grover738

Interesting, but Sano was moved to 3B from SS for a reason, lack of range. He has good speed, even very good for his size, but his agility/range/quickness just isn't what you'd like to see in a SS, thus the move to 3B. Keep in mind SS is a more difficult and valuable defensive position than 3B, and there is more talk about moving Sano to RF/1B than SS, which tells you how likely it would be for him to move to SS. Another thing to think about is that Plouffe isn't exactly tearing it up at 3B either, with average offense and below average defense. Taking Sano out of the equation, I'm not certain that we really have better 3B prospects than SS prospects, nor am I convinced that Plouffe that much better than Florimon.

Thanks for the link. Kepler has a real simple, clean swing. And that was a bomb!

Great write-up, thanks! One question - (assuming Appel somehow drops and is available for the twins) - Is there any other reason (besides his agent being Scott Boras) that people think it's going to take extra $ to get Appel signed? He's almost 23 and pitched a ton in college, and this is considered a somewhat weak draft. Will he be drafted higher next year, in what could be a stronger draft? Probably not. 8th last year, didn't sign, 4th this year. Mission accomplished. I hope the twins take him at #4. But why would they offer one cent over slot? So Appel can waste another year, possibly get injured, and come back as a 24 year old with another 2000+ pitches on his arm and even LESS leverage? How would that possibly put him in a spot to make more money over his career? Am I missing something?

So last year Appel fell to the 8th pick? If this year he goes on the 4th pick (unlikely, but that's the scenario we're discussing) does he really think it will be worth it play a year of indy ball, just to potentially move up a spot or two in the draft? He may go backwards, by the time he would be drafted next year he'd be almost 24 years old with five+ years of pitching on that arm. He has no leverage. If he does fall to the twins, I doubt he gets more than 10% over slot. So I see no way picking Appel will "ruin" the rest of the draft. Keep in mind we'd likely have to pay Stewart at least as much as Appel. Stewart has as much leverage as you can possibly have. Stewart comes with way more risk but not much if any more upside, and he won't help the twins until 2016 at the earliest. If Appel is there at the 4th pick the twins have to take him. Offer him slot value, maybe a tad over. Boras is aggressive, but not stupid.

I agree, I was just posting on what I saw in one game. The kid has fire, he wants to win. He was pissed at the errors, but I don't know that he was pissed at the defenders. Could have just been pissed that it happened. He was nice to my kids after the game. I'd much rather have a guy with electric stuff and some fire in him than a robot with a 90mph fastball.

I'll also say that if he's available I hope the twins get him. If the plan is to contend in 2015/16/17, I don't think there is a player in the draft that would help more than Appel. Meyer/Appel/Gibson as 1-3 starters with Diamond/Worley/May/Baxendale/Hendriks fighting it out for the 4/5 spot with Berrios on the way. I'd take him over Bryant (we have offense coming) or Gray (doesn't seem quite as polished, I'd say Gray is a bigger risk)

Agree. I don't see how Boras can demand over slot money. How does he put himself in a better position by holding out and delaying his big payday another year? If things go well, he could potentially start his arbitration clock in 2014 if he signs and starts playing, plus if you just sign and say all the right things you can make extra $ in endorsements. Or hold out, play indy ball (making nothing, maybe getting hurt) for most of 2013, then and at best be a mid summer callup next year, and get less money in endorsements because nobody likes you. Is there any example of a player being better off financially from not signing after their senior year? Was JD Drew a senior when he did his holdout? Did he end up better off? Someone write an article looking at college senior holdouts, that would be interesting.

Assuming Gray and Appel are off the board, if Bryant is there the Twins have to take him, especially since he's righthanded. Hopefully either he or Sano can stick at 3B. Worst case, neither sticks at 3rd, there is still plenty of room for them - LF, RF, 1B, DH.

I saw his last start in CR. He gave up quite a few hits, and while some were more well placed than well struck, quite a few were hit well. But one thing you won't see in the box score is how he reacted (poorly) to defensive lapses. He should have gotten out of the first unscathed, but the 2B Pimentel completely botched a very routine grounder. Berrios was clearly upset with him, shaking his head, staring at the ground. The pitching coach bolted out of the dugout and had a very one way conversation with him. Later in the inning, the catcher messed up a first & third situation with a really poor throw to 2nd, resulting in a delayed steal of home. I checked Berrios, his reaction was a bit more muted, but he still clearly showed his dissapointment in his defense. So, if he is promoted a bit more slowly that he should be based on the numbers, I think his lack of compsure on the mound may be one reason. We spend a lot of time on the forum looking at numbers, mechanics, body types, etc, sometime we forget these are pretty much kids. Half of them are probably scouting the crowd looking for good looking women. I saw four of the players pile into a beat up Dodge Durango after the game, laughing, goofing off, not a care in the world. Those days were 20 years ago for me, but when I saw that, I was thinking that looks like trouble, looked like they were off to a rock quarry for a kegger.

