John Bonnes

[ATTACH=CONFIG]4281[/ATTACH]Who IS This Guy? Jonathan Gray is a right-handed college starting pitcher who has rocketed up the draft charts becoming one of the two most coveted picks in the draft. Coming into the college season he was a decent but not remarkable prospect, but that was before posting 127 strikeouts (in 110 IP), a 9-2 record and a 1.55 ERA (pre NCAA tournament). It was also before he unveiled improvements on a couple of standout pitches. The first is an “80” fastball that top three digits on occasion, like it did last week (102 mph), striking out the last batter of a 129-pitch complete game in the NCAA regionals. Coming into the year, he had never shown that kind of velocity, but this year he worked between 94 and 97 all season. He also has shows a “plus” slider that has also improved due to a tweak in the grip (running the middle finger down the right side of the horseshoe) that has increased the velocity and has tightened the break. He has also shown a curveball and changeup, though both would need to be further developed. Who Could He Be? He’s on track to be a #1 pitcher. But it’s been a short track. Gray might have the most upside of any pitcher in the draft, or at the very least the most of any of the college pitchers. Compared to the other top name, Mark Appel, Gray might have the higher ceiling but has less history on which to base that prediction. How Soon Could He Be Playing In Target Field? The path the Twins took with Matt Garza, another first round pick (albeit 25th overall) provides a clue. Garza was fast-tracked through the system due to his success and the state of the Twins starting rotation. The best guess is… 2013 – Twins have him pitch in rookie league and maybe low A but are careful about piling much wear and tear on his arm (especially if his Oklahoma coach keeps throwing him out there for 129-pitch outings.) 2014 – High A and hopefully AA. 2015 – AA or AAA with a possible late season call-up. If The Twins Draft This Guy, They Messed Up Because… The most obvious paradigm in which to criticize this pick would be to say that they got carried away with a player whose value was built on one-year’s performance and improvement. But provided he signs, it would be hard to legitimately criticize, even if he doesn’t make it to the majors for some unforeseen reason. Knowing what we know, he’s the complete package and fits an area of extreme need in the organization. If The Twins Draft This Guy, They Nailed It Because… Well, they probably got lucky, because Gray wasn’t supposed to be available at #4 for most of the past two months. However, in Keith Law’s latest mock draft, he had Gray falling into their laps – and then the Twins passed on him for high school pitching prospect Kohl Stewart. Though the Twins are clearly enamored with Stewart, Gray has similar (if not more) upside without the risks associated of drafting a high school pitcher. Oh – and he’s likely to arrive in the majors sooner. More than any other player in the draft, Gray might be the perfect choice for the Twins. --- Check out the other Twins Daily MLB Draft Player Profiles or follow the latest national mock drafts in our forum: Monday, May 20-- Sean Manaea, SP Tuesday, May 21-- Austin Meadows, OF Wednesday, May 22-- Trey Ball, OF Thursday, May 23-- Ryan Stanek, RHP Friday, May 24-- Clint Frazier, OF Tuesday, May 28-- Reese McGuire, C Wednesday, May 29—Braden Shipley, RHP Thursday, May 30 -- Kohl Stewart, RHP Friday, May 31 – Kris Bryant, 3B/1B For MLB Draft Day Coverage, make sure you follow @TwinsDaily on Twitter!

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=1821-Gleeman-and-the-Geek-Ep-96-Don-t-Call-It-A-Comeback-and-Darft-Talk

In the #1 Minnesota Twins podcast, Aaron and John talk about the Twins resurgence and other reasons for optimism, the latest development in the Twins #4 overall pick in the 2013 MLB Draft, John's musical instrument of choice, whether Pedro Florimon is for real, answer questions from readers, wonder what moves the Twins might make, discuss Mike Pelfrey's future, the 2015 lineup and Aaron's feature in the Star-Tribune. Here are: the podcasts the rss feed if you want to subscribe and the podcast on iTunes. Or, just click on the link below:

In the #1 Minnesota Twins podcast, Aaron and John talk about the Twins resurgence and other reasons for optimism, the latest development in the Twins #4 overall pick in the 2013 MLB Draft, John's musical instrument of choice, whether Pedro Florimon is for real, answer questions from readers, wonder what moves the Twins might make, discuss Mike Pelfrey's future, the 2015 lineup and Aaron's feature in the Star-Tribune. Here are: the podcasts the rss feed if you want to subscribe and the podcast on iTunes. Or, just click on the link below:

The number of subtexts rolling through this thread are making me dizzy. I feel like this is the culmination of at least a half dozen previous conversations and paradigms which I don't know the history of. Not that I particularly care. If the point is that a)Correia is fast becoming a favorite of Gardy and the organization and b)that will all end in tears, I'd say a)yes and that's appropriate and probably, but there you have it. But I think I would have said both before the quote. But I'll add this which I think we should remember about trying to take insight from one very generic Postgame quote: our interpretation likely says a lot more about us than about Gardy.

