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kab21

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Everything posted by kab21

  1. kab21
    In addition Joe's bad years were following a significant injury. It appears that his condition is improving while his aging counteracts that. I am not expecting last season again but he could be a high OBP 8 HR guy for a couple more years.
  2. kab21
    I think there is a chance that Joe comes back on a favorable deal to be a spot starter and bench bat after this season. It would be a good combo with Sano if Sano can still play 50% of the games at 3B. He still has a decent amount of value in that role. But I also don't think that Joe will have a lot of value around the league regardless of what his WAR is. WAR is handy for determining a rough value of a player but it can't be used solely to determine contract size. Especially using a one year sample. Joe was worth 1.2M - 7.6M - 18.1M the last 3 seasons. A 36 year non power hitting 1B that can't play everyday almost definitely isn't getting >10M/yr. He is also unlikely to get a 2 year contract imo.
  3. kab21
    I think we are jumping the gun on Rooker a little here. I don't see him as an opening day starter next season unless he absolutely blows up this year. Even if he has a good year it seems likely that he would spend half the season in Ft Myers and half the season in Chattanooga. If needed he could open 2019 with the Twins but most likely the typical progression would leave him in AAA until needed. Mauer and the 2019 Twins comes down to Sano and 3B for me. I just don't see him as a 3B but if he can continue to play 80 games/season there then there is room for Mauer on the team.
  4. kab21
    I don't think I have said that you are hating. I think you are making an issue out of something that is an inevitable issue for all teams. Almost every team needs to add a starter during two consecutive offseasons. It is far better to have short term contracts for good but not great players and aside from Darvish those were the players available. And the Twins are very much in a position to add a near elite starter if one becomes available because they don't have long term commitments in the rotation and elsewhere. These are good things.
  5. kab21
    Why is it a problem to do the same in two years? And how do you know that they will have the same needs in two years? The Twins have some legit rotation talent in the upper minors. It would have been risky to roll with that this season but those pitchers are going to have opportunities in the next two years. In addition to that these deals and the other major expirings allow the Twins to chase bigger targets if they want to.
  6. kab21
    3/75 was my upper limit for Arrieta but I significantly prefer 1 year of Lance Lynn. And my upper limit of 3/75 was when the Twins hadn't added any pitchers and needed to make a move. The FO though shrewdly avoided this though.
  7. kab21
    I have no idea what you even mean by this. Nobody is crowning anyone anything. This was a very good offseason where the Twins were able to get a lot done. They made 6 significant additions (plus Pineda) and kept any future payroll damage. They took care of the short term issues in the bullpen. And arguably most of these additions (except Lynn) are under control for two seasons so they don't have to do it again next year. Signing contracts for any longer period of time quickly becomes a very risky issue. Which of these players do you want to guarantee 3 or more years to? What more could you expect in a single offseason?
  8. kab21
    This FO just can't win. There would have been criticisms about the back end of a 6 year Darvish contract or a 4 yr Lynn/Cobb contract. But now there are criticisms because the FO signed guys that will only be here one year (Lynn - Rodney - Duke). Yes, it would be nice to have an option or a second year on Lynn but the one year deal is what got him to sign here. I will be happy that he is here in 2018 and I will be happy that the Twins can be free of Rodney and Duke next year if they want to.
  9. kab21
    This is an actual good analysis since it doesn't flag things that are prone to one year SSS. I absolutely have concerns about Lynn (and Odorizzi). One of them could be a lemon this year but those concerns are what made me dislike the idea of signing Lynn (or Cobb) to a 4-5 year contract. They have limited the damage financially if their FIP catches up to them.
  10. kab21
    Will you embrace his outlier BAPIP stat just as much as his outlier HR/FB% stat? Most people would expect both of these to revert back to a more normal level. And if you just want to be snarky then I will consider that you don't have anything meaningful to add to the discussion.
  11. kab21
    There is absolutely reason for concern but it isn't about a stat like HR/FB%. The concern should be that he had a 4.75 xFIP which removes HR rate from the equation. In 2017 Lynn was very lucky in BAPIP and unlucky in HR/FB%. Both of these stats commonly show a lot of single season variation and a single season of either shouldn't be used in a predictive element.
  12. kab21
    This signing is about value. They got someone that might be better than anyone in their rotation on a cheap one year deal. I am all aboard the Berrios train but I am quite skeptical about Ervin at his age and coming back from an early season injury. Odorizzi has the same kind of question marks as Lynn but worse. You just do these kind of moves regardless of what you think about other players.
