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  1. Twins Fan From Afar
    [Originally published at Twins Fan From Afar]
     
    [TABLE=class: tr-caption-container]


    http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-PJCnCcjGt5g/T5ShICdLmhI/AAAAAAAAASg/yzaETgGmm7w/s320/Rock+Cats+013.JPG


    [TD=class: tr-caption]New Britain fans have been treated to a lot of wins
    early in the 2012 season
    [/TD]

    [/TABLE]
    The minor league baseball season is just about 3 weeks old. For the New Britain Rock Cats, it has been a successful first few weeks. The team stands at 12-5, and is currently 1/2 game up on the Reading Phillies for first place in the Eastern League. Surprisingly, the Rock Cats have been better on the road, going 6-1, than they have at home, where they are 6-4. It is really over their past 10 games where the Cats have shined. They are 8-2 in that span, including a 6-game winning streak, and had won their past 2 contests before Sunday's game was rained out. I've attended 3 games (would have been 4 but for the rainout), and have been impressed with the on-the-field product.
     
     
    The Rock Cats have had several good performers on offense. I've been pleasantly surprised by Chris Colabello, journeyman first baseman who, at age 28, finally finds himself playing in affiliated baseball. After 15 games played, Colabello's slash line is .313/.414/.667, for an OPS of 1.080. In 48 at-bats, he has 4 home runs, 5 doubles, 12 RBIs, and has 6 walks and 6 strikeouts. Evan Bigley has also performed well. In 17 games, his slash line is .308/.361/.462. He's accumulated 1 home run, 2 triples and 2 doubles, and also has driven in 12 runs. He has 12 strikeouts to go along with 6 walks, and has stolen 1 base, but has been caught twice. Pedro Florimon has been a pleasant surprise. With a .306/.358/.435 line, 2 homers and 2 doubles, 4 stolen bases (having only been caught 1 time) and 7 RBIs, it's been a good start for Florimon. Unfortunately, he's struck out 14 times, while walking 5, in 62 at-bats, but he has played error-free defense at shortstop. Aaron Hicks has been good, but streaky. From having attended a few games, it seems that, on any given night, he either has it, or doesn't. His line is solid, though, at .276./362/.534, with 3 home runs, 1 triple and 4 doubles. He's driven in 10 runs, has struck out 15 times and has walked 9 times in 58 at-bats. He's committed one error in the field. Finally, there is Deibinson Romero. He's been in the Twins' system for too many years to be a top prospect, but is batting well this year. At .274/.338/.516, with 3 home runs and 6 doubles, the offense has been there for Romero. Unfortunately, the glove has been a little troublesome. He's committed 4 errors in 17 games. From what I have seen, it's mostly fielding, and not throwing, issues. Perhaps this is the year where he can be comfortable with his offense, and make a jump in his defensive ability? He does lead the team with 14 RBIs, so he's getting the job done in the batter's box.
     
     
    As you can see, these 5 players -- Colabello, Bigley, Florimon, Hicks and Romero -- have done considerable damage for the Rock Cats in only 17 games. Any lineup that has 5 core guys batting above .275, with a combined 13 home runs and 19 doubles in 17 games, is probably going to be pretty potent.
     
     
    Starting pitching has also been decent for New Britain. I'm still getting used to the way the rotation works in AA. Due in part to Jason Marquis' presence for a couple starts, and Alex Wimmers' recent injury, there have been several starters, 7, for the Rock Cats thus far: Lucas French has dominated at AA (and he should). In 4 games started, French is 2-0 with a 1.52 ERA, and a WHIP of 0.93. He has struck out 14, but walked 12 (6 in 5 innings on Friday) in 23 and 2/3 innings of work, so there is room for work on control. Steve Hirschfeld, in 3 starts, is 2-0 with a 1.06 ERA, and a WHIP of 1.05. He's struck out 15, while walking 4, in 17 innings. Lefty Logan Darnell is also 2-0. I saw him hitting 93 on the radar gun consistently in his start last Thursday night. In 16 innings of work, his ERA stands at 2.81, with a WHIP of 1.19. He's struck out 10 and walked 6 along the way. Andrew Albers has probably been the weakest starter, but has not been bad by any means. In 3 starts, he's 1-0 with a 4.05 ERA and a WHIP 1.05 in 20 innings. But wait for this stat: in those 20 innings, Albers has struck out 16 . . . and walked 0. No walks. So although Albers has given up too many hits (21) in 20 innings, if he can convert a few more batted balls into outs, that 7.2 K/9 innings ratio might start to make him more effective.
     
     
    The final interesting stat about Rock Cats starters is that not a single one has been charged with a loss. All of the 5 losses have been charged to the bullpen. This is not to suggest that the bullpen has been bad, because a few pitchers have been great in clutch situations. Daniel Turpen, in his first year with the Rock Cats, is already 2-0 with 1 save in 9 and 1/3 innings out of the bullpen. His ERA stands at 2.89, and he's struck out 9 while issuing no free passes. Similarly, Deolis Guerra has been excellent for the Rock Cats. In 10 and 2/3 innings of work, Guerra has a tidy 0.84 ERA, a 0.47 WHIP, and has struck out 10 and walked 1, picking up 1 save and 3 holds along the way. If this production keeps up, look for Guerra, who just turned 23 this past week, to not stick around in central Connecticut for too many more months.
     
     
    In sum, yes, it's only been 17 games -- just over 10 percent of the season schedule. But this core consisting of guys like Hicks, Colabello and Bigley on offense, French, Hirschfeld and Albers starting games, and Turpen and Guerra in late-inning, high-leverage situations, has worked out well thus far. This team will be even better when Chris Herrmann (.228) comes around and hits like he can, and when Wimmers re-emerges healthy and set to take a position in the starting rotation. New Britain is back in action tonight, beginning the first of 3 games at home against the Portland Sea Dogs, while their parent teams do the same thing. Let's hope for a bunch of Minnesota-New Britain success over their Boston counterparts.
  2. Twins Fan From Afar
    [Originally published with a couple pictures at Twins Fan From Afar]
     
    It was a beautiful evening for outdoor baseball in central Connecticut -- the kind of night where you might come wearing a t-shirt, but had better pack a hooded sweatshirt for when the sun disappears behind the bleachers. The Rock Cats began a homestand tonight, and it was "Anti-Diet Night" at New Britain Stadium. For $12, or $14 if you wanted the good tickets, you could get all-you-can eat hot dogs, hamburgers, nachos and popcorn. Also (as I have mentioned before), Thursdays are Sam Adams happy hours, with discounted beer. Can you beat these deals? I heard that the Twins are charging $10.75 for buffalo chicken macaroni and cheese. I spent about $20 tonight -- including my ticket right over the Rock Cats' dugout.
     
     
    It was a tough defeat for the home team tonight. They lost 6-5, after coming from behind to tie the game up in the 8th inning. There were some good things, however, that bear mention. The Rock Cats did a lot of hitting tonight: Evan Bigley, Chris Colabello and Estarlin De Los Santos each contributed two hits. Aaron Hicks had a clutch 2-out RBI single to get the scoring going in the first inning -- a sharp line drive back up the middle. Chris Herrmann and Deibinson Romero each had doubles. Colabello continues to impress me. He was 2-for-4 with 2 RBIs and a walk tonight, and is batting an even .333 on the season. I'm not sure quite what to make of him -- 28 and in his first year of affiliated baseball -- but he is definitely not in over his head at AA. He's the kind of guy you want to root for; it's the kind of story that makes minor league baseball so great.
     
     
    For me, the most interesting play of the night involved Hicks. With one out and Hicks on first, Romero hit a deep fly ball to deep left field. There was never much doubt that the ball would be caught, but it appeared to make it to the warning track. Hicks retreated to first, then proceeded to successfully tag up on the play. It was a gutsy, heads-up base-running play. A better left fielder might have made the play on Hicks, but not tonight. It was the first time I saw Hicks sprint out of necessity, and the guy was fast!! He didn't end up scoring that inning, but those are the types of plays that gamers make.
     
    On the mound, Logan Darnell was adequate. He went six innings, gave up 4 runs, walked 3 while striking out 5. He never appeared to have complete control of his pitches, though. His fastball was hitting 93 most of the evening, and definitely had some pop. His offspeed stuff was about 83 and 79 (I'm guessing change-up and curve). He fooled several hitters. Darnell, unfortunately, was charged with 2 errors on pickoffs. On the error that I witnessed, the baserunner broke toward second, and all Darnell had to do was make a solid throw to first. Unfortunately, he threw wildly and the ball ended up in the right field corner. Hopefully that was a one-night problem for Darnell. Hicks also had a miscue, but it was ruled as a hit: he failed to see a fly ball of the bat (the sun was setting and it is apparently tough to pick up the baseball at that time of night), and it went for a double. So, although Darnell wasn't perfect tonight, there was room for improvement with the defense.
     
     
    Lester Oliveros took the loss for the Rock Cats. After they had tied the game up on a clutch two-out two-run triple to center field by Evan Bigley, Oliveros couldn't keep the momentum going into the 9th inning. A walk, stolen base and single did him in. The good thing about baseball, though, is that you need a short memory. New Britain will be back in action this morning, in fact. I'll be going to Sunday's game, so keep an eye out for more pictures and a game summary.
  3. Twins Fan From Afar
    [Originally published at Twins Fan From Afar]
     
    The New Britain Rock Cats lost a close game this afternoon, 2-1, to the Portland Sea Dogs. This was a pitcher's duel, to be sure. Starter Steve Hirschfeld pitched 7 strong innings for the Rock Cats, striking out 7 and walking none, to lower his ERA to 1.06. He surrendered just three hits. Blake Martin struck out 2 in a scoreless 8th. Luis Perdomo blew the save after allowing two walks and a double in the 9th, and then lost the game when, after intentionally walking the next batter, he gave up a walk-off single.
     
     
    Offensively, the Rock Cats tallied only 3 hits all afternoon. Mark Dolenc, Aaron Hicks and Pedro Florimon constituted all the offense today, and the only run of the game came on a wild pitch in the first inning.
     
     
    One interesting thing: It's been several days since Alex Wimmers pitched for New Britain. His last -- and only -- start was on April 9th. He pitched just under 5 innings, and was solid. He didn't appear to leave the game with any injury. But there have been 9 games since then. Here is who started for New Britain since Wimmers' last appearance:
     
     
    Luke French
    Andrew Albers
    Jason Marquis
    Steve Hirschfeld
    Logan Darnell
    Luke French
    Andrew Albers
    David Bromberg
    Steve Hirschfeld
     
     
    I was already beginning to get concerned, and then this very topic came up on the TwinsDaily discussion board, so I thought it would be worthwhile to at least mention that Wimmers has been absent from 9 games now. Was this related to Marquis getting work in with the Rock Cats? Who knows. I'll update if I find anything out when I go to tomorrow's game.
     
