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Willihammer

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Everything posted by Willihammer

  1. Willihammer
    Maybe the better move, if the Twins are heck bent on dumping Liriano, is to sign and then shop, so as to provoke a bidding war amongst teams with unprotected picks ie. contenders.
  2. Willihammer
    Then why previously did you mention Marcum, Jackson, &Sanchez? Nevermind, get back to me after the deadline. Like K. Williams, I think instead of you wanting to rebuild or reload you'd waffle as the ChiSox cca 2011-2012.
  3. Willihammer
    It is the top 15 for the 2013 draft, I belive.
  4. Willihammer
    You're framing this in an interesting way, but only interesting to me since I think all previously interested parties have long since wandered on. I have always spoken in terms of value added per dollar spent. If I had spoken of gross value then I wouldn't have stipulated Sano as trade bait in the first place, obviously. See "Trade Sano" Post# 1. As a stipulation, if the Twin retain Liriano, then they are virtually encumbered therewith to sign a free agent as per their de facto all-in posturing for 2013. Owing to the fact that (presumable SP free agents you mentioned) are all or 1 of: 1. old and declining and 2. overpriced relative to Price/Hernandez (and to a lesser extent, Buehrle and Lee), 3. unproven in the AL, 4. injurious history, then a better move may be to take the better, younger pitcher under 2+ years of control at the lower immediate price of a A level prospect (albeit a top level prospect). You, sir, retorted by cherry picking statistics from 2008, all of which are validated by fangraphs WAR, and none of which are validated by rWAR (bb-ref), thus I assumed bb-ref. But I am done quibbling. The fact is, if we can't even agree on a common formula for Wins then there is little to quibble about anyway. BB-ref and Fangraphs tell very different strories about Liriano. I assume you are familiar with both, and can understand my conclusion here. If not, then please reference fangraphs.com and search for WAR. Pitcher WAR is more heavily dependent on FIP and less dependent on park factor (obviously park factor is less meaningful in a park that is not even 3 years old).
  5. Willihammer
    As I understand it, the only team to lose a draft pick would be a signer who takes him and isn't in line for a protected pick (ie. top 15). The Twins should not lose a 1st round pick in any scenario, as I understand it.
  6. Willihammer
    Ad hominems neither advance the thread nor foster a culture of intelligent debate. To your point: The idea is that that Felix/Price would be willing to sign an extension owing to the fact that the Twins have already committed to winning now (see Mauer, Willingham, Doumit, and proverbially Liriano at 3/30). Not sure what you mean by 19 and 20... Outfield prospects are the least desirable commodities. Proven MLB SPs are high value commodities. I hope you're right. I'm just trying to be, realistic. Have I psoposed a trade to the Nats? The Nats are not ideal trade partners and again, middle of the road outfielders are a low-value commidity. The 2nd block of text in a row - I don't know what you're replying to here.
  7. Willihammer
    A salary dump makes sense - theyu are carrying 3 catchers/DH's/1Bs after all
  8. Willihammer
    Count the assumptions in this post. 1. Sano, Rosario, Hicks, Arcia, etc will mature into big league above-average 3rd baseman, 2nd baseman, outfielder, and outfielder. Unlikely at best. 2. A speedy low-power outfield of Hicks, Arcia and Revere cuts it in 2015 AL. 3. The Nats don't pull a trade before the end of the year and, A. are still interested in Span despite his concussion issues, B. are shopping Lambordozzi, C. Span is a worse outfielder than one of Hicks, Arcia, Revere, etc. D. Lombo is a better utility guy than Casilla 4. The Nats are interested in soaping up Morneau's contract, and A. would additinonally trade prospects on top ie. 1 or more of Ray, Turnbull and Rosenbaum That my friend adds up to a sandcastle in the sky. Things change faster than you may think. And the Nats are changing as fast as any team in the league. They need a CF but that is all you have accurately described, I think
  9. Willihammer
    This is good news. 1. The Twins need pitching anyway. Home discount would be welcome. 2. Other clubs are showing hesitant to pull the trade trigger - forecasting a down free agency market on him. 3. Heavy reliance on the slider, instead of fastball = greater success in post-peak years. Slightly less vulnerability to declining fastball velocity that is inevitable with age. No proof that other lucrative FAs are even open to a MN offer, esp. NL FA's. If they are open -minded, some probability they will only sign here at a premium. No premium with Liriano as he likes to stay here.
