TD Top Prospects: #3 Max Kepler

Not saying anything about Plouffe, but 15 triples smells fluky and teams tend to stop running on arms that lead in outfield assists.

 

Single season stats are nice and he should have a chance to back them up. But let's not pretend we know exactly what he is.

I would argue that being afraid of a guys arm, based on his reputation is a good thing.

We don't know exactly what he is. So I don't know why so many seem confident he is going to flop this year.

Not true. The Twins won't "have" to do any such thing.

 

Walker was just added to the 40-man roster. This is just the first of 3 option years for the Twins to decide when/if Walker is ready for a call-up.

Sarcasm.  The imagine comment I thought was more than enough of a clue to not take it seriously.

Why does everyone question Rosario's stat line, based largely on too many k's and not enough walks? At the same time everyone accepts Sano's stats as a true indication of where he will be despite a large number of K's and a bizarre high number of walks.

My guess is that it is almost equally likely that Sano's rate of walks and Rosario's rate of K's will both decline. This could be a real issue for a sophomore jinx for Sano. I personally think each will have decent year and look forward to watching it unfold.

I'm not going to defend Plouffe, as I have said from the start I would trade him for whatever you can get.  

 

But you are very much cherry picking Rosario stats.  Yes, his ops was .748... his OBP was .289, if he had a few more plate appearances to qualify, this would've been 4th worst in the American League.

 

As the other poster said, triples are fluky.  Rosario is a fun player to watch, but the fact remains if he doesn't figure out how to get on base, he's a good 4th outfielder.   

Rosario is always going to have a good slugging though.  That has been his MO.  He had 46 extra base hits in 122 games.  With his doubles-gap type power and speed he should leg out 10 triples a year.  The others are going to be doubles. 

He can have an OBP of .320 with that type of slugging, range, and arm and be a regular above average OF.  A meager 20 basis point improvement on his OBP is completely reasonable.

.320 would be a 31 point improvement, not a 20, fyi.  His 2014 OBP in the minors was .284 as well, this wasn't new

 

And you're right, if he can get on base at a .320+ clip, he will be a valuable player.  Until he proves hes capable of that, he's very replaceable.  

2014 was an outlier for him.  It was half a season after an embarrasing 50 game suspension.  His OBP from 2010 to 2013 (.343, .397, .347, and .350).

And I guess i don't get the 4th outfielder part. He had 1.7 WAR in 122 games with the OBP at .289.  Had he played a full season he would have been about a 2.1 WAR player.  That is not a fourth OF.  He was 25th in slugging across all MLB OF with 300 or more AB's.  Not LF, all MLB OF.  If he does anything like that he can have a lowee OBP and be a fine player.

Just like Cespedes in 2014.  His OBP was .301 and he had a WAR of 4.1. 

The guy had 15 triples, was among the league leaders in OF assists and had nearly a 750 OPS in his first cup of coffee as a 23 year old. Plouffe will likely decline. It is what 30 year olds do.

Try reading the data on the aging curve of 10 year players with 5000 PA.   If Plouffe is that kind of player, the decline will not be pronounced until 34.

 

 

And I guess i don't get the 4th outfielder part. He had 1.7 WAR in 122 games with the OBP at .289.  Had he played a full season he would have been about a 2.1 WAR player.  

Can't assume that's true, since WAR goes up and down during a season, not just up.  Only thing you can say is if he continued to perform exactly the same way, he would have had about 2.1 WAR, but that assumes he would have performed exactly the same way.

Still, a WAR at 2.1 is nice (especially for  rookie), but that is just barely considered a solid starter as opposed to a role player (2-3=solid starter, 1-2=role player).

Try reading the data on the aging curve of 10 year players with 5000 PA.   If Plouffe is that kind of player, the decline will not be pronounced until 34.

The aging curve for hitting is about 6-7 years earlier than 34 based on wRC+.  And these FG charts don't even factor in defense. 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/hitters-no-longer-peak-only-decline/

Can't assume that's true, since WAR goes up and down during a season, not just up.  Only thing you can say is if he continued to perform exactly the same way, he would have had about 2.1 WAR, but that assumes he would have performed exactly the same way.

 

Still, a WAR at 2.1 is nice (especially for  rookie), but that is just barely considered a solid starter as opposed to a role player (2-3=solid starter, 1-2=role player).

Of course there were assumptions built in.  Assuming the same rate seems to me as the fairest way to do it. 

I found it interesting that the Royals only had three position players above your "solid starter" metric last year. His 2.1 would have been the 5th best player on the team that won the WS.

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=6&season=2015&team=7

I found it interesting that the Royals only had three position players above your "solid starter" metric last year. His 2.1 would have been the 5th best player on the team that won the WS.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=6&season=2015&team=7

I am not sure what is interesting about that specifically. There were only 63 qualifying position players/DH at 3.0 or higher, so KC had more than average.  Twins had one, Dozier, who would have been 4th on the Royals.

And overall, 4 starting position players and a DH above 2.0 is quite good.

And it's not my solid starter metric. You quoted WAR in your post category and Fangraphs labels WAR categories not me.

I am not sure what is interesting about that specifically. There were only 63 qualifying position players/DH at 3.0 or higher, so KC had more than average. Twins had one, Dozier, who would have been 4th on the Royals.

 

And overall, 4 starting position players and a DH above 2.0 is quite good.

 

And it's not my solid starter metric. You quoted WAR in your post category and Fangraphs labels WAR categories not me.

Your post sounded dismissive of a 2.1 WAR player. I was just pointing out that guys like this have value.

It was probably also speaking to your post with frustrations about others suggesting he will be nothing more than a fourth OF. That was Mis-guided

Your post sounded dismissive of a 2.1 WAR player. I was just pointing out that guys like this have value.

It was probably also speaking to your post with frustrations about others suggesting he will be nothing more than a fourth OF. That was Mis-guided

Wasn't meant that way.  I was just pointing out that it's not clear that Rosario is a sure fire starting type player based on the stat you used to say he was. I can see both sides of the argument myself.  I think I'll just wait to see how he does this year, myself.  He's a starter for us this season, regardless.  At least to start the season.

Even if all he ends up being is a 4th OF, 4th OFs have value too.  Especially quality defensive guys like Dyson. Rosario could be that guy since a big chunk of his WAR came from defense.  And only 3 LF had more DRS and two of them had WAY more innings out there in LF.

The aging curve for hitting is about 6-7 years earlier than 34 based on wRC+.  And these FG charts don't even factor in defense. 

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/hitters-no-longer-peak-only-decline/

http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/peak_age_by_length_of_career/

 http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/the_ten_year_aging_curve/

Different researchers different things. The drop off comes later for better players. Of note, The decline that older players show from year to year  comes from the fatigue through the year,  Decline for Plouffe is less likely to be significant by other research until around 33. Decline should hardly be  a factor in deciding to extend him.   Given that Frese, a 2 war player couldn't get but 3m a year and only now, it should put to rest why Plouffe was not tradeable