System overview:
A lot changes in half a season. Royce Lewis finally departed the prospect list nearly 6 (six!) years after the team drafted him first overall in 2017. Edouard Julien and Louie Varland also lost their prospect status, weakening the high-end of the list despite a recent influx of incredible talent. Speaking of which…
Walker Jenkins! The Twins actually did it; they eschewed their conservative desires and simply took the best player available at number 5: a sweet-swinging high-schooler who drew incredible reviews for his makeup. You could probably write a book with the superlative ink spilled about Jenkins over the past few days, but there's a good reason for that: he’s a stud. He immediately gives the team a fascinating, dynamic top three of Brooks Lee, Emmanuel Rodriguez, and himself. He hasn’t even been signed yet, so let’s not get carried away, but it’s certainly an exciting time for the Twins system.
Which, I think, is the strongest it’s been in a few years. The team is now undeniably at the heart of the pitching movement, churning out and improving arms at a breakneck pace, making their pitching prospects that much more exciting. There are about four or five legitimately impressive arms in the system drafted in 2022, and with about 60 pitchers taken in this draft, a few more are certainly on their way. It’s madness. But it’s a good kind of madness.
I’ve done something different with this list. As you’ll see, batters and pitchers are separated—something I’ve always felt should be done given the differences between the two. This is especially true these days, as any arm with one or two interesting characteristics is millimeters away from breaking out; hitters don’t currently enjoy such an advantage. Here’s the list:
Hitters:
Brooks Lee, 22, 5’11” / 205 - SS
Now that Royce Lewis is finally no longer a prospect (for the first time since 2017!), Brooks Lee takes over as the best prospect in Minnesota’s system. There’s a lot to like in his tools; his defense isn’t consistently excellent at shortstop—he’s missing the kind of raw athletic force that, say, Carlos Correa possesses—but he’s nimble enough to make plenty of wow plays and could stick at the position in the majors. If not, he’ll be fine at third or second. The Twins appear dead-set on getting him reps here, as he’s barely started anywhere else in 2023.
Offensively, he’ll likely hit, but his bat isn’t bulletproof. He doesn’t own any one overwhelming attribute, but he does most things pretty well and should never embarrass himself with poor swing decisions. Overall, he looks a lot like Marcus Semien with a little less pop—but I will warn that the lack of consistent game power is a concern. Really, though, most knocks feel like extreme nit-picking for a 22-year-old holding his own at AA in his first full year in organized ball. He’ll be fine and should join the Twins sometime in 2024.
Emmanuel Rodriguez, 20, 5’10” / 210 - OF
Emmanuel Rodriguez is a lesson in two parts: one, that monthly stat-worrying over prospects is often foolish; and slack should be handed to players returning from major surgery. Rodriguez spent April and May striking out at Gallo-ian rates before deflating his whiffs to palatable levels; he’s punched out at a 25.5% clip since June started. And while that cutoff is as arbitrary as any, I think it’s clear that Rodriguez is far more comfortable at the plate these days than when the season started.
He still has laughable power as his swing-as-hard-as-humanly-possible approach yields monster homers and titanic bullets shot all around the field, offering welts to fielders who stand in their way. The whiffs will probably always be present, though, as he has a habit of running deep counts. If he continues to evolve, he could be the toolsy stud center fielder of the future for the Twins. The bust potential is high, though.
Walker Jenkins, 18, 6’3” / 190 - OF
Surprise! After blowing smoke around Jacob Gonzalez for a few months, the Twins took the sane route and drafted an excellent high school prospect. I’ll repeat the common refrain here; Jenkins could have gone 1st in any normal draft, and the Twins are deeply fortunate to have such an impact talent in their farm system.
It’s a little silly trying to rank recently-selected players alongside pros with hundreds of at-bats under their belt, but you have to put the guy somewhere, and I thought right behind Emmanuel Rodriguez was the best choice. I don’t really have a good reason for this choice; he can move up quickly with early success.
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Matt Wallner, 25, 6’5” / 220 - OF
The man who just cannot find a roster spot. Matt Wallner is the antithesis of Max Kepler: he’s going to swing hard, clobber a lot of baseballs, and play bumbling, clumsy defense in right field. We’ve seen his style of play work at times, as apparent by his little MLB playing time this year, but his extreme contact deficiency will spell ugly hitting streaks, and I worry what major-league pitchers are going to do to him once they become comfortable. Still, he rakes. His max exit velocity is already elite, and it’s not impossible to imagine an Austin Riley-like metamorphosis from hulking slugger to well-rounded nuclear offensive force.