    [update: That was quick. Thanks to Seth Stohs at TwinsDaily, we now know that Wimmers has a sore back and a slight flexor strain, and will miss at least a couple starts. Thanks, Seth!]
  4. Twins Fan From Afar
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    [TD=class: tr-caption]With no Scott Baker in the fold, and with an
    ineffective Francisco Liriano, the future of the Twins'
    rotation is dubious, at best
    [/TD]

    [/TABLE]
    [Originally published at Twins Fan From Afar]
     
     
    You all know the story by now: Last night was not a good night to be a Twins fan. A completely ineffective Francisco Liriano ruined what could have been some nice momentum in a tough, 4 game series against the Yankees, and we received news that Tommy John surgery was performed on Scott Baker, instead of a simpler procedure to "clean up" his right elbow. Liriano's awful performance (after a stellar spring), and Baker's 12 month (minimum) recovery period have likely caused a sea change in the way that the front office is viewing the starting rotation, for 2012 and beyond.
     
     
    In my head, I had always penciled in one of Baker or Liriano as possibilities for 2013, thinking that it would be possible -- maybe even smart -- for the Twins to try to extend one of these veteran starters. Now, Baker's 2013 option will certainly be declined, as he is shelved for at least a year, and who knows what to do with Liriano? Sure, he could come back in his next start and fire a no-hitter, but that doesn't seem at all possible right now. Handed a 3-1 lead in Yankee Stadium, against CC Sabathia no less, Liriano couldn't even get out of the third inning. He threw more balls than strikes (I acknowledge, though, that the strike zone last night was bad), and Yankees hitters took advantage of pitches left out over the plate. This is not the kind of guy you build your rotation around. This is the kind of guy that winds up in the bullpen, which is where I expect Liriano will be by June if he doesn't straighten out. Worst of all, for a team that right now doesn't appear to be contending for anything other than the worst record in baseball, he's not even accumulating value for the Twins to trade him.
     
     
    All of this brings me to my main point this morning. I, along with most of Twins Territory, wished during the past few off-seasons that the Twins would acquire an upper echelon pitcher. It hasn't happened, of course. Carl Pavano and Jason Marquis hardly qualify. But think -- just for a second -- if they had. What if, for example, we had gotten a guly like Cliff Lee, or Roy Halladay, or even Zack Greinke? What a colossal waste of money it would be for 2012, and probably 2013. We would be paying basically $1 million per win for this pitcher. In other words, $20 million for 20 or so wins. Yes, it'd be great to have a 20 game winner on staff, but not if that pitcher is literally your only consistent weapon. This team -- without Baker and with an ineffective Liriano -- still wouldn't be much better. Certainly it would win 10 or so more games over the course of the season, but probably not nearly enough to win the division. For right now, at least, it would seem like misallocated money. It's great to have a dominant pitcher -- the kind of guy that you know stands a very good chance of winning every 5th day and throwing 7, 8 or 9 innings -- but it's not so great if there are no #2 or #3 starters to round out the stable. I had always envisioned this ace alongside a couple other good, younger pitchers, leading the staff and perhaps even helping the others become better pitchers. For right now, anyway, it would seem like a waste of money.
     
     
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     
     
    Amid all the bad news about the Twins, there is good news out of Twins Territory to report: The New Britain Rock Cats won their 6th straight game last night. Chris Colabello was the big star last night. He hit 2 home runs and had 3 RBIs to lead the way to a 6-3 victory over the Portland Sea Dogs. Colabello, 28, is one of those great baseball stories. He spent 2005-2011 playing in the Canadian-American League, which is an independent baseball league. He spent all but one of those seasons with the Worcester (Massachusetts) Tornadoes, and 2012 is his first year playing in the minor leagues. At 28, he's too old to be a top prospect, but you really, really have to respect the guy for going out there and trying to make a career as a professional ballplayer. I hope he does more than "provide minor league depth," or whatever scouts or front office people might tell you. Deibinson Romero, Pedro Florimon, Nathan Hanson, Evan Bigley, Chris Herrmann and Estarlin De Los Santos also picked up hits for New Britain. David Bromberg and Bobby Lanigan each pitched 3 innings for the Rock Cats, with Lanigan picking up the win after allowing no runs. Deolis Guerra got the hold, pitching very well in the 7th and 8th innings, allowing no hits and striking out 2. Lester Oliveros pitched the 9th and, although he got into some trouble, allowing 2 earned runs on 2 hits and a walk, was able to make it through the inning. The Rock Cats are now 10-3, and play this afternoon to wrap up what has been a very successful road trip.
  5. Twins Fan From Afar
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    [TD=class: tr-caption]Is tonight the night where Liriano puts it together??
    [/TD]

    [/TABLE]
     
    [Originally published at Twins Fan From Afar]
     
    CC Sabathia is down. In two starts this season, he has 0 decisions. In 12 innings pitched, he's given up 16 hits, 9 earned runs, 2 home runs and 5 walks, while striking out 15. His ERA in this brief stretch is 6.75. Clearly, he's looking to rebound against the Twins tonight, and for good reason: in his last 9 starts against Minnesota (including the postseason), Sabathia is 8-0 with a 1.72 ERA. So, although the Twins have the momentum going into tonight -- thanks to great games by Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Alexi Casilla, and a solid outing by Carl Pavano -- Sabathia has the momentum in the historical sense. Tonight's game, featuring lefties Sabathia and Francisco Liriano, could be very good, or it could be rough: both are capable of shutting down offenses, but both have been very hittable thus far.
     
     
     
     
    As I wrote last year, I think it is possible for this team to have success off of Sabathia. I still would love to see a couple bunts (for base hits) in the first few innings tonight. Between Sabathia's bulk, and the fact that neither Alex Rodriguez nor Mark Teixeira is fleet of foot, bunting would be a great way to upset Sabathia early on. Anything that gets him off of his routine is a positive, in my book. Second, Liriano needs to bust a few Yankee hitters inside. Last night, Pavano pitched well, but you could see the Yankees waiting for those pitches that were on the outer half of the plate, without any fear that Pavano would instead go inside and upstairs to "give them a different view of the ball," so to speak. Liriano, with better velocity than Pavano, can do just that. It could be a great game tonight, like a 2-1 or 3-2 contest, if Liriano and Sabathia are both "on." Judging from past performances this season, though, my guess is that one or both are going to struggle. Hopefully it's Sabathia.
     
     
    Finally, I want to formally thank ESPN's SportsCenter for their wonderful coverage of last night's Twins-Yankees game. This game featured, among other things, a gigantic Justin Morneau home run to the deepest part of Yankee Stadium, 3 hits from Joe Mauer, including hard-hit doubles down both lines, and a solid RBI single in the first inning by Josh Willingham to give the Twins an early lead. Of all those plays, SportsCenter's coverage after the game showed one of the Mauer doubles (and Alexi Casilla's nice play up the middle). They spent most of the time -- like 80% -- focusing on Derek Jeter's leadoff 351 ft. home run, Curtis Granderson's shot immediately thereafter, and -- get this -- a Jeter infield single. An infield single. A meaningless infield single in a game the Yankees lost by a considerable margin.
     
     
    I know I'm preaching to the choir here, but seriously: we have Morneau trying to come back, against some pretty significant odds, to resurrect what was once a great career, and they don't even show his home run. We have Willingham, who has hit in every single game this season, and they don't show the line drive that he ripped to open up the scoring for the Twins. And there were a handful of other plays during the game that constituted Twins highlights in my opinion, but were, of course, left on the cutting room floor. I'm very, very glad I got to see Jeter leg out that single to shortstop. Thanks, as always, ESPN, for the fair and balanced coverage. And I really, really look forward to watching the Red Sox-Rangers on ESPN's Wednesday night baseball, and the Yankees-Red Sox on ESPN's Sunday Night Baseball.
  6. Twins Fan From Afar
    [Originally published at Twins Fan From Afar]
     
    The New Britain Rock Cats defeated the Portland Sea Dogs tonight 10-5. Despite the lopsided score, this game actually took 11 innings to produce a winner. The sides were knotted at 5 runs until the Rock Cats exploded for 5 runs in the 11th inning, and then shut down the Sea Dogs in the home half to secure the victory.
    For all the runs tonight, New Britain only accumulated 9 hits (they also walked 5 times). Big producers tonight included shortstop Pedro Florimon, who hit his first home run of the year, and drove in 2 runs. Chris Colabello had the most important hit of the night: a 3 run game-tying home run (his second of the season) in the top of the ninth inning with two outs. On the evening, Colabello also had a double and a 4th RBI. Quite a night for the first baseman! Right fielder Evan Bigley had 3 singles and a walk tonight, in 4 at-bats, and also scored 2 runs, pushing his batting average to .311. Deibinson Romero, Estarlin De Los Santos and James Beresford also had hits for the Rock Cats. New Britain sent 10 men to the plate in the decisive 11th inning.
    Lefty Andrew Albers got the start for New Britain, lasting 5 innings, and giving up 8 hits, 4 earned runs, and striking out 4 while issuing no free passes. The bullpen, however, was better. Although reliever Brett Jacobson gave up a run in one inning of work, Blake Martin pitched a scoreless 7th, and Luis Perdomo and Daniel Turpen each pitched 2 scoreless innings, with Turpen picking up the win in extras. Aaron Hicks was hitless tonight, but did have an outfield assist, nailing a Sea Dogs runner at third base. Martin (on a pickoff) and Florimon each committed their first errors of the season.
    This is now the 5th consecutive win for the Rock Cats, pushing their impressive record to 9-3. They are also undefeated on the road, which is good for any team looking to gain confidence early in the season. They'll be back in action tomorrow night -- same time, same channel.
  7. Twins Fan From Afar
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    [TD=class: tr-caption]This beautiful photo, taken by former Twin Michael Cuddyer,
    illustrates the main concern for the Twins organization:
    empty seats
    [/TD]

    [/TABLE]
    [Originally published at Twins Fan From Afar]
     
    The White Sox officially announced that they were rebuilding last December, when they traded pitcher Sergio Santos to the Toronto Blue Jays for a pitching prospect. At that time, General Manager Kenny Williams said, "It is the start of a rebuilding. You guys know I have not used that word in 12 years. It's the start of a rebuilding now." It's sort of rare for a front office to officially admit that a team is rebuilding, and you can see why -- there is a stigma attached to the word "rebuilding." Most often, it's very obvious from actions, rather than words, that a team is rebuilding. They will never admit it, but it's more than clear.
     
