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Matthew Lenz

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Blog Entries posted by Matthew Lenz

  1. Matthew Lenz
    On Monday, I wrote a quick hitter on my 2019 Twins Daily Twins Awards. Now, I want to do a quick rundown of my postseason roster.
     
    Catcher: Mitch Garver, Jason Castro
     
    It'll be interesting to see how much they split time in the postseason. Both have been good this year but Garver has been better.
     
    Infielders: CJ Cron, Luis Arraez, Jonathan Schoop, Jorge Polanco, Miguel Sano
     
    With Rocco saying that Arraez is progressing better than expected, I think he'll make the roster. He may not play on Friday but I think we'll see him sometime during this series.
     
    Outfielders: Eddie Rosario, Jake Cave, Max Kepler
     
    It won't happen, but I'd love to see a guy like Ian Miller on the roster for his speed. On this roster, the Twins don't have anyone in their lineup to pinch run if they need speed on the bases.
     
    Utility/DH: Marwin Gonzalez, Nelson Cruz, Ehire Adrianza or Willians Astudillo
     
    Adrianza, Gonzalez, and Astudillo are guys who can mostly play anywhere. The health of Adrianza makes it seem like he won't be on the roster, so I think Willians gets the 25th spot.
     
    Pitchers: Jose Berrios, Jake Odorizzi, Randy Dobnak, Trevor May, Tyler Duffey, Taylor Rogers, Zack Littell, Sergio Romo, Cody Stashak, Brusader Graterol, Lewis Thorpe, Devin Smeltzer, Kyle Gibson
     
    The first 11 are locks for me. Kyle Gibson, I'm not so confident in. It feels weird to not have Gibson on the postseason roster, as the most tenured Twin, but if he's not healthy and can't pitch well then he shouldn't be on the roster. It's that simple. I also wouldn't be totally against leaving Adrianza/Astudillo off the roster and adding another pitcher like Martin Perez, but with his struggles I don't think he brings as much value as an extra utility player.
     
    What does your postseason roster look like?
  2. Matthew Lenz
    Soon enough the 2019 Twins Daily Twins Awards will be published. I was excited to be part of the balloting process and wanted to release by ballot with quick explanations behind my decisions.
     
    Rookie of Year:
    1. Arraez
    2. Littell
    3. Harper
     
    I'll be shocked if Arraez isn't the unanimous first place vote. Littell definitely made his case, especially late, but Arraez was the spark plug in one of the best offenses in The League. The fact that Ryne Harper, who actually did okay, got my 3rd place vote shows how little the Twins relied on rookies this year.
     
    Most Improved:
    1. Garver
    2. Polanco
    3. Max Kepler
     
    In my opinion, this is a toss up for the three above. You could easily add Duffey to the mix here too. You'll see this reflected in my MVP voting but I was a catcher growing up and believe it's the most important position on the field, so Garver gets my vote. Kepler showed signs last year of big improvements, so I had Polanco over him.
     
    Pitcher of the Year:
    1. Rogers
    2. Duffey
    3. May
    4. Pineda
     
    Man, this was tough but throughout the year Rogers was the most consistent pitcher, and no I'm not just talking out of the bullpen. Duffey and May were two of the best relievers in baseball when it mattered most but if it wasn't for his suspension, Pineda probably would have been at number two for me.
     
    Most Valuable Player:
    1. Garver
    2. Kepler
    3. Polanco
    4. Cruz
    5. Sano
    6. Rogers
     
    Did I tell you have I a bias towards catchers? Honestly, my 1-4 could have been in any order but ultimately landed with Garver on top for reasons previously mentioned. Kepler over Polanco and Cruz because of the the defense he added and Polanco over Cruz for his defensive contributions although he had some really tough stretches this year. Sano would have been higher for me, probably #2 or #3, but just missed too many games at the beginning of the season. Rogers makes the list but that could have been recency bias as Eddie was in the midst of an ugly month of September. In general, I find it hard to give an MVP vote to a player who plays in so few games compared to offensive players.
     
    Would love to hear what your ballot would look like and what you think of mine!
  3. Matthew Lenz
    As the Twins get ready to finish up the four game series against the Blue Jays, Michael Pineda will take the mound for what will be his 4th start of the season. The early returns of his two-year contract have looked good so far as he was another cheap, low-risk signing by the Twins new management during the 2018 offseason. As we’ve seen how shaky our bullpen can be, much of the Twins success this year will rely on their starters and specifically could depend on what version of Pineda they get.
     
    Pineda exploded on the scene in 2011 with the Mariners as an All-Star and finished 5th in Rookie of the Year voting. Unfortunately, that success was short lived as he spent all of the 2012 and 2013 seasons recovering and rehabbing from a shoulder injury, which can be a career ending or altering injury for a pitcher. Prior to this injury he featured fastball that sat at 95 miles per hour, used an above average slider as his out pitch, and mixed in a circle change-up about 6-percent of the time. Brooks Baseball did count 23 “sinkers” in 2011 (and 36 for his career), but that’s not enough data to glean anything meaningful from and is likely a misinterpretation of the pitch that was actually thrown. After two lost seasons and a trade to the New York Yankees, Pineda finally returned to the mound for 509 innings from 2014 to 2017 before a partially torn ulnar collateral ligament required Tommy John Surgery and miss a season and half. In his time with the Yankees, his velocity never completely rebounded sitting at about 94 miles per hour and his slider didn’t have quite the same bite. Despite this his K-BB percentage held steady and converted in to a ground ball pitcher, although the added ground balls hurt his ERA a little bit which is evident by his xFIP being almost a full run better than his ERA. Velocity and movement are the two things that make a pitcher effective, but can also be less effective after a pitcher returns from an arm injury which has help us set some “norms” for what we we’re looking for from Pineda.
     
    To give it to you straight, the small sample we have on Pineda in 2019 looks good up front but the peripherals should leave you a little tentative. First thing that sticks out is that his fastball is sitting at 92 miles per hour, which isn’t too surprising as he is still getting back into things after recovering from Tommy John, but is something to definitely keep an eye on if he starts to get hit. As far as his other pitches go, his slider has much less movement than in years past but his circle change has the same velocity and movement as usual. Consequently, he has reverted back to a flyball pitcher which has flipped his ERA and xFIP by about half of a run. On the other hand, his K-BB rate is the best of his career and he’s been having success because hitters are making contact on pitches outside of the zone significantly more than usual (71.8 percent in 2019 versus 57.1 percent for his career) which leads to less walks and weaker contact.
     
    It’s way too early to jump to any conclusions on these figures, but it something to keep an eye as he gets back into the swing of things after a year and a half hiatus. Over his next few starts, the two big things to look at are his fastball velocity and how much “help” he’s getting from the opposing hitters. These tendencies should give you an idea on how the rest of the season will look for Pineda.
  4. Matthew Lenz
    As I am anxiously waiting to head Downtown and enjoy the pregame atmosphere at Brothers Bar & Grill, I decided to write about my Twins predictions for this season.
     
    Record: 84 - 78, 2nd in division
    At one point, it looked like the Indians were in a sell mode, but they were able to keep the core of Lindor, Ramirez, Kluber, and Bauer together while replacing Edwin Encarcion with Carlos Santana. I think this team is still a high 80's win team.
     
    Postseason: Loses Wild-Card Play-In Game to NYY (again)
    I hate to say it, but I don't see the Twins surviving the Wild Card game against the Yankees or Red Sox. Even if they were to surprise people and win the division they would be pitted against a 100 win Houston Astros team. Lets just be happy with a playoff appearance this season.
     
    MVP: Nelson Cruz
    I was a big fan of the big stick signing and think it will pay off big time, especially with Sano out for the first two month or so.
     
    Cy Young: Jose Berrios
    Improving each of the last three seasons and coming off of his best year at the Major League level, this is the year Berrios takes off.
     
    Most Improved: Byron Buxton
    IF he can stay healthy, his floor for 2019 will be 2017. I think this is, and has to be, the year that Buxton figures it out at the plate.
     
    Reliever of the Year: Trevor May
    May was one of the best relievers in baseball at the end of the last season and that will continue this season. He'll solidify himself as, not only the Twins closer, but also one of the top closers in baseball.
     
    Rookie of the Year: Stephen Gonsalves
    Fernando Romero pitched 55 innnings (limit is 50) in 2018, which no longer makes him a "rookie" by MLB's definition. Otherwise, he'd be the easy selection. If all goes well this year (the baseball gods owe us after last year), then there shouldn't be a need for any significants contributions from a rookie this season. That said, after Romero, I think Gonsalves is the next pitcher in line to receive some big league innings for a spot start or to fill-in during an injury.
     
    What are your predictions for the season?
  5. Matthew Lenz
    We are inching closer to Opening Day 2019 and, don’t look now but, current forecasts make it seem plausible that the Twins will be hosting the defending American League (AL) Central Division Champions Cleveland Indians on March 28th at 3:10pm. The Thursday, Saturday, Sunday series will be the only three games of the homestand before they start their first road trip traveling to Kansas City, the new look Phillies, and the Mets of New York.
     
