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Blog Entries posted by Twins Fan From Afar

  1. Twins Fan From Afar
    [Originally published at Twins Fan From Afar]
     
    He wasn't a household name last year at this time, even among many followers of the Twins' minor league system, but much has changed in the past 12 months. Depending on whom you speak to in the front office, there seem to be differing interpretations on Dozier's role in the Twins' organization this season. Make no mistake -- everyone is speaking of him highly right now. Terry Ryan, for instance, recently mentioned that he would not hesitate to call a player like Dozier up to the major leagues straight from AA New Britain, saying, "[t]hat's not going to scare us off. If he looks like he's mature enough . . . ." And we all know, now, that Ron Gardenhire actually wanted Dozier on the team last season, but that request was refused by management (side note: what does that tell you about how dire the Twins' middle infield situation was?). If Dozier stays healthy, and remains productive, it's a matter of when, not if, he will make his Twins debut. But today, I want to give you 8 reasons I think the Twins should add Dozier to the 40 man roster, award him the starting shortstop job in Minnesota for 2012, and call it a done deal.
     
     
    
    [TABLE=class: tr-caption-container]


    http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-T7ELk_p2kng/T2t-Wof2ZzI/AAAAAAAAANI/bPEH7pE38As/s320/BD.bmp


    [TD=class: tr-caption]Brian Dozier can take the shortstop job and run with it in 2012
    [/TD]

    [/TABLE]
    
    1. Defensively, I acknowledge that some aren't very high on Dozier, and actually view him as more of a second baseman. Even assuming that he is not the greatest defensive shortstop (although the reports have been pretty positive this spring), the falloff from 38 year old Jamey Carroll to 24 year old Dozier will not be significant. Carroll has limited range, and actually was not even predominately a shortstop earlier in his career. I simply don't see a downside -- defensively -- to having Dozier man the 6-hole, when compared with the alternative.
     
     
    2. Correspondingly, if Dozier plays shortstop, Carroll could move to second base. Carroll can still bat at the top of the order and be that on-base guy that the Twins desperately need, but I think he would be better, and perhaps more comfortable, at second. The stats on Carroll seem to suggest just that: his total defensive contribution at second has been positive (49 runs above average), but has been negative (4 runs below average) at shortstop.
     
     
    3. Taking this one step further, having Dozier at short and Carroll at second essentially solves the Twins' utility infielder conundrum: Alexi Casilla is the answer. The Twins do not need to think about looking outside the organization for a Nick Punto-esque player (or even Nick Punto himself) to play second and short in a pinch.
     
     
    4. The Twins, in all likelihood, won't be winning the division this season. Even if things go right offensively, I think the starting pitching will again be problematic. I'm not going call 2012 a rebuilding year, because a team with a $100 million payroll is not in rebuilding mode, but still it's fair to point out that, with the Tigers perceived dominance and the Twins' perceived weaknesses, it could be a challenging year. What better time to bring in a young prospect. Sure, the expectations will still be high for Dozier, but it presents a good opportunity to let a young guy get a year of MLB experience under his belt.
     
     
    5. The Twins haven't shied away from aggressive moves this month, most notably by demoting failed shortstop Tsuyoshi Nishioka to AAA Rochester. The organization, in my opinion, has effectively admitted that the $14.5 million investment in Nishioka was a bust -- but also that the team will not let Nishioka take up a spot on the Target Field bench just because of the paycheck he is "earning." Tough love, indeed, for Nishioka. But Nishioka's loss -- and the Twins' aggressive move to jettison him -- could bode well for Dozier. Additionally, if the Twins plan to use Nishioka at shortstop in Rochester, he will have to split time with Dozier there. From a practicality standpoint, if the Twins ever want Nishioka to get better, he will have to play every day somewhere, just like Dozier. Another aggressive decision -- this time a promotion instead of a demotion -- will send the signal to some of the other young prospects (and perhaps some of our veterans) that hard work can quickly be rewarded in this organization.
     
     
    6. Dozier has not looked lost in Spring Training. I haven't been following every at-bat, but I have read enough to know that Dozier is holding his own (batting .273 going into Thursday's game), and there has been little mention of bonehead fielding plays or dumb baserunning gaffes. Not that these won't come with any rookie, but it's fair to state that Dozier has not embarrassed himself at all while playing alongside some guys he probably looks up to in a pretty big way.
     
     
    7. Why should Dozier spend a superficial 3 or 4 months at Rochester? If the Twins expect Dozier to hit major league pitching in the very near future -- like July or August or September of 2012 -- and then to continue hitting major league pitching for the next 10 or more years, why not start now, especially if there are not very many good players at Dozier's position above him on the depth chart? In Rochester, Dozier would be seeing some pitchers on their way up, some on their way down, and maybe a couple major league pitchers rehabbing injuries, but the competition would not be as fierce.
     
     
    8. Last, but not least, this move gives fans something to be excited about. Carroll is not by any means a sexy or dynamic player. Dozier, on the other hand, could be the first in a wave of "new Twins" (hopefully soon to include Joe Benson and Chris Parmelee), like Mauer and Morneau in the early 2000s, and gamers like Torii Hunter, Corey Koskie and Johan Santana before that, and Kent Hrbek and Gary Gaetti even before that.
     
     
    There are probably 8 or more reasons not to directly promote Dozier (including the issue of whether he is really going to be a solid defensive shortstop, the fact that having Casilla as the utility infielder raises an issue for a substitute third baseman, and the argument that the Twins should wait to promote Dozier to avoid him achieving Super 2 status), but I'm not convinced by any of them. Under my plan, the only thing that is really "lost" is a full season of Casilla at second base. But I guess I'm at the point with Casilla where I would rather gamble on Dozier, who admittedly is not a sure thing, than on Casilla, who most certainly is not a sure thing (and is no longer a young player, either). In the worst case scenario, Dozier cannot hack it in the majors yet, and will be sent down. This could be tough on Dozier, but it happens dozens of times a season, sometimes even to well established players -- but you know what -- adults learn to deal with it.
     
     
    I'd be happy to hear your thoughts. Am I way off-base here? Or do you agree Dozier is ready for his shot?
  2. Twins Fan From Afar
    [Originally published at Twins Fan From Afar]
     
    The Twins certainly don't have a surplus of major league ready talent at most positions, such as catcher, third base, middle infield, starting pitching, and the bullpen. -- just to name a few areas of concern. But if there is one position where there is a good amount of talent, both on the major league club and in the minor league system, it probably is centerfield.
     
     
     
     
    [TABLE=class: tr-caption-container]


    http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-PkYv_D0CQJc/T2h5oLbHH-I/AAAAAAAAAM4/P5Z2fBuhOh4/s320/Hicks.bmp


    [TD=class: tr-caption]Is this a make-or-break year for Aaron Hicks?
    [/TD]

    [/TABLE]
    Denard Span is an above average defender, and has matured into a good leadoff hitter. He was having one of his best seasons in 2011 before a concussion deralied him, but we hope he'll bounce back in 2012. He just turned 28, and is under contract for $3 million in 2012, $4.75 million in 2013, $6.5 million in 2014, and there is a $9 million team option in 2015 (with a $500,000 buyout). If Span is healthy and continues to perform, it seems like a reasonable contract. If Span plays in 2012 like he did the first few months of 2011, and shows that he is completely recovered from the concussion, it's also a contract that the Twins could move.
     
     
     
    Ben Revere, who will turn 24 in May, is speedy and can track down almost anything hit to center field, but lacks an arm (not physically lacks an arm, but it's almost that bad); he is at best a good contact hitter who can wreak havoc on the basepaths, and at worst a player that will only get on base 30 percent of the time. Importantly, he is still under team control for the near future.
     
     
    Joe Benson, also 24 this season, has the most potential for power among the centerfield group. He also is reportedly just a shade slower than Revere, which is impressive. He didn't look quite ready for the big leagues in his September call-up last season, with a .239/.270/.352 slash line, but he is still a very good outfield prospect.
     
