I have seen complaints about many Twins players so far across our comment sections and Twitter. Even Nelson Cruz, who’s been almost unanimously admired by the fanbase and may be the team’s most threatening bat. It happens. No one is to tell you how you should think, no matter how statistically unusual your opinion might be. But there’s one particular take that has spread quickly all over Twins Territory and it puzzles me.
I don’t think there is any Twin who has been more complained about this season than Jason Castro has. Even though I don’t agree with the large number of fans (at least that I have seen so far) that have been vocal about wanting him gone from the Twins, it’s completely understandable. Afterall, Minnesota’s offense has been amazing, especially after this weekend’s series in Baltimore. Castro, very obviously, hasn’t been nearly as productive as his teammates. But ditching him might be too simple of a solution and, in my opinion, not the wisest of choices.
Castro is in the last year of his three-year contract with the Twins, signed in late 2016. Per Baseball Reference, he is the third highest paid position player of the roster this season, in which he is owed $ 8 million. At 31 and with two very hot bats battling him for the position of catcher, it’s very unlikely that Minnesota will renew its commitment with Castro after the season is finished. But that doesn’t mean he serves the team no purpose this season.
Since the start of the 2017 season, the Twins haven’t won more games while starting any other catcher than Castro. Here’s the team’s record with each starting catcher since then:
Jason Castro: 69-62 (.526) Mitch Garver: 38-48 (.441) Chris Gimenez: 32-29 (.524) Bobby Wilson: 24-21 (.533) Willians Astudillo: 10-8 (.555) Juan Graterol: 2-0 (1.000)
Whether you associate the team’s record with Castro’s presence or not, the numbers don’t lie. The Twins have been a winning team with him behind home plate. But, of course, this could be highly circumstantial and it’s too hard of a connection to make. But, wait. The list of perks from having Castro on board goes on.
The biggest point used by the anti-Castro party so far is how bad he’s been on offense, not only this year, but ever since he came to Minnesota. And that becomes a much stronger point when you have Mitch Garver blossoming into one of the best offensive catchers in the game and the also the Willians Astudillo phenomenon captivating our hearts each day more. A lot of folks label Castro as dead weight on offense. But, is he?
Well, he isn’t, for sure, as prolific as the remainder of the Twins lineup. But, to be fair, neither are two thirds of all MLB lineups. But that doesn’t mean Castro hasn’t done his part. Right now, he holds the team’s fourth highest OBP, with .360. Other than that, that’s tied for MLB’s 12th best OBP among catchers (min. 25 PA). I’m sorry, but one doesn’t just throw away a Joe Mauer-type occupation of bases just like that.
Besides that, Castro’s .333 OBP as an 8th batter ranks 15th in MLB among all such hitters (min. 21 PA). This may sound like very little, but when you look at the fact that Minnesota has one of the league’s best bottom part of the lineup, you can tell how important Castro’s contribution really is. Currently, when taking into account the positions seven, eight and nine of the lineup, Minnesota has a .273 AVG (3rd best in the league), .346 OBP (4th), .487 SLG (3rd) and .833 OPS (3rd). Say what you want about how Byron Buxton is the biggest responsible for such productivity. You’re right. But you can’t realistically say that Castro hasn’t done his part.
Then, one might point out that Garver and Astudillo have been incomparably more productive on offense and one would definitely be right. They both have been raking, especially my former UNM colleague. If offense was the only aspect on the table, there wouldn’t be a lot of reasons to start Castro over the other two much more than Ehire Adrianza over Jorge Polanco. It wouldn’t make any sense. Well, but it isn’t.
At the same proportion that Castro’s offense is no match to his competition, his defense would similarly be no match to his competition. And I’m not just talking about widely explored pitch framing stats, Castro’s biggest advertisement tool throughout his career. Twins pitchers have performed much better while being caught by him than by any of the other two.
Finally digging into the somewhat popular pitch framing stats, by using Baseball Prospectus’ Framing Runs metric, we can notice that Castro is the 11th best catcher at it in the MLB, with +0.6. Astudillo ranks 51st, with -0.2 and Garver ranks 60th, with -0.5. This is not a hit at Garver, whom I absolutely enjoy seeing play and am sure is going to be the team’s main catcher for years, but he is still not on the same defensive level as Castro is. But, hey, that’s not even a bad thing, because now we get to Castro’s biggest importance for the Twins.
It’s obvious that Garver can hit. We’ve known this since he was a minor leaguer. But picture this: what if we could get Garver’s offense and combine it with Castro’s defense? That, ladies and gentlemen, could be Jason’s biggest contribution for Minnesota. I have been personally tracking each pitcher strike percentage with each catcher on this spreadsheet since the beginning of the season and I can tell you how much Garver has been evolving. By mentoring Garver, especially defense-wise, Castro could lead him into the Twins best catcher since… well, you know who.
Once again, let me make it clear that I’m not trying to change anyone’s opinion here. But I do give a piece of advice. Instead of getting angry and vent over how bad Castro’s bat is, why not look at him as a source of improvement for one of the Twins biggest hopes for the future? I don’t believe it’s good to take his help for granted. Besides, like demonstrated in the beginning of this article, the Twins are a winning team with Castro on board. It has been like that in 2017, culminating in their first playoffs appearance in almost a decade. They were dreadful without him last year. Now, they are back, at least momentarily, at the top of the Central. This can’t be a coincidence.
Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch ----------- As the Minnesota Twins are evaluating their front office, I would like to take the opportunity to objectively evaluate the performance of certain parts of their front office for which there might be appropriate objective evaluation criteria. Deron Johnson, the Twins scouting director since 2008, who came into the organization when the dearly departed Terry Ryan became the General Manager in 1994, as a regional scout, has been primarily responsible for the Rule 4 amateur draft. There is a feeling that the Twins do not draft and develop players well. But drafting and developing are two different things, and need to see how each of them might be performing against the rest of the league.
How has Johnson done against the league, in the draft?
Here is the data: I looked at the overall WAR for each team for each draft for all players selected by that team in the first 10 rounds of that draft. Calculated the average WAR for each draft and the teams better are indicated with green. The teams are listed alphabetically and the Twins are bolded. Averages in yellow indicate small sample size, because simply not enough players made it to the bigs in the last few seasons to make any conclusions, but the ones who made it, count to the total team WAR numbers, since Deron Johnson was responsible for the Twins draft.
Long story short:
During the time that Johnson has been in charge of the Twins draft the Twins did better than only 6 other teams in the league: The Red Sox, Yankees, Phillies and the Rangers who all are willing to open their wallets and buy players drafted and developed by others and, surprisingly, the Rays, who are more than willing to sell everyone high to restock their system with players that other teams drafted to develop. The Twins do neither, so that it a pretty big problem. And yes Deron Johnson has been performing way below average, and D students should go home...
Few notes:
This is pretty interesting data about where the Twins can look to stock their front office. Surprisingly, the Diamondbacks', Padres', Jays', White Sox', and Nationals' systems might be good sources of scouting talent to replace at least Deron and some of his scouts. If it were not for 2009 where Dozier and Gibson account for most of the Twins' WAR, the numbers would be really pathetic. If you look at teams like the White Sox, that have had the fourth best draft WAR in the period and really nothing to show about it in the majors, you can make easy conclusions about problems with their development and management systems Yes, there are up and downs in most teams, but with the Twins other than 2009, it has been mostly downs, and the other teams, have done something about it (replacing under-performing Front Office pieces.) Will the Twins have the guts to do the same?
Last night, Torii Hunter decided to officially hang up his cleats after 19 seasons playing Major League Baseball. Having spent the majority of his career with the Twins, the fan favorite no doubt will go down as one of the most celebrated Minnesota sports figures ever. What he should not do though is see his number hung from the rafters (er above Barrio in left field). Instead, his next stop should be the mound for a ceremonial first pitch.
There's little denying that Torii Hunter gave both the Minnesota Twins and the game of baseball a significant amount of lift. He was a nine-time Gold Glove award winner, he went to four All Star games, and he won two Silver Sluggers in his career. The Arkansas native belted 353 career home runs, tallied 2,452 hits, and drove in 1,391 runs. By all measurable standards it was a great career.
That also presents the issue for Hunter in regards to retiring number 48. It was great, but not exceptional. As things stand currently, the Minnesota Twins have retired just seven numbers. Those include Kirby Puckett, Harmon Killebrew, Kent Hrbek, Tony Oliva, Rod Carew, Tom Kelly, and Bert Blyleven. Four of those players are in the Hall of Fame, one is an eight-time All Star, another is a two-time World Series manager, and the final is somewhat of a by-product of being a hometown hero. So, where does Torii fit among that grouping?
In terms of statistical quantification, Hunter has compiled a career 41.6 fWAR. That number is higher than only Tony Oliva (40.7 fWAR) and Kent Hrbek (37.6 fWAR). It trails significantly behind Kirby Puckett (66.1 fWAR), Rod Carew (72.3 fWAR), and Bert Blyleven (102.9). Hunter's best season by fWAR standards came in 2012 (with the Angels) when he posted a 5.2 mark. On a per season basis, he's averaged just 2.19 fWAR. To put that into context, Eddie Rosario posted a 2.3 fWAR for the Twins in 2013.
When deciding whether or not to retire Hunter's number, it's probably less about the numbers than the other factors surrounding it. Looking back on his career, you'd be hard pressed to argue that Hunter's value across Twins Territory was not first and foremost felt through an emotional attachment. He was fun to watch, played the game the right way, and got it done. As noted above though, he was great, but not exceptional. Allowing him in the club opens up a difficult door.
Looking back at some of the teams Torii was best known for, there's two other names that would seem to be in his class. Both Brad Radke and Joe Nathan could have a similar claim to make should Hunter's jersey be no more. Radke owned a 38.7 fWAR despite being a pitcher and playing for only 12 seasons (he also was with the Twins for all of them). While Nathan can't be quantified through WAR, his Twins record saves total comes full circle.
In total, the suggestion is far from Torii Hunter not being celebrated, he absolutely should. However, he should not be revered, and the honor of a number no longer being available should remain a sacred right of passage. Hunter has my vote to throw out the first pitch on Opening Day 2016, but leave the jersey retiring to those who achieved more.
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