     
     
     
    It's embarrassing, in any personal or professional endeavor, to admit that your Plan A, and perhaps Plan B and Plan C, didn't work. You have to go back to the drawing board completely, and it's going to cost you. With respect to Major League Baseball, it's going to cost you ticket sales, and everything that comes with putting people in your seats: concession and liquor revenue; merchandise revenue; parking revenue; and probably the ability to attract top talent to your team. The list goes on, I'm sure. Over the end of last season, and into the off-season, it seemed like the Twins were re-tooling -- or reloading, rather than rebuilding: a guy that left, like Michael Cuddyer, for instance, was replaced with a comparable, yet somewhat cheaper alternative, like Josh Willingham. Through these efforts, the Twins went into 2012 fielding a seemingly competitive team (not World Series competitive; just competitive in the sense they could win 81 games), but also reduced payroll. In the end, you definitely would not have called last offseason one of rebuilding.
     
     
    And then the last 10 days happened. Scott Baker is done for this season without throwing a pitch, and his career as a Twin might be over. Nick Blackburn has been injured, though he is scheduled to pitch this week -- I'm not holding my breath there. Already, two of the most veteran arms are suspect. This doesn't take into account Francisco Liriano, who certainly is not pitching like it's a contract year. Offensively, Jamey Carroll has been mostly dreadful. Couldn't Brian Dozier do the job for less? He'll probably be given a shot next month, so we'll find out. Josh Willingham, great at the plate, has shown that he'd be better suited for designated hitter. This isn't just supposed to be a laundry list of complaints about my favorite team. I'm listing them to illustrate the massive holes that this team has -- even with a $100 million payroll.
     
     
    The word "rebuilding" is loaded. When a GM utters that word, there's no going back. You are bound to lose ticket sales. At Target Field, commencing only its third year, an official period of rebuilding probably was not an option. But here's a question for you this morning: would the money the Twins would lose in, say, 2012 and 2013 by officially rebuilding, be less than or greater than the money they could stand to lose in the future, say, 2014-2016, if their failure now to officially rebuild and sell off tradeable contracts comes back to bite them in the form of 5 or 6 sustained years of non-winning teams, versus just 2 or 3? Long-winded question, I know. I don't know the answer, but I think it's worth discussing.
     
     
    Right now, that's my worry. Yes, there are some great prospects coming up. We should be excited by guys like Miguel Sano and Alex Wimmers. But they -- especially Sano -- are some time away from arriving. If the Twins continue the subpar play into May, and then June, I'm hoping that we see some major moves for the long-term health of this organization. That's tough to say for the fan in me that likes each of these players for different reasons, but the Twins might have an opportunity to do what they failed to do at the deadline last year -- move competitive players for decent prospects. If that's the case -- and for the record I hope this team gets going and puts posts like this to rest -- I hope that the front office acts this time around. Act for fans of the Twins organization; act for 2014 and beyond.
  8. Twins Fan From Afar
    [Originally published at Twins Fan From Afar]
     
    I think 4 games in a row constitutes a winning streak. If that's not the case, well too bad! The final score today was 3-0 New Britain, and the Rock Cats, in the midst of their first road trip, are now 8-3. The Sunday Rock Cats-Fisher Cats matinee at New Hampshire was essentially a pitcher's duel for much of the game. New Britain starter Lucas French tossed 7 scoreless innings (92 pitches) for the Rock Cats, allowing only 2 hits, and walking 3 and notching 3 strikeouts along the way. He improved to 2-0 on the young season, and his ERA stands at a tidy 0.96.
    New Britain's offense came from an Evan Bigley RBI single (he had two hits on the day), a Chris Herrmann solo home run (his first of the season), and a Nathan Hanson sacrifice fly. Herrmann, especially, is in the middle of an important season -- I'm viewing him as Joe Mauer's potential back-up catcher for 2013. Also notching hits for the Rock Cats were Mark Dolenc, Chris Colabello, Deibinson Romero (who committed the only error for New Britain), and Pedro Florimon, who had 2 hits. Aaron Hicks was hitless, batting as a lefty, but his batting average is still a solid .297.
    The other good story today was the Rock Cats bullpen. After almost giving the game back yesterday, it was much better today. Deolis Guerra pitched a scoreless 8th inning to get the hold, and Lester Oliveros struck out one in the 9th to get the save. New Britain's pitching staff only gave up 3 hits all day, striking out 4 and walking 3. The road trip continues tomorrow, as they travel to Portland, Maine to face the Red Sox AA affiliate, the Sea Dogs.
  9. Twins Fan From Afar
    [Originally published at Twins Fan From Afar]
     
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    [TD=class: tr-caption]Twins fans are wondering when, and if, Kyle Gibson
    will become part of the Twins' rotation
    [/TD]

    [/TABLE]
     
    This season, the Twins are shelling out $28.25 million on their intended starting pitching staff. Here's the breakdown:
     
     
    Scott Baker (will not pitch an inning this season): $6.5 million
     
     
    Nick Blackburn: $4.75 million
     
     
    Francisco Liriano: $5.5 million
     
     
    Carl Pavano: $8.5 million
     
     
    Jason Marquis: $3 million
     
     
     
    As you can see, it adds up pretty fast, and no one player is making close to league minimum. Also, a few of these contracts aren't particularly good. Pavano is overpaid for what he produces (aside from the fact that he will probably pitch 200 innings this season), and I believe that the Twins could have done better for $3 million than Marquis, or could, at this point, just give the spot to a young guy.
     
     
    It's no surprise that there will be massive turnover in this rotation over the next couple seasons. In fact, none of these guys is under contract for 2014. It seems as if Baker's time in Minnesota is likely over, unless he wants to come back to the Twins at a lower amount than the $9.5 million 2013 team option that will most certainly be declined. I guess that's a possibility. For right now, though, let's just assume, for what I'm about to propose, that Baker is out of the scenario. Additionally, the Twins hold an $8 million option on Nick Blackburn for 2014. For right now, I'll assume that they decline that option. Unless Blackburn can extended his perennial April and May success into the hot summer months, it's a lot of money to spend on a pitcher that can't consistently deliver quality starts.
     
    The entire landscape of the Twins -- or at least many aspects of it -- could be very different in 2014. Justin Morneau might not be with the team, although I hope that's not the case. Denard Span could be traded as early as this season, especially if he remains healthy and it appears that Joe Benson is ready to take over in center field as part of a rebuild. Danny Valencia's job could have been usurped by Miguel Sano. And it's almost a foregone conclusion that Brian Dozier will be playing shortstop for the foreseeable future. In all, that sounds to me like the potential for a lot of contracts in 2014 that are close to league minimum, which is good news for the budget conscious Twins.
     
    In my mind, some of that extra money saved in position player salaries would be well spend on pitching. Here's what I propose to get this team's pitching back on track for 2014. And I can do it for roughly the same amount:
     
    1) Major Free Agent Signing. I'm targeting Zack Greinke, specifically. I wrote last week for Through the Fence Baseball on why we should try to get him. The common refrain is that the Twins need a pitcher that can miss bats, and Greinke might be our most attainable shot. Is he an ace? Perhaps. Perhaps not. It depends on your definition. But if he signed in Minnesota, he would instantly become our best starting pitcher since Johan Santana. With pitching payroll coming off the books, and with Greinke becoming a free agent after this season, I say the Twins go after him. $18 million/season.
     
    2) Kyle Gibson. Admittedly there is no longer certainty as to whether we will ever see the pitcher that he once was on the path to becoming. He's out until late this summer recovering from Tommy John surgery. But he was so close beforehand. Aaron Gleeman still has Gibson as the #7 Twins prospect, incidentally. Perhaps he will not become the #2 starter that we dreamed about, but there is still a good chance that Gibson will be a solid starter for years to come in Minnesota. And, importantly, he'll be making close to league minimum. $500,000 (I'm ballparking a little here. Depending on when any of these rookies come up, they will get raises, so it could be a little more than that.).
     
    3) Alex Wimmers. He's on the fast track. Yes, he's not nearly as close to The Show as Gibson is, but by promoting him to AA this season after only 40 innings in Ft. Myers, the Twins have indicated in no uncertain terms that Wimmers, if productive, will quickly climb the ladder. If he's successful this season, there's a chance that he could crack the Twins rotation at some point in 2013. $500,000.
     
    4) Liam Hendriks. It sounds like Hendriks will get a lot of experience in 2012 now that Baker is shelved. He's making $480,000 this season. Let's assume that he's successful and put him, for the sake of argument, at $1.5 million in 2014.
     
    These four pitchers put us at roughly $20.5 million. Let's round up just for budgeting purposes, and call it $22 million. We have some money left over for the 5th pitcher, so let's use it!
     
    5) Solid veteran free agent signing, or Francisco Liriano. Don't laugh. I still hold out hope that Liriano can get his head under control. Don't get me wrong -- these first two starts were pretty awful -- but he looked so good just two weeks ago. Can the Twins get him for 8$ million a season in a deal before he hits free agency? Do they even want to? Would they be crazy to? Or, are they looking for him to throw well so they can trade him? Yes, the signs point to Liriano not being with the Twins next season, but it's an option.
     
    If the Twins don't go that route, that leaves them about $8 million to sign a pitcher. That money should get you a solid, middle of the rotation guy.
     
    So, for around $30 million, we're set for 2014, in my mind, anyway. These young pitchers salaries' will escalate, so it will not be a $30 million rotation for the long-term (although they would be under team control for a few more years, so the raises would be reasonable). And don't forget that the Twins hopefully will draft a pitcher with the second overall selection in the 2012 amateur draft. Maybe this guy will be MLB ready by 2015? And, I'm sure I have forgotten about another prospect or two, such as Adrian Salcedo, that could crack the rotation in another few years.
     
    I recognize that writing a list like this is speculative in nature. There's a chance that neither Wimmers nor Gibson ever throw a pitch at Target Field. But there's also a good chance that they realize their potential. For all the rotten luck the Twins have had (Baker's injury, Liriano's Tommy John surgery and subsequent inconsistent performance, and Blackburn not living up to his contract), it's about time that a few things go in the Twins favor.
     
    So there you have it. 2012 doesn't look like Minnesota's season to win it all, and there are still some contracts on the book in 2013 (Jamey Carroll, Tsuyoshi Nishioka, even Morneau because his future is so tentative) that may prevent the Twins from making a big move, but they should definitely court Greinke and try to build a young rotation around him.
  10. Twins Fan From Afar
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    [TD=class: tr-caption, align: center]My stock minor league picture until I make it to
    another Rock Cats game next week
     
     
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    [Originally published at Twins Fan From Afar]
     
    Just a quick note tonight. The Rock Cats continued their good play, beating the New Hampshire Fisher Cats 6-1 in convincing fashion. Importantly, they played error-free baseball.
    Notables: Starter Steve Hirshfeld went 5 innings, striking out 4 and giving up only 2 hits. He walked 2 along the way. Luis Perdomo pitched 2 innings, giving up the only New Hampshire run, but struck out 2. Lester Oliveros and Daniel Turpen both pitched scoreless innings.
    On offense, first baseman Chris Colabello had both a double and a home run in three at-bats, with 4 RBIs. If you're looking for a player of the game, it's definitely him! Catcher Chris Herrmann was 3-for-5 with 2 doubles, and Aaron Hicks was 1-for-3 with a double and a walk. Hicks and Herrmann each had a stolen base, also. In my opinion, Herrrmann, a returning Rock Cat, has got to be the front-runner for the Mauer back-up in 2013.
    Rock Cats fans, we're looking at a good team here. A good mix of power, speed and pitching. This team is 5-3 going into Saturday's action, and hopefully they can keep it going.
  12. Twins Fan From Afar
    
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    [TD=class: tr-caption]How lineups are posted in
    New Britain -- on a large posterboard
    when you walk in the stadium.
    Gotta love it!
    [/TD]

    [/TABLE]
    [Originally published at Twins Fan From Afar]
    Yesterday morning, the Rock Cats played at 10:35 a.m., eastern time. That's right, as many of you in Minnesota were settling into your workday routine, so were the Rock Cats. These weekday early morning games are interesting. In fact, looking at the season schedule, it looks like the team will play several morning games throughout the season. I'll have to check one of these games out eventually!
     
