Seth Stohs

The Twins recorded the Torii Awards and now we as fans get to see the event (ok, can an event be 7 minutes? Sure.). This was a lot of fun to watch. Check out The Torii Awards here.

I mean, people know how I feel about the whole "Too Old for the League" thing when it comes to possible big league future. But when it does come to prospect lists, it does come into play. Also, when you look at the tools, he doesn't have any that stand out. Trey, and Tanner, and "Ballplayers." I've talked to both of them, and they understand that they're not "prospects." Talking to Joe on Saturday, he knows it too. They're all honest about it. The odds of them being big league starters is probably real low. But, what I always come back to is that if they keep putting up numbers that they did this year and move up and put up similar numbers, the Twins value their versatility and they're knowledge of the game, and who knows, they could end up being utility types or get a cup of coffee, stuff like that. I say that not to limit them. You never know if or when a player will bust out. Trey put up terrific numbers through 6-7 weeks. Had he carried that through for the full season, you just never know.

Jorge could be on the list. I'm sure he was considered. He was remarkably consistent the full year. Trey Vavra may have put up some huge numbers had he stayed with the Kernels. In fact, when he was hurt in late May, he led the team in homers. At the end of the season, he lead the Kernels in homers. But, he wouldn't have made the prospect list.

Vavra ended up with a broken bone in his ankle that wasn't found for quite some time. When I talked to him in early August, he was pretty frustrated that it hadn't been found earlier. He had surgery, I believe in early July. I talked to his dad in the clubhouse quite a while on Saturday morning. Said that he's feeling better now, getting in some swings and doing some running. It'll just take time and repetition. It'll be good for him to go to Australia and play. As for Cederoth, little - or nothing - has been said about his injury, which was listed as "illness." No one knows, and I frankly won't ask. It's good that he's in Instructs and throwing hard.

