CharacterGroove

No. It's a "bad PR move" either way. The point is you don't hold off the inevitable. Let's stop pretending there's not a direct correlation in Morneau's trade value this summer and the Twins' strategy to win after 2013. The scouts are in agreement. I hope the absolute best for Justin Morneau, and I'm excited to have a team to cheer for this fall. I also hope the scouts are wrong and he has some very strong years left.

Well if he's a member of the team with an expired contract (oh, and former MVP), any decision this winter necessarily would involve him. It would hang over everything. The circumstances resulting from this trade right now are better for both parties - Morneau and the Twins.

Because we got something for him. Even if they don't pan out, and it's likely they won't, at least the page is turned and the team won't go through resigning negotiations this winter. That's a cloud over the offseason because we all like Morneau.

Because we were not going to keep him anyway; and if we did make the investment, it's unlikely that he'd be the player we need (at that cost) from ages 33/34 and up.

I have no doubt this trade will draw the wrath of the mouth-breathing, star-tribune-commenting faction of our fan base. But I suspect they'll find other things to to bitch about this fall. For the rest of us, we recognize that it's the best situation for Morneau's short and long term career, and is likely a net positive for the Twins long term (but not short) because Morneau is unlikely in the team's plans, and negotiations this winter would be burdensome (i.e. kicking the "PR move" can down the road). The former should impact the pros and cons of the latter.

This is a great opportunity for Justin. I'm glad something worked out.

You want Sano and Buxton to go through their growing pains behind better pitching?

I agree that appeasing the fan base (or marketing for that matter) shouldn't be a consideration. It's all about what's best for the prospect's development, which with Buxton, obviously has a direct correlation with what's best for the Twins. Everything else falls into place after that.

If it's me calling the shots, Buxton plays in AFL this fall, and starts in AA next spring. If his numbers are Buxton-like after 100 at bats or so, you start getting the big squad ready for the 2-step jump. Nobody on the current MLB roster should get in the way.

This seems a little out of the blue.