    April (12 home, 13 away, 5 off)
    Outside of three games versus the Phillies and five games versus the Houston Astros, the Twins have the opportunity to take advantage of an easy schedule in the first full month of the season. This includes a seven-game homestand versus the Tigers and Blue Jays in mid-April and six total games versus the Baltimore Orioles.
     
    May (13 home, 15 away, 3 off)
    Things get a little tougher in May as their first five games are versus Houston at home (2) and New York Yankees at Yankees Stadium (3). They will face a solid, but not great Angels (6) and Rays (2) team eight times throughout the month and will host the Brewers for two games towards the end of the month. The Blue Jays, Tigers, Mariners, and White Sox are also on the docket and will all be series the Twins really need to win.
     
    June (12 home, 15 away, 3 off)
    The third month of the year could be a pivotal month for the Twins as 16 of their 27 games come against division foes, and only three of those games are versus the Indians in Cleveland. That said, five games against the Rays and three games against the Red Sox at Target Field will be a challenge and, specifically with the Rays, could have Wild Card tiebreaker implications down the road.
     
    July (12 home, 12 away, 7 off)
    July will be another important month for the Twins as 13 of their games will be against teams who will likely be in the thick of the developing playoff race. Ten of those aforementioned games will be immediately following the All-Star Break in Cleveland for three games and hosting the A’s and Yankees for seven games. If they struggle during that stretch, then they have the opportunity of playing the White Sox and Marlins to end the month.
     
    August (16 home, 12 away, 3 off)
    The “dog days of summer” will be something the Twins look forward to this season...kind of (see below). They have a tough 10 game homestand where they will face the Braves (3) and Indians (4) followed by two games in Milwaukee. Outside of those nine games, the other 19 will be against teams who are currently projected for 74 wins or less according to Vegas.
     
    September (13 home, 14 away, 3 off)
    Uf-dah (why does my Grammarly recognize this as a word?). In the months final season, the Twins will have twelve consecutive games against teams who will likely be battling for a playoff spot, including six critical games against the Indians. The other six will be at Fenway and versus the Nationals at home. Unfortunately, these games occur earlier in the month which makes it less likely these teams have clinched anything at that point. This is by far the toughest stretch of the season and it comes during the most important time of the season. I should mention that they end the season with 13 games versus the bottom three teams in the division.
     
    Notes of Interest
    The longest homestand of the season is ten games versus August 2nd through August 11th versus the Royals, Braves, and Indians.
    The longest road trip of the season is 10 games and 12 days, including a day of travel, starting May 29th and going through June 9th versus the Rays, Indians, and Tigers.
    There must be some labor law I’m unaware of that teams will have at least one off day in a two-week period as the Twins play on 13 consecutive games at a few different points throughout the season.
    That said, the Twins do have three different stretches of 26 games in 27 days including two such stretches that occur at the beginning and very end of August.
    The most difficult stretch of the season was mentioned above, but what should be the easiest stretch of the seasons occurs in the 17 games leading up to the trip to Fenway. Those 17 games will be against the Rangers, White Sox, and Tigers.
     
    Notable Promotions - follow the link for full list
    March 28th (Opening Day) v. Cleveland - Twins Puffer Vest
    April 27th v. Orioles - Twins Plaid Flap Cap
    May 24th v. White Sox - Joe Mauer Bobblehead #1
    June 15th v. Royals - Joe Mauer Day & No. 7 Baseball Cap
    July 19th v. Athletics - Joe Mauer Bobblehead #2
    August 3rd v. Royals - Joe Nathan Hall of Fame Bobblehead
    August 4th v. Royals - Joe Nathan and Jerry Bell Hall of Fame Pins
    August 24th v. Tigers - Joe Mauer Bobblehead #3
    September 7th v. Indians - Joe Mauer Bobblehead #4
     
    Breaking down a schedule is an interesting exercise. Not that you’re ever going to feel bad for someone making millions of dollars, but you can definitely appreciate how grueling the Major League Baseball season is. What are you looking forward to this upcoming Twins season? Any games or series you have your eye on right away? Let me know if the comments!
  6. Matthew Lenz
    With the release of the new Twins alternate jerseys and the Super Bowl Blog Blowout, I felt like it was a perfect time to create a comprehensive ranking of every uniform (top and pants) a Twins player has donned since they moved to Minnesota in 1961. Obviously, this is a highly subjective topic and I look forward to hearing what you think of my list and what your list looks like.
    From what I could gather, the Twins have worn 17 unique jersey combinations where I have grouped together jerseys that were shared a lot of the same characteristics. Within the list of 17 includes all home, road, alternate, and players weekend jerseys I could find.
    So without further ado…
     
    Tier One
    #1 1961 - 1971 Home / 2010 - 2018 Home Alternative

    You’ll gather quickly that I am a sucker for pinstripes. That, mixed with the off white/creme color of the jerseys is a solid combination. I also loved the nostalgia of throwing it back to the Twins original jerseys. Needless to say, I’m disappointed that these jerseys have been retired.
     
    Tier Two
    #2 1987 - 2009 Road

    #3 1987 - 2009 Home / 2010 - 2014 Home
    http://web.chessdailynews.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/01/Johan-Santana.jpg
    Again, with the pinstripes. I’m not a huge fan of a plain white jersey so the road version of this uniform gets the nod over the home uniform. I may also be influenced as these were the jerseys I grew up with and I own a Denard Span road jersey that is my go-to jersey for Twins games. The only noticeable difference between the two home jerseys in this group is the patch on the left sleeve went from the “TC” logo to the “Minne and Paul” logo.
     
    Tier Three
    #4 1973 - 1986 Road
    http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-KE4bs77tRGQ/TvfDjjOrcfI/AAAAAAAABpQ/LGCXL4Xn2MQ/s1600/1985+Donruss.jpg
    #5 1972 Road

    #6 1972 Home / 1973 - 1986 Home / 2009 Home Alternate

    #7 1961 - 1971 Road
    http://a4.pbase.com/o3/29/805529/1/87929516.wa1ifleS.bb22.jpg
    These Twins jerseys are the absolute classics of the franchise. The powder blues come in 4th overall but at the top of the list within this group. The red, white, and blue trim at the waist, the end of the sleeves, and down the side of the pants take the cake over the more simple look of the 1961 - 1971 Road jerseys.
     
    Tier Four
    #8 2016 - Present Home Alternate

    I like the simplistic nature of this jersey. The solid red top with the “TC” logo on the left breast and the Kasota Gold outline is a clean look. The red, gold, and blue stripe down the side of the pant leg is again subtle and clean. They are stilled listed as alternates with the newly released jersey.
     
    Tier Five
    #9 2019 Home Alternate

    #10 2011 - Present Road Alternate (Buxton & Dozier) / 2010 Present Road (Mauer)
    http://jetsportsmanagement.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/TWINS_ROYALS_BASEBALL_447796231.jpg

    The cursive script gives the edge over the grouping you’ll see below. In general, these jerseys don’t do much for me and could be spiced up a little bit with the addition of pinstripes but I will take the blue over the grey. The Kasota gold gives a slight edge over the two road jerseys.
     
    Tier Six
    #11 2015 - Present Home

    #12 2010 - 2013 Home Alternate / 1997 Home Alternate

    #13 1997 Road Alternate (Molitor)
    #14 1997 Red Alternate (Knoblauch)

    Only real significance between these jerseys is the font and lettering on the front. I like the “Twins” across the chest versus “Minnesota” and the Kasota Gold outlining moves the present day home jerseys to the top of this listing.
     
    Tier Seven
    #15 2018 Players Weekend

    #16 2006 - 2010 Home Alternate

    #17 2017 Players Weekend

    I don’t really like any of the jerseys in this grouping. You might be surprised to see a pinstriped jersey so far down my list, but it’s those blue sleeves that ruin it for me. Too much going on for a baseball jersey. The players weekend jerseys have been “meh” so far...are they even baseball jerseys if you can’t button them? My answer: no.
     
    So there you have it. As you can tell, I like a classic, clean, and subtle look in jerseys. The touch of Kasota Gold on the current jerseys is a favorite of mine but ultimately I hope they bring back the off-white/creme pin stripe jerseys!
    What does your list look like?
  7. Matthew Lenz
    As the hot stove is as cold as ever, I started putting a lot of thought into the hall of fame debate and who I think deserves to be in the hall come July 21st, 2019.
     
    If you're a baseball fan who has never been to the Cooperstown, then do yourself a favor a book a trip this summer. It's been about a decade since I was there so I'm sure things have a changed a little, but Cooperstown is a little quaint town on Otsego Lake in upstate New York. The Hall of Fame itself is right on Main Street - which cuts through downtown Cooperstown - and is full of ma and pop shops where you can buy almost anything you'd want with the Hall's emblem on it. Of course, don't forget to also check out Doubleday Field while you're there.
     
    My theory on the Hall of Fame - for any sport - is that it should honor the best players of the sport while also telling the biggest stories of the sport. You'll see this reflected in my ballot, but I believe that the best players from the steroid era should be enshrined in Cooperstown as they had a massive impact - for better or for worse - on the game and what it has developed into today. I believe that how they impacted the game should be stated on their plaque, but leaving them out is leaving out part of baseball's history.
     