At Twins Daily this week, we will hand out some more 2015 Minnesota Twins awards. As you know, we believe in recognizing achievement and that’s what we’re doing here. The Twins Daily writers, including the minor league writers, had votes in each category. Today we begin with a look at the 2015 Most Improved Minnesota Twin, Aaron Hicks. Winning an award like “Most Improved” is one of those things that a player may never really want to win. By definition, it generally means that you weren’t really good the year before. However, it does mean that you were much better this year, and that’s obviously good. Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn, USA Today At Twins Daily this week, we will hand out some more 2015 Minnesota Twins awards. As you know, we believe in recognizing achievement and that’s what we’re doing here. The Twins Daily writers, including the minor league writers, had votes in each category. Today we begin with a look at the 2015 Most Improved Minnesota Twin, Aaron Hicks. Winning an award like “Most Improved” is one of those things that a player may never really want to win. By definition, it generally means that you weren’t really good the year before. However, it does mean that you were much better this year, and that’s obviously good. Show of hands, Twins Daily readers… How many of you had completely given up on Aaron Hicks after his first two big league seasons? I’m sure we could do a quick review of the Twins Daily forums from 2013 through spring training of 2015 and find a few threads on the subject. Aaron Hicks was considered a top prospect since the Twins made him the 14th overall pick in the 2008 draft out of high school in Long Beach, California. He was a Top 50 prospect in baseball according to Baseball America before the 2009, 2010 and 2011 seasons. After falling out of the Top 100 for a year, he came in at number 72 before the 2013 season. That was following a 2012 season in which he was the Twins minor league hitter of the year. In AA New Britain, he filled up the stat line very well. He hit .286/.384/.460 (.844) with 21 doubles, 11 triples, 13 home runs and 32 stolen bases. He scored 100 runs and drove in 61. That offseason, the Twins traded two starting centerfielders, Denard Span and Ben Revere, opening the door for Hicks. He had a huge spring training in 2013 and won the Opening Day centerfield job. In a meeting with the media before Saturday’s game, General Manager Terry Ryan was asked what a biggest misconception is about prospects. “Not all of them succeed. There’s no doubt about that. This is tough up here. No matter what you do in the minor leagues, you still have to prove it every step of the way whether you’re going from A-ball to AA, which is a pretty big jump. Then the biggest jump is from AAA to the Major Leagues.” Hicks made the jump from AA to the big leagues and really struggled. That final jump to big leaguer is the most difficult. In 150 big league games between 2013 and 2014, he hit a combined .201/.293/.323 (.606). The Twins reversed strategy in spring training in 2015. Though he had a solid spring, the organization decided it was best for Hicks to begin the season at AAA. In 38 games, he hit .342/.405/.544 (.948) with 13 doubles, four triples and three home runs. On May 12, he made his return to the big leagues. He went on the Disabled List twice this season, but in 97 total games with the Twins, he hit .256/.323/.398 (.721) with 11 doubles, three triples and 11 home runs. He also stole 13 bases. Just as important, he has greatly improved his defense. Consider his Defensive WAR (per FanGraphs) has gone from -5.7 in 2013 to -3.6 in 2014 to +2.1 in 2015. From year to year, that’s a significant improvement. His Offensive WAR (per FanGraphs) has gone from -10.2 in 2013 to -2.8 in 2014 to -0.8 in 2015. Often considered passive, Hicks incorporated a leg kick and a more aggressive approach. His walk rate dropped from 16% to about 9%. However, his strikeout percentage also dropped from 26% to about 17% Not only did he swing at more pitches, but he swung harder, looking to attack the ball rather than just put it in play. Hicks told me over the weekend that he began to worry less about striking out, realizing it was just another out. As soon as he stopped worrying about it so much and having fun, his strikeouts dropped. Hicks also gave a lot of credit to Torii Hunter for his and his team’s success. There are a lot of factors that can help explain Hicks’ improvement. Terry Ryan was asked about what he noticed in Hicks in 2015. “His confidence level has taken a positive note. There’s no doubt that he looks like he belongs. I think he feels like he belongs. I think Torii (Hunter), Paul (Molitor) and Butch Davis and the people directly responsible for him should get some credit, but most of all, he ought to get some credit. There’s a chance that he felt (Byron) Buxton. Some of that stuff is always a piece, and he doesn’t want to see anybody go by him, I wouldn’t think.” Ryan continued, “For the most part, we got some of that switch-hitting stuff out of the equation. I think he feels comfortable from both sides. It’s about his turn. What is he now, 26? That’s about the time you’re either going to make or break it. You get into that age area, do you want to be a guy or don’t you. It’s pretty much up to him. He’s had ample opportunity, I think everyone would agree with that. He’s done something with it. He’s had a nice little go here.” Aaron Hicks took big strides forward in 2015, offensively and defensively. It was an important season for him. What is very exciting for Twins fans is that Hicks has the ability to continue to improve. There’s no question that with his athleticism and talent, he can be even better. The biggest thing he will need to do is improve his consistency over the course of the season. Twins Daily would like to congratulate Aaron Hicks on his forward strides during the 2015 season. Tell us what you think. Was Aaron Hicks the Twins Most Improved Player in 2015 or would another candidate get your vote. Below are the votes of each of our eight voters and the final results. The Results 1.) Aaron Hicks 23 2.) Mike Pelfrey 8 3.) Eduardo Escobar/Kyle Gibson 6 4.) Trevor May/Tommy Milone 2 5.) Eduardo Nunez 1 The Votes Seth Stohs: 1.) Aaron Hicks, 2.) Mike Pelfrey, 3.) Tommy Milone Nick Nelson: 1.) Aaron Hicks, 2.) Mike Pelfrey, 3.) Kyle Gibson John Bonnes: 1.) Eduardo Escobar, 2.) Aaron Hicks, 3.) Mike Pelfrey Parker Hageman: 1.) Aaron Hicks, 2.) Mike Pelfrey, 3.) Tommy Milone Jeremy Nygaard: 1.) Aaron Hicks, 2.) Eduardo Escobar, 3.) Kyle Gibson Cody Christie: 1.) Aaron Hicks, 2.) Kyle Gibson, 3.) Mike Pelfrey Eric Pleiss: 1.) Aaron Hicks, 2.) Kyle Gibson, 3.) Eduardo Nunez Steve Lien: 1.) Aaron Hicks, 2.) Trevor May, 3.) Eduardo Escobar View full article

I like saying Quinton McCracken.

Arrieta, Kershaw and Greinke... but he's a solid #4!

I think Gardy makes a ton of sense with the Nationals.

It was a pleasant surprise when I walked in the press box early on Saturday morning and saw Steve sitting there. I think it's great that MSR helped Steve out, and obviously his writing is great. Duffey, Kepler and Buxton are all pretty quiet guys, so this is really good!