     
     
    Going into tonight's game, the Rock Cats are 4-3, after losing yesterday to the Harrisburg Senators in the finale of their 3-game series. This was the Rock Cats' second loss in a row. They lost 8-4, but Aaron Hicks came through with another extra base hit -- a double -- and was 1-for-3 with a walk and an RBI. Although it was great that Hicks had another extra base hit (he had homered in both of the previous two games), yesterday's double was encouraging because Hicks was batting left-handed, the side of the plate where he needs to gain consistency. By my math, Hicks has 5 hits in his last 3 games. After starting out just 1-for-12, Hicks has hit in 5 of his last 11 at-bats, so that's great news. Small sample size, yes, but Hicks is showing that his promotion was deserved. In fact, after batting .083 just a few days ago, Hicks is up to respectable .261. And I can tell you from watching both the first game of the season, where Hicks was hitless and appeared nervous, and from watching Monday night when he had 2 hits, including a massive opposite field home run, that he is more relaxed at the plate.
     
     
     
    The second player I wanted to mention this morning is third baseman Deibinson Romero. He doesn't come up on prospect lists much any more. But I've attended two games, and have enjoyed watching Romero hit. He's not a typical prospect -- he'll turn 26 at the end of this season -- so I'm not sure what his future holds. From his career numbers, it's clear that Romero started off as a decent prospect, but saw his hitting stats drop once he hit High A baseball in Ft. Myers. This will be his second season in New Britain. He played 121 games there last year, batting 256/.327/.411. Already, however, he has two errors this season at third base, after having committed twenty at that position last season, so his defense may be an issue. Still, though, he's batting an even .333 with 8 hits early on, 4 of them doubles, and has 3 RBIs in the last two games. I'm not suggesting here that Romero is set to take Danny Valencia's job or anything, just that he has performed well at the plate this season, which for Romero would be a prerequisite to a promotion to Rochester. I like rooting for an underdog. Romero might see consensus #1 prospect Miguel Sano pass him by next season, and he might never play a single inning at Target Field, but perhaps this is his year to put things together?
     
     
    Tonight, the Rock Cats begin a 7 game road trip in New Hampshire against the Fisher Cats, AA affiliate of the Blue Jays. It's probably about a 3 hour bus ride from New Britain (just so you guys reading this stuff have an idea of the distance these players are traveling). After 4 games there, they will drive just a couple hours to play the Portland Sea Dogs, the AA affiliate of the Red Sox. Then it's back home for 7 games against those same two teams. All in all, the Rock Cats are in a stretch of 17 games in 17 days. Thankfully, their bus trips don't seem too lengthy. I'll probably hit up next Thursday night's game against New Hampshire, so you can expect game coverage from that, too.
  13. Twins Fan From Afar
    [Originally posted at Twins Fan From Afar]
     
     
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    [TD=align: center]http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-E4vSyn5fI_E/T4YUuZseCvI/AAAAAAAAARA/SF1qSwePFd0/s1600/scott.jpg[/TD]


    [TD=class: tr-caption, align: center]Will this man-child ever throw for the Twins again?[/TD]

    [/TABLE]
    There's no good news report today, as it was just announced that our best righty, Scott Baker, will miss the entire season as a result of elbow surgery. This is bad news, make no mistake. When he's on, Baker is the second best pitcher in the rotation. Before injuries sidelined him in 2011, he was having arguably an all-star season, and he's one of just a few Twins pitchers that can consistently get hitters to swing and miss. Also, he seems like a nice guy. I met him last year, and he was nothing but polite. But tonight, in a rare Twins Fan From Afar evening post, I'm going to present the silver lining on the Baker news. Here it goes:
    1. The Twins won't have a tough decision to make on his 2013 option. It's for $9.5 million, and I'd be really, really surprised if they picked it up. Sure, this isn't Tommy John surgery, but with Baker's lengthy injury history, it would be a significant risk to take, for a traditionally risk-averse organization. Roughly speaking, $9.5 million is 10 percent of this team's payroll. It's the equivalent of a starting position player, or approximately half the salary of an "ace," however you define that term. In other words, there are things the Twins can do with that payroll space.
    2. I'm not going to give you some line like "this gives another guy an opportunity to step up and show he belongs." If "he" belonged, he'd already be up here, because our pitching depth is not at all, well, deep. What will happen, though, is that the Twins will lose more games this season. Sure, that's no fun in 2012, but this team wasn't going to make the playoffs, anyway. If you are a sub-.500 team, the more games you lose, the better your draft position. This injury, unfortunate as it may be, probably bumped the Twins up a few slots in the 2013 draft. If moving up a few slots is the difference between drafting the next Justin Verlander -- or even the next Scott Baker -- and missing that selection, it's not insignificant.
    3. This makes it more likely that Francisco Liriano stays. Not sure if that is good or bad, but it would be nice to have a veteran starter not named Carl Pavano or Jason Marquis next season. To me, it had seemed, until today, like the Twins would either attempt to keep one of Liriano or Baker, or neither -- but not both. Now, they either will attempt to sign Liriano, or let him walk. Either way, they won't have to think about paying their two most senior pitchers around $10 million each.
    4. If Baker does come back to Minnesota, it will be for cheaper. Let's assume Baker does want to stay loyal to Minnesota. He can come back on a 1-year deal and try to re-establish value, and then hit free agency in 2014. What better place to build good pitching stats than Target Field? If not, perhaps Kyle Gibson will be ready to take a spot in 2013?
    In closing, I'm in no way suggesting that today was a good day in Twins Territory. We lost a good guy -- definitely our first or second best Twins pitcher. That's bad news, and I hope Baker recovers quickly. But if you view this news in the larger context of the 2014-2018 Twins -- who could be very good -- perhaps there is a sliver of good news hidden in there.
  15. Twins Fan From Afar
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    [TD=class: tr-caption]Thus far, good things are coming out of New Britain
    [/TD]

    [/TABLE]
     
    [Originally published at Twins Fan From Afar]
     
    A few unrelated items this morning. First, if you missed it, yesterday I wrote about Alex Wimmers' first AA Rock Cats start that took place Monday night, and Aaron Hicks' monster game that helped give the Rock Cats a big victory. This morning, the good news coming out of New Britain, despite a 7-2 loss to the Harrisburg Senators last night, was that top prospect Aaron Hicks was 2-for-4 with another home run. That's two home runs in two days, and the latest came batting lefty, which is the weaker side for Hicks. A batting average that was a laughable .077 just a couple days ago is now .250, and Hicks is 4 for his last 8, with 5 RBIs in just two games. Clearly, when he's "on," his bat can lead a team. We're all looking for consistency from Hicks, so hopefully these past couple games are a sign of things to come. Whether the Twins decide to keep him as part of the projected 2014-2015 "new look outfield" that's easy to imagine being fantastic (with Joe Benson, too), or whether the organization eventually tries to package him in a trade for some kind of power starting pitching, it's an incredibly important season for Hicks in terms of development and career trajectory. The final Rock Cats note for this morning concerns middle infield depth. Pedro Florimon is off to a fast start for New Britain, with a .400/.429/.450 slash line in his first 20 at-bats, and has looked solid in the field from what I have seen. I don't expect too much from him in terms of what he could do for the Twins, but it's nice to see him start off hot.
     
     
    Second, how about those Minnesota Twins? I've barely been discussing them lately. Between the pathetic offense (except Justin Morneau and Josh Willingham) and the fact that Scott Baker is already out indefinitely, I feel like we're in for a long season. Yes, I know that 4 games is nothing, and tonight the Twins could easily start a 4-game winning streak. That's just how baseball works. But the pitching has me worried for the long-term, and that hasn't even been the weak point for this team thus far.
     
     
    A lot of fans are concerned with the depth of the Twins' minor league system, and rightfully so. Here's a question for you: What if the Twins stink again this season? I don't mean winning 78 or 80 games, but more like winning 65 or 68. What if they can secure a top 3 pick in the 2013 draft? Between this year's #2 overall pick and a top selection next season, the Twins could have a rare opportunity to add top-shelf draft talent, which would complement some of the exciting players, like Miguel Sano, that are coming up through the organization.
     
     
    In other words, if you agree with me that this is not a playoff team in 2012, even with a healthy Scott Baker and Joe Mauer, would you rather watch an 81-81 season, or would you prefer to see a bad season in which the team unloaded some players before they hit free agency, and was able to secure a top pick next year? It's an interesting discussion, anyway.
     
     
    Finally, I was thrilled to be a guest on Seth Stohs' SethSpeaks Weekly Twins Podcast. I talked Rock Cats baseball for 10 minutes or so, and was happy for the opportunity to do so. Seth had me on right after Brian Dozier finished up. A tough act to follow! Dozier sounds like a great guy, and I believe he's ready to take over at shortstop right about now. If you didn't listen to the podcast live, you can listen any time by clicking here.
  16. Twins Fan From Afar
    [Originally published with pictures at Twins Fan From Afar]
     
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    [TD=class: tr-caption]Though he got into a jam in the fifth inning,
    Alex Wimmers definitely looked capable of facing
    AA competition
    [/TD]

    [/TABLE]

    Last week, I was fortunate enough to have dinner with and talk to Twins 2010 first round draft pick Alex Wimmers. He sounded pretty geared up for his first start, which took place last night before an announced crowd of 3,126 in New Britain. New Britain won 6-3 over the Harrisburg Senators, the AA affiliate of the Washington Nationals. Wimmers -- though he pitched only 40 innings in Class A last season -- was not overmatched at all by AA hitters.
     
     
    In the first inning, Wimmers struck out Eury Perez, the first hitter he faced, looking. He also gave up a double and a single, but was the fortunate recipient of a 9-2 Evan Bigley to Chris Herrmann play at the plate to save a run. In 53 degree weather, Wimmers' fastball was initially registering 86 and 87 on the radar gun, but got up to 89 as he warmed up. His offspeed stuff was just under 70, and definitely fooled some hitters.
     
