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Everything posted by Seth Stohs
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Article: How The Twins Drafts Stack Up
Seth Stohs replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I don't care what they were doing in the 80s and 90s. Means nothing at this point.- 73 replies
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Article: How The Twins Drafts Stack Up
Seth Stohs replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
As I said, Cuba is different.- 73 replies
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Article: How The Twins Drafts Stack Up
Seth Stohs replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I think that points been made clear a few times, thanks. The main point was just that there is more than just the first five picks.- 73 replies
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Article: How The Twins Drafts Stack Up
Seth Stohs replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
The Twins haven't spent in Cuba, but they've been much more active in the Dominican and Venezuela in the last 5-6 years. They've spent $1M+ on Sano, Minier, Diaz, and Javier in recent years. They've been $750K or more on guys like Polanco, Kepler, Ynoa. Sano was $3+million. Javier was $4+ million... and that was more alone than the Twins allotment last year. So, I don't think the Twins haven't done enough in the International markets.- 73 replies
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Article: How The Twins Drafts Stack Up
Seth Stohs replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
See above. That was the purpose of doing this research. Lots are saying the Twins are bad at drafting, and I don't necessarily think that's true. I'd say they're average at drafting, maybe mediocre would be a better word. Now we have something to base that all on, rather than just using a blanket statement.- 73 replies
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Article: How The Twins Drafts Stack Up
Seth Stohs replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I agree... and I think to do this, you'd have to look at a very complex formula based on expectations. Maybe we look at the average WAR for a draft position to give an MLB value. But, a team (their scouts) should get some credit if an 8th round pick gets to AAA, or a 15th round pick gets to AA, or a 20th round pick gets to Hi-A, etc. I probably don't have time for that. Ha!- 73 replies
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Article: How The Twins Drafts Stack Up
Seth Stohs replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Yup, that's my point. The 2012 draft could alter the way this looks. As of right now, 2003-2012 drafts for the Twins would be very much average... but that 2012 class could push that up significantly. Honestly, we can't really judge this 10-year set of draft picks fairly for another 15 years probably. Or hey, if they went back to 2001, the Twins could add Mauer, and I'd say that was a great pick. His career WAR is above all but maybe 1-2 on this list. The Twins could also add Denard Span and he has 25 bWAR. So, to be fair, drawing arbitrary lines will always affect data.- 73 replies
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Article: How The Twins Drafts Stack Up
Seth Stohs replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I think that 2012 draft presents a couple of guys (one hitter and one pitcher... and who knows, maybe a bullpen arm) who could reach 10 bWAR as well.- 73 replies
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Article: How The Twins Drafts Stack Up
Seth Stohs replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I should probably point out that the only area where the Twins would be discounted if I only included players that the signed would be the AFTER the 5th round group. They have been really good at signing their top 5 (And usually their top 10-12) in the draft. Very few early-round picks that they don't sign.- 73 replies
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Last week, the Minnesota Twins announced two promotions in their Scouting Department. Long-time scouting director Deron Johnson was promoted to Senior Advisor of the Scouting Department. Sean Johnson, who had been West Coast Supervisor, is now taking over the reins as Director of Scouting. His job, according to the team’s press release, will be responsibility for “the strategic preparation of the Amateur Draft, and he will be charged with developing the 27-man amateur scouting staff.” The move created some discussion in our forums and even on the radio. I was listening to Phil Mackey and Judd Zulgad on 1500 ESPN early last week following the announcement, and Phil mentioned how few impact players the Twins had drafted between 2003 and 2012. Specifically, he looked at the first five rounds of those drafts to see how many players the Twins drafted that had some impact. He noted that he didn’t know how that compared to other organizations, so immediately, I had the thought that I was going to find out. It’s something I’ve been curious about, so why not find out what the data tells us.I went to old reliable, Baseball-Reference, and used their draft page to do some digging. I looked at the 2003 through 2012 drafts, a ten year period, and broke out the data in several ways. >2 bWAR: It’s hard to get to the big leagues, so to be able to find players who get there and have some positive impact on a team is terrific. This isn’t a high threshold, but it gives a good look at the scouting to be able to find big leaguers. This includes some non-closing relievers who have been good for a couple of years. This includes Byron Buxton, the Twins top pick in 2012, and a guy who certainly should rack up bWAR in the next decade and be on much higher bWAR lists.