    Another belief that I hold is that the designation of being a "first-ballot Hall of Famer" has much more meaning behind it than being elected in year two, three, etc. This will be reflected in the players who I would vote for. With that said and without further ado, here is my 2019 ballot.
     
    Barry Bonds
    Arguably, Bonds is the greatest hitter of all time. Him not being part of the Hall of Fame is a complete oversight by the voters. Edgar Martinez earned 70.4 percent of the vote last year and very well could hit the 75 percent mark this year. If that happens, then that could open the floodgate for other steroid era hitters with Bonds being the headliner.
    Roger Clemens
    The most recent pitcher to enter the 300 win club needs to be in the Hall. Keeping him out is almost as bad as keeping Bonds out, although Clemens isn't the greatest pitcher of all time he is one of the greatest pitchers of all time.
    Edgar Martinez
    Say what you want about the DH position, but when you are the greatest player at your position all time you deserve to be in the Hall. As I stated before, he was only a few percentage points away from getting the call in 2018 so maybe 2019 will be his year.
    Mariano Rivera
    In lieu of sounding like a broken record, just reread what I said about Edgar Martinez except put it in the context of the closer and saves. In my opinion, he's the first ballot hall of famer in the 2019 class.
    Manny Ramirez
    He's one of 27 who is part of the 500 home run club. His career OPS is four points shy of 1.0000. He was the World Series MVP in 2004 which snapped the Curse of the Bambino, and for 10 years he was one of the most feared hitters in baseball. Forget about your last memory of Manny (remember, he was with the Rays??) and remember him for what he was with the Red Sox from 1998 - 2008.
    Gary Sheffield
    Another member of the 500 home run club who could do more than just swing for the fences. He won the NL batting title in 1992 and won five silver sluggers throughout his career. He also helped the then Florida Marlins win their first world series in 1997.
    Sammy Sosa
    If Manny and Sheffield get in, then Sammy Sosa assuredly deserves a plaque of his own. One of nine players in the 600 home run club. On top of his offensive game, he was actually a decent defender before he bulked up in the late 90's.
    Larry Walker
    I'm not of the mindset that we should discredit anyone because of where they played. If we are really worried about Walker benefitting from the thin Colorado air, then are we going to start discrediting players who will play most of their career at the little league field known as New Yankee Stadium? No, we're not although I would kind of enjoy that. Due to injuries, Walkers career numbers don't look great as a whole but when he was healthy he was lethal with the bat and was actually a good outfielder and baserunner. According to Baseball Reference, his WAR7 - that is the sum of the seven best WAR seasons - is higher than Sosa, Sheffield, Rivera, and Ramirez who all made my ballot. I went back and forth on this one, but ultimately believe he deserves a spot in Cooperstown. Plus it would be cool if we could get his plaque to have a picture of him with a backward batting helmet.
     
    Other players who I would vote for if it were not their first ballot are Todd Helton and Roy Halladay. I wouldn't be surprised to see Halladay get in the Hall on his first ballot as an empathetic vote. Don't get me wrong, I think he deserves to be there but I can't do it on his first ballot.
    What do you think about my ballot? Would you vote differently if it was the players first ballot compared to the second or third ballot? What does your ballot look like?
  8. Matthew Lenz
    As the season comes to an end I wanted to reflect on some of what I wrote in my first Twins season at Twins Daily and Zone Coverage. Below you will find a review of my preseason predictions as well as some of my early articles.
     
    My Preseason Predictions
    https://twitter.com/Lenzy2108/status/979415769036607488https://twitter.com/Lenzy2108/status/979415769036607488
    The Record
    The Twins finished the year with only 7 fewer wins than I had originally predicted at 78-84. What you may not realize is that outside of the month of April the Twins played .493 baseball with a 69-70 record. What killed them this year, outside of the month of Aprill, was their record in 1 run games (14-21), which was the 8th worst winning percentage in all of baseball.
     
    Offensive PoY/Most Homeruns
    Brian Dozier was part of the laundry list of Twins player who had disappointing seasons, although he might be the biggest bust. Many of the players that underperformed for the Twins this year (Sano, Buxton, Morrison, etc.) were guys that had questions going into the season anyway, but I think many people assumed that Dozier was a lock for at least 30 home runs while slashing somewhere around .250/.340/.500.
     
    Your actual winner, in both categories, has to be Eddie Rosario. Although he was a little inconsistent he was the most reliable hitter the Twins had from start to finish.
     
    Starting Pitcher of the Year
    According to FanGraphs WAR and backed up by the eye test, Berrios was the Twins best overall pitcher this year. He improved in almost every metric and at only 24 years old, I think Twins fans should be excited for the pitcher Berrios is becoming. That said, I think an argument could be made for Gibson who was probably the most consistent Twins pitcher this year and is coming off a career year.
     
    Relief Pitcher of the Year
    Nobody could have possibly foreseen the disaster that was Addison Reed this year. He is #2 on my list biggest busts this year behind the aforementioned Brian Dozier. According to FanGraphs WAR, this season was the worst season of his career. We have another year with him, so lets hope the law of averages applies and he kills it next season.
     
    The actual Relief Pitcher of the Year would Taylor Rogers who lead all reliever with a WAR of 1.8. A note to make here is that Trevor May looked really good coming out of the pen...something to keep in mind for 2019.
     
    Rookie of the Year
    Gonsalves had his shot to make an impact and his minor league numbers made it seem like he could succeed at the big league level. Unfortunately, those numbers didn't translate at he really struggled with his fastball command and overall control...something he is going to need to figure out when he only throws 90 miles per hour.
     
    Again using FanGraphs WAR as my barometer, Mitch Garver and Jake Cave tied as the top rookies with a WAR of 1.3, and I am okay with naming Co-RoY's as I think they were both deserving. Despite having one year left with Jason Castro, I think Garver cemented himself as the primary catcher heading into 2019. In the case of Cave, I think he provides a viable option to compete with Kepler for the RF job entering 2019 spring training while also providing a good "plan B" if Buxton never figures it out.
     
    My Articles
    2018 Breakout Candidate: Stephen Gonsalves
    My prediction was somewhat accurate as he did have a pretty good 2018 in the minor league system and never did look back once he was called up, but that was more because of the September 1st roster expansion and (much) less because of how he was performing. I've already addressed what went wrong above and will do a more in-depth dive soon.
     
    Season Preview: Kyle Gibson
    My prediction had Gibson giving us about 180 innings with an ERA around 5 and I had estimated that he wouldn't be able to keep up his 2017 second half K/9 and BB/9 rates. He ended the year with 196.2 innings, an ERA of 3.62 (xFIP of 3.91), and did maintain his K/9 while walking an additional batter per nine innings in 2018. Needleess to say, I think the Twins were impressed with what they got from their sinkerballer as he put together the best season of his career. The guy who I had pegged as our #5 pretty quickly established himself as our #2 or #3, which might say more about our pitching staff than about him.
     
    Season Preview: Felix Jorge and Felix Jorge Update
    Felix Jorge was my "adopt-a-prospect" pick who had an injury-riddled 2018. I had predicted we would see him in 2018 and still think we would have had he stayed healthy. Although 2018 was a loss, he is still young with the potential to make an impact with the Twins in 2019.
     
    The Art of the Swing: Logan Morrison
    This is all you need to know about my prediction with the LoMo signing..."I think this is why Twins fans can be confident in the deal they got with Morrison. His 2017 wasn’t a random fluke. It was a purposeful change in approach and mechanics that lead to some great results. Personally, I am expecting much of the same in 2018." Ouch, man, ouch.
     
    So there you have it...my 2018 season in review. Hopefully, 2019 will see better predictions from myself and better performances from the Twins. Any feedback you readers have for me would be greatly appreciated in the comments!
  9. Matthew Lenz

    Felix Jorge Update

    By Matthew Lenz,

    With the minor league season coming to an end, I thought a quick update on my “adopt-a-prospect” would be good.
     
    It was back in early March when I was looking forward to providing “bi-weekly(ish)” updates on Twins prospect Felix Jorge. I had predicted that we would see him at some point in 2018 with a September call-up being the worst case scenario. Not too long after that, he was placed on the disabled list for the Twins AA affiliate Chattanooga with soreness in his right triceps, which is his pitching arm. After about two and a half months, he was able to debut and pitch 3.0 innings for the Gulf Coast League Twins in late June. In his two appearances, he struck out two and allowed two base runners while giving up one unearned run. His rehab was short lived as a week later he was taken off the 40-man roster and eventually released from the team. It was only five days later that the Twins then re-signed him to a minor league deal and assigned him back to AA Chattanooga. In the two months since he has not been able to come back from his triceps injury.
     