     
    Finally, there is Aaron Hicks, age 22, the Twins' first round (14th overall) draft pick from 2008. It's not an understatement to say that Hicks' star has fallen. Baseball America rated him the 19th best prospect pre-2010, the 45th best prospect pre-2011, and the 72nd best prospect pre-2012. That's not the direction Twins fans would like to see Hicks moving on the prospect charts. In 2012, he also vanished from Baseball America's top 10 outfield prospect list, which is not a good sign. All that being said, he is one of the Twins' top prospects, and he is expected to see a promotion to AA New Britain this year (at least according to Bill Smith).
     
     
    My point in outlining these players is that, even if none ever become stars, the center field position is perhaps the deepest in terms of talent for the Twins. And interestingly, three of the four players listed are within roughly two years of age. Aside from Span, the veteran, we're talking about 22-24 year old prospects. Finally, Hicks is the only one without a day of major league service time, so to an extent (a small extent for Benson), they have been MLB-tested.
     
     
    It's tough to imagine all four players being in the Twins organization two years from now. By that time, Benson will be 26 and will either be playing centerfield, which would be the best use of his speed and arm, or a corner outfield position. I have no doubt he's next in line for a promotion. Who knows where Revere will be? I still believe he can be a good (but not great) major league outfielder, but he will need to show major plate discipline this season, as well as the ability to bunt successfully. Hicks needs to have a solid and consistent season in order to regain his status as a Twins top prospect. And Span needs to stay healthy.
     
     
    There are two things that excite me about this group of players. First is the prospect of having Span and Benson in the same outfield. I think it could be great defensively and offensively. The second thing is the prospect of trading one of these guys for something the Twins desperately need, such as pitching. It would be great if the Twins could make a "sell high" trade, if they come the realization that there are not enough outfield positions for the number of established major league outfielders, and legitimate major league outfield prospects, currently in the organization. Of course, we'd have to avoid a Wilson Ramos-type trade, but given these 4 players, the odds of that kind of an error in judgment don't seem quite as high.
     
     
    I'm curious to hear your thoughts. If Benson is good at AAA Rochester this season, how long can we keep him there -- and whose place does he take in Minnesota? Could we get anything on the trade market for Revere? And if Hicks has a great season between A and AA in 2012, what do we do if he suddenly re-emerges as our #1 outfield prospect?
  3. Twins Fan From Afar
    [Originally posted at Twins Fan From Afar]
     
    Most of us remember Kent Hrbek for his lumbering physique, affable nature, power swing, underrated defense and, of course, his roles on the 1987 and 1991 World Series teams. Do you remember how his career came to an end? I bet some of you do, but others might have been too young (gasp!) to recall. Hrbek was 34 years old for most of the 1994 baseball season. Though he had been healthy and productive most of his career, injuries and age (code for "weight" and "not taking great care of yourself once your metabolism slows down") started taking their toll on him following the 1991 season. He batted .284 in 1991, .244 in 1992, and .242 in 1993.
     
     
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    http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-GUmeaAUMTfc/T2PlSBKzn1I/AAAAAAAAAMw/d-gV4mTUnzM/s320/Hrbek.jpg


    [TD=class: tr-caption]I wish they would bring these jerseys back.
    Maybe with buttons, though.
    [/TD]

    [/TABLE]
    1994, of course, was the year that there was no postseason due to the baseball strike. The strike began on August 12, 1994, and lasted until April 2, 1995. As a 14 year old, I was just old enough to begin to understand some of the economics, but still young enough not to understand how the heck baseball could be cancelled.
     
    Hrbek played in 81 games in 1994, and put together a decent season for a guy whose best days were clearly behind him. He ended up with a .270/.353/.420 slash line, hit 10 home runs, and drove in 53 runs. The Twins finished in 4th place that season, at 53-60. Their last game that season was August 10, home at the Metrodome, against the Red Sox, who, like the Twins, finished 4th in their division with a 54-61 record. The Twins ended up winning big, 17-7. Hrbek batted 6th in the order. In fact, the starting lineup was pretty decent:
     
    Chuck Knoblauch 2B.
    Scott Leius 3B.
    Kirby Puckett RF.
    Shane Mack CF.
    Dave Winfield DH.
    Kent Hrbek 1B.
    Pedro Munoz LF.
    Matt Walbeck C.
    Pat Meares SS.
     
    Hrbek played the entire game. Here's how his night went:
     
    In the first inning, Hrbie came up with two outs and the bases loaded . . . and was hit by a pitch, scoring buddy Puckett. The Twins take a 1-0 lead, and Hrbek gets credited with an RBI (and probably also gets a bruise somewhere).
     
    This was not a defensive struggle, and Hrbek led off the third inning, the Twins up 5-3 by now. He took a called third against Scott Bankhead, the second pitcher of the night for the Red Sox. In fact, Hrbek's third at-bat, in the fifth inning, wasn't much better. The Twins were leading 9-3. Hrbek struck out swinging to end a scoring threat, stranding Puckett on third, Mack on second, and Jeff Reboulet (in as a sub) on first. But don't worry -- Hrbek would redeem himself.
     
    By the seventh inning, the Red Sox had made it a game. Mo Vaughn had just homered off of Mike Trombley in the top of seventh to bring the Sox within two runs. Hrbek came to the plate, again with the bases loaded. Puckett was on third, Mack on second, and Reboulet had just bunted for a single. On a 2-1 count, Hrbek laced a line drive single past second base, scoring Puckett and Mack. He would later score on a Pat Meares single.
     
    The Twins would actually bat around in that seventh inning. Hrbek came up again, but by now the Twins were up 17-7. He flew out to center field on the second pitch he saw. That would be his last career at-bat. For the night, Hrbie ended up 1-for-5, with 3 RBIs and 2 strikeouts. He was also credited with 11 put-outs and 1 assist on defense. It's interesting that he came to bat 3 times with the bases loaded in a single game. And that hit-by-pitch in the first inning -- it was the only time he was hit that entire season.
     
    I wonder if Hrbek had 100 percent decided that he would indeed retire after that game -- if he knew that August 10, 1994 would be the last time he would wear #14 as a player? What do you think he did after the game? My guess would be beers and pranks in the clubhouse with Puckett and some of the other guys (Hrbek never seemed a somber one), but given the fact that the strike was commencing, who knows if the players were even allowed to linger like they normally would.
     
    It's easy to remember Puckett's final at-bat, unfortunately, because he was hit in the face with a Dennis Martinez fastball. It's easy to remember
    , September 28, 1960, because he hit a home run in Boston, beyond that cavernous Bermuda triangle near center field. Not to imply that Hrbek was on the same level as Puckett or Williams, but he was important, and remains important, in Twins Territory. His career ended in strange circumstances. Sure, the Twins weren't going to win the division and go to the playoffs, but perhaps Hrbek (and the other players that saw their last MLB action in August, 1994) wish they left the game under different circumstances. Hrbek, at least, received a much better sendoff the very next season, after the strike ended, when the Twins retired #14, and he officially became a legend in Minnesota Twins history.
  4. Twins Fan From Afar
    [Originally posted at Twins Fan From Afar]
     
    Much has been made over the past year or so of the physical injuries suffered by the Twins, especially injuries to Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Denard Span and, to a lesser extent Francisco Liriano. All of these players had a tough time staying in the lineup last season, and we are hoping for better health this year. But that might only be half the battle.
     
     
    In yesterday's Spring Training game, for example, Liriano was perfect for two innings (striking out three), then imploded in the third inning, giving up four runs very quickly. "I started rushing like I always do," Liriano was quoted as saying. He also stated, "I can't get mad at myself like that."
     
     
    http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-psK1LYi3U4Q/T2CXcaRSW2I/AAAAAAAAAMY/1BQwC8PgZv8/s1600/psychologist.bmpThen there's Mauer, who hit 28 home runs in a shortened 2009 season, and who has hardly hit any since then. It's abundantly clear that the not-so-friendly confines of Target Field have gotten in his head. I can scarcely remember Mauer pulling a ball in Target Field that even looked close to becoming a home run; rather, it seems that has become a singles and doubles hitter, with the occasional home run (on the road, no less). Would this change have occurred even if the Twins had stayed in the Metrodome, or was this brought on by Target Field? Or was it some combination in between?
     