  10. Willihammer
    How can you in one breath mention Hamels, Greinke, , et al and in the next talk about Liriano salary risk? Are we not agreed that 3/30 is expectacted for Liriano, or not? Such price pales in comparison to risk involved with extensions the other group will get (with exceptions - see Sano thread reply# 38). I was speaking in terms of win-return/$ but wasn't clear. At 3/30 Liriano presents a higher possible win return on the dollar compared to Greinke or Hamels who because of consistent track records will net lucrative contract/extensions and therefore return a lower value, somewhere between $9.33 and 4.66 / win, whereas Liriano at 3/30 can expect a floor of about $5m/win at 2 wins/season (fangraphs WAR) and a ceiling of $2m/win (5 wins/season). Ah, I am using fangraphs WAR and you are using bb-ref WAR. That is a separate depate. Suffice, you extricate the stat suiting your argument and I for mine. In such case the "albatross" risk defaults to the higher gross investment. Blackburn is a disappointment, not an albatross. If to sign and albatross Greinke or Hamels now, then the the SP+Mauer handcuffs the Twins when Sano reaches MLb and all is for naught. Final thought: Velocity has a negative correlation with paycheck. In other words, peak velocity occurs before free agency. With peak velocity comes peak strikeouts - around age 28. Another argument in the corner of Hernandez/Price.
  11. Willihammer
    Park Factor
  12. Willihammer
    Advanced metrics tell a different story. Also Morneau is 6/80, a far cry from 3/30. Of the players you listed before, all would command 3/30 or more with no chance of putting together seasons comparable to liriano circa 2006 or 2010. Yes, Liriano is inconsistent but at 3/30 it would not be an albatross and could easily return a surplus value, where as a deal for Hamels / Greinke who would command something like 5 / 140 or more and very quickly turn into an albatrosszx Returning to the original point, the best bargain is on younger better pitchers under team control for next 2-4 years, namely Hernandez and Price. This combined with a 3/30m liriano deal and a return to form from either Baker or Gibson, contributions from Pavano, Blackburn, Hendriks, et al. at the back, and you are better prepared for success 2013-2015 or longer, rather than putting all your eggs in the Sano basket and floundering at the fringe of the playoff picture as the White Sox .cca 2012.
  13. Willihammer
    The market for Liriano will be in the 3/30 range I think. High upside at relatively low risk. not all are more appealing than Liriano.
  14. Willihammer
    As an example, Kenny Williams caught a lot of flack last off-season for waffling in terms of full rebuild, or full re-load mode. The White Sox are another team with good core of players but lack only 1 or 2 pieces, and they will likely finish just outside the last playoff spot. If Baker or Gibson comes back and pitches at a high level, then what? The worst thing is to be unprepared for success.
  15. Willihammer
    Buehrle is only one who meets the criteria. By the way, he will likely deliver surplus value at 4/58, as he is in the middle of another very good year that no one is noticing. A Sano-Buehrle trade straight up wouldn't be my first choice either but if they are chips in part of a larger deal then I would listen.
  16. Willihammer
    Good point. But, if the Twins trade Liriano in the next few days then it will signal what they are open to doing this offseason, I think. There aren't many unrestricted top flight free agent SP's this year. It is likely that Liriano would be our best option, and so if they stand pat then I would be curious to see if they double down this offseason, and mortgage Sano to get an option better than Edwin Jackson, J. Shields (assuming the Rays don't pick up his '13 option), or Hamels (assuming the Phils don't extend him, or trade him to someone who does extend him). I would explore a Sano-Felix trade. Sure, Felix is supposedly off-limits, but consider: Smoak has been a bust so far, and Ackley not much better.
  17. Willihammer
    Under the new CBA, teams are more reluctant than ever to trade top prospects. So, should the Twins take advantage of this climate and shop their number one prospect, SS/3B Miguel Sano, for a current starting pitcher, in preparation to make a run in 2013-2014? Here are some candidates with 2-4 years of team control remaining, in no particular order: 1. David Price, 26 (FA in 2016) 2. Mark Buehrle, 33 (signed thru 2015 for 4/58) 3. Cliff Lee, 33 (signed thru 2015 for 5/120) 4. Felix Hernandez, 26 (signed thru 2014 for 5/78) I'll hang up and listen. -Willihammer
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