Michael Powell wrote - "There was a mellow quality to conversations with the Twins after their postseason finale with the Yankees on Monday night, a wistful pride at what they had accomplished before that 18-wheeler from New York City flattened them." Wow I can feel that!
"Rocco Baldelli, the Twins’ young manager, slid into his seat Monday night, having come out on the wrong side of a 5-1 score in the deciding game of an American League division series. He shrugged. His team had just lost its 13th consecutive playoff game to the Yankees, a record of futility that extends to the early days of this century. “To be very blunt about it, they probably pitched a little better than us,” Baldelli said. “They probably swung the bats a little better than us and defended better than us. We’re not going to run away from what just happened."
"The Yankees dispatched the Twins as a farmer puts down an old cow, clinically and with minimal fuss."
"When the end came near midnight, many fans had long ago streamed through the exits, and the Yankees celebration, the usual waste of industrial strength Champagne, had a perfunctory quality. “This was our absolute best effort,” Baldelli insisted before departing into the night. “Nothing got in the way of it.” Nothing except that Yankee eighteen-wheeler."
If you want to read more from Michael Powell - https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/08/sports/yankees-twins-michael-powell.html
Or there is the game summary article -
“We’ve got a really good team,” said Yankees second baseman Gleyber Torres. “We don’t feel any pressure.”
Compare that to our listless Twin quotes.
"The Twins became the first 100-win team to be swept in the first round of the playoffs since the 1980 Yankees were knocked out by the Kansas City Royals." Doesn't that make us feel good, we are the books with the Yankees.
"In a series that was expected to produce seesawing action between the two best home run-hitting teams of all time, the outcome was decidedly lopsided. The Yankees, who didn’t add major-league pitchers at the July 31 trade deadline, held the Twins to seven runs in the series." Yes we expected something too, like the series we had during the season.
"When the bases were loaded with no outs in the second inning, he got Miguel Sano to pop out on a 98-mile-per-hour fastball, and then struck out Marwin Gonzalez and Jake Cave on diving sliders." “That situation right there set the tone for the rest of the game,” Severino said. That situation also summed up the Twins approach - stikeouts do nothing, put the bat on the ball.
"“Today we played the best defensive game of all season,” said Carlos Mendoza, the Yankee’s infield instructor." And how was the Twins defense for this series?
"Three more outs were not nearly enough for the Twins to erase a four-run deficit with Aroldis Chapman on the mound. The Yankees’ closer allowed a two-strike leadoff single to Marwin Gonzalez and walked C.J. Cron, but that was all Minnesota could muster. Chapman struck out Max Kepler on four pitches — getting three consecutive sliders past Minnesota’s leadoff batter — got some serious help on a diving catch by Gregorius on a liner by Jorge Polanco and finishing things off by freezing Nelson Cruz with a 99.4 mile-per-hour fastball for a called strike three, and the ballgame, and the series."
Here is the full game summary it you want to suffer through it https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/07/sports/baseball/twins-yankees.html?nl=todaysheadlines&emc=edit_th_191008?campaign_id=2&instance_id=12775&segment_id=17677&user_id=df677009e65a80ff046d9aedfdc120f5®i_id=275511921008
I wondered how the New York Press would describe game 2 - here are some key quotes - and I cannot disagree with any of them:
"Dobnak’s short outing was fairly predictable. A recent Uber driver against this lineup? Rather optimistic of the Twins. The last Twins rookie to start a game in the postseason was Brian Duensing at Yankee Stadium in 2009. Duensing gave up five runs in four and two-thirds innings and his father was hit by a car outside the stadium (he was O.K.)."
"The Yankees did not homer off Dobnak, but they wore him down with hard-hit singles and doubles. Twins Manager Rocco Baldelli hooked Dobnak after the Yankees loaded the bases with no outs in the third inning and turned to Tyler Duffey, a reliable reliever during the regular season. But Duffey was no better against the Yankees’ buzz-saw of a lineup, which began to pile on the runs."
"The best-of-five series will shift to Minneapolis on Monday, with the Yankees one win away from clinching a berth in the A.L. Championship Series. And if the Twins cannot neutralize even the Yankees’ struggling hitters, they have little hope of extending their postseason."
If you wonder what they wrote after game one - "Yankees fans, spoiled by 27 World Series trophies, might be frustrated by their team’s decade-long drought without adding another title. But consider the plight of Minnesota Twins fans when they learned of their team’s first-round postseason opponent. The Twins, who last won a World Series in 1991, have been eliminated in five of their six previous recent playoff appearances — in 2003, ’04, ’09, ’10 and ’17 — by the Yankees. In 15 postseason games between the two teams before this year, the Twins had won only twice — the first games of the American League division series in 2003 and 2004."
"Interspersed between the blasts and runs, the dawdling game, which lasted 4 hours 15 minutes, featured 11 total relievers as both managers tried to navigate through the other’s potent lineup."