Defensively, Wallner is going to cost the Twins runs. He may earn some back with his arm—a true bazooka that will vex greedy baserunners, or just keep them stationary in fear—but the dropoff from Kepler to Wallner will be obvious. Minnesota’s favor towards flyball pitchers, and their insistence on playing Kepler and Gallo may keep him hidden on the periphery longer than most have the stomach for.
Tanner Schobel, 22, 5’9” / 170 - 2B/3B
Tanner Schobel is something of a throwback to the 2000s Twins: a slick do-it-all infielder with above-average speed and a good chance at becoming a roughly 2 WAR player for more years than you realize. He’s even added more ISO (in a pitcher’s league!) as his extended play with Cedar Rapids has been powerful. The thump may not be a mirage; Schobel slugged .689 his sophomore season at Virginia Tech. He loads up like Eugenio Saurez, allowing the ball to travel a little further than most before the full power of his torque releases, usually in a punishing manner (to the ball).
Defensively, Schobel has mostly split time between second and third—his two most natural positions. He could potentially play shortstop, but that position has seen a lot of Noah Miller and Jose Salas, making it difficult for Schobel to earn playing time there. Overall, Schobel fits a likeable infielder mold that many good-to-great players have thrived in.
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Yasser Mercedes, 18, 6’2” / 175 - OF
An expensive international signing from a few years ago, Yasser Mercedes showcased a dynamic offensive profile in 2022 before completely falling off a cliff in his first taste of stateside ball. Was he a victim of untrustworthy DSL stats? Is this a fluke? It’s far too early to tell; for now he’ll stay stagnant in my prospect list.
Austin Martin, 24, 6’0” / 185 - SS/OF
Oh what a fall for Austin Martin. You know the story by now: his flaming college performance capitulated immediately after the Blue Jays drafted him, and now the Twins are looking to get him back in the groove. 2022 was almost a complete loss, but Martin flashed life in September, and had a respectable enough AFL to soften his fall from grace.
Frustratingly, an injury knocked Martin out of commission until a few days ago, when he finally popped back up on the Saints’ roster. A strong showing could earn him a quick promotion, as Royce Lewis is currently on the mend well until August; José Miranda took his place but could be shuffled if his bat doesn’t turn around. Hopefully Martin finds the minimum power needed to become a quality major-league bat, because his potential is of a classic two-hole batter, slashing hits across the field while stealing at whim.
Luke Keaschall, 20, 6’1” / 190 - INF
The Twins selected Luke Keaschall—an infielder out of Arizona State—with their second-round pick in 2023. Plenty of excellent alumnus call that college home, and Keaschall could join them soon, as he absolutely smoked PAC-12 pitching with a .353/.443/.725 slashline. We’ll understand Keaschall more as a prospect in time, so consider this ranking very loose; he could move up or down easily.
Noah Miller, 20, 5’11” / 190 - SS
Alright, I was probably wrong about Noah Miller. I grasped tightly onto his excellent strikeout-to-walk rate in 2022, but now that has evaporated, leaving a powerless, on-base-less profile only buoyed by his excellent shortstop defense. He added a tinge of power in 2023, upping his ISO almost .030 points up to .094, but that hasn’t been enough to save his hitting, and infielders who hit like this need a legendary glove to stick around in MLB for any serious period of time.
Noah Cardenas, 23, 5’11” / 195 - C/1B
I still cannot fathom why Noah Cardenas is not more well-received as a prospect. He’s hitting for a 129 wRC+ with the Kernels—as a catcher, mind you—after crushing A ball with similar vigor. His pop is more in doubles than homers, but he can take a walk like no one’s business, and that kind of plate control should translate well as he progresses up through the minors.
The bugaboo: his defense. The Twins know this, and often spell time at 1st and DH (although Andrew Cossetti’s presence feeds into this decision as well). We don’t have public catching defensive metrics, but Eric Longenhagen rated him a 30-grade defender, and I’m willing to believe in his assessment. Still, the Twins were able to turn Mitch Garver into a workable defensive catcher—and Ryan Jeffers wasn’t a lock to stay at catcher either—so it’s very possible that Cardenas follows those two and blossoms into an everyday player.
Danny De Andrade, 19, 5’11” / 190 - SS
We’re finally seeing Danny De Andrade playing in full-season ball and the results have been… whelming. He’s walked a fair amount, but the power is merely ok, and he’s probably not going to play shortstop long-term. Still, this is a 19-year-old; picking on him too much seems like an unwise decision. He should rise up this list further with time.
Jose Salas, 20, 6’0” / 191 - INF
At this point, it’s unclear what Jose Salas does well. He’s in the middle of a dreadful repetition of A+ ball in which his slashline is so porous that I don’t even want to type it out. You don’t need to look it up; it’s bad. Normally this kind of performance would take a player completely off the list, but prospect evaluators swore he was around a 45 FV player coming into the year, and I’ll offer some slack in this regard. It won’t last long unless something changes quickly.
