mk

I don't know where you find them, but I'd be interested to see the stats adjusted for the league these guys played in. I'm not sure how it was in 2012 but it seems the Eastern League is usually pretty tough on hitters, and for Arcia and Hicks to put up the numbers they did just ads to how great a year they had.

I think Ryan managed the 2012 payroll pretty well. Willingham is outproducing the guy he replaced and Doumit can serve as backup catcher so we don't need to see Butera behind the plate half the time. I think that's two solid pluses for Ryan. He also didn't overspend for guys like Jose Reyes or Jimmy Rollins (not that they were even talked about, but the Twins know they need a shortstop too). In terms of the Twins most glaring weakness, starting pitching, I like to think Ryan thought/hoped he could get something useful out of Pavano, Baker, Liriano, and Marquis. Those guys won't be a factor on the rotation for 2013 but hopefully the $23.5 mil they were paid will be used to aquire others who can contribute. How many spots do you have to fill? Diamond has been good. Deduno has a sub 4 ERA. DeVries has looked good since coming up. If those are your 3-5 guys, you have a shot, right? To tell the truth, I wasn't very excited about the Marquis signing either. It seemed Ryan was trying to reincarnate Kenny Rogers from 2003 or Terry Mulholland from 2004. Instead he got the second coming of Sidney Ponson. He also shook the dice and lost on Zumaya for $850K. It was a long shot, but may demonstrate that Ryan is weighing risk/reward when making these decisions.

I'd say Jeter and Miguel Cabrera.

What the hell do the Pirates have to do with this? Morneau isn't part of the future, he won't be here whenever they contend again. So you ditch that salary so you can play the cheap MLB ready 1B you have. What the hell is so hard to understand about this? I mentioned Greinke and Jackson cause they're arms that could make an impact. Even if the Twins were to sign them both I don't think they sniff 80 wins, I just used the two top arms that will be on the market...my god man. I used the Pirates as an example because ditching salary is what they did when they began two decades of losing. I guess the part I don't understand is why anyone who doesn't want the Twins to win spends so much time on a Twins message board. Ditching salary does not make team better. And, if you think doing a salary dump of $14mil in 2012 would carry into anything the Twins do in 2015, I think you're wrong there too.

One thing to consider is limited payroll through much of Ryan's tenure. Ryan's highest payroll came in 2007, the year before Smith became GM. That payroll "ballooned" to $71 mil because Mauer, Morneau, and Cuddyer were arb eligible and an increase in revenues via a new stadium was finally approved. As for increasing payroll via free agency or trade, it's easy to forget that Rick Reed was owed $15mil for his 37 and 38-year-old seasons. Shannon Stewart was also expensive, but he added a bit more value as I remember.

Bad teams don't get better by shedding good players, regardless of how much they're paid. Look at the Pirates. Prior to this year they've been a bad team ever since Bonds left for San Francisco. That was 20 years ago. I hope Terry Ryan isn't on the 20-year rebuilding plan. Ryan isn't going to sign Greinke and Jackson, probably true, so why the need to conserve payroll by getting rid of Morneau? "None of us know what JR's strategy is," I'll agree with that, but I'm sure he has a strategy. It just appears to me that with the moves he's made since becoming interim GM points to trying to contend sooner rather than later. Willingham signed through 2014. Doumit signed through 2014. Jamey Carroll signed through 2013. Liriano traded for 2 players that spent time in the majors. What evidence is there that Ryan is planning for 2015 and beyond? I think if he was building for 2015, we'd have seen Span and Morneau traded instead of signing Willingham and Doumit. Also, not comparing injury histories, just trying to make a point that injuries happen. Yes, Morneau has an injury history. So does Willingham, Span, Mauer, and everyone else not named Ripken Jr. or Gehrig. Parmelee has sat out the last few games, we don't know what his injury history will be.

Bad teams don't get rid of expensive players, bad teams try to get better. At the current payroll, the Twins should have the flexibility to add significant starting pitching and keep Morneau for 2013. Also, not contending for quite a few years doesn't appear to be Terry Ryan's strategy, otherwise why keep Willingham, Span and Perkins and extend Doumit? If you're in full rebuild mode, why not call up more than 2 minor leaguers for September? I think Terry Ryan's plan is to try to contend in 2013. If things go bad right away, you still have the opportunity to move veterans at the trade deadline. Injuries happen to everyone. Didn't Parmelee sit the last few games due to soreness? I also don't think Parmelee will find a long term home at 1B, at least not with the Twins. Morneau is playing there now and if everything remains the same will be there for 2013. Mauer is only catching half the games in 2012, how many games will Mauer be playing at 1B by 2014? My hope is that Parmelee takes ownership of RF.