     
    Finally, Span and Morneau are both recovering from concussions. The pair has been playing hard all spring, and despite the fact that Span sat out the last couple games with neck pain, there has been no indication that either is suffering from post-concussion symptoms -- right now. But you have to wonder what's going on inside their heads. We all know, because Morneau told us, that he is essentially one injury away from retiring. Span, though younger and with less of a history of concussions, has had a tough road to recovery, as well. Certainly, these players -- arguably the core of the Twins -- are thinking about more than balls, strikes, and what restaurant they're going to after the game.
     
    As far as I can tell, the Twins do not employ a full-time sports psychologist. A computer search reveals a few websites for professional sports psychologists that have consulted with the Twins. The Twins website listing their front office personnel notes four physicians: two orthopedic surgeons, and two preventative/occupational medicine specialists. There are also two trainers and one strength and conditioning coordinator. It appears that the physicians all have their own individual practices, which is no surprise, but as far as I know, the trainers and strength coordinator are full-time Twins employees. In other words, there are seven professionals on the Twins' payroll that deal exclusively with the body, but not one that is trained in dealing with the mind.
     
    Might it be a good idea to staff a full-time sports psychologist for this team? I can't see the harm. We have a would-be ace pitcher who is consistently inconsistent and gets too amped up, even for Spring Training games; a former MVP whose power has taken a nosedive after his team moved stadiums; and two very good players that are enduring a difficult physical and mental period. Granted, these players are all multi-millionaires, represented by premiere sports agencies, and have, at their disposal, access to first rate medical care across the globe. But just maybe, when the team is on the road, say in Kansas City, and it's two in the morning, and Morneau can't sleep because something is plaguing him, might it not be useful for the Twins to have a trained and experienced professional sports psychologist just down the hall at the team hotel? Or, think about Liriano, pitching in an important nationally televised game against the Tigers in August, with the Twins just two games back in the division. It's a situation where, if history is any indication, Liriano might be too amped up to be successful. Having someone on staff -- someone that can talk about something other that sliders, shoulders and arm angles -- seems potentially valuable to me. For all the money the Twins have spent on player payroll, and even on insurance for certain player contracts, it might be beneficial to bring a psychologist into the fold.
     
    What do you think? As always, I'm happy to hear your thoughts.
  5. Twins Fan From Afar
    [Originally posted at Twins Fan From Afar]
     
    The Twins had some encouraging Spring Training results over the weekend. I realize that Spring Training games don't count for anything -- they are, in fact, for "training." That's why you see guys taking a lot of pitches, just trying to get their timing down, or you might see a pitcher throw a curveball five times in a row. These guys are trying to get ready for the season, not trying to set Grapefruit League records. But still, tangible results are always nice, and Danny Valencia had a good weekend. Valencia hit two home runs and a double in two games. In those two games combined, he was 3-for-6 with 4 runs batted in. And it wasn't just that he was hitting the ball; he was hitting it hard and far, judging from the replays. At the very least, it's nice to see him locked in this early in the season. I hope he keeps it up!
     
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    http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Xj29Kdw64WM/T13xmFgp8hI/AAAAAAAAAMQ/jKE-7fGGOig/s1600/Valencia.bmp


    [TD=class: tr-caption]I bet you didn't
    know that Valencia
    attended the
    U of Miami
    [/TD]

    [/TABLE]
    
    In 2010, of course, Valencia impressed most of us, with a .311/.351/.448 slash line in 85 games after a mid-season call up. He was also third in rookie of the year voting. 2011 wasn't so great. In what could be described as a textbook sophomore slump, Valencia regressed to .246/.294/.383. Though he was healthy the entire season, which in and of itself was "highlight-worthy" for the 2011 Twins, Valencia did not impress. He defense was not reliable (he had the second most errors at third base), he did not consistently take good at-bats, and he came off as arrogant in the press.
     
     
     
    Quite frankly, I don't care at all that Valencia went to the University of Miami, and I suspect that his teammates, manager and coaches don't either. I can absolutely see how, over the course of a 162 game season, Valencia rubbed some in the Twins' organization the wrong way. But still, it's fair to note that Valencia was at least healthy and on the field, even if he wasn't fantastic. Last year, Ron Gardenhire was quick to throw Valencia under the bus, when sometimes there were other parties that were equally, if not more, guilty of bad baseball transgressions. For whatever reason, Valencia was often in the doghouse. At that time, I suggested that Gardy lay off of Valencia (publicly, at least). Looking back, however, maybe Valencia needed to be taken down a couple pegs in the press, even if he didn't always deserve it. I seriously doubt that Valencia feels less full of himself now than he did last year, but perhaps his second full season will bring greater maturity. After all, he's not young -- 27 this season -- and he's been in the show for about 18 months now. And after the departure of several veterans in the past few months, he's starting to climb the Twins' seniority ladder.
     
     
    For 2012, I don't know that we can expect Valencia to be a .300 hitter. After last season, .275 would look pretty good in comparison. And, to be honest, if Miguel Sano keeps maturing into the ballplayer that everyone expects him to become, Valencia's time at third base is probably limited to the next 2-3 seasons. Sure, Valencia developing into a complete ballplayer would be fantastic, and I would never suggest that having talented players on the field is bad, but Valencia was never a blue chip prospect to begin with: he never even hit .300 in AA or AAA. But I hope that Valenica shows a little more maturity this year, that he stays out of the doghouse (whether deserved or undeserved), and that the reported hard work he has been putting in this offseason pays dividends. It's funny -- for as much as people (especially bloggers, myself included) talk about Mauer, Morneau, Liriano and Span -- Valencia could be just as important a cog if he put together a great season. He'll likely never be a 40 home run per year guy, but he has shown flashes of greatness, as well as the ability to hit in the clutch. He certainly has talked the talk, maybe in 2012 he will walk the walk. I'd be content with a .275/.350/.445 season out of Valencia, accompanied by stable defense.
  6. Twins Fan From Afar
    [Originally posted at Twins Fan From Afar]
     
    The Twins' offense hasn't really showed up this far in Spring Training, but yesterday, Francisco Liriano had a great 3-inning start against Tampa Bay, striking out five and, most importantly, walking none. Additionally, the three innings took only 34 pitches to get through. Sure, many in Tampa Bay's lineup weren't major league hitters, but it's still encouraging and hopefully is a sign of things to come.
     
     
    The big Twins news yesterday, of course, was that the Twins and left reliever Glen Perkins agreed to a 3-year, $10.3 million extension, which keeps him in a Twins uniform through 2015, with a team option for 2016. This should prove to be a great signing, I think. First, if last year (and this year, so far) has taught us anything, it's that you simply cannot completely destruct a bullpen and easily rebuild it from scratch -- there has to be some continuity, some returning veterans. This contract ensures a veteran bullpen presence for the foreseeable future. Second, the value of the contract is reasonable, especially if Perkins pitches at the same level he did most of 2011. Third, although the contract reportedly contains escalators if Perkins finishes games (takes over as closer), his base salary for 2014 and 2015 is only $3.75 million. In other words, even if you tack on, say, an extra $1 million if Perkins ends up assuming the closer's role in another couple years, $4.75 million for a (hopefully) effective closer is a bargain for the Twins. And even if Perkins just continues to be the late-inning, high-leverage situation guy for the Twins, which is, for now, where I think he's most valuable to the Twins, it's still a great contract. Now I look for Perkins to take that next step and really become a bullpen and clubhouse leader. Congratulations, Glen.
     
     
    It was a busy week for the Twins, and also for Twins bloggers. Here are a few links that I enjoyed reading this past week.
     
     
    First, respected Twins' veteran blogger Aaron Gleeman lost 150 pounds this year. Amazing. Congratulations, Aaron.!
     
     
    Capital Babs from Knuckleballs is at Spring Training right now, and on her honeymoon. She has some good pictures and posts from attending the Twins' B-game, which really featured a lot of the A-lineup.
     
     
    NoDak Twins Fan analyzes the scenarios under which the Twins could either keep Francisco Liriano through all of 2012, or trade him before the deadline. Personally, it's a lot easier for me to imagine the scenarios where we trade Liriano, than it is to imagine the scenarios where we keep him, especially as he nears free agency. Time will tell.
     
     
    John J. Parent at Call to the Pen wrote a great season preview for the Twins. Spoiler alert -- he's concerned with the health of Mauer and Morneau. This is a very well done piece.
     
