One of the most impactful changes that most likely will be coming as part of any new CBA after the current one expires at the end of the year is not going to be salary caps or salary floors. But instead, deferred salaries. There will not only be push from inside the game, but also from outside the game. It's about to get political!!
The Dodgers will single handedly drive change. Sure the Dodgers have the financial capabilities to outbid nearly every other team for nearly any player they want. That is a sizeable imbalance in and of itself. But starting the trend of deferred salaries on top of that??? That just makes it straight up unfair. Yes any team CAN do the same, but clearly not to the extent the Dodgers can/are. Yes the Dodgers are still subject to luxury tax penalties, as the average player salary is counted toward the comp balance threshold, but if you are not paying the salaries out of pocket then of course they can afford ANY luxury tax penalty. It only makes the top players MORE affordable.
Cities and states will be putting pressure on the league to tighten up contracts as well. The prime driver of this is Ohtani's deferred contract. California is pissed. They are in position to lose out on potentially MILLIONS fo dollars of taxes from Ohtani's deal. Shohei has $68M per year deferred until starting in 2034, Beginnign in 2034 he gets $68M per year for 10 years, that is $680M in deferred income. if/when Ohtani is done playing by 2034, he can simply move out of state and not have to pay California's income tax at roughly 13.3% that is a loss of tax revenue of over $70M dollars!! All while playing in a publicly funded stadium.
It is easy to see why such deferred salaries (as fun as Bobby Bonilla day is), will be coming to an end.
The simplest proposal, and one that I have been championing for years is to include or allow "Fluid Contracts". A Fluid Contract would allow the owners to spread out a players salary however they see fit, but 100% of the salary must be paid by the end of the contract. This gives teams better control/flexibility over their financials from year to year, would benefit player salaries, and help spread out top talent. You just determine a number of fluid salaries a team can have active at any time.
EXAMPLE:
Player A signs a 10 year $200M (round numbers for simple math) and AAV of $20M. Instead of being "locked in" to set amounts each year, The team pays whatever they want each year, frontloading, backloading, or balancing the contract as they go. At the start of the year there is a minimum amount a player must be paid annually. Again for simple math, let's say that is $1M, the team submits initial payroll to MLB by opening day. then the team submits a FINAL salary for those players sometime later in the season, let's say after the trade deadline. This gives team flexibility to better manage their payrolls from year to year and deal with unexpected costs, or unanticipated windfalls. This would also allow teams to manage luxury tax penalties. This would allow teams to get under the penalty for a year to reset and still retain their players.
This is a win for players, because by giving such unique flexibility to owners, the players could command/demand higher salaries.
In order to help ensure EVERY team benefits from these contracts, and big market teams do not just use this as a way to lock in even MORE talent, You put a limit on the number of fluid contracts each team can have. say 3-5 per team. This way a player (presumably a top player who would be "worthy" of a fluid contract, that may come with a higher AAV) may be more incentivized to sign with a team other than the big market teams, as well as giving smaller market teams to make more competitive offers. This would help spread talent out across the league.
Could get even more creative, and include potential draft picks in trades, If a team wants to trade for a player on a fluid contract, but they are at their limit, they could either trade one away, OR, they could trade away a first round draft pick to acquire an additional Fluid Contract. By and large it would be smaller market teams trading fluid players to bigger market teams, so this would help them rebuild faster. Players may see this as a bit of a restriction, but this could easily be offset by getting rid of the Qualifying Offer where teams have to give up draft picks to sign one. Being tagged with QA draft pick compensation has shown to DRASTICALLY reduce the earning potential of all but the very best QA FA. and allowing 1st round trades to acquire additional fluid contracts would act in the same way to protect small market teams.
I believe simply reshaping contracts like this would have a great positive impact on the game, and even hopefully prevent a lock out/strike.
The majority of Twins fans are treating the ownership as the bogeyman for the team’s demise, I’m here to pass the blame to the person who is most deserving of that title.
The Twins signed Carlos Correa to a “pillow” contract in March 2022 for $105,300,00 over 3 years which paid him $35,100,000 for 2022. In the 4 years prior to free agency Correa had a 2.9 WAR in 110 games, 3.8 WAR for 75 games, 1.6 WAR for 58 games and 7.3 WAR for 148 games. No question that he had a career year at the perfect time for reaching free agency both for on-field performance and player health.
The Twins had never been a player in free agency, but when Correa became available for short-term money the Twins decided that here was their opportunity for relevance. As happened in 2021, Correa had another career year with a 5.3 WAR for 136 games. Because of opt outs Correa decided to re-enter the free agency market where he found 2 teams willing to give huge contracts for crazy years. The problem for Correa became his medicals. Both the Giants and Mets rescinded their offer when their team physicians had found issues with his feet that they felt would cause the contract not to age well. Re-enter the Twins with a shorter term contract for similar annual salary. Their medical people gave their blessing to the term of the guaranteed years and the Twins resigned him thinking that had pulled off a heist of epic proportion. Well I don’t have to remind you of the results after this signing; in 2023 he had a 1.3 WAR in 135 games, in 2024 a 3.7 WAR but in 87 games and in 2025 a 0.1 WAR in 93 games before being traded. It looks like he is a better player in his contract year.
Now onto the blame game. For the initial signing, Derek Falvey was able to convince Twins ownership that this was a deal that would give credibility to the franchise and was worth the 1 year investment. With the promise of a surge in attendance and playoff money, ownership agreed. The business had started accumulating debt and a successful season on the field was the most painless way of addressing their growing liabilities on the balance sheet.
After a 7.3 WAR Correa was certainly worth $35M per year and with the opt outs, he was obviously going to re-enter the free agent market if he had a decent year. Well he had a 5.3 WAR year and filed for free agency after the 2022 season. When the market dried up and the news of medical issues became public and with many big market teams already having an elite player at shortstop, the Twins had another opportunity to resign an elite player for about the same pay but with fewer years than others offered. Somehow ownership again agreed to take on the financial burden.
In 2023 the Twins had their greatest success in recent memory. They finished 1st in the Central Division with a 87–75 record and swept the Blue Jays in the Wild Card round, before finally losing 3-1 in the ALDS. At this time the farm system was ready to produce and there were some attractive players who had reached free agency. Instead of: 1) signing a player to fill-in gaps through free agency, or 2) trading prospects for established major leaguers, ownership on a $30M cut from the salary budget.
Apparently at this time the Pohlad’s re-examined their finances and, in spite of logic telling them they needed to further invest, they had to revert back to pre-Correa payroll.
I don’t think that it was a coincidence that the $30M of decrease in budget was just about Correa’s salary. While we may blame ownership for reducing the payroll, I’m placing the blame totally with Derek Falvey for making the signing in the first place. A team without Correa at shortstop could have fared very well, especially if they were able to invest $10M of that $30M on player acquisitions. Instead he bet on Correa being at his prime.
My feeling is that Derek Falvey should have faced the guillotine rather than Rocco (which even he admitted) or Joe Pohlad.
Falvey has a monopoly of control and whether it is controlling the business side of the organization, or through pre-game meetings with his manager to give his opinion on decisions that should be made by his manager, he has authority well beyond his capabilities. Until the business model is redefined where the ownership gives Falvey the money for groceries, he does the shopping and the manager decides what to cook, the franchise will continue resting near the bottom of the standings.
The best solution is to get rid of Falvey.