    Wimmers walked a batter to lead off the second, but got out of the inning unscathed. In the third inning, he gave up a first-pitch solo home run to the Harrisburg #9 hitter, Josh Johnson, but then retired the next three hitters. The next inning, third baseman Deibinson Romero committed an error on a hard grounder through his legs, and Wimmers walked the next batter. Thereafter, though, he showed composure, getting the next hitter to pop out weakly to catcher, and striking out the Harrisburg third baseman for final out.
     
     
    The fifth inning would be Wimmers' last. After Josh Johnson, who previously homered, led off the inning with a bunt single, the next two batters singled -- one on a grounder to third that was ruled an infield hit. All of the sudden, the bases were loaded with no outs. The #3 hitter for Harrisburg then grounded back to Wimmers, who alertly threw home for the force out. That would be the last hitter Wimmers would face. Delois Guerra came on in relief, and gave up a run-scoring single before retiring the side. That run, of course, was charged to Wimmers. In the end, Wimmers' line for the day was good: 4 and 1/3 innings pitched; 2 earned runs; 6 hits; 3 strikeouts (2 looking); 2 walks. He threw 83 total pitches (I had 50 as strikes) in fairly chilly conditions, and I imagine he was on a pitch count this early in the season, and this early in his professional career. Wimmers was solid in his debut. There was definitely room for improvement, but he looked ready for AA competition, and I look forward to seeing him in action again.
     
     
    Because this is a fan blog, and I'm a fan of Alex Wimmers, I'll say this, too: he wasn't out of gas in the fifth inning. 2 of the 3 hits he allowed that inning were a bunt single and a slow chopper to third that a better third baseman might have converted for an out (as it was, the runner beat it out by just a half step). Wimmers thereafter gave up a routine line drive single, and then made a nice play on a weakly hit, high-bouncing chopper back to the mound. So in his final inning, only 1 ball was solidly struck. If this was June or July and 85 degrees out, I would have liked to see Wimmers stay in there and get out of the jam.
     
    If you're looking for the hero of the game, though, look no further than Aaron Hicks. Up until tonight, he was not playing well. I felt justified in questioning whether he was, in fact, ready for AA ball. His first at-bat was frustrating. With a runner in scoring position and two outs, Hicks flailed weakly at two offspeed, well off-the-plate pitches, before grounding out to end the inning. In fact, at one point early this evening, Hicks was batting .077. Everything changed, though, after a tough 9-pitch at-bat in the bottom of the third inning, when Hicks, batting right handed, hit a no-doubt, 3 run homer to right center field. New Britain Stadium has what I would estimate to be a 15 foot tall fence all around the stadium, and Hicks' tater easily cleared the wall. In his next at-bat, Hicks lined a sharp single up the middle to score Evan Bigley. All of the sudden, he had 4 RBIs through only 5 innings. On the night, Hicks ended up 2-for-4, with a homer, 4 RBIs, a strikeout and a groundout, and 2 runs scored. It was a solid night, and had to be both relieving and exhilarating for Hicks.
     
    Other notable performers included Bigley, who recorded two hits, including a well struck double to deep right-center field, and a sacrifice fly, as well as the previously mentioned great throw to home plate to cut down a Harrisburg runner in the first inning. Outfielder Darin Mastroianni had two hits, and, looking alert on the base paths, two stolen bases. Guerra was good out of the bullpen. Although he gave up a hit to score a run (charged to Wimmers), he went 2 and 2/3 innings, gave up only 2 hits, walked none, and struck out 1 batter. He earned the win. Finally, it's worth noting that Deibinson Romero atoned for his error at third base, compiling 3 hits, including a double. Daniel Turpen gave up 1 run in 2 innings to close out the game, and hit 94 on the radar gun, striking out 2 along the way.
     
    These Rock Cats are looking good early in the season. They racked up 13 hits tonight, including 3 for extra bases. Bigley already has 7 RBIs this season. How many runs have the Twins -- the entire team -- scored this year? New Britain pitchers gave up only 2 walks, which is good, and were able to get out of jams and hold leads. This will be a fun team to watch!
  17. Twins Fan From Afar
    [Originally published with pictures at Twins Fan From Afar]
     
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    [TD=class: tr-caption]Camden Yards from the hotel window.
     
     
    [/TD]

    [/TABLE]
     
    Well, the baseball side of things left a lot to be desired, but you're not much of a baseball fan if you can't have a great time at opening weekend at Camden Yards. Before Friday's game, I got to say hi to veteran blogger Topper Anton from Curve for a Strike. Great guy, and it was cool to meet another east coast transplant Twins blogger. There were also several Twins fans in attendance. We sat next to the coaching staff's wives one day, and also near Josh Willingham's family another day. I also ran into a guy I went to high school with. It was a good sized, and vocal, community of Twins fans sitting near their dugout. And, as usual, the players were pretty responsive to the fans. Denard Span, especially, spent a lot of time signing autographs before Sunday's game.
     
    I'll start with the one positive from the Twins' side: Justin Morneau is, far and away, the best hitter on this team right now. A month ago, who would have thought that? I attended the Saturday and Sunday games. In those 2 games, Morneau hit 2 hard doubles (1 looked like a home run off the bat, but didn't have the height), one hard single that nearly took off the first baseman's foot, and had 2 long outs to the outfield, one of which missed being a home run by 5 feet or so. He also worked ahead in the count, and was selectively choosing which pitches to swing at. There was little of the flailing that we saw last season, and he didn't bail out on any pitches. Morneau is so locked in that, if he stays healthy, he should hit 20 home runs and at least 40 doubles.
     
    Saturday, Francisco Liriano looked like he was going to be great after the first inning. He struck out the side convincingly, and Joe Mauer actually tossed me the game ball as he jogged back to the dugout. That first inning, unfortunately, was the highlight of the game for the Twins. Yes, Liriano was not good the rest of the game, but I'm pegging a lot of that on the defense -- Josh Willingham, and to a lesser extent, Danny Valencia. The defense was cringe-worthy, and that, along with Liriano becoming a head-case after giving up a relatively unimportant solo home run in the second inning, undid the Twins. Like everyone else, I was expecting a lot better from Liriano. If he can't get his head under control -- against the Orioles in April -- I don't know what to do with him. Hopefully, it was just a rocky start and he'll rebound later this week. He was probably angry with his performance, and angry with his teammates. Rightfully so on both counts.
     
    I don't have very many other positive things to say. Anthony Swarzak was decent yesterday. He kept the Twins in the game, even as they were getting no-hit into the seventh inning. Jamey Carroll looked good at shortstop, but bad at the plate. He doesn't have a hit yet, but he does run hard down to first base, so there's that. Valencia is off. He grounded into 2 double plays Saturday and, though he wasn't charged with an error in that game, have a mental lapse on a play where he should have covered third base, but did not. During infield practice yesterday, the coaches were working with Valencia. Perhaps he is on a short leash again, because Sean Burroughs started at third on Sunday, while Valencia watched. Chris Parmelee looked like a rookie out there. His at-bats weren't very good on the whole, but there's room for optimism with him.
    After the small sample size, I'm left thinking that this Twins team isn't nearly as bad as they played this past weekend, but also isn't very good, either. There are going to be defensive concerns all over the place. Left field and right field could be problem areas. Willingham didn't look very comfortable in the small left field of Camden Yards -- I wonder how he will fare at Target Field? And the offense was troubling, to say the least. Baltimore's pitchers were just adequate this weekend, and the Twins made them, for the most part, look like All-Stars. Not a good way to start out. I still think this could be a .500 team, but the offense has to start clicking.
    On a side note, I love Target Field, but Camden Yards is still #1 for this fan. I will say, though, that Target Field definitely has Baltimore beat in terms of concessions. Sure, we don't have softshell crab sandwiches at our ballpark, but that's about the only unique food at Camden Yards. The rest seemed to be hot dogs, popcorn and burgers. Also, it is nice having the open concourse at Target Field. We missed over an inning of Saturday's game searching for food, and it would have been nice to have had that open view of the stadium. So, in its 20 years, Camden has aged a little bit. But without Camden Yards, there's no footprint for PNC in Pittsburgh, San Francisco's great stadium, and even Target Field. Happy anniversary to the "parent" stadium for this great new generation of classic American ballparks.
     
     
  18. Twins Fan From Afar
    http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-mjq1LN6XLSo/T35ZvfUlEVI/AAAAAAAAAOg/Q9_T15HS2S4/s320/download.jpg

    [Originally published with pictures at Twins Fan From Afar]
     
    Opening Day is special for fans and players alike -- especially for players in the minor leagues who are working their way up the system and hoping to latch on with a new, better team each season. After spending some time with Alex Wimmers and the other Rock Cats players the other night, I have a newfound respect for what these guys are going through. Tonight, I attended the New Britain Rock Cats opening night against the dreaded Richmond Flying Squirrels, AA affiliate of the San Francisco Giants.
     

    You can read an official game re-cap
    here, but I thought it might be enjoyable to read this fan's perspective of the Rock Cats' 3-2 opening day victory. I'll begin by noting that it was a chilly night in central Connecticut. It was 45 degrees for the first pitch, and 42 by the time the game ended. It was also blustery out. Not quite the t-shirt and shorts weather that we had a couple weeks ago, unfortunately, and I think it affected both teams' pitching decisions. Lucas French, making his first New Britain start, was solid. He gave up only 2 hits in 5 innings, striking out 4 and walking 2. The stat line is great, and I would say that French was very good -- but not great. Interestingly, his fastball seemed to be his worst pitch tonight. Perhaps it was the weather, but early in the game he was throwing it very, very high, consistently. Luckily his off-speed stuff (couldn't tell whether it was a curve or a change-up from where I was sitting) was excellent, and he kept the hitters guessing and off-balance. In the first inning, he also picked off the leadoff batter for Richmond on a nice play. There weren't too many hard hit balls of of French, and he also induced a nice double play grounder to finish his evening.

    On the Rock Cats' offensive side, Evan Bigley provided the big hit, and it was in the first inning. After newly acquired Darin Mastroianni led off the inning with an infield single, Bigley smashed a double over the head of the center fielder. He probably hit it 390 feet, and very hard. More of a line drive than a fly ball. Mastroianni, who had by then advanced to second, scored easily. In the third inning, following a James Beresford leadoff single, Chris Herrmann hit a first-pitch RBI single to the hole between first and second to score Beresford. Thereafter, Bigley grounded into a double play, but Mastroianni (who had walked after the Beresford single) scored.
    Both starting pitchers were pretty solid, but both exited the game after 5 innings. After the sun set, it was really cold, and a bit windy. By this point, Rocky the Rock Cat was curled up in the fetal position atop the home dugout, presumably trying to draw heat from the Rock Cats' dugout radiant heating system. OK, that part didn't happen. But I had to imagine that it was a little rough on pitchers tonight.
     
