifically leading up to the Arizona Fall League? KG: After the season I went down to Ft. Myers to keep my arm in shape and get ready for the fall league. I spent a few weeks in instructional league pitching some innings and working on a few things. 7.) What are you looking forward to in the Arizona Fall League? Is it more about getting innings and gaining arm strength, or is it working on pitches, control and confidence? KG: What I am most looking forward to is getting more comfortable on the mound and making quality pitches against quality hitters. It is about gaining arm strength, more innings, working on pitches, and control as well, without a doubt. 8.) Have you allowed yourself to start thinking about being added to the 40 man roster, going to spring training and, after all you've been through and all the hard work, what it will mean to get that call, to the big leagues? KG: I have tried to think mostly about the present work I am doing. It is always hard not to think about what it will be like to be called up to the big leagues, if I get that chance, but the most I think about that, the less I am focused on staying healthy and getting better so that if I do get that chance, I am ready! I am very much looking forward to spring training, without a doubt. I want to go into it and show that I am healthy and ready to pitch wherever the Twins want to send me. 9.) Tell us a little about Mission of Mercy, a mission project in the Dominican Republic that you and your wife are very active with. KG: Mission of Mercy is an organization that is involved in many different countries around the world with the Dominican Republic being one of those. My agent was working with a player at the time who was looking to get involved with M of M, and in doing so, they donated a good sum of money to start another project in the D.R. My agent invited me to go for the ribbon cutting ceremony in 2009, and I have been hooked ever since! It’s a project with a school on site, as well as a baseball field, a basketball court with a volleyball net as well, and an outdoor pavilion for meeting purposes. There are about 200 kids that attend school at the project, and this last year, my wife and I decided to sponsor a little girl, and it was an amazing moment for us to meet her and her family last trip down there. If your readers want to make a contribution to the project or sponsor a child, they can find more information about what we are doing down there at https://www.missionofmercy.org/BaseballProject. 10.) Finally, you're putting together a charity auction of some of your game-used items on ebay. What are you selling and where can our readers find more information? How can TwinsDaily.com readers and fans contribute? KG: I have decided to sell some game used items on EBay to raise some funds for this project in the D.R., and it has been a lot of fun. They will be going on for the next couple weeks, and left to be sold are a few more pairs of cleats, a glove, and maybe another hat or two. I am also going to be selling some pictures of me at the Futures Game that were taken by my dad, and maybe some autographed baseballs. All the gear will be signed and will have a Bible verse on it that has not been put on any other item I have ever signed. I want each of these items to be special and one of a kind. Anyone can bid on the items on eBay and my seller ID is Kgibby44. I will be keeping everyone updated through twitter and facebook as to what items are being auctioned off. Your readers can follow me on twitter if they like at @Kgib44 if they like! Thanks Seth! Thank you Kyle!! Reports indicate that to this point Gibson is throwing harder than he threw before his Tommy John surgery. That is certainly encouraging but we all have to remind ourselves that this is a process. The process is taking him to the hitter-friendly Arizona Fall League where he can hopefully throw another 25-30 innings in preparation for spring training next season. As good of a pitcher as Gibson has the potential to be, he is an even better person with a strong faith and family and proper perspective. We certainly wish him the best! [ATTACH=CONFIG]2481[/ATTACH]
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I have been meaning to write a blog or an article on this topic for days. Thankfully, Kurt Mensching from the terrific Tigers blog Bless You Boys wrote it for me! (http://www.blessyouboys.com/2012/10/3/3448684/the-triple-crown-still-matters-dont-let-anybody-tell-you-otherwise) Sure, he's a Tigers blogger, so he might be a little biased on this topic today. But I'm a Twins blogger, and I 100% agree with him. The Triple Crown still matters, no matter what some people want you to think. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Do I think that if Miguel Cabrera achieves the Triple Crown that it should assure that he be the AL MVP? No. But the two don't have to go hand in hand, do they? Why can't we just appreciate a statistical achievement that has not happened in Major League Baseball in 45 years!! Why can't we just appreciate a statistical achievement that only 11 players have done since 1900! Batting Average - yes, I understand, it's not as important as on-base percentage, but it's still a nice statistic. It must be fairly important as it is counted twice in OPS! HR - These are fairly important and have a nice impact on Slugging Percentage and RBI. RBI - yes, they are dependent often upon teammates getting on base. Kurt wrote it so much more thoroughly and eloquently than I, but Someone has to drive in runs. As Twins fans, we should appreciate this. How many times this year (and in recent years), have the Twins had a runner on 3B and less than two outs and NOT scored a run. A sacrifice fly would do it. A ground out to 2B would do it. Someone has to score the runs. I don't know. Maybe I read the wrong bloggers and writers on Twitter or something. I like most of the new-school stats and try to have a cursory understanding of what they are telling me. They are great, and I do believe that all front offices should use them to some degree. But I also believe that front office do need to use old-school methods of scouting and player evaluation too. People can talk all they want about whether Mike Trout or Miguel Cabrera should win the AL MVP award. I'm not sure I care which wins because I feel both are deserving. Just as I hope voters will not use solely the SABRmetric stats like WAR to decide, I don't think they should only use the old-school stats either. But that's about the MVP award. If we're just talking about the Triple Crown on its own, it is incredible cool. I don't think that Cabrera is being talked about enough for what he is likely to be able to claim by the end of today. 45 years... accomplished 11 times since 1900 (and by Hall of Famers)... What Miguel Cabrera is doing in 2012 is historical, and I guess, in my opinion, it hasn't been treated as such. Especially as we are seeing offensive numbers declining the last couple of years, it is even more impressive. Vote for whoever you want for the AL MVP, but at least give Cabrera credit for a monster offensive season. It's OK. Really! You can celebrate a Triple Crown Award... And, you can discuss it here.