Kala’i Rosario, 21, 6’0” / 205 - OF
It’s been an impressive rebound for Kala’i Rosario, who wandered the prospect desert after being selected in the 2020 draft. Once a pure power threat, Rosario has improved in each stat of his triple slash-line, giving him a mean offensive profile that Midwest pitchers haven’t figured out yet. He even sliced a few points off his strikeout rate.
Yet the hit tool remains shaky. There are major leaguers who can make it work with a swing-hard-and-maybe-something-good-will-happen approach, but it’s a wasteland of batters who pitchers figured out quickly; whether Rosario is any different will be seen shortly. He should see a promotion to AA soon, and his immense power could carry him to the majors.
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Andrew Cossetti, 23, 5’10” / 215 - C/1B
Andrew Cossetti mashed A-ball with a hilarious .330/.462/.607 slashline before the Twins showed mercy on poor Florida State League arms, sending the menace to Cedar Rapids. His offense has cooled, but he still settled into a firmly above-average performance—especially for a catcher holding a .262 BABIP. He often spends time at 1st also, perhaps signalling Minnesota’s thoughts on his ability to stick as a backstop, but the bat may be real, and that’s enough to make Cossetti an exciting name to watch.
Jose Rodriguez, 18, 6’2” / 196 - OF
Jose Rodriguez popped 13 homers in an impressive somehow-young-for-the-level DSL debut and is now hitting for a 93 wRC+ with the FCL Twins. Like Mercedes, the question regarding untrustworthy DSL numbers exists here, but I’ll give Rodriguez some benefit of the doubt considering his absurd youth and small sample of plate appearances at his new level.
Yunior Severino, 23, 6’0” / 189 - 2B/3B
This is now the third season in a row that Yunior Severino has mashed the ball; his profile still scares the crap out of me. He makes his bread with power and walks, but the walks have dropped off since he reached AA, and we’re left with a high ISO/high BABIP batting line that, to me, seems unsustainable outside the Texas League. Maybe that’s unfair, but there’s also probably a reason the team has been slow to send him to AAA.
DaShawn Kiersey Jr., 26, 6’0” / 195 - OF
Is this a toolsy outfielder finally breaking out, or an old-for-the-level batter picking on pitchers who don’t know any better? Who knows—and the truth probably lies outside my black-and-white dichotomy—but, there’s no way to say it any other way: DaShawn Kiersey Jr. is raking.
His season under-the-hood looks largely the same as 2022, save for a nearly .040 point bump in ISO, but Kiersey Jr. has already clobbered nine homers; it took him three minor league seasons after being drafted to hit his first longball. Throw in game-altering stolen base potential, and Kiersey Jr. is a compelling late-breakout outfielder who’ll need to claw past some other uber-talented players if he ever sees the majors. He’s blistered the ball since June started, turning in a .347/.407/.579 slash with seven steals.
Ben Ross, 22, 6’0” / 180 - INF
If you want a guy who can rake across the field, Ben Ross is your guy. He’s bopped 13 homers in a notorious pitchers league, all while playing at 1st base, shortstop, 3rd base, left field, center field, and right field (he played second last year, but not this year). Whether he’s adept at all these positions or merely a warm body capable of moonlighting at them will be seen, but the profile is certainly fascinating. He could probably catch if need be.
Misael Urbina, 21, 5’10” / 190 - OF
Misael Urbina is continuing his every-other-year pattern of not hitting. It appeared he bounced back nicely after a truly awful 2021 season, but not one number of his A+ slashline starts with a “.3” and, yeah, that’s not gonna play. The talent is still evident, but smooth sailing it has not been, and I worry that Urbina is not going to live up to the promise he showed in 2019.
Aaron Sabato, 24, 6’2” / 230 - 1B
It’s been a molasses-slow movement through the system for the 2020 1st-round selection. He hasn’t lived up to the hype he saw out of college, but—somehow—he’s dutifully earned promotions and usually turns in above-average performances after becoming acclimated to his competition. That’s not what you want from a 1st-round pick, but there’s still a very real chance Sabato can contribute to the major-league team.
Pitchers:
Marco Raya, 20, 6’0” / 170 - RHP
The recently promoted Marco Raya represents Minnesota’s best shot at a top-of-the-rotation arm. That isn’t to say that he’s a lock to dominate—and, indeed, undervalued arms like Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober have proven that the best MLB pitchers aren’t always the well-known guys—but, if anyone here is a betting man, Raya would be the favored horse. He attacks batters with an ideal vertical fastball and a pair of devastating breaking balls, known to bring hitters to their knees if they swing improperly.