    Why did the Twins and Jorge part ways just to sign again five days later? It was actually nothing that either party had control over as Mike Berardino explains:

    <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

    The Twins have a good problem ahead of them and that is that they have a lot of options for starting pitchers going into the 2019 season. You have the mainstays from 2018 in Odorizzi, Gibson, and Berrios while also expecting Pineda to be healthy as well as Meija, Gonsalves, Stewart, Slegers, Littel, and Romero all possible candidates to fill out the final spot. This is bad news for Felix Jorge, who will no longer be defined as a prospect in 2019, who also will be coming off a lost season. At this point, it is hard to project what Jorge will become in the future but the Twins must still have hope that he will contribute at some point if they re-signed him back in July knowing that he wasn’t going to pitch for a while. Depending on whether or not he can get healthy this offseason, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Felix Jorge back in Spring Training in what may be his final shot at making the big league club.
  10. Matthew Lenz
    Just a couple days ago LaVelle Neal III reported that the Twins are going to be sellers at this years trade deadlines. This isn’t surprising news as the Twins are currently 12 games back of Cleveland in the division and realistically have no shot at a wild card when the AL has four teams in two divisions on pace for 100+ wins. Moreover they are on a 6-game losing streak and are sporting a 2-8 record in their last 10 after and FanGraphs has there playoff odds sitting at 0.4%.
     
    As sellers, you have two questions you need to know the answer to:
    Who on your roster is available?
    What are your needs?

    In this write up I intend to share my opinions on those two questions.
     
    1. Who is available?
    When looking at players who are available common practice is to start by looking at players on expiring contracts. That list includes the following players: Ervin Santana, Fernando Rodney, Bobby Wilson, Willians "Tortuga" Astudillo, Joe Mauer, Brian Dozier, Eduardo Escobar, Jake Cave, Lance Lynn, Zach Duke, Matt Belisle, and Logan Morrison.
     
    Next lets look at who would have value on the market (Note: it was very tempting to include "Tortuga" on this last but alas he just fell short). Ervin Santana, Fernando Rodney, Joe Mauer, Brian Dozier, Eduardo Escobar, Lance Lynn, Zach Duke, and Logan Morrison are the players that I think hold some trade value. Of that list, the only player I would really like the Twins to hold onto is Escobar as his offense and versatility can help the team for years to come.
     
    The only player I would consider who isn't on an expiring contract is Kyle Gibson. Addison Reed might be another name to float out there, but at 29 years old I think he can be a staple in our bullpen for years to come.
     
    Starting Pitchers
    Ervin Santana - about a month ago I wrote about how to make room for him and now I'm writing about moving him. Man baseball is fun. Anyway, despite not pitching yet this year I can see a potential playoff team taking a flier on him, especially if an injury arises. Maybe not by the non-waiver July 31st deadline but more likely by the waiver deadline of August 31st.
    Lance Lynn - Sans his last start he has looked real good since April.
    Kyle Gibson - he has continued his strong second half from 2017 and has overachieved from what I thought back on March. As Andrew Thares wrote about just a couple days ago "the time to trade Kyle Gibson is now".

    Relief Pitchers
    Fernando Rodney - he has been better than expected this year. Probably won't be a closer anymore if he gets moved, but he will be sought after.
    Zach Duke - same story as Lynn...tough March/April but has been one of our best relievers since. I wouldn't mind to see him in a Twins uni for another couple years, but I think he'll hold good value at the deadline.

    Hitters
    Joe Mauer - of course he needs to waive his no trade clause, and maybe he would do that for a shot at a world series ring. It would be weird to see him in a different uniform, but he deserves a shot at a title. Remember, this is just a rental so he could still re-sign next year.
    Brian Dozier - it's been fun to watch Dozier grow into the player he is, but he's already said he doesn't intend to re-sign with the Twins. Hopefully he can figure things out like he has the past two years to increase his value.
    Logan Morrison - he does have an option for next year and it's not a bad amount at $8 million, but according to FanGraphs WAR he is having the worst year of his career. He doesn't have a ton of value with those numbers, but there is something there as a power bat versus righties off the bench.

    Honestly, Escobar probably holds the most value here (yes, ahead of Mauer) but I think he can be a contributing piece for us over the next few years.
     
    2. What are your needs?
    Pitching. There's an old saying..."you can never have enough pitching" and it is oh so true. I actually like what the Twins have waiting in the wings with the likes of Trevor May, Aaron Slegers, Fernando Romero, Adalberto Mejia, and/or Stephen Gonsalves so I wouldn't say it's an immediate need. BUT..."you can never have enough pitching". From a positional perspective, I think Nick Gordon has the best bet to successfully fill shoes in 2019 at second for Dozier and is a good bet to see sometime in the Majors yet this season. Other than that, we possibly will need someone to bridge the gap between Mauer and Rooker and this player could either stay at 1B or move to DH if we are thinking long term. Also I think we need find a back up plan for Miguel Sano and this player could be another potential 3B or DH thinking long term. In short, I think a corner infielder and a pitcher should be on our radar. Our current starting outfield is under team control for many years to come and I don't see that changing anytime soon. Even with Buxton's offensive struggles there is plenty of value in his defense.
     
    What do you think? Who will the Twins deal? What are there needs? I look forward to reading your thoughts and continuing this discussion.
  11. Matthew Lenz
    A week ago Ervin Santana made is 2018 debut with the double-A Chattanooga Lookouts and threw 2 innings (45 pitches) giving up 4 hits, 0 walks, 2 earned runs, while striking out 1. He was pulled early as there was a concern about his velocity, which topped out at 90 mph while he usually sits around 94. Because of this concern he will move down and pitch today for single-A Fort Meyers Miracle, according to Brandon Warne. With this development it is fair to think that we won’t see Ervin on the Twins roster until the end of June at the earliest. Whenever he is ready to make his season debut for the Twins there will be a tough decision for Paul Molitor to make on what to do with his rotation, and that’s what I want to address in this piece assuming the current starting 5 stays healthy.
     
    Option #1: Demote Fernando Romero
    As much as Molitor and Twins fans would not like to see this, I think it is a very likely scenario. Because of options (or the lack thereof) and performance, Romero is the only realistic candidate from the starting rotation. I couldn’t find data on minor league options (does anyone have a resource for this?), but I would guess that Odorizzi, Lynn, and Gibson are out of minor league options while Berrios has been the Twins best pitcher. That leaves Romero as the odd man out. In this case, he would be the first pitcher called upon after an injury or for double headers.
     
    Option #2: DFA Grossman and move a starter to bullpen
    This would be another tough decision for Molitor. Mauer is set to return very soon and I would think that will result in the demotion of Gregorio Petit, which then leaves the Twins with Adrianza, LaMarre, Grossman, and Wilson as their 4 bench players. If Molitor decides to go this route, then we would probably see LaMarre or Grossman as the player to be demoted which would leave a thin bench but a stacked bullpen. Personally, I think Grossman has earned the demotion but I thought that out of spring training too.
     
    It’s not uncommon for a starting pitcher to get some time in the bullpen early in their career and with how electric Romero has been this year I think this would be a great option. With the way successful teams have been built the last few years it wouldn’t be a bad idea for the Twins to stack their bullpen with another dominant pitcher. Only downside of this is that he most likely wouldn’t be available to start again this year as his arm wouldn’t be ready to throw that much.
     
    Option #3: DFA Grossman and utilize 6-man rotation
    See above on why Grossman is the position player getting demoted. To be honest, I think this option is highly unlikely but it is something to consider. Pitchers (and baseball players in general) are creatures of habit and by nature are not fans of a 6-man rotation. This option allow him to continue to face major league hitting and it allows the Twins some flexibility if they do have injuries. Again, I don’t see this happening but also wouldn’t mind if it did.
     
    Personally, I would like to see Romero stay in the majors with whatever roster moves it takes. Realistically, I think option 1 is what is going to happen.
     
    Which option do you think is the best? Is there another option I didn’t consider? Lets discuss!
  12. Matthew Lenz
    Through the 2018 Adopt-A-Prospect draft I drafted Felix Jorge with the 27th overall pick as my guy for the upcoming season. It will my objective to give you bi-weekly(ish) updates on the Twins prospect this season, but I wanted to start by providing some background information and project what we might see from him in the 2018 season.
     
    Profile
    Felix De Jesus Jorge is a 24 year old right handed pitcher who will be entering his 8th season in the Twins organization after being signed as an international free agent in 2011. He made is Major League debut on July 1st, 2017 against the Kansas City Royals. He pitched 5 solid, yet unspectacular innings before getting pulled and eventually shelled in his second and final Major League outing of the season against the Orioles. He enters the 2018 season currently ranked as the Twins 17th best prospect according to MLB and 7th rated pitching prospect. He is currently on the Twins 40 man roster and has been assigned to start the season at AAA Rochester.
     
    Scouting Report
    Jorge stands at 6' 2", 170 pounds which makes him on the smaller side for your standard Major League pitcher. He has four pitches in his repertoire with his fastball and change-up being his two best pitches followed by his slider and curveball, respectively. His fast ball sits low 90's and then he loses about 10 miles per hour on his change-up, which is a good change of speed. He's a classic Twins pitching prospect as he doesn't overpower hitters, is very hittable, yet has pretty good control averaging about 2.2 walks/9.
     
    His delivery is very clean and smooth and he throws from over the top as you can see below from Spring Training a year ago.
     


