PSzalapski

I threw Shields' name out there because the Twins need to aim high. They have the money to spend. Any top-shelf pitchers the Twins should target in addition to a reclamation project?

All along this year, I have been holding out hope that the 2014 Twins could compete to win their division. Although things look a bit dimmer now than at the beginning of the year, I'd like to think that's still true. I've been mulling over what needs to be done to make that happen. I was at Target Field for Saturday's game against the Indians. My first disappointment was that Kevin Correia was pitching--but I couldn't any Twins pitcher that I'd rather see. I settled into my seat and took in every Twins batter that came up. As the Twins went through the lineup, I realized that I had no confidence in any of them except Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau. Sure enough, they both went 2-for-3 with a walk, whereas the rest of the team was 2-for-25. This performance brought to memory all I already know about the Twins. I questioned my assumption that the Twins could win a lot next year, and I began to ponder what they should do. Here's what I came up with. Some ground rules: I'm assuming twelve pitchers, as that seems to be more common for the Twins lately. I'm assuming only one backup outfielder (especially since the Twins have none right now), and that Ryan Doumit can continue as the second catcher without further backup. I'm figuring on six capable starting pitchers, as you always need at least that many, if not seven or eight. Obviously, this is only one example roster, and the real 2014 roster will fluctuate throughout the season. First, here's the default roster--that is, if Terry Ryan does nothing, here's what we're stuck with. Surprisingly, there are very few differences from 2013; the only free agents leaving are Morneau, Jamey Carroll, and Mike Pelfrey. I'm assuming they will all be gone--even if any of them re-sign, that will be a free agent signing we should consider just like any other. Also, with Morneau's declining production, I can't see the Twins offering Morneau a $14M one-year qualifying offer, as Morneau would probably just take it and be happy, eating up too much payroll too fast. I've also included the players' presumed 2014 salary and their service time (if bound to the Twins) or contract expiration. (There's a lot of nuance I'm not capturing here; suffice it to say that players with 3 years of experience are eligible for arbitration and those with 6 years experience can become free agents.) 2014 Minnesota Twins - Apathy edition Pos Player Salary Service/Contract === ========= ====== ======= C Mauer $23.0M 2018 1B Parmelee .5M 1 yr 2B Dozier .5M 1 yr SS Florimon .5M 1 yr 3B Plouffe 1.5M 3 yr LF Willingham 7.0M 2014 CF Hicks .5M 1 yr RF Arcia .5M 1 yr DH Doumit 3.5M 2014 UI Escobar .5M 2 yr 4O Thomas .5M 1 yr 1B Colabello .5M Rookie 1P Gibson .5M Rookie 2P Worley .5M 2 yr 3P Correia 5.5M 2014 4P Deduno .5M 1 yr 5P Diamond .5M 2 yr 6P Walters .5M 2 yr RP Swarzak 2.0M 3 yr RP Thielbar .5M 1 yr RP Fien .5M 1 yr RP Duensing 2.5M 4 yr RP Burton 3.3M 2015 CP Perkins 3.8M 2016 =========================== 25-man roster 59.6M Well, that's depressing. What can we do to improve this? The one bright spot is that we have a lot of money to work with. The 2013 payroll is at $85 million, and Twins President Dave St. Peter has stated that Ryan could have spent more had there been some good buys out there. I'm going to assume that the Twins, if they see an opportunity to be competitive, could easily spend $100 million on payroll in 2014; the chance is there for them to spend even more. MAke no mistake: the Twins will never