jokin

Conveniently ignoring the part about him being 40 in 2014 and initially signed as a FA in the role of "utility infielder".

See the post just above yours. The case has been made that, yes, they are both iffy, with the critical distinction that: Marcum last pitched effectively 4 months ago. Pelfrey's last effective pitching occurred in 2010!

This thread is assessing the offseason acquisitions, as a whole, and asking for a rationale from the Twins for why they did what they did. Come on, Pelfrey coming into the starting rotation right out of the shoot?, 11 months after TJ, is highly speculative, in and of itself, let alone the likelihood of a 15-day DL list tour for "arm soreness" or a few skipped-start "setbacks" and then ultimately being shut down due to innings limitations medical issues.

Again, it's even MORE likely that Harden and Pelfrey won't pitch the whole season and Marcum in place of one or both puts you out about the same or little more than the same $4M+ Harden, and it's not like they didn't have the payroll flexibility to take on the ENTIRE risk of all three.

The difference is we have evidence from the close of last season that he was eminently better than both of your alternatives, in real time. I'd argue that Correia and DeVries have demonstrated that they frequently "can't pitch" when fully healthy. And again, most importantly, there was more than ample money available to take an "all of the above" approach and see how it shakes out. Nothing risked, nothing gained.

I never said "he sucks, look at his ERA!" Of course he's better as a reliver than a starter (he can't get much worse as a SP). He's a reliever at a position that situationally, is the lowest of leverage opportunity. I said, with reiterative nuance, that what he does for his team is eminently replaceable, and from my point of view, anyway, nobody would be gnashing their teeth at any point in 2013 in certain applicable game situations that players at the level of Swarzak were somehow still on the team. As far as "upside" you mention his increased velocity and I see, year-over-year, 5 starts in 2012 vs. 11 starts in 2011, yet a decreased K/BB, a near-doubling of his HR/9 rate, an increasing OBA and WHIP and reflected in a falling ERA+ score of 81 down from an an already substandard 94. My argument would be for a rebuilding team like the Twins, to give the long-relief job to young guys waiting in the wings for their potential debut as starter. Low pressure and chances to hone their craft. A Swarzak represent the opposite of this philosophy.

It's more credible that the very same outcome you envision is going to occur to both Harden and Pelfrey. I don't think anyone threw out anything close to the Second Coming of Nolan Ryan Strawman for signing Marcum, nice try, though.

I don't think anyone in this thread has argued anything close to your latest strawman, "Mr Clean Bill". The side critical to the Twins FO decision-making here does get that, the "evidence" that your side has presented demonstrates that your types are the ones with your heads in the sand on this. The question of- how deleterious the injury to Marcum might be?- is the whole point of pursuing him- relative to the Twins fondness/aversion complex for Risk-Reward Roulette. The evidence from last year up to signing day for inking Marcum was that: 1) Marcum was pitching very well at the end of the season 2) Correia was not pitching very well at the end of the season 3) Pelfrey was not pitching 4) Harden was not pitching well- for the last 5 years 5) Marcum claims his MRIs shows he has no major structural damage 6) Marcum claims he has been on a new arm strengthening regimen since his injury 7) Marcum claims the regimen has worked, his numbers post-injury confirm that claim 8) Marcum claims he isn't feeling any residual effects from the 2012 elbow tightness 9) Marcum passes physical examination to confirm the Mets offer 10) Marcum claims that 15-20 teams contacted him, but no multi-year offers made 10) Marcum receives $4M offer w/ $4M more in incentive clauses from Mets The first conclusion here is given the risk, that the "market" for Marcum as a SP was one year, exact amount and incentives TBD. The next conclusion was that Marcum was deemed healthy enough for the Mets to risk up to $8M The next conclusion is that the Twins were only content in risking dollars amounting to Marcum's base salary- to a larger question mark for likely 2013 performance, Pelfrey- w/o the incentives. The Twins just prior to coming to this conclusion went to Defcon panic-mode & Tripled down on an inevitably Marquis-like deal- showing to all that they hadn't learned their lesson on Risk Management for Starting Pitching 101 just last semester. The last conclusion is that the Twins have mis-assessed the risk-reward options available this off-season w/ their $14M outlay.

In Pseudo's world, it's both axiomatic AND inflammatory.

I knew, if given enough opportunities, I'd find an area of disagreement. Since Swarzak is so "valuable" with his career 5.03 ERA, I'd love for you to go out on a limb and project how many teams would be after Swarzak on a waiver deal. And I think it completely misses the point that the other side is just saying. If you have a legitimate chance to make a distinct improvement to the ballteam, fretting about whether or not the "no-upside" and very replaceable players might get claimed off a DFA is misplaced angst.

Yes, it's a totally "bunk" premise that if there were 3 guys who should have been in consideration in Ryan's off-season goal of acquiring "a pretty darn good pitcher" at bargain prices, that it isn't at all "curious" that the Twins chose to sign the 2 guys who were no longer in their previous team's rotation through major surgery and major suckiness and completely ignore the guy who was pitching decent to very good over his last 9 starts through to the close of the season. (Oh, and happened to have the best career, and best 3 year, stats, of any of the 3).

When did MLB expand to 32 teams, or were Nishi's old and new teams in Japan in on passing on Marcum, too?

