That's The Ticket: A Series That Means Something

The Tigers' road to their fifth straight divisional Central Division championship has been bumpy. After averaging 92 wins per year for the last four years, the Tigers have been struggling to clear .500. Their offense has been their savior; ranking third in the American League in runs scored.

However, a lot of that was fueled by Miguel Cabrera and his 1.034 OPS, and he’s not going to be around for this series – or for this month. Cabrera has a Grade 3 calf strain and is expected to be sidelined for six weeks, meaning the Tigers won’t have him back until mid-August, two weeks after the trade deadline.

However, his absence hasn’t significantly slowed down the potent Tigers lineup. In the five games he’s been out, they’ve still averaged more than seven runs per game. Manager Brad Ausmus can still write high-powered names in the lineup, like J.D. Martinez (24 HR), Yoenis Cespedes (800+ OPS) and Viktor Martinez, who has a 1.111 OPS since Cabrera was put on the disabled list.

The Tigers enter today’s game 2.5 games behind the Twins, meaning a series win would put them right back in the mix for the Wild Card race. On the other hand, a series loss would put them back down to .500 and 4.5 games back. If they fall much further, the Tigers are going to need to make a tough decision.

That’s because a few of their best players - starting pitcher David Price, closer Joakim Soria, and Cespedes - will become free agents at the end of the year. As General Manager Dave Dombrowski found out this summer with Max Scherzer, losing players like that for nothing can really hurt the future of a team. He’ll need to at least entertain the idea of swapping those players for players that can help them in 2016, when perhaps pitcher Justin Verlander (6.75 ERA) returns to form and Cabrera is again healthy.

For those reasons, it’s hard to know for which team this is a bigger series. But make no mistake – it’s big. Let’s look at the pitching matchups.

Thursday – 7:10 – David Price (8-2, 2.54) vs Mike Pelfrey (5-5, 3.94)

Mike Pelfrey might be looking forward to a restful All-Star break more than most; he’s had three bad starts of his last five. Price, meanwhile, has a 1.90 ERA since June 1. The Tigers have a great opportunity to reassert their season-long dominance in the first game of this series.

Friday – 7:10 – Justin Verlander (0-2, 6.75) vs Ervin Santana (0-0, 2.25)

Both teams’ destinies are tied closely to these two starters who have been out most of the season. Verlander missed time with a triceps strain and had been inconsistent in his four starts since. Santana faced an 80-game suspension for PED use but was dominant in his first start last Sunday.

Saturday – 3:05 – TBA, but probably Alfredo Simon (8-5, 4.18) vs. Phil Hughes (7-6, 4.19)

Those stats couldn’t be much closer for these two, but the expectations couldn’t be much further apart. Hughes is supposed to be the Twins workhorse, and has been with 111.2 IP, but a slow start and WAY too many home runs have hurt his overall numbers. Simon has been hanging on to the Tigers’ back of the rotation for well over a year.

Sunday – 1:10 – TBA, but probably Shane Greene (4-6, 5.82 ERA) vs. Kyle Gibson (7-6, 3.04)

Greene is in the minors, but looks to be the likely callup. He was in Detroit’s rotation until he was demoted to Toledo in the beginning of June. Gibson has looked increasingly dominant each month of the season; his K/9 rate by month: April – 2.4, May – 5.4, June – 8.2, July – 9.0.