Reginald Maudling's Shin
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Everything posted by Reginald Maudling's Shin
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That is more than I would have thought.
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What I'm advocating is not a boom or bust approach. I don't think spending $100 million dollars to lose 95 games is a good idea. Need I remind you they did that 2 years ago. You want to assign an arbitrary number as a payroll goal and get pissed off if the Twins don't do what you want. I'm telling you that doesn't make any sense. The are far too many poor players on the roster and in the high minors to load up on long term contracts right now. When the team is better positioned to make a run at a championship through development of cost controlled players, THEN if they don't make a move or two or three to add high priced talent to get over the hump I will gladly join you in your angst. Until then, I'm going to pull a Mile Tice and say "enjoy the season". Enjoy watching Hicks and Arcia develop. Watch the minors to see how those guys are doing. Enjoy this with the requisite zero expectations of a playoff berth this year or next.
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Why don't we just let the StarTribune commenters run the Twins business? They'll be in the World Series in no time.
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Obviously you are for not demanding the Twins sign every available top free agent and/or demand they spend $100M a year "because they have it". People who think this way deserve to be Cubs fans. I prefer management capable of putting together winning seasons instead if throwing their idiot fan base a few high priced bones every once in a while.
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There's an old adage that may apply here, something about putting all your eggs in one basket. Greinke is good, but having him doesn't guarantee anything. This team is not going to win the division with or without Greinke. They likely won't compete next year either. Your best prospects are still in A ball. Why the hell would you tie up so many resources in one player, when most likely you won't compete until the 3rd or 4th year of the deal? He's not Bob Gibson or Pedro Martinez for Pete's sake.
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Of those 300 pitches, how many qualify as borderline where catcher A gets a strike and B doesn't get the call? Then the sample size becomes much, much smaller.
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Yeah, if you look at it that way, like a snapshot on time, I can't remember anything even close to this group. The Star Tribune used to run stats from the minors every Sunday (for all I know they still might) but they didn't have guys putting up numbers like Buxton and Sano ever. Also I remember maybe a guy or two per level to get excited about but not as many as we see today. Even Kirby's group was't that hyped before 1987. Kirby himself had like 1 HR in his rookie year (and before the 1987 season Bill James predicted something like 30 for his career, pretty funny). Some of the numbers from Edmonton and Salt Lake got a little crazy (Michael Restovich, Bernardo Brito etc.) but as a whole you knew they were inflated. Sano is 1/3 of the way to the FSL HR record in a month.
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Yep. Ryan's job should actually be a bit easier in the next few years since he's not restricted to a $55M-ish payroll, and hopefully he has some positions solidified and fewer holes to fill. Time will tell if he can shake the small market mentality of taking the best deal over the best possible player.
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You can't judge anything from the past 5 weeks from Hicks or Arcia. If they merely hold their own and not look terrible for a whole season that's perfectly reasonable to expect and should be viewed as positive. You can't expect rookies to come in and dominate, that never happens.
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The other thing I don't quite understand is what you do with the data. Is pitch framing something you can practice and get better at? I would think a guy like Molina just knows where to set up to get the call, knows the strike zone, and knows where to put his glove and not move it. It's seems more of an instinctive thing. Its like asking players to somehow learn to take pitches as close as say, Mauer does. That's just natural ability to some extent.
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Back in the 50s they didn't have the minor league system like they do today though. I believe it was the Royals who pioneered the modern farm system in (IIRC) the 70s. EDIT: after frantic googling I can't find a source for my hunch and found that Branch Rickey started the minor league system in the 1930s. So in the words of Gilda Radner, "never mind".
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If a guy is knocking the cover off the ball over a week I think that's a relevant stat if you're an opposing pitcher. But again, does it really take 6 years of data to tell us Doumit isn't a good defensive catcher? I think we already know that. Also if you are trying to validate the data, having the guy who's dead last remain dead last isn't necessarily proving a statistical trend. I don't know what one would do with pitch framing data, other than make your own player aware of the problem. But I don't think ranking players is valuable. I have the same problem with defensive metrics in general, if you need 3 years of data what good is the stat? Why can't you just have your scouts who've watched thousands of games tell you if the guy is a good defensive player or not? Are you going to use UZR on high school age players who play maybe 60 games a year?
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The girls high school basketball PBP guy and the all-star are saying Pelfrey's velocity is measurably up today. Are they correct?
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Arcia looked overmatched in that AB. Had no clue what was coming.
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Late stop sign by Vavra, but Willingham didn't appear to even look at him. I thought Mauer could have scored. Throw was a bit up the 1st base line. It would have taken a perfect throw to get him.
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I think he's just not a smart ballplayer.
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I do not, ever, use ESPN opinions to judge anything. Also, hopefully Gardy has had enough of the losing himself to step aside and let someone else take over. This way the Twins wouldn't have to deal with firing him and they keep the whole "loyalty" schtick while hopefully getting a new voice in the mix.
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What do the the coaches do all night?
Reginald Maudling's Shin replied to Mike Sixel's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
If Plouffe is too stupid to realize he shouldn't move back to the point where he can't even make a play on a bunt with a runner on third, then the only thing I might question the coaching staff on is why they put him in there to begin with. -
But, they are giving updates by the week! That's crazy. I thought UZR was stupid because you need 3 years of data to formulate an opinion. Then people still extrapolate ridiculously small sample sizes out if it. This is orders of magnitude worse. I heard a good line from a statistician that seems appropriate here: if you want, you can torture the data until it tells you what you want it to say.
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What do the the coaches do all night?
Reginald Maudling's Shin replied to Mike Sixel's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
What I read was that they did position Plouffe before the AB (or at least they were comfortable with where he was), but he misinterpreted a sign meant to move Arcia back. As for "throwing him under the bus" what is Gardy supposed to do, not answer the question? I don't think that aspect is a big deal. I'm not a huge Gardy guy at all but complaining about this instance is pretty weak. Also, if Plouffe is too dumb to realize he shouldn't move so far back as to allow an easy bunt hit that could score a run then that's on him not Gardy. I get he's relatively new to the position but he's not 14 years old. -
Not every stat is a necessarily good or useful stat. If there are too many variables and too much variance within the variables your output isn't going to be worth a darn. Also there seems to me to be a randomness to whether a certain ump on a certain day will call a pitch a ball or a strike. I don't think you can take a bunch of random occurrences and try to formulate a scientific opinion out of the data. For example, If a certain pitch is an inch off the black, umpire A might call it a strike 60% of the time, and umpire B might call it 40% of the time. How can you make a definitive argument that the catcher had anything to do with the umpire's decision? It seems to me this stat is trying to chase a conclusion without recognizing the limitations in the data.
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I'm not smart or cunning enough to troll anybody.
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Yeah, if you're going to be a crappy hitter at least have the common courtesy to take a few pitches, like a gentleman.
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Was Wade Boggs the guy who popped out about once a year?
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Love those first pitch pop ups... The sign of a truly lousy hitter.