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Two more games left. 160 Twins games have been played in 2012 season. It’s been yet another frustrating, 90-loss season for the Twins and their fans. As the offseason fast approaches, it will soon be time for the Hot Stove League. That means 40 man roster decisions, winter meetings, trades, free agents, and most important, rumors. Rumors will, as always, be prevalent throughout the offseason. Twins Daily is the place for all of that! [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] One question that the Twins front office will have to ask themselves, and Twins fans will want to ask themselves (just for fun), will affect how the offseason plays out. Is the Twins' glass half full or half empty? Consider: Josh Willingham came to Target Field and in his first year with the Twins, he hit a career-high 35 home runs and drove in a career-high 110 runs in a career-high 145 games. Joe Mauer returned from a frustrating 2011 season to compete for the AL batting title and lead Major League Baseball in On-Base Percentage. Proving he can play a solid 1B, his 147 games played (assuming he plays the final two games in Toronto) will be a career high. Ryan Doumit was brought in on a one-year, $3 million deal and posted his career bests in doubles (34), home runs (18), RBI (75) and games played (134). He did a nice job behind the plate and showed enough versatility to play some left field. The Twins locked him up for two more years at just $7 million. Justin Morneau overcame wrist and brain injuries to have a monster second half. Denard Span and Ben Revere did a nice job instigating the lineup, helping the team to more an 0.5 more runs per game than a year ago. Both played very good defense as well. Lefty Scott Diamond came back from a difficult 2011 season to become the Twins best starting pitcher. With one start remaining, he is 12-8 with a 3.54 ERA (4-1 in Rochester, giving him 16 total wins in 2012 after losing 19 combined last year). He has already thrown 202.2 innings. Glen Perkins was signed to a long-term contract extension this spring and has proven to be worth every cent regardless of the role he has been in. He’s 3-1 with 16 saves. In 69.1 innings, he has walked just 16 and struck out 75. Jared Burton was signed as a minor league free agent after missing time the last couple of years with shoulder injuries. He became the Twins 8th inning stalwart. He was 3-2 with a 2.21 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP. In 61 innings, he walked just 15 and struckout 53. Note that if nothing changes, each of these players is scheduled to be back with the Twins in 2012. However, at the same time, a few realities need to be front of mind: Despite the offensive performances listed above, the Twins offense ranked 10th out of 14 teams in the American League with 4.35 runs per game. They are 7th in batting average and 6th in on-base percentage. However, they are just 12th out of 14 in slugging percentage thanks to the second fewest home runs. The Twins pitchers gave up 5.16 runs per game which was better than only Cleveland (5.17 R/G). Of course, their ERA is 4.78 and Cleveland’s is 4.77. What is staggering is that the Twins had just 924 strikeouts. The second-lowest total in the AL? Cleveland pitchers have struckout 1,058. Tampa’s pitchers led with 1,348 strikeouts. Last year the Twins were the second-worst team in baseball. This year, despite relative health (at least compared to 2011) and strong performances by all of those listed above, the Twins will have another top five pick in the 2013 draft. They’re also competing over the final two games of the season with Cleveland for last place in baseball’s worst division. So again, the question for the Twins front office (and for all of you reading this, of course), how full is the Twins cup? Half Full? Or Half Empty? Half Full - The Twins could make one trade and sign two or three mid-level pitchers who will make Diamond the Twins #3 or #4 starter, instead of #1 starter. In doing so, the Twins could be competitive in the AL Central in 2013 or at least 2014. Meanwhile, Kyle Gibson, Aaron Hicks, Oswaldo Arcia, Chris Herrmann and a few other minor leaguers could be ready to contribute by midseason. Half Empty – The Twins need to blow this thing up. Trade Morneau. Trade Span. Trade Willingham. Acquire youth. Build for 2017 and hope that the rebuilding goes better than the Royals or Pirates plans have gone. The Pirates assured themselves of their 20th straight losing season. The Royals have one .500 season in the last 20. So as the Twins finish out their season north of the border, Twins Daily will be great place for Twins fans to discuss what direction we would encourage the Twins front office to go.
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How full is your Minnesota Twins glass?
Seth Stohs commented on Seth Stohs's blog entry in SethSpeaks.net
[ATTACH=CONFIG]2449[/ATTACH] Two more games left. 160 Twins games have been played in 2012 season. It’s been yet another frustrating, 90-loss season for the Twins and their fans. As the offseason fast approaches, it will soon be time for the Hot Stove League. That means 40 man roster decisions, winter meetings, trades, free agents, and most important, rumors. Rumors will, as always, be prevalent throughout the offseason. Twins Daily is the place for all of that! One question that the Twins front office will have to ask themselves, and Twins fans will want to ask themselves (just for fun), will affect how the offseason plays out. Is the Twins' glass half full or half empty? Consider: Josh Willingham came to Target Field and in his first year with the Twins, he hit a career-high 35 home runs and drove in a career-high 110 runs in a career-high 145 games. Joe Mauer returned from a frustrating 2011 season to compete for the AL batting title and lead Major League Baseball in On-Base Percentage. Proving he can play a solid 1B, his 147 games played (assuming he plays the final two games in Toronto) will be a career high. Ryan Doumit was brought in on a one-year, $3 million deal and posted his career bests in doubles (34), home runs (18), RBI (75) and games played (134). He did a nice job behind the plate and showed enough versatility to play some left field. The Twins locked him up for two more years at just $7 million. Denard Span and Ben Revere did a nice job instigating the lineup, helping the team to more an 0.5 more runs per game than a year ago. Both played very good defense as well. Lefty Scott Diamond came back from a difficult 2011 season to become the Twins best starting pitcher. With one start remaining, he is 12-8 with a 3.54 ERA (4-1 in Rochester, giving him 16 total wins in 2012 after losing 19 combined last year). He has already thrown 202.2 innings. Glen Perkins was signed to a long-term contract extension this spring and has proven to be worth every cent regardless of the role he has been in. He’s 3-1 with 16 saves. In 69.1 innings, he has walked just 16 and struck out 75. Jared Burton was signed as a minor league free agent after missing time the last couple of years with shoulder injuries. He became the Twins 8th inning stalwart. He was 3-2 with a 2.21 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP. In 61 innings, he walked just 15 and struckout 53. Note that if nothing changes, each of these players is scheduled to be back with the Twins in 2012. However, at the same time, a few realities need to be front of mind: Despite the offensive performances listed above, the Twins offense ranked 10th out of 14 teams in the American League with 4.35 runs per game. They are 7th in batting average and 6th in on-base percentage. However, they are just 12th out of 14 in slugging percentage thanks to the second fewest home runs. The Twins pitchers gave up 5.16 runs per game which was better than only Cleveland (5.17 R/G). Of course, their ERA is 4.78 and Cleveland’s is 4.77. What is staggering is that the Twins had just 924 strikeouts. The second-lowest total in the AL? Cleveland pitchers have struckout 1,058. Tampa’s pitchers led with 1,348 strikeouts. Last year the Twins were the second-worst team in baseball. This year, despite relative health (at least compared to 2011) and strong performances by all of those listed above, the Twins will have another top five pick in the 2013 draft. They’re also competing over the final two games of the season with Cleveland for last place in baseball’s worst division. So again, the question for the Twins front office (and for all of you reading this, of course), how full is the Twins cup? Half Full? Or Half Empty? Half Full - The Twins could make one trade and sign two or three mid-level pitchers who will make Diamond the Twins #3 or #4 starter, instead of #1 starter. In doing so, the Twins could be competitive in the AL Central in 2013 or at least 2014. Meanwhile, Kyle Gibson, Aaron Hicks, Oswaldo Arcia, Chris Herrmann and a few other minor leaguers could be ready to contribute by midseason. Half Empty – The Twins need to blow this thing up. Trade Morneau. Trade Span. Trade Willingham. Acquire youth. Build for 2017 and hope that the rebuilding goes better than the Royals or Pirates plans have gone. The Pirates assured themselves of their 20th straight losing season. The Royals have one .500 season in the last 20. So as the Twins finish out their season north of the border, Twins Daily will be great place for Twins fans to discuss what direction we would encourage the Twins front office to go. -
Burton: What's is the Future for a 31 Year Old Set Up Man?