>6 bWAR: Mackey mentioned Brian Duensing as a guy who sits on the borderline of impact type of player. He’s had a nice, solid, long-lasting MLB career as mostly a middle reliever. He has 6.4 bWAR accumulated to this point, so I thought I’d find out how many have hit that level.>10 bWAR: Now we’re getting to some guys who have had really solid careers. They’ve either been solid for several years or they have had a major impact pretty quickly.>20 bWAR: If you’re past 20 bWAR you’ve had a really good career. Sure, that’s two Mike Trout seasons… or it’s a nice, solid, steady career like Aaron Hill or Chase Headley.>8 bWAR but drafted AFTER the 5th round. The MLB draft is more than five rounds. It is now 40 (and used to be 50). In reality, if scouts find guys after the 5th round that get to AAA, that should give them bonus points. But a lot of diamonds in the rough can be found in these late rounds. To be honest we should probably count any and all post-5th round draft picks who make it to the big leagues as wins.Also, please note that I am including players even if they did not sign with the team at that time. For instance, the Angels drafted Matt Harvey in the third round out of high school. He went to North Carolina instead of signing and then the Mets made him a top pick three years later. In my mind, the Angels and their scouts get credit for that too. GREATER THAN TWO bWAR (First Five Rounds) 15 - Blue Jays, Diamondbacks 14 - Reds 13 - Red Sox, Padres, Nationals 12 - Braves 11 - Twins, Royals, Rockies, Orioles, Rays, Cardinals, A’s, Angels 10 - Pirates 9 - White Sox, Marlins, Mariners, Cleveland, Brewers, Astros 8 - Cubs, Dodgers 7 - Yankees, Tigers, Mets, Giants 4 - Phillies, Rangers So, the Twins are basically tied for 8th in MLB in number of players drafted who have achieved two bWAR. I’ll have some summary comments at the end. GREATER THAN 6 bWAR (First Five Rounds) 9 - Nationals, Red Sox, Reds 8 - A’s, Blue Jays, Braves, Diamondbacks 7 - Angels, Brewers 6 - Twins, Rays, Mariners, Orioles, Pirates, Royals 5 - Astros, Cardinals, Giants, Cleveland, Marlins, Padres, Rockies, Tigers, Yankees. 4 - Cubs, Dodgers 3 - Mets, Phillies, Rangers 2 - White Sox The Twins are tied with five other teams for tenth. As happened with the two bWAR data, that tie pushed right to 15, so they are just above the halfway point among the 30 MLB teams. The Twins that made the list of 6 bWAR: Scott Baker, Trevor Plouffe, Glen Perkins, Matt Garza, Brian Duensing, Ben Revere. GREATER THAN 10 bWAR (First Five Rounds) 6 - Nationals, Red Sox 5 - A’s, Brewers, Braves, Diamondbacks, Giants, Orioles 4 - Cubs, Marlins, Mariners, Padres, Reds, Rockies, Royals, Tigers 3 - Angels, Astros, Blue Jays, Cardinals, Rays, Cleveland, Pirates, Yankees 2 - Twins, Dodgers, Mets, Phillies, Rangers, White Sox This is where the Twins can be faulted. They have not had many big impact draft picks from that decade (yet). The two Twins that made this list were Scott Baker (15.7) and Matt Garza (12.5). GREATER THAN 20 bWAR (First Five Rounds) Another group that I looked at was the players over 20 bWAR. As you can see above, the Twins did not have any. Most teams have just one. The Atlanta Braves have four, Jason Heyward, Freddie Freeman, Yunel Escobar and Andrelton Simmons. The Red Sox had three, Jonathan Papelbon, Dustin Pedroia and Jacoby Ellsbury. The Nationals had Ryan Zimmerman, Jordan Zimmerman and Bryce Harper. The Mets and Cardinals joined the Twins with zero, which may surprise many as the Cardinals are generally looked at as one of the top drafting teams in baseball. Their highest bWAR player for that time frame is Colby Rasmus at 18.7. GREATER THAN 8 bWAR AFTER THE FIFTH ROUND (players over 10 bWAR in parentheses) Angels: 7 (Chris Davis, Buster Posey, Kole Calhoun) Astros: 2 (Dallas Keuchel, JD Martinez) A’s: 1 (Mike Leake) Blue Jays: 2 (Kris Bryant) Braves: 4 (Craig Kimbrel, Anthony Rendon) Brewers: 3 (Lorenzo Cain, Michael Brantley, Jake Arrieta) Cardinals: 5 (Brendan Ryan, Ian Kennedy, Max Scherzer, Matt Carpenter) Cubs: 4 (Tim Lincecum, Josh Harrison) Rays: 5 (John Jaso, Desmond Jennings, Kevin Kiermeier) Diamondbacks: 3 (Paul Goldschmidt, Adam Eaton) Dodgers: 4 (Matt Kemp, David Price, Paul Goldschmidt) Giants: 2 (Doug Fister) Cleveland: 2 (Desmond Jennings, Tim Lincecum) Mariners: 1 (Doug Fister) Marlins: 2 Mets: 3 (Daniel Murphy, Jacob DeGrom) Nationals: 1 (Marco Estrada) Orioles: 3 (Wil Venable) Padres: 3 (Wil Venable, David