He absolutely deserves to be in the conversation and will get votes. However, I agree with others. It should probably be between Banister and Hinch, with Girardi and whoever the Blue Jays manager is also in the conversation.

We certainly appreciate that. It's been a lot more fun this season than in the past. Just a reminder though, we'll be around each day throughout the offseason too... Should be a lot of fun again!

This morning, Baseball America posted its 2015 Top 20 Midwest League Prospects. Two Twins showed up on the list: #4 Nick Gordon #18 Stephen Gonsalves

I mean, he did switch positions two years into his career, so the timeline isn't so bad. That said, I believe he is eligible for the Rule 5 this year, not that he's a real candidate for it. So, 2016 in Cedar Rapids will be important to determine where he can go.

Two years ago at this time, Dereck Rodriguez was in the Instructional League, making the transition from outfielder to pitcher. This season, he was named the Pitcher of the Year in the Appalachian League. The Hardball Times wrote an article on Rodriguez. Granted, his 2015 timeline/teams listing isn't exactly accurate, but it's a good article.

We asked for this! We wanted this! Meaningful games in September, and now Meaningful games in October. This is fun, but I know I have no fingernails or hair remaining, and I'm OK with that. Nick wrote earlier this week about the Twins' resiliency, and it was again on display in this game. The Twins took an early lead. They got a terrific start from rookie Tyler Duffey which ended in unfortunate fashion. The Twins showed again their ability to come back and take advantage of opportunities to pull out an important 4-2 win in Cleveland. Below, you can follow the ups and downs of the game. It was a topsy-turvy game with many ups and downs. The win expectancy went back and forth several times throughout the late innings. Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson, USA Today We asked for this! We wanted this! Meaningful games in September, and now Meaningful games in October. This is fun, but I know I have no fingernails or hair remaining, and I'm OK with that. Nick wrote earlier this week about the Twins' resiliency, and it was again on display in this game. The Twins took an early lead. They got a terrific start from rookie Tyler Duffey which ended in unfortunate fashion. The Twins showed again their ability to come back and take advantage of opportunities to pull out an important 4-2 win in Cleveland. Below, you can follow the ups and downs of the game. It was a topsy-turvy game with many ups and downs. The win expectancy went back and forth several times throughout the late innings. Relive the wild ride which was Game 159 for the Minnesota Twins this season through win expectancy. TWINS TAKE FIRST LEAD The game was scoreless through the first three innings of the game. With one out in the top of the fourth: Joe Mauer doubled to left (5.2%). Miguel Sano grounded out to third base (-4.2%). Trevor Plouffe hit a ground-rule double to center to score Mauer (14.1%). The Twins had the 1-0 lead which has proven to be important many times. Obviously one run is rarely enough, and that would be the case on this night. PITCHER’S BEST FRIEND In the bottom half of the fourth, Cleveland mounted a threat and as has been the case a couple of times this series, it began with Jason Kipnis. Jason Kipnis doubled to center (-8.6%). Carlos Santana grounded out to second, advancing Kipnis to third base (+1.7%). Lonnie Chisenhall walked (-2.8%) Abraham Almonte grounded into a double play to end the threat and the inning (+16.0%). Ground ball double plays are obviously a big thing for a pitcher and his team. Any time you can get two outs on one pitch or one batter, this can have a huge effect on the game. In a low-scoring game, every out is important, but that was one of the bigger plays of the game. TWO-RUN HOMERS ARE BIG Tyler Duffey was going really well. He had thrown six shutout innings and the team had a 1-0 lead. The bottom of the seventh inning began with a Lonnie Chisenhall strikeout. The Twins win expectancy was 71%. And then, well… Abraham Almonte singled. (-5.4%) Robert Perez drills two-run homer to center field. (-44.2%) The Twins win expectancy suddenly was down to just 21.4% I think it’s fair to say that was a “game-changing” turn of events. This view and win expectancy don't necessarily illustrate just how good Tyler Duffey was in this game. In fact, he ended the game with a negative win expectancy despite