Riverbrian

Yesterday was a rough day for me. I have been fighting cancer for 5 years and this spring it had metastasized. I continue to fight every day. Up at 4:30 to do my stretch, strength and balance work followed by a 5 mile run. With that fight I feel pretty good and have a high energy level in spite of all the meds. Baseball helps keep me going. There are still many more games ahead of me and they matter so much more than a championship. That final Twins trade of Varland set off a trigger in me. We had Varland through 2030. While at a large family gathering as the news kept rolling that 2030 hit hard. The odds are against me that I will be around in 2030. Thinking of the Twins led me to thinking of my first grandchild due in January. I can handle missing the next championship but I got pretty choked at the thought of what I will miss with my granddaughter.
Byron, Ryan, Kody, Royce, Matt, Trevor, Brooks, Christian, DeShawn, Joe, Pablo, Bailey, Simeon, David, Zebby, Cole and Justin I appreciate your fight. No one can make it to the major leagues without fighting everyday. You have fought through slumps. You have fought through injury. We will need your fight more than ever now. To the rest putting on that Twins uniform. I appreciate you. You have fought hard for this opportunity. Use this opportunity to make your mark in the major leagues. Fight to get better every day.
Mr. Falvey and Mr. Baldelli I need you to put up a fight. Make every day matter. Make every game matter. I am counting on you. To the Pohlad’s, you have stopped fighting. This is a concept that I can’t grasp. Every day I wake up excited to take on the day and fight for the next. You wake up every day as owners of a Major League Baseball team. How can you not be driven to fight for their success? I don’t get it. I do appreciate what Carl did for this franchise and what your family did for the community but you have stopped fighting. Please step aside and let someone else lead this franchise.
We need a fighter because every day and every game matters. I will be watching.

I would sell off the expiring contracts this July but it isn’t a rebuild. I am going the 2024 Tigers route. They traded off four expiring contracts and let the players in their system have a chance to play. All four played significantly in their first half in #2 starter Jack Flaherty, lefty reliever Andrew Chafin, catcher Carson Kelly and Mark Canha. They replaced Flaherty with an opener and Tyler Hilton and Beau Brieske emerged. Brant Hurter was the lefty reliever. Spencer Torkelson returned from his exile to the minors and had a .945 OPS in August. Dillon Dingler got his feet wet at catcher. I am guessing the plan was to see what they needed for 2025 but it resulted in a couple rounds of playoff baseball.
That means we trade Willi Castro. That will hurt. Not Jack Flaherty hurt but it will hurt. Keaschall will be returning and let’s look at Austin Martin.
We trade lefty specialist Danny Coulombe. That will hurt. The bullpen is very thin. Everyone is healthy and two on the current roster don’t look to be major league ready. Is it time to see Connor Prielipp in a relief role? Maybe not. The plan for a full healthy season is a priority. If not then Funderburk gets off the shuttle and gets a two month consistent shot.
Can they get anything for Paddack? Take what they can get and make sure Festa, Matthews and Woods Richardson have a spot in the rotation the rest of the year.
Can they get anything for France? The return for Canha was little but the open spot gave a chance for Torkelson to earn back some trust. Maybe Clemens gets a good share of 1B. Maybe Julien returns here. What does Keaschall look like at 1B? Miranda’s last stand?
It might mean paying some of the contract for Vazquez but let’s do it. Let’s see Mickey Gasper at  catcher for two months. Teams will run against him. In AAA he gives up a stolen base every 6.5 innings while Camargo is one of the best and gives up a stolen base every 9 innings. It amounts to an extra stolen base every three games. Can his bat make up the difference even if it a stolen base per game at this level? Let’s see about the rest of his game at catcher. Marco Raya had some very positive things to say about Gasper behind the plate.
Bader will hurt too. Will Rodriguez be healthy? Probably not. That leaves an opening for Carson McCusker or Walker Jenkins. They might also send out Keirsey now and bring up Martin. Get Keirsey some at bats for a few weeks and maybe he gets a real shot with the bat when he returns.
Anyone else? Justin Topa is not matching his 2023 season. I would trade him. The bullpen already has holes to fill today. Maybe the return for some of the other players is a failed starter or a blocked minor league reliever they give a chance in the pen for the final two months.
Why not rebuild? There are a few reasons.
The largest is I want the new owners to be able to shape this club. If they want to go for it in the next few years they need Joe Ryan, Jhoan Duran and to a lesser extent Griffin Jax. Selling this players is easy. New owners wanting to replace them will be hard. The new owners need to be able to set the direction.  The sweet spot for selling is the deadline with 1 season remaining. They have two. The return for them will not be that much less next summer and it gives the Twins a better chance to compete next year. I suppose someone could argue that they may get injured. It is also true that the key prospect we get in return for them this year could get injured. There are some players they need to make decisions on to help build next year’s roster. Many have shown flashes in the majors and shown success in the minors. This winter’s decisions will be more informed if they open these 7 spots. I endorse the Tiger Plan