Friese, Mat Latos) Phillies: 1 (Brad Ziegler) Pirates: 2 Rangers: 6 (Ian Kinsler, Derek Holland, Tanner Roark) Red Sox: 7 (Brandon Belt, Josh Reddick, Anthony Rizzo) Reds: 2 (Jake Arrieta, Justin Turner) Rockies: 3 (Dexter Fowler, Todd Frazier, Chris Sale) Royals: 2 (Jarrod Dyson, Greg Holland) Tigers: 3 (Matt Joyce, Alex Avila, DJ LeMahieu) White Sox: 0 Yankees: 8 (Tyler Clippard, Chris Davis, Doug Fister, Austin Jackson, Justin Turner, David Robertson) Twins: 4 (JD Martinez, George Springer, Brian Dozier) SUMMARY NOTES I won’t sit here and tell you that this is a perfect analysis of the draft or the drafting abilities of the Twins or any other clubs. To get a 40 bWAR player requires a lot of luck and timing and such.The Twins have a lot of very good scouts, guys who have found talent in the lower rounds. Here are some additional notes: Note all first-round picks are made the same. The year the Twins took Levi Michael in the first round, they had the 30th overall pick. Also of note, the Pirates took Gerrit Cole with the first overall pick. The Mariners then took Danny Hultzen with the second overall pick. Also of note, Keith Law ranked Michael in his top 15 players for the draft, so there is no magic formula to this.The Twins highest draft pick (other than Byron Buxton in 2012) was the 14th overall pick in 2008. For the most part, the Twins were in the playoffs during this run and making picks 20 or later in the first round. There is little certainty in top 5 picks many times, much less when you get into the 20s.The first six picks of the 2003 draft were: Delmon Young (2.5), Rickie Weeks (11.4), Kyle Sleeth (No MLB), Tim Stauffer (3.5), Chris Lubanski (No MLB), Ryan Harvey (no MLB). That year, the Twins picked Matt Moses with the 21st overall pick.The Twins did pretty well for themselves in 2004. Trevor Plouffe (8.1) and Glen Perkins (8.8) were the 20th and 22nd overall picks that year in the draft. The 23rd pick was Phil Hughes.In 2005, the Twins got Matt Garza (12.5) with the 25th overall pick, which was good for 10th (so far) in that draft’s first round.Chris Parmelee was the 20th overall pick in the 2006 draft.In the 2007 draft, Ben Revere’s 6.1 bWAR ranks 7th among the 30 first-round picks. He was taken with the 28th pick.Aaron Hicks was the 14th pick in the 2008 draft. His 1.9 bWAR to date ranks 14th of the 30 picks.Kyle Gibson missed at least one year (and probably closer to two years) of time due to Tommy John surgery. He has posted 5.0 bWAR so far in his career. That ranks ninth of the 30 first-round picks in 2009s draft. He was taken with the 22nd pick.The Twins top pick in 2010 also had Tommy John surgery. Alex Wimmers was the 21st overall pick for the Twins. He is right at 0 bWAR, but he made the big leagues, something eight players selected ahead of him can’t say yet.As we already mentioned, Levi Michael was the 30th pick in the 2011 draft.Byron Buxton was the #2 overall pick in the 2012 draft, following Carlos Correa. Buxton’s injury-plagued 2014 season likely slowed his path to the big leagues. He also has struggled early in his career. He’s accumulated 2.1 bWAR. He had a strong September, but defense is also where he will rack up a lot of WAR. Corey Seager and Addison Russell are the two high school picks from that season, along with Correa, who have more big league success so far than Buxton. I believe the odds of Buxton accumulating 20+ bWAR in his career are quite high. I also think there’s a high likelihood that Jose Berrios will improve dramatically over his -1.6 bWAR performance in 2016. Also, Mason Melotakis, JT Chargois and Taylor Rogers come from the 2012 draft and could all achieve at least 6 bWAR if things go well.I guess the information presented above shows that the Twins did a “Good” job of drafting for that decade of years. I guess I would say they’ve been pretty middle-of-the-pack, not great (for sure), but certainly not terrible either. I think they’ve done a good job of finding some guys that have the potential to be big leaguers. I would say that, for whatever reason, they haven’t had the luck in finding those big impact players that we’d all like to see. Perkins was a three-time All Star which I would say is pretty impactful, even if bWAR says it's "only" worth 8.8. Scott Baker was better than most people thought at the time. Buxton and Berrios certainly give us hope that they can be those types of players. The draft is just one way for teams to accumulate players and talent. The Twins consider themselves a mid-market team, however, and the draft becomes more important in that it is where you can find players at low salary and you can keep under control for six years. The Twins have the #1 overall pick in the 2017 draft. It’s a huge pick for the organization. There are a lot of very talented very young players who are just getting to the big leagues or just about to get to the big leagues. Having an elite talent who will be ready in three or four years will help keep that coming and help Derek Falvey toward that long-term, sustainable, championship-caliber organization that he wants to build. Click here to view the article
