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Supfin99

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Blog Entries posted by Supfin99

  1. Supfin99
    So ESPN and Jeff Passan just published an article saying the White Sox are the team to beat now in the American League. He feels that way now due to them signing Hendricks. Now Hendricks is a very good reliever and might be the best closer in all of baseball. But how much better did he actually make them? If the White Sox had a bullpen like the Phillies last year and still only last out to us by 1 game I might buy all this hype but they didn’t. Alex Colomé pitched great as a closer last year and that is who Hendricks is replacing. Last year Colomé pitched in 21 games in the regular season and the White Sox went 18-3 in those games with Colomé saving 12 of those wins and having no losses. Of the 3 team losses, 2 were in extra innings where Colomé pitched a shutout ninth to get the games into extras. How much better could anyone have pitched in the closer position for the White Sox last year? They couldn’t have because Colomé was not responsible for the losing runs scored in any of the 21 games he pitched in. I know that Hendricks peripheral numbers were all better than Colomé but at the end of the day it is still about wins and losses. How much can Hendricks really improve them when Colomé was basically perfect last year from a win loss standpoint?
     
    Are the White Sox a definite challenger for the AL Central? Absolutely they are. Are they the favorite for the AL? Maybe, but not because they just signed the best closer in the baseball. They already received “perfect” production from the closer position last season and all they can do is go down from there.
  2. Supfin99
    I just read the ESPN article about possible super teams or teams that will win 100 games. The locks listed were the Yankees, Astros and Dodgers. In the American League the Rays were the teams listed as the Prime Contender and the wild cards were the Twins and the Angels. The fact that we were listed with the Angels, a team that won 72 games last year, is a story for anther post. The question on the Twins was"if their pitching works out". Last time I checked we won 101 games last year and I don't see how our lineup is not at least as good if not even better this year with Arraez and Buxton for a whole year and Donaldson replacing Cron.
    So let's discuss our pitching. We have Berrios and Odorizzi back, and I will discuss them in greater detail shortly. The next players that pitched the most innings were Kyle Gibson, Martin Perez and Michael Pineda. Pineda will miss almost exactly a quarter of the season but has a good chance of matching last years innings total of 149 or at least coming close. Big Mike also gets to pitch only in the warmer months which seemed to be his best part of last season. So the staff comparison really comes down to replacing Gibson and Perez. Those 2 combined to make 58 starts and pitch 325 innings last year. Gibson had a 5.12 ERA and Perez had 4.84. They both had WHIP around 1.5. That is what we are replacing. That is not exactly Koufax and Drysdale. Even if the Maeda trade falls thru the leading candidates to replace those 2 are Homer Bailey, Randy Dobnak, Devin Smeltzer and Lewis Thorpe. For Dobnak, Smeltzer and Thorpe their respective ERA's were 1.59, 3.86 and 6.18. Both Dobnaks and Thorpes ERA's were a little misleading. The respective FIP for those 3 was 2.90, 4.58 and 3.47. For comparison sake Gibson and Perez came in at 4.26 and 4.66. Thorpe takes a huge jump due to his excellent SO totals and an unsustainable .438 BABIP. Where is this huge drop-off that would cause our win total to plummet? If anything it looks like we would be slightly better if those 3 combined to eat up the innings pitched by Perez and Gibson. Homer Bailey pitched decent last year after 4 years of not pitching much or well. His 163 IP was the most he had managed since 2013. It was his 1st time with an ERA below 5.5 since 2014. Martin Perez was coming off a similar 2018 in which he didn't much but when he did he was terrible. If Bailey can repeat his 2019, his numbers across the board would be better than what Perez was able to do last season.
     
    However you look at the candidates at the back end of the rotation I don't see how you can make any sensible argument that we are worse off then we were last year at this time. Knowing now what we received from Gibson and Perez and seeing what the peripherals were for the candidates to replace them, it would be hard to not acknowledge that we are at least as well off going into this season if not actually in a better position than last year.
     
    Now let's look at Jose Berrios. I think he will continue his improvement and will climb to be one of the top 20 pitchers in baseball. Last year Jose's overall numbers took a slight downturn from his previous season even though his ERA ended up slightly lower. His H/9 and K/9 were both slightly better in 2018. But a big reason for this very slight downturn we due to a very bad 6 game stretch in Aug and the 1st week of Sept. His numbers during that 6 game stretch were truly awful.
     
    6 G 31.1 IP 47 H 29 R 15 BB 36 SO 8 HR
     
    Those numbers equate to averages of
     
    8.33 ERA 13.5 H/9 4.31 BB/9 10.35 K/9 1.98 WHIP 2.31 HR/9
     
    His number in his other 26 starts were ACE level performance
     
    26 G 169 IP 147 H 53 R 36 BB 159 SO 18 HR
     
    This lead to averages of
     
    2.82 ERA 7.72 H/9 1.91 BB/9 8.46 K/9 1.07 WHIP 0.96 HR/9
     
    So before Aug 1 Berrios was having a season that would have put him among the very best pitchers in baseball and would have definitely garnered him Cy Young votes. Now I know you can't cherry pick numbers and every start counts. But I do think that Berrios had a bad stretch that somewhat misleadingly brought down the rest of his numbers. This was a time when maybe his arm was tired, or he had a little bit of a confidence crisis or maybe just some bad luck. Could have been a mixture of all 3. I love Berrios' work ethic and I feel certain he sent this entire offseason working towards finding a solution for his late season fade. It really is the last step for him to becoming a truly elite pitcher. He may not be the ace of a Verlander or Cole level, but who is. There are maybe 5 pitchers in all of baseball who are at that level. Where Berrios can slide into is the next tier of the top 20 pitchers in baseball. Not sure what everyone else's definition of ace is but I think top 20 is pretty close.
     
    If we do acquire Maeda, it isn't even comparable to last season. He would immediately be a vast improvement over Gibson and Perez.
  3. Supfin99
    Hey everyone I just bought 4 season tickets for 20 games the rest of the season. I live in Dallas and will be going to just a few games when we come home and I will give some away to friends and family. I also want to use some of the games to raise money for a cause I feel strongly about, as former military, the Wounded Warriors Project. I’m hopeful that we will auction off tickets to raise money for WWP.
     
    The first game I have available is for tonight. I am still working out the logistics of doing an auction on Twins Daily with Seth and the gang so tonight will be on the honor system. If anyone knows a veteran or would be willing to donate $100 to WWP the tickets are yours. Just respond in the comments and I will send you the tickets.
     
    My seats for tonight’s game are Section 107, row 7 seats 11 thru 14. They are really nice seats. Please take photos of you at the game and post to Twins Daily. I really want to raise awareness for the 1st auction.
     
    The link for making a donation https://support.woundedwarriorproject.org/Default.aspx?tsid=10043
  4. Supfin99

    Bullpen Options

    By Supfin99,

    First let me say I realize that this article will probably disappoint most fans because I am going to list out all of the internal options the Twins have versus trading away prospects. One of the biggest reason I feel this way is that for all the groaning I read in the comments section about our bullpen, it has been really good for a vast majority of the time. Some of the fungible pieces that the Twins have rotated thru the bottom of the bullpen such as Austin Adams, Chase DeJong and Andrew Vasquez have given up a lot of runs. Those 3 alone have given up 12 runs in only 3.2 innings. Taking just those 3 out gives the bullpen a 3.59 ERA. The top10 pieces in the bullpen which I list as B Parker, T Rogers, T May, R Harper, M Magill, M Morin, T Duffey, F Romero, T Hildenberger and Z Littell have combined for an ERA 2.92 of over 130.1 innings. They have allowed 119 hits and 40 walks for a whip of 1.22 and struck out 133. Those are all excellent numbers. It shows we don't need to rush into a deal and give away prospects for relievers. Reason number 2 is my list below. These are all internal options who should be given a chance.
     
    1. Cody Stashak
    Cody is domination AA right now and is deserving of a promotion to AAA any day. He has 35Ks against just 3 walks in 23 innings and only has allowed 14 hits. Cody basically pitched the entire season last year in AA also with excellent numbers. He's ready for AAA and could soon be ready for the majors. The prospect handbook says his FB sits in low 90s with good life and has a good CB and changeup.
     
    2. Kohl Stewart
    The Twins may have the same idea as me when it comes to trying some of these starters have been decent but not outstanding at AA and AAA and see if they can squeeze just a little better stuff out of them by moving them to the bullpen. Zack Littell came up and looked really good last night. The same could happen for Stewart. Stewart numbers have been OK as a starter at AAA, 71.1 IP between last year and this with an ERA of 4.13 on 75 hits allowed and 28 BB. His K/9 is 7.95. His FB sits in low 90's but he can hit 96,97. Only having to pitch an inning or 2 should allow those upper 90's FB to become more consistent.
     
    3. Lewis Thorpe
    Thorpedo has looked very good in his last 3 outings. In his last 16 innings he's given up 5 runs on 15 hits with while his K/BB is 19 to 1. His FB sits 92-94 but he could also get a bump by moving to BP. He also would provide a second lefty.
     
