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cmb0252

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Everything posted by cmb0252

  1. cmb0252
    So drafting a pitcher who, in Keith Law's words, profiles as a league average pitcher helps fix our ace problem? Manaea has upside to be much more than a league average pitcher but he has significantly more question marks than normal college pitchers do to. Just because we want/need top of the rotation pitching doesn't mean it is there.
  2. cmb0252
    This is also a great question. Matt Garrioch over at minorleagueball posted an article about guys with sign ability issues. Link below: 2013 MLB Draft: Players With Signability Questions - Minor League Ball Honestly, looking at the list I can't find 2 names to go with McGuire's that gets me too excited. Maybe a McGuire, Serrano, Boldt combo would be ok but that's a lot of HS guys.
  3. cmb0252
    Haha, none of us are scout geniuses. If we were we would be working for a team! The way I look at this question isn't as much scout driven as fan driven. There have been plenty of picks that looked great at the time but failed later and visa versa. We won't know for years but you will know personally how you feel after you see/read who they took.
  4. cmb0252
    I think Twins fans would burn down Target field if the Twins didn't draft Appel or Gray if they were available. Outside of an injury there is no way they fall to us.
  5. cmb0252
    Where are if they drafted one of the OFers? Below live with and above really annoyed? I ask because I'm pretty high on Frazier but I have started to sour on Meadows. I don't know if I would be disappointed but I wouldn't be happy. Also, Shipley is a good name to throw out there. While I haven't read the Twins linked to him you know they have scouted him. He is pretty similar to Zimmer last year.
  6. cmb0252
    There has been a ton of great draft discussion on the forums from whom you want the Twins to take to best case scenarios to BPA vs Need. My question for you forum going people is this: Out of the players the Twins have been linked to at #4, who would disappoint you the most? Names they have been linked to are: Gray, Appel, Bryant, Frazier, Stewart, Moran, Manaea, McGuire, and Meadows. Personally, talent wise McGuire is a step behind everyone else, but if the Twins took him it would be on an under slot deal which you figure they would use on several other players. To me it isn't ideal but depending on who they got later I could be fine with it. The name that would really disappoint me is Moran. I don't think he sticks at 3b, which would mean he plays 1st, where his power won't play. Possible James Loney clone at 4= major disappointment.
  7. cmb0252
    Buxton with his 7th HR
  8. cmb0252
    Jeremy's interview with Sean Johnson paints a pretty good picture. As he said everyone has the same guys in the top 90-100 in some order for the most part. Around late third round is when you start getting your surprises, as you said, because most scouts only see regional guys. Whoever the Twins take at 4 will be well scouted.
  9. cmb0252
    50 is average. Gunnarthor's link is a pretty good article to help understand the grading system. You are pretty close with your examples but the one thing I would point out is that actual scouts grade on more than just 3 pitches/control. While I didn't post all of Law's grades, Mayo only had the basics, Law also has fastball movement, command (different than control), and feel for pitching in his grades. All these and much more can make and break a pitcher.
  10. cmb0252
    While this very true for fans but for front offices it is not. They are not looking at Law's or BA's or Mayo's prospect grades but their own. They pay area scouts, regional scouts, cross checkers, and front office people to make sure they get it right. Do they always get it right? Clearly not but once again, this isn't an exact science.
  11. cmb0252
    Matt Garrioch over at minorleagueball released his 2013 draft players with signability concerns list. With the Twins having the 43 pick there is a chance that most of these guys will be there and if they Twins like them will have to decide if they are worth the risk. Several names of interest: Kohl Stewart which he puts 2% chance of not signing Logan Shore which he puts at 50% chance he won't sign Ryan Boldt which he puts at a 40% chance he won't sign And my personal favorite: Kyle Serrano which he puts at a 50% chance he won't sign. There are a ton of talented prep arms on the list. Full article below: 2013 MLB Draft: Players With Signability Questions - Minor League Ball
  12. cmb0252
    Present and future scouting grades for this years top 5 college pitchers via Jonathan Mayo and Keith Law. Mark Appel Fastball: 70/80 (Mayo) 65/70 (Law) Slider: 50/60 (Mayo) 60/65 (Law) Change up: 50/60 (Mayo) 65/70 (Law) Control: 50/60 (Mayo) 65/65 (Law) Jonathan Gray Fastball: 70/80 (Mayo) 80/80 (Law) Slider: 50/60 (Mayo) 65/70 (Law) Change up: 40/50 (Mayo) 50/55 (Law) Control: 40/50 (Mayo) 60/60 (Law) Sean Manaea Fastball: 60/60 (Mayo) 50/55 (Law) Slider: 40/50 (Mayo) 50/50 (Law) Change up: 50/60 (Mayo) 50/50 (Law) Control: 50/60 (Mayo) 65/65 (Law) Ryan Stanek: Fastball: 60/70 (Mayo) 60/60 (Law) Slider: 40/55 (Mayo) 45/55 (Law) Curve ball: 40/60 (Mayo) 50/60 (Law) Control: 40/50 (Mayo) 45/55 (Law) Braden Shipley Fastball: 60/70 (Mayo) 60/70 (Law) Curve ball: 40/50 (Mayo) 50/60 (Law) Change up: 40/50 (Mayo) 65/65 (Law) Control: 40/50 (Mayo) 45/55 (Law) Interesting comparisons. They are different on a lot of these. Just goes to show scouting isn't an exact science.