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I went to old reliable, Baseball-Reference, and used their draft page to do some digging. I looked at the 2003 through 2012 drafts, a ten year period, and broke out the data in several ways. >2 bWAR: It’s hard to get to the big leagues, so to be able to find players who get there and have some positive impact on a team is terrific. This isn’t a high threshold, but it gives a good look at the scouting to be able to find big leaguers. This includes some non-closing relievers who have been good for a couple of years. This includes Byron Buxton, the Twins top pick in 2012, and a guy who certainly should rack up bWAR in the next decade and be on much higher bWAR lists. >6 bWAR: Mackey mentioned Brian Duensing as a guy who sits on the borderline of impact type of player. He’s had a nice, solid, long-lasting MLB career as mostly a middle reliever. He has 6.4 bWAR accumulated to this point, so I thought I’d find out how many have hit that level. >10 bWAR: Now we’re getting to some guys who have had really solid careers. They’ve either been solid for several years or they have had a major impact pretty quickly. >20 bWAR: If you’re past 20 bWAR you’ve had a really good career. Sure, that’s two Mike Trout seasons… or it’s a nice, solid, steady career like Aaron Hill or Chase Headley. >8 bWAR but drafted AFTER the 5th round. The MLB draft is more than five rounds. It is now 40 (and used to be 50). In reality, if scouts find guys after the 5th round that get to AAA, that should give them bonus points. But a lot of diamonds in the rough can be found in these late rounds. To be honest we should probably count any and all post-5th round draft picks who make it to the big leagues as wins. Also, please note that I am including players even if they did not sign with the team at that time. For instance, the Angels drafted Matt Harvey in the third round out of high school. He went to North Carolina instead of signing and then the Mets made him a top pick three years later. In my mind, the Angels and their scouts get credit for that too. GREATER THAN TWO bWAR (First Five Rounds) 15 - Blue Jays, Diamondbacks 14 - Reds 13 - Red Sox, Padres, Nationals 12 - Braves 11 - Twins, Royals, Rockies, Orioles, Rays, Cardinals, A’s, Angels 10 - Pirates 9 - White Sox, Marlins, Mariners, Cleveland, Brewers, Astros 8 - Cubs, Dodgers 7 - Yankees, Tigers, Mets, Giants 4 - Phillies, Rangers So, the Twins are basically tied for 8th in MLB in number of players drafted who have achieved two bWAR. I’ll have some summary comments at the end. GREATER THAN 6 bWAR (First Five Rounds) 9 - Nationals, Red Sox, Reds 8 - A’s, Blue Jays, Braves, Diamondbacks 7 - Angels, Brewers 6 - Twins, Rays, Mariners, Orioles, Pirates, Royals 5 - Astros, Cardinals, Giants, Cleveland, Marlins, Padres, Rockies, Tigers, Yankees. 4 - Cubs, Dodgers 3 - Mets, Phillies, Rangers 2 - White Sox The Twins are tied with five other teams for tenth. As happened with the two bWAR data, that tie pushed right to 15, so they are just above the halfway point among the 30 MLB teams. The Twins that made the list of 6 bWAR: Scott Baker, Trevor Plouffe, Glen Perkins, Matt Garza, Brian Duensing, Ben Revere. GREATER THAN 10 bWAR (First Five Rounds) 6 - Nationals, Red Sox 5 - A’s, Brewers, Braves, Diamondbacks, Giants, Orioles 4 - Cubs, Marlins, Mariners, Padres, Reds, Rockies, Royals, Tigers 3 - Angels, Astros, Blue Jays, Cardinals, Rays, Cleveland, Pirates, Yankees 2 - Twins, Dodgers, Mets, Phillies, Rangers, White Sox This is where the Twins can be faulted. They have not had many big impact draft picks from that decade (yet). The two Twins that made this list were Scott Baker (15.7) and Matt Garza (12.5). GREATER THAN 20 bWAR (First Five Rounds) Another group that I looked at was the players over 20 bWAR. As you can see above, the Twins did not have any. Most teams have just one. The Atlanta Braves have four, Jason Heyward, Freddie Freeman, Yunel Escobar and Andrelton Simmons. The Red Sox had three, Jonathan Papelbon, Dustin Pedroia and Jacoby Ellsbury. The Nationals had Ryan Zimmerman, Jordan Zimmerman and Bryce Harper. The Mets and Cardinals joined the Twins with zero, which may surprise many as the Cardinals are generally looked at as one of the top drafting teams in baseball. Their highest bWAR player for that time frame is Colby Rasmus at 18.7. GREATER THAN 8 bWAR AFTER THE FIFTH ROUND (players over 10 bWAR in parentheses) Angels: 7 (Chris Davis, Buster Posey, Kole Calhoun) Astros: 2 (Dallas Keuchel, JD Martinez) A’s: 1 (Mike Leake) Blue Jays: 2 (Kris Bryant) Braves: 4 (Craig Kimbrel, Anthony Rendon) Brewers: 3 (Lorenzo Cain, Michael Brantley, Jake Arrieta) Cardinals: 5 (Brendan Ryan, Ian Kennedy, Max Scherzer, Matt Carpenter) Cubs: 4 (Tim Lincecum, Josh Harrison) Rays: 5 (John Jaso, Desmond Jennings, Kevin Kiermeier) Diamondbacks: 3 (Paul Goldschmidt, Adam Eaton) Dodgers: 4 (Matt Kemp, David Price, Paul Goldschmidt) Giants: 2 (Doug Fister) Cleveland: 2 (Desmond Jennings, Tim Lincecum) Mariners: 1 (Doug Fister) Marlins: 2 Mets: 3 (Daniel Murphy, Jacob DeGrom) Nationals: 1 (Marco Estrada) Orioles: 3 (Wil