    4. Brusdar Graterol
    I think there is a very good reason that the Twins are limiting his IP so far this year. In looking at the boxscores it looks like Graterol has been on an 80 pitch limit in games. This has limited his IP to an average of 5 per game. I think the Twins have every intention of Graterol pitching at Target Field later this season. That could be in a 5th starter role to replace Pineda or replacing someone that is injured. Or he could take the Johan Santana route and get his feet wet in big leagues as a reliever. Out of the bullpen Graterol would most likely sit at 99/100. His changeup and slider are good pitches. He would be a dynamic weapon out of the pen in Sept and Oct. We know speed plays up when the weather turns cold in Oct. I doubt it is fun to hit a 100MPH FB when it is 45 degrees in Minneapolis in Oct.
     
    There are other starters who this might work for such as Jorge Alcala and Devin Smeltzer. A few other relievers who might be options are Jovani Moran, Tom Hackimer, who has been lights out this year and was recently promoted to AA and Jake Reed.
     
    Moving a few of these starters to the bullpen for a playoff run is not a permanent switch. I absolutely Brusdar starting games next season but if he can help us compete in the playoffs this season by pitching out of the pen I am all for it.
     
    With all of these options I would love too see a few of them get a shot before we start shipping out prospects to rent a reliever.
     
    With all of this said I am still absolutely hoping the Twins sign Kimbrel. Not just make a run but outbid everyone for his services. After next weekend it costs us nothing but money. Even if you have to go 3 years and almost 60 mil it is worth it. The Twins have very little salary on the books in the next 3 years. They can absolutely afford to pay Kimbrel 18 mil a year for the next 3 seasons and still make a run at Gerrit Cole in the offseason.
  5. Supfin99
    Talking about the Indians. When I looked at the opening lineup card I actually thought it was a post from a spring training game. That lineup is putrid. The great thing is the only person they are really missing is Lindor. Lindor is fantastic but he can’t make up for the rest of the poopoo platter that the Indians are going to trot out there on a daily basis. The Indians are going to be great at 2 spots with Lindor and Ramires and average at another with Santana. There is a good chance they will be below average to bad at the rest of the spots in the order. Even with that rotation, it’s hard to win every game 2-1. I wrote about this earlier in the spring, what happens if Lindor or Ramirez miss time or just simply aren’t as great as they’ve been the last 3 years? Then this lineup becomes one of the worst in baseball which is what we saw yesterday. Seriously Tyler Naquin batting 3rd? He wouldn’t even make the Twins roster. Lindor now has to wait for his ankle to heal then basically start spring training over again. He may miss the entire month of April. This division is absolutely for the taking. This isn’t an over reaction to 1 game. And don’t tell me they were missing Jason Kipnis also. Kipnis has been below average for 2 years.
  6. Supfin99
    Everyone assumes the Indians are a slam dunk to win the division again this year. But should they be runaway favorite? Looking at their roster I see a couple of huge advantages. The rotation might be the deepest in baseball, accumulating 5 plus War form 3 starters, 4 guys were above 3.9 WAR, which is where the top Twins starter, Berriios, resides. Their 5 started accounted for just over 20 WAR last season. The Indians also have the best left side of the infield in baseball with Lindor and Ramirez. Those 2 combined for just under 16 WAR. So just from rotation and left side of the infield the Indians are already at 36 WAR. That’s amazing and it already puts the Twins at a huge deficit..
     
    But let's look a little deeper and play the what if game. I'm not seeing really any regression from the rotation or from Lindor and Ramirez. They are all proven commodities and very talented. But word just came out that Lindor strained his calf and will most likely miss the beginning of the season. Maybe he misses a little time and even when he comes back it takes a little while to get his feet under him. Maybe this makes him a 6 WAR player.
     
    Lets look where the Twins will be in these same positions. Last year Berrios came in at 3.9 WAR. His peripheral stats were very similar to Clevinger who came in at 5.2 WAR. Clevinger stats were 200.0 IP 164 H 71 R 67 ER 67 BB 207 SO 13 W 8 L 1.16 WHIP 3.02 ERA. Berrios was 192.1 IP 159 H 83 R 82 ER 61 BB 202 SO 12 W 11 L 1.14 WHIP 3.84 ERA. As you can see IP, H, BB, SO and WHIP are all very similar. Their FIP was 3.52 to 3.84 and BABIP was .267 to .263. They were very similar pitchers. My point is that Jose is not very far from being a 5 WAR pitcher. Jake Odorizzi came in at 1.6 WAR last season. Jake seemed to struggle for most of the season and had career highs in walks and WHIP. But he still had less hits than innings pitched and and the 2nd best k/9 rate of his career. Jake could easily improve to a 3 WAR player which he has done twice in his career. Michael Pineda is a complete unknown coming off surgery and only pitched 12 innings last year. When healthy he has been a 1.5 to 2.5 WAR player. Lets say he stays moderately healthy and outs up a 2 WAR season. If Gibson pitches like he did last year he will produce a 4 WAR season again. That puts the Twins at 14 WAR thru the 1st 4 spots in the rotation. Now at 20 to 14 in WAR it doesn't seem so bad. This is also assuming full health form all 4 Cle starters. They have all been very healthy and consistent in their careers but that also means they have pitched a ton of innings over the last few years. Kluber has pitched nearly 1100 innings over the last 5 years and will turn 33 in April. Bauer has pitched nearly 900 innings over the last 5 years. Carrasco is at 850 innings over the last 5 years and will turn 32 before opening day. I'm not predicting injury or fall off but it happens. Even without it the Twins have too make up 6 WAR.
     
    So based on the assumptions above the Indians will get roughly 14 WAR from Lindor and Ramirez. What can the Twins get from Polanco and Sano? Jorge was a 1.5 WAR player for half a season. He slashed ..288/.345/.427 for a .772 OPS. I really think that is what he can do over a full season. Sano has had 2 season above 2 WAR in his career. Now if Miguel comes all the way back to what he did as a rookie we are looking at a 4 to 5 WAR player but I think that is too much to ask. But if he can be solid, draw some walks and punish mistakes a season like 2017 when he was .264/.352/.507 is possible with 30 to 35 homers. That brings in 2.5 WAR. That would leave the those 2 at 5.5 WAR combined. Still along way from the 14 that Lindor and Ramirez put up.
     
    Thru these spots I have the Twins trailing by roughly 15 wins. So where can they make it up? Well I believe the Twins are better at every other position. The Indians outfield right now is scheduled to be one of the worst in baseball. The 4 players predicted by MLB.com to get a majority of their starts are Leonys Martin, Tyler Naquin, Greg Allen and Jordan Ludlow. Huh? Who? Martin is a speed guy who turns 31 before the season starts and has played more than 95 games in a season just once in the last 4 years. The other 3 are complete unknowns who have no track record either in the majors or the minors of being anything more than league average. If they get 5 WAR combined from this group it will be a blessing. The Twins on the other hand could have one off the better outfields in baseball. In 2017 Buck played 140 games and put up a .727 OPS and still was a 5 win player. For Buck the only stat that matters in games played. If he can play 150 games it means he stayed healthy and produced at least enough at the plate to stay in the lineup. at 150 games played he is at least a 5 WAR guy because of his amazing defense. Kepler came in at 2.8 WAR last season and his OPS was only .727. Nearly everyone in and out of baseball believes that Kepler has more to offer. His peripheral stats all point toward to a better season. Cody Bellinger was worth 4+ WAR last season with an .814 OPS and 25 homers. Kepler is a better outfielder and in a good season at the plate can out up at least those numbers. Getting 4 WAR out of Max is very possible. Eddie put up a 3.6 WAR last season and that should be his career average. That puts the Twins at 12.5 WAR from the outfield and doesn't account for the fact that our 4th OFer, Jake Cave would most likely be the best option on the Indians. Our 5th OFer, Lamont Wade would almost assuredly start this season for the Indians.
     
    Just from the outfield the Twins have already cut the WAR deficit to the Indians in half. Now lets look at the rest off the lineup. The Indians projected starters at 1B, 2B, DH and C according to MLB.com are Jake Kipnis at 2B, Carlos Santana and Jake Bauers will share 1B and DH and the catching positions will be platoon between Roberto Perez and Kevin Plawecki. Like the OF there is a staggering lack of talent here for a contending team. The Indians traded Yan Gomes who had the 8th best OPS for a catchier last year at .762 and 7th best WAR of 2.6. Replacing him is the duo of Perez and Plawecki, neither of who has ever been a full time catcher. Perez career high for at bats in a season is 248 in 2017 and that produced an OPS of .664 and a WAR of .8. Plawecki high was 238 AB and an OPS of .685 and WAR of 1.3. Best case scenario has these 2 combining for 2 WAR and it could be a lot worse. Perez produced a negative .5 WAR last year in 179 AB. Carlos Santana produced the 2nd lowest WAR of his career last season at 1.7 but still had 24 homers and drew 110 walks so he has value. He could bounce back to be a 3 win player but also turns 33 in April. Jake Bauers is a young guy acquired from Tampa that really struggled with average and getting on base but showed some pop with 11 homers and 22 doubles in 323 AB during his rookie season. It seemed curious that Tampa would give up on Bauers so quickly but we have learned from our own experience with them that they tend to be right in cutting ties with young players. (See Young, Delmon) At second is Kipnis who I thought was on his way to being a star 5 years ago. He has not and his last 2 years have nearly identical OPS of .704 and .705 and a total WAR of less than 2. He turns 32 in April so a big bounce back is doubtful. The combined WAR of these 3 positions will be less than 7 and could be much worse. If Santana and Kipnis' last years are just the beginning of the decline they could both be less than league average. The catching platoon has the ability to also be less than average. Bauers may never learn to hit for enough average to be a regular.
     