    The Rock Cats held a 3-0 lead until the 9th inning. Daniel Turpen, who had pitched a scoreless 8th for New Britain, was unable to get it done in the final inning. He gave up 2 singles to start the inning, then recorded two outs. The next batter hit an infield single to second base. Actually, Beresford made a great play at second to keep the ball in the infield, but because both runners were going on contact, 2 runs scored. All of the sudden, it was a game. Lester Oliveros came on and struck out the final batter to earn the save for New Britain. Here's the box score.
    Winners for the evening: French, for pitching 5 scoreless innings when it was pretty cold, and picking off the first batter that reached base. Bigley, for coming through with a big double early in the game. Herrmann had two hits, as did Beresford. They get honorable mentions.
    Losers: No losers because the good guys won. But I will say that Hicks didn't look great at the plate. He was 0-for-4. In one at-bat that I paid particular attention to, he took 4 pitches (I think), and was ahead in the count, before ultimately swinging at pitch that wasn't very good. But he played well in center.


    All in all, it was a good start for New Britain. The attendance was listed at 4,653, but by the time the game ended, there were probably 250 people there. I liked what I saw from the pitchers, and the defense was very solid. No skipped throws to first, no funny routes on fly balls. In other words, the fundamentals looked good for so early in the season. I'll be heading back in another couple weeks, if not sooner (I want to watch Wimmers start), so I plan to provide game summaries and pictures from each outing.


  19. Twins Fan From Afar
    [Originally published with pictures at Twins Fan From Afar]

    http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-BQnbI0K-uYA/T30KG1tXEAI/AAAAAAAAAOA/ejWVyL4Ga0w/s320/Dinner+1.jpg

     
    As much as I love going to Twins games, there's something special about minor league baseball. It's intimate and personal. It's real and unadulterated -- both the good and the bad. Every year, the New Britain Rock Cats host a "welcome home" dinner for the team, the front office and the fans. This year, it was held at the New Britain Elks Lodge #957, just a stone's throw from New Britain stadium. Walking in, I was reminded of my own baseball past -- spaghetti dinners at the White Bear Lake VFW, with the veterans wanting to see what their $500 uniform sponsorship had purchased that season, and post-season American Legion awards banquets held in the basement of the Roseville American Legion.
     
    This welcome home dinner felt substantially similar. We were in the basement of the lodge. It was warm, the decor was old, as were the Elks in attendance. There were all sorts of fans there, including tons of kids, which was great. And most importantly, every player on the Rock Cats' roster was in attendance. And I'll say this: the Twins organization does a fantastic job of making sure that each and every player coming up through the system -- even those from the Dominican Republic that hardly speak a word of English -- does their very best to be polite and considerate to all fans. I saw a couple dozen kids walking around with baseballs signed by literally every player on the roster.
     
    The Miller Lite was flowing. A beer at the Elks Lodge cost just a fraction of what it will cost tonight at the stadium for the opener, and was hardly more than the cost of buying beer at a liquor store. When I walked in, some of the players (all wearing name tags) were frequenting the bar. I'm sure some of them had not participated in too many of these events. And as I learned later, many were just getting to know each other.
     
    At this dinner, one player sat at every table. The previous evening, I had told my brother-in-law that, if I got to choose one player to sit with us, it would be Alex Wimmers. I think he's interesting, and has great potential. You have to like the fact that, although he suffered great difficulties early last season, he came back and threw a no-hitter in his final start of 2011. Clearly, the Twins are high on Wimmers, because they promoted him to AA after only 40 innings in Ft. Myers. After we all sat down for dinner, Jeff Dooley, the voice of the Rock Cats, introduced the roster one-by-one, and assigned each player to a table. To my surprise, Wimmers was assigned to our table.
     
    For three hours, talking to 6 adults and a 10 year-old kid across the table, Wimmers was awesome. He answered a lot of questions, initiated conversation on a bunch of different topics, and was especially cool with the little kid. We learned a lot of stuff. First, Wimmers had only been in Connecticut for a couple days, and had just found an apartment to rent (with 3 other players) that same day. He didn't have transportation to and from this event -- he didn't even know how he was getting home when the dinner ended! Like some others, he had shipped his car up from Ft. Myers, and it wasn't scheduled to arrive for a couple more days.
     
    He talked a lot about coming up through the system. Wimmers really looks up to Joe Mauer. It almost sounded like hyperbole, but he talked about Mauer's work ethic and how all the younger guys learn a lot from Mauer just by being around him during drills and stuff. Wimmers said he got to pitch to Mauer one time in a spring game, and that it was pretty cool. Wimmers definitely believes he's on the fast track. According to Wimmers, Terry Ryan impressed on the AA crew that top performers will not necessarily have to stop in Rochester. Although that's the normal course of events, Ryan has made these guys believe that they are close to the show. Wimmers knows he has a lot to prove this season, and he looked like a guy ready to go to work. He was confident without being arrogant.
     
    Wimmers also talked about the daily schedule. I once attended a baseball camp where the coaching staff called pitchers "non-athletes." Sort of jokingly, sort of not. Wimmers is an athlete. On his 4 non-pitching days, the physical routine is rigorous. Lots of lifting, running, stretching and throwing. No down time. And he looked the part. Having seen Scott Baker, Carl Pavano and a few other pitchers in person, Wimmers is in considerably better physical shape. He's pretty ripped, in fact.
     
    The biggest thing, however, that I took out of my evening with Wimmers is that he's a young man pretty far away from home in Ohio. He's a Cincinnati Reds fan (and a Twins fan, of course). He's far away from his parents, who won't be in attendance at Rock Cats games. It sounds like he comes from a normal family. To Wimmers, his new family -- the Rock Cats -- is largely a cast of unknowns. Yes, he knows some of them from Spring Training, but others are strangers. He's living in a state he knows nothing about, working in a city that is not an especially fun place to hang out, and staying with 3 other pitchers in an apartment that's not even close to his place of work. It's an interesting life.
     
    For a guy that signed a $1.332 million bonus to join the organization, Wimmers was down to earth. It's interesting to see both sides of the guy: the competitor that's confident that he has what it takes to make the show sooner rather than later; and the guy who was up at 6:30 that same morning trying to find a crappy apartment to share with three other players for the foreseeable future. And I bet the fans at other tables would tell you the same thing about their player, and so would the fans from the Beloit Snappers banquet and the Rochester Red Wings dinner.
     
    The minor league baseball experience is real. It's visceral. Tonight, it smelled like an Elks Lodge basement. It's guys driving old cars to the stadium, players living together in strange apartment complexes in strange towns. It's playing double-headers to crowds of 2,000. It's signing autographs for kids that, in 2 days, will have completely forgotten who you are, or will use that baseball that you autographed to play catch. It's having to attend fan banquets and lunches at Elks Lodges when you would rather be out partying or sleeping. Still, though, it was a pretty cool moment when Jeff Dooley mentioned that Mauer, Justin Morneau, David Ortiz, Torii Hunter, Scott Baker and Glen Perkins had all attended this event. The history and promise of it all -- that might be the best part of minor league baseball.
     
    Tonight at New Britain Stadium the process starts anew. Wimmers is set to start Monday's game. As we were leaving, I told him that I hope he dominates, and that he's not in Connecticut for very long. Wimmers is smart -- he knows the potential vacancies with the Scott Baker, Francisco Liriano and Carl Pavano contracts expiring. He knows that Jason Marquis is probably a one-year deal. And he knows that Kyle Gibson is no longer on the fast track that he was just a year ago. In the Twins' system, there is room for good, young pitching. Hopefully Wimmers can put together a solid season, and be in Rochester -- or even Target Field -- sooner, rather than later.
     
    I went into this event expecting roast beef and a fun time. I ended up with roast beef, a fun time and a chance to sit at a table with a guy who might, by 2014, have locked down a spot in the Twins' starting rotation.
     
    ***********************************************************
    If you're interested, check out a few pictures from this event at my website.
  20. Twins Fan From Afar
    [Originally published at Twins Fan From Afar]
     
    To say that it's a big year for Francisco Liriano is an understatement. He's coming off an awful 2011 (except for that no-hitter), he's trying to prove that he can stay healthy for an entire season, and he's pitching for a contract, whether it's from the Twins, or any of the other teams in baseball that might be interested in a lefty with a nasty slider. Earlier this winter, I made my case for trying to extend Liriano before Spring Training even started. Clearly, the Twins (and possibly Liriano) had no interest in that. So now, the Twins are faced with the options of extending Liriano during the season, trying to lock him up after the season, trading him for a potential haul during the season if the team isn't in contention and Liriano looks great, letting him walk, or possibly having to offer him a 1-year, $12.5 million deal in order to get draft pick compensation under the new collective bargaining agreement. That's a lot of money for the Twins, even with some of the starting pitching dollars likely coming off the books next season. Clearly, then, there is a lot at stake this season for both Liriano and the Twins.
     
     

    http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-U79AbH4_ApI/T3rtfnJth3I/AAAAAAAAAN4/JSqJ7QGI760/s1600/Frankie.bmp
    I really think that we're going to see a Liriano this season that closely replicates his 2010 success. All the indicators are there: he showed up to camp healthy and in shape after pitching a little during the winter; he has not walked many batters this spring; for the most part he has kept his pitch count reasonable, allowing him to last longer; and he still has been striking out a fair number of hitters. For Liriano -- or most any starter, for that matter -- those are the keys to success, and it looks like Liriano is mostly there. Look at the numbers for Liriano this spring: 27 innings pitched; 2.33 ERA; and most impressively, 33 strikeouts and only 5 walks given up. His WHIP is 1.11, after allowing 25 total hits. So, he has been a strikeout pitcher that pitches to contact. Compare his 2012 spring stats to 2010, when he threw 20 innings, compiled a 2.70 ERA, struck out 30 and walked 5. That spring, his WHIP was 1.20, and he gave up 19 hits. Pretty similar numbers, and reason for optimism.
     
    Unfortunately, Liriano could be pretty great this year, and it might not mean a whole lot to the Twins. The Twins look like a team that will score runs, but will also give up runs from a "just average" defense and a potentially weak bullpen. Some of Liriano's good work, then, could be undone, either by a few hits that should be outs, or from a bullpen implosion after he exits the game. My projection for Liriano this season is the following: 14-11; 3.4 ERA; 210 innings pitched; 185 strikeouts. It will be a very good season for Liriano, and I think he'll remain healthy and lead the staff in victories. And following such a season, there's going to be a contending team that says, "hey, those 14 wins he got in Minnesota would have been 17 or 18 in (pick your choice of New York, Boston, Texas or some other good team)," and a couple of those losses from blown Matt Capps saves wouldn't have happened with us, because our closer is actually good and dependable! Simply stated, I think Liriano could price himself out of Minnesota with a solid 2012 season.
     