     
    The Common Man reviews MLB 12 the Show, which is about the only video game series that I enjoy playing. I think I might save the $60 and not buy it this year, though, as I bet the Twins are pretty awful in it.
     
     
    Last but not least, Minnesota's own Lindsay Guentzel was selected for the starting 9 in MLB's 2012 Fancave. Some of the other winners include Yankees and Braves fans, so things could get ugly fast. In all seriousness, though, this is a big deal, and hopefully will help Lindsay in her journalism career. Congratulations, Lindsay!
  7. Twins Fan From Afar
    [Originally published at Twins Fan From Afar]
     
    All the reports have been great. He woke up early for the first day of training camp, lost a little weight, has participated in all drills, and stands ready, today, to play in back-to-back games. From the little that I have watched, he appears healthy (if a little thin) and alert, and his swing looks as good as it did at any point last year (maybe that's not saying a lot, but you have to take the positives where they come). In short, if you didn't know any better, Justin Morneau looks like any other baseball player getting ready for the 2012 season. But we do know better, and so does Justin.
     
     
    At the beginning of many romantic relationships, there is the so-called "honeymoon period." You know -- that time when everything feels just great, you think that you've found the perfect partner, and believe that nothing will ever change. **Cue the Tony Bennett music and the sounds of birds chirping** Well, for most couples, even those that persevere, the honeymoon periods ends at some point. Some of those things that were once cute and funny about your partner eventually became annoying; you realize that they aren't, in fact, perfect; and sometimes they simply drive you nuts.
     
     
    I'm worried that some Twins fans, myself included, are in the midst of a honeymoon period -- another honeymoon period -- with Justin Morneau. The pure Twins fan in me, the human side of me, wants more than anything to see him just have a healthy season, whether he bats .245 or .345. That same side of me craves Star Tribune, Pioneer Press, ESPN and AP articles that support that belief. I even look for pictures, like the picture below, to provide documentation for the proposition that Morneau is, in fact, healthy and in Florida.
     
     
    
    [TABLE=class: tr-caption-container, align: center]


    http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-zVg00Ru5hNo/T1gZINF2zLI/AAAAAAAAAMI/nOR0RJ0NhlY/s320/Morneau.jpg


    [TD=class: tr-caption]Pioneer Press photographer Chris Polydoroff captures Justin
    Morneau and, is that Joe Mauer catching a bullpen session?
    [/TD]

    [/TABLE]
    Even watching the Twins-Red Sox game a couple nights ago, I was looking for the positive in everything that Morneau did. In his first at-bat that ended with a routine ground out to second base, I focused instead on the hard foul he hit down the right field line ("he made solid contact there," I told my wife). Even on defense, when he threw a ball into a runner going to second base, I thought, "well, at least it was a good pick-up to make the play at first base." Clearly, I'm still in the honeymoon period. Who knows what I'm going to think if/when he actually does start to hit home runs and doubles, and if he reemerges as the great defensive first baseman that he had worked so hard to become.
     
     
    The realist in me -- the part of me that is an analyst, and, well, an adult -- is worried about what happens when that honeymoon period ends. I know it's inevitable at some point. The head, the wrist, or the knees, are bound to act up. Or some other, not-yet-existing injury, could come to light. Even if Morneau is reasonably healthy, there eventually will be some sort of headline after a game or workout, reading, "Morneau to take Thursday off, citing wrist pain." What will we think then? Probably the worst -- and with good reason. There have been very few issues for Morneau in the last couple years that have not become serious, to the point of eventually requiring surgery or time on the disabled list.
     
     
    But for right now, this fan is content living in the delusional honeymoon period. It's March, it's sunny in Florida, and Opening Day is now less than a month away.
  8. Twins Fan From Afar
    [Originally posted at Twins Fan From Afar]
     
    I try to be a (mostly) practical Twins fan. I knew the Twins would never go after Albert Pujols. Last year, I wrote that I thought that Jose Reyes would be a good fit at shortstop, but realistically knew that the pieces would never fall into place for him to come to Minnesota. And, now I'm optimistic about Brian Dozier. Sure, I guess it's fun to dream (and even write) about those big free agent signings every now and then, but that doesn't seem, for a Twins fan, to be a very productive use of time.
     
     
     
    http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-PRG2U2qNtqM/T1YRZOWXDpI/AAAAAAAAAL4/_HVsEi2Oo84/s1600/Twins.bmpFor 2012, the Twins seemed very locked into the $100 million payroll. I'm not by any means fine with that, and have serious concerns about the starting rotation and the bullpen. But I'm more or less at piece with it: the payroll, and the team, are what they are, and there's nothing I can write that would have made Terry Ryan make a push for, say, C.J. Wilson (though, I'm not sure that Wilson will be worth what he got from the Angels, anyway), or Mark Buehrle.
     
     
     
    But because we're fans, and we don't have to live in the here and now in the same way that Terry Ryan, Rob Antony and Ron Gardenhire do, I want to pose a question: If you, as General Manager for a day, could UNDO any one move made by the Twins in the last few years, or MAKE a move that the Twins failed to make, what would it be? I'm thinking about player acquisitions, letting certain free agents depart, picking up or declining options, trades that shouldn't have been made -- that sort of thing. But be creative. And, extra points if you explain what you would have done instead. It's easy to criticize, but often is difficult to find alternative practical solutions.
     
     
    Here's mine: The Twins should have traded Francisco Liriano last year at this time, perhaps to the Yankees. Andrew Marchand at ESPN reported that Brian Cashman's offer to the Twins was Ivan Nova and Ramiero Pena for Liriano, and he suggested that the Yankees may have thrown in Joba Chamberlain to make a deal. A year ago, I was against the trade, because I, along with most of Twins Territory, was viewing Liriano as our de facto ace going forward after his very solid 2010 campaign. Well, with the benefit of hindsight, it might have made sense to sell high on Liriano -- especially if the Twins don't have much of an interest in extending his time with the team past 2012. Now, it seems that, either Liriano will have a good year and very well may price himself out of the Twins' range, or he will have another year of a 5-something ERA, and the Twins will be able to replace that spot in the order with many cheaper, and perhaps in-house, options. And Liriano will become a free agent after 2012, so the Twins will gain nothing if they let him finish the year in Minnesota and have no interest in re-signing him,
     
     
    I'd be happy to hear your ideas in the comments. Thanks for reading!
  9. Twins Fan From Afar
    http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-spxEoWvSljE/T1dnwKsK0qI/AAAAAAAAAMA/Si870g9dhMM/s320/Jersey.bmp[Originally posted at Twins Fan From Afar]
     
    I've written before, as have others, that Joe Mauer isn't only valuable to the Twins for his contributions as the star catcher and third batter in the lineup. Make no mistake, that's how he earns his paycheck, but it's also evident that, over the last few years, he has become his own brand. Even where I live, far removed from Twins Territory, I have noticed more Twins hats, and even the occasional Mauer jersey or t-shirt, than I did even five years ago. Sure, part of it is undoubtedly due to the presence of the New Britain Rock Cats, but part of it is simply because Joe Mauer is regarded as one of the best players in baseball and has helped popularize the Twins' brand (the team's success for most of the first decade of this century probably didn't hurt, either).
     
     
    For the 2010 season, Joe Mauer jerseys ranked as the second highest selling jersey in all of baseball, trailing only Derek Jeter. Damn Yankees. Roy Halladay, Chase Utley and Cliff Lee rounded out the top five. Without putting too much thought into it, I had assumed the Twins derived some specific financial benefit from the sale of so many Mauer jerseys. In turn, I had always credited Mauer's popularity with respect to apparel sales and revenue as part of his off-the-field value.
     
     
    I decided to look into this just a little bit more, and was a bit surprised at what I found. MLB's revenue sharing arrangement, part of which is comprised of a central revenue fund, gets its money from national TV and radio deals, the MLB network, and merchandise sales. Thereafter, the money in the central fund is distributed equally to the 30 teams. In 2009, for instance, each team received approximately $30 million from this arrangement (now, there also is another revenue pool that deals with local TV contracts, concessions and ticket sales -- and it is a large source of disagreement between small market and big market teams -- but that is another post for another day).
     