making one big mistake in 6.1 innings of work. He came through for the Twins when they needed him, again! THE TWINS RESPONSE With Brian Shaw taking over for Trevor Bauer, Paul Molitor went with his gut a couple of times. Following an Aaron Hicks ground out, Molitor decided to use Danny Santana as a pinch-hitter for Kurt Suzuki. Santana had been 0-10 as a pinch hitter this season. However, he worked a rare walk. He also had Danny Santana take off toward second and Eduardo Escobar swung and did what he does best. Danny Santana walked (6.1%) Eduardo Escobar doubles to left field line to score Santana from first (30.5%) The Twins had tied the game at two and hoped to add a little more insurance. PITCHER’S BEST FRIEND (PART 2) After the Escobar RBI double, things got a little better… for a little while. Brian Dozier tapped an infield single to the first baseman to advance Escobar to third (+10.4%) Cleveland brings in Cody Allen. Joe Mauer grounded into a 4-6-3 double play to end the threat (-25.1%). As we said above, double plays tend to be pretty important in close games, especially late. Things tend to shift in terms of win expectancy in this type of game. Let me replay that top of the 8th in terms of overall win expectancy. Aaron Hicks grounds out (Twins likelihood of winning - 18.2%) Danny Santana walked (24.3%) Eduardo Escobar doubles to left field line to score Santana from first (54.8%) Brian Dozier tapped an infield single to the first baseman to advance Escobar to third (+65.2%) Cleveland brings in Cody Allen. Joe Mauer grounded into a 4-6-3 double play to end the threat (40.1%). Every play is magnified in a close game, and with the Twins playing a Meaningful Game in October, it becomes even more important and magnified. THE NINTH INNING (GULP!) Oh man, this game is intense. We wanted this, Meaningful Games, but I had almost forgotten how gut-wrenching each pitch can be! Here is the Twins half of the ninth: Miguel Sano flew out to center. (-5.5%, 44.5%) Trevor Plouffe reached on an error by Jose Ramirez (+5.7%, 50.3%) Eduardo Nunez pinch ran for Plouffe (no statistical change, but the speed does help) Eddie Rosario singled to right field and Nunez advanced to third, Rosario advanced to second on the throw. (+21.9%, 72.2%) With Torii Hunter batting, Cody Allen throws a (very) wild pitch to score Nunez, Rosario to third (+17.2%, 89.4%). Hunter hits a deep fly ball to right field to score Eddie Rosario. Twins lead 4-2 (+3.1%, 82.5%). Aaron Hicks flew out to center (-0.3%, 92.6%). On to the bottom of the ninth!! Twins lead 4-2. Ironic, maybe, that it was an error by Jose Ramirez that led to the Twins big ninth inning. Think they’re even now?! The Twins took advantage of an error and a wild pitch, and Torii Hunter had a tough plate appearance that ended with a perfect scenario. Great inning for the Twins! THE BOTTOM OF THE NINTH Kevin Jepsen came in to replace Glen Perkins who had a 1-2-3 eighth frame. Carlos Santana struck out (+4.0%, 96.6%) Lonnie Chisenhall popped out to shortstop (+2.5%, 99.1%) Abraham Almonte bunted for a single (-2.7%, 96.1%) Robert Perez struck out looking to end the game (+3.9%, 100%). Robert Perez wasn’t able to come up with a second game-altering hit, and Kevin Jepsen was terrific. Jepsen recorded his 10th save in 11 chances for the Twins this year. The Twins won for the 83rd time this season! Now, we watch scoreboards!! View full article

Yeah, there might be a little difference between a walk-off homer in Game 6 of the World Series and a 3-run homer to make the score 10-1 in a late September game.

You mean besides setting up force plays and short throws to the bases and not facing Cleveland's best hitter?

It's funny, there was a forum post after his previous start talking about how he couldn't handle the pressure of late-season starts. Baseball, and sports in general, are very much What Have You Done For Me Lately?

I was happy to hear Terry Francona say the things he said. Francona will no doubt take care of it. Good for Rosario for saying something. That was pretty pathetic. Ramirez is young, but there's no excuse for what he did. My guess is the Twins won't retaliate on Thursday. The game is too big to let emotion like that get into it. I'm sure Molitor and Francona will discuss it. I'm sure Francona will apologize. My guess is that Ramirez will have received a loud talking to from Francona and then they'll move on.

Definitely best to wait until 2016 to do anything about it. Tomorrow's game is too important to do anything like this.