Venable) Padres: 3 (Wil Venable, David Friese, Mat Latos) Phillies: 1 (Brad Ziegler) Pirates: 2 Rangers: 6 (Ian Kinsler, Derek Holland, Tanner Roark) Red Sox: 7 (Brandon Belt, Josh Reddick, Anthony Rizzo) Reds: 2 (Jake Arrieta, Justin Turner) Rockies: 3 (Dexter Fowler, Todd Frazier, Chris Sale) Royals: 2 (Jarrod Dyson, Greg Holland) Tigers: 3 (Matt Joyce, Alex Avila, DJ LeMahieu) White Sox: 0 Yankees: 8 (Tyler Clippard, Chris Davis, Doug Fister, Austin Jackson, Justin Turner, David Robertson) Twins: 4 (JD Martinez, George Springer, Brian Dozier) SUMMARY NOTES I won’t sit here and tell you that this is a perfect analysis of the draft or the drafting abilities of the Twins or any other clubs. To get a 40 bWAR player requires a lot of luck and timing and such.The Twins have a lot of very good scouts, guys who have found talent in the lower rounds. Here are some additional notes: Note all first-round picks are made the same. The year the Twins took Levi Michael in the first round, they had the 30th overall pick. Also of note, the Pirates took Gerrit Cole with the first overall pick. The Mariners then took Danny Hultzen with the second overall pick. Also of note, Keith Law ranked Michael in his top 15 players for the draft, so there is no magic formula to this. The Twins highest draft pick (other than Byron Buxton in 2012) was the 14th overall pick in 2008. For the most part, the Twins were in the playoffs during this run and making picks 20 or later in the first round. There is little certainty in top 5 picks many times, much less when you get into the 20s. The first six picks of the 2003 draft were: Delmon Young (2.5), Rickie Weeks (11.4), Kyle Sleeth (No MLB), Tim Stauffer (3.5), Chris Lubanski (No MLB), Ryan Harvey (no MLB). That year, the Twins picked Matt Moses with the 21st overall pick. The Twins did pretty well for themselves in 2004. Trevor Plouffe (8.1) and Glen Perkins (8.8) were the 20th and 22nd overall picks that year in the draft. The 23rd pick was Phil Hughes. In 2005, the Twins got Matt Garza (12.5) with the 25th overall pick, which was good for 10th (so far) in that draft’s first round. Chris Parmelee was the 20th overall pick in the 2006 draft. In the 2007 draft, Ben Revere’s 6.1 bWAR ranks 7th among the 30 first-round picks. He was taken with the 28th pick. Aaron Hicks was the 14th pick in the 2008 draft. His 1.9 bWAR to date ranks 14th of the 30 picks. Kyle Gibson missed at least one year (and probably closer to two years) of time due to Tommy John surgery. He has posted 5.0 bWAR so far in his career. That ranks ninth of the 30 first-round picks in 2009s draft. He was taken with the 22nd pick. The Twins top pick in 2010 also had Tommy John surgery. Alex Wimmers was the 21st overall pick for the Twins. He is right at 0 bWAR, but he made the big leagues, something eight players selected ahead of him can’t say yet. As we already mentioned, Levi Michael was the 30th pick in the 2011 draft. Byron Buxton was the #2 overall pick in the 2012 draft, following Carlos Correa. Buxton’s injury-plagued 2014 season likely slowed his path to the big leagues. He also has struggled early in his career. He’s accumulated 2.1 bWAR. He had a strong September, but defense is also where he will rack up a lot of WAR. Corey Seager and Addison Russell are the two high school picks from that season, along with Correa, who have more big league success so far than Buxton. I believe the odds of Buxton accumulating 20+ bWAR in his career are quite high. I also think there’s a high likelihood that Jose Berrios will improve dramatically over his -1.6 bWAR performance in 2016. Also, Mason Melotakis, JT Chargois and Taylor Rogers come from the 2012 draft and could all achieve at least 6 bWAR if things go well. I guess the information presented above shows that the Twins did a “Good” job of drafting for that decade of years. I guess I would say they’ve been pretty middle-of-the-pack, not great (for sure), but certainly not terrible either. I think they’ve done a good job of finding some guys that have the potential to be big leaguers. I would say that, for whatever reason, they haven’t had the luck in finding those big impact players that we’d all like to see. Perkins was a three-time All Star which I would say is pretty impactful, even if bWAR says it's "only" worth 8.8. Scott Baker was better than most people thought at the time. Buxton and Berrios certainly give us hope that they can be those types of players. The draft is just one way for teams to accumulate players and talent. The Twins consider themselves a mid-market team, however, and the draft becomes more important in that it is where you can find players at low salary and you can keep under control for six years. The Twins have the #1 overall pick in the 2017 draft. It’s a huge pick for the organization. There are a lot of very talented very young players who are just getting to the big leagues or just about to get to the big leagues. Having an elite talent who will be ready in three or four years will help keep that coming and help Derek Falvey toward that long-term, sustainable, championship-caliber organization that he wants to build.