Despite being over three years younger than the average competition at A+ ball, Raya smoked hitters, punching out nearly 30% of batters faced while chopping two percentage points off his walk rate from last year. It’s difficult to parse whether this was Raya just being plain better than these hitters, as the Twins capped his innings total in his starts at four, but the numbers are hard to ignore, and the team may be off-setting their conservatism with an aggressive promotion to the Wind Surge. The Texas League is known for hitting; good luck to Raya with his new competition.
David Festa, 23, 6’6” / 185 - RHP
There’s a strong argument for David Festa as the better pitching prospect, and, in the end, Raya won by a sliver. This is no knock on Festa; the Seton Hall product followed a now well-paved road set by the Falvey Twins, as he almost immediately enjoyed and sustained a four-tick velocity bump. The strikeouts soon came.
With effective offerings in his sharp slider and surprisingly effective changeup (surprising only in that every pitching prospect has a “developing” cambio), Festa has impressive peripherals at AA, even if the walks have trended up with subsequent promotions. He was recently added to the Futures Game roster, and could see time with the Twins in 2024 if the current glut of 40-man options prove insufficient.
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Connor Prielipp, 22, 6’2” / 210 - LHP
Almost a year after the Twins selected him, Connor Prielipp remains a mystery. He made exactly one start for the Kernels before hitting the IL, shuttled off to the grand nothingness that is the Twins’ prospect injury list, only evident through occasional tweets and whispers. The team finally ended his season, giving us 1 (one) start and no new knowledge on what Prielipp could become.
It’s frustrating given Prielipp’s potentially dominant slider; a healthy Prielipp could easily be one of the best prospects in Minnesota’s system, but he can now only claim a combined 34 ⅔ innings between his time at Alabama and in pro ball. What will eventually become of the 22-year-old is just as unclear as when the Twins drafted him in 2022.
Charlee Soto, 17, 6’5” / 197 - RHP
If you built a pitcher in a lab, this is what he would look like—6 foot 5 inches with a big fastball and yeah, you get the idea. Eric Longenhagen at Fangraphs described his heater as sink-oriented, which does differentiate him from your typical ride/carry guy so coveted by MLB teams these days.
Like Walker, ranking Soto is a fool’s errand. He’s even younger than your typical high schooler at 17, and I doubt we’ll understand Soto more as a prospect for at least a few years.
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Simeon Woods Richardson, 22, 6’3” / 210 - RHP
Disastrous. Following a minor stabilizing season at AA and AAA last year, Simeon Woods Richardson is imploding in 2023. His K-BB% is 3.7%, far far far below the ground level acceptable for even a below-average major-league arm.
This is nothing like the pitcher the Twins expected to receive in 2021—and he’s so far removed from his performance at any part of his minor league career that an injury is the only real explanation for his troubles. Minnesota pulled this same thing with Jordan Balazovic in 2022, allowing him to take drastic lumps while recovering from an injury, but at least Balazovic still had the Ks; Woods Richardson has nothing. With other arms clearly ahead of him in the depth chart, Woods Richardson’s path to the majors appears blocked, or at least heavily guarded.
Jordan Balazovic, 24, 6’5” / 215 - RHP
I think Jordan Balazvoic has been ranked differently in each list I’ve made, and I don’t think that’s a good thing. He has rebounded nicely from his putrid 2022 season, and parlayed a strikeout/walk oriented AAA performance into… a BABIP-aided 1.80 ERA over 10 major-league innings. No, I don’t get it either.
There’s legitimate upside, though, with Balazovic’s killer vertical fastball/curve approach that could transform him into the new Griffin Jax. That may be a disappointment from the height of his prospect days in 2018 and 2019, but Jax is a valuable piece on the Twins; hopefully Balazovic will be as well.
Blayne Enlow, 24, 6’3” / 170 (doubtful, but it’s what Fangraphs says) - RHP
Risen from prospect ashes like the phoenix of old, Blayne Enlow might actually be a major-league arm. After being DFA’d and left out to dry last year, Enlow remained a Twin, crushing AA while halving his walk rate and adding a few more strikeouts to the mix. The promotion to AAA came soon.
His time with the Saints hasn’t been as fruitful, but 17 ⅓ innings is a small sample, and I’m willing to bet on a future where Enlow can find an effective role in the majors.
Brent Headrick, 25, 6’6” / 235 - LHP
I still don’t really know what to make of Brent Headrick. He has a tremendous and a disastrous fastball, leading me to believe that he’s going to be a reliever long-term, not a starter. His height, odd arm action, and command should secure him a spot on the team in some capacity, but that fastball problem is dire, and it may not be easy to fix. Headrick gets a leg-up on other, similar pitchers because of his major-league readiness.