Seth Stohs commented on jorgenswest's blog entry in Blog jorgenswest
very nice analysis... -
[ATTACH=CONFIG]2426[/ATTACH] I was listening to this week’s Gleeman & the Geek episode. In it, they discussed briefly how many Twins prospects might make Baseball America’s 2013 Top 100 prospects list. It certainly is an interesting question, especially given that the Twins minor league system has been generally considered very weak the last few years. However, there is little question in my mind, that the Twins organization will likely rank in the Top 10 minor league systems again. The general belief is that Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton will likely be Top 25 prospects in all of baseball. The two certainly give the Twins a couple of high ceiling prospects although both are yet to turn 20. Aaron Hicks is no stranger to the Top 100 lists. He was #19 on their list in 2010 and #45 in 2011 before dropping out of the last this past year. Oswaldo Arcia hasn’t been on Baseball America’s Top 100 before, but he put together quite the offensive season at age 21. I fully expect both of them to be in the Top 100. What about Eddie Rosario? Will missing a month of the season keep him out of the Top 100? Kyle Gibson was #34 in 2011 after being #61 in 2010. Although he pitched very little in 2012, could he make the list again with a strong AFL showing? What about Jose (JO) Berrios? The Twins first supplemental first-round draft pick this year just dominated the rookie leagues. I figure that there are four ‘for-sures’ to be Top 100, and I listed three others that we could make a strong case for making it. More important than the actual list itself is the fact that the Twins do have a lot of high-ceiling prospects again. But, what does that really mean? What has being a Baseball America Top 100 prospect meant over the last 23 years? Let’s take a look: 1990 – Willie Banks (13), Johnny Ard (46), Kevin Tapani (88) 1991 – Willie Banks (15), Rich Garces (16), Chuck Knoblauch (72) 1992 – David McCarty (22), Pat Mahomes (25), Midre Cummings (33), Willie Banks (68), Alan Newman (96), Todd Ritchie (98) 1993 – David McCarthy (16), Mike Trombley (53), Rich Becker (78) 1994 – Rich Becker (37), Todd Ritchie (78), LaTroy Hawkins (92) 1995 – LaTroy Hawkins (30), Todd Walker (40), Marc Barcelo (70) 1996 – Todd Walker (22), Jose Valentin (58), LaTroy Hawkins (70), Dan Serafini (76) 1997 – Todd Walker (7), Luis Rivas (70), Torii Hunter (79) 1998 – Eric Milton (25), Luis Rivas (55), David Ortiz (84) 1999 – Michael Cuddyer (36), Michael Restovich (50), Luis Rivas (63), Cristian Guzman (68) 2000 – Michael Cuddyer (18), Michael Restovich (26), Matthew LeCroy (44), BJ Garbe (79), Luis Rivas (86) 2001 – Adam Johnson (41), Michael Cuddyer (55), Luis Rivas (93) 2002 – Joe Mauer (7), Justin Morneau (21), Michael Cuddyer (27), Michael Restovich (63), Adam Johnson (85) 2003 – Joe Mauer (4), Justin Morneau (14), Michael Cuddyer (17), Michael Restovich (37) 2004 – Joe Mauer (1), Justin Morneau (16), JD Durbin (66), Matt Moses (81), Jesse Crain (89) 2005 – Joe Mauer (1), Jason Kubel (17), Jesse Crain (63), JD Durbin (70) 2006 – Francisco Liriano (6), Jason Kubel (58), Matt Moses (75), Glen Perkins (91), Anthony Swarzak (100) 2007 – Matt Garza (21), Glen Perkins (66), Kevin Slowey (71), Chris Parmelee (94) 2008 – Deolis Guerra (35), Carlos Gomez (52), Nick Blackburn (56) 2009 – Ben Revere (59), Wilson Ramos (71) 2010 – Aaron Hicks (19), Wilson Ramos (58), Kyle Gibson (61), Miguel Sano (94) 2011 – Kyle Gibson (34), Aaron Hicks (45), Miguel Sano (60), Joe Benson (100) 2012 – Miguel Sano (18), Joe Benson (99) A couple of notes: Any question why the Twins struggled in the 1990s? How about all of the high school pitchers drafted high in the late 80’s and early 90s? Guys like Willie Banks, Johnny Ard, Pat Mahomes, Alan Newman, Todd Ritchie and Dan Serafini didn’t exactly pan out. LaTroy Hawkins was a success story after several years of struggling. Of course, Brad Radke was a high school draft pick who was never a top prospect, but he turned out alright. Based on his rankings, it sure would have been nice to see Rochester’s Michael Restovich get a real opportunity. Either that, or he’s a good example of a guy who hit a ton of HR in the Pacific Coast League and it wouldn’t translate to the big leagues? These Top 100 lists are a good illustration of the definition of prospects. Most of them don’t make it to elite status. Some of the top guys become stars, and others completely flame out. Some just become OK players or even role players. Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau and Michael Cuddyer turned out alright, I guess. I sometimes think that many Twins fans who talk about how bad the Twins farm system was a couple of years ago (and it was certainly not great) only had the incredible run of mid-‘00s prospects to compare to. In addition to those three, guys like Jason Kubel, Francisco Liriano and Glen Perkins were all prospects around the same time. Twins fans should be excited about the list of seven prospects mentioned early in this article. They are legitimate prospects and should give the Twins scouting departments a lot more credibility again. However, as with any prospects, there has to be an understanding of just what these rankings mean.
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I was listening to this week’s Gleeman & the Geek episode. In it, they discussed briefly how many Twins prospects might make Baseball America’s 2013 Top 100 prospects list. It certainly is an interesting question, especially given that the Twins minor league system has been generally considered very weak the last few years. However, there is little question in my mind, that the Twins organization will likely rank in the Top 10 minor league systems again. The general belief is that Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton will likely be Top 25 prospects in all of baseball. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]The two certainly give the Twins a couple of high ceiling prospects although both are yet to turn 20. Aaron Hicks is no stranger to the Top 100 lists. He was #19 on their list in 2010 and #45 in 2011 before dropping out of the last this past year. Oswaldo Arcia hasn’t been on Baseball America’s Top 100 before, but he put together quite the offensive season at age 21. I fully expect both of them to be in the Top 100. What about Eddie Rosario? Will missing a month of the season keep him out of the Top 100? Kyle Gibson was #34 in 2011 after being #61 in 2010. Although he pitched very little in 2012, could he make the list again with a strong AFL showing? What about Jose (JO) Berrios? The Twins first supplemental first-round draft pick this year just dominated the rookie leagues. I figure that there are four ‘for-sures’ to be Top 100, and I listed three others that we could make a strong case for making it. More important than the actual list itself is the fact that the Twins do have a lot of high-ceiling prospects again. But, what does that really mean? What has being a Baseball America Top 100 prospect meant over the last 23 years? Let’s take a look: 1990 – Willie Banks (13), Johnny Ard (46), Kevin Tapani (88) 1991 – Willie Banks (15), Rich Garces (16), Chuck Knoblauch (72) 1992 – David McCarty (22), Pat Mahomes (25), Midre Cummings (33), Willie Banks (68), Alan Newman (96), Todd Ritchie (98) 1993 – David McCarthy (16), Mike Trombley (53), Rich Becker (78) 1994 – Rich Becker (37), Todd Ritchie (78), LaTroy Hawkins (92) 1995 – LaTroy Hawkins (30), Todd Walker (40), Marc Barcelo (70) 1996 – Todd Walker (22), Jose Valentin (58), LaTroy Hawkins (70), Dan Serafini (76) 1997 – Todd Walker (7), Luis Rivas (70), Torii Hunter (79) 1998 – Eric Milton (25), Luis Rivas (55), David Ortiz (84) 1999 – Michael Cuddyer (36), Michael Restovich (50), Luis Rivas (63), Cristian Guzman (68) 2000 – Michael Cuddyer (18), Michael Restovich (26), Matthew LeCroy (44), BJ Garbe (79), Luis Rivas (86) 2001 – Adam Johnson (41), Michael Cuddyer (55), Luis Rivas (93) 2002 – Joe Mauer (7), Justin Morneau (21), Michael Cuddyer (27), Michael Restovich (63), Adam Johnson (85) 2003 – Joe Mauer (4), Justin Morneau (14), Michael Cuddyer (17), Michael Restovich (37) 2004 – Joe Mauer (1), Justin Morneau (16), JD Durbin (66), Matt Moses (81), Jesse Crain (89) 2005 – Joe Mauer (1), Jason Kubel (17), Jesse Crain (63), JD Durbin (70) 2006 – Francisco Liriano (6), Jason Kubel (58), Matt Moses (75), Glen Perkins (91), Anthony Swarzak (100) 2007 – Matt Garza (21), Glen Perkins (66), Kevin Slowey (71), Chris Parmelee (94) 2008 – Deolis Guerra (35), Carlos Gomez (52), Nick Blackburn (56) 2009 – Ben Revere (59), Wilson Ramos (71) 2010 – Aaron Hicks (19), Wilson Ramos (58), Kyle Gibson (61), Miguel Sano (94) 2011 – Kyle Gibson (34), Aaron Hicks (45), Miguel Sano (60), Joe Benson (100) 2012 – Miguel Sano (18), Joe Benson (99) A couple of notes: Any question why the Twins struggled in the 1990s? How about all of the high school pitchers drafted high in the late 80’s and early 90s? Guys like Willie Banks, Johnny Ard, Pat Mahomes, Alan Newman, Todd Ritchie and Dan Serafini didn’t exactly pan out. LaTroy Hawkins was a success story after several years of struggling. Of course, Brad Radke was a high school draft pick who was never a top prospect, but he turned out alright. Based on his rankings, it sure would have been nice to see Rochester’s Michael Restovich get a real opportunity. Either that, or he’s a good example of a guy who hit a ton of HR in the Pacific Coast League and it wouldn’t translate to the big leagues? These Top 100 lists are a good illustration of the definition of prospects. Most of them don’t make it to elite status. Some of the top guys become stars, and others completely flame out. Some just become OK players or even role players. Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau and Michael Cuddyer turned out alright, I guess. I sometimes think that many Twins fans who talk about how bad the Twins farm system was a couple of years ago (and it was certainly not great) only had the incredible run of mid-‘00s prospects to compare to. In addition to those three, guys like Jason Kubel, Francisco Liriano and Glen Perkins were all prospects around the same time. Twins fans should be excited about the list of seven prospects mentioned early in this article. They are legitimate prospects and should give the Twins scouting departments a lot more credibility again. However, as with any prospects, there has to be an understanding of just what these rankings mean.