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In some horrible Saturday morning news, we have learned the Twins minor league pitcher Yorman Landa has passed away. He was involved in a traffic incident early this morning outside of Caracas, Venezuela.Yorman Landa signed with the Twins in September of 2010. He slowly worked up the system. In recent years, he fought through some shoulder issues to become a very good bullpen option. Following the 2015 season, he was added to the 40 man roster. He and his triple-digit fasball spent the season in Ft. Myers where he was an All Star. His season came to an end in July with another shoulder issue. The Twins took him off of the 40 man roster this fall, but last week, he re-signed with the Twins. The car accident occurred on the Francisco de Miranda freeway near the Caracas airport. He was taken to the Domingo Luciani Hospital, but doctors were unable to revive him. According to his agent, via Mike Berardino's article, Landa was in the passenger seat of a vehicle, driven by his father. Their car hit a downed tree in the rain. Landa was the only one of four or five passengers to pass away. Our thoughts go out to the friends and family of Yorman Landa. Over his six seasons in the Twins organization, he developed a lot of friendships. So we also extend our sympathies to all of his teammates who got to know him. In a statement from Derek Falvey for the Twins, he said "The Minnesota Twins are deeply saddened by the heartbreaking loss of Yorman Landa early this morning in Venezuela. On behalf of the entire baseball community, we send our sincerest condolences to the Landa family as well as Yorman’s many friends, coaches and teammates." Twins Minor League Director Brad Steil added, "Yorman was a really good guy and was always looking to help out younger players. We will miss him." His teammates and former teammate have taken to social media to share their thoughts on and share tributes to Yorman Landa: Click here to view the article
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Yorman Landa signed with the Twins in September of 2010. He slowly worked up the system. In recent years, he fought through some shoulder issues to become a very good bullpen option. Following the 2015 season, he was added to the 40 man roster. He and his triple-digit fasball spent the season in Ft. Myers where he was an All Star. His season came to an end in July with another shoulder issue. The Twins took him off of the 40 man roster this fall, but last week, he re-signed with the Twins. The car accident occurred on the Francisco de Miranda freeway near the Caracas airport. He was taken to the Domingo Luciani Hospital, but doctors were unable to revive him. According to his agent, via Mike Berardino's article, Landa was in the passenger seat of a vehicle, driven by his father. Their car hit a downed tree in the rain. Landa was the only one of four or five passengers to pass away. Our thoughts go out to the friends and family of Yorman Landa. Over his six seasons in the Twins organization, he developed a lot of friendships. So we also extend our sympathies to all of his teammates who got to know him. In a statement from Derek Falvey for the Twins, he said "The Minnesota Twins are deeply saddened by the heartbreaking loss of Yorman Landa early this morning in Venezuela. On behalf of the entire baseball community, we send our sincerest condolences to the Landa family as well as Yorman’s many friends, coaches and teammates." Twins Minor League Director Brad Steil added, "Yorman was a really good guy and was always looking to help out younger players. We will miss him." His teammates and former teammate have taken to social media to share their thoughts on and share tributes to Yorman Landa: https://twitter.com/Jorge_Polanco1/status/807746254411362304 https://twitter.com/TheDoof13/status/807633609280651266 https://twitter.com/JOLaMaKina/status/807634887989665796 https://twitter.com/JaredDWilson/status/807642397920243712 https://twitter.com/cal_pearce_51/status/807650406801244160 https://twitter.com/ayyy_itsBerto14/status/807650645675220992 https://twitter.com/RyanO_Rourke/status/807625051780616193 https://twitter.com/kellypat9/status/807621578729078784 https://twitter.com/Jack_Zones04/status/807616371374706689 https://twitter.com/BrettDoe/status/807615669189668864 https://twitter.com/TheSGonsalves/status/807612001446989824 https://twitter.com/t_hildy/status/807611331142676481 https://twitter.com/TyJay_11/status/807609707103973378 https://twitter.com/cwhu1993/status/807609539696570368 https://twitter.com/DiemPiece22/status/807605231387222016 https://twitter.com/JakeyReed5/status/807602547946967040 https://twitter.com/DaneHutcheon/status/807602496449421312 https://twitter.com/Bgilly1s/status/807601924392554496 https://twitter.com/AndroCutura3/status/807599573455826944 https://twitter.com/ZackLarson24/status/807593052441366528 https://twitter.com/toddvs35/status/807589880716935168 https://twitter.com/JohnCurtiss43/status/807654672475574276 https://twitter.com/ivanarteaga/status/807663103064293377 https://twitter.com/ChrisMazza10/status/807719795806220290 https://twitter.com/ldarnell15/status/807727019740004352
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Article: Go "Behind the Voice" with Sean Aronson
Seth Stohs replied to Sarah's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
https://thevoicebtv.libsyn.com/page/1/size/15 A couple of my favorites are the Cory Provus and Dick Bremer interviews. I also liked the Jack Michaels one, in large part because I do radio with him in Fargo from time to time. I encourage people to take a look at the link and see if any of them might be interesting to you.- 10 replies
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Article: Haley Trade Carries Shades Of Old And New
Seth Stohs replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
When you know you can get him and get more back, why not? The Twins reportedly had a lot of teams contacting them about the #1 pick. They used it to their advantage, as they should. -
Article: Haley Trade Carries Shades Of Old And New
Seth Stohs replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Getting a guy who some believe has a chance to be a starter in the Rule 5 is pretty unusual. I get that people don't like to read about guys that top out at 92, but that is where a large percentage of starting pitchers in teh big leagues are. If he can even be a back-end of the rotation guy, this is a huge win. If not, he's a normal Rule 5 guy who goes back to his original team. We forget that Scott Diamond and Ryan Pressly are Rule 5 successes.. -
Article: Haley Trade Carries Shades Of Old And New
Seth Stohs replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
They're almost always cash. -
Article: A Tale Of Two Catchers
Seth Stohs replied to Steven Buhr's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
The Reds drafted two hitters in the Rule 5 draft, so it would have been hard to imagine both making it. But they traded their 1st round Rule 5 pick to the Padres. So, there's a shot.- 8 replies
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Article: Haley Trade Carries Shades Of Old And New
Seth Stohs replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Two things: 1.) I think that we are going to find that most GMs make a lot of very similar moves. Teams with the biggest budgets can do a few more things, take more risks because money doesn't matter as much. Teams with low budgets need to be creative, but they have to deal players earlier for financial reasons. Sometimes those trade work, sometimes they don't. 2.) I think we can know that Falvey and Levine are going to use many more data points to have come to those decisions. Those data points will include all forms of analytics, reaching out to scouts, coaches and several others in the organization. It's going to be interest to evaluate each transaction, but i'll be important to know that a ton of information will have gone into those decisions. -
Wheeler and Baxendale most certainly would have been on the Twins AAA roster, so they wouldn't have been available in the minor league portion. Same thing with Alex Wimmers who was re-signed. Yorman Landa. Have to assume because the minor league (AAA) rosters aren't made public, for whatever reason. During the 'roll call' before the minor league draft, the Twins had 31 players on their AAA roster. I think I heard that they could have 38 (maybe it was 39, I might have mis-heard). I was surprised that they didn't take anyone. The price did jump from $12,000 to $24,000, but that wouldn't be a deterrent. Then again, I'd have to look back and see how often a guy taken in the minor league Rule 5 have come up and been very good. Last one I can think of to come up was Brian Buscher awhile back. I believe he was taken in the AA portion. I'm sure I've missed someone though.