In his mock draft yesterday (http://twinsdaily.com/twins-minor-league-talk/6452-2013-draft-mocks-7.html#post118648) Keith Law had Jonathan Gray, stud college pitching prospect, falling to the Twins, but the Twins passed on him to draft Kohl Stewart, stud high school pitching prospect. Would you? Again, I'm sorry that you need to register with Twins Daily to vote on these. I wish you didn't. But if you register, you won't be sorry.

Glad my nagging had an effect. :-)

I thnk that's accurate. But that's a pretty good thing oth a #4 pick, because they don't come along real often. (Though it might next year.)

The studies I've read (and they go back some time, like to Bill James) concluded that the difference between an absolutely optimal lineup (which is basically putting the batters 1-9 by descending OBP) and the worst (the exact opposite lineup) is about 60 runs per year. It also concludes that if you chose a lineup at random - like Billy Martin would do if his team was in a slump (the players would draw their lineup position from a hat) - it's about 30 runs per year. The lineup folks are advocating - Mauer batting second with the rest of the linuep as is - isn't optimal though it's close because the guys or more or less in the right order, so we're giving up a few runs there. The lineup with Dozier batting #2 is still very close to optimal - it's got most of the guys in the right order, with one extra guy in the wrong order. So how close to that desired lineup are we talking? Five runs? Three runs? Seven runs? And over the course of a season, that small of a difference is awfully close to nonsense. No sabrmetrician would say he can realistically predict the number of runs a team will score within that kind of margin for error. (He/she certainly wouldn't bet that he/she could). And that kind of difference could be made up by any number of ways. Maybe Mauer is more motivated when he's a #3 hitter. Mabye Dozier is more patient as a #2. Or maybe he prepares a little differently when he knows he's batting at the beginning of the game. Or maybe they come up in a little better way in high-leverage situations. Or maybe a butterly flaps its wings in China. The amount of runs is so small as to be insignificant. Virtually every study lays out two rules for lineup effect: 1) Within reason, it really doesn't matter. 2) To what extent it does matter, trust OBP. But I think because there are two rules, they are perceived as having equal weight. They don't. #1 is 96% of what we need to know. #2 is there mostly to make us feel better and better define "Within reason." This is why I get more worked up about people who get worked up about lineup construction than I do about lineup construction. Gardenhire is well "within reason" and it doesn't matter where the hell Dozier bats.

Sorry I didn't see this earlier. For the record, we actively encourage this at Twins Daily. We want readers to find independent bloggers and we want our readers to be able to find as much content as possible. By all means - post links to your blogs silly in the threads. For that matter, if corporate media wants to post their links in the threads, we would encourage that, too. We would like to ourselves, but have trouble keeping up.

I'll add that I think Law's logic for the Astros going with Moran seems rock solid: It seems odd, but the way this draft works with slots, etc, really seems to encourage the top teams to consider going for a player much less than slots like Houston did last year and might do this year. At least unless there is a clear-cut star like Harper or Strassburg. Boy, would this be good news for the Twins. I'd be doing backflips. And I'm WAY too big to do backflips.

I'm sorry, but if Gray is available, there is no way they take Stewart. Howeer, it is good to hear that the Twins are comfortable with Stewart's price tag. BTW, is anyone else surprised that the Rockies seem fixated on adding a hitter if Appel or Gray are on the board when they pick? They could use pitching as much as anyone, I think.