    On the Twins side we will have Schoop at 2B, Cron and Cruz at 1B and DH and Castro and Garver splitting the catching. Schoop struggled in the Baltimore cess pool and then really struggled after the trade to Milwaukee. Schoop is just 1 year removed from being one of the best 2nd basemen is baseball in 2017 putting up a .841 OPS with 32 homers and 35 doubles for a WAR of 5.1. Even during last years struggles he still his 21 homers. His 2017 season may prove to be an outlier but a return to .270/.310/.470 seems very probable. Jed Lowrie produced an .801 OPS last year with 23 homers and that was worth 4.8 WAR. I think the possibility of Schoop producing at least 3 WAR is very strong with a good chance at 4 or higher. Cruz has been at least a 2.9 WAR player every year for the last 5 years. Now his stats were all down last year but that is from 3 excellent years prior and he still produced an OPS of .851 with 37 homers. Both of which would have led the Twins. He will turn 39 half way thru the season but unless he just falls off a cliff a 2 win season is probably the floor with a 3 win season much more likely. Cron had a career year last year with an OPS of .816 and 30 homers and a home run every 16 at bats. It may not be a complete outlier as his previous 2 season produced OPS of .792 and .742 with home run rates of 1 every 25 at bats and 1 every 21 at bats. The home run rate did improve this last year but it is part of a 3 year trend for him. He may not hit 30 again but with 500 AB 20 to 25 is definitely possible to go with an OPS in the upper 700's. That should put him right around 2 WAR again. Lastly the catcher spot where Castro is returning from a knee injury which is not good for a guy turning 32 at that position. Castro has been a .700 OPS guy for his career and is an excellent pitch framer. Garver is has his own injury concerns after suffering a concussion that ended his season. Garver was playing excellent and put up a .749 OPS during his rookie year. I think these 2 at least have the ability to be equal to the Indians catchers and put up a combined 2 WAR.
     
    Adding it up I think the best case for the Indians is they get 7 WAR from these 4 positions and for the Twins the worst case scenario they get 9 WAR. I say the Twins receive a total 4 additional WAR from these spots than the Indians. That leaves the Indians ahead by roughly 3 to 4 wins before we look at the bullpen. The Indians have a great 1 in Brad Hand but the rest of their bullpen has question marks after letting Andrew Miller and Cody Allen leave in FA. The Twins have Taylor Rogers who nearly matched Hand last year in value. The Indians will be relying on a 34 yr old Dan Otero who was terrible last year and 37 yr old Oliver Perez who was fantastic. The Twins will be relying on Trevor May who was brilliant in a small sample size but is now 2 full years removed from Tommy John surgery. Hildenberger and Reed both struggled but have definite chance for improvement. Reed has been a very good reliever for most of his career and is only 30. His speed on his FB was down last year so lets hope it was due to an injury. Hildenberger was terrible in the 2nd half last year with an ERA of 9 and a .325 average against. Prior to that in his 1st 90 innings his career ERA was in the low 3's. I like the Twins chances of having a better bullpen when all is said and done. Their bounce back candidates are much more likely due to history and age. There really isn't a regression candidate unlike the Indians who heavily relied upon Perez last year and will so this year.
     
    I know that WAR is not a perfect measuring too and it can differ across websites but I think this is interesting. I would have the Indians as about 3 wins better than the Twins right now. But almost all of the Indians WAR is tied up in just 6 players. If any one of them suffers a season ending injury that would kill their chances. Lindor is already off to a bad start with the calf injury and he is instrumental to their success. Most of their pitchers have thrown a ton of innings the last 5 years and 2 of them are in their 30's. The rest of their team will be average at best and could be down right bad. From the farm I believe the Twins are set up to be able too call on reinforcements if needed. There are many options to fill the rotation or bullpen including Stewart, Thorpe, Romero, Mejia, Littrell, Gonzalves. The Indians don't have this. Their top pitching prospect in Triston McKenzie and he could be dynamic but he has made just 16 starts above high A. The Twins also have lineup replacements that could be ready either by May or August in Gordon, Rooker, Wade, Raley and maybe even Kirilloff. The Indians have 1 OFer, Oscar Mercado who may be able to help. I know the Twins have a lot of What If questions that have to go right for them to win the division. But they aren't Hail Mary type of What Ifs. Kepler needs to take the next step, Berrios needs to continue his progression, Buck and Sano need to bounce back to just being decent again at the plate or in buck's case even below average will do. May continues to look like last year as he moves farther away from his surgery. Gibson and Rosario repeat their years. Schoop have a little bounce back. Polanco produces over a full year. Not all of these will happen but I definitely think enough could, since like I said we are only hoping for either a return to career averages ir some to take the logical next step.
  7. Supfin99
    I just read the article on here about punting the 2019 season. I don’t understand this narrative and get so frustrated by it. Money is not a cure all when it comes to building a team. I say this knowing I wrote an article a month ago where I discussed my frustration that the Twins didn’t spend more in the mid 2000’s to augment the team. But the difference was then you had guys like Mauer, Moreau, Hunter, Cuddyer. Santana and Nathan in their prime and they were among the best at their positions in baseball. I am all for spending money if it’s done strategically. Right now the Twins don’t know what they have. They need to find out. That means taking a breath and see if Sano and Buxton have figured things out. Can Kepler take the next step everyone believes is there? Can Berrios fine tune and become an ace. Can Gibson and Rosario prove that last year is the normal career average for them? What other young guy can step up in the rotation and bullpen like Berrios and Taylor Rogers? What can Polanco do over a full season? Can Schoop bounce back? These are all questions that will decide if the Twins win the central in 2019. (Which I believe they will) if some or most of these things don’t happen signing Keuchel or Kimbrel will not matter.
     
    I am all for spending the Pohlads money as they are one of the richest families in America. But I want it done strategically and not at he cost of giving someone else a chance. Spending the money this season when there are so many unanswered questions doesn’t seem to make sense. Also Keuchel seems like a repeat of past signings such as Nolasco and Santana. Santana is considered the best FA signing we have ever had and he had exactly 2 good years out of 4. Keuchel is probably better than those 2 but he has 4 straight years of declining peripherals and just turned 31. Is this the guy we want to be paying 5/100 or even 4/72 for? I want that spot in the rotation to go to a low risk high reward guy like Perez or even better to a young guy like Gonzalves, Thorpe, Romero, Stewart or Mejia. These guys need to be given a chance to see if they can be a valuable piece to the next great Twins team.
     
    Let this season play out. See how the still young guys perform. Do some of these questions get answered yes? I really like our chances of that. The great thing about Sano and Buxton is we don’t even need them to be the MVP caliber players we thought they were going to be when they were dominating the minors. If Buck hits .225 with a .650 OPS, he still is a 5 WAR player due to his all world defense. Sano can be 80% of what he was as a rookie and still be very valuable. The strike outs are always going to be there but get back to showing some patience, having some semblance of a plan at the plate. This will lead to lots of walks and 30 plus homers. Like I said earlier everyone expects Kepler to have another level. His strikeout and walk percentages are great as his line drive rate and batted balls speed. Now we just need his actual counting stats to match his peripheral stats. If Odorizzi can pitch a little closer to his career averages the Twins will have 3 above average pitchers in the rotation with a wild card in Pineda. They will have plenty of options at Rochester to cover for injuries and disappointments. The lineup is already deeper than any I’ve seen us field in years.
     
    If the year goes well and we get a few positive answers then next year is when you spend the money. Resign Gibson if he has another year like 2018. At least qualify him so you get the draft pick. Go out and offer Gerrit Cole 6/210 to lead your rotation. If Romero isn’t your stud closer go out and get one. Like I said I’m all for spending money. Just do it at the right time and place.
     
    Quick side note, spending money is always the quick route most fans want to see done. It goes hand in hand with making trades to immediately improve the team even if it robs the future. I was looking back at one of my posts from last year regarding a Nick Nelson article about trading for Realmuto. I said at the time I thought it would be a huge mistake. The offer proposed was Kirilloff, Graterol and another top 10-15 prospect. Let’s say that 3rd prospect was say Ryan Jeffers because Miami wanted a catcher, yes I know it would show up as a PTBNL until he was able to be traded. Would anyone think that was a good trade for us now? Giving up our best pitching prospect, a top 15 prospect in all of baseball and another top 10 Twins prospect for 2 season of Realmuto. Would a catcher make us a favorite to win the WS this year? Or even to win the Central? No and very doubtful would be the answers. We would also be getting lambasted by the entire industry for making that trade. I’m not ripping on Nick, him and Seth are my 2 favorite writers on Twins Daily. I’m just saying it gets easy to go for the Get rich Quick scheme versus taking your time.
  8. Supfin99
    In Part one we covered to injuries that had a massive affect on this era of Twins teams. I didn't even get into the concussions that derailed both Morneau's and Mauers careers.
     