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On Sunday night, it was Glen Perkins who got the final three outs in the tenth inning to record the save in game two of a double-header sweep of the Detroit Tigers in Comerica Park. However, with a tied score in the bottom of the ninth, Jared Burton came into the game to face the Tigers 3, 4 and 5 hitters. Burton got MVP-candidate Miguel Cabrera to pop out for the first out. He then made Prince Fielder look silly, striking him out. Finally, he got Delmon Young to ground out. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] The Twins responded to Burton’s dynamic performance with a run in the top of the tenth frame. Glen Perkins came in for the bottom of the 10th inning and recorded the save. Just another reminder that the guy who comes in for the game’s toughest situations in the 7th or 8th innings are equally, if not more, valuable than the closer. Since Glen Perkins took over the closer’s role and is often pitching in less difficult situations, it has been a great opportunity for Burton to step up and really show how good he came be. Should the Twins consider locking up Jared Burton to a long-term, multi-year contract? In the past, the Twins have had mixed results with giving out long-term contracts to guys, buying out their free agent years. Johan Santana, Joe Mauer and Torii Hunter all signed multi-year deals to buy out some free agent time. The Denard Span long-term deal has been generally very well worth it. Sure, the Nick Blackburn deal wasn’t very good, but those happen. The Twins signed Jesse Crain to a three year deal, but it actually bought out two of his arbitration seasons. Burton signed with the Twins last November. After spending the past five seasons with the Cincinnati Reds. Special assistant Wayne Krivsky likely was very involved in that transaction. With about a week left in the season, Burton is 2-1 with a 2.01 ERA and a 0.89 WHIP. He has allowed just 5.9 hits per nine innings. He has given up just four home runs in 58.1 innings. Considering he gave up two homers in his first Twins outing of the season, he has been remarkable. One question with him when signed b the Twins was his control. His 2.2 walks per nine innings this year is by far better than the 3.5 walks per nine innings he had in 2009, his previous career-best. His 7.7 strikeouts per nine innings matches his career number in that category. Left-handed batters are hitting just .228 against him with a .702 OPS. Meanwhile, right-handed bats are hitting just .155 with a .428 OPS against him. 2012 has been a career-year for Jared Burton, but it isn’t as if it came completely out of nowhere. From the time he came up with the Reds in 2007 through 2009, he was very effective in late-inning situations for the Reds. He just missed so much time the past two seasons with injury. It’s hard to find perfect comparables to Burton who have been arbitration-eligible the last couple of years. Last year, Mike Adams was at the same arbitration-level of just over five years, and he got $4.4 million. The other relievers who signed via arbitration last offseason got between $1.05 and $1.2 million. I really believe that in arbitration, Burton would get a deal worth between $1.75 million and $2 million for 2013. Is Burton an injury risk? He had no injury problems in 2012, and with one more inning, he’ll match a career high. The Twins have taken care of him very well this year. In the first half, he did not pitch in back-to-back games. In the season’s first half, he pitched 35.1 innings. In the second half, he is at 23 innings. Through another full offseason, Burton should be at 100% going into spring training 2013. Here is what I would propose for a long-term deal for Jared Burton. I would want it to line up similarly to the deals that Jesse Crain got AFTER his three year deal. In his final arbitration year, he made $1.7 million. The Twins should feel good about the price they’ll pay in the following seasons. There is risk with Burton as he does have an injury past and he is 31 years old. Because of that, he should (or at least could) be willing to accept a little less per year for some long-term security. (At the same time, he may want to risk having another healthy, dominant season and finding out how he can do in free agency.) I would offer him $1.7 million in 2013, $2.2 million in 2014, and $2.5 million in 2015 with an option for $3 million in 2016 with a $100,000 buyout. All told, that’s a three year, $6.5 million with that fourth-year option. They could even do like they did with the Glen Perkins extension and add some incentives based on Games Completed. What do you think? First, would you explore a long-term contract with Jared Burton. Second, I’ve proposed 3 years and $6.5 million. What would your reaction be if you heard the Twins made the transaction?
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[ATTACH=CONFIG]2389[/ATTACH] On Sunday night, it was Glen Perkins who got the final three outs in the tenth inning to record the save in game two of a double-header sweep of the Detroit Tigers in Comerica Park. However, with a tied score in the bottom of the ninth, Jared Burton came into the game to face the Tigers 3, 4 and 5 hitters. Burton got MVP-candidate Miguel Cabrera to pop out for the first out. He then made Prince Fielder look silly, striking him out. Finally, he got Delmon Young to ground out. The Twins responded to Burton’s dynamic performance with a run in the top of the tenth frame. Glen Perkins came in for the bottom of the 10th inning and recorded the save. Just another reminder that the guy who comes in for the game’s toughest situations in the 7th or 8th innings are equally, if not more, valuable than the closer. Since Glen Perkins took over the closer’s role and is often pitching in less difficult situations, it has been a great opportunity for Burton to step up and really show how good he came be. Should the Twins consider locking up Jared Burton to a long-term, multi-year contract? In the past, the Twins have had mixed results with giving out long-term contracts to guys, buying out their free agent years. Johan Santana, Joe Mauer and Torii Hunter all signed multi-year deals to buy out some free agent time. The Denard Span long-term deal has been generally very well worth it. Sure, the Nick Blackburn deal wasn’t very good, but those happen. The Twins signed Jesse Crain to a three year deal, but it actually bought out two of his arbitration seasons. Burton signed with the Twins last November. After spending the past five seasons with the Cincinnati Reds. Special assistant Wayne Krivsky likely was very involved in that transaction. With about a week left in the season, Burton is 2-1 with a 2.01 ERA and a 0.89 WHIP. He has allowed just 5.9 hits per nine innings. He has given up just four home runs in 58.1 innings. Considering he gave up two homers in his first Twins outing of the season, he has been remarkable. One question with him when signed b the Twins was his control. His 2.2 walks per nine innings this year is by far better than the 3.5 walks per nine innings he had in 2009, his previous career-best. His 7.7 strikeouts per nine innings matches his career number in that category. Left-handed batters are hitting just .228 against him with a .702 OPS. Meanwhile, right-handed bats are hitting just .155 with a .428 OPS against him. 2012 has been a career-year for Jared Burton, but it isn’t as if it came completely out of nowhere. From the time he came up with the Reds in 2007 through 2009, he was very effective in late-inning situations for the Reds. He just missed so much time the past two seasons with injury. It’s hard to find perfect comparables to Burton who have been arbitration-eligible the last couple of years. Last year, Mike Adams was at the same arbitration-level of just over five years, and he got $4.4 million. The other relievers who signed via arbitration last offseason got between $1.05 and $1.2 million. I really believe that in arbitration, Burton would get a deal worth between $1.75 million and $2 million for 2013. Is Burton an injury risk? He had no injury problems in 2012, and with one more inning, he’ll match a career high. The Twins have taken care of him very well this year. In the first half, he did not pitch in back-to-back games. In the season’s first half, he pitched 35.1 innings. In the second half, he is at 23 innings. Through another full offseason, Burton should be at 100% going into spring training 2013. Here is what I would propose for a long-term deal for Jared Burton. I would want it to line up similarly to the deals that Jesse Crain got AFTER his three year deal. In his final arbitration year, he made $1.7 million. The Twins should feel good about the price they’ll pay in the following seasons. There is risk with Burton as he does have an injury past and he is 31 years old. Because of that, he should (or at least could) be willing to accept a little less per year for some long-term security. (At the same time, he may want to risk having another healthy, dominant season and finding out how he can do in free agency.) I would offer him $1.7 million in 2013, $2.2 million in 2014, and $2.5 million in 2015 with an option for $3 million in 2016 with a $100,000 buyout. All told, that’s a three year, $6.5 million with that fourth-year option. They could even do like they did with the Glen Perkins extension and add some incentives based on Games Completed. What do you think? First, would you explore a long-term contract with Jared Burton. Second, I’ve proposed 3 years and $6.5 million. What would your reaction be if you heard the Twins made the transaction?