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With the first overall pick in the Rule 5 draft, the Twins selected RHP Miguel Diaz from the Milwaukee Brewers. MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo notes that it is expected that he will be traded to the San Diego Padres. Mike Berardino says the Twins will get RH SP Justin Haley from the Angels. It turns out that both were right. The Cincinnati Reds selected catcher Stuart Turner with their 2nd Rule 5 pick of the MLB draft. Each year, MLB has its Rule 5 draft on the final day of the Winter Meetings. Players eligible for the draft include guys signed at 19 years old or older in 2013, or guys that signed when they were 18 or under in 2012. It costs $100,000 to make a pick, and that player needs to remain with the team that selected him through the 2017 season.Miguel Diaz is a 6-1, 175 pound right-hander went 1-8 for Wisconsin in the Midwest League last year. He had 91 strikeouts in 94+ innings. He is 22 years old. Following the draft, the Twins announced that they had traded the right-hander to the San Diego Padres in exchange for Justin Haley and a Player To Be Named Later or Cash considerations. Haley had been the eight pick in the Rule 5 draft by the Angels. Haley began the day, in the Domican Republic, no less, as a member of the Boston Red Sox organization. He was the Angels Rule 5 pick, but they traded him to San Diego who then traded him to the Twins. Justin Haley is a 25-year-old right-handed starting pitcher. It's rare to find starting pitching available in the Rule 5 draft. Last year for AA Portland, he went 5-4 with a 2.20 ERA in 12 starts. In 61.1 innings he walked 19 and struck out 59. He moved up to AAA Pawtucket where he went 8-6 with a 3.59 ERA. In 85.1 innings, he walked 26 and struck out 67 batters. He's got four pitches, with a low-90s fastball a decent changeup and OK fastball and sliders, according to reports. Here is a look at his fastball/slider combination. Losing Stuart Turner is too bad. The Twins just signed Jason Castro for three years. They have John Ryan Murphy as a backup option, and Mitch Garver has passed Turner on the depth chart as well. Garver was added to the roster. So, it stinks to lose a defensive talent like Turner, but when deciding who to add, and thinking about who they could afford to lose, they likely chose pitching over their #4 catcher. The Twins did not select anyone in the AAA portion of the Rule 5 draft. They also did not lose anyone Click here to view the article
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Miguel Diaz is a 6-1, 175 pound right-hander went 1-8 for Wisconsin in the Midwest League last year. He had 91 strikeouts in 94+ innings. He is 22 years old. Following the draft, the Twins announced that they had traded the right-hander to the San Diego Padres in exchange for Justin Haley and a Player To Be Named Later or Cash considerations. Haley had been the eight pick in the Rule 5 draft by the Angels. Haley began the day, in the Domican Republic, no less, as a member of the Boston Red Sox organization. He was the Angels Rule 5 pick, but they traded him to San Diego who then traded him to the Twins. Justin Haley is a 25-year-old right-handed starting pitcher. It's rare to find starting pitching available in the Rule 5 draft. Last year for AA Portland, he went 5-4 with a 2.20 ERA in 12 starts. In 61.1 innings he walked 19 and struck out 59. He moved up to AAA Pawtucket where he went 8-6 with a 3.59 ERA. In 85.1 innings, he walked 26 and struck out 67 batters. He's got four pitches, with a low-90s fastball a decent changeup and OK fastball and sliders, according to reports. Here is a look at his fastball/slider combination. https://twitter.com/ParkerHageman/status/806892326224363520 From Pedro Moura, beat writer for the Angels, the Twins will get Haley for Cash. Losing Stuart Turner is too bad. The Twins just signed Jason Castro for three years. They have John Ryan Murphy as a backup option, and Mitch Garver has passed Turner on the depth chart as well. Garver was added to the roster. So, it stinks to lose a defensive talent like Turner, but when deciding who to add, and thinking about who they could afford to lose, they likely chose pitching over their #4 catcher. The Twins did not select anyone in the AAA portion of the Rule 5 draft. They also did not lose anyone
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It’s the final day of the Winter Meetings. Things have been very quiet on the Twins front, to be sure, but that doesn’t mean it’ll stay that way. There were a couple of major moves made on Wednesday, and of course, the Rule 5 draft will take place this morning. The Rule 5 draft is often called the official end of the Winter Meetings, but it has also been a day of moves. It’s like it is the last day where teams and/or agents can meet in person and they want to reach agreements before they fly home. Two years ago, the Twins announced the signing of Ervin Santana moments after the Rule 5 draft. Five years ago, the Twins and Phillies made the Ben Revere for Vance Worley and Trevor May trade.Before we get to the Rule 5 discussion, let’s start with the moves from Wednesday: The Nationals didn’t get Chris Sale, and they couldn’t reach an agreement with the Pirates on Andrew McCutchen. So, they turned their attention to the White Sox. Mid-afternoon, it was announced that the Nationals had acquired outfielder Adam Eaton in exchange for three right-handed pitching prospects. Lucas Giolito was the Nationals top prospect and the top pitching