    In Part 2 we will cover what I consider personnel decisions that range from bad to ridiculous to borderline criminal. The first one I want to cover is the one I alluded to when discussing Jason Kubel's injury. Kubel was a very solid outfielder before the injury, even playing some centerfield. His range after the injury was greatly reduced.
    In looking for better production in LF the Twins made a bad trade after the 2007 season. The Twins sent Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett to Tampa Bay for Delmon Young and Brendon Harris. Delmon was famously the number 1 overall pick in 2003 and was considered the top prospect in baseball for several seasons. In his first full season he had slashed .290/.336/.405 with 21 doubles and 12 homers in roughly 3 quarters of a season. He finished 2nd in the ROY voting. Delmon would go on to have 1 really good and 2 below average season for the Twins while playing horrendous defense in LF. He would be traded during the 2011 season. Harris would have 2 nondescript seasons for the Twins. Garza and Bartlet would go to Tampa Bay and were huge reasons why the Rays went to the World Series in 2008. Before being traded Bartlet had hit .309/.367/.393 and .265/.339/.361 in his previous 2 seasons for the Twins. He had 3 seasons of team control left and was only 27 at the time the trade. Bartlet would hit .286/.329/.361 and .320/.389/.490 for the Rays in the next 2 seasons while garnering MVP votes in 2008 and making the All Star team in 2009. Garza was 24 at the time of the trade and entering his 1st full season 5 seasons of team control remaining. Garza had been solid for the Twins when called up during 2008 season with an ERA+ of 117 and an FIP of 4.17. He definitely showed promise. Over the next 4 season from 2008 to 2011 for the Rays and then the Cubs after being traded he would average 200 innings per year and had ERA+ of 119, 110, 100 and 118. He was absolutely the type of above average innings eater that the Twins craved during these years. To add a little salt to the wound Garza was traded for Chris Archer among others when he was sent to the Cubs after the 2010 season.
     
    The next decision is still hard for me to think about. David Ortiz was non tendered after the 2002 season. We all know what Big Papa went on to a HOF career for the Red Sox leading them to 3 World Series titles. This is not a case of 20/20 rear view vision. The release of Ortiz made no sense at the time. He had struggled to stay healthy at times, wasn't in the greatest shape and clashed with TK. But there was no reason to non tender him. In his final year for the Twins Ortiz had hit .272/.339/.500 with 32 doubles and 20 homers. His OPS was .839 and OPS+ was 120. He was just 26 years old. He was one of the few Twins that showed plus power. It isn't like the Twins had some huge prospect they needed to make room for. Mathew LeCroy received most of the DH at bats in 2003. He had a respectable .832 OPS. But it doesn't mean there wasn't at least room for a platoon with Ortiz batting against righties and LeCroy vs lefties. The Twins would struggle to get production from the DH position for the next decade while Ortiz was crushing for the Red Sox. The Twins trotted out luminaries as Jose Offerman, Rondell White and Jason Tyner as designate hitters during this time. In 2006 while White was putting up a .641 OPS, Ortiz was hitting 54 homers and knocking in 137 RBI. Instead of non tendering Ortiz you should have been signing him to an extension.
     
    The 2006 batting order could have been Luis Castillo 2B, .358 OBP. Jason Bartlett SS .367 OBP, Joe Mauer C .936 OPS .429 OBP, David Ortiz 1.049 OPS 54 HR, Justin Morneau 1B .936 OPS 34 HR, Torii Hunter .826 OPS 31 HR, Jason Kubel LF .800 OPS 25 HR (Projected) Michael Cuddyer .867 OPS 24 HR, Nick Punto 3B .352 OBP
     
    Lack of reasonable extensions and filling the bottom parts of the roster. Terry Ryan hated spending the Pohlads money. I truly believe he did this because he looked it as badge of honor that the Twins could compete with a budget that often times was less than half of the big boys. I liked this fact too. I'm not advocating doubling the payroll during this period, But a well placed additional 10 to 15 million dollars per season could have done wonders. Ryan was very leery to go past 4 years for contacts even for his best players. Santana, Hunter, Mauer and Morneau all signed similar 4 year deals that contained no options. Meanwhile the rest of the industry was signing guys to 6 and sometimes even longer deals. If Santana had been offered a 6 year deal at market value there is a strong chance he would have taken it. This would have you allowed to have him for 2 to 3 more years of his prime. Same for Torii Hunter. You would have had Mauer signed thru 2012 originally and not been forced to sign him to a monster extension after his incredible 2009 season. I know small market teams cannot afford to get stuck in long expensive contracts but all 4 of these guys were young when they signed there 1st big contracts but already had proven track records of excellent production. They were all worth the risk of longer extensions. A longer contract can have good and bad risks. Sometimes the market grows so quickly that a contract is outdated by the time it is up. Sometimes it turns out like Mike Hampton. In the case of Mauer, the Twins could actually have saved millions of dollars by signing him to a longer more expensive extension the 1st time. By the time Mauer would have been a free agent after say a 6 year contract he would have already moved to first base. His next contract would have paled in comparison to the 8 year deal he signed in 2009. Longer contracts would have allowed the Twins to keep Santana's and Hunter's services farther into their primes.
     
    It was always frustrating to see the Twins fill out the rosters with the fillers all making near the league minimum or signing hope and a prayer types. Too many rejects like the cast covered earlier that played DH, plus all the middle infielders, relief pitchers and 5th starters that they brought in. If they would have sent just a little money on a few free agents they could have extended the quality of their lineup, bullpen and/or rotation.
     
    With better decision making and injury luck I really believe this era of Twins could have been a dynasty that won multiple championships. The top end talent was just so good. In Santana, Nathan, Mauer, Morneau and Hunter they had 5 of the best 20 players in baseball all in their prime at the same time. With better decisions and luck you could have added Kubel, Liriano and Ortiz to that list. No team in baseball could have matched a group of high end talent like that. A lineup that boasts Mauer, Morneau, Hunter, Ortiz, Cuddyer and Kubel reads like an all star game. This would have been the best lineup in the majors even if you had Seth playing SS, Arron at 3B and Nick at 2nd. A rotation led by Santana and Liriano would have been favored in any series against any opponent during the playoffs in this time. The rest of the rotation spots would have been filled by pitchers such as Brad Radke, Matt Garza, Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, Carlos Silva and Nick Blackburn during different years.
     
    Just imagine all the 10 year, 20 year and 25 year anniversaries we could celebrate for championships in 2004, 2006, 2007 and 2010. Oh what could have been.
  9. Supfin99
    This is probably the most sustained successful era of any Twins team. This time period of the Twins made more playoff appearances and won more division titles, partly due to the expanded playoffs. The 1965 to 1970 Twins would have made the playoffs in 5 out of 6 years with a similar play-off format. These Twins teams won 6 division titles and made 7 trips to the playoffs in 9 years. But, as we know in all of those playoff years they made it to the ALCS just once and never to the World Series.
    This team had amazing top end talent. They had arguably the best pitcher in baseball in Johan Santana from 2004 to 2008. Joe Nathan was considered by most to be the 2nd best reliever in the game during this stretch behind the great Mariano Rivera. They had the best overall catcher in the game, the best hitting catcher in the game and perennial MVP candidate in Joe Mauer. They had one of the best first basemen who could do everything. Justin played solid first base, could hit for average and power plus drew 60 to 70 walks a year. Their centerfielder was also one of the best in the game. Torii Hunter was a human highlight reel on defense and averaged 25 homers a season from 2002 thru his final season with the Twins in 2007. They also had a very solid RFer in Michael Cuddyer who had 3 years of OPS+ over 120 during this stretch The bullpen had solid members during these years with guys like Jesse Crain, Juan Rincon, Pat Neshek, Matt Guerier, JC Romero and others. The rotation was augmented by a Brad Radke on the back stretch of his career as well as the early years of high draft picks Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey and Matt Garza.
     
    So what happened? How could a team with 5 of the absolute best players in baseball at their respective positions and some decent complement pieces never even make a World Series let alone win one? There are 2 reasons why. This team was doomed by injuries and some very bad personnel decisions.
     
    Let's start with the injuries. The biggest one was when Francisco Liriano blew out his elbow in Aug of 2006. Liriano was having an amazing season before he was injured. 12-3, 2.16 ERA, only 6.6 hits and 2.4 walks per 9 for a WHIP of 1. He was fanning 10.7 per 9 innings. He was absolutely dominant including winning a showdown with the Houston Astros and Roger Clemens on national TV. On June 7th the Twins were 25-33. Liriano had just been put into the starting rotation a few weeks earlier. They than proceeded to go 25-2 over the next month with Liriano and Santana leading the way. Twins were on their way to winning 96 games this year. This team absolutely wins the World Series over Detroit or St Louis that season if Liriano stays healthy. Liriano would have been able to combine with Santana for a dynamic one two punch for the next several seasons. They would have led the rotation that the Twins could have rounded out with the likes of Baker and Garza. Liriano also could have taken over Santana's place as ace once Santana started to decline.
     