The Twins traded a year of control in the Berrios deal. Some are speculating his trading Ryan and his two additional years of control. What would it take for that deal to work out?
The Twins traded Berrios with the current and next season of control. In those two seasons he gave the Blue Jays 1.5 WAR and -0.6 WAR.
Key elements to the deal
the Twins were clearly out of the playoffs and gave up the one extra year of control with a shot at the playoffs. they acquired two well regarded prospects. Martin had a future value of 50 and Woods Richardson a future value of 45. they replaced Berrios’ salary with Sonny Gray. Their 2022 salary was virtually the same but the Twins also had an additional season of control in 2023. Lopez salary slotted in to that top spot in 2024. The Twins received a comp pick for Gray and used it for Kyle DeBarge. Woods Richardson projected as a back end starter at an FV of 45 has fulfilled that projection thus far. He may outperform that projection if he approaches an average starter. Martin has not yet fulfilled his projection of an average regular.
Overall the Twins maintained that salary slot from Berrios to Gray to an extended Lopez. Had they extended Berrios they probably would not trade for Gray or choose to extend Lopez. The cost for that slot that Lopez now fills was a season of Berrios (replaced by Gray) and Chase Petty a 50 FV prospect. Would they be better off today with an extended Berrios and Chase Petty or an extended Lopez, Woods Richardson, Martin and DeBarge? I think they are better off with that trade.
Matching up the key elements
the Twins would be trading 3 possible playoff seasons of Ryan as opposed to 1. If they play themselves out by the deadline it would be 2. to give up that extra season of control and possibly 3 seasons of playoffs I would hope they would get significantly more than players with an FV of 50 and 45. Ownership needs to be committed to replacing Ryan as they were with Berrios The elements don’t match up yet. They should wait a year and consider dealing Ryan if they are out of contention next year. At that time hopefully the uncertainty of ownership will be cleared up and there will be commitment to replacing Ryan prior to the 2027 season. Better yet let’s hope Ryan is leading them to the playoffs in 2027.

