Murph

Woke up in a sweat last nite.  Dreamt that Jim Pohlad called and offered me the Twins GM job the day after the 2021 season ended.  While I was overcome with excitement, before accepting the position, I had 3 demands:
1.  I would be able to fire Rocco and his staff.  Would look for a veteran, old school manager like Buck Showalter or Bruce Boche. Maybe even James Rowson or (gasp!!) Ozzie Guillen??
2. JP had to agree to resign BB to the 7 year/$80MM contract agreed on plus whatever game-played incentives Bux's agent wanted(within reason of course)
3.  JP reiterated to return team to relevancy in 2022 and thus, would expand next year's payroll budget to $150MM.
We agreed on all of the above with one caveat : I had to provide him with a specific action plan for the offseason.  Here's my outline:
1. Sign a potential #1 starter.  First choice - Noah  Syndergaard.  Backup : Carlos Rodon(this add would not only likely fill our #1 spot, but also weaken our chief competitor)
2. Trade with Miami for a potential #2 starter, e.g., Sandy Alcantara or Pablo Lopez.  The Marlins in desperate need for offensive help could pick 2 out of Arraez, Jeffers/Garver, Kepler, Larnach. 
3. If Maeda was healthy, he would slot in as #3.  If not, resign Pineda or a comparable veteran pitcher with a successful track record.
4.  The #4/5 spots in the rotation would be open competition among Ober/Ryan/ Strotman/ Balozavic/ Winder/Dobnak .  Two of these should be no worse than Happ/Shoe with the likelihood that one or two would at least be league average.
5.  I would sign a real closer.  First choice - Craig Kimbrel.  He has arguably been one of the three best relievers this year with a nice bonus that his absence would weaken the Sox.
6.  A second proven late-inning pen arm would be signed, mainly one of the following:  Rosenthal/Hand/ Yates,  If not feasible then Taylor Rogers, followed by one of Duffy/Thielbar/ Alcala, would round out the top 3.  I think guys like Gant, Albers, Minaya, and Garza might do well in lower pressure situations.
7. Recognizing we have a big hole at SS, I would try to resign Simmons for less money.  If he signs elsewhere, then Polanco would be shifted, with one of Arraez/Miranda/ Martin taking his place at 2B.  Sorry, no money for one of the top FA SSs.  Let's cross our fingers Lewis is ready in 2023.
8.  Not sure yet of all my  deletions from the 40 man, but I would begin with Rooker, Thorpe, Smeltzer, Cave, Colome, Gordon.  My bench would include Turtle(assuming Garver or Jeffers moved) Rorvedt,, Refsnyder, Celestino and Miranda.
Assuming we've started with an $85-90MM payroll,  we have added #20MM for Thor or Rodon, $10MM for Pineda of #3 veteran, approx. $10MM in extra incentives for Buxton, $15MM for Kimbrel, and $10MM for a second bullpen arm,  Tight but doable thanks to the open wallet of Mr. P.
So is this plan realistic?  Would this revised team be expected to compete as soon as next year?  Help me out here, guys!!  I'm new to all this.

Early on this season Miguel Sano might have been the biggest mess he’s even been during his big league career. There was an inability to time a fastball, and he was a detriment to the Twins lineup. That has changed, and he’s back to being who he’s always been.
Rewind to the Twins slog through April and May to find a slumping Miguel Sano. The team was bad, and Sano owned a .675 OPS at that point. His playing time was reduced as he was splitting reps with Alex Kirilloff at first base. Eventually he’d begin to ride the pine even more often, and there was clamoring from fans to DFA him and pass him down to the St. Paul Saints.
Fast forward to where we are now. Sano isn’t having some sort of revolutionary resurgence, but since June 4 he’s posted an .815 OPS with 22 extra-base hits (including nine home runs) in 47 games. The batting average is respectable (.256) for a power hitter, and while the on-base percentage isn’t where he’d like it (.321) the number is passable.
All season long the problem has been timing more than anything else. His strikeout rate is 35.6%, or below his career average, and substantially below the 43.9% he posted in 2020. Sano’s hard hit rate is above his career average, and basically in line with some of his best seasons. Unfortunately, his barrel rate is at a three-year low, and that again is indicative of point of contact. Sano has dropped his whiff rate back to 2019 levels however, and his CSW% is right below his career norm.
What we’re seeing is the same player that Minnesota paid $30 million over three years for. The problem is that the peaks and valleys have been more pronounced, but at this point you’d have hoped the organization had a better idea as to the player they have. Sano is a former top prospect, but not in the vein of a Guerrero Jr. or even Buxton. Miguel’s tools have always been plus-plus power and a plus-plus arm. Yes, he was a young Dominican shortstop, but it quickly became apparent he wouldn’t stick there. He’s passable at third base, but the frame has always profiled better at first base, a position he’s actually adequate at.
The .923 OPS Sano posted in 2019 is very likely a mirage given his tendency to be inconsistent. His .859 OPS as an All-Star in 2017 makes a lot more sense. The average will always lag behind, but he actually commands the zone well and his hard contact output will always trend towards a slugging outcome. Given the run, he’s a good bet for 25-30 homers a year, and as a guy you can put in the bottom half of a lineup, that seems like a decent asset.
It’s very clear that Miguel Sano isn’t a foundational cornerstone. He can absolutely be worth what the Twins front office decided to pay him though. Committing to him on a regular basis rather than second guessing what he is through slumps doesn’t make a ton of sense. He’s the type of player that isn’t going to benefit from extended time off. Not all prospects pan out the same way, and while this isn’t the 99th percentile of where you’d like development to be, that might not be the worst thing any ways. If Sano was the best version of himself, paying him $30 million might not have happened in order to send him elsewhere for another hopeful return.
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