     
    Projection
    Being that we already saw him in 2017, I am confident that we will see him again sometime in 2018. That said, he has fallen down the prospect list in the last year and he will be competing with Fernando Romero and Stephen Gonsalves who are currently rated much higher than him. As it stands right now, I would put him third in the pecking order behind Romero and Gonsalves as those two have had pretty solid springs thus far. With injuries, double headers, and other factors it's hard to know exactly when we'll see him but worst case scenario he will be brought up when rosters are expanded on September 1st. Looking a little more long term, I don't think Jorge as the "stuff" to be a reliable starter at the Major League level. He's still young and has room to improve, but I think a #4 or #5 starter is the top end of what to expect from him. More realistically, I view him as being a guy who could come out of the bullpen as a long or middle reliever down the road.


  13. Matthew Lenz
    [As seen on Zone Coverage]
     
    Recently, I had the chance to talk with Clyde “the Guide” Doepner, the Curator for the Minnesota Twins. Don’t know what a “curator” is? Think about getting paid to collect, display, and maintain Twins memorabilia for thousands of fans to enjoy at Target Field. Yes. Somebody gets paid to do that! Per his request, Clyde asked that I make this as little about him as possible and as much about the Twins as possible, but I want to provide you with a little background before jumping into our conversation.
     
    “I was brought up to say thank you.”
    In August of 1966 he was hired on as a first year teacher and varsity head baseball coach. In the spring of that same year, Cal Griffith (Twins’ owner) had sent out free season tickets to all head varsity baseball coaches, but the previous coach didn’t get them before he left and so they sat unused all summer. When he saw these in his mailbox, he decided to go down to the Met, find Cal’s office, and thank him for the tickets. Back in 1966 it was that easy. When he went to thank him, Cal noted that he was the only person to thank him for the tickets and brought him “down the hall, to the left, to the right, and to the Griffith seats”, as Clyde would say. Cal invited him to sit in those seats anytime he came to a game rather than “sitting out in the thankless seats with those ‘hecklin’ son of a guns’”, and a relationship was forged. It got the point that Clyde could sit anywhere he wanted when he came to a game and he became good friends with the Griffith family.
     
    “We’re not paying those son of a guns…”
    When the Twins made the move from the Met to the Dome, the sports commission was going to start charging the Griffith family for storage space. As Clyde tells it, “[Cal] being too frugal, too cheap to do that said ‘we’re not paying those son of a guns’ and he told his brothers ‘throw everything’. [Clyde] went out [to the dumpster] and collected about 3,000 items, and so Clyde “the Collector” was born and he debuted all the memorabilia at the first Twins fest in 1988. No matter how he got any artifact he considers all artifacts as “a part of the Twins”. If you’re interested to see a lot of the memorabilia then I suggest you check out this book.
    Being part of the Twins organization since 1966, Clyde is an endless book of stories which will be the focus of the rest of the article.
    “No Clyde, I’m all done, this is it.”
    At the end of the 2015 season before he made a public announcement Torii Hunter gave Clyde his glove. Clyde’s response was “I don’t want it, because you’re coming back next year” knowing that he only signed a one-year deal, but that the Twins would likely offer him another contract. Torii said, “No Clyde, I’m all done, this is it.” So a few days later, Hunter made it official and announced that he was retiring from Major League Baseball.
     
    “I was thinking of my Mom.”
    When Jim Thome hit his 600th home run at Comerica Park, Clyde made sure to get all the bases. He gave third base to Thome, second base to the Twins Community Fund for auction, and first base was kept for the Twins. Why did Thome get third base? Clyde thought “well, once you touched third base you couldn’t screw up the home run”. And why did the Twins get first? When Thome was asked what he was thinking about when he knew it was done and running down to first he said “My mother, she had died the year before”. This struck a chord with Clyde as he also recently lost his mother. On the base he signed: “On the way to this base, I was thinking of my Mom”.
    “Only Halsey could turn a sport coat into a Blazer”
    Halsey Hall was a sports reporter for the Twin Cities and announcer for the Twins for many years. He was actually the first broadcaster to coin the phrase “Holy Cow”, although most fans credit Harry Caray. He was described as having a “grizzly voice, because he smoked two cigars during every game”. Hall of Famer, Herb Carneal would say that “Halsey liked good cigars, but unfortunately that’s not the kind he smoked”. So the story goes that during one game, Halsey’s cigar ash fell into a wastebasket full of paper and started it on fire. He then blurted out, over the air, “oh my god, I’m on fire!” The fire ended up burning his hand, sport coat, and pants and there was a delay in the game until the fire was put out. Former Twins Catcher Jerry Zimmerman said “Only Halsey could turn a sport coat into a blazer”. Halsey was gifted a big red ashtray, and you bet that same ashtray is on display in the Target Field press box.
     
    “Isn’t that the way it goes?”
    Tom Kelly has each ball from the last out of the game that clinched the division in 1987, the game that clinched the pennant in 1987, and the game that clinched the world series in 1987. As Clyde puts it, “When Kent Hrbek heard about that he said ‘isn’t that the way it goes, Clyde? I caught all three of them, Tom took them, and you give him credit’”.
     
    Other tidbits:
    Clyde is one of the only curators in MLB. Recently, the Atlanta Braves added a curator when they built their new stadium.
    Target field has 38 display cases that he is responsible for filling and maintaining the memorabilia. He does all of this himself.
    Jim Thome kept a champagne cork and lighter in his locker. Before eye black was a thing, players would burn part of the cork and put it under their eyes.
    He was good friends with Harmon Killebrew. In fact, he was in charge of his appraising six to seven thousand items for his estate.
    Tom Kelley donated his entire collection to the Twins.

    Last but most importantly, Clyde wanted to thank the Twins organization. He would say that “the ‘Twins way’ isn’t just what happens on the field, but what happens in the clubhouse and what goes on in the community”. Clyde’s parting words to the reader would be “you should always say thank you. Not for some ulterior motive, but because it’s the right thing to do”. After all, if he hadn’t said thank you then many of the artifacts we have come to love around Target Field might be in a dumpster somewhere.
     
    This guy was has an endless amount of stories. If it is at all possible, he would be a great "get" for an upcoming Twins Daily event. Give him the mic and let him talk for as long as he wants.
  14. Matthew Lenz
    Most of you probably don't know that I am a high school math teacher and junior varsity baseball coach. Recently, a student of mine asked for me to write about the record breaking home run and strikeout rates from the 2017 season. I'm going to dive into those numbers for you today, but then also look at how these numbers are reflected in the projected 2018 opening day lineup for our beloved Twins.
     
    League Overview
    To get a good set of data, I took the K% (K/PA) and HR% (HR/PA) for the last twenty-one major league seasons. Below you will find a graphical summary (follow link for a closer look) of my findings:
    You will notice that although both statistics see an increase over this timeframe, there is a much more significant increase in HR% versus K%. The most notable differences in both stats can be seen in the "statcast era" from 2014-2017 where exit velocity and launch angle data as literally been changing hitters approaches at the dish. Furthermore, it's been well documented that 2017 was a record breaking year for strikeouts and home runs.
     
    Twins Lineup Implications
    The last two seasons have seen the Minnesota Twins hit the 3rd (2017) and 4th (2016) most home runs in franchise history, which includes the 60 years they spent being known as the Washington Senators. Interestingly enough, they finished 2nd (2016) and 3rd (2017) most strikeouts in a single season over that same time. (If you're curious, the 2013 Twins struck out a franchise record 1,430 times but only hit 151 homeruns which is 70 less than their 2017 total. Ouch.) Comparably league wide, their 2016 and 2017 combined totals put them 15th in the league in homeruns and 6th in the league in strikeouts. Below shows where the each Twins player ended up in 2017 when comparing strikeout and homerun percentages:

    Not surprisingly you will see Miguel Sano lead the team in both categories and Joe Mauer was at the bottom in both categories, among the regulars. In the middle, you see the average for 2017 was a 3.29 percent homerun rate and 21.6 percent strikeout rate. Ideally, we want our Twins to be closer to the Doziers, Rosario, Escobar, and Keplers of our lineup. Guys who finished below the league average in strikeout rate but above in homerun rate. Here are some of my takeaways:
    Much ado has been made about Rosario’s plate discipline in 2017. Not only did MLB strikeout percentage drop from a career mark of 25.2 percent to 22.2 percent, but he also set a career high in homerun percentage. He will be very valuable to the Twins if 2017 wasn’t a fluke.
    Admittedly, I am someone who is ready to see Vargas find another employer. So I was a little surprised to see how high his homerun percentage was in 2017. He can become value to the Twins or elsewhere if he can work on his plate discipline. That’s a big if.
    Jason Castro was an excellent defensive catcher in 2017. He was pretty good behind the plate too. Though he lost some of his power he tied his career low in strikeout percentage and a career high in OBP. I’d love to see his power rebound a little, but most teams will take any productivity they can get out of their catcher.
    I mentioned this earlier, but I really like where the core of Dozier, Rosario, Escobar, and Kepler fall. I think this is ideal for the middle of the order where these guys hit. Rosario and Escobar had broke out in 2017...is it time for Kepler?