I have nothing to add - let's just start by ending this losing streak! A moral victory is at least a victory.
By nature we often remember the really good or really bad things, and not the okay or decent things that someone does. I bet you can vividly remember the last time you won an award, but perhaps not the last time you went to the grocery store, or who your 10th grade history teacher was.
It’s a core principle to how memories are formed. Those that stand out are often fueled by the emotional context the situation derives from.
Say me for instance, I remember when Adrian Peterson nearly clipped the 2,100 yards or when Jason Zucker beat the Blackhawks in 2013, and conversely when Blair Walsh's epic failure from 27. These were momentous occasions to me personally, and culminated milestones of jubilee and heartbreak with lots and lots of backstory.
Why is that such an important thing to consider when discussing the plight to Jose Berrios? It’s these disaster moments to fans in a season, where we can get way over our heads and make truly outrageous statements, and during the offseason in retrospect be like ---”Did I actually say that?”
He began the season on a pristine pinnacle. Logistically, Jose was exerting his mechanical best in how he was driving through his hips along with his delivery, and keeping his hands back in sync with driving those hips, which was a bad tendency he would commit in his youth.
You can in the video how the different the glove placement is imperative to gaining that 2 to 3 ticks in velocity to the plate. In hardcore pitching circles they call this the kinetic chain, where the components of one’s mechanics are at an equilibrium, where the joints are in a symphonic harmony, making it all a simplistic, clean, and efficiently repeatable delivery.
And Berrios looked really good. He proved with the results to bear, and added a new wrinkle into that much anticipated pitch mix, the changeup. In that 2019 opening unveiling we saw the changeup being fruitfully showcased 12.5% of the time, more than his total the previous season (9.1%) and the cumulative average during his very short career (10.7%).
He wasn’t deliberately delaying his arm speed, and everything in that start was sublime. Pristine. You could say Berrios was perhaps an “ACE” in that start had things not turned sideways and pearshaped just a handful of months later.
Now fast-forward to today. Fresh or perhaps rotten from that second consecutive all-star appearance, Jose Berrios is showcasing his most agonizing and problematic struggle points of his career. He’s been hittable, hit very hard with declining velocity, and to boot; seemingly single-handedly taking baseball’s 3rd best offense (in wOBA and wRC+; .348 and 115 respectively) out of critically important games.
What’s even more frightening? That the strength of the opposition over the past 4 games has sported a 91 wRC+, with 100 being league average. He’s struggling mightily against bad opponents, compounded with the fact that they shouldn’t be hitting him this hard, period.
So far, we as all seperate pitching expert entities haven’t found the culprit to what hindering subset of pitching statistics is responsible for pruning our Johan of today, devoid of the attributes that made us reminisce of Johan, the great killer of men, sheep, and those brave enough to step into the battered boxes of right and left.
But jokes aside, what’s really been the inhibitor to Jose’s velocity and coincidentally his release point since his dynamic beginning?
Let’s zoom into one of his particular starts, this one against the Indians on June 6th as the start to our inquiry.
In that one start, Berrios didn’t feature the curveball that we have become expected of. He would throw a whopping 25.4% changeup, nearly double his career-total and triple his season percentage to that point. But something interesting of note lied in that changeup subgrouping.
In that start he would throw 27 changeups of his entire 107 pitches in those 6 strong innings. Only one ball was hit harder than 85mph, and here’s a mapping of those pitch velocities with their extensions metrics.
Notice anything weird? For a guy throwing from an average release point of 6.5ft away from the pitching rubber, the extensions point were remarkably scattered and the changeup release points also dropped, along with the average pitch velocity.
Increasing extension would typically incite would velocity, (Josh Hader’s extension would come in mind) and it’s a very peculiar trend into Jose’s portfolio.
If we critically analyze even more into Jose’s pitching approach, we wouldn't have anything particularly striking about his movements.
Berrios has a unique windup, something of another other beast where he utilizes his windup as a vehicle to increase the movement and velocity of his pitches. Whereas others use their windup as a balancing point or to find their zen, Berrios uses his windup like a stress ball where he curled himself into a ball, and breaks out of the ball in smooth rhythm to swing his front side and lurch the back end, and launch the pitch.
Looking at the progress he’s made since his debut, where his arms and legs need a lot of refinements, he’s made noticeable and encouraging strides. When he was young he would treat his arms and legs as separate mechanism, and he now manages to keep his core in rhythm and not out of motion with his elbows, knees, and front stridding foot.
So nothing abundantly different with the windup, and not that much difference in the general technique with his hand placement, etc.