I don't really remember seeing a throw by Polanco, maybe I was getting a beer and missed it. I'm just saying he looked confident and comfortable at SS. I've seen the opposite - Pimentel at 2B, like Sano last year at 3B. For sure, he'd make a good 2B. He doesn't really have the rangy, agile athletic build you want to see in a SS. Maybe the twins finally have hope on the horizon at 2B, with Rosario and Polanco if he doesn't stick at SS.

No. You don't use the 4th overall pick on a player with limited upside, not with Kohl Stewart on the board. If they want to take the safe route, take Shipley. Plus, things are lining up for the Twins to have a real talent influx in 2014/15/16. This guy would not be ready by 2016, but a college arm or very talented HS pitcher (Stewart) probably would be. Plus, they have Hermann, Josmil Pinto at AA, and Koch at Hi-A. Not loaded at catcher by any means, but it's nowhere near as big of a need as starting pitching or middle infield.

I took the family down to a CR Kernels game on Saturday. We were going to go Sunday too but it got rained out. Random observations from someone who hasn't played since high school, and wasn't very good then: No surprise, but Buxton stands out. He has muscles showing in places nobody else does, like the back of his leg above his knee and the back of his neck. Like Sano last year, he noticeably stands out physically. My kid asked him after the game what, if any, exercises he did/does to help his speed. He laughed and said "nothing". Just pure, raw athleticism. Amazing to see. Berrios pitched, and did better than his line (5IP, 9H, 4R, 1ER, 8SO, 1BB) Some of his strikeouts were just overpowering and he looked to have very good control. The stadium gun said he hit 94. It baffles me that he can throw 94, he's not that big and his motion isn't as smooth or natural as I expected it to be. He was the victim of some bloopy hits and a really bad error in the first inning by Candido Pimentel. After the error, Berrios stomped around behind the mound, shaking his head and acting disgusted. A coach (I believe it was Lucas) bounced out of the dugout and had what looked like a very one-way conversation with him. It didn't seem to do much, as Berrios showed more frustration later in the inning on a 2nd/Home double steal, when Arias's throw to second bounced about 15 ft. short of 2nd base, allowing the runner on 3rd to score easily. After reading about Harrison all spring, it was a surprising to see that he really doesn't look like a power hitter. He's just an average looking guy, maybe 6'1" 200? Not athletic looking at all, looks like a guy who could be spending 8 hours a day at a desk. He just has a swing that produces power. I know this is baseball and that not everyone has to look like a monster, but how many really average looking guys end up being successful power hitters at the major league level? I guess it's better to hit like a power hitter than look like one, but it always baffles me when professional athletes don't appear to be lifting. Somebody needs to feed Candido Pimentel. He is off the charts skinny. My 75 lb 10 year old said that he thought is legs were thicker than Candido's. I'm excited about Polanco, he looked (to my untrained eye) to be really comfortable at SS and at the plate. Hicks has a big frame, he would be a monster with another 20 lbs. Walker is already there. Tyler Duffy was really nice signing and chatting after the game, he's got that barrel build that's great to see in pitchers. It was pretty clear that CR was loaded with talent, but Burlington played clean and got the breaks. Can't wait to get down to CR again soon!

I think Riverbrian and I are saying the same thing. He says whichever team gets hot wins. I say it's pretty much random who wins. I guess it's obvious that which ever team gets hot wins. I think it's random who gets hot. A bit more digging. Here are the playoff records and ERA of the Cy Young award winners the past 10 years. 2011 - Justin Verlander - 20.1 IP, 5.31 ERA, Tigers - 5 wins, 6 losses, lost in ALCS 2010 - Roy Halladay - 22 IP, 2.45 ERA, Phillies - 5 wins 4 losses, lost in NLCS 2007 - CC Sabathia - 15.1 IP, 8.80 ERA, Indians - 6 wins 5 losses, lost in ALCS 2006 - Johan Santana - 8.0 IP, 2.25 ERA, Twins - 0 wins 3 losses, lost in ALDS 2005 - Bartolo Colon 8.0 IP, 4.50 ERA, Angels - 4 wins 6 losses, lost in ALCS 2005 - Chris Carpenter 21.0 IP, 2.14 ERA, Cardinals - 5 wins, 4 losses, lost in NLCS 2004 - Johan Santana -12 IP, 0.75 ERA, Twins - 1 wins 3 losses, lost in ALDS 2004 - Roger Clemons - 25 IP, 3.60 ERA, Astros - 6 wins 6 losses, lost in NLCS So teams made the playoffs 8 times in the last 10 years while having the BEST pitcher in their league. These teams were "built to win in the playoffs". And those teams have combined for a 32-37 record and have never made the world series. Oh, and I see the Yankees losing the last couple of years not as a random thing, I see it as proof there is a God. And I am opposed to shooting crabs.