Felix Hernandez RP 34 - Doesn't want to share crown with Aquatennial Queen of the Lakes
Josh Donaldson 3B 34 - Loons kinda freak him out
Jacoby Ellsbury CF 36 - No longer very good at baseball
Dallas Keuchel SP 32 - Concerned that North Stars fans still aren't over it
Edwin Encarnacion DH 37 - Weather too cold for imaginary parrot
Alex Gordon CF 36 - Retro baby blue uniforms clash just a little with all his Royal blue gear
Hyun-Jin Ryu SP 33 - Airport not close enough to the west coast
Ryan Zimmerman 1B - Feels like anyone who has been through Zimmerman, MN might not like him right off the bat
Russell Martin C 37 - Has heard a catcher is more likely to be concussed here
Wei-Yin Chen RP 35 - 6.59 ERA in 2019
Rich Hill SP 40 - He's 40
Ben Zobrist 2B 39 - He's 39
Martin Prado 3B 36 - Keeps alpacas in Texas
Mark Trumbo DH 34 - Isn't Nelson Cruz
Marcell Ozuna LF 29 - Sees how Rosario is treated
Nick Castellanos RF - Unbalanced schedule - doesn't want to have to go back to Detroit that much
Yasiel Puig RF 29 - Keeps fainting goats in 49 other states
Alex Wood SP 29 - Insufficient quantities of chiropractors
Trevor Cahill RP 32 - We've got a shot here
Brian Dozier 2B 33 - Never heard of him
Tommy Hunter RP 34 - Insists on being called Tommy, Lord of the North, and that just doesn't fly
Jason Kipnis 2B 33 - Doesn't like state fairs
Kole Calhoun RF 32 - Doesn't want to change his name to Kole Bde Maka Ska
Ivan Nova SP 33 - Longs to reunite with Pittsburgh
Starlin Castro 2B 30 - Likely to sign him and cash in when in gets to 2000 hits
Juan Nicasio RP 33 - Doesn't realize how many good restaurants we have
Todd Frazier 3B 34 - Would prefer not to be around so many lakes
Corey Dickerson LF 31 - Would prefer many more lakes
Jason Castro C 33 - Number of lakes is fine, but would like less fish
Pat Neshek RP 39 - Homecoming is possible
Andrew Cashner RP 33 - Friend of a friend has heard Minnesota "smells a little"
Jason Vargas SP 37 - Too many Jasons already here
C.C. Sabathia SP 39 - Too many C.C.s already here
Cesar Hernandez 2B 30 - Would never live up to Cesar Tovar's precedent
Jonathan Schoop 2B 28 - Never heard of him
Welington Castillo C 33 - Minnesotans would latch on to the "Beef" nickname too much
Dellin Betances RP 32 - Keeps ostriches in New York
Anthony Swarzak RP 34 - Homecoming is possible
Drew Smyly SP 31 - Look at all these free agents left
Derek Holland RP 33 - I honestly didn't think this bit would be this long
Mitch Moreland 1B 34 - Mitch Moreland? More like Mitch Lessland, huh?
Julio Teheran SP 29 - If he's not good enough for Atlanta
Fernando Rodney RP 43 - If he's still throwing, homecoming is possible
Jordy Mercer SS 33 - Is he related to Bobby Mercer?
Billy Hamilton CF 29 - Is he still fast?
Taijuan Walker SP 27 - Let's give it a try, Taijuan.
Sam Dyson RP 32 - I think this bit is over
Brandon Kintzler RP 35 - Yeah, it's over
C.J. Cron 1B 30 - Definitely over
Eric Thames RF 33 -
Steve Cishek RP 34 -
Steven Pearce 1B 37
Jedd Gyorko 3B 31
Pedro Strop RP 35
Kevin Pillar CF 31
Collin McHugh RP 33
Tyson Ross SP 33
Robinson Chirinos C 36
Arodys Vizcaino RP 29
Juan Lagares CF 31
Travis Shaw 3B 30
Yolmer Sanchez 3B 28
Danny Salazar SP 30
Justin Smoak 1B 33
Hector Rondon RP 32
Wilmer Flores 2B 28
Will Harris RP 35
Steven Souza RF 31
Jon Jay RF 35
Matt Adams 1B 31
Jarrod Dyson CF 35
Jimmy Nelson RP 31
Brock Holt 2B 32
Brian Duensing RP 37
Asdrubal Cabrera 2B 34
Addison Russell SS 26
Chad Bettis SP 31
Yoshihisa Hirano RP 36
Clay Buchholz SP 35
Wade LeBlanc RP 35
Lonnie Chisenhall RF 31
Shawn Kelley RP 36
Matt Duffy 3B 29
Nate Jones RP 34
Tony Cingrani RP 30
Hernan Perez 2B 29
David Phelps RP 33
Matt Albers RP 37
Justin Bour 1B 32
Matt Moore SP 31
Jose Iglesias SS 30
Martin Maldonado C 33
Jonny Venters RP 35
Craig Stammen RP 36
Jared Hughes RP 34
Edinson Volquez RP 36
Logan Forsythe 2B 33
Derek Dietrich 2B 30
Brian McCann C 36
Hunter Pence RF 37
Neil Walker 2B 34
Gio Gonzalez SP 34
Domingo Santana RF 27
Devon Travis 2B 29
J.C. Ramirez SP 31
Kazuhisa Makita RP
Francisco Liriano RP 36
Devin Mesoraco C 32
Tim Beckham 3B 30
Curtis Granderson LF 39
Kyle Barraclough RP 30
Chris Rusin RP 33
Luis Garcia RP 33
John Axford RP 37
Luis Avilan RP 30
Brandon Guyer LF 34
Ryan Tepera RP 32
Daniel Hudson RP 33
Matt Wieters C 34
Tyler Clippard RP 35
Brandon Maurer RP 29
Jerry Blevins RP 36
Robbie Erlin RP 29