spend money for the sake of it; they certainly could cut salary again in 2014 if there isn't a big improvement. Let's start with the most obvious need: starting pitching. I'm going to stash Alex Meyer at Rochester with the assumption that he'll be called up mid-season. His time in New Britain this year is going well but not superb, and he isn't the youngest prospect pitcher in the Twins system, so they need to get him up as soon as he can possibly be successful. First up in the real rotation, Correia has been pleasantly adequate as a starting pitcher, so I will be keeping him in the rotation. The bottom line is that it is always hard to get starting pitchers, and the Twins don't have the luxury of discarding a above-replacement-level starter already signed, so I've penciled him in. The same thinking goes for Vance Worley. I'm going to assume he will eventually be called up to rejoin the Twins this year and being contributing. The Twins signed him to be a middle-of-the-rotation guy for years to come, and it would be foolish--especially at his pre-arbitration salary--to give up on him or stash him at Rochester. His absence just leaves too big a hole to fill. Likewise, you can't give up on Kyle Gibson even if the rest of his rookie year ends up a bit stinky. Gibson needs to be better next year for the Twins to win, and there's no reason to think that impossible or even unlikely. Ideally, those three would be the back of the rotation, not the front. Minor-league options like Andrew Albers, P.J. Walters, or Logan Darnell aren't going to cut it. The Twins need to go sign or trade for some starters. I have no idea who the Twins could get, but whoever they are, they need to be very good if this team is to be competitive. Let's just start with someone like James Shields, who has a 3.83 career ERA, a 4.6 K/BB ratio, and high innings pitched every year. Assuming the Royals decline their $14M option, could he be had for 3 years, $45M? It would be one of the biggest contracts the Twins have ever given out, but that's what it takes to get a top starting pitcher. The Twins wanted but couldn't get Phil Hughes from the Yankees in the talks for Johan Santana. Assuming the Yankees don't want him back, could the Twins make a big splash and sign Hughes to his first free agent deal? It might take a big number--I'll just randomly guess 5 years, $75M? I'm more likely to say the Twins would be nuts to commit that many years to a pitcher with a mixed record. Instead, the Twins could have a less risky move in signing a reclamation project; how about Scott Kazmir? His comeback year with the Indians is going well; maybe the Twins could snatch him up for 2 years/$12 million. Also, after the Nishioka debacle, they are probably wary--but could the Twins could make another run internationally and try to acquire someone like Suk Min Yoon? The Korean phenom was rumored to be coming to America in 2012, but he never went on the market. After two more excellent years in Korea, maybe 2014 would be more to his liking? If the Twins could get two of these players (or any other good starting pitching), a winning team for 2014 looks conceivable. If they can't, I might as well not finish this series, because their pitching won't allow them to compete regardless of any lineup overhauls. Pos Player Salary Service/Contract === ========= ====== ======= 1P Shields 15.0M ??? 2P Gibson .5M Rookie 3P Kazmir 6.0M ??? 4P Worley .5M 2 yr 5P Correia 5.5M 2014 6P Deduno .5M 1 yr[font=courier new] Payroll increased to $80.6M[/font] Next up: the Twins need more hitting, too. In the meantime, what possible starting pitching moves do you think are ambitious but conceivable for the Twins?