I'd be interested in seeing where that ends up after crunching the data. One tough thing about the playoffs is that you could play between 3 games and 19 games assuming no play-in games. You could go 11-3 and win it all. Or you could lose the first 3 games and be done. Maybe you were about to go on an 11 game run, but you'll never know because you got swept out in the first 3 games. Drawing conclusions on teams that lost their first 3 games or 3 out of 4 would be difficult. If everyone played 19 games, and the team with the best record won, well then you could draw better correlations between whatever regular season factor you select and playoff success.

I have a way to quantify the concept. Players who have world series rings have "it" and players who don't don't. BUT - "it" is only good for the year you won it, not for the future. Just look at the Giants from last year. Yes, they had Cain, who was 5th in Cy Young voting. They came back after being down 2-0 to the Reds (who had Johnny Cueto, 4th in Cy Young voting), then came back from being down 3-1 to beat the Cardinals (who had Lohse, 6th in Cy Young voting) then swept the Tigers, who are "built" to win postseason games, with Verlander (Close 2nd in Cy Young voting) at the top of the rotation. Random. It's tempting to look at the weaknesses (I'm no Jason Tyner fan) of Twins teams that failed in the playoffs and, in hindsight, say that they were missing something, then look at their weakness as a team, which was (ignoring Santana and pre-surgery Liriano) the lack of high end fireballers, then say that you need one or more high end fireballers to win. But the great thing about baseball is that all the information is out there, a few clicks away. And the only thing that info shows is.........(drumroll).......you have to make the playoffs to win the world series. Because a 5 or 7 game series between two of the best 8 teams in baseball is a random crap shoot.

Ok, let's look at strikeouts, in my book the best measure of "dominating stuff". Let's compare the team that won the world series to the other 3 teams that made the playoffs from their league in each of the last 10 years: 2012 - Giants - 3rd out of the 4 NL playoff teams 2011 - Cardinals - 3rd out of the 4 NL playoff teams 2010 - Giants - 1st out of the 4 NL playoff teams 2009 - NYY - 1st out of the 4 NL playoff teams 2008 - Phillies - 4th out of the 4 NL playoff teams 2007 - Red Sox - Tied for 1st out of 4 AL playoff teams 2006 - Cardinals - 4th out of the 4 NL playoff teams 2005 - White Sox - 2nd out of the 4 AL playoff teams 2004 - Red Sox - 2nd out of the 4 AL playoff teams 2003 - Florida - 2nd out of the 4 NL playoff teams So, 3rd, 3rd, 1st, 1st, 4th, 4th, T1st, 4th, 2nd, 2nd, 2nd. See a pattern? I don't. It's random. Because it's a crap shoot. 162 games determines the best teams. 5 & 7 game series determine the world series champ. Just get to the playoffs, anything could happen. Just because it didn't happen for the Twins doesn't mean they were built wrong. It just means they didn't win it all. Everyone wants a reason, sometimes there is no reason. There seems to be this belief that the only way you win a world series with with a dominant #1 and/or #2 starter who strikes out a ton of people and carries the team to victory, winning the MVP. The only examples I could find of this happening in the last 20 years was the 1995 Braves (Glavine) the 2001 Diamondbacks (Schilling & Johnson) and the 2003 Marlins (Beckett). Hamels won the MVP in 2008, but only struck out 8 guys in 13 innings. Livian Hernandez won it in 1997 with 7 strikeouts in 13.6 innings. Heck, in 1991 Jack Morris only struck out 9 guys in 23 innings, for a Blackburnish K/9 rate of 3.5. Think a K/9 rate of 3.5 would produce an ERA of 1.17 over a 162 game season? It did over 3 starts in October of 1991. Meanwhile, guys like David Freese, Edgar Renteria, David Eckstein, Jermaine Dye, Scott Brosius and Pat Borders have won world series MVPs. Why? Because anything can happen in 7 games.