Cory Lewis, 22, 6’5” / 220 - RHP
One of Minnesota’s many interesting pitchers from the 2022 draft, Cory Lewis has been a buzzsaw. There’s nothing overwhelming about his profile, but he can command the hell out of his fastball and slider while occasionally tossing in a knuckleball, just for fun.
Lewis’ ordinary draft stock, and his status as a developed college arm makes it difficult to decipher his undeniable dominance; I’ll keep him here for now—right in the middle of the pitcher melee that separates the best pitching prospects in the system from the rest of the herd. This is not a slight. Minnesota has proven wise in turning arms like Lewis into quality major leaguers, so this isn’t your normal piece of the scrap pile of young pitchers.
Andrew Morris, 21, 6’0” / 195 - RHP
Andrew Morris hasn’t been as overwhelming as his 2022 draftee peers, but he owns a potential outlier offering, and that buoys his profile while making him a real prospect. The pitch? A carry-monster fastball that usually sits in the lower 90s but can scratch 95—something that Bryce Miller has proven can dominate by itself. Throw in a solid slider, and Morris could easily be yet another college breakout arm for the Twins.
Zebby Matthews, 23, 6’5” / 225 - RHP
Zebby Matthews tore up the Florida State League with Maddux-like dominance, creating an air of excitement around the Western Carolina University product, before a promotion to Cedar Rapids shot that down. His xFIP is still fine, but his strikeout rate plummeted. The rest of the season will tell us who the real Matthews is.
There’s still a lot to like in his profile; he throws six legitimate pitches with good control, and that alone could carry him to the majors. The cutter appears to be the critical offering.
C.J. Culpepper, 21, 6’3” / 193 - RHP
You could basically copy/paste the previous sentiments regarding A-ball dominance. C.J. Culpepper—no relation to Daunte, trust me—earned the second-highest signing bonus of any California Baptist University player ever (name me the two MLB players from that college without looking it up and I’ll give you five dollars) and almost immediately crushed his competition with the Mighty Mussels. A promotion to Cedar Rapids cooled his stats (in only two starts), so, again, Culpepper’s prospect status is unclear.
Still, a 27.9 K% cannot be ignored, and Culpepper soon could rise further up this list with more impressive starts.
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Alejandro Hidalgo, 20, 6’1” / 160 - RHP
I haven’t seen many pitchers like Alejandro Hidalgo. His command is either fine—with maybe a walk or two here or there—or it’s disastrous, completely wiping out his outing with four, five, six walks over a shockingly low inning total. When he’s on, he has a devastating fastball/changeup combo and looks lethal; when he’s not, duck.
Ronny Henriquez, 23, 5’10” / 155 - RHP
Entering the season as a dark-horse, hipster pick to carry important major-league frames, Ronny Henriquez has stumbled through a difficult season. An elbow injury was the first culprit, then he walked everyone and their mother at AAA, and a recent oblique strain knocked him out of commission for two weeks. He’s only allowed one run since returning, but the walks are still uncharacteristically overwhelming; he’ll need to fix that issue before he can rebound on this list.
Matt Canterino, 25, 6’2” / 222 - RHP
Matt Canterino has not thrown a competitive pitch in over a year. Given his injuries and missing innings, it would be a miracle for Canterino to become an effective starter; the bullpen is his likely future home. If shorter bursts can keep him healthy, he could dominate in that role.
Kyle Jones, 23, 6’1” / 200 - RHP
Yet another 2022 draft pitcher, Jones isn’t quite the strikeout artist seen in his peers, but he acquires groundballs at a hefty rate while keeping his whiffs and walks around league average. This looks like a vanilla, but safe profile that could earn him under-the-radar promotions to the system’s higher levels.
Before hopping into the list, I wanted to say a few things about this process: I started these writeups to kill time, but I’ve found them fun to write, and the community has responded with great support. My system lacks the professionalism of scouts, but I want to strive toward respectability; this edition is the one I’m most proud of. Previous write-ups lacked consistency, and I failed to consider crucial aspects of a player’s performance. Reminder: tier matters more than specific ranking.
Royce Lewis (Prev: 1)
I think Royce Lewis is a legitimate franchise-altering player with a greater potential influence than any other prospect. He still has questions—his ability at shortstop remains in flux—but no one can deny his aura, a baseball and personal sense innate in his spirit. He also hit like a machine before suffering his injury in 2022.
Brooks Lee (Prev: 2)
Brooks Lee could fall out of bed and hit. Since the last writeup, the 2022 1st round pick packed his bags for Cedar Rapids and—while still being younger than the average hitter at the level—has continued to hit. The switch-hitter is walking 9.3% of the time while striking out in just 17.3% of plate appearances. Is Lee a shortstop long-term? Probably not; his clumsiness at the position has already shown, but the bat is such a lock that his position barely matters. Lee could legitimately start at 3rd base for the Twins in 2023 if they desire to push him.