I think DPJ's comments are misguided. DPJ wants to drop "Morneau off at the trash burner next to TF," and don't believe the Twins will "actually get some value outta the dumb Canuck," yet seems to conceed the Pohlad's won't sign any free agents gained with the salary relief by moving Morneau. By these statements there are only a couple explanations left for making sure Morneau isn't on the Twins in 2013. One is because DPJ dosn't think Morneau is a good baseball player and the Twins would be better with someone else (presumably Parmelee). If that's the case, I think you're wrong. An .888 OPS since the all-star break means Morneau is pretty good. Morneau is a solid first baseman and he is compensated accordingly. As far as Parmelee, the best lineup the Twins could present would feature Morneau and Parmelee. The other explanation is that you want the Twins to field a bad team so they drop attendance to a level where the Pohlads can move the team. If that's the case, I'm sorry, Jake Taylor, Ricky Vaughn, Roger Dorn, and Willie "Mays" Hayes are not available to play for the Twins. I think the Twins have the position players to compete in 2013. Their lineup is solid as evidenced by scoring the 3rd most runs since the all-star break (behind only the Angels and the A's). One could say that a weakness in the lineup is lack of power and that certainly isn't going to improve by moving Morneau.

Having the will to sign them is another. We'll see how much "Will" Terry Ryan has this off-season. For now, I'm not getting my hopes up. He has said that he doesn't think free agency is the way to acquire starting pitching -- if he spends more than $12-$15 million, I'll be surprised. Look for a Pavano-type (not Pavano but an innings eater) and someone like Baker (cheap plus incentives). If free agency isn't the way, then a trade has to be the more appealing option in Ryan's eyes. Who brings back the better pitcher: Morneau, Parmelee, Willingham, Span, or Revere? Or, maybe you look to prospects like Hicks or Arcia who are good prospects in the high minors, especially knowing you still have Buxton and Kepler in the system.

Morneau will have a good year in 2013 no matter where he is. It looks like his injury issues are behind him and, when healthy, Morneau is as good as any 1B in the league. The Twins are lucky to have him. I think the Twins have a lineup to build around (it'd also be nice to add a SS) and I hope they decide to make a run at some legitimate starting pitching via free agency and try to contend in 2013. With Pavano, Baker, Liriano, Capps, Zumaya, and Marquis not on the payroll, that should free up around $25 million. And, in my dreams, I think back to the payroll of 2011 where the Twins would have $41 million to spend afer 2012. Also, looking at costs down the road, it doesn't look like anyone other than middle relievers are reaching arbitration anytime soon and after 2013, Blackburn, Nishi, and Carroll's $12 million come off the books. It seems the only way to get good starting pitching is to either develop it (hard for the Twins lately) or pay for it. I think it would be a better investment for the Twins to spend the cash rather than the prospects.

Any chance the Rangers make Elvis Andrus available now that Jurickson Profar, baseball's #1 prospect, is in the majors? What would it take to get him on the Twins? Not saying the Twins should make the move, but all options should be examined. Also, just taking a quick glance at SS that might be available via free agency, it doesn't seem like there's much to get excited about. This scenario seems similar to the Pierzynski/Mauer situation. Baseball's top prospect, valuable defensive position, blocked in the majors by an all-star type player just about to get expensive.

I hope I'm wrong but I just don't see it. Other than a good 50 games at AAA in 2011, Plouffe's minor league numbers don't seem impressive and a track record of the other 780 games are not as good as Valencia's.

I am worried that a small sample size is giving Twins fans false hope that they've found the 3B of the future. Is he just the 2nd coming of Danny Valencia?

Morneau in his MVP season was a 3.5 WAR guy. same in 2009. In 2010 he was a 5 win guy before he got hurt. last season he was below replacement level, this season he has been 1.1 WAR player or so. Might finish with 1.5 Last season in 21 games of every day play Parmelee was an 1.3 WAR player. Also in Rochester he proved sustained success if he plays every day. So it is ridiculous to pay someone 14 million to get the same level of production as you get from a minimum wage guy, if you have as many holes as the Twins do. A $14 million a year first baseman is a luxury for a team who have lost 99 and is on pace for 95, two years in a row. They Twins need pitching. Morneau and his $ relief will be able to do that. And there is a ready replacement in line. As far as Dunn goes, the White Sox have been handing out some really awful contracts (and Dunn is not alone). Why should the Twins do that? Morneau and his $15M contract isn't the reason the Twins are going to lose 90+ games this year, it's the $16M for Pavano, Blackburn, and Marquis. I'd guess that comparing the WAR for Morneau to those guys makes Morneau's $15M look like a steal. Also, it's no sure thing that your're going to get the same production between Parmelee and Morneau. Parmelee 1.3WAR from 2011 is nice, but he also played quite a bit to begin 2012 (27 of the first 36 games). I don't know what his WAR was but he hit .179/.250/.262 striking out in nearly 23% of his plate appearances. For the record, based on his 50+ games at AAA in 2012 I think Parmelee deserves a chance to play and could really help the Twins, but so can Morneau even at $15M.