Thanks for the tip, John, I've been wanting to see it.

Oy. Just thought of those Butera at catcher days with Dozier, Florimon and Butera batting 7-8-9. There should be an asterisk on the opposing pitcher's ERA, not sure he deserves one full IP for getting through those three. Ok, that was harsh, but man. Those three at 7-8-9 is something that should only happen in August when everyone is hurt, not sometime in April when everyone is healthy.

He'd have more value as a trade candidate if he was under control for an extra year.... The other thing to think about is that he never played in Rochester. At a certain point, the Red Wings are going to get pissed if the best players skip Rochester. They're running a business, want to put fans in the stands, the best way to do this is a better product on the field. Clete Thomas or whoever they'll have in center if Hicks skips AAA isn't going to sell tickets. I get that keeping Rochester happy isn't everything, but it is another factor to consider.

IMO, it is all about just getting to the playoffs. Once you're there, you might get hot and make a run. I'd argue that a look at the recent world series winners shows you just have to get there. 2012 - Giants - tied for 3rd best record in NL. 2011 - Cardinals - 4th best record in NL 2010 - Giants - 2nd best record in NL, 92 wins 2009 - NYY - best record in AL 2008 - Phillies - 2nd best record in NL 2007 - Red Sox - 2nd best record in AL 2006 - Cardinals - 4th best record in NL 2005 - White Sox - best record in AL 2004 - Red Sox - 2nd best record in AL 2003 - Florida - 3rd best record in NL So over the last 10 years, the "worst" team to make the playoffs (from the league that won) has won the world series as often as the best team. Baseball playoffs are a crap shoot. Any team can beat any other team in a 7 games series, even more so in a 5 game series. Just because the twins didn't win it all during their recent run of success doesn't mean they were doing anything wrong, it just means that it didn't happen.

That looks like a 65 win roster to me. I hope they keep Hicks down for a few months to gain another year of service from him, no need to lose that year of control when he probably won't be that huge of an upgrade over Mastroianni. That bench is awful. I too think Pelfry will be one of the five starters. The 2-7 lineup is ok, should score some runs, but with those starters combined with that defense (weak in LF, RF, 3B) look out. Hopefully they can trade some combo of Morneau / Willingham / minor league outfielder for a decent young middle infielder that can come up with the 2014/15 youth movement.

A few things I noticed from the list - there were only six 80 (the highest ranking) given out, and two are Twins prospects. Gerrit Cole's (Pirates P) Fastball Miguel Sano's Power Byron Buxton's Speed Billy Hamilton's (Reds of/ss) Speed Bruce Rendon's (Tigers P) Fastball Roman Quinn's (Phillies SS) Speed Pretty cool that the only 80 for Power was Sano's. Anybody else surprised that Sano got a 75 for his arm? I saw him last year when Beloit visited Cedar Rapids, he definetly has a cannon, but a 75? Higher than Buxton or Hicks? Also, Sano was the only player with two separate ratings greater than 70. Can't wait to go down to CR this summer. Great park, cheap tickets, cheap beer, players are accessible, I can't encourage people to make the trip enough!

I've never been to Beloit, but I saw the Snappers play the Cedar Rapids Kernels back in June. Great facility, and an hour closer to the twin cities than Beloit, only 2.5 hours for me. Player access was not a problem, just wait outside the locker rooms, every player walks outside after the game. Moves are always tough, but Cedar Rapids makes a ton of sense. I talked to a scout, he said that Beloit was by far the worst facility in the Midwest League. I agree about the players - very approachable. Especially nice were AJ Petterson and Nate Roberts, both took the time to talk to my boys about baseball. I've seen players talk to kids before because they know they're supposed to talk to kids. AJ and Nate talked to my boys because they wanted to talk about baseball with kids. Hope to see them again in August when the Snappers come to Cedar Rapids again, but I'm guessing Nate is on his way to Ft. Myers soon given his age and performance.

I do not understand how players can be in someone's system for 2+ years and still be described as "skinny". It is not hard to put on weight, muscle or fat. I'm making an assumption that Jenkins would be better with some more weight, which may not be true. But IF the Cards believe that some more mass would be beneficial, how does he not have it on him? Especially a pitcher - they have 4 days off between starts. Eat a lot and lift heavy objects, you will get bigger, especially at that age when you're full of testosterone. I understand that arm flexibility is important so you don't see to many strongman type upper body builds, but at least lower body? Get that kid into a squat rack!

I'm going to be positive and note he had an RBI double in one of his two at-bats.