Thirty minutes following the Minnesota Twins 7-1 win in Cleveland, the two teams played the second game of the doubleheader. It was a tale of two very different baseball games. The team fell 10-2 to Cleveland after another frustrating, and very short, start for Mike Pelfrey. Scoreboard watching, and hope that the Angels and Astros lose, becomes much more important. Image courtesy of David Richard, USA Today Thirty minutes following the Minnesota Twins 7-1 win in Cleveland, the two teams played the second game of the doubleheader. It was a tale of two very different baseball games. The team fell 10-2 to Cleveland after another frustrating, and very short, start for Mike Pelfrey. Scoreboard watching, and hope that the Angels and Astros lose, becomes much more important. Things started out a bit shaky for Pelfrey in the first inning. He was able to wiggle his way out of a bases-loaded, two out situation. However, in the second inning, he was not. 2nd Inning Abraham Almonte doubled to center. (6.7%) Adam Moore struck out (-4.5%) Michael Martinez singled to center, scoring Almonte. Martinez advanced to second on a wild throw by Aaron Hicks. (11.3%) Jason Kipnis lined out to shortstop. (-3.0%) Jose Ramirez doubled to left field, Martinez scored. (10.1%) Francisco Lindor singled to first base. (1.0%) Lindor advanced to second on a wild pitch. Jose Ramirez scored. (6.9%) Carlos Santana singled to center. Lindor scored. (5.4%) Mike Pelfrey’s night was complete. JR Graham came on. Santana was thrown thrown out trying to steal second base by Chris Herrmann. But the damage was done. The Twins had their big inning in Game 1. Going into the second inning, Cleveland had a 54.8% win expectancy. Following Santana’s run-scoring single, that number was up to 88.7% After that, there weren’t really any hits that contributed to Cleveland’s win expectancy. They just continued to add runs. Graham gave up one run in the third inning. Brian Duensing gave up a run in his 1.1 innings. Phil Hughes gave up a hit, but no runs, in his inning. Ryan O’Rourke threw a perfect sixth inning. Ricky Nolasco returned to the mound for the first time since May 31. He got a ground out and then struck out the next two batters with an impressive curve ball. He could very easily have thrown in the towel on his season, but he worked his way back and you have to feel good for him. We won’t mention the three runs in gave up in his second inning of work that gave Cleveland a 10-1 lead. However, the Twins were unable to figure out Cody Anderson for the second straight time. In this one, they had just two hits over seven shutout innings. Anderson did walk four, but the Twins really didn’t mount much of a scoring threat against him. Zach McAllister came on for the eighth inning. He gave up a solo homer to Miguel Sano. The 430 foot blast from the rookie was his 18th of the year. In the ninth inning, Austin Adams gave up a solo homer to Eddie Rosario to give the 10-2 final score. The Performance of Pelfrey As noted above, it was another bad start for Pelfrey. Though the safe call on the Francisco Lindor infield single cost him an out and two runs in the second, he was just being hit so hard, and he was hurting himself by being all over the place with his control. However, that can change with one call and getting that third out. Things could have been different. He will (most likely) end his 2015 season (and maybe his Twins career) by going 6-11 with a 4.26 ERA. Coming into the game on Wednesday night, here is where the Twins starters ranked in FIP (fielding independent pitching), a stat which many suggest shows how well a pitcher has been able to control the things that he can control Mike Pelfrey – 3.99 (this got worse on Wednesday) Kyle Gibson – 4.05 (this improved on Wednesday) Ervin Santana – 4.22 Tommy Milone – 4.40 Phil Hughes – 4.72 Tyler Duffey – 3.18 (but his 51 innings is about one half to one fourth of the innings of each of the top five starters above) That’s just one number, one statistic, of course. Here’s how his ERA ranked coming into the games on Wednesday: Kyle Gibson – 3.96 Tommy Milone – 4.04 Mike Pelfrey – 4.09 Ervin Santana – 4.10 Phil Hughes – 4.43 Pelfrey’s ERA jumped to 4.26, but he’s still in line with the other Twins starters. He’s been a decent fifth starter and was very important to the team’s success in the first half. However, he was remarkably inconsistent. In 16 of his 30 starts, he went at least five innings and gave up less than two earned runs. However, in ten of his 30 starts, he wasn’t able to complete five innings. Five of his final ten starts were less than five innings. So this performance was certainly predictable. WILD CARD UPDATE The Twins went 1-1. The Angels lost to the A’s. The Astros beat the Mariners. The Astros have now jumped back in to the second Wild Card position, 1/2 game ahead of the Angels. The Twins are 1 1/2 games behind Houston with four games to play. It’s not over yet! View full article

