bcs4

No trend line is straight. Thirty is not that old. There is no indication of a peak, but even if it flattens, he's much more valuable than some + pitching prospects, or some lesser position player with no fairly strong trends and a + pitching prospect. I would never say never, but they need to get a lot for him or it's just not a good trade.

I've been wrong before, but it's likely moot. Sano will be playing 1B in 2018.

That's an interesting take on the stats, and trends. I guess I don't understand your definition of peaked.

Palka hits more HR per AB, has a 1 point better BA, and 3 points less OBP, and Palka strikes out roughly 30% compared to Bellinger's 27%. Almost identical. Vargas hit HRs at a better pace than either Palka or Bellinger and his OBP was 40 points higher than either one. His overall annualized MLB stats for last year were more productive than either Bellinger or Palka in the minors. I didn't say you were targetting Bellinger. You were implying that he was a better prospect than anything that the Twins had. He just isn't.

Runs, slug, RBI, and HRs are pretty much improving every year, while BA and OBP pretty much has remained the same. If you mean erratic as in his stats are changing every year, then yes they ar,. They're getting better. I guess I'm just not understanding who these multiple players will be. You do understand that the more prospects that we get for a player, the lower average quality they will be, right? Maybe you could pick a team and make up a package that you think is a fair trade?

Quote: ""This is pretty wrong, in many levels, the least of it is that based on that logic, one could credit the "semi-success" of 2015 for a potential pennant in 2018. Not really. First, I used the word "could". Second, conjecture is not logic, it's conjecture. I've yet to see logic employed in any sports forum is reasoning. Quote: "Matter of fact, "unsuccessful" (in W-L) previous rebuilding seasons have more to do with winning a pennant, that half-mashed .500 mediocre seasons with mediocre veterans blocking rebuilds (ask the 1991 Twins, if you don't believe me.)" Hardly. For 2 reasons. Show me a World Series winner that was coming off a sub 500 season, and I'll show you 10 that didn't. But based on your example the Twins have an excellent chance of winning the World Series next year. Quote: "Twins do not have a single 1B prospect that is good. Not one that is as good as Bellinger both offensively and defensively. Having a group of guys that can only play 1B or Dh doesn't actually mean having quality prospects for 1B". I'd say Vargas, Palka, Sano and Park are all good prospects. Palka, Sano and Park all look to have similar HR and slug numbers though their BA appear to be 20 to 25 points lower. I can't comment on fielding. as I haven't seen Bellinger play. Regardless, I don't think that';s much of a basis for trading Dozier, especially if you're dropping a good 1B prospect to make room for Bellinger. Quote: "If people won't trade Dozier for top SP prospects, they would never trade any veteran to get younger and more players. Which is fine.....just glad you aren't the GM." The goal isn't to get younger, it's to get better. "Top pitching prospects" is a term that's used a lot. Are you talking about pitchers like Berrios, May, or Meyers? Maybe it would help if you could come up with some MLB ready prospects that you consider a top prospects. Quote: "Dozier has peaked" Based on? Quote: "We needed the good Dozier twice in the last two years. The end of '15 to finish of the drive to the second WC, and the beginning of '16 to get off on the right foot. He was nowhere to be found." Well.. Dozier was perhaps the biggest reason that they were even in contention in '15. If the begging of 2016 is your only other measure of value, there isn't one other member of the team that has any value. Not one. Quote: "While Polanco will likely not hit the number of HR's, he will end up a better hitter overall...Plus it removes Polanco from SS, a position that the Twins really need to upgrade past his level" Polanco is likely to have higher BA and OBP, but not likely anything else, so how will he be a better hitter? As to your second point, Polanco at SS (if he plays at current levels) is a very small problem if all the other problems are considered. 3B, LF, RF, 1B, C, 4 RPs and 4 SPs are all bigger problems in my opinion. The only players that I'm fairly confident to have good years are E Santana, Dozier, Buxton, and Chargois, Please forgive me for not using the quote feature here. Win Twins