  13. kab21
    4 years of 7% is a trend. 1 year of something different is not a trend. A trend would be several years of increasing numbers. For example - 7% to 9% to 11% to 14% There are plenty of issues with Lynn and ultimately they are reasons why he didn't get a 4 year contract at 15M/yr. His HR rate last is worth nothing as a concern (did something change or was he unlucky one year) but it isn't a trend.
  14. kab21
    Two points aren't a trend. This is the definition of a something that you would expect to revert back to his previously established baseline.
  15. kab21
    Jazz, Nuggets, Blazers and Clippers all win (Pelicans lose). My confidence in the Wolves winning right now is so low that I can only hope that the other teams lose now. That is where we are now. Sad.
  16. kab21
    Wolves = DRose OKC = Brewer Now Brewer isn't that great but he is an actual wing player and he is still likely a very good defender. This seems like a much more useful move than DRose but of course Brewer wasn't a Bull.
  17. kab21
    Granite has options so I think it would take an injury for him to get a spot. Vargas has little value considering the Twins have two 1B, a 3B that should DH (or maybe play 1B), a backup OF that should only DH and a backup catcher that is better with the bat than the glove. The Twins will be lucky to get an insignificant PTBNL for him. I also don't see how Aybar beats out the younger and likely better Adrianza. Grossman might not be great in the field but he can at least play OF and imo that easily puts him ahead of Vargas. I am not sure if he is still on the team at the end of the season (in favor of Granite) but he will be there to start the season.
  18. kab21
    Are you suggesting that a pitcher with a history of arm problems starts the season in the bullpen and then moves to the rotation later? This sounds like the worst possible transition for him. If you want to limit his innings then let him pitch 125-ish in the rotation (AAA or MLB) and then move him to the bullpen down the stretch with no back to back days.
  19. kab21
    I think one of Rose or Jones would be playing as a wing when together on the court because wing depth is nil on this team right now. Bjelica (WHAT A GAME!) is starting as a wing and Thibs has made it clear that Crawford is the only wing that he will play. This move basically steals garbage time minutes from Hunt or in the scenario where Wiggins, Bjelica or Crawford are also injured. Perhaps Rose is better than Hunt but we are doomed in that scenario. I prefer to play Aldrich/Patton with KAT as a wing.
  20. kab21
    Yes, the Twins wouldn't have to give up a high draft pick to sign Lynn. I am all for a 15M/yr deal for 1 or 2 (and possibly 3) years. He isn't a great (1 or 2) but he is probably a very good pitcher. The reason I say probably is that his FIP/xFIP is pretty bad but I think he could improve next season in his second season back from TJ and potentially come close to being the pitcher he was before TJ. The downside is that his results (ERA) matches his 2017 FIP (no improvement) and he isn't very good. At that point the damage is minimal on a 1-2 yr deal. There is risk but my confidence in Lynn would be the 2nd highest (behind Berrios) of Twins pitchers entering the season.
  21. kab21
    Just great. I can sort of see adding a wing but Rose can't shoot or really contribute much anywhere. Let's hope that he is in the 3rd rotation of players that only plays 3 minutes total every 3 weeks. But you know that he is going to get 12 min/game.
  22. kab21
    It is a numbers game. Slegers - Gonsalves - Romero - Jorge are all ahead of Littel and will be in the AAA rotation. And this doesn't include Enns (probably in the bullpen) or Mejia (probably starting the season in AAA) or someone else that I have forgotten. Littel being in AA is due to the Twins pitching depth in the upper minors and not where he necessarily should be.
  23. kab21
    Right now I feel like they will completely miss the playoffs or best case get the 8 seed. Ugh...
  24. kab21
    But having to get consent to send them down a pitcher vs a player that has options (Mejia) is a big advantage to a guy like Sanchez. Hopefully it is only used for a tiebreaker but I think it is likely that Hughes or Sanchez get every chance to take the #4 and (eventual) #5 spots.
  25. kab21
    I am excited about Polanco because the Twins appear to have found a starting MI that will be cheap for several years. I don't see a comparison to Santana. Polanco already had half a season of MLB experience and a .756 OPS prior to last season. He also has K and BB rates that support continued success unlike Santana. You are right that there isn't enough of a track record to guarantee anything but it seems pretty likely that Polanco can put up a .725+ OPS as a middle infielder. I am not as optimistic that he will approach an .800 OPS since that would put him at borderline all-star level at SS (always under consideration but rarely making the all-star game).
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