Berrios, technically speaking hasn't changed anything with the conducting of his delivery, until Glen Perkins spoke about it during Jose’s latest start. I’m paraphrasing what Roy Smalley said during the game, but here’s what he said:
“This is what Glen Perkins was talking about in the pregame shows, where (Jose) coils up and then has to uncoil and gets way spun around and his arm either lags or he’s gotta really rush to catch up, and that’s what happens when you spike that curveball….. And just you’ve opened up way to quickly and your arm just whips around.”
“They are trying to get (Jose) to alter his mechanics a little bit, but he’s very rotational and he gets really turned around and can’t get his arm back through, so when his hips come way around behind him he coils up, and his arm has to speed up to catch up. That’s why you see so many fastballs up and into lefthanders, and spiked breaking balls.”
You can see that his windup is almost, where he isn’t riding with the energy generated by his windup as much and through that back heel, that the great Parker Hagemen discussed during the offseason as a foundation through building and sustaining velocity. We can see the locked back leg not pulling through, anchored and dragging his weight in a counterproductive direction. It’s slinging and stopping, preventing him from riding through that back leg and pulling in his follow through. It’s a sign of stress and unease to rip through, as young pitching are taught today to rip through with elastic bands at data driven developmental programs. You can see the lazy back leg grappling with the front side and the glove holstered to his side, almost as if he’s more location conscious then ripping the back leg through for the additional ticks of velocity he needs to be at his best.
This looks more like a fatigue and midseason swoon related dilemma than a mechanics dead-gone disaster, but the velocity problems and mechanical technique are very much redeemable.
Additionally I wanted to dive into more of what’s causing the lower arm slot, and perhaps an aggravator of the lower velocity readings and the dropping of the arm slots.
This graphic below shows the release points of all of Jose’s pitches horizontally since the beginning of the season. I postulated the changeup he’s been throwing has played role in why the release point has waned lately, so I consulted with two acute baseball minds to at least minimally come to a conclusion.
Through some research and conspiracy thinking, changeups might play a part in cannibalizing fastball velocity. Now take with a grain of salt, but changeup reduces fastball velocity for youth pitchers, and Paul Nyman theorized that an intentionally manipulated change for sink and drop would lead to fastball velocity dropping.
Coupled with the fact that Jose played with the changeup in the Cleveland start I spoke of, and that his deviation of his velocities are so wide, maybe the changeup is playing with his repetiore and his mehanics. It’s certainly cause for concern given that the more he’s thrown his changeup the more his velocity as dropped.
So I talked with Bill Hetzel, Manager of Mechanical Analysis at Driveline and Analysis, and former pitching coach and Michael O’Neal, former pro-ball pitcher and Driveline pitching trainer, and now SIUE baseball assistant coach about the changeup possibly curtailing Jose’s potential.
ME: Hey Guys. I was recently diving into a pitcher (Jose Berrios), and just wanted to ask that if….. say a righthander where to increasingly lower their arm slot, which just so happened to coincide with an increase in spin rate and decrease in velocity, would you say an increase to using a changeup could be a detriment of this?
I look at some of the side effects of short-arming a changeup (like slinging from the side) and couldn’t find anything, but I did however find that Jose’s changeup spin rate has increased. Do you think that a lowering of the arm slot on a changeup and an increase in spin could lead to decreased velocity? Or perhaps the lowering of arm slot could increase spin in general?
Michael (Former MLB Player); It depends on the guy, but lowering the arm slot would help to create more sidespin on a changeup, which also would increase horizontal movement on the pitch. Jose’s arm slot might also be more natural for him which could be an increase in spin rate.
Bill (Driveline Pitching Analysis Expert); Unfortunately you can’t (increase spin on arm slot) when it comes to increasing spin rate. Raw spin rate that is, there is not anything definitive that has been found to increase it outside of the use of foreign substance.
Michael (Former MLB Player); Me personally, I have the same tendency when I try to “get on top” of my fastball. I laterally trunk-tilt more causing a higher arm slot. This also negatively impacts my spin rate. When I stay taller and don’t tilt so much (unlike what Jose has been doing), my spin rate increases and also causes my arm slot/release point to be lower on the Z axis.
Bill (Driveline Pitching Analysis Expert); Now increasing true spin is different. Pitchers increase true spin all the time by improving spin efficiency. In terms of a change up you ideally and in most cases want to kill or decrease spin. Most changeups, whether it is a circle change or a split type change are trying to kill total spin, kill lift on the pitch to create separation from the heater and kill velocity. I would have to look at Berrios’ pitch metrics to really tell you anything in regards to arm slot changes or spin total changes. Traditionally a change up is predominantly side spin. The spin direction or spin axis for a righty usually needs to shift in the direction of 3:00. Sometimes pitchers won’t have a good feel for how to do that so they will manipulate theirs arm action or arm slot to try to get there instead of pronating the pitch more to create that side spin. In the case of Berrios and knowing how exceptionally good Wes Johnson is with utilizing Trackman data, I’m sure Wes has him trending in the correct direction at the very least.