     
    In other words, the fact that more Joe Mauer jerseys are sold than almost any other jersey does not specifically benefit the Twins more than it benefits any other baseball team. Interestingly, the fact that Mauer jerseys are so popular might not even provide extra cash in Mauer's own pocket. The Major League Baseball Player's Association states, regarding player licensing revenue, that "[p]layers receive a pro rata share of licensing revenue regardless or stature," and that the amount of the share is dependent on that player's actual days of MLB service in a given season. But don't worry, fans, Joe has Gatorade, Nike and Head & Shoulders royalty checks coming in, so I'm sure he's able to afford gas to fill his Chevy, and the weekly Cub Foods trip.
     
     
    So, it might have been premature on my part to think that Joe Mauer jersey sales bring in a considerable amount of revenue for the Twins. That being said, a healthy Mauer does put people in seats, and those people purchase food and booze at Target Field, even if the team is not playing great. That is money in the Twins' pocketbook. Finally, I also don't think it's completely incorrect to give Mauer at least a tiny portion of the credit for helping the Twins land Target Field: yes, the deal was years in the making, and yes, taxpayers prettymuch footed the bill, but it's a lot easier to sell a fan base on a new stadium when the team is winning -- as the Twins did several times in the years leading up to 2010 -- than when it is losing and being threatened with contraction. And there was no player more instrumental to many of those winning seasons than Mauer. The concept of "value" is tricky. Clearly, for franchise players like Mauer or Jeter, it extends beyond the foul lines.
  10. Twins Fan From Afar
    http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-qyh6vOiA6zE/T1S8a9F6iVI/AAAAAAAAALw/lCp-aYdUVdA/s1600/Liriano.bmp

    [Originally posted at Twins Fan From Afar]
     
    In the end, Francisco Liriano's pitching line yesterday looked fine on paper. He gave up no runs, walked one, and struck out two, in two innings. Still, though, even though this was his first start of the spring, I was left wanting a little bit more. The frustrating aspect of Liriano's outing, for me, was that 12 of his 25 pitches were balls. In the first inning, Liriano fell behind all three hitters, Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury and Cody Ross. Pedroia walked, but Liriano got Ellsbury to line into an unassisted double play at first, and struck out Ross on a nasty slider. The best aspect of the outing, though, was that Liriano settled down thereafter, and he averaged 12.5 pitches per inning. We all know that Liriano is much more effective if he doesn't get that pitch count up to 40+ after the first couple innings.
     
     
    I don't want to make too much out of Liriano's performance: it was his first outing; it's Spring Training; and he did not give up any runs. And the slider looked very good. But as usual with Liriano, I'm left wanting a bit more. I want to see him attack the strike zone early in the count. I've harped on Liriano and first pitch strikes before, and it probably has become an obsession with me. So forgive my indulgence. But I really do think it's one of the few things separating Liriano from taking that next step in his career (and, generally, just having better control overall). Call me crazy, but I think that veteran hitters like Dustin Pedroia are going up to bat in the first game of Spring Training looking to see some pitches, have good at-bats, and get their timing down. So Francisco, go ahead and throw a 90 MPH fastball on the outer half just to get ahead in the count!
     
     
    I thought Ben Revere looked good. I may be wrong, but in the three at-bats I saw him take, I don't recall him swinging at a first pitch. That's a good sign for a hitter that hopefully will someday become capable of taking on a leadoff role, and for a hitter that, last year, swung at a lot of first pitches, and needs to increase his on-base percentage. He was speedy on the basepaths, stealing second with ease in the first inning. Unfortunately, though, he was picked off of first base later in the game, thus negating, more or less, the stolen base. It's hard to complain, though, with a 2-4 day at the plate, a stolen base, and 2 RBIs.
     
     
    Finally, there was a scary moment, when Ray Chang slid into second base and appeared to hit his head on the leg or knee of the shortstop. If you haven't seen the play, you don't have to watch it: it looked very much like Justin Morneau's July, 2010 slide that caused his infamous concussion. Here's hoping that Chang feels fine today when he wakes up. For what it's worth, Chang was having a good game, going 1-1 with 2 walks (both on full counts) and a stolen base, and looking good at second base. I don't know if he's our second baseman of the future, but I did like what I saw of him last season in New Britain.
     
     
    Thanks to my east coast proximity, I will be enjoying at least part of tonight's Twins-Red Sox game on NESN, and will be back with a report tomorrow.
  12. Twins Fan From Afar
    [Originally posted at Twins Fan From Afar]
     
    Whether the 2012 Twins can even be a .500 team largely rests on the ample shoulders of Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau. Let yourself think -- just for a second -- about how fun things could be if our 3-4 hitters were healthy and productive all season long. Thus far -- yes, I know players just showed up a week or so ago -- the early reports are positive. Justin Morneau took Francisco Liriano deep in batting practice, and hasn't had to sit out of any practice or drills. Joe Mauer has caught several bullpen sessions, participated in everything, and looks and sounds completely different than he did last year at this time. Denard Span collided with the center field wall yesterday, but feels OK thus far. For most Twins fans, these few snippets have to be at least a little encouraging. Not to imply that everything else is just details, but at the very least, there's room for optimism this March.
     
     
    Now, onto Friday's links.
     
     
    Jim Crikket over at Knuckleballs had an insightful post on Ryan Braun's issues, and Crikket's conclusion is that a movie must be made about this ordeal. It's hard to disagree. I heard that the role of Braun's urine sample will be played by Pauley Shore.
     
     
    NoDak Twins fan noted that the Twins' early schedule is quite intimidating, featuring several AL East and AL West opponents. I'm glad that I'll see them against the Orioles.
     
     
    Minnesota Twins Musings notes the great payroll debate in New York right now, as GM Brian Cashman has pledged to lower payroll in the next couple years.
     
     
    On the Road with Shawn implores Joel Zumaya not to retire, for fear that Zumaya will end up like the rest of us!
     
     
    The Tenth Inning Stretch had a great recap of yesterday's Twins B Game. The "Twins" (Rochester Redwings, mostly) beat the "Red Sox," (Pawtucket Red Sox, mostly) and new Twin Aaron Bates hit a home run.
     
     
    Michael Cuddyer is up to his old tricks -- literally.
     
     
     
    Finally, Jim Souhan at the Star Tribune continues to remind me of Walter Matthau in Grumpy Old Men. Jim, your company lets you go to Florida and write about baseball. If you don't want that assignment, I can think of about 100 Twins bloggers who would love it.
     
     
     
     

    http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-knzBgxSlnqI/T1Anf6AbfcI/AAAAAAAAALo/7kErE1CBQpk/s1600/Grumpy+Old+Men.jpg

  13. Twins Fan From Afar
    http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-6xAQtqLanLE/T04jPTt5KqI/AAAAAAAAALY/QFZxCYIYvL4/s320/Mauer.bmp

    [Originally posted at my blog, Twins Fan From Afar]
     
    It's often said that balance is necessary in order to understand the universe. How can you define "hot" without understanding "cold," contemplate "good" without a concept of "evil," or truly appreciate a nice Napa Valley Cabernet Sauvignon without having a few boxes of Franzia wine in your past?
     
     
    Joe Mauer has spoiled the Twins and their fans for much of his professional career. He exceeded most reasonable expectations, and he met even most unreasonable expectations. He mostly stayed out of the spotlight for the first several years of his career, despite being an All-Star. Sure, Gatorade, Head & Shoulders and MLB the Show came calling, but until 2011, no one really cared. And he kept clear of negative press -- have you ever heard Mauer say a negative word about anyone, or read a story about him showing up drunk at a club in the offseason?
     
     
    If you believe that the Fangraphs "value" indicator is of any merit, Joe Mauer has provided $145.8 million in value to the Twins during his career, while being paid significantly less -- $57 million in total through 2011. Unfortunately, 40 percent of Mauer's career salary came in 2011, undoubtedly his worst season as a professional baseball player. Of that $23 million paid out in salary, the Twins received only $7.9 million in value. It should come as no surprise that an All-Star catcher isn't worth very much money if he isn't catching, if he isn't at Target Field in the lineup, or if he isn't even traveling with the team, all of which were the case at various points in 2011.
     