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Noah Miller (Prev: 3)
Noah Miller’s numbers have declined since his white-hot start, but I remain high on the 19-year-old for two reasons: he’s a virtual lock to play shortstop, which is rare and vital, and his hitting peripherals remain solid. The extra-base authority isn’t there, but his elite 15.8% walk rate and stomachable 23.5% strikeout rate reflect a deep understanding of the strike zone. The power should come later, but even if it doesn’t, Miller could stick around for a while as a glove-first shortstop; that’s a piece many teams could use.
Emmanuel Rodriguez (Prev: 4)
You could flip-flop Emmanuel Rodriguez and Miller without hearing a peep from me; the young outfielder steamrolled low-A with an athletic force unique amongst Twins prospects at that level. Naturally, he suffered a brutal knee injury that curtailed his season, but I don’t anticipate a drop-off for Rodriguez when he returns in 2023. Expect big things from him once he’s healthy.
Connor Prielipp (Prev: 5)
Professional baseball has still not yet seen Connor Prielipp on the mound, but that barely affects his prospect stock; the college lefty possesses immense “boom” ability if he can return from Tommy John surgery. He owns arguably the best slider of anyone drafted in 2022; his fastball is a plus pitch as well. There have been whispers—a tweet here and there—about Prielipp pitching before the season ends, but nothing is official yet. He will be a name to remember for 2023.
Simeon Woods Richardson (Prev: 7)
This is where I admit a past error in these lists: I failed to consider Simeon Woods Richardson’s league while evaluating him. The Texas League tilts towards hitters, so while Woods Richardson’s numbers looked fine, they reflected an impressive ability to thrive in a competitive context built to suffocate him. His play with St. Paul since his promotion proves this; the young righty made two excellent starts, showcasing an elevated strikeout rate of 34.3%. Woods Richardson should impact the Twins soon, and he may become a rotation staple for years.
Edouard Julien (Prev: 10)
The lack of support for Edouard Julien as a genuine top prospect is baffling to me; the French-Canadian is a walking machine with pop; do people understand how rare that is? August was another dominant month, as he slashed .290/.426/.473 with three stolen bases (and three caught attempts). Sure, he’s a defender in name only, but the Twins could stomach merely passable defense at 2nd base to go with a tremendous bat—they’re already doing that with Jorge Polanco. I earnestly think Julien could be the starting 2nd baseman sooner than later—or at least he should be.
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Marco Raya (Prev: 9)
Marco Raya only pitched twice in August—probably due to injury, but I couldn’t confirm this—yet, he remains a marvel through his raw stuff. “Electric” is the only word that can accurately describe him; his slider, curveball, and fastball possess desirable traits; whether he can put it all together is the big question. The Twins treated the youngster with kid gloves, so he will end 2022 with fewer innings than other, older prospects. Still, Raya remains a talented and intriguing arm.
Matt Wallner (Prev: 11)
I was low on Matt Wallner to start the season—even while he crushed the ball, his strikeouts always caused me to hesitate when considering his prospect status. What changed? Wallner has shaved points of his strikeout rate—it now sits at 26.9% in August, which I can live with. He’s still an on-base wizard and owns a bazooka out in right field; these tools add up to a volatile player, but one with more impact than I gave him credit for earlier in the season. If it all clicks, we’re looking at a consistent ~3-win player who could crack a few All-Star games.
Louie Varland (Prev: 13)
Like Woods Richardson, my failure to consider the context of Louie Varland’s league caused me to rank him far too low on these lists. Varland isn’t just a cute hometown kid story; the righty owns a deadly fastball that overpowers hitters and sets a strong foundation from which his other pitches can grow. Those secondary offerings remain iffy, but Joe Ryan has proved that a great fastball can lead to success early in one’s major league career while other pitches develop in the background. Varland has struck out 27.5% of hitters at AAA.
Yasser Mercedes (Prev: 19)
Of all the young players on this list, Yasser Mercedes possess the best chance of becoming a dynamic star; the 17-year-old—yes, he still needs an adult in the car while driving in the United States—lit the DSL on fire, stealing 30 bags while slashing .355/.420/.555. He played 41 games. If that’s a sign of things to come—and that’s a major “if” given his age—the Twins could have a future superstar.
Misael Urbina (Prev: 23)
Misael Urbina is growing into some power and looks like a much finer prospect because of it. In 2021, the athletic outfielder couldn’t find a double if someone pointed it out on a map, but he’s now slugging .506 with a slightly worse BB/K rate; I think both he and the Twins are ok with that. There’s still a lot of development in front of Urbina, but 2022 is an excellent step in the right direction.