    The second big injury happened a few years before this but definitely not only impacted the 2006 season but this entire era as well as some of the personnel decisions that doomed these teams. A lot of people forget or don't realize how good Jason Kubel was as a minor leaguer. His minor league stats are on par with Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau. Jason was a 12th rd pick by the Twins in 2000 out of high school. In his 1st full season at Low A Quad Cities he slashed .321/.380/.521 with 26 doubles and 14 homers and didn't turn 20 until the season was almost half over. He had nearly as many walks (41) as strikeouts (48). He really busted out in 2004. At AA New Britain he hit .377/.453/.667 for an OPS of 1.119. He was just as good when promoted to AAA Rochester hitting .343/.398/.560. His AAA power stats projected to 50 doubles and 29 homers over a full season. He only struck out 10.7% of the time and walked .8.9% of the time. He was also a very good athlete stealing 16 bases in those 90 games. In the Arizona Fall League that year Kubel suffered a horrific knee injury during a collision while chasing a pop up. Kubel would miss all of 2005. Kubes went on to have a solid career peaking in 2009 with 28 homers and a .907 OPS. His minor league career showed that his best season may have been closer to his prime averages instead of a borderline outlier season. The 2006 team gave 677 at bats to Lew Ford, Jason Tyner and Shannon Stewart as outfielders. A healthy 24 year old Kubel in his 2nd full season would have dwarfed there stats while also playing a solid left field. The Twins would struggle to get production from LF for the next several season including using a much less athletic Kubel there. This injury not only affected Twins teams in 2005 thru 2008 but it also led them to make a trade to fill the void in LF. I will cover this trade along with a few other disastrous personnel decisions in part 2.
    There is no doubt in my mind that the 2006 Twins would have been World Champs if Liriano and Kubel don't get injured. They also would have been set up to contend for additional championships in subsequent years with a healthy and dynamic Kubel and Liriano.
  10. Supfin99
    Going into the offseason I thought that signing Matt Adams would be a perfect pairing with Tyler Austin. Then we claimed C.J. Cron, which I didn’t think made a ton of sense when I read he was also right handed. The more I looked at it I am fine with the pick up. Cron is a pretty low risk addition and if he comes even close to matching last years production he will be well worth the 4.8 mil. But it got me to thinking about how you parcel up playing time. You now have 2 RH bats for 1B and DH and no lefty to platoon with them. Twins also have a solid 4th OF in Jake Cave who showed signs last year that he can be an above average major leaguer. I started looking at different playing time options and I really liked what it looked like if you played Max Kepler some at 1B. If you give Max 60 starts at 1B it opens up those starts in right for Cave. Penciling in 20 starts in left and center to give Eddie and Byron some off days puts Cave at 100 starts for the season and probably 450 at bats. That is a solid amount of playing time to see if he can improve on his rookie year. I still believe that Kepler has a gear we haven’t seen yet in the majors. I keep wait9ng for a season like he had at Chattanooga. He is very athletic and has the ability to be an outstanding first basemen. This leaves 264 starts at 1B and DH to divvy up. If Cron is a better fielder than Austin then you can give all 102 remaining starts at 1B to Cron. The DH at bats will de divided up based on a couple of things. 1st is how many starts at 3B you can count on Sano for. If he is truly getting in as good as shape as early reports indicate maybe we can get 120 starts at 3B from Miguel. That would be ideal. Give Sano another 20 starts at DH. That leaves 142 starts at DH. I would still like to give Tyler Austin a chance to show his power can play. I know he has contact issues but he looks like a guy that could hit 30 HR a year with playing time. If you have home 100 starts at DH you would still have 40 starts to give Cron. At the end of the season you would still have what should be your starters all getting 140 plus starts. Plus you would be able to get 2 intruiging young players (Cave and Austin) plenty of opportunity with 100 starts each. With this additional time we may find out that Cave is really meant to be a bench guy that makes spot starts, Austin can only start 30 to 40 times a year against lefty’s and Cron is the next LoMo. If that is the case, later this year or next you can plug Rooker, Raley and potentially Kirillof into these spots. Kirillof is the other reason I think the Twins should find out now if Max can play a solid 1B.
  11. Supfin99
    I will start this by admitting I have changed my tune on this topic a little bit. At the start of the offseason I really wanted the Twins to sign 2 arms for the bullpen. My top 2 choices were Joe Kelly and Joakim Soria. I thought Kelly looked about as dominant as could be in playoffs last year. So yesterday when Kelly signed with the Dodgers for 3/25 at first I was extremely disappointed. To me that didn't seem like outrageous money. Than I started reading more and the reviews weren't that positive of the deal. Plus Kelly is a SoCal boy and wee would have had to over pay the Dodgers by a good amount to get him. Once I got over my initial disappointment I looked at remaining options, both free agents and internal. The way the top off the bullpen sets up now is Trevor May, Taylor Rogers, Addison Reed and Trevor Hildenberger as the top 4. May showed dynamic stuff pitching at the end of last year and is now 2 years removed from Tommy John surgery. I believe he is primed for a big year. Rogers was about as good as can be last year and am hopeful he can replicate it this year. Reed hopefully was injured for large part of the season and is now healthy. If he can back to his career averages before last year it would be a huge upgrade. Hildenberger struggled for really the first time in his career after the all star break. He needs to get back to where he was. This leaves 3 to 4 spots in the bullpen. The Star Tribune wrote an interesting article about moving Fernando Romero to the bullpen. If Romero really can't develop a 3rd pitch, his fastball slider combo would be devastating as either a closer or a setup man. If you pencil Romero in the pen you now are down to 2 or 3 spots.
     
    If you look at internal options for these spots there you have Gabriel Moya, Tyler Duffy and Chase Dejong who pitched with the team last year. You have the Rochester guys including John Curtis and Jake Reed. Lastly you have the starters who lose the battle for the 5th position among Kohl Stewart, Adalberto Mejia and Zach Littrell.
     
    Moya seemed to figure things out at the major league level as the season went along. Duffy and DeJong both had their moments. I really believe it is time for the Twins to find out what they have in Curtiss and Reed. They both have accomplished all they can at Rochester. They need a shot to see if their numbers can translate to Minneapolis. The starters who miss out on 5th spot are a really interesting area. Stewart actually had more success than I thought he would as a starter at the end of last season. For several years I have wondered how his stuff would play if he only had to pitch an inning or 2 at a time out of the pen. If he gets the usual 2 to 3 mile velocity bump he is now looking at a FB that could consistently reach 97 as well as his 1 seamer that can sink and a potential wipe out slider. That is a repertoire that could be dynamic out of the pen. Mejia is another option who could be outstanding out of the pen in smaller outings.
     
    So you have the 4 guys at the top who are pretty much written in ink. To fill the other 3 to 4 spots you have 8 options. All 8 of these options have major league experience. Some such as Romero and Stewart could have tremendous upside.
     
    Derek Falvey has already stated that he wants to look at internal options. He didn't specifically mention the bullpen for this strategy but I really hope they do. I want to see what some of these guys can do before we lose them.
  12. Supfin99
    On May 24th the Twins dropped to 11-34 after a 7-4 loss to the Royals. At that point they were the worst team in baseball by a wide margin. This was their lineup and averages after that day.
     
    Núñez 2B 5 0 1 0 0 1 17 .303 .338 .447
    Mauer 1B 4 0 1 1 1 1 21 .270 .381 .377
    Sanó DH 5 0 0 0 0 3 17 .219 .321 .394
    Plouffe 3B 4 0 0 0 0 2 16 .252 .275 .383
    Grossman LF 3 1 0 0 1 1 18 .400 .500 .733
    Arcia RF 3 2 2 0 0 1 12 .233 .313 .395
    Escobar SS 4 0 3 1 0 0 14 .267 .300 .324
    Centeno C 3 0 0 0 0 1 10 .269 .296 .462
     
    This was their lineup and averages after last nights game.
     
    Dozier 2B 5 3 2 3 1 1 20 .261 .339 .499
    Mauer 1B 5 2 4 4 1 0 29 .277 .377 .411
    Kepler RF 4 2 2 2 1 0 19 .263 .347 .560
    Sanó DH 3 0 0 0 2 2 29 .238 .332 .443
    Rosario CF 5 1 3 3 0 0 25 .259 .280 .420
    Escobar SS 5 0 1 1 0 0 14 .270 .293 .404
    Polanco 3B 3 1 1 0 1 0 15 .298 .370 .574
    Centeno C 4 1 1 0 1 1 23 .257 .296 .376
    D. Santana LF 5 3 1 0 0 0 14 .260 .301 .362
     
    Since that game in May when the Twins bottomed out the Twins are 32-30. There are obvious reasons as to why they have played so much better. We replaced Arcia with Kepler and that has been a huge upgrade. Mauer, Dozier, Rosario, Suzuki, Escobar and even Sano have all raised their OPS by at least 50 points since then. We have gotten slightly better pitching especially from Santana. We replaced the black hole of Jepsen as the closer with the quiet consistency of Kinzler.
     