Cory Gearrin RP 34
Ryan Buchter RP 33
Aaron Loup RP 32
Steven Wright RP 35
Jeremy Hellickson RP 33
Dominic Leone RP 28
Dan Otero RP 35
Bryan Hoay C 32
Cory Spangenberg 2B 29
Greg Bird 1B 27
Melky Cabrera LF 35
Kevin Plawecki C 29
Caleb Joseph C 34
Josh Phegley C 32
Nicholas Tropeano SP 29
Jose Lobaton C 35
Gorkys Hernandez LF 32
Adam Rosales 2B 37
Ervin Santana SP 37
Logan Morrison DH 32
Erasmo Ramirez SP 30
Matt Joyce LF 35
Adeiny Hechavarria SS 31
Josh Tomlin RP 35
Ryan Goins 2B 32
Jerad Eickhoff SP 29
Bryan Mitchell RP 29
John Ryan Murphy C 29
Xavier Cedeno RP 33
Tyler Saino SS 30
Cheslor Cuthbert 3B 27
Jesus Sucre C 32
Kelby Tomlinson 2B 30
Andres Blanco 3B 36
Tom Koehler RP 34
Josh Fields RP 34
Javy Guerra RP 34
Fernando Abad RP 34
Ronald Torreyes 2B 27
Guillermo Heredia CF 29
Tony Barnette RP 36
Gordon Beckham 2B 33
J.B. Shuck LF 33
Allen Webster SP 30
Michael Blazek RP 31
Cody Anderson SP 29
Josh Thole C 33
Pat Venditte RP 35
Ryon Healy 1B 28
Elias Diaz C 29
Matt Grace RP 31
Jose Pirela 2B 30
Dan Straily SP 31
Jesse Biddle RP 28
Edubray Ramos RP 27
Kevan Smith C 32
Trevor Hildenberger RP 29
Joey Rickard LF 29
Jacob Barnes RP 30
John Hicks C 30
Daniel Stumpf RP 29
Tyler Olson RP 30
J.T. Riddle SS 28
Aaron Brooks SP 30
D.J. Johnson RP 30
Jacob Nix SP 24
Ryan Burr RP 26
Rajai Davis CF 39
Carlos Gomez RF 34
Tyler Austin 1B 28 EDIT: I'm removing Tyler Austin from the list because dex8425 said he signed with a team in Japan, that it was a pretty good deal for Tyler Austin actually, and that dex8425 is taking any and all wagers that Tyler Austin will rake. Also, I read on mlbtraderumors or on a Doogie tweet that Tyler Austin's girlfriend preferred being near an airport in Japan, so we never had a shot anyway.
Kohl Stewart RP 25
Tim Peterson RP 29
Felipe Paulino SP 36
Hector Santiago RP 32
Eric Sogard 2B 34
Mike Morin RP 29
Homer Bailey SP 34
Blake Parker RP 35
Brian Schlitter RP 34
Brooks Pounders RP 29
Danny Hultzen RP 30
Caleb Frare RP 26
Thyago Vieira RP 27
Ryan Feierabend SP 34
Derek Law RP 29
Jim Adduci CF 35
Jason Adam RP 28
Rob Brantly C 30
Wilkin Castillo C 36
Rico Garcia P 26
Isaac Galloway RF 30
Humberto Arteaga SS 26
Oscar Hernandez C 26
Erick Mejia 2B 25
Deven Marrero SS 29
Ian Gibaut RP 26
Peter O'Brien RF 29
Jace Peterson 3B 30
Yadiel Rivera 2B 28
David Hale RP 32
Tom Milone SP 33
Josh Smith RP 32
Drew Gagnon RP 30
Fernando Salas RP 35
Joe Hudson C 29
Francisco Cervelli C 34
Austin Adams P 33
Joe Panik 2B 29
Ross Detwiler RP 34
Aaron Slegers SP 27
Zac Rosscup RP 32
Chris Owings 2B 28
Robby Scott RP 30
Juan Minaya RP 29
Brad Miller 2B 30
Charlie Tilson CF 27
Mike Gerber OF 27
Kris Negron RF 34
Edwin Jackson SP 36
Tyler Lyons RP 32
Buddy hers RP 32
Jonathan Lucroy C 34
Tim Federowicz C 33
Sean Gilmartin RP 30
Cameron Maybin RF 33
Rookie Davis SP 27
Donnie Hart RP 29
Sean Rodriguez 2B 35
Ricardo Pinto RP 26
Gabriel Ynoa SP 27
Yonder Alonso 1B 33
David Carpenter RP 34
Tayler Scott SP 28
Ryan Eades P 28
Matt Kemp LF 35
Pablo Sandoval 3B 33
Bobby Wilson C 37
Rene Rivera C 36
Nick Vincent RP 33
Juan Centeno C 30
Ryan LaMarre LF 31
Gregor Blanco RF 36
Chris Stewart C 38
Marcos Mateo RP 36
Erik Kratz C 40
Tim Collins RP 30
Jeff Bianchi 2B 33
Rubby De La Rosa SP 31
Josh Edgin RP 33
Jemile Weeks 2B 33
Travis Snider RF 32
Kila Ka'aihue 1B 36
Mike Zagurski RP 37
Shane Robinson CF 35
Cliff Pennington SS 36
Alex Wilson RP 33
Danny Espinosa SS 33
Ricky Nolasco SP 37
Logan Kensing RP 37
Dylan Axelrod RP 34
Johnny Giavotella 2B 32
Duane Below RP 34
J.C. can C 40
Chris Withrow RP 31
Nick Franklin LF 29
Rafael Lopez C 32
George Kontos RP 35
Seth Maness RP 31
Alcides Escobar SS 33
Grant Green LF 32
Neftali Feliz RP 32
J.J. Hoover RP 32
Wilin Rosario 1B 31
Chris Hatcher RP 35
Dan Runzler RP 35
Collin Balester RP 34
Brandon Beachy SP 33
Brandon Hicks 2B 34
Henderson Alvarez SP 30
Juan Jaime RP 32
Alex Torres RP 32
Robbie Ross RP 31
Drew Hutchison SP 29
Zach McAllister RP 32
Cole Gillespie LF 36
Stolmy Pimentel RP 30
Michael Martinez 2B 37
Dioner Navarro C 36
Logan Ondrusek RP 35
Stephen Pryor RP 30
Fernando Rodriguez RP 36
Ezequiel Carrera LF 33
Wilkin Ramirez LF 34
Emilio Bonifacio CF 35
Mark Rogers RP 34
B.J. Rosenberg RP 34
Justin Sellers SS 34
Moises Sierra RF 31
Scott Van Slyke LF 33
Josh Zeid RP 33
Zach Putnam RP 32
Shelby Miller SP 29
David Lough RF 34
Brad Boxberger RP 32
Hector Sanchez C 30