I didn't quite catch the exact same period, but below is Sano's numbers in A+ and AA through approximately the same period. [TABLE=class: dataTableClass, width: 615] [TR=class: headerRow] [TD=bgcolor: #666666, align: center]Team[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #666666, align: center]League[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #666666, align: center]AVG[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #666666, align: center]G[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #666666, align: center]AB[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #666666, align: center]R[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #666666, align: center]H[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #666666, align: center]2B[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #666666, align: center]3B[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #666666, align: center]HR[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #666666, align: center]RBI[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #666666, align: center]TB[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #666666, align: center]BB[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #666666, align: center]SO[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #666666, align: center]SB[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #666666, align: center]CS[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #666666, align: center]OBP[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #666666, align: center]SLG[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #666666, align: center]OPS[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: dataRow even] [TD=class: dataCell, bgcolor: #CCCCCC, align: center]FTM[/TD] [TD=class: dataCell, bgcolor: #CCCCCC, align: center]FSL[/TD] [TD=class: dataCell, bgcolor: #CCCCCC, align: center].330[/TD] [TD=class: dataCell, bgcolor: #CCCCCC, align: center]56[/TD] [TD=class: dataCell, bgcolor: #CCCCCC, align: center]206[/TD] [TD=class: dataCell, bgcolor: #CCCCCC, align: center]51[/TD] [TD=class: dataCell, bgcolor: #CCCCCC, align: center]68[/TD] [TD=class: dataCell, bgcolor: #CCCCCC, align: center]15[/TD] [TD=class: dataCell, bgcolor: #CCCCCC, align: center]2[/TD] [TD=class: dataCell, bgcolor: #CCCCCC, align: center]16[/TD] [TD=class: dataCell, bgcolor: #CCCCCC, align: center]48[/TD] [TD=class: dataCell, bgcolor: #CCCCCC, align: center]135[/TD] [TD=class: dataCell, bgcolor: #CCCCCC, align: center]29[/TD] [TD=class: dataCell, bgcolor: #CCCCCC, align: center]61[/TD] [TD=class: dataCell, bgcolor: #CCCCCC, align: center]9[/TD] [TD=class: dataCell, bgcolor: #CCCCCC, align: center]2[/TD] [TD=class: dataCell, bgcolor: #CCCCCC, align: center].424[/TD] [TD=class: dataCell, bgcolor: #CCCCCC, align: center].655[/TD] [TD=class: dataCell, bgcolor: #CCCCCC, align: center]1.079[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: dataRow odd] [TD=class: dataCell, align: center]NBR[/TD] [TD=class: dataCell, align: center]EAS[/TD] [TD=class: dataCell, align: center].244[/TD] [TD=class: dataCell, align: center]60[/TD] [TD=class: dataCell, align: center]209[/TD] [TD=class: dataCell, align: center]32[/TD] [TD=class: dataCell, align: center]51[/TD] [TD=class: dataCell, align: center]14[/TD] [TD=class: dataCell, align: center]2[/TD] [TD=class: dataCell, align: center]17[/TD] [TD=class: dataCell, align: center]51[/TD] [TD=class: dataCell, align: center]120[/TD] [TD=class: dataCell, align: center]29[/TD] [TD=class: dataCell, align: center]71[/TD] [TD=class: dataCell, align: center]2[/TD] [TD=class: dataCell, align: center]1[/TD] [TD=class: dataCell, align: center].340[/TD] [TD=class: dataCell, align: center].574[/TD] [TD=class: dataCell, align: center].914[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: dataRow highlightRow even] [TD=class: dataCell, bgcolor: #EEEEEE, align: center]Minors[/TD] [TD=class: dataCell, bgcolor: #EEEEEE, align: center] [/TD] [TD=class: dataCell, bgcolor: #EEEEEE, align: center].287[/TD] [TD=class: dataCell, bgcolor: #EEEEEE, align: center]116[/TD] [TD=class: dataCell, bgcolor: #EEEEEE, align: center]415[/TD] [TD=class: dataCell, bgcolor: #EEEEEE, align: center]83[/TD] [TD=class: dataCell, bgcolor: #EEEEEE, align: center]119[/TD] [TD=class: dataCell, bgcolor: #EEEEEE, align: center]29[/TD] [TD=class: dataCell, bgcolor: #EEEEEE, align: center]4[/TD] [TD=class: dataCell, bgcolor: #EEEEEE, align: center]33[/TD] [TD=class: dataCell, bgcolor: #EEEEEE, align: center]99[/TD] [TD=class: dataCell, bgcolor: #EEEEEE, align: center]255[/TD] [TD=class: dataCell, bgcolor: #EEEEEE, align: center]58[/TD] [TD=class: dataCell, bgcolor: #EEEEEE, align: center]132[/TD] [TD=class: dataCell, bgcolor: #EEEEEE, align: center]11[/TD] [TD=class: dataCell, bgcolor: #EEEEEE, align: center]3[/TD] [TD=class: dataCell, bgcolor: #EEEEEE, align: center].382[/TD] [TD=class: dataCell, bgcolor: #EEEEEE, align: center].614[/TD] [TD=class: dataCell, bgcolor: #EEEEEE, align: center].996[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Looking at the full picture, the average can be a little deceiving.

Thanks the write-up, good stuff.