Something happens in the top three such that the pitchers Appel and Gray are taken BUT Kris Bryant (today's profiled player) is still on the board. With the 4th pick. You have the same options as in yesterday's poll, but now you can add Bryant, who is widely considered the best (remaining) player available, but who is a hitter. Do you choose: a. Kris Bryant b. Kohl Stewart, RHP with the most upside but most risk AND he won't be arriving to majors until 2017 most likely c. a college pitcher like Stanek, Shipley, Manaea, etc. - less risk, less upside, but a probably arrives by at least a year or two before Stewart. d. Reese McGuire and use the $1.3M on other picks Again, I'll love your votes (which I'll try to open up to non-members) but I'd really like your comments. Ugh. There is no option to open this up to non-members. Please register with Twins Daily to vote on the poll.

I voted Stewart. I'm a BPA guy, and to me, BPA = Stewart. But that might not be the case for the 2nd poll that I'm putting up today....

So what did you pick in the poll?

Just checked out Berrios' stats in Cedar Rapids. I know he's young and started late and only has six starts, but wow. Do people who are close than me to ths think he could have a shot at Ft. Myers this year?

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=1811-Twins-8-Brewers-6-and-Stealing-Bases

[ATTACH=CONFIG]4250[/ATTACH]The Minnesota Twins won last night, swiping (and sweeping) the season series from the Milwaukee Brewers. The victory raised their record to 23-28 which translates to a 73 win pace over the course of a 162-game season. But I want to talk about some different swiping that happened, or more accurately, did not happen. In the bottom of the sixth inning, Aaron Hicks was caught trying to steal second base. What struck me as strange at the time was that there were runners on the corners and one out. It seemed like a stupid decision to attempt that at the time, as it can short-circuit a good scoring opportunity. However, one always looks stupid when one is caught. So I wondered, was it as risky as it seemed? It turns out – I studied this exact situation last year on 5/11, only it was Denard Span that was thrown out. Here’s how that went: Tonight, though, I want to take it a step further. How does it compare to other situations in which one might try to steal a base? There are 12 situations where a runner might try to steal a base without coordination with the other runner. Here they are: Runner on 1st, 0 outs Runner on 1st, one out Runner on 1st, 2 outs Runner on 2nd, 0 outs Runner on 2nd, 1 out Runner on 2nd, 2 outs Runners on corners, 0 out Runners on the corners, 1 out Runners on corners, 2 outs Runners on 1st and 2nd, trying to steal 3rd, 0 outs Runners on 1st and 2nd, trying to steal 3rd, 1 out Runners on 1st and 2nd, trying to steal 3rd, 2 outs And here they are again, ranked by just how risky they are. The percentage indicates how often one needs to succeed for it to be a good decision. 92.51% - Runners on 1st and 2nd, trying to steal 3rd, 2 outs 91.10% - Runner on 2nd, 2 outs 79.67% - Runner on 2nd, 0 outs 77.69% - Runners on 1st and 2nd, trying to steal 3rd, 0 outs 77.25% - Runners on 1st and 2nd, trying to steal 3rd, 1 out 75.31% - Runner on 2nd, 1 out 74.74% - Runners on corners, 2 outs 71.39% - Runners on the corners, 1 out 70.73% - Runners on corners, 0 out 65.20% - Runner on 1st, 0 outs 63.41% - Runner on 1st, one out 60.06% - Runner on 1st, 2 outs So it wasn’t patently stupid, like trying to steal 3rd when you’re already in scoring position. But it was the 2nd riskiest situation in which to try and steal 2nd base. The only thing that would have been worse was if it could have ended the inning.

I'd like to apologize for setting up the poll so that only registered members can vote. I assume that is a default flag that I didn't know was turned on. For future polls, we'll try and turn that off. By the way, great comments.

Let's assume that the first three picks are Appel, Gray and Bryant (as seems likely). Let's also assume that Kohl Stewart will sign at slot, but probably not below. However, Reese McGuire will sign for less than slot - say #7 money, which would save $1.3M for future draft picks. Who do you choose: a. Kohl Stewart, RHP with the most upside but most risk AND he won't be arriving to majors until 2017 most likely b. a college pitcher like Stanek, Shipley, Manaea, etc. - less risk, less upside, but a probably arrives by 2015. c. Reese McGuire and use the $1.3M on other picks? I'll add a poll, but I'll be more interested in your comments.

The Strib's Phil Miller takes on the topic of Justin Morneau's anemic home run numbers head on today, including talking to Morneau and his approach: It doesn't sound like Morneau has tried to change his approach - he just isn't hitting the dingers right now. Twins notes: RBI, but not HRs, for Morneau | StarTribune.com