bcs4
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Everything posted by bcs4
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I'm confused by people that don't consider a decline with age. I don't think Santana projects well this year, and that's why I feel we need 2 pitchers. He's likely worth the first 2, maybe the third, but not the final 3. If the value of marginal wins is variable, how can a pitcher's contribution be calculated? We would do better by signing a hitter instead of Darvish.
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Don't know how, but my reply got deleted. So here it is:) Not at all. The difference between your reading and mine is that I read it to conclusion: I feel it’s reasonable to begin a performance value model with 3.3 WAR, which is the midpoint of the model above and his statistical projection for 2018. Doing so leads to a five-year breakeven point of $111.96 million. In that regard, a contract offer of five years and $105 million seems fair with a top end of $120 million. As with Arrieta, pushing to that final number or beyond (whether seasons or salary) is begging for issues as the contract concludes.
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Yes, that's the question.
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Don't get me wrong, I'm not a proponent of WAR. Your point seems to conclude that the Twins won't be in a wild card chase in the last 3 years of a 6 year contract when Darvish is adding an average of less than 1 marginal win per season for $21 mil a year. Or even $21 mil for 2 marginal wins in 2 years. I would say instead of providing a value to the Twins, he would only be of value to the very best teams with a lot to spend because they would be more able to dump him when he's no longer producing. If they don't, and they sign all of their free agents this way, they'll be future wild card contenders at best. It would lead me to believe that trades with non contenders would be a much better option than buying a free agent like Darvish.
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For fans of WAR and Steamer, here's Sporting News. I know that projections are just projections, but he comes up with values that are closer to mine, so it goes without saying that he's correct. http://www.sportingnews.com/mlb/news/mlb-free-agent-rumors-news-jake-arrieta-yu-darvish-2018-contract-value-estimate-war/67xwoocnnddd1kcmncyuxocs2
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The only thing that I've seen is that Darvish was a priority. What else was said? What did you see that I missed? If that's what your talking about, are you saying that it was "heavily implied" that they would sign Darvish at any cost? Talk about a rationalization. Look at the definition of priority.
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I did. If MLB felt as strongly about 31 year olds for 6 years as they used to, he would have been signed for more. I don't see him as an exception to the my point, I see him as evidence for my point.
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The Twins need more than 1 pitcher. I never wanted Darvish at that price. If the Twins even got close to that amount, they WERE aggressive. If he went for less than expected it's more likely that the league is finally starting to realize that value isn't in signing 31 year old pitchers for big money and a long time. That said, Cobb and Lynn together could possibly be had for the same money that Darvish will be making each year, but for 4 years instead of 6. If the Twins sign a dud or two to be "inning eaters" I'll be just as angry as you are with Darvish. As far as objectivity is concerned, I think I've been objective and you've been subjective. I'm sure that you feel the opposite, again though, that's what MLB forums are for.
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To what? According to half the participants in the discussion, he went for less than he should have.
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I haven't said that Mauer wasn't worth signing to a contract based on his history. I'm saying that long term contracts for big money don't make sense. I think MLB is starting to realize that.
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Saying it isn't proof doesn't prove anything. At the very least the Mauer contract is evidence that a long term contract for big $ is a huge risk. The risk in his case is that a player signed can be injured, or end up playing a position with numbers that don't justify big money. Slacking or not, he wasn't worth it.
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?
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Do you know?
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Can we pretend to want to know to pretend to make a point or not? Maybe?
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Yes, that's exactly what I mean. Every player gets to choose their team based on the team that they liked as a kid. They also get to wear their favorite player's shoes. I called it. Infinity plus 1.
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"Believed to be" is the weakest source description. It's basically talk around the coffee pot. "Rumored to be" is stronger. next would be something like a "source familiar with the negotiations", and then it would be something like "several sources close to the negotiations". You may not believe what I'm saying, but my Dad was a reporter. Reporters watch source descriptions so they know how hard to work a lead. I hope that the offer is reported. I'm also pretty sure that FAs have lattitude when it comes to choosing a team, because I've heard of player decisions coming down to where they wanted to live. Regardless, I hope things start moving..
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If I wasn't a Twins fan, I doubt that I'd play for the Twins.
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I thought that was Milwaukee's offer. Does the MLBPA get a copy of the offers? I'd think the offer would require confidentiality. Maybe not.
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I didn't see the offer. What was it? It might put this to rest.
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https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/01/140122170622.htm
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Not at all. Everyone is making assumptions and there isn't one that's more valid than another. I think Darvish didn't want to play for the Twins. I can't blame him.
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Yes. Contract slacking.
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The reason that all of us are here is because we want the Twins to win more. All that I'm saying is that thay were a lot more fun to watch before the Mauer contract. I think the stats would bear that out.
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Occam's Razor. Argument From Ignorance. Straw Man. Etc
