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    Penciling A 2017 Bullpen


    Seth Stohs

    Yesterday, Nick penciled in a starting rotation for 2017. Improving the Minnesota Twins starting rotation should be (and will be) the top priority for whoever the incoming President of Baseball Operations and General Manager are. Aside from Ervin Santana, the starters have been pretty much awful. The bullpen hasn’t been a whole lot better, so today I’m going to see if I can help pencil in a Twins bullpen for 2017.

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    Like Nick, I’m only going to consider internal options for this exercise. In doing so, you will be able to think about which current members of the organization should (or shouldn’t, if you prefer) be in the bullpen in 2018. It can help determine how many free agent arms the team should consider bringing in.

    In my opinion, these guys should be considered locks for the Twins bullpen in 2017 (again assuming they are not traded):

    Brandon Kintzler: He signed last December as a minor league free agent after four years of MLB service with the Brewers. After a brief stint in Rochester, Kintzler came up and immediately proved that he’s a big leaguer. The last couple of months, he’s held his own as the team’s closer. It’s clear his ideal role is more of a 7th inning guy with good control of a low-to-mid-90s fastball with a lot of movement. He will have one more year of arbitration, but he shouldn’t make more than $2-2.5 million in 2017. Easy choice to bring back the 32-year-old.

    Ryan Pressly: In the first three or four months of the season, he was one of the most used, and usually effective, reliever in baseball. It was clear he wasn’t the same pitcher in the second half. However, Pressly showed again that he throws hard and has a strong pitch-mix that can work well out of the bullpen. The 28-year-old will be arbitration-eligible for the first time this offseason, but he shouldn’t make more than about $1.5 million.

    Taylor Rogers: Rogers was added to the 40-man roster last offseason. He was one of the last players sent to minor league camp in spring. However, within a week of the season opening, he was summoned to the big leagues for his debut. He was sent back down, but it wasn’t long before he was back. The 25-year-old had a very solid rookie season. As he had in the minor leagues, he was great against left-handed hitters.

    JT Chargois: Maybe “Shaggy’s” name isn’t written in pen yet, but in my mind, it should be. The Twins deserve to be commended how how successfully they brought him back from his Tommy John surgery. He had a terrific minor league campaign, limiting walks better than he has in the past. He not unexpectedly struggled upon his promotions, but in September he appears to have figured some things out. He’ll be 26 throughout 2017. He’s ready.

    Now let’s say that those four spots of the bullpen are set, that means that there are three (and possibly four) spots that would be considered open. Below are a bunch of pitchers who could factor into those decisions.

    Glen Perkins: The All-Star closer missed most of the 2016 season and finally had shoulder surgery. All indications are that his rehab is going well, but we can’t state with certainty that he will be ready for spring training, or Opening Day, or when. We do know that when he is deemed ready, he will have a spot in the Twins bullpen.

    Trevor May: On Wednesday night, Mike Berardino informed us that May learned - finally - that he has a stress fracture in his back, something he suspects has been there for awhile. The talk had already been that he would be given an opportunity to go back to starting. His physically well-being will likely be a huge factor in whether he starts or continues to work out of the bullpen.

    Michael Tonkin: Out of options, he made the team out of spring training. He’s certainly had moments and continues to get strikeouts but it’s been a rocky first full season for Tonkin.

    Pat Dean/Ryan O’Rourke/Jason Wheeler/Buddy Boshers/Mason Melotakis/Logan Darnell/David Hurlbut: With Rogers as a lock, in my opinion, there appears to be one more spot for a left-hander. This depends somewhat on Perkins’ status. Also, a long reliever could be left-handed or right-handed. Dean, Wheeler, Darnell and Hurlbut could be long or short relievers. Boshers did a nice job for the Red Wings and Twins in 2016. O’Rourke can certainly get left-handers out and improved against right-handers. Melotakis fits into the left-handed pitcher role, though he has a chance to be a very hard-throwing dominant reliever.