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Rightfully so, the big story from the Twins 6-4 win in Cleveland was Liam Hendriks. The right-hander won his first big league game in his 18th big league start. It was a tremendous moment for the Australian. However, it was also a huge night for another Twins player. He went 4-5 with a home run and four RBI. He had two RBI singles, and the home run came with a runner on. It’s been a huge season for the powerful outfielder. After last night, he now has career-highs with 35 home runs and 110 RBI.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] If he plays in just four of the final 14 Twins games, he will play in the most games he has played in. Being able to DH at times certainly helped keep his bat in the lineup. Manager Ron Gardenhire has done a terrific job of giving him occasional days off to help keep him healthy and strong. Here are the single-season home run leaders in the Twins 52-season history: [TABLE=align: center] Hitter Home Runs Year Harmon Killebrew 49 1964 Harmon Killebrew 49 1969 Harmon Killebrew 48 1962 Harmon Killebrew 46 1961 Harmon Killebrew 45 1963 Harmon Killebrew 44 1967 Harmon Killebrew 40 1970 Harmon Killebrew 39 1966 Josh Willingham 35 2012 Bob Allison 35 1963 Gary Gaetti 34 1086 Kent Hrbek 34 1987 Justin Morneau 34 2006 [/TABLE] The relationship between Willingham and the Twins seems to align perfectly. When Terry Ryan let Michael Cuddyer go to Colorado for 3 years and $31.5 million, some Twins fans were upset. When the Twins signed Willingham for 3 years and $21 million days later, Twins fans had mixed emotions. Cuddyer was the face that Twins fans saw most, and he was most often the voice of the Twins players, always willing to talk after games, good or bad. Stat-heads continued to write that the Twins got the better player for $10.5 million less. There is no question, not only was Willingham the Twins biggest free agent signing in their history, he clearly has been the Twins best free agent signing. Last month, Willingham let it be known that he would be open to talking to the Twins about signing an extension. He is owned $7 million in 2013 and $7 million in 2014. If Willingham were a free agent following the 2012 season, what would he get in the free agent market? Despite the fact the he will turn 34 years old about the time spring training starts next February, he would most likely get a deal in the three year, $30 million range. If he were willing to play the 2015 season at $7 million, it would be like signing him to a three year, $21 million contract again. The Twins have long had a need for right-handed power in the middle of their lineup. Can Trevor Plouffe take that next step in his career to provide consistent power? Willingham gives the Twins what they have needed for years. Also, unlike many Twins hitters in recent years, he is not intimidated by Target Field. Fangraphs is a tremendous site for baseball information and statistics. They have a stat called “Value” the takes a look at how players compare to a ‘replacement players’ and based on that, they place a “value” on his season. Right now, Willingham’s 2012 “Value” is placed at $17.5 million (and that factors in his negative defense). He has been consistently valuable since 2006, his first full season. [TABLE=align: center] Year “Value” 2006 $7.7 M 2007 $8.6 M 2008 $13.3 M 2009 $11.4 M 2010 $12.0 M 2011 $9.1 M 2012 $17.5 M [/TABLE] There are reasons that not adding a year to Willingham’s contract are probably the right thing to do. The Twins do have lots of outfield prospects. Denard Span’s name will likely be remain in trade rumors and Ben Revere has shown he can be a solid big leaguer. Oswaldo Arcia, Aaron Hicks and Joe Benson are all prospects that could be ready as early as sometime in 2013. Many believe that Miguel Sano will be ready by late 2014 or 2015 and could be in the outfield. The other side of that remains that you never know how good prospects will actually be no matter how elite their prospect status. Harmon Killebrew had all those 40 home runs seasons, but his last home run season was in his age-34 season in 1970. He then hit 28 homers in 1971 and 26 homers in 1972, still good power numbers. Over the final three seasons of his career, he combined to hit 32 more home runs. Of course, that isn’t to say that Willigham’s last great season would be in 2012, but that trajectory of declining numbers certainly is not unusual. The other angle for not extending Willingham beyond 2014 is that right now his value is likely the highest it would ever be. The Twins are likely a couple of years from competing for another division title, so as much as Willingham is great in the middle of the Twins lineup, he is someone that the Twins could get a very nice player/prospect return from in a trade. Willingham is right in making his request to add another year to stay with the Twins known. As a Twins fan, I want to hear that. It is wise for the Twins to let 2013 play out before considering extending Willingham. It will be another year to see how he performs as well as seeing how the prospects progress. Finally, as Twins fans, I think it’s wise just to sit back and marvel at what an incredible season 2012 has been for Josh Willingham, and leave it at that for now!