    I hear a lot of talk about next year. That there is no way that the Twins can go from the 70 wins they are probably going to win in 2016 to 85 in 2017. Your view on that probably depends on which 2016 version is closer to the real Twins team. Is it the team that got off to a horrendous start? Couldn't get a clutch hit to save it's life. If they pitched well they couldn't hit, if they hit they couldn't pitch. If they somehow got to the late innings with a lead the bullpen imploded. I have been a Twins fan for 30 years and can never remember a start to the season like this one. Or are they the team that has played pretty decent baseball for the last 2 months. If you extrapolated their 2 games over .500 over the whole season they would be tied with Seattle and 4.5 games out of the wild card on pace for 83 wins. If the Twins continue to play solid baseball for the final 2 months they will finish with around 72 wins. That will mean they finished 3 quarters of the season with a 61-55 record. I am personally an eternal optimist when it comes to Minnesota sports and that colors my opinions some times. But if they can erase a truly horrific 1st quarter with a very solid 3 quarters I am going to put more faith on the bigger sample size.
     
    There are obviously moves that need to take place for the Twin to contend next year but there is definite hope. Especially when you look at some of the wins over the last month. Taking 3 out of 4 at Texas who had best record in MAerican league at time. Going 5-5 on a 10 game road trip to Cleveland, Detroit and Boston, 3 of the top 5 teams in the American league. Just pummeling Cleveland and going for a franchise 1st 4 game sweep in Cleveland today. Lot of reasons to think the Twins could contend next year.
  13. Supfin99

    Tanking

    By Supfin99,

    This has become a huge issue, especially with Buster Olney. First let me say that I love reading Olney's stuff, he's one of my favorite baseball writers. Plus he's a huge Vikings fan to boot. But I really disagree with him on this. As a 30 plus year Twins fan I've seen a lot if bad baseball played by my favorite team. The 4 straight years that the Twins lost 90 plus games before breaking the streak last year were not fun. But I'm the fan that wants to see my team win championships, not try to finish above .500. In those 4 years I had no interest in bringing in the kind of guys that Buster always talks about. Major leaguers with 4 to 8 years of experience that will cost a few million a season and will slightly improve your team. I don't care if the Twins win 66 or 72 games a year. If they are bad just be bad. I live in Dallas but I grew up in Minnesota. I am a Vikings season ticket holder and come home to Minnesota numerous times of the year. I see several Twins games a year at Target Field and watch most games on iPad. When I come to a game in Aug or Sept I would much rather watch Vargas or Rosario hit then some random veteran who might be slightly better at that moment. I don't care about spending or saving the Pohkads money. I just want to see the franchise moving forward. Sometimes moving forward means taking a few steps back. I use the T-Wolves as an example. A few years ago when Love was still here they went out and signed a couple of veterans like Kevin Martin and resigned Buddinger and Pekovic. I wasn't really excited by that team because to me it looked like a team that was going be a 6 seed at best. That means a solid winning team but defeats in the 1st round every year. That's not what I want. All of last year I was more excited by that Wolves team than any of the Love led versions even though they only won 16 games. We finally had a piece in Wiggins that could lead a team to a championship and by being really bad last year we got the #1 overall pick which turned out to be Towns. Now Towns looks like an absolute beast and we have 2 franchise cornerstones. I can absolutely see Towns and Wiggins leading the T-WOLVES to a championship. If we had used Buster's logic we would have signed a couple of veterans so that we could have won 29 games instead of 16. Still no where near the playoffs and we'd have Stanley Johnson instead of Towns. Maybe I'm looking at this the wrong way but I want championships not playoff appearances. If that means my favorite teams need to be a little worse in down years so they can be a little better in up years, I'll take that every time.
  14. Supfin99
    So I posted this 3 years ago almost to the day. It’s funny to look at some of these theses names and see how wrong I was. But also how some remain true. Still waiting on Buck and Sano to figure it out. Man was I wrong about the bullpen as None of the arms I listed made it except for Rogers. I think we may have a few of the secondary stars in Rosario, Polanco and Kepler. I think Berrios is a 2 and Gibson is a solid 3. Still need another # 2 caliber pitcher ( please be Graterol or Romero) or Berrios to develop into a true ace.
     
    The things that needs to happen for the Twins to win a title in the next few years. I break it down into 4 points.
     
    1). Sano and Buxton need to emulate the Army and be all they can be.
    Both these guys have been at the top of prospect rankings for years. If the Twins are going to win a championship or 2 they have to become the studs they have the talent to be. For Sano this means becoming a prodigious power hitter. Sano needs to become a guy that regularly hits 35 homers and 35 doubles a year. I'm not saying he needs to be like Miggy and bat .330 also. We know he is going to strike out a lot but we will take that as long as we get the power and the patience. Buxton needs to become one of the best CFers in baseball. We know Buck has the tools to be the best defensive center fielder from day one. The bat needs to develop also. He needs to be a .300 hitter with some power and patience. A .300/.350/.475 with 15 homers, 50 steals and 100 plus runs every year. They need to be our Mauer and Morneau, potential MVP candidates year in and year out.
     
    2) They need 7 points or less out of top 3 starters in rotation.
    I assign points to a starter according to their status as a number 1, 2 or 3 starter. Lower the point the better. The traditional way is for this to have a 1, a 2 and a 3. A true ace or number 1 starter, a very good number 2 and a solid number 3. I think teams like the Royals have shown that you can get by without an ace if you have several 2's and 3's. So out of the group of Gibson, Duffy, Berrios, Gonsalves, Stewart and Thorpe we need to get a true number 1 or at least a couple of 2's. I am a big fan of Kyle Gibson and believe he is already a 3 with a chance to go to a 2 if the SO ratio from the end of last season continues in 2016. I also believe Berrios will be a at least a 3 with a very good chance of being a 2 and at certain times to look like a 1. We need 1 more guy to hit the level of a number 2 starter. I still like Stewart's chances and I'm intrigued by Gonsalves, I really am hoping for Thorpe. If he can recover from TJ surgery and continue on the path he started on he may be able to still reach that level.
     
    3). 3 bullpen pieces need to become lights out.
    In my post from last week I talked about not wanting to sign overpriced veteran arms. This is the reason why. We need these guys to have room to pitch in the majors. There is a large talented group of bullpen arms who are close to being ready for the big leagues. Burdi, Reed, Chargois, Tonkin, Meyer, Perterson, and a few others from the right side and Melotakis, Rogers, Booser from the left. 3 of these guys need to become lights out shut down relievers. My hope would be that the 3 ends up being Burdi, Melotakis and Chargois. 2 righties and a lefty that all throw 97 plus. A top 5 out of the pen with closer Perkins, May the set up man and then these 3 to pitch the 6th, 7th and eighth looks outstanding.
     
    4). 2 additional secondary stars need to develop out of remaining cast
    You can't win with 2 stars and then nothing else in your lineup. You have to have depth so they don't just pitch around Buck and Sano. There is a plenty of potential names. Rosario, Kepler, Walker III, Park, Gordon, Polanco and others. We have Plouffe and Dozier already in place. I don't think they're stars but are very solid players but will they still be here in 3 years? Can Rosario build on his rookie year and keep his power stats while developing better patience? If he can truly become an annual 5 by 15 player (homers, triples, doubles, steals and assists) then he doesn't need to get on base at a .330 clip but at least an OBP of .300 is needed. Can Kepler become a big leaguer with stats that approach what he did last year for Chatanooga? Can Gordon become a SS that can hit .300/.350/.400 while playing good defense? Can Park's power translate to MLB and annually hit 25+ homers? We need at least 2 of these guys to develop into borderline all stars.
     
    SO that is a lot of good things that need to happen to win a World Series. The nice thing is there are lot of options. In the BP there are 8 or 9 guys that have potential and you just need 3. There are numerous good starting pitchers in the system and we only need 1 or 2 to hit the high end of their potential spectrum. There are quite a few position players who have performed at a very high level in the minors and we just need a coupe to continue that production. I know there is a very high failure rate with prospects, that is why you need to have so many options. I believe there is enough pieces currently in our system for a few of them to become these type of players. If we can roll out in 2018 with 2 potential MVP candidates in Sano and Buxton, a top 3 in the rotation of Number 1 Berrios, Number 2 Thorpe, Number 3 Gibson, borderline all stars in Rosario, Kepler and Gibson and lights out bullpen the Twins will win a World Series in the near future.
  15. Supfin99
    There has been a lot of angst this offseason about the Twins not signing an experienced bullpen arm or two. I feel like January 2014 all over again. Everyone was saying we needed to sign some starting pitching. In back to back years we have signed Nolasco and Santana. If you go by salary our rotation would be Santana, Hughes, Nolasco, Milone and Gibson. If you went by actually trying to win you would probably go Hughes, Santana, Gibson, Duffy and Berrios. The 1st rotation would cost around 40 Million this year. The 2nd would cost less than 25 Million. Does anyone really want Nolasco and Milone in the rotation over Duffy and Berrios? Looking at 2017 would anyone want Nolasco, Milone and Santana over Duffy, Berrios and Stewart or Gonzalves?
     
