GKuehl

I have speculated that if the Twins acquire a starting pitcher, he won’t clearly be seen as a top 50 or 60 starter. I would think the guy will be either unproven, an injury risk or coming off a disappointing or unproductive season. Further, I think most teams are placing a high price on pitching, particularly guys under team control.
Teams that have no real hope of contending should be a little more willing to part with starters under team control because by the time they expect to contend, guys in the majors will have moved on. In addition, bad teams might have pitchers whose stats look worse because they are playing for a bad team. Maybe a bad bullpen allowing lots of inherited runners to score, perhaps bad defense behind him or instances where the manager had no choice but to let a team put up crooked numbers because there was nobody available in the bullpen.
There were four 100-loss teams in 2023. Two of them were in the AL Central and thus would be unlikely to deal with the Twins. The other two teams are Oakland and Colorado. In exploring the pitching staffs for those two teams, my first thought was ugh!, there just isn't anything there. However, in looking a little deeper, I found one guy from each staff to consider. From Colorado, Austin Gomber was 29 last year and pitched 139 innings, he is a lefty, something I think the Twins would like to have in their rotation. In looking at Gomber's home-road splits, he compiled a 3.68 ERA on the road, away from Coors Field. I don't know anything about his injury history, but acquiring the road Austin Gomber for prospects might be something to consider. It appears that Coors messes with a lot of pitchers' heads and adjustments made in the high altitude diminish effectiveness when the pitcher is at a normal altitude. 
From Oakland, I nominate JP Sears. Similar to Gomber, he is a lefty in his late 20s. He worked over 170 innings last year and while his numbers weren't good overall, he seems to have worn down over the course of the year and perhaps the wearing down was exacerbated by being on a terrible team. His first half ERA was 3.97 with a 1.044 WHIP. and over 8 Ks per nine innings pitched. The walks and hits soared in the second half, so I will speculate he did wear out. He's not a big guy--5'11"180 lbs.--and this was his first full year of the major leagues. Also, I have to suspect that his manager was forced to work him longer in games because of the rest of the pitching staff being pretty awful. The coming season might allow Sears to handle additional work better and the Twins probably would be better suited to conserve his innings pitched. 
I know very little about either pitcher mentioned other than a quick look at BBRef. For all I know, either or both could already be scheduled for major surgery, but I do think looking for an undervalued asset on a bad team is one way to get value. 

In the 2019 offseason, the Twins had four promising young outfielders in the minors who could reasonably be projected to stick as MLB centerfielders, occupying at least a 4th outfielder role--Misael Urbina, Gabriel Maciel, Akil Baddoo, and Gilberto Celestino.
Urbina (20) is still in the organization, finishing the season at A-ball Ft. Myers. Maciel was claimed off waivers before the 2022 season by Oakland. Baddoo, quite infamously, was taken by the Tigers in the 2020 Rule 5 Draft, a fact that Twins personnel and fans are unlikely to forget following his rookie season in Detroit in which he slashed .259/.330/.436 over 124 games splitting time between left and centerfield (though not much griping is heard about him lately, given his struggles in 2022). The team may still come to regret not placing Baddoo on the 40-man roster to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft.
In contrast, the 4th player on that list, Gilberto Celestino, was protected from the Rule 5 Draft prior to the 2020 season as a 20-year-old player fresh off of finishing a good year at High-A Ft. Myers (and Cedar Rapids), a similar position to where Urbina is today. However, the timing of that move is meaningful, which will be unpacked shortly.
As a 20-year-old who had not played at AA yet, the case to protect the second piece of the Ryan Pressly trade wasn't strong, but it was still understandable to have a bit of fear of a solid defensive centerfielder being plucked away. After being added, Celestino spent the following season as part of the extended roster during the 2020 shortened and restricted season, not playing any games, but working out with Twins personnel nonetheless. All things considered, not the worst outcome.
The following two years, however, have been no more beneficial to his development. After a string of injuries to Twins centerfielders (and non-centerfielders like Rob Refsnyder and Kyle Garlick that were trotted out in center anyway) Celestino was forced into action in 2021, far before he was ready, leading to some ugly play from a 22-year-old player with no AAA experience and 96 plate appearances above A-ball. He also spent the entirety of 2022 with the big league club, save a week in AAA between Miguel Sano being activated and then placed back on the IL. He led the team in both games played in centerfield and games played in the outfield overall due to injuries in both leftfield and centerfield. However, this again was not an ideal situation for the young player, who slashed an unsavory .238/.313/.302 despite intense BAPIP luck in the opening month of the season while playing average outfield defense.
This blog was originally written under the assumption that Celestino was out of options as of the 2023 season, but I made an important discovery in researching Celestino's situation. He fortunately still has one, as his July demotion only lasted 4 days, short of MLB's 20-day grace period for the option to be used. The misfortune of the Twins roster situation has actually given Celestino another shot at a development year. Had he been in St. Paul much longer, he would be restricted to the MLB team unless the club exposed him to waivers, and I fail to see a world in which a 24-year-old, capable centerfielder with some upside making the minimum would go unclaimed on waivers.
So that brings us to today. At present, he projects on next year's squad as a fourth-outfielder type, alongside hypothetical bench bats Nick Gordon, Kyle Garlick, and Mystery Backup Catcher. However, that bench setup assumes that newly-acquired Kyle Farmer would be starting at shortstop. Should the Twins add a shortstop to start over Farmer, the bench becomes crowded.
Even without Farmer filling a reserve role, Celestino's skills are redundant on this roster as one of three bench outfielders on a team already projected to start four capable outfielders. As the team's seventh outfielder, Celestino is behind Nick Gordon as the primary backup centerfielder and behind Kyle Garlick as the bench righthanded bat. He is not markedly faster than Nick Gordon, so even in a pinch runner role, he is not clearly valuable. His OPS+ was the lowest on the 2022 team among players with at least 80 plate appearances, so he cannot be looked to as a situational pinch hitter, either.
Given this information, should the Twins want to keep Garlick around for a platoon role, Celestino seems to be the odd man out. This would be the best thing for his development, though. In his limited experience at AAA, he has shown promise with an .804 OPS in 220 plate appearances. Giving him a few months (or a full year) to grow in St. Paul would be the best thing for his development as an unpolished centerfielder with above-average but not good upside.
However, in order to afford the team and Celestino this luxury, there needs to be an additional line of defense between Celestino and everyday centerfield work. Byron Buxton's injury is well-documented, and the team has shown an unwillingness to move Max Kepler over to centerfield in recent years (9 innings in CF in 2022). Because of this, the Twins are an injury away from Nick Gordon being the everyday centerfielder and Celestino being the next man up.
If the Twins are serious about giving Celestino the best shot at developing into a solid contributor to the big league team for years to come, there needs to be at least one more centerfield option before turning to the young Dominican, even if just for the first couple months of the season. This could take the form of the coveted righty bat that I gave my opinion on here, such as an everyday play player like Adam Duvall. However, it doesn't need to be that great of an investment. Signing someone at the level of Travis Jankowski, Albert Almora, Brett Phillips, Kevin Pillar, or Adam Engel on a minor league deal would do the trick, providing one extra line of defense between Celestino and the big league squad as even a temporary fill-in should Buxton miss time with injury. Essentially, anyone over the cutoff of the 2022 version of Billy Hamilton will do.
A failure to find one more, even replacement-level, veteran to fill a backup-backup centerfield role may cost Celestino his last chance at incubating at AAA to realize his full hit tool. Forcing him into service for a third consecutive year in a reserve role with only 316 plate appearances between AA and AAA will not allow him to reach his potential. The Twins are fortunate to still have Celestino's third option year, and they should take advantage of it.