I'll be even more straightforward. My "alpha dog mentality" comment was in response to your question of "why think Sano should continue his development at the major league level." (Post #103) You replied by saying that my comment essentially argues that Sano should have always been in the bigs. (#110) I didn't think that nonsensical point was worth a response, so I instead focused on why you're even arguing this in the first place, because I know you understand the emotional and psychological aspect of player development. (#113) For reasons only you know, you then decided to double down on that nonsensical argument. (#114) In doing so, however, and undoubtedly as a crutch, you framed a completely different question, and then mocked my putative answer to that question. (same) Not only do I stand by my previous comments, I'll remind you exactly what I said. (It's all on record.) This whole line of questioning started with a question of "Why do you believe that Sano is ready to be called up to the majors?" (#91). If you go from there, you'll see that my comment of "alpha dog mentality" became one part of that general answer. (#94, 97, to previous cites) In response this post, I still agree that I'm not in the best position to make a decision, and that variables not seen in box scores or scouting reports should matter. But I disagree with your repeated assertion that one variable to consider is the fact that other highly-ranked prospects that were brought to the majors at age 20 have failed. It's a wrong decision if Sano's best interests are not served. This, of course, has a strong relationship with the Twins' best interests. My argument should be pretty clear based on that "logic."

I actually replied with three answers - one for each of your three questions. Please correct me if I'm straying. My first point related to Sano's "alpha dog personality." And I might add that I didn't expect my opinion with that to be interpreted on an island. His accolades are well documented. With your subsequent zinger, please notice that my answer of "alpha dog personality" was not in response to any question about "deserv[ing] a promotion." Regardless, if that's the general question now posed, let's use some logic. I don't know any 16-year-olds with Sano's numbers, scouting reports, and of course experience. Do you? I've been arguing that it makes sense for Sano to "continue his development at the major league level." I didn't pull that question out of thin air. On the topic of logic, you'll have to rephrase those last two questions.

Attitude (i.e., confidence), maturity, and all other emotional and/or psychological attributes are major factors in athletic success. I know you understand that so I really don't understand your point here. Argue for the sake of arguing? If you are, at least stay on topic and say "no, Sano seems like a delicate flower, and may be irreversibly harmed if he does poorly at the MLB level this fall." Or you can always fall back on: "I don't know Sano's makeup, and neither do you, so it's all too speculative." I can't disagree with that. My opinion on Sano is based on scouting reports and box scores. My opinion is of course bolstered by the success of other elite prospects with similar experience and success at the MiLB level. My opinion on Plouffe is based on first-hand viewing and box scores.

A point of disagreement between us might be that I don't believe a September call-up would fall under "rushing" Sano to the bigs. I think it's a rather reasonable progression considering his talent, the fact that he's finishing his 4th good year as a professional, and the fact that he turns 21 next spring.

And that's really what this discussion is about: September, April, May, June, or sometime thereafter. It's not about whether Sano will reach his potential. (And to be honest, as much as I've taken the "aggressive" position, I'm not bullish on his prospects as an All-Star talent.) My position is based more on the philosophy of giving your ace the ball. I don't think Sano is the type of guy who needs to be protected from failure, and the Twins are certainly a team that needs his skills as soon as possible. And as good as Sano's skills are, he'll need MLB experience. Everybody will agree with that. The Twins can start that process down the road or seize a potential opportunity. It's a risk-reward thing for me: I don't see the reasonable downside.

1. Because I think Sano has an alpha dog mentality. I think it would be good for him to feel the rush of The Show. He'd then have several months to think about it - about what he needs to do before April. That's my read. 2. Because Plouffe is an average bat and glove. I think Sano is already at his level as a MLB talent, with a significantly higher upside with experience. I understand that's all speculative and debatable. But the fact that Plouffe has been*lackluster is not 3. Better players improve a team's chance of winning.

Do you consider any other statistics of value? Because I'll be honest I'm not sold on strikeouts being the sole harbinger of success in the majors. I'm actually glad you brought up Trout again. The young man got 40 games in the bigs as a 19-year-old in 2011. He didn't do spectacular, of course, but I wonder what he would say now about the experience. Certainly didn't hurt him going into 2012

I answered that actually. Again, I reject the empty question of whether he's "ready." My position is that a taste of The Show will help Sano's development this offseason, and that Sano's also the best 3rd baseman in the organization - giving the team the best chance to win this September. All if that is debatable, of course, but "you don't know everything" isn't a very strong rebuttal.