     
    If nothing else, Mauer's 2011 underscored just how valuable he is to the Twins when healthy, and how much of a game-changer is, when healthy. I don't care so much about the home runs. In fact, Fangraphs suggests that Mauer was worth $22.4 million in 2010 to the Twins, when he only hit 9 home runs, drove in 75 runners, and had a .327/.402/.469 slash line -- remarkably similar to his career line of .323/.403/.471. Clearly, much of his value is tied up in defense at the all-important position of catcher. The fact that he has a career .874 OPS is icing on the cake.
     
     
    I'm not suggesting that Mauer's contributions to the Twins were a complete surprise, or were simply a "lucky break" for fans: he was the first overall draft pick in 2001 and was expected to be a star; us fans pay him very, very well to be one of the best players in the game; and he finagled a huge contract out of the Twins' ownership. I am, however, suggesting that I'm going into 2012 with a newfound appreciation for just how great Joe Mauer has been for the first half of his career.
     
     
    In my experience, there's a better appreciation for a new job or pay raise if you have ever been laid off, demoted, underemployed, or have taken a pay cut; there's a better appreciation for making a sports team and receiving that coveted jersey if you have ever scanned the final roster of names, only to find that yours isn't on the list; and there's a better appreciation for the feeling of being accepted to a college if you have ever received a thin rejection envelope in the mail. Sure, it would be nice if life didn't work that way, but that's not reality. Similarly, with respect to Mauer, perhaps his 2011 puts the rest of his career in better perspective.
     
     
    If you're curious, Thrylos98 at the Tenth Inning Stretch has been doing some fantastic lists and rankings of all-time great Twins. For instance, he attempts to rank the all-time Twins most valuable player here, chronicles the season and career Twins OPS leaders here, and rates the franchise season and career slugging percentage leaders here. If you haven't, you should read these posts. But, even if you don't read this great work, I can cut to the chase for you: Mauer fares very, very well on all lists. In other words, halfway into his career, Mauer is already one of the best Twins -- ever.
     
     
    Joe Mauer still has a lot of work to do in order to re-build his reputation as one of the game's best. He has to stay healthy, he has to catch regularly, and he has to bat over .300 in order to provide great "value" to the Twins -- whatever you definition of that word. But if there's one thing I can take from everything that was awful about Mauer's 2011, it's that it made me appreciate how great 2004-2010 were.
     
     
    Twins fans -- and Mauer himself -- perhaps needed his 2011 season to happen. Without struggle, failure, and the realization that he is indeed aging as an athlete, fans might never have the opportunity to look at -- and appreciate -- 2004-2010 in a new light. And Mauer might not be coming into the second half of his career with a chip on his shoulder. Most overpaid veterans don't believe that they have something to prove going into Spring Training, but everything I have read the past several weeks suggests that Mauer is ready, perhaps for the first time, to shut critics up. Sure, I wish that Mauer's 2011 had been just as great as his 2004-2010, but that's not life. And because of that 2011, I think that fans are going to see a Joe Mauer in 2012 who, although familiar and friendly, will come ready to rebuild his reputation and lead the Twins into (hopefully) the next generation of competitiveness.
  14. Twins Fan From Afar
    [Originally posted at Twins Fan From Afar]
     
    The Twins are in a sort of interesting position when it comes to Joel Zumaya. Somewhat unsurprisingly, the firethrowing righty didn't make it past one of his first batting practice sessions last week, and now needs decide whether, at age 27, to retire and become a professional fisherman (apparently he is enough of a realist to understand that becoming a professional on Guitar Hero was not going to happen), or to opt for Tommy John surgery and attempt another comeback.
     
    http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-b-Fvx5cL8Yw/T094oPXhiTI/AAAAAAAAALg/KbHs85tnC4c/s1600/Zumaya.bmp
     
    Technically, Zumaya is still in the Twins' fold. I still think it was a good move signing him, and the $400,000 is negligible in the grand scheme of things. We can debate whether the Twins should have had a back-up option with solid MLB experience, but that's for another day. Although Zumaya is a young, successful millionaire, like the rest of professional athletes, I do feel bad for the guy: he has had so many surgeries, and adding Tommy John to the list reportedly would be his 6th surgical procedure in as many years. You can understand why he might want to hang up the cleats in exchange for a nice Ranger boat and a pair of those oversized sunglasses.
     
    But there might be more to the story. What if Zumaya has Tommy John surgery next week? According to one source, the average recovery time from surgery to full competition mode is 11.6 months. That sounds about right. That would put Zumaya out for the 2012 season, of course, but capable of pitching in 2013. Could Terry Ryan and company help convince Zumaya to have the surgery, keep him off the 40 man roster for the year, and offer a similar, low-risk high-reward contract for 2013?
     
    I think it's at least worth considering. If there's one thing the Twins' training staff has recent experience in, it's helping pitchers rebound from Tommy John surgery (see Nathan, Joe; Liriano, Francisco; Neshek, Pat). Of course, such a proposition -- especially with Zumaya -- has a good chance of turning into an annual Charlie-Brown-getting-the-football-yanked-by-Lucy-as-he-goes-to-kick-it sort of thing, but even next year, this team would still have use for a guy that can throw 100 mph (note to Twins: explain to Zumaya that he will be expected to throw more than 13 pitches this time around).
     
    In the end, it might make more sense from Zumaya's perspective to simply retire. I'm sure it is mentally exhausting for both he and his family to go through all these medical issues each and every year. But on the other hand, Zumaya still could be a great -- and dirt cheap -- pickup for the Twins. He's like an unscratched $1 lottery ticket with 1 in 100 odds. How many times do purchase a ticket, and not win, before you give up on the game?
     
    What do you think? Assume for right now that Zumaya is undecided on retirement. Do you try to convince him to get the surgery and come back to the Twins next year for close to league minimum, or do you cut ties now and wish him good luck?
  15. Twins Fan From Afar
    http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-v0fuwzoau8g/T00s3AYerOI/AAAAAAAAALQ/VyO94XGtCr0/s1600/Rock+Cats.bmp

    [Originally posted at my blog, http://twinsfanfromafar.blogspot.com]
     
    There is breaking Twins-related minor league news this afternoon in Central Connecticut, where it has been announced that the New Britain Rock Cats, which had done very well in the community and in terms of attendance, under owners Bill Dowling (former attorney for George Steinbrenner) and Coleman Levy (local attorney), is being sold to an investment group.
     
     
    DSF Group, the purchaser, is a real estate and sports investment firm, and also owns the New Hampshire Fisher Cats (same division as the Rock Cats and AA affiliate of the Blue Jays), and the Bowling Green Hot Rods (Class A affiliate of Tampa Bay Rays). Interestingly, John Willi, who left the helm as the Rock Cats' general manager in 2010 to take a position at DSF, will be returning to that post.
     
     
    I have a feeling that this is going to be an interesting story, especially as rumors have been floating around that the Rock Cats may change affiliation. I will be keeping track of this story and any further developments. But as a fan, as long as the ticket prices remain affordable, and the quality of baseball is good, I'll be happy to continue to support the Rock Cats.
     
     
    Here's the article from the Hartford Courant detailing the sale.
     
    (This blog has been promoted to the front page. Please feel free to comment here: http://www.twinsdaily.com/content.php?257-Breaking-Minor-League-News-New-Britain-Rock-Cats-Have-Been-Sold)
  16. Twins Fan From Afar
    [Originally posted at my blog, http://twinsfanfromafar.blogspot.com]
    I have to admit that I was quite surprised this past week to read that Seth Stohs, Parker Hagerman, John Bonnes and Nick Nelson -- the premier Twins bloggers that provide great Twinscentric content for the Star Tribune, among other publications -- had decided to give up their individual blogs and join forces. As I write that sentence, it almost sounds like something out of a comic book written for Twins geeks! They are now providing the great content, but for one individual website, Twinsdaily.com. Most of you who read this blog probably are already aware of the change, but for those few that weren't aware, well, now you are.
     
     
     
     

    http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-gc9uQGC8CNw/T0Y_wf27V3I/AAAAAAAAALI/fDC5G-13xJI/s320/untitled.bmp

     
     
    I recently started posting at Twinsdaily, and am very impressed with the content thus far. As expected, Seth, Parker, John and Nick are all doing their same things, but now other bloggers, such as myself, can post their articles so that we might attract new and different visitors, when compared to the same people that we know visit our personal blog every day. Already I've encountered some great Twins fans thanks to Twinsdaily. Moreover, Twins fans that don't have blogs -- and don't want one -- can still create and post content, and can also comment on other articles.
     