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[ATTACH=CONFIG]2372[/ATTACH] Rightfully so, the big story from the Twins 6-4 win in Cleveland was Liam Hendriks. The right-hander won his first big league game in his 18th big league start. It was a tremendous moment for the Australian. However, it was also a huge night for another Twins player. He went 4-5 with a home run and four RBI. He had two RBI singles, and the home run came with a runner on. It’s been a huge season for the powerful outfielder. After last night, he now has career-highs with 35 home runs and 110 RBI. If he plays in just four of the final 14 Twins games, he will play in the most games he has played in. Being able to DH at times certainly helped keep his bat in the lineup. Manager Ron Gardenhire has done a terrific job of giving him occasional days off to help keep him healthy and strong. Here are the single-season home run leaders in the Twins 52-season history: [TABLE=align: center] Hitter Home Runs Year Harmon Killebrew 49 1964 Harmon Killebrew 49 1969 Harmon Killebrew 48 1962 Harmon Killebrew 46 1961 Harmon Killebrew 45 1963 Harmon Killebrew 44 1967 Harmon Killebrew 40 1970 Harmon Killebrew 39 1966 Josh Willingham 35 2012 Bob Allison 35 1963 Gary Gaetti 34 1086 Kent Hrbek 34 1987 Justin Morneau 34 2006 [/TABLE] The relationship between Willingham and the Twins seems to align perfectly. When Terry Ryan let Michael Cuddyer go to Colorado for 3 years and $31.5 million, some Twins fans were upset. When the Twins signed Willingham for 3 years and $21 million days later, Twins fans had mixed emotions. Cuddyer was the face that Twins fans saw most, and he was most often the voice of the Twins players, always willing to talk after games, good or bad. Stat-heads continued to write that the Twins got the better player for $10.5 million less. There is no question, not only was Willingham the Twins biggest free agent signing in their history, he clearly has been the Twins best free agent signing. Last month, Willingham let it be known that he would be open to talking to the Twins about signing an extension. He is owned $7 million in 2013 and $7 million in 2014. If Willingham were a free agent following the 2012 season, what would he get in the free agent market? Despite the fact the he will turn 34 years old about the time spring training starts next February, he would most likely get a deal in the three year, $30 million range. If he were willing to play the 2015 season at $7 million, it would be like signing him to a three year, $21 million contract again. The Twins have long had a need for right-handed power in the middle of their lineup. Can Trevor Plouffe take that next step in his career to provide consistent power? Willingham gives the Twins what they have needed for years. Also, unlike many Twins hitters in recent years, he is not intimidated by Target Field. Fangraphs is a tremendous site for baseball information and statistics. They have a stat called “Value” the takes a look at how players compare to a ‘replacement players’ and based on that, they place a “value” on his season. Right now, Willingham’s 2012 “Value” is placed at $17.5 million (and that factors in his negative defense). He has been consistently valuable since 2006, his first full season. [TABLE=align: center] Year “Value” 2006 $7.7 M 2007 $8.6 M 2008 $13.3 M 2009 $11.4 M 2010 $12.0 M 2011 $9.1 M 2012 $17.5 M [/TABLE] There are reasons that not adding a year to Willingham’s contract are probably the right thing to do. The Twins do have lots of outfield prospects. Denard Span’s name will likely be remain in trade rumors and Ben Revere has shown he can be a solid big leaguer. Oswaldo Arcia, Aaron Hicks and Joe Benson are all prospects that could be ready as early as sometime in 2013. Many believe that Miguel Sano will be ready by late 2014 or 2015 and could be in the outfield. The other side of that remains that you never know how good prospects will actually be no matter how elite their prospect status. Harmon Killebrew had all those 40 home runs seasons, but his last home run season was in his age-34 season in 1970. He then hit 28 homers in 1971 and 26 homers in 1972, still good power numbers. Over the final three seasons of his career, he combined to hit 32 more home runs. Of course, that isn’t to say that Willigham’s last great season would be in 2012, but that trajectory of declining numbers certainly is not unusual. The other angle for not extending Willingham beyond 2014 is that right now his value is likely the highest it would ever be. The Twins are likely a couple of years from competing for another division title, so as much as Willingham is great in the middle of the Twins lineup, he is someone that the Twins could get a very nice player/prospect return from in a trade. Willingham is right in making his request to add another year to stay with the Twins known. As a Twins fan, I want to hear that. It is wise for the Twins to let 2013 play out before considering extending Willingham. It will be another year to see how he performs as well as seeing how the prospects progress. Finally, as Twins fans, I think it’s wise just to sit back and marvel at what an incredible season 2012 has been for Josh Willingham, and leave it at that for now!
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It's been a long season for the Twins and their fans. Many years at this time, I would say, "Boy, April doesn't seem like that long ago!" This year, it has been a very, very long season and April does seem like forever ago. However, starting tonight, the Twins will have just 15 more games to play this season, and although it's been a frustrating season, again, there are still plenty of reasons for fans to "play out the string." The best reason is "Because it's Baseball." Here are some more: [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]Just Be Better Than Last Year The Twins enter this series with a record of 60-87. Maybe they can reel off a 15-game winning streak and end up 75-87. A nice goal might be to go 8-7 in the last 15 games and finish 68-94. To avoid losing 99 games again, the Twins need to win four more games. With the hitters healthy, that seems to be a fair goal. Milestone Chasing There may not be any huge milestone career numbers that Twins players are chasing, but the M&M Boys can continue their rise up the Twins leader boards. Joe Mauer needs 1 RBI to tie Michael Cuddyer for 10th on the Twins all-time list with 580. Justin Morneau needs 12 RBI to catch up to Bob Allison for 5th on the Twins RBI list with 796. Justin Morneau needs 2 doubles to tie Torii Hunter for 6th on the Twins career list with 259. If Joe Mauer can notch 6 more doubles, he would tie Gary Gaetti at 252 for 8th all-time. Six more walks and Joe Mauer would tie Roy Smalley with 549 walks. Smalley is currently sixth on the all-time Twins list. With one more sacrifice fly, Justin Morneau ties Kirby Puckett for 4th place with 58. If he hits two sacrifice flies, he ties Gary Gaetti for 3rd place with 59. Can Mauer Lead the League? Are we talking about Batting Average? If so, here are the current leaders: Miguel Cabrera .330 Mike Trout .329 Derek Jeter .323 Joe Mauer .321 Let's say that it will take a .330 batting average for Mauer to win the batting title. Let's also say that over the final 15 Twins games, Mauer will get 51 at bats to bring his season total to 540. He would need to go 21-51 (.412) to hit .330. Of course, any of those above him are capable of a similar run and are capable of hitting over .330. At any rate, Mauer still could win an unprecedented fourth batting title, but it will take some serious work! If we are talking about On-Base Percentage, which in most ways is more important than Batting Average, then Mauer is certainly the favorite. Here is how the OBP leader board looks heading into Tuesday: Joe Mauer .415 Prince Fielder .404 Mike Trout .396 Miguel Cabrera .395 David Murphy .391 No matter how you look at it, Joe Mauer returned to form in 2012. Three More Opportunities With fifteen games left, my Minnesota Math tells me that the current five in the Twins starting rotation will each get three more starts. That is, they will each get three more opportunities to show the Twins manager, pitching coach, GM, other teams, and fans what they are capable of. Scott Diamond seems all but guaranteed a rotation spot in 2013, but I'm sure he'd like to finish strong. He is currently sitting at 188.1 combined innings on the season (153.2 with the Twins, 34.2 with Rochester). Samuel Deduno seemed to have nearly locked in a 2013 starting gig with the Twins until he struggled with his control again in his most recent start. PJ Walters needs to try to show that his first three Twins starts were the real him and the terrible starting since then is the anomaly. Esmerling Vasquez needs to let the brass know if he can throw enough strikes to be a starter or a reliever. Liam Hendriks needs to relax and pitch like we all know that he can. Three starts is obviously a small sample size no matter how you look at it, but coupled with what they've done to this point, it's the beginning of their case. Firsts As you all know, I love seeing players come up through the minor league ranks and succeed. Chris Herrmann got a late call up here in September. He made his big league debut on Sunday when he grounded out to second base in a pinch hitting effort. I'm sure he'll make a couple of starts, and it will be great to see him get his first major league hit. However, if there is one thing that I want to see more than anything in these final 15 games, it is a Liam Hendriks win. It would be great for him to get Number One out of the way before the offseason so that he doesn't have to carry that with him. Yes, it has been a very long, very frustrating season in many ways, but hey, it's still baseball. It's still the best game that there is. Last night, the Twins didn't play. I decided to watch the first episode of NBC's Revolution. That's an hour of my life that I can't get back, and if that's what we have to look forward to watching on TV until the Twins come back next spring, it is going to be a very, very long winter!! So, enjoy the final couple of weeks for what they are.