So much is being written and debated concerning MLB ownership’s unwillingness to spend on free agency, whether the big ticket guys like Machado and Harper, or more middle of the pack veterans.
 
(This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com)
 
The players’ union obviously got completely dominated in the last couple of rounds of negotiations over the Collective Bargaining Agreement. Limits on amatuer player signing bonuses, limits on international player bonuses and a completely ineffective policy on artificially restricting service time are all evidence of just how impotent the MLBPA has been.
 
Now, everyone talks about how baseball is broken, because clubs “tank” and justify it with fans as an effective way to “rebuild.”
 
But can anyone really expect things to change? Given the history of players failing to agree to act in a unified manner, can we really expect to see much change in the next round of CBA negotiations? In fact, it may already be too late for players to get their acts together by the time the current agreement expires following the 2021 season. Players can’t just wait until parties are sitting at the negotiating table. If they do, they’ve already lost.
 
There’s a terrific article by Michael Baumann over at The Ringer that describes just how difficult it will be for the players to make any progress in the next CBA and why a work stoppage might be their only recourse. He argues that players need to immediately start publicly calling out their ownerships for non-competititve practices. Putting their case in front of the fans, however, is just the start.
 
“But it’s not enough for players to win over the fans—they have to present a united front within the union as well. Whether deliberately or through extremely fortuitous coincidence, MLB teams have put financial solidarity above the desire to compete. But players are routinely encouraged to go above and beyond the strict call of duty in order to gain an edge over their competitors. Being the self-motivated, hypercompetitive folks that they are, athletes usually oblige, by accepting team-friendly contracts, putting in extra hours training, or agreeing to wear biometric monitors and trading privacy for a perceived competitive edge.”
 