Michael (Former MLB Player); (It) Depends. A laggy arm could be possible, BUT better changeups have a fast arm speed. Also though, his changeup could play close to the 2 seam fastball, so hows his usage on the 2 seam changed?
So that was the end to this conversation and the article. I hope you enjoyed. As far as what I would expect the Twins to do, we saw earlier in the season when Michael Pineda’s velocity was hitting a rough patch so they placed on the DL. I could conceivably see Rocco buying some time by giving the duo of Lewis Thorpe and Devin Smeltzer a start against the lowly White Sox and Tiger on this coming road trip, and perhaps recharge the rotation (Gibson and Odorizzi velocity has been down lately). Wes Johnson in the splendid piece by Dan Hayes of the Athletic during a makeup interview of his sudden unavailability, said something of significance.
“We’re getting him back on his heel and trying to get him to rotate, get his chest velocity back up,” Johnson said. “It’s not just to get José to survive. We want more of the start against Chicago that he had when he was 94 mph and was dominant. Or even you go to the Miami start when his velocity was down a little bit. The pitch execution was through the roof for seven innings.
“Our focus isn’t to find a way just to get this guy through. We have to try to get him better every time he goes out.”
Which again corroborates with what Wes has done with biomechanics velocity induction. If you want to read more, I would encourage you to read this.
Just throwing this out there: Is the Twins' front office actually maybe kinda sorta mad that the team is playing so well?
Obviously, this seems preposterous on its surface, but bear with me for a moment.
Falvine nailed it with almost every FA acquisition made this offseason, with most of the signings being short-term guys at spots the Twins have heralded prospects coming up behind them. Schoop= Lewis/Arraez/Gordon etc, Cron/Cruz=Rooker/Kirilloff, Perez=Graterol/Gonsalves, and so on.
If these guys were performing as well as they have been this season, they would all be valuable trade chips at the deadline to help strengthen an already-strong minor league system. However, their play has contributed to 50 wins well before the All Star break, putting the Twins in an interesting position.
Should the team continue racking up wins, there is a good chance most of these guys will be allowed to walk after the season is up, and the Twins will get nothing in return. Can you really see them giving Schoop or Cron a long-term contract when they could call someone up from the minors at a much cheaper price?
I wonder if the front office isn't actually a little unnerved that the team is playing so well, much like 2017 when they probably wanted to get rid of Molitor but they improbably earned a Wild Card spot.
It's been exactly one week since the Twins last off day, an unplanned off day prompted by a wet field in Los Angeles, so now is a good time to assess what has gone right, and what has gone wrong for the team since then.
The Good A 5-1 record since the last day off. Simply put the Twins have been mashing in that time with a convincing win over the Angels, a sweep against the White Sox, and a well-played 2 game split against one of the National League's best teams the Milwaukee Brewers. In those 6 games, the Twins have outscored their opponents 51-23, Max Kepler has collected AL Player of the Week honors, and have increased their divisional lead from 7 games to 10 games. Obviously when you have that record a lot has gone well, but starting pitching has to be the biggest plus in those six games. Starters allowed just 7 earned runs in 36 innings in this time.
The Bad Although the team has been playing well, there has been some rough patches, particularly for the Twins bullpen. Austin Adams gave up 5 earned runs while only recording 2 outs in the final game in Los Angeles. Luckily the Twins were up by 14 prior to Adams' appearance and would still win by 9. However, it led to Adams being waived and claimed by the Detroit Tigers. Adams' roster spot was taken by Zack Littell who pitched two clean innings against Chicago in the series opener on the 24th. The other bad out of the Twins pen is Taylor Rodgers being taken deep. Rodgers came into both games against Milwaukee and proceeded to give up a home run in both appearances. In the first game he gave up what would be a game winning 2-run shot to Orlando Arcia, and gave up a harmless solo homer to Yasmani Grandal last night. Of course this is not so bad if the team continues to have three-plus run leads, but Rodgers will be called upon in high leverage situation the rest of the way, and will need to find a way to avoid leaving pitches over the heart of the plate. Rodgers has been one of Minnesota's best relievers and I anticipate him finding himself again.
The Ugly The Twins have been bitten a bit by the injury bug as of late. Mitch Garver has been on the injured list with a high ankle sprain, but looks to possibly return this weekend. Nelso Cruz has taken his time returning from a sore wrist. Starter Michael Pineda was placed on the injured list yesterday with right knee tendinitis. Finally, center fielder Byron Buxton had a nasty collision with Target Field's center field wall last night and is currently listed as day-to-day with a bruised right knee. All of these things sound benign enough, but the Twins need to remain healthy to continue their torrid pace, and any sort of setback could drastically hurt the team especially a setback to Buxton or Garver who have been among the league's best at their respective positions.