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The Final Fifteen; What to Watch For
Seth Stohs commented on Seth Stohs's blog entry in SethSpeaks.net
[ATTACH=CONFIG]2360[/ATTACH] It's been a long season for the Twins and their fans. Many years at this time, I would say, "Boy, April doesn't seem like that long ago!" This year, it has been a very, very long season and April does seem like forever ago. However, starting tonight, the Twins will have just 15 more games to play this season, and although it's been a frustrating season, again, there are still plenty of reasons for fans to "play out the string." The best reason is "Because it's Baseball." Here are some more: Just Be Better Than Last Year The Twins enter this series with a record of 60-87. Maybe they can reel off a 15-game winning streak and end up 75-87. A nice goal might be to go 8-7 in the last 15 games and finish 68-94. To avoid losing 99 games again, the Twins need to win four more games. With the hitters healthy, that seems to be a fair goal. Milestone Chasing There may not be any huge milestone career numbers that Twins players are chasing, but the M&M Boys can continue their rise up the Twins leader boards. Joe Mauer needs 1 RBI to tie Michael Cuddyer for 10th on the Twins all-time list with 580. Justin Morneau needs 12 RBI to catch up to Bob Allison for 5th on the Twins RBI list with 796. Justin Morneau needs 2 doubles to tie Torii Hunter for 6th on the Twins career list with 259. If Joe Mauer can notch 6 more doubles, he would tie Gary Gaetti at 252 for 8th all-time. Six more walks and Joe Mauer would tie Roy Smalley with 549 walks. Smalley is currently sixth on the all-time Twins list. With one more sacrifice fly, Justin Morneau ties Kirby Puckett for 4th place with 58. If he hits two sacrifice flies, he ties Gary Gaetti for 3rd place with 59. Can Mauer Lead the League? Are we talking about Batting Average? If so, here are the current leaders: Miguel Cabrera .330 Mike Trout .329 Derek Jeter .323 Joe Mauer .321 Let's say that it will take a .330 batting average for Mauer to win the batting title. Let's also say that over the final 15 Twins games, Mauer will get 51 at bats to bring his season total to 540. He would need to go 21-51 (.412) to hit .330. Of course, any of those above him are capable of a similar run and are capable of hitting over .330. At any rate, Mauer still could win an unprecedented fourth batting title, but it will take some serious work! If we are talking about On-Base Percentage, which in most ways is more important than Batting Average, then Mauer is certainly the favorite. Here is how the OBP leader board looks heading into Tuesday: Joe Mauer .415 Prince Fielder .404 Mike Trout .396 Miguel Cabrera .395 David Murphy .391 No matter how you look at it, Joe Mauer returned to form in 2012. Three More Opportunities With fifteen games left, my Minnesota Math tells me that the current five in the Twins starting rotation will each get three more starts. That is, they will each get three more opportunities to show the Twins manager, pitching coach, GM, other teams, and fans what they are capable of. Scott Diamond seems all but guaranteed a rotation spot in 2013, but I'm sure he'd like to finish strong. He is currently sitting at 188.1 combined innings on the season (153.2 with the Twins, 34.2 with Rochester). Samuel Deduno seemed to have nearly locked in a 2013 starting gig with the Twins until he struggled with his control again in his most recent start. PJ Walters needs to try to show that his first three Twins starts were the real him and the terrible starting since then is the anomaly. Esmerling Vasquez needs to let the brass know if he can throw enough strikes to be a starter or a reliever. Liam Hendriks needs to relax and pitch like we all know that he can. Three starts is obviously a small sample size no matter how you look at it, but coupled with what they've done to this point, it's the beginning of their case. Firsts As you all know, I love seeing players come up through the minor league ranks and succeed. Chris Herrmann got a late call up here in September. He made his big league debut on Sunday when he grounded out to second base in a pinch hitting effort. I'm sure he'll make a couple of starts, and it will be great to see him get his first major league hit. However, if there is one thing that I want to see more than anything in these final 15 games, it is a Liam Hendriks win. It would be great for him to get Number One out of the way before the offseason so that he doesn't have to carry that with him. Yes, it has been a very long, very frustrating season in many ways, but hey, it's still baseball. It's still the best game that there is. Last night, the Twins didn't play. I decided to watch the first episode of NBC's Revolution. That's an hour of my life that I can't get back, and if that's what we have to look forward to watching on TV until the Twins come back next spring, it is going to be a very, very long winter!! So, enjoy the final couple of weeks for what they are. -
Earlier in the week, we announced the Minor league Relief Pitcher of the Year and the Minor League Starting Pitcher of the Year for the Twins. Today, it’s time to point out the hitters that performed very well in the Twins minor league system. There were a lot of great performances and performers that don’t even make the top six for various reasons, be it injury, big league time or simply playing in a short-season league. Here are three honorable mentions that I think will illustrate just how good the top 6 are! Honorable Mention Chris Parmelee – Rochester Red Wings – 77-228 - .338/.457/.645 (1.102) – 17-2B, 1-3B, 17-HR, 49-RBI, 45-R Nate Roberts – Beloit Snappers – 84-281 - .299/.433/.427 (.860) – 18-2B, 3-3B, 4-HR, 33-RBI, 60-R Max Kepler – Elizabethton Twins – 69-232 - .297/.387/.539 (.925) – 16-2B, 5-3B, 10-HR, 49-RBI, 40-R Hitter of the Year Nominees There were a lot more good hitters up for Hitter of the Year consideration, or at least mention, than there were #6 – Eddie Rosario – Beloit Snappers (123-411 - .299/.347/.499 (.846), with 35 doubles, 4 triples, 13 HR, 74 RBI, 62 R) Consider the numbers Rosario put up for the Snappers in 2012, and then remember that he missed about six weeks of the season after surgery on his mouth. What could he have done with another 120 plate appearances? After hitting 21 homers in E-Town in 2011, it is no surprise that he hit less home runs in the bigger ballparks, but he still hit for average and hit a lot of doubles. Rosario is so good at letting the ball get deep and uses the whole field well. And, his transition to 2B went well in year one, although there is still much room for improvement. #5 – Josmil Pinto – Ft. Myers Miracle / New Britain Rock Cats (117-396 - .295/.362/.482 (.844), with 26 doubles, 3 triples, 14 HR, 60 RBI, 53 R) One of the organization’s more interesting decisions when the offseason starts involves Pinto. The catcher had a tremendous 2012 season. After hitting .295 with 22 doubles and 12 homers in 93 games with the Miracle, he was promoted to New Britain to help them in their playoff push as their DH. He hit .298 with seven extra base hits (including two homers) in the final 12 games. The 23-year-old can become a six-year minor league free agent following the World Series. #4 – Chris Colabello – New Britain Rock Cats (141-496 - .284/.358/.478 (.836), with 37 doubles, 1 triple, 19 HR, 98 RBI, 78 R) A year ago at this time, Colabello was finishing another season, his seventh, with the Worcester Tornadoes of the independent Can-Am League. Baseball America would soon name him their Independent League Player of the Year. The Twins, needing another bat for New Britain, gave him an opportunity. He made the best of it! The 28-year-old who had never played a single game for an affiliated team was a very consistent producer in the middle of the Rock Cats lineup all season long. #3 – Aaron Hicks – New Britain Rock Cats (.286/.384/.460 (.844), with 21 doubles, 11 triples, 13 HR, 61 RBI, 100 R, 32 SB) When the Twins used the 14th overall pick in the 2008 draft, scouts loved it because Hicks is a great athlete with the potential to be a 5-tool player. As is normal for young players, Hicks struggled in Beloit for a season-and-a-half and last year in Ft. Myers. The Twins pushed him to the AFL last season where he put up very good numbers. They again pushed him to New Britain to start this season, and he responded. Following the All Star break, he hit .301/.409/.480. He did post an OPS of .881 against lefties. Very important, he posted a very good .828 OPS against right-handed pitchers, an area he needed to improve upon. Once Hicks was moved to the leadoff position, his patience at the plate worked to his advantage. He got on base, stole bases and scored a lot of runs. The well-rounded game of Hicks finally started filling up box scores and stat lines! #2 – Miguel Sano – Beloit Snappers (118-457 - .258/.373/.521 (893), with 28 doubles, 4 triples, 28 HR, 100 RBI, 75 R) Expectations were high for Sano when the 2012 season began. I think it’s safe to say that Sano met all expectations. He didn’t hit for much average, but he hit for a lot of power. He drove in runs. He struck out a ton (144 times), and he committed a lot of errors (42). He certainly showed improvement throughout the season. His first-half OPS was .841. After the All-Star break, his OPS was .955. He had less than half as many errors in the second half as in the first. He was named the MWL Prospect of the Year and the Snappers named him their co-MVP. It was a nice first full-season performance for the 19-year-old. Hitter of the Year Oswaldo Arcia – Ft. Myers Miracle / New Britain Rock Cats (150-469 - .320/.388/.539 (.925), with 36 doubles, 8 triples, 17 HR, 98 RBI, 76 R) Signed in July of 2007, Arcia was an easy choice to add to the Twins 40 man roster last offseason. In 2010, he was the Appy League Player of the Year when he hit .375 with an OPS of 1.096. In 2011, he spent a month in Beloit before elbow surgery. Upon his return, he went to Ft. Myers. That’s where he began the 2012 season. In 55 games, he hit .309 with 26 extra base hits. He played in the FSL All Star game and had a double off of Jameson Taillon in the Futures Game before being promoted to New Britain. That’s when his offensive game really took off. In 69 games with the Rock Cats, he hit .328 with 35 extra base hits. He was an RBI machine. He plays a very good outfield with a strong arm. Arcia will return to big league spring training in 2013, and depending upon offseason moves, he will get a chance to impress the coaching staff with his power. So there you have it. There were some really terrific offensively performances by Twins minor leaguers in 2012. It’s especially nice to see big years coming from some of the team’s top prospects. Feel free to discuss.