    In the end, it's all speculation, of course. Liriano has to stay healthy, and he has to demonstrate that he can control his emotions in big games -- otherwise contending teams will be reluctant to gamble on him. But in 2012, I think we're going to see an interesting mix of a strikeout pitcher who finally has realized the value of a 7-pitch, 3 groundout inning.
  21. Twins Fan From Afar
    [Originally published at Twins Fan From Afar]
     
    As I scanned down the list of position players on the Twins' 25 man roster, and saw names like Josh Willingham, Justin Morneau, Joe Mauer and Denard Span as starters, and guys like Luke Hughes and Sean Burroughs off the bench, something came to mind: there shouldn't be an awful hitter on this team in 2012.
     
    If you've followed the Twins for the past several seasons, there is always at least one hitter that can barely hit his weight, yet makes his way onto the 25 man roster, and eventually onto the field, to the chagrin of most fans. Last year, it was Drew Butera, who batted .167. Tsuyoshi Nishioka wasn't much better, hitting .226. Much to my pleasure, neither player made the Twins' roster to begin 2012. Perhaps there is hope for each. Nishioka has been playing pretty well in the AAA games, and maybe coach Tom Brunansky can help Butera at the plate?
     
     
    [TABLE=class: tr-caption-container]


    http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-bG0vU3--XzY/T3mcoWiEWuI/AAAAAAAAANw/6AEBkJqvauM/s320/Tolbert.bmp


    [TD=class: tr-caption]It seems like there is no room on the
    Twins' roster for the Matt Tolberts
    of the world.
    [/TD]

    [/TABLE]
    Even going back to past seasons, there is always at least one guy that struggles mightily at the plate -- that we knew full well would struggle -- and yet he made the team. Matt Tolbert, for instance, batted .232, .240 and .198 in 2009, 2010 and 2011, respectively. His "value" was that he could play many positions, but it certainly didn't outweigh his shortcomings at the plate. How about Jason Repko, our former fourth outfielder? He hit .228 and .226 in 2010 and 2011 with the Twins. A good defensive player, yes, but I'd much rather have Ben Revere's skill set as a backup outfielder. And let's not forget Nick Punto. In fairness, he compiled a couple decent offensive seasons in Minnesota (batting .290 in 2006 and .284 in 2008). Those seasons, however, were sandwiched between seasons like 2007, where he played in 150 games and batted .210, or 2010, his final season in Minnesota, where he hit .239. Punto, however, played great defense at a few different positions, so he didn't have to hit .300 to have value. Going back a little further, there was Brian Buscher. He had one decent season (2008) in a part-time role, but hit .235 in 2009, his last year as a Twin.
     
    The 2012 roster just feels a little different. Sure, it's possible that any one of the position players could have a Tolbert-esque season. That's the nature of baseball, and that's why the Yankees or Red Sox or Phillies don't win the World Series every season. But if I was a gambler, I'd bet that our offense will be pretty decent. Trevor Plouffe might be the biggest risk. He hit .238/.305/.392 in 81 games last season, but has looked pretty good this spring. It's a make or break year for him, as he is out of options, so I expect that he will want to produce well this season. Ben Revere may never become a great player, but it's tough to imagine him not improving at all from last season, where he compiled a .267/.310/.309 line in what was really his rookie campaign. Australian Luke Hughes, who hit .223 last season, has had a monster spring. As of a few days ago, he was leading the team in home runs, RBIs and slugging percentage. Some might think Spring Training stats are meaningless, but I don't. He was hitting the cover off the ball, and I bet it's going to translate into more success in 2012. Like Revere, it's tough to imagine Hughes not improving those 2011 stats.
     
    Perhaps the largest unknown quantity on this roster is Sean Burroughs. The fact that he made this team as a non-roster invitee -- especially when you factor in his personal story -- is pretty impressive. Burroughs played last year in 78 games -- his first MLB action since 2006 -- and is a .273 lifetime hitter in just over 1,800 plate appearances. He'll be in a bench role in Minnesota, and I'm sure that's fine with him. Burroughs is hitting .324 this spring. Perhaps it's doubtful he could compile that kind of average off the bench in his first season in the big leagues since 2006, but I'm guessing that he will be better than the .225 hitters that we are accustomed to seeing as off-the-bench infield help.
     
    In the end, at least from the offensive standpoint, I think the Twins are primed to have 13 decent hitters. Some will progress, some will regress and some will have typical seasons. It's nice to think, though, that there is no "guaranteed out" in the lineup or on the bench. Perhaps the concern, then, is to what extent the Twins sacrificed defense in favor of offense. Though we laughed at Punto sometimes when he batted, he was excellent defensively. Can Burroughs or Hughes turn into a great defensive specialist? Or, at the very least, can the Twins' position players make the routine plays this season to keep the team in games?
  22. Twins Fan From Afar
    [Originally published at Twins Fan From Afar]
     
    Chris Parmelee should be fine. He looked great last September in a Twins uniform, and was a bright spot during an otherwise dismal time. Of the three prospects called up -- Parmelee, Joe Benson and Liam Hendriks -- Parmelee looked the most ready for the show. After watching several Rock Cats games last year in person, I was a little surprised that Parmelee, and not Benson, looked better in his time as a Twin, but that is why I don't get paid to do anything baseball related. You can call it a small sample size, and you'd be correct, but for 21 games in a Twins uniform, Parmelee had a .355/.443/.592 slash line with 4 home runs and 18 RBIs, and most importantly, didn't looked overmatched at the plate or in the field. He also just looked comfortable playing in the majors, which some call-ups are not. And to Parmelee's credit, he followed up his September cup of coffee with a nice glass of Florida orange juice. His numbers aren't quite as impressive, but with a .269 average, 3 home runs and 9 RBIs, he at least has demonstrated that the power he exhibited last September wasn't necessarily a fluke.
     
     

    http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-nk8l7j_Q7Dg/T3Ww4w4Ko-I/AAAAAAAAANo/XX608dNYa90/s320/Parmelee.bmp

    With Morneau presumably starting the season as the full-time designated hitter, and with Parmelee's success, Parmelee is the odds-on favorite to start the season at first base. Understandably, once fans got past the news that Morneau will now be a professional hitter, many are excited by Parmelee's potential. In fact, there have been a few blog posts, and even newspaper articles, suggesting that Parmelee might be the next big thing for the Twins. I just don't think that we should get ahead of ourselves. There's likely going to be a big difference between what Parmelee can provide at the plate over the course of a full season in the majors -- seeing pitchers and ballparks for the first time, and becoming accustomed to the rigorous travel schedule and time demands -- and what he demonstrated in New Britain and Minnesota in 2011, and in a few weeks of exhibition games in 2012. I think Parmelee will be a success, both this year and the future, but I also think that in 2012 he will much more closely resemble the player that hit a composite .282 at New Britain than the player that took Target Field by storm last September. As fans, we should be fine with that.
     
    Parmelee, who turned 24 last month, is a rookie in the truest sense, without even a game of AAA baseball under his belt. Though he has looked fairly consistent, be ready for slumps, and expect -- at least occasionally -- for him to look overmatched at the plate. It's been a while since the Twins had an exciting rookie prospect come up that both management and fans expected to have a good career (I won't even mention Wilson Ramos; and Danny Valencia, though he did well in 2010, by no means shot up through the minor league system and never batted at or above .300 in AA or AAA). In 2005, Justin Morneau's first season as a full-time first baseman, he batted .239/.304/.437 with 22 home runs, 79 RBIs and 94 strikeouts. The power was there, clearly, but he was still a little raw. The next season he was the American League Most Valuable Player. During his nacency, Morneau was also rated the #14 and #16 prospect by Baseball America. Parmelee, conversely, did not come up through the system with such expectations attached to him. Here's what I expect from Parmelee, assuming just for now that he is a full-time starter (though likely he will be splitting time at first with Joe Mauer, Ryan Doumit and perhaps Morneau): .270/.345/.440, with 18 home runs and 70 RBIs. And I expect the defense to be solid, but not astounding.
     
    Yes, Parmelee is ready to play in Minnesota. And yes, he looks like a really solid first base prospect with perhaps an exciting future ahead of him. But there's a jump between AA, a September call-up and Spring Training exhibition games, and perhaps having to face CC Sabathia one night, and Justin Verlander or Cliff Lee the next night. The good thing, though, is that Parmelee has looked like a professional this spring, and I have little doubt that he is the type of player that will make the adjustments necessary for long-term success.
  23. Twins Fan From Afar
    [Originally published at Twins Fan From Afar]
     
    Jeff Dooley, the voice of the New Britain Rock Cats, has been blogging about Twins Spring Training. A couple days ago, he stated in the blog that the Rock Cats' 2012 lineup would be headlined by prospect Aaron Hicks. This is generally in agreement with what I heard at the Rock Cats Hot Stove luncheon in January, where Rock Cats manager Jeff Smith suggested that, at some point in 2012, fans in Connecticut would be welcoming Hicks.
     
     
    Though the promotion is certainly great news for Hicks (and for me, who will get to watch him play a bunch this year), I am wondering if it was the correct move at this moment. Hicks did not receive an invitation to Spring Training this season. Terry Ryan recently stated to Pat Reusse, regarding Hicks: "He didn't have much of a summer. We want the young players to understand that you need a good year -- not a few good weeks -- to be rewarded."
     
     
    [TABLE=class: tr-caption-container]


    http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-dRj7odfxbQQ/T3MHYIQZUXI/AAAAAAAAANY/k0fn-7qrwP4/s320/Hicks.bmp


    [TD=class: tr-caption]Was Aaron Hicks really ready for the promotion to
    AA New Britain?
    [/TD]

    [/TABLE]
    Those "few weeks" that Ryan referenced were Hicks' solid performance in the Arizona Fall League, where he ended up with a .294/.400/.559 slash line, along with 8 doubles, 5 triples and 3 home runs. Those numbers were encouraging, sure, but were comprised of just over 100 plate appearances. I think it's more important to look at what Hicks did in 2011 at single-A Ft. Myers, where he accumulated a .242/.354/.368 slash line with 110 strikeouts, 78 walks and 5 home runs in 528 plate appearances. If, as Ryan said, the organization doesn't want to reward players with a Spring Training invite (I assume they use Evite or some similar computer program to save on costs) based on a few good weeks of fall baseball, it's strange that Hicks was rewarded with a promotion to double-A on that same basis. It surely can't be based on his 2011 regular season numbers, which do not demonstrate any kind of mastery of single-A, at least with respect to offense. As we learned from the Terry Doyle experiment, success in the AFL doesn't necessarily translate to success at the next level -- whatever that next level is.
     