    Pat Light/Alex Wimmers/Tyler Duffey - These are three pitchers who are currently on the active roster who could factor into the 25-man roster in 2016. Duffey could get another shot to start, or as Nick mentioned yesterday, he could move back to the bullpen where he pitched in college. Light has good stuff, but he hasn’t found success the way Chargois has in September, so he’s more of a question mark right now. Wimmers is a former first-round pick who is finally getting a shot. He’s had his ups and downs in his month with the big club. He’s shown an ability to get strikeouts. He’s walked some. His ERA is inflated by one outing where three runs should have been deemed unearned.

    Nick Burdi/Trevor Hildenberger/Jake Reed/Alan Busenitz/Zack Jones: There are pitchers who are not on the 40-man roster yet but who all could factor into the Twins bullpen as early as 2017. Burdi impressed at spring training but he lost his 2016 to a bone bruise on his right elbow. Hildenberger was our minor league reliever of the year for the second straight year. He dominated AA and maybe would have seen some big league time. Unfortunately, he was shut down with elbow tendinitis after a great July and is currently rehabbing in Ft. Myers. Jake Reed pitched well, particularly after his late promotion to Rochester. He throws hard and gets a ton of movement. Busenitz came to the Twins from the Angels organization in the Nolasco/Meyer/Santiago trade; he is another hard-thrower who spent time in AA and AAA with the Twins. Zack Jones was the Rule 5 pick of the Brewers. He was hurt in spring training and spent nearly half the season on the DL before coming back to the Twins organization and pitching well in AA.

    If you’d like, there are several other players who will become free agents after the season’s end. So if you’re in charge, how much time and money would you spend on bringing in bullpen arms? How many of the current pitchers would you say are locks (assuming now trades, and none of these would be completely untouchable)? How many of the young pitchers in the minors would you either want up or not to be blocked?

    These are some of the tough questions the Twins front office, whoever that may be, will need to determine.

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    Not sure how Baxendale would fit into the "Lock" category. He'd fit into the Burdi/Hildy/Reed category for me. I would have liked to see him come up, but it didn't bother me in the least when Wimmers got called up. Much bigger decision to make on him since he's a free agent at the end of the World Series if he hadn't been brought up. At least he got an opportunity, which is is very appreciative of. The decision on Baxendale is whether or not to add him to the 40 man roster in November, and that's far from a given. 

     

    I just have a hard time saying anyone who has no big league experience should be a "lock." That just doesn't make sense to me. 

     

    Hildenberger should be given a legit shot in spring training, but so much of that depends on his elbow situation.

     

    Melotakis was good in his return. The Twins didn't pitch him more than one inning. He didn't pitch on back-to-back days. He still ended up on the DL a couple of times for additional rest. That's all positive. Let's not think that he suddenly jumps into the big leagues because 1.) AAA time won't hurt him, and 2.) at least early, they'll want to test out a few things first. Can he pitch more than one inning? Can he pitch on back-to-back days. Those were the considerations with Chargois. You can control that all in AAA. As we've seen with Chargois in the big leagues, it's all-hands-on-deck, so he's pitched more than 2 innings once or twice, and back-to-back games often. He likely woudln't have been ready for that earlier in the season and certainly not in 2015. I'm on board with the Twins plans for Chargois now that I understand it and see how it changes in the big leagues, and I"m on board with them doing the same with Melotakis. 

     

    Pressly turns 28 in December. He's not old! Unless you're like 18.

    Baxendale is a near lock for me in the same way Rogers was going into 2016. Thanks to being a starter for most of his time in the minors, he's had plenty of experience and has very little to nothing left to prove. His 35 innings in AAA have been very good. He was sufficient as a minors starter but his stuff can play up in the bullpen. He can start as a long reliever or a 6th/7th inning guy depending the other bullpen pieces.

     

    Baxendale is a near lock for me in the same way Rogers was going into 2016. Thanks to being a starter for most of his time in the minors, he's had plenty of experience and has very little to nothing left to prove. His 35 innings in AAA have been very good. He was sufficient as a minors starter but his stuff can play up in the bullpen. He can start as a long reliever or a 6th/7th inning guy depending the other bullpen pieces.

     

    Rogers wasn't a lock going into 2016, though he was up within a week. I'm not sure Baxendale will even be put on the 40-man roster, but if he was, he'll certainly have a chance.




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