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- oswaldo arcia
- miguel sano
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(and 3 more)
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Twins Daily Minor League Hitter of the Year
Seth Stohs commented on Seth Stohs's blog entry in SethSpeaks.net
[ATTACH=CONFIG]2337[/ATTACH] Earlier in the week, we announced the Minor league Relief Pitcher of the Year and the Minor League Starting Pitcher of the Year for the Twins. Today, it’s time to point out the hitters that performed very well in the Twins minor league system. There were a lot of great performances and performers that don’t even make the top six for various reasons, be it injury, big league time or simply playing in a short-season league. Here are three honorable mentions that I think will illustrate just how good the top 6 are! Honorable Mention Chris Parmelee – Rochester Red Wings – 77-228 - .338/.457/.645 (1.102) – 17-2B, 1-3B, 17-HR, 49-RBI, 45-R Nate Roberts – Beloit Snappers – 84-281 - .299/.433/.427 (.860) – 18-2B, 3-3B, 4-HR, 33-RBI, 60-R Max Kepler – Elizabethton Twins – 69-232 - .297/.387/.539 (.925) – 16-2B, 5-3B, 10-HR, 49-RBI, 40-R Hitter of the Year Nominees There were a lot more good hitters up for Hitter of the Year consideration, or at least mention, than there were #6 – Eddie Rosario – Beloit Snappers (123-411 - .299/.347/.499 (.846), with 35 doubles, 4 triples, 13 HR, 74 RBI, 62 R) Consider the numbers Rosario put up for the Snappers in 2012, and then remember that he missed about six weeks of the season after surgery on his mouth. What could he have done with another 120 plate appearances? After hitting 21 homers in E-Town in 2011, it is no surprise that he hit less home runs in the bigger ballparks, but he still hit for average and hit a lot of doubles. Rosario is so good at letting the ball get deep and uses the whole field well. And, his transition to 2B went well in year one, although there is still much room for improvement. #5 – Josmil Pinto – Ft. Myers Miracle / New Britain Rock Cats (117-396 - .295/.362/.482 (.844), with 26 doubles, 3 triples, 14 HR, 60 RBI, 53 R) One of the organization’s more interesting decisions when the offseason starts involves Pinto. The catcher had a tremendous 2012 season. After hitting .295 with 22 doubles and 12 homers in 93 games with the Miracle, he was promoted to New Britain to help them in their playoff push as their DH. He hit .298 with seven extra base hits (including two homers) in the final 12 games. The 23-year-old can become a six-year minor league free agent following the World Series. #4 – Chris Colabello – New Britain Rock Cats (141-496 - .284/.358/.478 (.836), with 37 doubles, 1 triple, 19 HR, 98 RBI, 78 R) A year ago at this time, Colabello was finishing another season, his seventh, with the Worcester Tornadoes of the independent Can-Am League. Baseball America would soon name him their Independent League Player of the Year. The Twins, needing another bat for New Britain, gave him an opportunity. He made the best of it! The 28-year-old who had never played a single game for an affiliated team was a very consistent producer in the middle of the Rock Cats lineup all season long. #3 – Aaron Hicks – New Britain Rock Cats (.286/.384/.460 (.844), with 21 doubles, 11 triples, 13 HR, 61 RBI, 100 R, 32 SB) When the Twins used the 14th pick in the 2008 draft, scouts loved it because Hicks is a great athlete with the potential to be a 5-tool player. As is normal for young players, Hicks struggled in Beloit for a season-and-a-half and last year in Ft. Myers. The Twins pushed him to the AFL last season where he put up very good numbers. They again pushed him to New Britain to start this season, and he responded. Following the All Star break, he hit .301/.409/.480. He did post an OPS of .881 against lefties. Very important, he posted a very good .828 OPS against right-handed pitchers, an area he needed to improve upon. Once Hicks was moved to the leadoff position, his patience at the plate worked to his advantage. He got on base, stole bases and scored a lot of runs. The well-rounded game of Hicks finally started filling up box scores and stat lines! #2 – Miguel Sano – Beloit Snappers (118-457 - .258/.373/.521 (893), with 28 doubles, 4 triples, 28 HR, 100 RBI, 75 R) Expectations were high for Sano when the 2012 season began. I think it’s safe to say that Sano met all expectations. He didn’t hit for much average, but he hit for a lot of power. He drove in runs. He struckout a ton (144 times), and he committed a lot of errors (42). He certainly showed improvement throughout the season. His first-half OPS was .841. After the All-Star break, his OPS was .955. He had less than half as many errors in the second half as in the first. He was named the MWL Prospect of the Year and the Snappers named him their co-MVP. It was a nice first full-season performance for the 19-year-old. Hitter of the Year – [ATTACH=CONFIG]2338[/ATTACH] Oswaldo Arcia – Ft. Myers Miracle / New Britain Rock Cats (150-469 - .320/.388/.539 (.925), with 36 doubles, 8 triples, 17 HR, 98 RBI, 76 R) Signed in July of 2007, Arcia was an easy choice to add to the Twins 40 man roster last offseason. In 2010, he was the Appy League Player of the Year when he hit .375 with an OPS of 1.096. In 2011, he spent a month in Beloit before elbow surgery. Upon his return, he went to Ft. Myers. That’s where he began the 2012 season. In 55 games, he hit .309 with 26 extra base hits. He played in the FSL All Star game and had a double off of Jameson Taillon in the Futures Game before being promoted to New Britain. That’s when his offensive game really took off. In 69 games with the Rock Cats, he hit .328 with 35 extra base hits. He was an RBI machine. He plays a very good outfield with a strong arm. Arcia will return to big league spring training in 2013, and depending upon offseason moves, he will get a chance to impress the coaching staff with his power. So there you have it. There were some really terrific offensively performances by Twins minor leaguers in 2012. It’s especially nice to see big years coming from some of the team’s top prospects. Feel free to discuss. -