All along this year, I have been holding out hope that the 2014 Twins could compete to win their division. Although things look a bit dimmer now than at the beginning of the year, I'd like to think that's still true. I've been mulling over what needs to be done to make that happen. I was at Target Field for Saturday's game against the Indians. My first disappointment was that Kevin Correia was pitching--but I couldn't any Twins pitcher that I'd rather see. I settled into my seat and took in every Twins batter that came up. As the Twins went through the lineup, I realized that I had no confidence in any of them except Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau. Sure enough, they both went 2-for-3 with a walk, whereas the rest of the team was 2-for-25. This performance brought to memory all I already know about the Twins. I questioned my assumption that the Twins could win a lot next year, and I began to ponder what they should do. Here's what I came up with. Some ground rules: I'm assuming twelve pitchers, as that seems to be more common for the Twins lately. I'm assuming only one backup outfielder (especially since the Twins have none right now), and that Ryan Doumit can continue as the second catcher without further backup. I'm figuring on six capable starting pitchers, as you always need at least that many, if not seven or eight. Obviously, this is only one example roster, and the real 2014 roster will fluctuate throughout the season. First, here's the default roster--that is, if Terry Ryan does nothing, here's what we're stuck with. Surprisingly, there are very few differences from 2013; the only free agents leaving are Morneau, Jamey Carroll, and Mike Pelfrey. I'm assuming they will all be gone--even if any of them re-sign, that will be a free agent signing we should consider just like any other. Also, with Morneau's declining production, I can't see the Twins offering Morneau a $14M one-year qualifying offer, as Morneau would probably just take it and be happy, eating up too much payroll too fast. I've also included the players' presumed 2014 salary and their service time (if bound to the Twins) or contract expiration. (There's a lot of nuance I'm not capturing here; suffice it to say that players with 3 years of experience are eligible for arbitration and those with 6 years experience can become free agents.) 2014 Minnesota Twins - Apathy edition Pos Player Salary Service/Contract === ========= ====== ======= C Mauer $23.0M 2018 1B Parmelee .5M 1 yr 2B Dozier .5M 1 yr SS Florimon .5M 1 yr 3B Plouffe 1.5M 3 yr LF Willingham 7.0M 2014 CF Hicks .5M 1 yr RF Arcia .5M 1 yr DH Doumit 3.5M 2014 UI Escobar .5M 2 yr 4O Thomas .5M 1 yr 1B Colabello .5M Rookie 1P Gibson .5M Rookie 2P Worley .5M 2 yr 3P Correia 5.5M 2014 4P Deduno .5M 1 yr 5P Diamond .5M 2 yr 6P Walters .5M 2 yr RP Swarzak 2.0M 3 yr RP Thielbar .5M 1 yr RP Fien .5M 1 yr RP Duensing 2.5M 4 yr RP Burton 3.3M 2015 CP Perkins 3.8M 2016 =========================== 25-man roster 59.6M Well, that's depressing. What can we do to improve this? The one bright spot is that we have a lot of money to work with. The 2013 payroll is at $85 million, and Twins President Dave St. Peter has stated that Ryan could have spent more had there been some good buys out there. I'm going to assume that the Twins, if they see an opportunity to be competitive, could easily spend $100 million on payroll in 2014; the chance is there for them to spend even more. MAke no mistake: the Twins will never spend money for the sake of it; they certainly could cut salary again in 2014 if there isn't a big improvement. Let's start with the most obvious need: starting pitching. I'm going to stash Alex Meyer at Rochester with the assumption that he'll be called up mid-season. His time in New Britain this year is going well but not superb, and he isn't the youngest prospect pitcher in the Twins system, so they need to get him up as soon as he can possibly be successful. First up in the real rotation, Correia has been pleasantly adequate as a starting pitcher, so I will be keeping him in the rotation. The bottom line is that it is always hard to get starting pitchers, and the Twins don't have the luxury of discarding a above-replacement-level starter already signed, so I've penciled him in. The same thinking goes for Vance Worley. I'm going to assume he will eventually be called up to rejoin the Twins this year and being contributing. The Twins signed him to be a middle-of-the-rotation guy for years to come, and it would be foolish--especially at his pre-arbitration salary--to give up on him or stash him at Rochester. His absence just leaves too big a hole to fill. Likewise, you can't give up on Kyle Gibson even if the rest of his rookie year ends up a bit stinky. Gibson needs to be better next year for the Twins to win, and there's no reason to think that impossible or even unlikely. Ideally, those three would be the back of the rotation, not the front. Minor-league options like Andrew Albers, P.J. Walters, or Logan Darnell aren't going to cut it. The Twins need to go sign or trade for some starters. I have no idea who the Twins could get, but whoever they are, they need to be very good if this team is to be competitive. Let's just start with someone like James Shields, who has a 3.83 career ERA, a 4.6 K/BB ratio, and high innings pitched every year. Assuming the Royals decline their $14M option, could he be had for 3 years, $45M? It would be one of the biggest contracts the Twins have ever given out, but that's what it takes to get a top starting pitcher. The Twins wanted but couldn't get Phil Hughes from the Yankees in the talks for Johan Santana. Assuming the Yankees don't want him back, could the Twins make a big splash and sign Hughes to his first free agent deal? It might take a big number--I'll just randomly guess 5 years, $75M? I'm more likely to say the Twins would be nuts to commit that many years to a pitcher with a mixed record. Instead, the Twins could have a less risky move in signing a reclamation project; how about Scott Kazmir? His comeback year with the Indians is going well; maybe the Twins could snatch him up for 2 years/$12 million. Also, after the Nishioka debacle, they are probably wary--but could the Twins could make another run internationally and try to acquire someone like Suk Min Yoon? The Korean phenom was rumored to be coming to America in 2012, but he never went on the market. After two more excellent years in Korea, maybe 2014 would be more to his liking? If the Twins could get two of these players (or any other good starting pitching), a winning team for 2014 looks conceivable. If they can't, I might as well not finish this series, because their pitching won't allow them to compete regardless of any lineup overhauls. Pos Player Salary Service/Contract === ========= ====== ======= 1P Shields 15.0M ??? 2P Gibson .5M Rookie 3P Kazmir 6.0M ??? 4P Worley .5M 2 yr 5P Correia 5.5M 2014 6P Deduno .5M 1 yr[font=courier new] Payroll increased to $80.6M[/font] Next up: the Twins need more hitting, too. In the meantime, what possible starting pitching moves do you think are ambitious but conceivable for the Twins?