    This season is huge from the Twins. They have yet to extend any of their young talent and there haven’t been any rumblings about contract talks. Maybe the organization is waiting to see what happens with Yu first or maybe they are waiting to see what 2018 entails. We all know this is a huge year for our young core. We’ll be looking to see if guys like Escobar and Roario are for real, while looking at Kepler and Berrios as possible breakout stars.
    What do you think about the data? Is it meaningful or are there other numbers we should be looking at here?
  15. Matthew Lenz
    I've spent a lot of time over the last few days reading about a relatively new statistic called "quality of pitch" (QOP), which assigns a numerical value to each pitch a pitcher throws. The values can then averaged together to come up with a pitchers average quality of pitch (QOPA) or you can look at a quality of pitch set of values (QOPV) as another tool to measure the performance of a pitcher. The purpose of this post is to provide a simple overview of this data as it may be referenced in future articles.
     
    Background
    QOP was first publicly introduced in March 2015 by Jason Wilson and Wayne Greiner. Since then it has been written in various publications such as "Baseball America", the "Fangraphs", and by Yahoo Sports! columnist Jeff Passan among others. Meanwhile, Wilson and Greiner have presented their findings at the 2015 SABR Analytics Conference. In short, this statistic was introduced and quickly regarded as a good tool to measures a pitchers performance in a way the baseball community has not previously done before.
     
    Computation
    QOP is computed by integrating velocity (MPH), pitch location, and pitch movement. Pitch movement is defined as the vertical break, horizontal break, breaking distance, and/or rise. These variables are put together and assigned a number 0 - 10, where 0 is a very poor pitch and 10 is an excellent pitch. The MLB average QOP is 4.5 and median is 5.

     
    Here is an example of QOP being used.

    Validation
    Wilson and Greiner have measured QOP against ERA, FIP, and SIERA which all produced a strong, negative correlation. That is, the better the QOP the lower the ERA/FIP/SIERA.

    Furthermore, a search of the top 10 2017 QOPA leaders for pitchers who threw 1,000 or more pitches provides you with a list of some of the more effective pitchers in baseball.

     
    Limitations
    As with all stats, QOP has its limitations. From a mathematical perspective anytime we are averaging numbers together the data can be skewed by outliers, and QOP is no exception to this rule. To help minimize the effect of outliers Wilson and Greiner have created a guide to determine the margin of error depending on the sample size.
     
    From a baseball perspective, QOP doesn't take into account of a pitcher who misses his spots. That is, if the catcher calls for a fastball high and inside but the pitcher throws it low and outside he could still get a high QOP score despite completely missing his spot. If technology exists for the location and break of each ball to be tracked, then I would like to see something developed that also accounts for the movement of the catcher's glove.
     
    Author's Conclusion
    Again, this post was solely meant to introduce you to this stat without diving into specifics on Twins pitchers. Personally, I look forward to using this stat and wouldn't be surprised if we start seeing it more and more in future posts by me or any other Twins Daily writer. Despite its limitations, I think it provides fans with a different, more insightful perspective than the traditional pitching stats (W/L, ERA, WHIP, etc.), especially when coupled with other SABR pitching stats.
     
    I also wonder how well this stat can be used to predict future outcomes. I look at the list above and a couple names surprised me, but specifically Joe Biagini who was also a top 10 QOPA guy in 2016 under the same criteria. A quick look at his fangraphs page shows that he hasn't been great in 162.0 big league innings. Is this the sign of a good pitcher who has just had some bad luck early in his career? Or is he the poster child for how finding the average QOP can, at times, be a misleading statistic?
     
    What do you guys think about this stat? Is this something you would look forward to seeing in future articles? What are your thoughts in the curious case of Joe Biagini?
  16. Matthew Lenz
    Not too long ago, Tom had the great idea for the bloggers to list their breakout candidate for 2018 in his Twins Weekly article. So I spent days...nay, hours...nay, minutes(!) scouring some of my favorite baseball resources looking for the dark horse breakout candidate that nobody would ever think of. Minutes (!!), looking for the dark horse breakout candidate that would take me from a blogger-in-training to a Schefter-esque insider. Minutes (!!!), looking for the dark horse breakout candidate that would leave readers wondering if I am some crazy baseball sorcerer or just plain crazy. After awhile I thought to myself: "What are you doing?? Just listen to your gut." So here is where I fell. My breakout candidate for 2018, the 2016 and 2017 TD MiLB Pitcher of the Year, is 23-year-old LHP Stephen Gonsalves. So much for a "dark horse", eh?
     
    Gonsalves had a terrific 2017 where his most notable improvement was his command finishing almost a full walk less per nine innings than his career average (2017: 2.54 BB/9 v. 2013-2016: 3.47). Over 46 tracked fastballs (PITCHf/x has only tracked 71 total pitches), his average velocity sits at just 89.72 mph, which means control is going to be a key factor for him to have any success. Surprisingly, and despite his lack of velocity, he finished the 2017 MiLB season with a 9.65 K/9 pitching 87.1 innings at AA and 22.2 innings at AAA and a 10.78 K/9 in 74.1 innings during the 2016 season at AA. In that same timeframe he did struggle with his command posting a 4.48 BB/9, so we could say that 10+ K/9 was a result of being "wildly effective" a la Edwin Jackson. An improvement in command over a two-year period is another reason why I see him taking the next step this year.
     
    Gonsalves batted ball data in minors suggests that he is a flyball pitcher, which isn't a huge deal as Target Field is a pitchers park and...well...you know...Buxton/Rosario/Kepler. But what impressed me even a little more is that hitters don't hit him well. At levels where he made 15+ starts his LD% are as follows: 17.2% (2015 High A), 13% (2016 High A), 18.1% (2016 AA), and 19.2% (2016 AA) which are all below the MLB average of 21%. Admittedly, I know this is a little bit of apples and oranges using a MLB average to analyze minor league numbers, but I do think it gives you a gauge of where he's at. Again, Target Field tends to treat fly ball pitchers well especially with our defense...another positive sign that this could be his year.
     
    For me the make or break variable for Stephen Gonsalves will be the development of his slider and curveball. Below you will find a graphic from Brooks Baseball that uses a standardized score to rate Stephen's velocity and movement against other pitchers who fit similar criteria. Unfortunately, this is a very small sample as they only tracked 71 pitches over Gonsalves' 2016 Arizona Fall League appearances. To briefly explain this chart, a negative number means he is below average and a positive number means he is above average.

    You might notice that his slider and curveball weren't great in this limited sample. There is no PITCHf/x data for him other than this and no other resource (fangraphs, baseball ref, etc.) keeps very great MiLB SABR stats. In a recent interview with Seth Stohs, Stephen said that he was able to work on his slider so much in 2017 that "it is almost as good as his change up". If this is true and if he can carry this into 2018, then Stephen already has three solid pitches in his arsenal. In that same interview, he said that he has been working with former big leaguer David Wells this season who was known for his curveball:

     

    If Wells can help him develop his curveball into a reliable 4th pitch, then I think Stephen will be primed to make the next jump. As I said before, I think his slider and curveball are his biggest question marks coming into the season and will ultimately define if he spends most if his time in Minneapolis or Rochester this year.
     
    So what does all this mean for 2018? I think Gonsalves is part of the Spring Training battle for a back end rotation spot but ultimately starts the year at AAA. He will perform well at AAA to the point where he will be the guy called on to fill in during DL stints or for a spot start here and there. Eventually, he makes his way to the MLB roster and doesn't look back. I think he provides a boost to the back end of the rotation that may not be RoY/Cy Young worthy, but that consistently gives you a chance to compete every 5th day.
     
    What do you guys think? Who are some other breakout candidates? Anyone have a breakout candidate from a lower level in the Twins organization who may rise quickly in 2018?
  17. Matthew Lenz

    Mauer's Future

    By Matthew Lenz,

    This article was originally posted back in January, but with Mauer's 2000th hit Tom wanted various Mauer articles. I haven't changed much, but have added more data to support my opinion. I'd also just like to mention that I did not change my opinion on a potential salary for 2019 and beyond despite his torrid start to the season.
     
    It's no secret that Joe Mauer is entering the final year of his 8 year, $184 million contract extension signed in 2010. It's also not a secret that Mauer isn't the player he was in 2009 or in the years leading up to that MVP season. What does seem to be a secret, is what thoughts "Falvine" has on Mauer's future past the 2018 season. There are really only three options, which I will breakdown below.
     
    1. Stay with the Twins
    Personally, I think this is the most likely scenario. He's from here, his family is here, he's spent his entire career here, his personality and demeanor (although frustrating to fans) fits well with the "Minnesota nice" mantra, and the Twins are starting to become contenders. So what will it take for the Twins to keep him here?
     
    Since his move to 1st base (2012) Mauer has played 813 games as a first basemen, which is good for 13th most among 50 qualified players. In that same time he has provided a 14.7 WAR which is good for 10th best:
    The "good": he's staying healthier, he's getting on base (6/50 in BA and 5/50 in OBP), and he's become one of the best defensive 1B in the game (#1 in UZR in 2017 among 21 qualified players).
    The "bad": he'll be 36 in April of 2019 (only 6 qualified players were 36+ years old in '17), he provides no power as a 1B/DH (42/50 in SLG from 2012-2017), despite being healthier he's still good to miss at least 20 games/year not including the days provides no defensive value as a DH.

