Oxtung

No it doesn't. It looks as stupid today as it did a year ago. With Baker there was at least the hope that he could return and pitch with some above average results. He could then perhaps have been re-signed or traded at some point. Pelfrey on the other hand had no upside. Even when healthy he hadn't been good, there was no hope that he would be an above average pitcher. So at best you get a #4 or 5 starter with the risk that he is God awful or doesn't pitch. Well, we got the God awful. How did that help the Twins exactly? If the Twins had signed Baker and gotten God awful (or no innings at all), at least we could have said they were trying to put a good pitcher on the field.

The Nolasco signing was OK. The Hughes signing I disagreed with but not terrible, but there was no good reason to resign Pelfrey. He has very little upside and now takes a rotation spot for the next 2 seasons. The Twins would have been better suited to trying to trade for an actual good pitcher, letting one of the young guys with a future take the spot or waiting and signing a real upgrade next off season. Pelfrey makes no sense on a 2 year deal.

Damn, I would rather have traded for Anderson than signed either Nolasco or Hughes. Oh, to have an above average pitcher on the staff.... Ah well, another season of mediocre pitching will just blend into the last 5 years.

Starting in January they could be a part of a package as a PTBNL.

I'd love for the Twins to pick up Anderson. He is a legitimate starter on a playoff team with the potential to be a game 1 starter. He is left handed and still only 25. I'd trade for him in a heartbeat. If things go well in 2014 I would look at signing an extension next fall, if they don't you cut bait. There is an interesting crop of FA SP next winter (of course many of those might sign extensions yet). If he is good and the Twins can't get the extension then he is a possible mid-season trade candidate in 2015 and as someone stated earlier, there is no better trade chip in baseball than starting pitching. I really see no downside here. Chance at an ace with no long term salary commitments.

I think those are both interesting names as well. Hellickson is a nice bounce back candidate and you could possibly buy low. Though you'd still have to trade with the Rays and that is always tough. The Rays have a bunch of young pitching right now so they probably would be able to replace Hellickson. Something would have to be worked out with Bailey ahead of time for me to make the trade. Word is he doesn't want to sign a long term extension the season before he hits the FA market. Several of you mentioned a need for an upgrade at SS. Here is what's available for FA's in 2015. Asdrubal Cabrera (29), Hanley Ramirez (31), JJ Hardy (32). Jimmy Rollins (36) has an option that could get turned down.

Since I had already done some previous research into this I'll post what I've found. Looking strictly at ERA- (which adjusts ERA for league and ballpark and then compares to major league average) this is how many players were below average pitchers and pitched (or would have pitched if their team hadn't flopped) in the playoffs. Below Average Pitchers [TABLE=class: grid, width: 500] [/TD][TD]'03 '04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Made ALDS 3 7 3 3 4 3 2 4 4 1* Made ALCS 1 3 0 1 2 1 1 1 3 1 [/TABLE] *2 more made the one game playoff and would have pitched had the Rangers advanced. So 34 below average pitchers have started games in the last decade. That is 21%. That number drops to 14 and 18% in the ALCS. Ricky Nolasco and Phil Hughes are both below average for their career and over the last 3+ years. Using Nolasco's 2013 and Hughes 2012 ERA-(which, at 101, were their best seasons recently) they would have been a #3 starter in three games or 8% of the time. They would have been a number 4 starter on twelve occasions or 30% of the time. They wouldn't have pitched 63% of the time. This is just one statistic but combined with my previous research it doesn't paint Nolasco and Hughes in a favorable light. It does however highlight the need for the Twins to obtain a pitcher with front of the rotation stuff.

Even if you make the assumption that Nolasco is a #3 starter on a good team (which the only evidence provided so far does not bear out) the Twins will still need to find 2 front of the rotation pitchers. Meyer and Gibson have potential but to count on them both seems foolhardy. There is no good way to statistically compare Nolasco to former Twins playoff teams because the pitching environment has changed drastically. The best that could be done is to compare ERA- or xFIP-. It would not be a direct comparison but rather a look at how each pitcher ranked in relation to the other pitchers in their league and season. As an aside, reliable isn't synonymous with good. Just because a pitcher can throw 200 innings doesn't mean he's a great pitcher. There are many pitchers that don't throw 200 innings and yet are more valuable than Nolasco.

Well the Twins will need 3 pitchers better than Nolasco. Meyer and Gibson will hopefully fill one of those and if we're very lucky, two. That still leaves a big void. Stewart won't be ready until 2017 at the earliest (that's making the big assumption that he pans out as a front of the rotation starter in the first place). Berrios is possible in 2016, but again that's assuming he pans out to his potential. So, if you want to "make a run in '15 and '16" you'll need to find 1 or 2 more really good pitchers from somewhere.

