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Kepler had a rough week, going 1 for 22 with 9 strikeouts. This slump brought his numbers for the year down quite a bit to .242/.303/.429 (.732). Hopefully things will turn around this week!

Kepler had an up-and-down week at the plate, with monster games on Monday (HR and Triple) and Friday (4 for 5 including a double), but went 0 for 3 on Thursday and 0 for 5 on Saturday. All together he had a great slash line for the week of .345/.367/.553 (.918). His 4 hits on Friday brought his average for the year over .300, and his full year slash line is now .304/.377/.551 (.927). Kepler played 4 games in Center,2 at DH, and one game at first base on Wednesday. He played 3 games at first back in 2011 at Elizabethton, but other than that has always been an outfielder.

Kepler had quite a week, especially considering it was his first full week in A-ball. He hit .273/407/636 (1.044) on the week including 2 doubles, 2 homeruns, and a walkoff single to give the Kernels their 10th straight win and a free meal. Check out the metro sports report article linked in the post above for a couple nice quotes. In the field, Kepler played center field in 4 games, right field in 1, and was the DH once. Here's an interesting stat - Kepler has 11 hits so fat this year, and only 4 of them are singles. The other 7 are 5 doubles and 2 homeruns. All of that makes his slugging percentage (.550) exactly double his average (.275)

I can't decide whether this means he should be traded or should not be traded. He should be traded because his very team friendly contract increases his trade value, and he should not be traded because the Twins have a top-rate closer locked in for three years at an awesome price. I think there's another more complicated reason to not trade him though. I recall reading something recently from Denard Span where he felt that he intentionally signed a long-term team-friendly contract so that he wouldn't be traded, and that ended up being part of the reason he was traded (i.e. his contract increased his trade value). If the Twins do this too often could it make players less likely to sign deals like this? Of course, there is risk on both sides to that sort of deal. Nick Blackburn signed a simlar length contract at a similar point in his career to both Span and Perkins, and it didn't turn out to be so "team-friendly."

In an interview a couple of summers ago Kepler mentioned more than once that he aspired to be a Josh Hamilton type. Hamilton is listed on Baseball-Reference as 6-4, 225, which is the same height and just a few pounds heavier than Kepler now. Hamilton has played plenty of CF, so I don't think it's out of the question based on size alone. I don't think Kepler would ever be playing CF on the same team as Buxton or Hicks though.

I just found this writeup of Jeff Johnson's from a couple days ago: Kernels’ new CF “ist ein guter baseball-spieler” In the article Kepler has this to say about his elbow injury: In other news, Kepler got a single and walked in a run yesterday, meaning he's on a 6 game hitting streak. Not bad for only playing 7 games! Hopefully the elbow issues are entirely behind him.

Big day for Kepler today with a homerun and a double. In addition, he played centerfield due to the Buxton promotion.

SD Buhr posted a great article today than includes an interview with Kepler. Check it out! Kernels Post-Buxton Era Begins: Welcome Max Kepler - Blogs - Minnesota Twins News & Rumors Forum Here's my favorite quote: SDB also asks lots of great questions about Kepler's parents and growing up in Germany playing baseball.

Kepler saw his first action of the year this week playing in 4 games for Cedar Rapids. He played LF on his first day back so evidentally they felt his elbow was ready for the test. On the week Kepler had 5 hits (3 of the doubles), 2 walks, 3 RBI, and 4 strikeouts, resulting a 4-day slash line of .278/.350/.444, which is a .794 OPS. It will be interesting to see how much time he gets in CF now that Buxton has been promoted to Fort Meyers. Last week he played 2 games in LF and was the DH twice.

As other folks have noted, Jeff Johnson of the Cedar Rapids Gazette has posted that Kepler will be joining the Kernels starting Thursday after their all-star break. According to the blog post below Jake Mauer said over the weekend that Kepler's elbow was still preventing him from playing in the field. Perhaps he'll be the DH for a while? Either way, I am certainly excited to hear he'll be back in action soon. Kepler headed to Kernels; end of line for Buxton? | TheGazette

Terry Ryan was on Reusse and Mackey this afternoon and Reusse asked him about Kepler. Ryan said a lot of very complimentary things including that Kepler was a "big, strong kid," that he was definitely ready for low-A ball if not for the injury, and that he was "the real deal." However, Ryan confirmed that Kepler is still out with the elbow issue but didn't say anything very specific. All he said was that Kepler had a "sore elbow" and hadn't been able to play. He said Kepler was supposed to play today in EST for the first time in a while and that he would be checking the box score carefully to make sure he did. (Side note - does anyone know if EST boxscores are online anywhere???) I'm probably reading too much into this, but Ryan sounded pretty frustrated when he was talking about Kepler's elbow. This seems to me like one of those classic Twins injury situations we've seen over and over again in the past few years. Someone looks like they'll be out for a few games and end up out for a couple months with no clear injury other than something that is bruised, sore, etc. I imagine this happens to all teams, but it sure is frustrating! As frustrating as it is for us as fans, I have to think it is countless times more frustrating for the players themselves. I'm hoping for the best for Kepler as he gets into games in EST, hopefully we will see him in Cedar Rapids soon!