    I think it's fair to assume that 2017 is the ceiling of what we can expect from Mauer in 2018 and beyond, although he has been lights out so far this season. Looking at salaries for players who are currently 36+ years old, 2017 and 2018 contract agreements, and salaries of other 1B around the league I would be looking for the Twins to give Mauer a 2-3 year deal at $8-$10 million/year not including incentives or player/team options. Again, I believe him signing with the Twins is the most likely scenario.
     
    I came up with the $8 - $10 million range from looking at the following data.
     
    Yonder Alonso signed with the Indians for $8mil per year. Comparatively to Mauer, he provides a little more power, less OBP, and a lot less defense. He's younger, coming off a career year, and also fits the "launch angle" ideal that so many hitters are trending towards. Ultimately, my opinion is that the pros and cons of both players provide a similar value to a team although the type of value they provide are different. I think that provides a sort of base line going into next offseason.
     
    I also looked at players that signed in 2016/2017 offseason who were 36+ years old and although the median salary was 7.75 million a few of those guys are getting paid $13 & $16 million.If I were to include 35+ year olds, which is technically how old Mauer will be at the start of the 2019 season, the median is at $8 million and includes Yadier Molina (a career long Cardinal) getting paid $20 million. Although the median is lower, I think the higher deals give Mauer/Shapiro some room to negotiate an above the median salary. Especially if Mauer performs similarliy to how he did in 2017 and/or is able to hit like he currently is for a majority of 2018.
    2. Sign Elsewhere
    I don't see this happening, but obviously this is a possibility. Assuming Mauer only has a few more years in the big leagues, he could be looking for a team to win now. Now being 2019 or 2020. Depending on what the Twins FO does in free agency over the next couple years the Twins may or may not be legit world series contenders in 2019 or 2020. I hate to say it but with Greg Bird not being able to stay healthy the Yankees may have an opening at first base that would be a good fit for Mauer. Teams like Houston, Boston, Chicago (NL), Dodgers, Indians and Nationals are also obvious contenders, but currently have a player who is under contract at 1st base.
    3. Retire
    From what I have read/heard, there hasn't been any rumblings that Mauer is ready to hang them up. Doesn't mean it's not something to consider. Honestly, I almost think Joe would be more apt to retire than he would be to sign somewhere else. Moving somewhere else obviously would mean either moving his family or moving away from his family, which I don't think he would want to do.
  18. Matthew Lenz
    One of the biggest questions entering the 2018 season is what we can expect to get from Kyle Gibson. Much attention has been given to the differences in his 1st and 2nd half, so I'd like to take a look and see what version of Kyle Gibson we will get in 2018 or if it is somewhere in between. I don't just want to throw a bunch of statistics at you as that doesn't help determine if his 2nd half is truly repeatable, but I do want to start there as that will guide the rest of the article.
     
    Here are a few stats that I think help explain the difference in overall results we saw from Gibson:



    Clearly, the biggest difference is that he did lot more striking out and handed out a lot less free passes, which is a good recipe for any pitcher. Let’s take a second to appreciate that he had a 331 percent increase in his K/BB percentage from the 1st half to the 2nd half, which I think helps explain the improvement of virtually every other stat. As reference, Gibson's career K/BB rate stands at 7.9 percent. So what adjustments did Gibson make that attributed to the dramatic difference between his two halves?
     
    I used Brooks Baseball pitch f/X data to help me answer this question. Below is an overview of some of the data I will be referencing.

    Gibson has long been known as a sinker ball pitcher who relies more on ground balls than swing and misses to get him through his work day. Interestingly enough Gibson threw his sinker about 28 percent of the time in his 2nd half appearances compared to about 40 percent of the time (also his career mark) in the 1st half. He relied much more on his fastball in the second half than he ever has throughout his career, especially as the first pitch he threw to batters. Getting ahead in the count, specifically throwing first pitch strikes, is key to a pitchers success and allows him some flexibility in how he can approach the rest of an at bat. Last year, some of the best pitchers in baseball lead the league in first pitch strikes headlined by Clayton Kershaw.
     
    Another takeaway from the data above that helped was the differences in pitch movement from his sinker, change up, and slider from each half. Essentially his sinker and change up dropped more while his slider became more of mix between a curve and a slider, which some would call a “slurve”. A change in release point can be credited for this change in pitch movement. As a visual, I have attached a graph of his average vertical and horizontal release point for each game in 2017. Vertical release point is measured from the top of the pitching rubber and horizontal release point is measured from the center of the pitching rubber.

    To summarize these graphs, Gibson lowered his arm angle slightly but the bigger difference was that he slid about a foot towards third base from the first half into the second half (see below). This gave hitters a new perspective from which they saw the ball released from Gibson. Again, these adjustments are part of the reason why his pitches created a different movement pattern in each half.

    So what does this mean for 2018? Like most, I tend not to look into Spring stats although he did have a solid, yet unspectacular spring. From video, I can tell you that Gibson has “looked” good this spring and that he has carried his adjustments noted above into spring training. That said, I think Gibson was able to fool a lot of batters in the second half of last season because he had changed his delivery and pitch selection. In other words, hitters had a scouting report on Gibson but then he didn’t follow it and was able to catch hitters off guard. Despite his second half numbers, Gibson is not a guy who is going to consistently strike out almost one batter an inning. He also will not be the pitcher who walked 4 batters per inning. He will fall somewhere in between. The great thing about 2018 is that Gibson is our number 5 guy which will help ease expectations from Twins fans. I would expect a typical pitching line for him to be 6 IP, 2-3BB, 4-5K, and 3-4 ER which is pretty good for a back end rotation guy especially with the backing of a lineup that will be on of the best in the league.
  19. Matthew Lenz

    The Yu Paradox

    By Matthew Lenz,

    According to google, one definition of the word paradox is "a situation, person, or thing that combines contradictory features or qualities." Looking back on it, thinking the Twins were going to end up with Yu as their Opening Day starter was quite the paradox. History tells us that the Minnesota Twins and huge contracts are quite the contradiction. Of course there are some who won't ever let us forget the counterexample which would be the Joe Mauer contract that he never lived up to. Outside of that lone example the Twins have rarely given a player whether through an extension or through free agency their big payday. I'm writing this to deliver one message:
     
    It's okay for you to feel frustrated, disappointed, let down, [enter whatever adjective you want] by the Twins not landing Darvish. It's okay. It really is. Furthermore, it's okay to feel that way and still be a diehard Twins fan. You're not a bad person or a bad fan for having this opinion. Contrary to what others say, it is completely fair and logical for this "narrative" to exist and for fans to share this opinion. At the end of the day, we are all allowed to have our own opinions. This is America after all!
     
    Here's my opinion on the "narrative", which you may have seen stated in the comments of a different article. I will say that I agree that there are endless amounts of example of players who get big paydays and then never live up to it. I'm aware of that. But saying that big contracts are "risky" and/or "irresponsible" in Major League Baseball is a complete and utter fallacy in my opinion.
    Baseball has no salary cap. Missing on a big contract doesn't hinder your ability to hand out another big contract to another star. After all, the Yankees are the "evil empire" for a reason.
    As of 2015, the Pohlad family was worth $3.8 billion. That's A LOT of money. Furthermore, they bought the Twins for $36 million and the franchise is estimated to be worth $1.025 billion which amounts to a profit of $989 million. As much as people want to talk small markets and television contracts, money is of little concern to the Pohlad family.

    Of course an argument to the second point is that the only way you are worth that much money is by being financially responsible. To which I would say that since giving out the Mauer contract the Minnesota Twins increased their net worth from $405 million to the $1.025 billion mentioned above. That is, they got no where near the production they were hoping for and increased the net worth of the franchise $620 million since then. Not to beat a dead horse, but again there seems to be absolutely no "risk" and/or "irresponsibility" in handing out a big contract.
     
    It would be very one-sided of me to not address the 100% possible case that maybe we offered Yu a key to the city, a 15 year $1 billion contract, and whatever else he wanted but it all still wasn't enough to lure him to the bold north. If it were the case that he just didn't want to come here, then that would obviously be out of control of the Pohlad family. To which I would say, if not now...when? We have so much potential and talent, some of which isn't even in the big leagues yet, and if that can't draw a superstar looking for a ring then when will we ever be able to appeal to a superstar? Not only is our organization at a great spot in potential and talent, but we were just able to show off how great Minnesota can be with the international coverage of the Super Bowl. We were able to show people that, despite the frigid temperatures, Minnesota is a great place to live with great people. So the thought that our organization being where it is and our city recently being surrounded by some major hype can't appeal to a superstar is a saddening reality. Maybe the reality is that Minnesota won't ever appeal to non-homegrown superstars no matter how much money the Pohlads offer them.
     
    So yes, I am frustrated. I'm disappointed. I'm sad. I'm [enter whatever adjective you want] that the Twins weren't able to sign yet another superstar to bring them to the next level. But I love the Twins and will continue to cheer them on. I will continue to follow them once this crop of talent is gone. I'm not only here when things are good, but I'm also here when things are bad. I may not be happy with every decision made, but that doesn't make me (or you) a bad fan.
     