I like your idea about the SS, however finding one on the FA market is next to impossible. Earlier this off season I looked at potential trade partners and the most intriguing one to me was Perkins for Tyler Skaggs (LHP) and Chris Owings (SS) from the Diamondbacks. The Twins might have to throw in something to balance that out a bit. Owings played very well at AAA last season and appears ready for the majors but the Diamondbacks have Didi Gregorious blocking him at SS and Aaron Hill at 2B. Hill has posted an OPS+ of 130 each of the last 2 seasons and is signed through 2016. Given all that there doesn't seem to be a good spot for Owings. Skaggs is a former highly touted prospect that just hasn't panned out yet. He has all the tools in the world but can't put them together. This is his last option year and their rotation looks set. In addition they have top 10 prospect Archie Bradley starting this season at AAA. Perhaps they're ready to recoup what value they can still get out of Skaggs. If Owings isn't available or you don't like his defensive profile you might be able to trade for Gregorious instead. Not sure you could get Skaggs tossed in as well though.

I think you missed this statement right at the beginning: Unless you think Nolasco and Hughes could be #1 or #2 starters? I full admit, and admitted in the original post, that much of that is my impressions of how things play out. If you're not happy with them feel free to change them as you see fit.

Here is how I would attack the problem of the Twins rotation. 2014 I would attempt to trade for Brett Anderson. He has 2 option years left ('14-'15) and is paid a pittance. When healthy he is a front of the rotation starter, though staying healthy has been very hard for him. His 6.04 ERA in 2013 and injury concerns might make him available relatively cheaply. I would dangle Perkins in the trade. He is a luxury a losing team doesn't need and his $4 million salary matches up perfectly with what Balfour was paid in 2013. The Twins have several potential closers in their pipeline. Meyer, May, Z. Jones, Tonkin, just to name a few. If that trade doesn't work out I would try and sign a 1 year high upside contract. Bartolo Colon fits the bill nicely. Money isn't an issue so I would pay what was necessary. The rest could go to fix holes in the lineup. I would still look to move Perkins. If Anderson doesn't work out I would look into some of the minor league pitchers with top of the rotation potential. 2015 If I traded for Anderson and he had a nice bounce back year I would exercise his option then try to extend him. He will only be 27. If he didn't bounce back or I couldn't swing the trade I would sign one of the top tier FA's that could be available in FA. If there aren't any to sign I would look at making a trade for one. So my chart would look like this: [TABLE=class: grid, width: 500] 2014 2015 2016 2017 Anderson/Colon Anderson/FA Anderson/FA Anderson/FA Correia/Meyer Meyer Meyer Meyer Worley/Deduno/Gibs Gibson Gibson Gibson Nolasco Nolasco Nolasco Nolasco/Stewart Hughes Hughes Hughes/Berrios Berrios [/TABLE] I think this sets up a real nice balance of present possibilities with long term strength. If things break right 2014 could be a very nice rotation. If Anderson and Gibson turn things around there's a legitimate chance the Twins have a #1 and #3 starter with Meyer, a potential #2, coming up at some point and taking Correia's spot. In 2015 there is a decent chance the Twins have legit pitchers 1-5. In 2016 Berrios could be ready to fill in where needed and in 2017 Stewart could be. There's also a slew of pitchers with potential that could be ready at some point in 2017. If there are injuries the Twins have a bunch of pitchers with back of the rotation potential to fill in where needed. This also sets up nicely financially. Anderson or the FA is going to get paid nicely starting in 2015 but Gibson and Meyer will be making minimum. Hughes $8 million is coming off the books in 2017 just as Gibson is hitting arbitration. Same thing in 2018 with Nolasco's $12 million available when Meyer is hitting arbitration. Anderson/FA's salary is freed up right around the time that Berrios and Stewart are hitting arbitration. All told that rotation should cost $35-$40 million dollars per year leaving $70-80 to fill out the rest of the team. That should be plenty since other than Mauer most of the players will be pre-arbitration for the foreseeable future.