Clearly the Twins focus with the deadline in less than 2 weeks is pitching. Starters, Bullpen, literally any form of pitching would help.
We’ve all mocked up lists that feature candidates we think would be the best fits. Trade packages that include X player for Y. I wanted to dig a little deeper and see if there were any players that haven’t been mentioned on any of these lists.
Andrew Nardi, a 6'3 left-handed, 23-year-old pitching prospect currently in the Miami Marlins organization was the name I found. Drafted in the 16rd of the 2019 draft out of Arizona, Nardi has never been a top prospect. Never been on any top 30 prospect lists at all.
Yes, I understand this is obviously not a conventional trade target for contending teams at the deadline ... 99.9% (maybe even 100%) of the time you’re trading for a late inning reliever, who has a proven track record, and you can plug in with confidence day 1.
Nardi has a resume that reads blank when you look at baseball reference on the major league level tab.
In fact he's not even on the 40 man roster. So yes, this could be a horrible idea to throw out there. But while everyone is zigging, lets zag and think like the Rays, who somehow finding pitching out of no where every year.
Anyways, ill try and frame up why it might be worth a shot.
 
 
Nardi pitches from a 3 quarter slot and works mainly between a Fastball that sits 95-96 and a Slider that ranges anywhere from 82-85. He also does mix in a Curveball.
He started at AA to begin the 2022 season and was promoted May 13th to AAA after posting a 1.40 ERA in 19 IP with 31 K's. 
His success after the promotion has continued at AAA and he's been pretty much just dominating all year....  
 

 
Opponents are hitting .092 ... Yes, 0.92. The Marlins, who are facing a ton of tough decisions regarding the rule 5 draft this winter, don't exactly have a great, or even good bullpen, so it's safe to say if he was on the 40 man roster, he'd have been called up by now.
Anyways, to sum up just how dominate Nardi has been, here are the players between AA and AAA, under the age of 23 that meet the following criteria:
Max BB/9 of 4.0 Min K/9 of 10 MIN SWST% of 19%  

 
It's a small sample size, but you cannot completely dismiss it.
Baseball America's midseason update has 4 of those pitching prospects in the top 25 overall rankings, all 5 are in the top 100.
 
Shane Baz - 2nd Eury Perez - 9th Daniel Espino - 15th Bryan Bello - 24th Logan Allen - 96th  
Again, Its not exactly a perfect comparison. These prospects are all currently starters and project to be starters at the next level. The counterpoint to that as well though is none of those 5 prospects are a sure fire thing to end up being starters. 
With that said, it's absolutely noteworthy that the results Nardi is currently getting in the upper minors is on par with results Baseball America takes note of when ranking the elite of the elite in the next wave of young pitching. 
To sum it up, If fantasy world works out and you hit on this trade and Nardi turns out being the next Andrew Miller, you look like a genius. Nardi becomes a staple next to Duran for the next 6 years and your backend of the pen is top of the league.
Again, fantasy world. 
Obviously for all we know Andrew Nardi might not even be available in a trade. Nardi could just be on some insane stretch of pitching. But, for an organization with very few remaining options internally and a trade market that could feature more buyers than usual, its an interesting idea for a player that may cost very little.
Fun fact - he struck out Tim Anderson while he was on a rehab assignment earlier this year.
Thanks!