Well as I've said in the past, I think "is he ready for the majors" is the wrong question. For players on Sano's level it's impossible to know pre-promotion, and more importantly, it's an empty question. Ready for what? The only two questions are (1) will a promotion help or hurt Sano's development, and (2) will he help the Twins win? (One could argue fan interest is also important, but I disregard that.) As I've said many times, I believe he'll benefit from a taste of the MLB experience this offseason, and I also believe he's the best 3rd baseman in the organization. But my opinion isn't worth squat. So considering the article that sparked this thread, the topic is September or sometime later. If you want to frame that as "is he ready," then I guess we're on the same page. We're also on the same page with stats. Of course they don't tell the whole story, and subjective scouting plays a role. But let's not pretend that stats are just some small part. Saying that Sano's success "means nothing" and there's "literally no way" you can speak to his chances in the MLB is absurd. Lastly, you're still comparing prospects. The issue is not whether Sano will ever live up to his potential/ranking, it's whether he should come up in September or sometime later. Delmon is an apt comparison in some ways since he came up at age 20. But I again pose the question whether you think that affected his development. (And compare with those like Moustakas who didn't get the nod until age 22.) Another comparison to Hicks is nauseating. If the Twins judgment is the comparison, then that points to calling up Sano immediately because they apparently blew the call on Hicks. Maybe it's time they pulled a Costanza.

The issue is not whether Sano will "struggle" as a MLB player. It's also not about rankings. The issue is whether a promotion will hurt or improve his development - what helps him reach his potential at the MLB level. Brooks was showing the class he's in as far as potential. Seeing Sano's numbers should cause you to immediately disregard any comparison to Hicks, Gibson, or any of the good (but not elite) prospects that have come through the Twins organization the past dozen or so years. Because Sano is in a different class, let's compare him to that class. Was Delmon Young's potential hindered by being called up at 20? Maybe, but it wouldn't be hard to argue that his limitations were only hidden at the MiLB levels. What about the Uptons who were both called up at 19? Better or worse if the had another 1-2 years in the minors? Moustakas isn't even in the conversation because he got called up at 22. (Did waiting hurt his development? - let's turn it around.) With the big 3 (Trout, Harper, Machado), it's really hard to argue that they needed more time, but then again we don't know yet if they'll reach their potential - Trout excluded I guess after last year's gem. Maybe bringing them up at 19/20 was a mistake? You're comfortable just trusting some subjective "he's not ready." Okay. But I submit that we'll never know the answer to two important questions you posed unless he's given the opportunity. In turn I prefer being "aggressive" because I just don't see the downside. I have no worries whatsoever that Sano's confidence might break, or that somehow he'll develop bad habits that can't be remedied. Again, Sano's an elite prospect with success at every level he's played - not Hicks!

If your hypothetical actually suggests a comparison between the minor league careers of Aaron Hicks and Miguel Sano, and in turn whether Hicks serves as a useful guide, then absolutely not.

Of course a 27-year-old Sano (~155 games) is a much better option than a 21-year-old Sano (~35 games) (Although keep in mind some have suggested bringing him up in June - hence my 1/3 of the year comment.) But that's a false choice. The "aggressive" route does not prevent the Twins from having Sano until he retires. Your hedging your bets thinking the team will save X number of dollars in the future by playing the waiting game now. Okay. A legitimate alternative is that it won't make a bit of financial difference 6 years down the road whether Sano begins his MLB career this September. There are just so many variables in play between now and then that it's a fruitless exercise. Another difference of opinion we may have is that I haven't conceded 2014. Related to that I firmly believe that a competitive team next year will reap rewards in 2015 and beyond. So I want the best possible team on the field, and then let the cards fall where they may. Not that I disregard your point. The ideal situation of course includes having Sano under an extra year of control. It's just not something that would drive my decision.

One thing everyone should agree on is that Aaron Hicks' MLB performance and/or career projection is irrelevant to Miguel Sano.