Similarly, ESPN’s Buster Olney published a New Years Eve article (behind ESPN paywall) that disclosed content of a memo that Buster Posey’s agent, Jeff Berry, has been distributing that outlines some actions that players should consider taking to bring attention to the players’ issues and prepare themselves (and fans) for the upcoming labor battle.
 
Among the suggestions are what are known as “work to rule” actions, including:
Players refusing to report earlier for Spring Training than the contractually mandated day of February 23.
Players refusing to participate in non-contractually mandated team events such as fan fests.
Players and agents not attending MLB’s Winter Meetings.
Players boycotting MLB-owned media outlets, such as MLB.com and the MLB Network.

Berry’s memo also proposes that players take a page out of the front offices’ playbook, by funding, “a comprehensive study that analytically supports recommended guidelines for player usage for the stated purpose of maximizing health and performance, maintaining/improving tools and athleticism, and mitigating age- and usage-related decline. Basically, a reverse-engineering of the aging curves and usage rates that teams are currently weaponizing against the players.”
 
In other words, stop letting teams get all the benefit of statistical analysis, especially when the result includes practices detrimental to the players, such as the service time maninpulation that the Minnesota Twins did with Byron Buxton in September when they decided not to promote him, thereby assuring they would benefit from an extra year of his services before he becomes a free agent.
 
Berry argued that, “Front offices are praised as ‘smart’ when working within the rules to extract maximum performance value for minimal monetary cost. Shouldn’t players also be ‘smart’ and likewise make calculated decisions within the rules to maintain and extend their maximum performance levels at maximum monetary values?”
 
Obviously Berry and the authors of these articles are right. The only way the owners and front offices will discontinue the offending practices will be if they are forced to. And they won’t be forced to by the players politely asking for change at the negotiating table in 2021.
 
The question is, will players unify enough between now and then to take actions such as those being suggested?
 
Can you imagine your favorite Twins players staying away from Twins Fest? The established players already no longer participate in the Twins Caravan, but what happens to the caravans if NO players agree to participate?
 
Would minor league players also agree to stand with their MLB counterparts and not participate in Twins Fest and the Caravans… even though the union they’d be asked to support has done absolutely nothing to improve the plight of minor leaguers (in fact, often giving away concessions on minor league pay and bonuses in order to get more favorable terms for big league players)?
 
In the past, it has been almost impossible to get superstars making $20 million a year, veterans trying to get a couple extra million dollars and young players still under club control to agree on any unified strategy. They fight amonst themselves and, even when they can agree, they’ve failed miserably at getting the fans behind them. (Hard to imagine boycotting fan fests would help in that area unless, as Berry suggests, they get together to hold similar player-organized events.)
 
If players can’t – or won’t – do what’s necessary between now and 2021 to lay the groundwork for a more balanced negotiation with owners, it’s difficult to imagine the next CBA being anything significantly more competition-encouraging than the current version.
 
But if the players won’t do what’s obviously necessary to improve their situations, it will be hard to feel too sorry for them when they end up stuck with another half-decade or more of similarly one-sided business practices by owners.
 
The players have themselves to blame for the ownership practices they find offensive because they allowed their union to be steamrolled. If they allow it again, it will just reinforce how individually selfish and short-sighted they are and they’ll deserve exactly what they get.

I do not know how to make this case for TD except in this short blog. I love the ability to discuss, debate and disagree without antagonism.
​As you have seen and responded to - I am the anti Darvish guy, at least in years 3 and beyond and the likes and the responses have been wonderful. This is what a sight like this is best at doing.
 
I choose to be the contrarian and I have tried to express that as many ways as I can. Should I pull all of my statements together here?
​But that is not my point. It is the wonderfully civil discourse that has happened that really pleases me. Do I care if you all agree? No. I just want an ability to challenge the prevailing attitude.
​I want to say no without being angry or responding to your disagreement in an angry way.
 
All of the comments are spread throughout the various posts and dialogues and I have truly enjoyed every argument and challenge.
​Thanks to all of you and to TD.