    That's just my opinion, at least. What do you think?
  20. Matthew Lenz
    When Tom approached me about the Big Blog Blowout I was struggling to come up with something to write about. When he gave me the list of topics people had "claimed" it seemed to have a historical theme. So I bring to you the best Twins team that ever was(n't). What I have attempted to do is create the best 25 man roster regardless of era. Interestingly enough, after I compiled my list Seth Stohs wrote about the "Top 15 Minnesota Twins Players". You'll see a lot of overlap here, but I put it in the form of a 25-man roster. Here is how I constructed the 25-man team.
    the roster had to be realistic. This specifically pertains to the bench and bullpen.
    the player had to spend over half their career with the Twins,
    the player had to play for the Twins for at least 5 years,
    the player had to play for the Twins between 1961 - current,
    and the player had to play at that particular position for a majority of their career. The exception to this rule is the DH.

    Hitters
    Catcher - Joe Mauer
    Not a lot to say here. By far, Joe Mauer is the best offensive, defensive, and overall catcher in franchise history. He will go down as one of the best catcher to ever play the game, and arguably the best hitting catcher to ever play. Don't let the contract and the latter part of his career overshadow his impact on the field when he was at his best.
    1st Base - Kent Hrbek
    When choosing between Hrbek and Killebrew I had to consider the defensive numbers. Hrbek was not a great defender himself but he was much better than Killebrew, so he gets slotted here. Behind Killebrew, him and Justin Morneau were the two players to consider here and Hrbek was an easy choice over Morneau. I mean who can pull a guy off 1st better than Herbie?
    2nd Base - Rod Carew
    I wasn't around to watch Carew play but his number is retired for a reason. With the Twins he played most 2B, but later in his career he became a full time 1B for the Angels. Other than Knoblauch and Dozier, there really aren't any other options here. As much as he is known for his offense, he was an okay defender as well.
    3rd Base - Corey Koskie
    This was a toss-up between him and Gaetti. From my perspective, Koskie was the better overall player and thus garnered the starting job. The former Canadian hockey goalie was a superb defender and also a good guy to have in the middle of a line up. It's too bad concussions limited his career as he could have been a solid player for a long time.
    Shortstop - Roy Smalley
    In the entire history of the Twins franchise, there are only three guys to even consider for this spot. Smalley, Zoilo Versalles, and Greg Gagne. Smalley wins the job and it's not even close. The other two were better defenders but were non-factors at the plate. I'm the kind of guy who would prefer a player who can contribute in both aspects of the game rather than one aspect really well.
    Left Field - Shane Mack
    Even behind shortstop, this is probably the weakest position in franchise history. Bob Allison would have been the shoo-in here but he spent a majority of his career in right field. Mack was the de-facto left fielder. Hey, at least he brings some championship pedigree to the team.
    Center Field - Kirby Puckett
    Was there ever a doubt? Torii was great, but Kirby was greater. I was a little too young to watch much of his career before his unfortunate early retirement, but he may be the most popular and adored Twin of all time. I've never heard it live, but I can still hear Bob Casey announcing Kirby's name in the Dome.
    Right Field - Tony Oliva
    This one was easy. Obviously, Oliva was one of the best Twins of all time as his number is retired. Bob Allison was the only true contender at this spot outside of Oliva. Oliva is one of only a few Twins to finish their career above .300, was the Rookie of the Year in 1964, and finished second in MVP voting twice in his career ('65 & '70).
    DH - Harmon Killebrew
    This is the perfect spot for him. He wasn't a good defender at all and he is one of the best hitters of all time. He is the best Twins hitter, probably even player, in the franchises history.
    Pitching Staff - I used innings pitched to determine if the player spent more than half his career as a Twin.
    Ace - Johan Santana
    This was a tough call. Arguably, he was the most dominant pitcher in Twins history but that was only for a stretch of five or so years. The two behind him weren't so much dominant, but were able to maintain consistently solid production over a longer period of time. Nonetheless, on my list Johan is the ace. Over the 5 or so years he was the best pitcher in baseball winning two Cy Youngs ('04 and '06) while garnering some MVP votes in those seasons as well. If I needed to win one game, I'd choose Johan in his prime.
    Starting Pitcher No. 2 - Bert Blyleven
    Excluding Steve Carlton, who didn't qualify for my list anyway, Bert is the only Twins pitcher to be elected to Cooperstown. When choosing between him and Jim Kaat that was what gave him the edge. Bert spent just over half (51.6% IP) as a Minnesota Twin. In all, he pitched for 22 big league seasons. Never truly dominant but almost always a reliable pitcher.
    Starting Pitcher No. 3 - Jim Kaat
    If Bert is in the Hall of Fame, then Kaat needs to be. All of their statistics are practically the same, although Kaat only won one World Series back in '82 with the Cardinals and he wasn't much of a contributor for them. That said, he holds the major league record for winning 16 consecutive gold gloves. Most pitchers careers don't even last 16 years.
    Starting Pitcher No. 4 - Camilo Pascual
    Camilo is another guy who wasn't too dominant, but was able to consistently produce over a long career. He was the franchises first "ace" and deserves to be in the rotation. To be fair, the candidates drop off pretty quick after the top 3 or 4.
    Starting Pitcher No. 5 - Frank Viola
    Viola was key to the 1987 World Series championship (he was the MVP) and followed that up by winning the Cy Young in 1988. If it wasn't for being traded he probably would have been slotted as the No. 4, but it hurt is Twins resume a little bit that he wasn't here longer. That said, we did end up getting a key piece back that will show up later in this list.
    Long Relief - Jim Perry
    Admittedly, I just took the Twins starting pitcher who just missed the cut and put him here. Honestly, I think Pascual, Viola, and Perry could all be put in whatever order you wanted. He fits the description of most Twins pitchers (sans Johan), which is not dominant but consistently solid. The two best years of his career were in '69 and '70 where he finished 3rd and 1st in Cy Young voting, respectively.
    Middle Relief No. 1 - Tom Hall
    Hall spent the Twins portion of his career bouncing back and forth between the bullpen and the starting rotation. He had a very non-descript career never garnering an award vote of any kind and never making an all-star game. That said, as a reliever Hall could give you multiple innings and averaged over a strikeout per inning.
    Middle Relief No. 2 - LaTroy Hawkins
    If you can last as long as LaTroy did in the era that he did it, then you are one of the best to do it. He pitched for 21 seasons in the big leagues and was solid all the way through his retirement season in 2015 with the Blue Jays. Hawkins was converted to a relief pitcher after 5 largely unsuccessful seasons as a starter. As with Hall, he never garnered an award vote of any kind and never made an all star game.
    Set up No. 1 - Glen Perkins
    The Twins second best closer of all time would be my first choice as the set up guy. Perkins was unsuccessful as a starter, but found his niche as a fire throwing closer with the team. It's unfortunate that injuries derailed the last few years of his career and forced him into an early retirement. I have to imagine the highlight of his career (for himself and Twins fans) was seeing him close out the 2014 All Star Game in his home stadium.
    Set up No. 2 - Rick Aguilera
    Aguilera came to the Twins in the trade that sent Viola to the Mets in '89. Although he made 11 starts that year, he made 460 relief appearances as a member of the Twins. He did well with the Twins as he made the all star game three times, garnered MVP votes in 1991, and was a key contributor to both World Series titles.
    Set up No. 3 - Juan Rincon
    Rincon had a pretty good stretch from 2004 - 2006. When the Twins in a crunch he could be relied upon to get out of the jam. Obviously a key skill to have as a set up guy.
    Closer - Joe Nathan
    Not much to say here. He is the best Twins closer of all time. Finished his career with the most Saves in Twins History and was one of the best in the game when he was in his prime. In 04 and 06 he was actually in the Cy Young and MVP talks a little bit. In all of baseball, there aren't many that were as good as him.
    Honorable Mentions (Bench)
    OF/1B - Bob Allison
    He technically did play A LOT of left field, but he played right field more which disqualified him from the left field spot. I feel like he is one of the overlooked Twins greats. No his number isn't retired, but he spent all of his 13 years in a Senators/Twins uniform and hit 256 homeruns in that time. If it wasn't for injuries I think his career could have been longer and he could have passed the 300 HR plateau.
    C - Early Battey
    Any realistic roster needs a back up catcher. Battey is the guy. While with the Senators/Twins franchise he won 3 gold gloves, made 4 all star games, and finished top 10 in MVP voting three times.
    2B/SS - Chuck Knoblauch
    A key cog to the 1991 World Series and a good player for the Twins over 7 years. He'll be a good guy to have off the bench when we need speed on the base paths.
    Utility - Gary Gaetti
    He was Nick Punto before Nick Punto was Nick Punto. The only two positions he didn't play throughout his career were CF and C. He wasn't necessarily a great player, but was solid for the Twins. He was another important piece in the '87 World Series team.
     
    In my eyes, my biggest "snub" was Torii Hunter. When constructing a realistic 25-man roster I needed to have a back-up catcher which is where Battey made the list over Hunter. Another area I struggled with was the bullpen construction. After Perry, Nathan, Aguilera, and Perkins the pickins' got slim and I ended up having to consider individual seasons over career stats. Carl Willis was a name that almost made the cut, but Rincon and Hawkins had individual seasons that were better than any of Willis'.
     
    So what do you think? Who did I miss? Let the debate begin!
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