Is there anyone that could get the author or blog name included in the RSS feed? Without it, I just see the content of the post and I have no idea if I'm reading the Geek, Nick, Parker, Jim, or anyone else. you're all excellent, but it still would be nice to know who I'm reading. Example screenshot below. It doesn't matter much to me where the author's name goes--as long as it's in there somewhere. I'll send you five bucks if you can make it happen--maybe other RSS fans would pledge the same? Alternatively, I can help you figure out how. http://i.imgur.com/4uP0L.png

Why not take a chance on Rizzotti? John A, doesn't a .900 OPS in A/AA project to something much better than a .700 OPS in the majors? I suppose there could be a reason the Phillies kept him out of AAA--perhaps he can't hit hard breaking balls or something--but you can't see it in his stats. Put him in AAA; either he forces you to promote him or he doesn't. Either way, it doesn't hurt.

I really hope Marquis can duplicate his numbers from 2009, but 2011, 2010, 2008, 2007, and 2006 speak that he probably can't. Seth, you really think a 4.70 ERA with a bad K:BB ratio and a fair amount of home runs given up is the pitcher I'm describing?

John, $400K really that big of a gamble? Suppose the chance was 20% that Zumaya could even contribute. Isn't that worth the risk?

I just read the news about Joel Zumaya. I suppose none of us should be surprised Zumaya could be injured. Some will use this as an opportunity to say that the twins should have signed more help for the bullpen. While that may be true, I think it ignores the bigger picture. The Twins need to improve their teaching staff as a whole and two thirds of the innings of a pitching staff come from starters. Now I've heard it said that the Twins have five number four starters. I think this is a little bit too simple of an assessment. Baker, Liriano, and Pavano are all good pitchers. Of course there are flaws in each one. But any team in the nation would be happy to sign them to their rotation were the Twins to cut them today. The two others in the rotation, Blackburn and (presumably) Marquis, are a different story. The aren't expected to be good pitchers, and they don't show the potential to get much better. If the Twins were serious about contending this year, they should have signed or traded for a legitimate middle-of-the-rotation starter to take 180-220 innings, all of which are by definition winnable or losable games, since they are after all starting a tied game. That is a much bigger concern than replacing the 60 or so innings that Zumaya could have taken. If the Twins don't pitch much better than last year, they can't win the division. And if they can't win the division, why not blow it up and rebuild for 2013?

I just read the news about Joel Zumaya. I suppose none of us should be surprised Zumaya could be injured. Some will use this as an opportunity to say that the twins should have signed more help for the bullpen. While that may be true, I think it ignores the bigger picture. The Twins need to improve their teaching staff as a whole and two thirds of the innings of a pitching staff come from starters. Now I've heard it said that the Twins have five number four starters. I think this is a little bit too simple of an assessment. Baker, Liriano, and Pavano are all good pitchers. Of course there are flaws in each one. But any team in the nation would be happy to sign them to their rotation were the Twins to cut them today. The two others in the rotation, Blackburn and (presumably) Marquis, are a different story. The aren't expected to be good pitchers, and they don't show the potential to get much better. If the Twins were serious about contending this year, they should have signed or traded for a legitimate middle-of-the-rotation starter to take 180-220 innings, all of which are by definition winnable or losable games, since they are after all starting a tied game. That is a much bigger concern than replacing the 60 or so innings that Zumaya could have taken. If the Twins don't pitch much better than last year, they can't win the division. And if they can't win the division, why not blow it up and rebuild for 2013?