The Twins have a tough schedule down the stretch and it started on Wednesday with a doubleheader. The Twins were able to get a lead early and had a big inning off of Carlos Carrasco to take an early lead and held on for a 7-1 win. Also, after arguably his worst start of the season, Kyle Gibson came through in a big way on this day. Here is a look at the big plays of Game 1 as we look forward to Game 2. Image courtesy of Brad Rempel, USA Today The Twins have a tough schedule down the stretch and it started on Wednesday with a doubleheader. The Twins were able to get a lead early and had a big inning off of Carlos Carrasco to take an early lead and held on for a 7-1 win. Also, after arguably his worst start of the season, Kyle Gibson came through in a big way on this day. Here is a look at the big plays of Game 1 as we look forward to Game 2. Using Win Probabilty Added from Fan Graphs, the story of Game 1 is told below. As has been mentioned before, to determine these percentages, years upon years of actual game situations are used to determine how likely a team is to win from play to play. There were some big, game-changing plays in this one. A BIG START Joe Mauer batted second and hit his 10th home run of the season. (10.9%) It's been a tough season for Mauer, but he led the way early for the Twins in this game. It's always great to get an early lead, and with Gibson's most recent start, a one-run lead is very important early. Statistically, it was the one play of the game that gave the Twins the best chance to win. A BIG INNING Joe Mauer double. (6.3%) Miguel Sano singled Mauer to third base. (6.6%) Trevor Plouffe RBI single scored Mauer, with Sano going to second. (5.0%) Eddie Rosario walked to load the bases. (5.1%) Torii Hunter clears the bases with a double. (8.4%) With the score still 1-0 Twins going into the fourth inning, it was Mauer again who got things going with the leadoff double. And that was followed by big plate appearance after big plate appearance. Torii Hunter ended Carlos Carrasco's afternoon with a bases-clearing double down the left field line. That hit may not have been as big by WPA as Mauer's. However, it was the play that really put the game away for the Twins. While Hunter's double increased the Twins odds of winning by 8.4%, the bigger picture is what matters. The Twins began that fourth inning with a 63.7% chance of winning the game. Following Hunter's double, the Twins odds of winning jumped to 95.1% BUXTON CONTRIBUTES AGAIN Twins fans have seen a different Byron Buxton in his last two starts. He had two hits including his first MLB home run over the weekend. He had two important hits in this game as well: 7th inning, Eduardo Nunez was on third base and Buxton had a broken-bat single to right to give the Twins a 6-1 lead. WPA says that it increased the Twins odds of winning by just 0.6%, but insurance runs are always good. In the top of the 9th, Buxton led off with a huge home run just right of dead center field. Again, it was an insurance run late in the game to give the Twins a 7-1 lead, so WPA said it only increase the Twins odds of winning by 0.3% More important, the success has to be giving Buxton the confidence that he can contribute to this winning Minnesota Twins team beyond just his great defense. That's important in the next few days, and it's really important looking to the future. KYLE GIBSON DOMINATES Last week at Target Field, Kyle Gibson gave up six earned runs on seven hits in just 2.2 innings against this Cleveland team. He felt he let his team down, and he used that as motivation in this game to be better. The lanky right-hander threw six shutout innings on Wednesday afternoon. He gave up just four hits, walked two and struck out nine, a number he had reached just one time earlier in the season. Gibson gave the Twins exactly what they needed. WHAT'S NEXT? Mike Pelfrey takes the mound for the Twins in Game 2 against Cleveland. In his most recent start, last Friday night at Detroit, he gave up just one run on six hits in five innings. He struck out seven without issuing a walk. Generally speaking, we can tell pretty early what Pelfrey will do. If he can pitch like he did on Friday, the Twins have a chance. WILD CARD RACE As Game 2 is about to start, the Twins are now just one game behind the Los Angeles Angels and 1/2 game behind the Houston Astros. They are both playing tonight as well. View full article