We now have 3/5 rotation spots determined. We also know (somewhat at least) what is coming down the prospect pipe in the next few years. How do you think the Twins should handle things from this point on? Future Commitments [TABLE=class: grid, width: 500] 2014 2015 2016 2017 ? [/TD] ? Kevin Correia Ricky Nolasco Ricky Nolasco Ricky Nolasco Ricky Nolasco Phil Hughes Phil Hughes Phil Hughes [/TABLE] As you can see the Twins now have the back half of their rotation filled for several years. Whether you think Nolasco/Hughes will be 3/4 or 4/5, at this point the Twins are missing top of the rotation pitchers. Prospects Here is what is coming down the pipeline. Feel free to switch the years around if you think I'm wrong somewhere, this is just a guideline to help people not as familiar with the organizational depth. The years listed are when I think pitchers will start the season in the rotation, they might earn call-ups mid-season or in September the year before. The numbers beside their name is a guess at where they will fit into a rotation. So Alex Meyer (2/3) means I think Meyer will end up as a #2 or #3 starter. Keep in mind that not all of these pitchers are going to pan out. Some are going to fail. [TABLE=class: grid, width: 500] 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Gibson(3/4) Meyer(2/3) Berrios(3) Stewart(1-3) Thorpe(2/3) Deduno (4/5) May (4) Eades (3/4) Gonsalves (???) Worley (4/5) Jorge (???) Diamond (4/5) [TD]Landa (???) [/TABLE] The Twins also have a slew of pitchers that could potentially fit into the back of the rotation: Darnell, Baxendale, Duffey, Summers, Melotakis, Bard, Wimmers, Lee, Boyd, Sulbaran, etc... 2014 FA Pitchers Pitchers available in 2014 FA that fit in the front half of the rotation possibly: Scott Baker, Bartolo Colon, Roy Halladay, Ubaldo Jimenez, Scott Kazmir, Hiroki Kuroda, Shaun Marcum, Ervin Santana, Johan Santana, Masahiro Tanaka. Obviously some of those are long shots, hello Johan, Halladay and Marcum! But they would also be just 1 year contracts. 2015 FA Pitchers 2015 FAs that might be front of the rotation material. Keep in mind that some of these guys will sign extensions and never make it to free agency. (O) means he has an option year that would have to be declined. (#) is the age they will be. Brett Anderson (O-27), Homer Bailey (29), Johnny Cueto (O-29), Dan Haren (34), Hisashi Iwakuma (O-34), Josh Johnson (31), Clayton Kershaw (27), Jon Lester (31), Justin Masterson (30), Max Scherzer (30). That's quite the list right now but a lot can happen in the next year. Trade Possibilities Rumored trade targets in 2014. David Price is in arbitration through 2015. Homer Bailey is a FA following the season and the word is he doesn't want to sign a long term extension. It's possible a Cardinal or Red Sox pitcher could be available due to their depth. The A's have been willing to part with their players in the past. There are also several minor league pitchers that might be available for trade, though prospect for prospect trades are rare so Perkins might have to be your trade bait. These include Tyler Skaggs and Robert Stephenson that the Twins might matchup with. Payroll Considerations At this point the Twins still have between $20 and $40 million to spend for 2014. They have another $16-20 million coming off the books after the season. Payroll shouldn't be a problem, though you might want to save some for positional players as well. Your Turn So, how do you proceed? What is your plan to bring the Twins back to the playoffs and make a push for the World Series?

I'm interested to know what people's expectations are for Mr. Hughes. Do people think he's going to average a 3.50 ERA? 4.00? 4.50? How many innings do people think he'll put up per year? Many people have talked about his "upside" and I'm curious to know what that means to people.

Let's say that your 2015 predictions turn out to be true, that's the foundation of a pretty good, but not great, rotation. My question is how does adding Arroyo or Hughes, at best #3 pitchers but more likely #4's, help get the Twins to the playoffs? What that rotation is really missing is 2 front of the rotation starters.

I can see your confusion. I should probably have made that chart clearer. If the pitcher was good enough to be a #3 starter on a team then he is also good enough to be a #4 starter and got credit as such. So Jimenez was good enough to be a #3 starter on 4 teams. He was also good enough to be a #4 starter on 9 teams, the 4 teams previously mentioned + 5 new teams. There was only 1 team, the Tigers, that he wouldn't crack. It just looks like Jimenez got credit for 14 teams because some teams got counted twice. I only looked at the 10 playoff teams though. I would guess, and it's just a guess, that neither Jimenez or Santana would crack #2 starter status on more than 1 team. It took quite a bit of time to pull all the data together and I don't have enough now to look at #2 starters. Maybe I'll come back to it later if people want to see it. As for competing in 2014 that is unlikely, though I think the best product should be put on the field within reason. 2014 is really about setting the Twins up for potentially making a run in 2015 and definitely being ready in 2016.

I would opt for neither. The Twins aren't lacking in back of the rotation options. We are missing front line options. Either sign someone long term with a history of being a good pitcher, sign someone short term with a history of being a good pitcher but question marks or pass altogether. Run Deduno, Worley, Albers, Hendriks out there instead and bring up Meyer, May, Darnell and anyone else who takes a step forward during the season. The worst thing we could do is to sign another mediocre pitcher to a 3+ year deal. That helps the present a small amount but hinders the future because you've now obligated innings to said pitcher in 2015-16. A second #4 starter in 2016 isn't going to push the Twins into the playoffs. On the other hand, if he prevents the Twins from singing or trading for a #1/2 starter...