And both available in abundance on the Twins payroll and roster.

Brief excerpts from a few articles regarding today's unveiling of Shaun Marcum to the New York press. It could be all a massive cover-up about his arm health, but Marcum is now on record. He says he's completely healthy and no one offered him a multi-year deal. Begs the question, what held the Twins back from standing out in that crowd of 20 teams? And, why weren't they willing to outbid the horrid Mets on a one-year deal? Marcum: Replacing Dickey team effort - Mets Blog - ESPN New York: "....Marcum, 31, went 7-4 with a 3.71 ERA in 21 starts for the Milwaukee Brewers last season. He spent nine weeks during the summer on the disabled list with right elbow tightness, but said the injury was nowhere near as grave as the issue that led to him undergoing Tommy John surgery on Sept. 30, 2008. “We did MRIs, all that stuff. Nothing alarming,” Marcum said about last season’s DL stint. “We did another one this winter to make sure. And there was nothing alarming. I don’t know what exactly it was, but the main thing is it wasn’t a flexor tendon or a ligament or anything like that.” He said he would have liked to have signed a multi-year deal this winter, but “nothing came about.” “I know (Mets special assistant J.P. Ricciardi ), he pushed a little bit. I can’t say how much. But I know he had some say in getting me there,” Marcum said. “And the other thing, for me, was an opportunity to go out and pitch -- make 30-plus starts -- and an opportunity to go out and throw over 200 innings. I think that’s every starter’s goal. They’re giving me the opportunity to do that.” He said he has been throwing more this offseason than in other years as a pro to build up his arm strength. Marcum says he isn't feeling any residual effects from the elbow tightness that cost him nine weeks of play over the summer. Read more at MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com And this - NJ.com : “I’m actually throwing more than I did,” Marcum said. “The philosophy I was brought up in [as a pro] was kind of ‘save your bullets, don’t throw too much.’ I kind of went back to my old high school, college days when my arm was feeling great. I was throwing as much as I possibly could. Throwing every single day. Throwing more distance. Long-tossing out to 280, 300 feet. And I’ve just been building up that arm strength. He is pleased with the results. "I’ve really had no problems since starting that program," Marcum said. "And I’ve really had no problems since … when I came off the DL sometime in August."

Thankyou. The angst that so many carry about the difficulty in contemplating acquisition upgrades at this point in the preseason because of the dangers involved in potentially exposing the bottom 8-10 players on the 40-man is mind-blowingly misplaced. I can't think of one in-game-scenario this upcoming season, where one might say, "If only we hadn't exposed to waivers......Swarzak.......Butera.....Burnett.....etc.....

Right hand not having any idea about the "plenty-more freedom" the Left hand has granted him? Seems the club might be wise to hire one of the TD apologists for "Message Management".

Huh? I've seen more heart-felt "votes of confidence" from owners and GMs given to managers just about to get fired.

Mackey: Low-risk or not, Twins are taking philosophical gambles | 1500 ESPN Twin Cities ? Minnesota Sports News & Opinion (Twins, Vikings, Wolves, Wild, Gophers) | Sportswire: Minnesota Twins "Well, I always go back to the scouting evaluation, people that have seen him, and we saw him a lot with the Pirates, and certainly before that when he was with the Padres and the Giants," Ryan said recently. "We like his makeup, he has stuff, we had evaluators tell us and me in particular that this guy is better than the numbers." Still, Ryan -- who runs every transaction by the Twins' internal statistical analysis department -- has elected to put more faith into the scouting evaluations of Correia than what we see on paper. "Certainly he fell off there when they took him out of the rotation (in August) when they brought in Wandy Rodriguez, and that had a little bit to do with some of his (sub-par) numbers and lack of innings (last) year," Ryan said. "But I have a lot of faith and trust in people that have seen him, and they were adamant that this guy can help us. He's a little bit better than a fifth starter. ... "I don't think we overpaid drastically in this situation. People that know him say that he's a good teammate and all that type of stuff, so you take all of that into consideration. We needed pitching badly, so we went and got him. ...

Except it was just last week that even Ryan himself acknowledged the heat he was getting on the acquisition by backpedaling, downplaying and blame-shifting Correia's projected value as an acquired asset.

I think you've made it quite clear in the last couple dozen comments that you don't care. Yet you inexplicably continue "talking baseball"...

Wow, how good a Get was that? Waiting for response....

Stick-banger

Now I think I'm getting it. Putting the pieces together, LJ, who self-admittedly ignores everyone of those whose presentation of facts for the reasons this is a bad deal, still finds time to criticize the "irrationality" of their documented dissent from the The Twins Way. LoganJones evidently is the Internet BoBo-Apologist for that unnamed "StatGuy" in the Twins basement that TR pledges that he always has run the numbers for him before they pull the trigger on each offer. A little knowledge can be a dangerous thing....and if you don't like Logan's version of The Truth, you're a stick-banging whack-job.

I would guess they may end up needing 13 openings, at least to start the season, what with all the early-season health-issue question marks on the pitching staff. Drew still has an invauable option or two left on his services, doesn't he? He can ride to the rescue the first time Doumit or Mauer go down with a ding.

Don't go out on such a limb, Kwak!