Twins Fantasy Fix (4/16): Hello, Carlos!

Welcome back to Twins Fantasy Fix! The Twins held their own in a tough week, winning two of three against the White Sox before starting the series at Yankee Stadium with consecutive wins, including an offensive outburst on Thursday. Let’s look at some key injury updates, plus which Twins have their stock rising and falling from a fantasy perspective due to results from the past week. I’ll also take a look at the week ahead and highlight some matchups to target and avoid.

Twins Injury Updates

Kyle Farmer

Expected return: TBD

Farmer suffered a scary-looking injury when he took a Lucas Giolito fastball to the face Wednesday. He underwent surgery to repair a laceration as well as some damage to his lips and teeth. It’s a tough blow to Minnesota’s depth, though from a fantasy perspective, Farmer wasn’t really moving the needle due to his inconsistent playing time. If you had him on your roster, you likely already cut ties or should do so soon.

Jorge Polanco

Expected return: Later this month

Polanco began a rehab assignment April 6 and is eligible to return at any time, but he’s yet to suit up for the Twins in 2023. The team is being understandably cautious as the infielder works his way back from a knee injury that sidelined him this spring. Edouard Julien should continue to see regular playing time at second base in the meantime.

Alex Kirilloff

Expected return: Early May

Kirilloff began his own rehab assignment on April 11, and again, the club is being cautious after he works his way back following wrist surgery last summer. Donovan Solano and others continue to see time at first, but Kiriloff should eventually take over there.

Joey Gallo

Expected return: Next week

Gallo hit the injured list on Tuesday with an intercostal strain, though it’s expected to be a brief absence. He should rejoin the team during the upcoming series in Boston and slot back into a regular role, at least against right-handed pitching.

Twins Fantasy Player Trends

Stock Rising: Carlos Correa

ESPN ownership: 91%

Correa shouldn’t be available in your league (I’m not sure what those 9% of ESPN leagues are doing), so this is more about return on investment. The star shortstop didn’t look worth the price – for the Twins or fantasy managers – in the early going, and some time spent sidelined due to back spasms early last week raised alarms, but a trip to New York seemingly got him right. He started the series with consecutive multi-hit efforts with a home run in each game as well. Correa’s overall numbers are still below his usual standards, however, so there might still be a small buy-low window here. If you think you can acquire Correa at a discount via trade, go for it. We already remember what happened after he clicked in Minnesota last year.

Stock Falling: Kenta Maeda

ESPN ownership: 9%

Maeda has pitched well enough with 12 strikeouts, a 4.09 ERA and 1.00 WHIP across 11 innings in two starts, but the concern here is availability. The Twins skipped his turn in the rotation over the weekend, and Rocco Baldelli indicated he’ll likely take this same approach at different times throughout the season to help manage Maeda’s workload in his return from Tommy John surgery. It makes perfect sense from a real-world perspective, but from a fantasy perspective, it limits the righty’s upside. He’s probably best viewed as a matchup-based streamer play who doesn’t need to sit on fantasy benches. Maeda may also not always go particularly deep into games, so you’re hoping for at least five innings, solid ratios and the chance at a win. It’s a fine strategy against the Tigers and Royals, but trickier lineups can be avoided.

Upcoming Week Matchup Notes

• 3 Games at Boston Red Sox (Chris Sale, Corey Kluber, Nick Pivetta)
• 3 Games vs Washington Nationals (Trevor Williams, Chad Kuhl, Patrick Corbin)

The matchups this week look promising. Boston has allowed 83 runs in 15 games (by comparison, the Twins have allowed 43 runs in the same amount of games). At Fenway Park, Minnesota hitters look like great targets. Meanwhile, Washington has been a bit better with 76 runs allowed in 15 games, but the Nationals have only scored 55 runs. For context, that’s in line with Detroit’s feeble offense. Maeda, Pablo Lopez and Sonny Gray are tentatively set to start those three games, and all three are worth deploying.

Two-Start Starting Pitchers 

Gray is set to start Tuesday against the Red Sox and then again Sunday against the Nationals. As noted above, the second matchup figures to be the easier one, but Gray has been rolling with a 0.53 ERA and 19 strikeouts over his first 17 innings, so it makes sense to give him a shot against Boston as well. If he struggles at all in that start and his price drops a little in daily formats, Sunday looks like a great bounceback opportunity.

Twins Fantasy Hitters to Watch

There are a ton of matchups to target this week. Sale has an 11.25 ERA and is allowing righties to hit .300 this season. No Twin has noteworthy career numbers against the lefty, but the likes of Correa, Byron Buxton and Jose Miranda should be favorable plays. Kluber isn’t much better with a 6.92 ERA. Again, he actually has a pretty good track record against Minnesota hitters in his career, but recent results suggest he’s a fine pitcher to exploit. Pivetta has been the best of the trio with a 4.50 ERA this year, though with a career 5.01 ERA, he’s not an ace by any means. Michael A. Taylor is 7-for-16 lifetime against Pivetta with a home run.

The matchups against Washington might be even better for Minnesota hitters. In particular, I’m looking at the last two. Kuhl has an 8.59 ERA and has allowed four home runs in 14.2 innings. Meanwhile, Corbin has become a favorite target for daily fantasy players looking to build stacks the past few years. The lefty has a 7.71 ERA this season and was above 5.00 in 2021 and 2022. In the past three years, righties are hitting a robust .315 against him. As an NL guy, Corbin hasn’t seen a ton of the Twins, but I’d definitely explore a Minnesota stack in this contest. Of particular interest would be any bargain-priced, right-handed bats who might enter the lineup on a Sunday. A healthy Farmer would likely have fit this bill, but Taylor and Ryan Jeffers also come to mind. Depending on how the Twins line up that day, grabbing one or two bargain players plus a few big boppers makes a lot of sense and should give you flexibility elsewhere in your build. 

Which Twins players have been the biggest fantasy surprises, good and bad? Let me know in the COMMENTS, plus share your thoughts on the matchups this week.