40 HR, 100BB and stays healthy every season...that has no value at all. Not saying that doesn't have any value, of course it does, just trying to put perspective on where the market is. Quality first basemen, even ones with flaws, make a lot of money.

I think 8-10 mil a year is seriously undervaluing Morneau and what he's going to get as a FA after 2013. Adam Dunn can't hit his weight and he got 4 years and $56 mil. I agree that Parmelee deserves a shot based on his 2011 and 2012 seasons, but since when did saving money by letting a veteran go ever translate to picking up something useful anywhere else?

If he puts up a 2013 line of .850 OPS and stays healthy, I think he'll get somewhere between $25-30m over three years. If he drops closer to an .800 OPS like he has now, I think he'll get Josh Willingham money. So, that brings back the original question. Is it in the Twins' best interest to try to extend Morneau now at 3/25 or 3/30. A healthy Morneau has an OPS of .886 since July 1 which could put him closer to an Adrian Gonzalez comp (7 years, $154,000,000). Coincidentally, Morneau is at the top of all the Baseball-Reference Similarity Scores for A-Gon.

When estimating Morneau's next contact maybe you don't have to look too far to find a comparable. Going into free agency, Josh Willingham was 32 years old and had averaged 128.5 games per season 2006 - 2011. Going into free agency after next season, Morneau will be 32 years old and over the span of 2006 - 2011 he has averaged 127 games per season. Both 32 year old free agents with injury history and very similar stat lines 06 - 11. Of course, not all things are comparable as Morneau plays a good 1B, has an MVP award, and is a 4-time all star. Willingham got 3 years and $21 mil. What can Morneau expect?

I know he's exceeded the 130 AB limit to qualify as a prospect or a rookie for 2013, but what if the Twins hadn't rushed Parmelee straight from AA at the beginning of 2012 and he had spent the entire year mashing in AAA? Where would he rank in terms of Twins/MLB top prospects? Parmelee's recent 1.136 OPS is very pretty, but how good is it for a 24-year-old first baseman?

I think I would prefer keeping Morneau. He's still just 31 and plays a solid 1B. Yes, Parmelee has a great OPS... in AAA. Morneau on the other hand has an OPS of .921 in the Majors since the beginning of July and finally seems to be hitting the stride Twins fans have been waiting for since the concussion. And, if you're concerned about the small sample size of Morneau's resurgence, it's only 15 fewer games than Parmelee has been raking at AAA. Plus, in 2014, how much time will Mauer be spending at 1B? Also, if Parmelee is the top prospect Twins fans think he is, couldn't the front office flip him for a top pitching prospect? Seems a great time to sell high.

I agree. No NEED to trade Parmelee. But, it seems the Twins need MLB pitching prospects more than they need another 1B/OF/DH. Like we saw in the Matt Garza/Delmon Young trade, you need to trade something of value (Garza) to get value (Young... at the time was 21 years old and coming off a year in which he was 2nd in ROY voting). I just hope it works out better long term for the Twins this time.

What are the chances it's Parmelee that gets traded after the season? Being young and under team control for the foreseeable future, would he have more trade value to bring back high upside pitching than Morneau and his hefty contract? Yes, that leaves 1st base as a potential hole after Morneau's contract expires, but it seems that Mauer is spending more time there, and if Sano doesn't cut down on errors maybe that's where he ends up.

Totally agree with "no trade is better than a bad trade." Remember Johan Santana, Matt Garza, J.J. Hardy, Wilson Ramos, etc?

I hope I'm just a year or 2 early with this daydream and the Twins could be in the right situation to build for 2014, with whoever the impact pitcher could be. I guess I'm just wishing the Twins would pursue quality with the $20.5M coming off their books after 2012 (Pavano, Baker, Liriano) and another $20.5 coming off after 2013 (Morneau & Blackburn) instead of picking up leftovers for $10M. In my mind 20 wins from 1 guy making $20M is better than 24 wins from 2 guys each making $10M.

I agree, Felix would not do anything to help the Twins in 2012. But if the Twins aren't looking to 2014, why hang on to Willingham? Obviously there's more risk putting all your eaggs in one basket, but if you want to discuss $$$, which is better, Hernandez at $18.5M or 3 pitchers averaging $6M per year (use Pavano, Marquis, Blackburn at $16.25M as an example)? It seems the Twins already pay relatively the same amount per win. OK, so wins is a flawed stat. Set aside any sort of performance upgrade. How about paying $2.25M more for just 23 fewer innings? I'd take quality over quantity. Of course this is a moot point because I'd suspect IF the Mariners would even consider a Hernandez deal they would want top prospects in the high minors to line up with their own youth movement arriving 2014-2015, something the Twins don't possess.