Look we're veering way off topic here so I'm only going to say that projections are based off of past data. There is nothing more critical to a projection than the previous seasons statistics.

You're misunderstanding my point. I'm not talking about how the Twins will matchup in some hypothetical series. I'm showing that to even make the playoffs the Twins need three pitchers that are better than Ricky Nolasco. I'm trying to get people to understand that while he is a solid pitcher and has a spot on a playoff rotation, he isn't the front of the rotation help the Twins need. The Twins need 3 pitchers that are better than Nolasco and hoping that all three of Gibson, Meyer and May turn into front of the rotation starters is foolhardy. There has to be another acquisition of some variety (or two). If there isn't then the Twins are just biding time until Stewart, Berrios, Eades, Jorge, Thorpe and Gonsalves arrive in 2016+ and then more time while they get acclimated to MLB. I'm not in favor of waiting until 2017 to make a run at a championship. Are you?

Yes that is just 2013 data. There isn't a good way that I know of to aggregate multiple years of data into xFIP, FIP and SIERA. For my purposes I don't think projections would be applicable. We don't know which teams are going to make the playoffs in 2014. Many teams rotations are not filled out at this point and, perhaps most importantly, projections (I'm guessing here) don't handle mid-season callups particularly well and yet we're seeing that they have significant impacts on rotations during the playoffs. Would STEAMER have predicted that Michael Wacha would be the Cardinals #3 starter in the playoffs?

Several people here seem to want a pitcher on a 2/15ish contract. I understand the reasoning and it makes some sense. My question though is why Hughes? Kazmir was better across the board last season, K%, ERA, SIERA, xFIP, FIP and both WARs. He has shown in the past he is capable of putting together some really nice seasons, unlike Hughes, and he is left handed, again unlike Hughes. He is predicted to get about the same 2 year contract. So what do people see in Hughes that they like better than Kazmir? Is it simply the injury history?

It would be great if you would post the Twins' Scouting and Character reports. Then we could all have a clearer picture. Since I don't have those I use the information at hand. That information says that Nolasco is a #3 starter on non-playoff teams and a #4 starter on those heading to the post season. Since Tanaka has no MLB statistics I don't know how he compares. Here is a case where his scouting report is pretty much all that matters. As for Nolasco, Garza, Jimenez and Santana here you go: Where do these pitchers fit into a playoff rotation? [TABLE=class: grid, width: 500] Name #3 #4 BP1 Ricky Nolasco 1 8 2 Matt Garza 1 7 3 Ubaldo Jimenez 4 9 1 Ervin Santana 4/52 9 1 [/TABLE] 1Does not make rotation. Pitches from bullpen. 2Santana and Cingrani tied. Cingrani had better SIERA and ERA- while Santana was better by both WARs. They tied for xFIP- at 93. Jimenez and Santana would be #3 starters in about half of the rotations since there are 10 teams that make the playoffs. Garza and Nolasco are both #4 starters. Nobody makes the Tigers' rotation. Each of these pitchers would be #3 starters, at least, on non-playoff teams.

At 30 years old he is a back of the rotation starter. If that is what everyone is excited about then no problem. Maybe we're just arguing the semantics of the word "excited." When I think of who I'm excited about it only refers to better than average pitchers. Maybe that is the confusion here. If the Twins want Deduno, Worley and Hendriks to fight it out for that #5 starter role I have no problem with that.

I guess I'll be the naysayer here. I think Deduno is ripe for regression. His 5.6K/9, 3.4BB/9 and 1.352 WHIP all hint at luck more than stuff. Deduno survived because he got groundballs 59.7% of the time. That would easily have been the best in baseball if he had qualified. That seems likely to regress some. When that happens his HR/9 rate will increase as well.

Nolasco is a #3 starter on most teams that didn't make the playoffs. On playoff bound teams he is a #4 starter. I compared Nolasco to every playoff teams' #3 and #4 starters for 2013. I looked at ERA-, xFIP-, SIERA, fWAR and rWAR; essentially the 5 best metrics available. Of playoff bound teams he was a #4 starter on 7 out of 10 teams. He was a #3 starter for the A's and wouldn't find the rotation for the Tigers or Indians. TLDR: Nolasco is a #3 starter on 1 playoff team, a #4 on 7 teams and doesn't start for 2. To me that's all that matters, how does he compare to teams going to the playoffs.