    I feel like it is the same way with bullpen arms now this season. Have we learned nothing? Everyone is clamoring for us to hand out bloated contracts to the likes of Bastardo and O'Day. I don't care about saving or spending the Pohlads money. I want the Twins to have the best team on the field. Having a guy like Bastardo might have meant a slight improvement for the bullpen for April and May. But I don't want to have any of those guys holding spots and keeping young guys from coming up. There is so much bullpen talent that is very close to being ready. From the right side you have Tonkin, Presley, Burdi, Reed, Chargois, Peterson and Paulson who have all pitched in AA already. From the left side you have Rogers, Darnel, Melotakis and Booser. Almost everyone of these guys hits 95 or higher on the gun. The 2 guys that don't are excellent against lefties. In April the bullpen I'd like to see is Perkins, May, Jepsen, Fien, Tonkin, Rogers and Nolasco. Come June 1st I would love for it to be Perkins, May, Jepsen, Burdi, Tonkin, Melotakis and Rogers. That is a young but extremely talented and hard throwing bullpen that can compete with Kansas City. Plus it would cost slightly more than Darren O'Day is making this season.
  16. Supfin99
    This has been a strange year for the Twins. I don't know if most realize it but take a couple of horrendous stretches out that amount to about 3 weeks of games and the Twins are 8 games over .500. The Twins had a 10 game losing streak and another where they lost 11 out of 12. So which team are they closer to be being? The one that was gawd-awful for 3 weeks or the one that has been pretty decent about 85% of the time? If a hitter was batting .290 for the season but that was done by batting .250 for 130 games and a ridiculous hot stretch of hitting .500 for a month I know how guys like Aaron Gleeman would classify him. That he is a .250 hitter that had a very lucky stretch. So doesn't the reverse work for the Twins? What do you put more faith in? 140 games of a season where the Twins play at or above .500 or a horrendous and unlucky 22 games? Now I will qualify this by saying that I am not even sure how the Twins have managed to post a winnung record for most of the games playes this year. Their starting pitching has been for the most part, abysmal. Even during this homer binge they hitting with RISP has been brutal, as it has been all season. The clutch hitting has been the most frustrating part of the team for me this year. I expected the starting staff to be mediocre at best so it isn't a surprise. I actually thought the lineup would be pretty decent. But I don't even want to know how many times we have starnded a runner at 3rd with less than 2 outs or had the first 2 hitters get on and then to now move as the next 3 go K, pop up, K. The 2 things they have been really good at is the bullpen has been outstanding and the up the middle defense. Dozier and Floriman are probably the best combo defensively in the majors, which is shocking to write and Hicks for all his struggles made a lot of amazing plays. So which version is closer to the truth?
  17. Supfin99

    Sano's first contract

    By Supfin99,

    I wrote this article in June right after Sano was promoted to AA. Even though I clearly state that this was a conversation for next March IF Sano did well in AA, it was still ridiculed by a few short sighters. I wanted to repost and see what everyone thinks now.
     
     
    "Now that Sano is in New Britain I thought we start speculating on how the Twins should handle him. I would love to see the Twins be proactive with him like the Rays were with Longoria. I think you go this agent next Spring and offer something like this.
     
    8 years 40 Million
    3 Million signing bonus up front
    Year 1 500K
    Year 2 500K
    Year 3 1 Mil
    Year 4 3 Mil
    Year 5 5 Mil
    Year 6 7 Mil
    Year 7 9 Mil
    Year 8 11 Mil
     
    4 option s totaling 55 Mil, with the annual breakdown being 12, 13, 15 and 15 Mil.
    This works for both sides. The Twins get a very team friendly contract that keep Sano here for at least 8 years and buys out 2 FA seasons. Sano gets 3 mil up front and 40 mil guaranteed. This way Sano can start next season at 3rd and not wait until June. The option years might be tough for the agent to swallow but I would push for them. What does everyone think?"
  18. Supfin99
    Any update on any of these 3? I am starting to get worried about Bard especially. In over a year as a professional he has thrown 7 innings. I hope that Wimmers can follow the Gibson recovery plan and can get back on the mound for a hand full of starts this year and then go to the AZL.
  19. Supfin99
    I wasn't upset last week when Buxton wasn't promoted because I thought it made sense. The Kernels hadn't clinched until the middle of the week and then when they did it was too late. Fort Myers was off all weekend for the Florida St All Star Game. Why would you promote somebody so they could sit around all weekend. Then when you had to wait till Monday you might as well as let him play in the all star game. I kept waiting all day yesterday to hear news about the promotion. Still waiting. There is no reason now for Buxton to still be in CR. He is leading or second in the Midwest in most offensive categories. I usually give Terry the benefit of the doubt and I try not to be a shrieking violet like too many on this website but I really think they are being too conservative here. Buxton, Hicks, Williams and Polanco all should be on their way to Fort Myers right now. The Kernels now have 4 outfielders for 3 spots in Walker, Williams, Buxton and Kepler. Well played Twins, well played.
  20. Supfin99
    Now that Sano is in New Britain I thought we start speculating on how the Twins should handle him. I would love to see the Twins be proactive with him like the Rays were with Longoria. I think you go this agent next Spring and offer something like this.
     
    8 years 40 Million
    3 Million signing bonus up front
    Year 1 500K
    Year 2 500K
    Year 3 1 Mil
    Year 4 3 Mil
    Year 5 5 Mil
    Year 6 7 Mil
    Year 7 9 Mil
    Year 8 11 Mil
     
    4 option s totaling 55 Mil, with the annual breakdown being 12, 13, 15 and 15 Mil.
    This works for both sides. The Twins get a very team friendly contract that keep Sano here for at least 8 years and buys out 2 FA seasons. Sano gets 3 mil up front and 40 mil guaranteed. This way Sano can start next season at 3rd and not wait until June. The option years might be tough for the agent to swallow but I would push for them. What does everyone think?
  21. Supfin99
    First we need to decide who will drop off the list after this season. Hicks and Gibson are locks to lose their prospect status. I also think Arcia will play enough games this year for the Twins to no longer be a prospect. So that opens 3 spots on the top 10. I also needed to account for a player or 2 not playing wel and dropping (see Benson, Joe). Speaking of Benson, I also think he is going to spend a large chunk of the season at Target Field an no longer be considered a prospect. So I needed to generate a list of possibles that could make the jump to top 10. Let's look at what I consider the locks for next years top 10. Sano, Buxton, Rosario, Meyer, Kepler, and Berrios. I think Trevor May will pitch very well for New Britain and also make the list. So 3 spots are available and 1 is a lock to goto the #4 pick in the draft in June. I am going to go on record right now and say that I want Sean Manaea to be the pick.
     
    The Twins have done a nice job of adding to the pitching prospect with last years draft and the 2 trades this winter. When you look at Meyer, May, Berrios and even some of the guys who aren't as high like Summers, Hermsen, Hauser, Salcedo, Boyd and Bard they all have one thing in common, they are right handed. In the system we have one southpaw that might get a chance to start and it is Melotakis. Most people would agree that he is almost assuredly going to wind up in the bullpen. Adding a top lefty like Manaea to the list really starts to round it out.
     
    So now we have 2 spots left. I wanted to pair the list down to 4 or 5 guys that could do it. I am looking at guys who were just out of the top 10 this year or had the talent and ability to make a big jump. Position players that I came up with were, Nate Roberts, Jorge Polanco, Adam Walker, Kennys Vargas, Daniel Santana, Travis Harrison and Niko Goodrum. Pitchers it was Luke Bard, Hudson Boyd, Adrian Salcedo and Mason Melotakis. That is 11 that I came up with. The first thing that strikes me is how much deeper the Twins minor league system has gotten the last 2 years. Niko Goodrum has more upside than guys who were top 5 prospects in years past and may struggle to make the top 20 next year. I then pared that list down to 5 and nione of the pitchers made it. 3 of the 4, Bard, Melotakis and Boyd , are probably going to end up in the pen which drives their prospect value down. If it was 2 years ago, Salcedo probably makes this list, but he has been hurt and ineffective and is still not pitched above high A. Out of the position players I dropped Walker and Vargas. I really like the power potential that both show but the large strikeout totals scared me off. Also Vargas just hasn't played enough and has been old for his league.
     
    That leaves us with Nate Stache, Polanco, Santana, Harrison and Goodrum. This was really hard because I really like all 5. In the end I went with Polanco and Harrison. Polanco put up even better stats than Goodrum and he is 17 months younger. Santana has OBP issues that concern me as he moves up. I love Stache and I hope the Twins put him at New Britain to start this year and he tears up the Eastern League they way he did the Arizone Fall.
     
    We now have the top 10 and I need to put them in order.
     
    10. Travis Harrison 300/375/475. Cedar Rapids
    He didn't hit with as much power as I thought he would but the tools are there. I doubt he can stay at 3rd but the bat will play. I think he will go to Cedar Rapids and rake while showing a bit more power. He will continue to play 3B and will still pile up plenty of errors.
     