prospect as recently as midseason. Reynaldo Lopez was their #3 prospect. Dane Dunning was their #6 prospect and the team’s first-round pick last June. Adam Eaton is a real solid player, but there is no question that the Chicago White Sox did very well for themselves. Eaton is controlled through the 2021 season which made him very appealing to the Nationals. He also is an elite right fielder, though he will likely play centerfield for the Nationals. The White Sox have certainly changed the outlook of their minor league system. They had one of the worst minor league systems in baseball two days ago. Along with the three pitchers, they acquired baseball’s top prospect, Yoan Moncada, and hard-throwing Michael Kopech plus two more prospects from the Red Sox in the Chris Sale trade a day earlier. The White Sox will likely still be looking to deal 1B Jose Abreu, 3B Todd Frazier, LH SP Jose Quintana, and Closer David Robertson, each likely adding multiple quality prospects. Robertson should bring back a quality return thanks to the crazy closer market this week. It started with All Star Mark Melancon getting a four year, $62 million deal with the Giants. Wade Davis was officially traded to the Cubs on Wednesday morning for outfielder Jorge Soler. There were rumors 24 hours ago about Aroldis Chapman being offered $92 million. Late on Wednesday, he signed a five year, $86 million to return to the Yankees. That leaves Kenley Jansen as the big remaining closer on the free agent market. The Marlins are very much interested, but the Nationals must remain interested too. Of course, Robertson is likely appealing to many teams as well, and frankly, with the White Sox plans for 2017, they don’t need an elite closer. TWINS RUMORS OF THE DAY RULE 5 DISCUSSION Early this morning, the Rule 5 draft will take place. In the past, there were three phases of the Rule 5 draft, the MLB phase, AAA and AA phases. This year, there will be the MLB and the Minor League Rule 5 drafts. Makes sense. In recent years, few players were taken from the AA portion of the draft. The other change is that it will cost a team $100,000 to make a Rule 5 pick. It has been $50,000 for many years. As Nick wrote yesterday, there are at least nine relief pitchers available to teams in the Rule 5 draft today who have hit triple digits with their fastball. Could the Twins be interested in one of them? For the most part, people seem to believe this is a fairly weak group of prospects eligible to be selected. The Twins brass noted yesterday that they are receiving a lot of phone calls and interest in the #1 pick in today’s Rule 5 draft. I would not be surprised at all if the Twins trade that #1 pick. Of course, we won’t know about the trade until after the draft is complete. It’s possible they could trade with a team lower in the draft in exchange for their pick and cash. There could be other trade options. If you’re looking for names that the Twins might take in the Rule 5 draft, here is Baseball America’s list and here are five names (And two more) to watchaccording to Thrylos from his blog other day. It’s hard to predict who the Twins might take with their Rule 5 pick. It’s probably even harder to figure out which Twins players the other organizations might have interest in. However, here are some guys I think have a chance of being selected from the Twins: #1 - Aaron Slegers - The 6-10 right-hander was the Twins 5th round pick in 2013 out of Indiana. He has gradually moved up, one step a year, and he’s always been solid. He isn’t overpowering, but he has good control and a good start pitch-mix that he could certainly be intriguing. #2 - DJ Baxendale - He’s been primarily a starting pitcher in since he was the Twins 10th round pick in 2012 out of Arkansas. However, he kind of stalled at AA. He moved up to AAA and into the Red Wings bullpen where is fastball/slider mix proved to be good. He doesn’t throw very hard. #3 - Yorman Landa - I’m not certain if the hard-throwing right-hander is eligible or not. It was mentioned the other day that Landa had re-signed with the Twins. If he actually already put pen to paper, he would be another triple-digit right-hander available to teams in the Rule 5 draft. #4 - Niko Goodrum - He could have become a free agent, but he chose to sign back with the Twins right after the season. He’s just kind of coming into his own and his raw athleticism turned into some decent numbers in 2016, despite missing the first two months with injury. He could be interesting to teams because he can play three or four positions on the field. #5 - Stuart Turner - We’ve seen the value of defense at catcher in recent years escalate. For his shortcomings with the bat, Turner is very good behind the plate. I still believe that he has the approach at the plate and some pop to eventually hit a little bit. But his defense can make him a solid backup backstop. #6 - Lewis Thorpe - He’s missed the last two seasons after Tommy John surgery, but he was a top prospect before the injury, and he is very talented. And he’s still just 21 years old. He is a question to be able to stick on a roster after so much missed time (and not pitching above Low A), but he has the upside to be very intriguing to teams. We’ll get an article posted as soon as the Twins make their Rule 5 pick, and we’ll update it with any players that they should lose in the drafts. We’ll also update it should the Twins announce any trade regarding their Rule 5 pick. So be sure to check back. Click here to view the article
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