    The possibilities of Twinsdaily are pretty exciting to think about. First, the Star Tribune now has a paywall, so without a subscription, you can't really actively read the articles and comment on the baseball boards anymore. The Pioneer Press, whose coverage isn't great anyway, seems to have their comment board linked with Facebook. I'm not on Facebook, and never will be, and I suspect that there are at least a few others like me. In the end, Twinsdaily should allow more people to have a voice and to express an opinion on the Twins.
     
    I plan on attending both the New Britain Rock Cats opening night, and also two games of the Twins' opening series in Baltimore. I can post game recaps and pictures to Twinsdaily, and I can imagine that other fans will be doing the same thing throughout the professional season. Sure, I can do the same at my blog, and I certainly will, but it will be a good opportunity, I think, to reach out to other fans. In short, those of us with blogs can provide the same material, but to a larger platform, and there is an opportunity for those without Star Tribune subscriptions or Facebook accounts to have meaningful Twins-related conversations online.
     
    I'll be taking a break from blogging for the next few days, most likely. It's time for the annual winter trip to Minnesota, and hopefully a stop at the Twins Pro Shop in Roseville to check out the new gear for 2012. Maybe I can get a discount on that Jason Repko jersey I have been coveting.
  17. Twins Fan From Afar
    This is also posted at my blog, http://twinsfanfromafar.blogspot.com
     
    [TABLE=class: tr-caption-container, align: center]


    http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-zY5iHzx2Hj4/T0TsmozFw8I/AAAAAAAAALA/I5bVCCs5kto/s1600/Dozier.bmp


    [TD=class: tr-caption]Brian Dozier, Twins' shortstop of the future?
    [/TD]

    [/TABLE]
     
     
    I have advocated in the past my belief that the best place for Tsuyoshi Nishioka to start 2012 would be AA New Britain or AAA Rochester. Unlike the front office, I'm not willing to give him a complete mulligan for 2011. I recognize that the broken leg derailed his season, but even prior to that injury -- and also when he came back supposedly healthy -- he was clearly overmatched. It's great that he worked on strength and conditioning in the offseason, but I'm not sure that those things, alone, make him better for the Twins in 2012.
     
     
    From what I have read, the Twins will use Jamey Carroll as the everyday, starting shortstop (until he is eligible to begin collecting Social Security next season), and all signs point to Alexi Casilla getting the nod at second. The Twins have two more years left on Nishioka's contract, and roughly $6 million; that contract is untradeable right now. On the other hand, Twins shortstop prospect Brian Dozier had a great season at AA in 2011, and also performed very well in the Arizona Fall League. So we have one middle infield prospect, seemingly on the way up, and one major league middle infield player that, in my mind, needs to occupy a spot on some roster, somewhere, for the next two years before he is out of this organization.
     
     
    Like the Twins' front office, I'm thinking toward the future. I'm not at all confident that we're looking at a playoff team here, so I think it's important to make moves that, although not fantastic or sexy in the short-term, don't handcuff the team in the long-term. By 2014 or 2015, there could be a good new wave of players, including Miguel Sano and Kyle Gibson, and the starting 9 probably will look very, very different.
     
     
    With that being said, perhaps the best (or least worst) thing to do in 2012 is to have Nishioka be a bench player for the Twins, and give Dozier the starting SS job at Rochester for a full season -- or at least until he demonstrates that he's seen enough of AAA to be promoted. Having both Nishioka and Dozier on the same Rochester team simply doesn't make sense, especially if Dozier is the shortstop of the future for the Twins. I suppose the other option is to send Nishioka to New Britain, but based on Terry Ryan's comments that the team "wouldn't want to see it play out that way," with respect to sending Nishioka to Rochester, I have a feeling that such a New Britain assignment might not even be on the table. At the very least, it's definitely something to think about. I think the Twins' #1 priority with respect to this issue is setting themselves up to have a legitimate shortstop of the future, something they haven't had for a long time.
     
     
    I'd be happy to hear your comments and ideas -- I'm not at all an expert on the Twins' minor league system, and I know that some of you will have more insight.
  18. Twins Fan From Afar
    The way it seems right now, even with the optimism that accompanies Spring Training, it's tough to imagine the Twins hoisting the 2012 World Series trophy. In fact, I can't reasonably imagine the Twins having the AL Cy Young award winner on their pitching staff, or the AL MVP in their batting order. But there is one award that this team was built for: The Comeback Player of the Year.
     
     
    According to the criteria, the award is given to a player judged to have "re-emerged on the baseball field during a given season." It's worth noting, for no other reason than that it's sort of funny, that the award is sponsored by Viagra. Historically, Comeback Player award winners, not surprisingly, were sidelined much of the previous season before returning to glory. For example, Lance Berkman won the award for the NL in 2011, after having a fantastic season. But in 2010, he batted only .248 and needed a knee surgery. Jacoby Ellsbury -- for many a favorite for the 2011 MVP award -- locked up the AL Comeback Player award in 2011. If you recall, he only played 18 games in 2010, primarily the result of an early season collision that fractured several ribs. So to say that he came back bigtime in 2011 is an understatement. Our own Francisco Liriano won the award in 2010, and was likely cited for his "full" recovery from Tommy John surgery that sidelined him in 2007, and that took a few years from which to rebound.
     
     
     
    Doesn't this award just scream Twins in 2012? Here are a few odds-on favorites for the 2012 AL Comeback Player award.
     
     
     
    Joel Zumaya: He hasn't thrown a pitch in a major league game since June 28, 2010, when he suffered a non-displaced fracture to his elbow. Prior to that, Zumaya had a solid career, winning the setup man of the year award in 2006. He had a 2.58 ERA in 2010 prior to his injury, and, for his career, Zumaya has a 3.05 ERA. If he's somehow healthy this season, I don't have much doubt he could instantly come to the top of the list of Twins relievers. It would be a good comeback story, especially considering the painful way that Zumaya last exited a game.
     
     
     
    Joe Mauer: Since this award cites players for "re-emerg[ing] on the baseball field," it could rightfully be awarded to a player who, for several reasons, simply wasn't on the baseball field much in 2011. Whether it was the bilateral leg weakness that kept him out most of the first half of 2011, or the pneumonia that eventually sidelined him for good, Joe Mauer simply wasn't around much of last season. Reportedly, he spent a lot of time on the trainer's table, and even went to the Mayo Clinic for diagnosis and treatment. Sure, Mauer's story doesn't have the same appeal as, perhaps, Zumaya's, but it is worth mentioning. If Mauer can stay on the field, and remain healthy and productive this season, he could be a worthy candidate.
     
     
     
    Justin Morneau: Here's a guy I would love to see win the award. Sidelined the final month of the 2009 season with a stress fracture in his lower back, the second half of 2010 after suffering a concussion, and off-and-on in 2011 as a result of approximately 30 different injuries, this could actually be more of a "lifetime achievement comeback" award for Morneau. A win for Morneau would mean that he stayed healthy (which in turn would mean that he remained symptom-free from his concussions), and that he played good baseball. In fact, Morneau probably doesn't have to hit 30 home runs and drive in 120 RBIs to win this award. A decent season might be enough for him.
     
     
     
    Francisco Liriano: I'm pretty sure that simply being awful the previous season, in and of itself, doesn't qualify you for the award, but Liriano did have some time on the disabled list in 2011 -- in May, and again in August, if I recall. If, somehow, Liriano were to return to 2010 form, he might get some votes.
     
     
    In the end, it looks like it takes a special story, such as overcoming a serious injury, coupled with good on-the-field play the next season, to win this award. The Twins, though, do have some promising candidates. Perhaps all the maladies suffered in 2011 could mean hardware in 2012? I'm not sure what the award itself looks like, but the fact that it is sponsored by Viagra does raise a red flag.
  19. Twins Fan From Afar
    My article last week suggesting that the Twins trade Glen Perkins (for the right offer) is one of the most read things I've written. Although there were only a handful of comments at Twins Fan From Afar, over here at TwinsDaily there are nearly 200 comments (most of them well thought out). MLBTradeRumors also linked to the article, and it ran in the Star Tribune. In other words, more than the usual 5 found this article.
     