     
    Hicks' promotion reminds me, on some levels, of Bryce Harper's recent promotion from double-A to triple-A. If you weren't paying attention to the news, it almost came off like a demotion. After all, some in the Washington Nationals camp thought Harper would begin the season as the Nationals' center fielder. It seems like it will just be a matter of months -- not years -- before Harper sets foot in the nation's capitol permanently, but I think the Nationals got a little ahead of themselves. Harper's line at double-A Harrisburg was .256/.329./.395 over 37 games. That's right, he only played 37 games at double-A. He struck out 26 times, walked 15, and hit 3 home runs, 1 triple and 7 doubles in that time. That hardly qualifies as mastery in my book, but he's on Washington's fast track, for better or worse. Don't get me wrong -- he seems a lock to be a star major league player, but why would it hurt him to bat .300 at Harrisburg before being promoted to AAA or Washington?
     
     
    Unless there's a staffing emergency such as a sudden opening due to a trade, or a startling lack of depth at a particular position, it seems to me that, especially with respect to top prospects like Harper -- and Hicks -- it's best to have those players succeed at the lower levels before they are promoted. You can still promote players quickly, though. And for the Twins, if there's one position where there is not a staffing emergency or a lack of depth, it's at center field. We know that Hicks' glove is there, and from that defensive standpoint I'm sure he earned the promotion. But the streaky offensive side is alarming. I'd like to see Hicks start of at Ft. Myers and do well there, even if just for a month or two, before coming out to New Britain. I'm curious to hear your thoughts on Hicks. Did he earn the promotion, or should he be spending a bit more time in Ft. Myers to prove that he's ready for the next step offensively?
     
     
    On a side note, check out my recent post at Through the Fence Baseball, which includes a great picture of Target Field taken by Michael Cuddyer.
  24. Twins Fan From Afar
    [Originally published at Twins Fan From Afar]
     
    To say that Justin Morneau has been locked in the past few games is an understatement. How does 7-for-14 with 3 home runs and a double sound? If this was the regular season, we'd be beginning a campaign for Morneau to win the AL Player of the Week Award. Although these were only Spring Training games, his offensive performance was meaningful in the larger scheme of things. By "larger scheme," of course, I'm referring to Morneau's health.

    We learned over the past several days that what many thought about as a possibility is now a probable outcome, namely, that Morneau will at least begin the season as the Twins' designated hitter and will not be starting at first base. On the one hand, it's a little bit disappointing that the risk of further concussions is always going to factor into Morneau's assignments. On the other hand, though, at least it provides a little bit of certainty for now. We know where Morneau stands, and he's been remarkably candid.
     
    Here's just a small portion of what he said to Pioneer Press reporter John Shipley, when asked about playing first base: "Whatever's going to keep me in the lineup, and I know, I said it this spring, too, `if I'm well enough to play, I'm well enough to play first.' I think I have to say that to get myself ready to play the season, and obviously the goal is to play first and be able to, but in the end, like I said, it's going to be about being able to have at-bats. Whatever's going to allow me to have 600-plus at-bats and be healthy enough to play 162 games without, you know, playing two days and needing a day off, or whatever it is. We're not going to go through that whole up-and-down and all the rest of it. I think I can help this team by playing first, but I help us more by being in the lineup every day."


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    http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-zfYsHBVM6W0/T3PbIwzCwqI/AAAAAAAAANg/hoeMT6loJ5U/s320/JM+Fielding.jpg


    [TD=class: tr-caption]As it stands now, this could be a rare sight in 2012
    [/TD]

    [/TABLE]

    I think Morneau is correct in the sense that -- if you had to choose one or the other -- his 600-plus plate appearances are more important to the club than his defense at first (though he worked hard to become a great defensive first baseman). Reading between the lines, DHing sounds like a rational decision for at least two reasons: first, as Morneau said, it will be easier on his body to only hit and not play the field; second, and perhaps more importantly, it will reduce the chances of Morneau suffering another concussion, which likely would end his career. I wonder, though, how much Morneau strictly DHing will actually reduce the chances of him suffering a concussion?
     
     
     
    In his Twins career, of course, Morneau has suffered two concussions. The first happened in July, 2010, when he slid into the knee of Toronto Blue Jays infielder John McDonald, and the second took place in August, 2011, in a seemingly innocuous play when Morneau, playing first, dove for a ground ball. The resulting concussion was strange because Morneau didn't even hit his head on the ground, but the fall was significant enough to jar his brain to the point that it resulted in another concussion. The more we are understanding concussions now, the more we are realizing that, once a person has suffered one concussion, they are much more likely (perhaps up to four times) to sustain another concussion.
     
    It's a repeat of Morneau's second concussion that the Twins are trying to avoid, as well as other injuries that could be sustained while he plays the field. How about this play back in 2007, when a Nick Punto throw to first took a funny hop and hit Morneau in the nose, fracturing it. What five years ago was "only" a fracture, today would almost certainly result in a more serious brain injury to Morneau. If you count the fractured nose, Morneau has suffered three head/face injuries in his baseball career: two while playing the field and one while running the bases.
     
     
     
    For the sake of argument, let's say that in 2012 Morneau gets 600 plate appearances and gets on base 35 percent of the time, which would be in line with his career on-base percentage. That means that Morneau will get on base approximately 210 times. Lets subtract 25 of those times on base for home runs. So we're left with 185 times during the season in which Morneau will have to run the bases, and will be exposed to such things as line drives coming at him at first and third, having to execute take-out slides to second, diving back to first to avoid a pick-off, and possibly having to go hard into home plate to score an important run (I'm hoping the Twins caution Morneau not to try to run over the catcher). 185 times on the bases sounds like a manageable number. Add that 185 to the number of plate appearances, 600, in which Morneau will face the unlikely, but still notable, prospect of a beaning, a strange foul ball that ricochets off of home plate, or any other number of unlikely scenarios that could lead to injury. So if Morneau just serves as DH this season, we're left with about 785 times in which Morneau will put himself out there, so to speak.
     
     
     
    In 2008, Morneau played 155 games at first, and had 1,409 defensive chances, which are defined as putouts + assists + errors. When I read that now, in light of everything that Morneau has gone through the past 20 months, all I can think is that, by avoiding playing the field -- at least for now -- Morneau is avoiding 1,409 chances of suffering another concussion. He won't have to field errant throws (even though Punto isn't around to break other of Morneau's facial bones), dive for grounders, react to 100 mile per hour line drives hit his way, catch pickoff throws from Francisco Liriano, or teeter precariously on the edge of the dugout stairs attempting to catch a foul pop-up. Chris Parmelee, Ryan Doumit and Joe Mauer can do all those things -- not as well as Morneau -- but well enough for right now to get the Twins through. That same 2008 season, Morneau had 712 plate appearances, and reached base 233 times (he hit 23 home runs, so we'll subtract that number to remain consistent). In addition to the 1,409 defensive chances, that's another 922 chances on the offensive side. In total, then, in 2008 Morneau accumulated 2,331 plays, plate appearances and times on the basepaths. Even though these calculations are rough and imperfect, you don't have to be a mathematician to see the difference between 2,331 and 785, and to understand why the Twins and Morneau, for right now, prefer that lower number.
     
     
     
    The other significant part of this equation -- perhaps the added benefit -- is that Morneau could have a fantastic offensive season. I have always wondered what Joe Mauer could do if he only had to focus on batting. Yes, his best value, far and away, is at catcher, and I know he likes controlling the game, but it's interesting to ponder what he could do as a "professional hitter." Morneau will have that opportunity. His knees and wrists won't be as achy, the bumps and bruises will be fewer, and I imagine he will have more time to devote to batting work and video review than he would during a traditional season. If Morneau can get into the rhythm of being a full-time DH, he could be great in that role.
     
     
     
    As a final note, I want to talk about Morneau's value. Some fans, probably not too many that have found their way to this little blog, are going to argue that Morneau isn't worth the $14 million the Twins will pay him in 2012 and 2013 if he is only DHing. If you believe that "value" can be computed, Fangraphs indicates that, last season, when Morneau tried to make everything work, he was worth -.3 wins above replacement, and had a value of -$1.3 million. A negative value. As a full-time DH, if Morneau has a successful and healthy season, he could definitely "earn" his salary. For comparison, Red Sox slugger David Ortiz, who had a great season in 2011 (.309/.398/.554 with 29 HR and 96 RBIs), was worth $18.8 million. Morneau wouldn't have to quite approach those numbers to break even for the Twins this season.
     
     
     
    As it stands, the Twins and Morneau have a plan that will hopefully allow him to play in almost every game, accumulate 600+ plate appearances and focus exclusively on hitting, for right now. Certainly, everything is subject to change, but this fan thinks that, all things considered, DHing Morneau is the safest -- and likely the most productive -- use of his talents. It certainly wasn't "Plan A," or probably even "Plan B," but who among us, in our personal or professional lives, hasn't had to go to "Plan C" in order to try and make things work?


  25. Twins Fan From Afar
    [Originally published at Twins Fan From Afar]
     
    This isn't a blog post about March Madness, Tim Tebow (**shudder**), Peyton Manning, Tiger Woods or whether the Yankees or Red Sox won or lost last night. In my mind, those come in a far distant second to what happened on Saturday down in Florida. Of course I'm talking about Justin Morneau's 2-for-2 game with 2 home runs and 5 RBIs. Every report had indicated that, although Morneau was still batting around .100, his timing was closer. La Valle E. Neal wrote about "loud outs," "hard hit balls" and pop-ups that Morneau had just missed. Still, though, it was hard to get past the fact that Morneau only had three hits all spring -- all singles. But then Saturday happened. Check out the replays, if you haven't already. The first home run, especially, was well struck. But the second one might have been more "vintage" Morneau: he hit it out to right-center with that signature 1-handed swing where his left had leaves the bat, and the right hand does most of the follow-through. It was exciting to see.
     
     
     
     

    http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-TXAfej7QI98/T3BgYYCF4sI/AAAAAAAAANQ/KZ8iBtEgKdk/s320/JM.bmp
    I'm not going to make too much of it, of course. It was just Spring Training, Morneau is still batting under .200, and he hasn't played first base in over a week, leading to speculation that Chris Parmelee has perhaps played his way onto the 25 man roster to start at least the first part of the season at first base (with some right field possibly mixed in). But still, I think we should be excited that Morneau is playing in games -- in fact, one side of the debate concerning his recent role exclusively at DH is that it simply gives him more at-bats, and allows him to focus only on batting, rather than defense -- and that those "loud outs" may start falling in for hits. I know a few bloggers are down in Ft. Myers, or are headed there shortly, and I'll be curious for a firsthand, non-media observation of how Morneau looks. Sure, he may be skinny, but he hit the baseball a combined 800 feet on Saturday.
     
     
    Although it's unrealistic as fans to get ahead of ourselves because Morneau hit two home runs in an exhibition game, it is appropriate to consider what those hits could signify in the larger context, namely, that the swing is coming around. And with that being said, I'll leave you with this vintage Morneau clip as a reminder of what that swing looks like when it's at its best.
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