I don't know why everyone seems to be in such a hurry to trade Dozier. A) Puig is a pain in the ass. B.) The Twins don't need another first base prospect because they already have more first base prospects than any other position, and the leading candidate is probably Sano. C) The Twins have a horrible history with SP prospects (as do MOST teams). Hopefully that will change in the near future, but who knows. Everyone should remember that Dozier has a WAR of 5ish with a history of improvement every year. That's worth SEVERAL high quality pitching prospects, and I don't mean prospects that project to 4s or 5s. Quantity is not a replacement for quality. If the Twins get 3 or 4 pitching prospects, they'll have to make room for them, so they have to be better than the pitchers that they replace. It would take a very strong minor league system for a team to be able to offer that many really quality pitching prospects. D) Everyone keeps talking about the future being at least 2 or 3 years away, but Dozier has value now because there is the real possibility of a team that is in the chase until the last 2 or 3 weeks of the season. That makes NEXT year much more enjoyable. It might also give some of the younger players a taste of how it feels to compete. I want to keep Dozier for these reasons alone. A Pennant in 2 or 3 years could be the result of a semi-successful 2017. The future also includes next year. E) A lot of the people that want to trade Dozier also want to trade Santana. What do most of them want for Santana? Pitching prospects. Why trade our only good players for maybe a 15% chance of a #1 or #2 SP in 2 years? Again, what about NEXT year? F) Dozier was one of the only reasons to watch in the last 1/3rd of 2016. That in itself is an important reason to demand a very, very good return if he's traded. When you consider his WAR too, the Twins need to get a young #3 SP or a 3+ WAR catcher. Other than that, they need another 4+ position player for him. If not, keep him. Now leaving the podium. Win Twins!

Oh, I thought you were talking about Ervin Santana. One other thing. Dozier's WAR over the last 3 years is the same as Sales'. I think he's worth substantially more than you give him credit for.

Not asking for names, but what would you expect to get for Santana and Dozier?

Keep Dozier unless someone really, really wants him. If the rationalization is that he won't be around for a championship, you could say exactly the same thing for any pitcher that you'd trade him for. Unless they can get a legitimate #2 + good prospects or #1 starter keep him. He is worth that much. Let Plouffe go. If Sano doesn't change his attitude, trade him in 2 years. He's not likely to be a 3rd baseman. He's really shown no sign even in the minors that he can be, and unless his offense improves, he's not a good DH either. If he treads water for 2 years, he's still likely to have value because people like to see long home runs. Dozier proved this year that long home runs aren't that important. Let Gibson go at mid-season if he doesn't show consistency. He won't. The Twins have starter prospects in the minors. Let them pitch. Absolutely keep Ervin Santana. Why the Twins would consider trading their only starter makes no sense. Hopefully, they will just let Berrios pitch next year. I like Bert as a broadcaster, but he's doesn't need to be telling Berrios how far his hand should go behind his back. Berrios shows every sign of a kid that has so many people giving him advice, that he can't tie his shoes any more. Maybe start in AAA to recover. I just hope they haven't totally screwed him. Neil Allen. Gone. Who knows with Mauer. He's a good fielder, but his bat stinks for 1B. Doesn't seem to be a bench presence. He's also not a DH. If Vargas hits like he did when he came back up, he should be 1B. Let Mauer sign autographs, or just acknowledge that the money is gone and let him go. Rosario is through their sophomore season. I see him providing more than Kepler next year. Danny Santana, not so much. Catchers? Who knows. Murphy hit a bit when he came back up, but he's not good defensively. Get a catcher that's really good with pitchers, even if he hits 180. Relievers? Instead of spending a ton on a reliever, I'd rather add that to the money that they'd be willing to pay a good starter. Another good starter might eliminate a reliever anyway. There, I've solved all their problems. World series next year after all. WIN TWINS!