Even if we agree on BPA being the best strategy, I think it is far from clear which of Bryant or Stewart is the BPA. How do you really compare a college slugger to a high school pitcher? I think the "clear consensus" that Appel, Gray, and Bryant are the top three in the draft has a hefty dose of risk-aversion built in, as I've read that Stewart has a higher ceiling than Gray or Appel. My pick would be Stewart over Bryant, and I should probably stay away from Vegas.

Not very creative, but here's my prediction: 1. Meyer 2. Gibson 3. Diamond 4. May 5. Worley

I had an email exchange with Jeff Johnson of the Cedar Rapids Gazette yesterday and asked him if he had heard anything about when Kepler might join the team. Here was his response... Good to hear they don't think it's serious, but it's too bad that he's missing so much time. I was looking forward to seeing how he would fare in his first full season.

This thread has been very educational - thanks everyone! Now.... let me see if I can do a little novice analysis of Joe Mauer using what I've learned in this thread. Feel free to laugh at this... First, here are some stats from 4 selected years - 2 bad (2007 and 2011) and 2 good (2009 and 2012). My goal is to see if any of these years had some "random variation" that helped or hurt him. I looked up BABIB, AVG, and LD%, and added OPS, HR, and HR/FB% since HR is excluded from BABIP and I would think those stats would help tell the story. [TABLE=class: grid, width: 500] Year BABIP AVG LD% OPS HR HR/FB % 2007 .319 .293 17 .808 7 4.5 2009 .373 .365 21 1.031 28 12.1 2011 .319 .287 21 .729 3 2.7 2012 .364 .319 22 .861 10 4.8 Career .345 .322 21 .87 96 5.7 [/TABLE] Here goes... 2007 and 2011 were two of Mauer's worst years, and both years had a BABIP that was 26 points below his yearly average. 2007 also had one of his lowest LD%'s, but 2011 had an average LD%, suggesting perhaps he was the victim of some negative "random variation." However, I'm sure we all remember the disaster that was 2011, and that he didn't seem like himself. I think the 2.7 HR/FB% gives that away. So, perhaps he was still hitting the ball hard (hence the LD% equal to career average), but not as hard as usual (the lower HR/FB%). This makes me think that the low BABIP in each of these years was not fueled by random variation, but by truly worse hitting. Of course, he had significant injuries in both of these years which is probably the real reason. Now for the good years... as we all know 2009 was incredible. His BABIP was 28 points above his career average, yet his LD% was at career average, and the same as the awful 2011. However, the number that leaps off the page and tells the story for me is his 12.1 HR/FB%, which is more than double any other year he has had (except his rookie year with only 122 PAs). I think this means he was clearly stronger, "seeing the ball better," etc. suggesting that the BABIP was driven by truly better hitting. Regarding 2012 - I called it a good year, but it was really average for Mauer (his average year is quite good!), Most numbers are right at career averages, but his BABIP was 19 points higher than his career average. Does this make anyone concerned that he wasn't quite as good as he seemed last year??? Okay, there's my first try. What do you think - did I go off the reservation?

I'm a numbers guy, and I love statistics, but I haven't spent a lot of time getting comfortable with sabermetrics, pitch f/x, etc. One of the sabermetric stats that has always surprised me is BABIP. I've heard a lot of people whose sabermetric opinion I highly respect refer to a high BABIP as being "lucky" (if you're a hitter, unlucky if you're a pitcher). I'm sure there is statistical evidence that backs this up, but it has never made intuitive sense to me. For example, when a hitter talks about "seeing the ball better," wouldn't that lead to a better ability to hit the ball harder and put it where he wants, causing a higher BABIP? Anyway, I just stumbled upon this year-old article by Steve Slowinski that I think is a great take on BABIP. I apologize if it was discussed before and I missed it. Jeremy Hellickson and re-defining BABIP Here's one paragraph that I particularly like:

Kepler's stats from his three years as a professional are below: [TABLE=width: 956] Tm Lg Lev Aff G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS Twins GULF Rk MIN 37 153 140 15 40 6 1 [/TD] 11 6 1 13 27 0.286 0.346 0.343 0.689 Elizabethton APPY Rk MIN 50 221 191 29 50 11 3 1 24 1 1 23 54 0.262 0.347 0.366 0.714 Elizabethton APPY Rk MIN 59 269 232 40 69 16 5 10 49 7 27 33 0.297 0.387 0.539 0.925 [/TABLE] As you can see, 2012 was quite a breakout year for Kepler. OBP was up 40 points, Slugging up 160, resulting in OPS up 200. He hit 10 homeruns vs 1 in the prior two seasons, and increased his walks while reducing strikeouts. As a result of all of these improvements Kepler jumped multiple spots on pretty much everyones top prospects list. However, a closer examination of his 2012 season reveals that he may have made some intriguing changes to his approach mid-season. I followed him closely last year, and was getting discouraged by mid July that he hadn't hit any homeruns. Then, starting with a grandslam on July 16th, he went on a tear, hitting 7 home runs in two weeks. Then, his power seemed to cool off a bit the rest of the year. To follow up on what I thought I saw last year, I analyzed his 2012 season by breaking it into three segments. Here they are: [TABLE=class: grid, width: 600, align: center] Segment G AB HR BB SO AVG OBP SLG OPS 1. June 19 - July 15 22 81 [TD]18 8 .296 .452 .407 .859 2. July 16 - July 27 11 45 7 2 8 .267 .313 .778 1.090 3. July 28 - Aug 28 26 106 3 7 16 .311 .354 .538 .892 [/TABLE] The drastic difference between segemts 1 and 2 jumps out at me. In the last two weeks of July, his average was 30 points lower and his OBP was over 100 points lower than the first month of the season, but his SLG and OPS were dramatically higher, obviously driven by his new-found homerun swing. His walks dropped precipitously and he had as many strikeouts in 2 weeks as the previous 4. This suggests to me that his homeruns were not just a matter of some additional strength and fly balls carrying a bit further (which I think Mauer's 09 season was), rather a wholesale change of approach at the plate. The third segment (the last month of the season) seems to be a compromise between the first two. He still hit some home runs, though not at such a torrid pace, and his AVG and OBP came back up a bit, with average actually higher than the first month, and OBP not as high but still strong at .354. This approach change is supported by something Kepler is quoted as saying in an article by Ashley Marshall earlier this year: So, what do we make of all this? To me, it is nothing but encouraging. He's now shown he can hit for power, average, and exercise plate discipline. The question is whether he will move even further in the power-hitter direction, or try to balance things out to become a more well-rounded threat. That last month of 2012 is actually the most encouraging stretch to me. He had the best average of the season and brought his OBP back up while still hitting a few home runs.

And lastly... here is an interview with Kepler by MLB Europe during the qualifying round of the WBC: [video=youtube;RwPnzi6rbZc]

Here is a video of Kepler taking batting practice that was uploaded this past December: [video=youtube;nL1OxzlhmhE]

As promised, here is some video of Kepler. First, there are two videos from the WBC qualifying round on his mlb.com page: Max Kepler Stats, Video Highlights, Photos, Bio | MLB.com: Team Next, here's a video from 2010 in the Gulf Coast League:[video=youtube;hTTZu1BF4cI] The biggest thing that jumps out to me from these three videos is how awesome his swing looks. I'm not a scout by any stretch, but there are a few players whose swings just look great to me - no excess movement, smooth and strong. Kepler is definitely one of those.

I've been intrigued by Max Kepler ever since the Twins signed him almost four years ago as a 16 year old out of Germany. He has raw tools that make the scouts rave and a very unique background as the son of two professional ballet dancers. According to the Washington Post, he was considered possibly the best European prospect ever when he was signed in 2009. With that, here is some key info: Name: Maximilian Kepler Position: OF Bats: Left Throws: Left Born: 2/10/93 Signed: July 2009 (International - Germany) Height: 6'4" Weight: 180 on Baseball Reference, 220 according to Ashley Marshall's article this past January Kepler should be spending this year with the Cedar Rapids Kernels, but is currently in extended spring training rehabbing an elbow injury. According to Mister-Baseball.com, he will be joining the Kernals around the end of April. There's been a lot of great articles written about Kepler, here are links to a few: Articles from 2009: Wall Street Journal article by John Miller - "Baryshnikov in Baseball Cleats" Washington Post article by Cameron Smith - "The Top European Prospect Ever" MLB.com article by Kelly Theiser - "Twins' Kepler-Rozycki is in his element" Article from 2012: heinnews article by David Hein (Q&A session) - "One-on-One: Minnesota Twins’ German outfielder Max Kepler" Articles from 2013: Twins Daily article by Nick Nelson - "TD Top Prospects: #10 Max Kepler" Twins Daily article by Cody Christie (inlcudes links to writeups by Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, and Keith Law) - "How Max Kepler can help conquer Europe" Pioneer Press article by Tom Powers - "Minnesota Twins' German prospect considered wunderbar" Mlb.com article by Ashley Marshall - "Passport Prospects: Max Kepler" Over the next couple of weeks, I plan on posting some stats, video, and my own analysis of his breakout 2012 season.

Max Kepler

I've got the same situation as your buddy. I live in a Northeastern suburb and I can get the station when I'm driving, but not in my house. It seems like there might be too much interference from another close-by station. I was so disappointed when I went to tune in to a spring training game and discovered my radio couldn't do it!

All games through the 9th are at 12:05, except for Saturday the 8th, which is at 6:05: Game Day

I played in babe ruth leagues until I was 15, mostly CF. I was a horrible hitter, but decent in the field. I had one of the strongest arms on the team but had horrendous control. After much pestering I eventually convinced my coach to let me try pitching in game we were probably already out of - 1 strikeout, 2 walks, and a homerun later and he decided he'd seen enough.