Austin Martin (Prev: 6)
I’ve been downright mean to Austin Martin on these lists, and I think that needs a slight correction. He’s not a shortstop, and his lack of power still scares me, but you don’t see guys who walk about as often as they strike out every day, and he could carve out a niche as a super-utility guy in the mold of Nick Gordon. Such a role represents a step-down from his potential when coming out of Vanderbilt, but that type of player is still valuable for a major-league team. His drop on my list results from other players rising, not necessarily him falling.
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Brent Headrick (Prev: 15)
Brent Headrick spent all of August at AA and posted impressive numbers; he struck out 36.8% of batters against just a 6.3% walk rate. The lefty is creeping up on 100 innings pitched in 2022, and I imagine the Twins will strongly consider protecting him from the rule 5 draft after the season.
Jordan Balazovic (Prev: 8 )
Jordan Balazovic might be the hardest player to rank in the system; the righty crushed his competition in previous years, but AAA batters have taken him to town, and I have no clue what to make of it. August was another rough month for Balazovic, and I’m left wondering if his stuff fell off a cliff or if the team is forcing him to pitch through an obviously debilitating injury; batters have hit 16 homers against him in just 49 ⅔ innings.
Cole Sands (Prev: 16)
I have a soft spot for Cole Sands; the righty commands one of the finest sweeping breaking balls in the system, and his new split-change could aid him against left-handed batters. Unfortunately, a right elbow contusion halted his great run in the majors, but he’s set to start a rehab assignment soon. The timing of his injury could not have been worse as Sands had pitched seven scoreless innings with eight strikeouts since re-joining the Twins in August.
Ronny Henriquez (Prev: 17)
On the surface, Ronny Henriquez’s 2022 season looks like a disaster; the righty owns a 5.79 ERA after all, but promising signs are hiding underneath the surface; he’s a 22-year-old with very little professional experience coming off a month where he punched out 28% of batters. I think the Twins will sit on him for a while, instead choosing to let Henriquez develop at AAA for most of 2023 before giving him the call.
Noah Cardenas (Prev: 21)
Much like his Noah brethren—the one with “Miller” as his surname—Noah Cardenas represents my favorite kind of position-playing prospect: a lock at a demanding defensive position with a chance to provide above-average value through their bat. Cardenas is smoking A ball as an old-for-the-level hitter—he’s walking more than he’s striking out—so the real challenge will begin once he sees more advanced pitching. For now, he’s a great piece to dream on.
Jose Rodriguez (Prev: Unranked)
As a 17-year-old, Jose Rodriguez bashed 13 homers in 55 games in the DSL. Yes, we should all be wary of hyping up literal teenagers, but that total led the league, and Rodriguez did it as a well-touted prospect who also batted .289 with a palatable strikeout rate of 23.7%. Like Mercedes, Rodriguez’s development will be a slow burn, but his initial impression has been excellent.
David Festa (Prev: 12)
David Festa has cooled significantly since his excellent start to the season, enough, in fact, that it raises questions about whether he was playing over his head. The college arm had a great ERA in August (1.15), but a dreadful FIP (5.27) thanks to a mediocre strikeout rate and an inflated walk rate (20.6% and 11.8%, respectively). I believe he can turn it around—he’s younger than the average A+ pitcher—but September will be crucial for Festa.
Blayne Enlow (Prev: 14)
August was a fine month for Blayne Enlow; he worked almost entirely in relief, striking out 20.5% of hitters against a high but still palatable 9.5% walk rate. The move to the pen raises some eyebrows—is this a long-term move or perhaps a play to shuffle him upwards towards the majors quickly? I believe in the latter, so Enlow remains a well-regarded prospect.
Chris Williams (Prev: 20)
Hiding behind the word “interesting” is a soft move, but I’m not sure any other word can more precisely describe what Chris Williams is. The 25-year-old popped out of his bed one day earlier in the season, started mashing, and hasn’t slowed down since. A promotion to AAA has only fueled his fire as he’s slashing .241/.368/.667 since joining the Saints and has hit seven homers in 17 games.
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Cody Laweryson (Prev: Unranked)
There’s something irresistibly intriguing about Cody Laweryson; the righty doesn’t throw hard and has never impacted major prospect lists, but his equal parts graceful and aggressive delivery has befuddled AA hitters. Laweryson carried a 2.13 FIP in August, buoyed by a monstrous 31.9% K rate; he split time as a starter and a reliever. It’s low-hanging fruit, but one is reminded of Joe Ryan when Laweryson is at his best.