    9. Jorge Polanco 310/370/450 Cedar Rapids
    Jorge busted out huge last year and won't turn 20 until halfway they this season. He doesn't get talked about nearly as much as some other guys but I think this is the year that more people start to take notice. He came up as SS so playing a good 2B should be no problem.
     
    8. Trevor May. 160 IP 165 SO 57 BB 158 hits New Britain
    May will start the season in NB but will be promoted to Rochester by the all star break and will get a a few starts for the Twins inSeptember. He will be in the Twins rotation at the start of 2014.
     
    7. JO Berrios. 125 IP 135 SO 38 BB 105 hits. Cedar Rapids
    Berrios has an electric arm and could easily make it to Fort Myers this year. But I think the Twins will leave him in extended spring training for a little while to reduce his innings and and not have him pitch in the cold spring up north. In past years, Berrrios is probably the top pitching prospect in the system, now he's third.
     
    6. Max Kepler 300/400/525. Cedar Rapids
    Like Keith Law, I love this kid. I think he is going to be a star. He will have a huge year , bat .300, 20 plus homers, more walks than strikeouts. The year Kepler is going have would have him as the #1 prospect for several other teams but is our #6.
     
    5. Eddie Rosario. 320/350/490 Fort Myers
    Eddie is having a huge winter and Peter Gammons just called him one of the most impressive prospects in the Puerto Rican winter league. Rosario will continue to improve at 2B. He has too much athletic ability to not do well there. He will join Sano at New Britain before the season is over.
     
    4. Alex Meyer 140 IP 147 SO 54 BB 128 hits New Britain
    Meet another member of the 2014 rotation. Meyer will start the year in NB and like May will get a start at Targer Field in September.
     
    3. Sean Manaea 60 IP 85 SO 17 BB 42 hits Fort Meyers
    Left handed and can bring it. This guy will fit perfectly between Meyer and Gibson in the 2015 rotation. He dominated the Cape Cod league last year and my biggest worry is that he will be too good this year and be gone by the time we pick.
    2. Byron Buxton 285/345/450
    By the way how much fun is it going to be watching Cedar Rapids play this year. An infield with Harrison, Goodrum, and Polanco then Kepler and Buxton in the OF. Buxton will start to show all that talent this year by playing spectacular CF and showing off some power.
     
    1. Miguel Sano 275/380/545
    Sano is going to crush the Florida state league and will be in NB by the all star break. Think Arcia type stats with worse average but more power.
     
    So that is my top 10 for this time next year. The Twins will have a rotation of Meyer, Gibson, May, Hendricks and someone, please not Correa. Arcia and Hicks will be entering their first full season. Sano and Rosario will be a few months from making their debuts. Manaea and Berrios will be a year from joining Meyer and Gibson. The bullpen will be stacked with guys that throw mid 90's from both sides like Bard, Zach Jones, Chargois, Corey Williams and Melotakis.
  22. Supfin99

    How happy would we be

    By Supfin99,

    I was looking at several current and fromer players to see who some of our top prospects would compare to, maybe get a glimpse of what they might look like in a few years if everything went right. Would an infield featuring Adrian Beltre (Sano) and Robinson Cano (Rosario) excite you? How about an outfield Devon White, Magglio Ordonez, Kenny Lofton and Shawn Green
     
    Now Beltre made the majors at 19 and was full time in the majors for his age 20 season. Beltre is about 2 years ahead of Sano's timeline. Beltre did very well in the minors, posting 900 plus OPS at every stop. But a case can also be made that he was rushed to the majors. Beltre did OK in the majors in his first couple years, especially considering he wasn't able to buy a beer yet. Then is in years 3-5 he kind of struggled, posting low 700 OPS for all 3 years. Would Beltre have been better off spending another year in the minors to mature physically and emotionally? Also of interest, Beltre committed 37 errors at age 18 in 121 games at A+. The big difference in their minor league stats, besides the age difference, is the strikeouts. Beltre showed much better bat control and recognition, walking as much as he struck out as 19 year old in AA. Sano had huge strikeouts last year as a 19 year old in A. Beltre is a thicker than average 3rd baseman but isn't nearly as tall as Sano. So Sano is definitely behind Beltre's timeline and has struck out more often but there are similarities.
     
    Rosario to Cano is a bit more of a stretch as I don't see Rosario developing the power that Cano has shown. But Cano's minor league stats did not predict this kind of power either. Cano started his age 20 season at A+ and then was promoted to AA towards the end of the season. So time line wise Cano is ahead of Rosario same as Beltre was ahead of Sano. You can also make the arguement that Cano was too aggressively promoted. At the time of his promotion to AA Cano had sub 700 OPS thru 90 games. In his age 21 season he started to show a little of what he would become, posting a 301/356/497 slash with 35 extra base hits in half a season at A+. A season very similar to Rosario's age 20 season last year at A, 296/345/490. Sano came up a SS and has spent his whole life as an infielder. That is a much easier transition than Rosario's form an outfielder but Rosario has better quickness. Rosario has a lot of work ahead of him to be successfuk at 2B but he has the tools to succeed.
     
    Aaron Hicks just reminds me a lot of Devo, a bigger CFer that just looks like he is gliding out there. They both cover a ton of ground without looking like they are really flying. Devo had a good arm but Hicks' arm is special, being a 70 or an 80 depending on which scout you're looking at. Devo struggled in his 1st few years before putting up a 296/384/412 at AA in a half season at age 22. Hicks' age 22 season at AA was even better with a 286/384/460 slash. They both repeated a full season in A ball at age 20 with Devo having a 738 OPS and Hicks having an 829. Devo struggled in his first few years in the majors. He post a 700+ OPS just once in his 1st four full seasons. But after the trade to Toronto, he took off abd became one of the better centerfielders in baseball. He posted OPS in the upper 700s every year except 1, hit double digit home runs and won 5 straight gold gloves. I think Hicks covers as much ground, has a better arm and better plate discipline.
     
    I know that Magglio Ordonez bats RH and Arcia bats left but they look alike. Their swings are also similar, albeit from opposite sides. The first thing that jumped out at me about Oronez is that he did post an OPS above 800 until he hit 840 as a 23 yr old in AAA. Arcia on the other had has a career OPS of 905 thus far. Ordonez was good right from the start in the majors and soon developed into a star. Mags would have 4 straight season with OPS above 900 from age 26-29 and would make 3 AS games, finish top 20 in MVP 3 times and win a Silver Slugger award in that stretch. Oswaldo I can't wait to see if that is what you can be.
     
     
    When I 1st saw Max Kepler I immediatley thought of Shawn Green. Their build is almost identical with Green listed at 6'4" 190 and Kelper at 6'4" 180. Green was drafted in the 1st round out of high school but surprisingly was sent to high A where he predictably, struggled posting a 665 OPS. He only hit 1 homer in 417 at bats. That was enough to earn a promotion at age 20 to AA where he improved, slightly. He put up a 706 OPS with 4 HR's in 360 AB's. Green would then blossom in his 3rd year posting a 344/401/510 in AAA at age 21. Green was solid from the start in the majors putting up an 835 OPS as a rookie. He would develop big time power, averaging nearly 40 home runs a year in a 5 year stretch from age 25-29. Kepler is a few years behind Green's timeline, but like Green, took off in his 3rd year. Kepler hit 10 homers in 269 AB's last year after only hitting 1 in his first 374 professional at bats. Max is considered a better outfielder who can handle center if needed. I am a big fan of Kepler's and I think he will be flying up prospect lists as the year goes on.
     
    The last one is all about projection as Buxton barely got his feet wet in the minors last year. Lofton was drafted out of college so his timeline will look a little different than the path that Buxton will take. Lofton was much more a SB threat when he came up, than Buxton might be, leading the majors in SB's for 5 straight years form age 25-29. Kenny did develop decent power hitting double digit home runs 7 times in a 10 year stretch from age 27-36. Lofton was a 3 time Gold Glove winner. I think Buxton is slightly better version of Lofton with a stronger arm, more power but won't steal as many bases.
     
    I know comparisons are never spot on and can be unfair to both players sometimes. But they are also fun to look at. Will these 5 prospects turn into exactly these 5 guys, of course not. But we can dream, and in some insatnces they might even be better.
  23. Supfin99
    Now that Sano is in New Britain I thought we start speculating on how the Twins should handle him. I would love to see the Twins be proactive with him like the Rays were with Longoria. I think you go this agent next Spring and offer something like this.
     
    8 years 40 Million
    3 Million signing bonus up front
    Year 1 500K
    Year 2 500K
    Year 3 1 Mil
    Year 4 3 Mil
    Year 5 5 Mil
    Year 6 7 Mil
    Year 7 9 Mil
    Year 8 11 Mil
     
    4 option s totaling 55 Mil, with the annual breakdown being 12, 13, 15 and 15 Mil.
    This works for both sides. The Twins get a very team friendly contract that keep Sano here for at least 8 years and buys out 2 FA seasons. Sano gets 3 mil up front and 40 mil guaranteed. This way Sano can start next season at 3rd and not wait until June. The option years might be tough for the agent to swallow but I would push for them. What does everyone think?
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