    I don't have anything to compare with for this week, so I'm going to beat the Glen Perkins horse until it's dead. Here are 7 more working titles about Perkins, all in various stages of completion. If you feel so inclined, submit your own titles and I will also consider writing about them.
     
    1) "Demote Glen Perkins."
     
    2) "Deport Glen Perkins."
     
    3) "How Glen Perkins is Singlehandedly Keeping Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano, Trevor May and Alex Meyer in the Minors."
     
    4) "Where was Glen Perkins when Dennis Martinez Hit Kirby Puckett with that Fastball in 1995? Oh That's Interesting No One Can Seem to Account for His Whereabouts."
     
    5) "How Glen Perkins Almost Cost the Twins the '91 World Series: Part 1 of 47."
     
    6) "Hey, Glen: Where's Your Birth Certificate? Are you Really Even `One of Us?'"
     
    7) "Source: `The Neckbeard is Artificial.'"
  25. Twins Fan From Afar
    Yes, I am aware that there are a couple weeks left in the season. But the Twins are dead. Dead as a door-nail. And they've been that way for months (years?). Shortly after this season comes to its pitiful end, the Twins' brass and field personnel will assemble, as they do every year, in Ft. Myers, for the organizational meetings. Among other topics, they will dissect the 2013 season, and what exactly caused this year's ineptitude.
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    [TD=class: tr-caption, align: center]Ron Gardenhire: 2002[/TD]

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    If Terry Ryan, Ron Gardenhire or Dave St. Peter needs to do some cramming on the Delta flight down south, what follows is a short(ish) list of causes for this season's horrid, embarrassing play. Make no mistake, this is not an exhaustive or detailed list. And I'm not adding very many stats this time around (it's 2013: if you need statistical support for my proposition that Darin Mastroianni wasn't spectacular offensively, check out any number of websites). Without further ado, and in no particular order of importance, here are my Cliff's Notes for the 2013 Twins Organizational Meetings.
    1. Aaron Hicks was Not Ready for Primetime
    The Twins made good trades, getting (potentially) quality arms for centerfielders Ben Revere and Denard Span. By getting rid of Revere and Span, however, the Twins' thrust Hicks into the spotlight. To be sure, he put on a good show at AA in 2012, and was dominant in Spring Training in 2013. But we know now -- hindsight being 20/20, of course -- that he was not ready for the major leagues. Yes, he had flashes of brilliance offensively, and was solid defensively, but this was too much, too soon, for Hicks, evidenced by the fact that he didn't earn a September call-up, and that the Twins selected a replacement-level centerfielder, Alex Presely, when they traded Justin Morneau to the Pittsburgh Pirates last month.
    2. Low Power in the Middle of the Order
    Josh Willingham, who had a career year in 2012, was injured for a significant part of 2013, and his power numbers dwindled. He'll end up at around 15 home runs, and will be lucky to get 55 RBIs (last season, on an equally bad team: 35 dingers, 110 RBIs). Justin Morneau was serviceable, but also lacked the power that Twins fans enjoyed for the better part of a decade. Joe Mauer was good before his concussion, but his "power numbers" (dingers/RBIs) weren't high, mostly because no one was on base in front of him. In short, the guys that were penciled-in as the Twins' 3-4-5 hitters didn't do the damage that was expected. Make no mistake, RBIs are very much a team stat -- so perhaps it's more appropriate to say that the Twins as a whole under-delivered in giving the meat of the order opportunities to do damage.
    3. Starting Pitching was Disgusting
    Terry Ryan got what he (while spending Pohlad family money) paid for. It makes me physically ill reciting Twins' starting pitching stats from this season, so I'm not going to. But it's basically what you would expect: way too many hits, way too few strikeouts, way too few guys getting deep into games, and a batch of guys that probably wouldn't deserve more than a "cup of coffee" at the major league level being given multiple starts with the Twins this season. One thing to note: Vance Worley -- who projected to be not fantastic, but serviceable, failed this season. I didn't see that coming, and it's probably not fair to blame the front office for that (but note, at the same time, that Trevor May -- a better pitcher under team control for more years -- was the larger piece in that trade as far as the future goes).
    4. Trevor Plouffe Showed Little Improvement
    The Twins have given Plouffe, now 27, every chance. I know -- he showed great promise last season (I was at one of those games last July where he was just on fire, and it was exciting). But so far, those couple months have been, more or less, a flash in the pan. Although his average is a little higher than it was last year (.252 to .235), the OPS is lower, the defense isn't as solid as the team would like, and I'm not even sure how dedicated Plouffe is to the game (not my opinion -- based on a smattering of articles/tweets the past couple seasons from those "in the know"). With Miguel Sano on the rise, 2013 would have been a good season for Plouffe to establish himself as the Twins' starting third baseman to beat. Now, I expect the competition will be on in March, 2013. Sure, Plouffe will be better defensively than Sano, but will Plouffe be able to compete with Sano's power, and, equally as important, Sano's desire -- desire to succeed, to improve on defense, to be an All-Star?
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    [TD=class: tr-caption, align: center]Ron Gardenhire: 2013[/TD]

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    5. No Help from the Top of the Order
    Aaron Hicks failed to get on base when the Twins gave him lead-off hitter duties. Here are some other guys that hit out of the 1-hole this season: Clete Thomas, Eduardo Escobar, Jamey Carroll, Alex Presley (and Brian Dozier, who really hasn't been bad in that position, but is an ideal 2-hole hitter). Not quite Denard Span-esque, huh? It's tough to give Dozier (when he's batting second, that is), Mauer, Morneau, Willingham, Oswaldo Arcia and Ryan Doumit the opportunity to do much damage with that rather pathetic crop of players occupying what is supposed to be a high on-base percentage spot in the lineup.
    6. Little Assistance from the Farm
    Long story short, when the Twins really needed talent to come up from their farm system and produce, they didn't get results. Yes, there were bright spots. In fact, I'm sure every guy called up this season performed well at some point. But in the aggregate, it was insufficient. Hicks, Kyle Gibson (remember the "Free Gibson" movement?), Chris Parmelee, Chris Colabello (I hesitate to even put him here -- I'm a big fan, he performed so well at New Britain and in Rochester, and he's been up-and-down so much in 2013 that the Rochester-to-Minneapolis flight attendants probably know him by name -- but I've been let down), and Oswaldo Arcia (who started off well, and is doing all right now, but had a horrid stretch that resulted in a demotion to AAA) haven't given the Twins the boost they needed this season. And I'm not going to mention the rest of the pitchers (but I am glaring at Liam Hendriks, and he knows it).
    7. No Top Prospect Forced their Way Up
    Don't get me wrong. Miguel Sano had a great, great season. He exceeded expectations. But in the end, he didn't deserve a call-up -- unless you believe his call-up would have been just for the fans this season (not an unreasonable proposition, by the way). Sano slowed down at AA, and was inconsistent (though powerful and exiting). Trevor May was stable, in the sense that he was uninjured, but was never good enough to warrant a promotion to AAA, much less the Twins. And the best pitching prospect, Alex Meyer, was limited because of injuries, thus never even entering the equation for a mid-or-late season promotion. I need to be measured in my observations, because Sano and Meyer were very, very good, and May did improve. But make no mistake, none of these guys really forced Terry Ryan's hand when it came to a September call-up. Accordingly, they were unable to breathe life into the dead MLB team. But maybe that's for the best. I'm not sure I want Miguel Sano's first game to be one where Mastroianni is batting leadoff and one where the Twins are about to lose their 90th game of the season in front of an "in-the-stands" Target Field crowd of 8,000.
    The end results: The Twins stopped playing meaningful games back in May or June. Again. Payroll decreased. Again. The Twins sold off an asset (Morneau). Fans stopped coming in person to the ballpark like they used to (even if they had paid for tickets in advance).
    There is hope in sight (a very good farm system), but I am not at all convinced that the talented prospects, alone, will bring relevance to this organization.
    As I mentioned, this was a non-exhaustive list. Please, leave a comment. Add your thoughts on what else factored into the Twins' failures this season.
    Thanks for reading.
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