Alex Isola (Prev: Unranked)
29th-round picks don’t usually stick around as Alex Isola has; the righty has more than held his own at AA and could find himself in promotion conversations soon. You don’t see catchers with a 12.3% walk rate and a sub-20% K rate too often.
Yunior Severino (Prev: 25)
Yunior Severino brewed as a prospect for years before annihilating A+ ball to start 2022; the Twins were so impressed that they promoted him to AA a few days after the start of August. The higher competition level has stifled Severino—the walks and strikeouts have each trended in directions hitters don’t like—but the sample is so small that I’m willing to overlook it for now. September will be an important month for Severino.
Alerick Soularie (Prev: 24)
Alerick Soularie was in the process of melting A+ ball pitchers in August before the Kernels suddenly stopped playing him halfway through the month. If he’s injured—and I don’t see another answer—then I hope it doesn’t steal too much playing time; Soularie is already an old-for-his-level hitter with serious strikeout problems; he needs at-bats.
Tanner Schobel (Prev: Unranked)
The Twins drafted Tanner Schobel in the 2nd round of the 2022 draft. He has all of 81 plate appearances, so judging him off his stats is unwise; he’ll need more time to marinate before his prospect picture becomes clearer.
Cesar Lares (Prev: 22)
Cesar Lares is a DSL statistical outlier to whom I attached myself and will refuse to ignore. He led the DSL in K% amongst pitchers with at least 40 innings (37.6%) and, I mean, that’s an impressive number! Lares just turned 19, so his early dominance is an encouraging sign; next season will be important for the lefty.
Aaron Sabato (Prev: 26)
I’ve been harsh on Sabato—perhaps unfairly; maybe justified—but I may need to change my tune; he has now twice bounced back from dreadful starts at a level to match expectations drawn from his 1st round pedigree. It’s been no different at Wichita; the righty’s slash line is unsightly, but he’s walked a hearty amount since his promotion (11.3%), and his BABIP is dirt-low. There’s a good chance he turns it around in September.
Jair Camargo (Prev: Unranked)
A number of players could have claimed this spot, but I chose Jair Camargo, the hitting machine. Camargo has slashed a lopsided .275/.320/.514 throughout a few levels of the minors in 2022, perhaps revealing legitimate power from the catching position. He’s still younger than the average AA hitter.
Two steps forward, one step back. The Twins have had a horrible season and they keep getting worse. I actually am speechless as to how bad they have become. There are lots of theories, ideas, frustrations, and trade talk, but there is a silver lining in the storm that is the Minnesota Twins baseball season: Josh Donaldson.
Josh Donaldson certainly has given us headaches since the beginning of the season. He left us in game one with a reoccurring injury that kept him out for weeks, and upon his return, he struggled at the plate, and also on the field. Injury or not, JD’s fielding has been something that needs serious improvement and has cost the Twins some serious defensive woes resulting in other teams getting runs. That doesn’t mean that he lost us the games, our offense needs to get better at the plate, but of his 112 chances, he had 36 put-outs. Comparatively, that’s not a terrible number considering other third basemen like Manny Machado have 34 and Jose Ramirez only has 4 more at 40. Third base is one of the harder positions to play in the MLB, but both Machado and Ramirez have more assists (84 and 86) to their team pushing them to being second in their leagues. With the Twins riding fifth place, Donaldson’s errors and lack of what would seem to me to be - a lack of full effort - is affecting the overall defensive performance of the team.
Offensively, he is showing signs of improvement. That’s not saying much given the status of the team, however, it is saying something for the 6’1, 210-pound third baseman who has been encountering more strikeouts and walks this season than actual runs. April may have been an off month to him given his injury agitation in the first game, making his follow through not as solid as it could have been. I am not giving him a pass for his performance, just a little empathy. As one of the power hitters coming from the Braves, his batting performance has been disappointing since making the transition to the Twins. Donaldson sure hasn’t been worth the money that the organization has been paying into him, making trading him (hypothetically) nearly impossible, but not totally.
Over the past two weeks, Donaldson has almost done a 180 from where he was not only at the beginning of this season, but last season. Even if he is getting an out, his swing is more consistent and he is making contact with the ball more than he did in April. He has managed to get on base more last month and into the first few games of June and get the Twins a few more runs bringing his average up to .256. In a time when the Twins are unable to secure wins against some of the worst teams in baseball, Donaldson seems to at least care about his offensive performance to bring in some runs. He is hitting in almost every game and leaving with no less than a single, double, RBI and lately homeruns, two alone in the June 3rd game against KC. It appears that Donaldson is finally comfortable with - or learning how to use - his swing. I no longer cringe when he comes up to bat. I understand that he may strike out, but I also have been impressed with the progress he has made while a lot of the team continues to digress. If he continues on this path, I would definitely like to see a little more “Rain” during the games.