  13. cmb0252
    I'm too lazy to update every players thread with stat updates so I will just do it here. The Good: Chris Anderson: 10 innings, 0 ER, 9/1 K/BB ratio Ryan Stanek: 7.2 innings, 0 ER, 4/4 K/BB ratio Manaea: 5.2 innings, 0 ER, 5/1 K/BB ratio (was on a pitch count) Moran: 10 Abs, 4 hits (one 3B), 4 RBIs Shipley: 7 innings, 0 ER, 10/1 k/bb The bad: Appel: 7 innings, 4 ER, 11/1 k/bb Gray: 6.1 innings, 4 ER, 3/1 k/bb The Ugly: Wahl, Williams, and Blair (aka college arms trying to stay in the first round) Christopher Crawford notes a scout had this to say about Shipley: He was impressive,” said an NL East scout. “This was the guy we saw in March, the guy with a mid-90’s fastball and plus-plus change who attacked hitters and missed bats. When he’s firing on all cylinders, he’s as good as any pitcher not named Appel in this class.”
  14. cmb0252
    Why is it silly? Projecting future production is what BA does. Machado, Miller, and everyone else on the list were or are still currently top prospects. Callis is just saying on pure talent/upside they are the best group.
  15. cmb0252
    Thanks for the updated. Been dying to see Kepler and Bard come back.
  16. cmb0252
    Haha, nice!
  17. cmb0252
    They picked JO last year at 32, Bard later in the supp round, have the 43 pick in a very deep college pitching class this year, and traded for Meyers/May. A top 5 pick should be a franchise changing player, not a big league average player. Is Manaea a franchise changing pitcher? He could be. Law agrees with Mr.Nelson in the fact Manaea could be special if people can find that Cape cod magic again: "Manaea profiles more as a league-average big-league starter right now, but a team that thinks he can recapture his look from the summer of 2012 might take him higher than that in the draft" Was the Cape Cod performance a mirage? I have no idea but you know the Twins front office has done their homework and if they take Manaea at 4 they think he is legit.
  18. cmb0252
    Jim Callis answers this question for his weekly Ask BA article: How would you rank these teammate tandems in terms of having the most potential five years down the road: Cardinals (Oscar Taveras, Shelby Miller), Diamondbacks (Paul Goldschmidt, Tyler Skaggs), Mariners (Taijuan Walker, Mike Zunino), Orioles (Dylan Bundy, Manny Machado) and Twins (Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano)? His pick? Here is what he said: "On sheer upside, Buxton and Sano immediately jump to the forefront. Buxton is the best five-tool player in the minors, Sano is the top power-hitting prospect in the game and both are having monster seasons. When they hit their primes, the Twins will get a close approximation of what it would be like to have Mike Trout and Bryce Harper in the same lineup." The article also has several other interesting things like this resp once from one of four executives asked if they would take Appel or Gray at #1: National League executive: “I’d take Appel because of his pitchabilty. I think he’s a better pitch-maker than Gray. Their stuff is very similar. Appel does it better than Gray does it. I’d take [Kris] Bryant over both of them. You don’t get too many chances at a special bat.” Full article below: http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/ask-ba-twins-have-top-prospect-tandem/
  19. cmb0252
    As a sophomore Manaea threw 105 innings and his fastball was in the 89-93 range. As a junior he has thrown about 75 innings and from my knowledge hasn't hit over 94. For the 50ish innings he pitched in the cod he was in the 92-96 range. To me that says he out performed in the cape cod league and was bond to come back to earth. Why was he throwing harder in the cape? That's a multi million buck question. Hot radar guns, better conditioning, passed and present injury problems, mechanical issues, or who knows. Also, the length of his outings could effect his velocity as we see with relief pitchers all the time. I just don't think it is safe to assume he will regain his cape cod form.
  20. cmb0252
    I think this logic is a little flawed. Manaea didn't have a velocity drop but more of a spike in velocity in the cape cod. Manaea never threw in the mid 90s before the cape and hasn't thrown in them since. He wasnt much of a prospect till his velocity spike. Quoting Keith Law; "Manaea was nowhere on the prospect map until he went to the Cape Cod League last summer and started hitting 96 with a plus slider, putting up numbers that rival those of the best pitchers in the Cape League's history, including 85 strikeouts in 51 2/3 innings against just seven walks and 21 hits." Personally I don't think the injury is to blame but more of regressing to the mean. While you are right that he definitely has upside he also brings a ton of risk for a college guy.
  21. cmb0252
    Ryan's dominating Texas baseball!
  22. cmb0252
    Personally I'm not big on Windle. Low upside. Like Wimmers a few years ago his value comes from his speed to the bigs. The Twins have enough back of the rotation arms so why not swing for the fences at 43?
  23. cmb0252
    It would be awesome but it isn't going to happen. The Astros are just doing their homework. The three teams that draft in front of the Twins need pitching just as bad, if not more than, the Twins. We have Gibson and Meyers who are better pitching prospects than anyone the cubs, Astros, or Rockies have. Once again, getting Gray or Appel would be great but it is a pipe dream.
  24. cmb0252
    Here is another mock from Through the Fence baseball website. They have the Twins taking Frazier at 4 and UC Irvine's Andrew Thurman at 43. http://throughthefencebaseball.com/mock-2013-mlb-draft-top-75-picks/33075
  25. cmb0252
    Even though Buxton signed for 200k under slot he still signed for a 1.2 million more than any other prospect. 15 out of the 30 first round prospects that signed last year were under slot.
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