nytwinsfan

There are plenty of ways to go about trying to fix the Twins team but some patience might be required as the club waits for some younger pieces to work their way through the minor leagues. The Twins Daily crew put out some solid information in the 2015 Offseason Handbook. One of the best parts to read about this document is the blueprint plans put together by the writers.
 
There are plenty of options for the Twins but here is how I would go about trying to fix the team. Some of these ideas will happen and some won't but that's what makes this fun.
 
Starting Line-Up
C- Kurt Suzuki- $6 million
1B- Joe Mauer- $23 million
2B- Brian Dozier- $1 million
3B- Trevor Plouffe- $5 million
SS- Danny Santana- $0.5 million
LF- Colby Rasmus- $12 million
CF- Aaron Hicks- $0.5 million
RF- Oswaldo Arcia- $0.5 million
DH- Kennys Vargas- $0.5 million
 
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$49.0 million committed to nine hitters
 
Breakdown: Colby Rasmus is the only free agent acquisition that I have the Twins adding this off-season. He's young at only 28-years old and he could regain some value by signing a one-year, $12 million deal. This would set him up to hit the free agent market again before his age 29 season. The Twins could use him in a corner outfield spot and have him be a center field fill-in. Aaron Hicks earns the Opening Day starting job for the third straight season. Hopefully Paul Molitor can get Hicks back on the right track to being an everyday player in Minnesota. If things go right, Miguel Sano could be up by the middle of the season but this could be a line-up that scores a decent amount of runs after finishing fifth in the AL in runs scored a year ago.
 
Bench
C- Josmil Pinto- $0.5 million
IF- Eduardo Escobar- $2.0 million
1B/OF- Chris Colabello- $0.5 million
OF-Jordan Schafer- $1.5 million
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$4.5 million committed to four bench positions
 
Breakdown: Eduardo Escobar proved to be a very valuable asset but I believe his long-term role with the club will be as more of a utility infielder. Jordan Schafer will complement the other outfielders nicely. Josmil Pinto will get some opportunities to catch especially with how much Kurt Suzuki got beat-up last season. Chris Colabello will get one more opportunity to stick on the big league roster but he will be one of the last men to make the 25-man squad.
 
Starting Pitching
1. Phil Hughes- $8 million
2. Ricky Nolasco- $12 million
3. Kyle Gibson- $0.5 million
4. Alex Meyer- $0.5 million
5. Justin Masterson- $10 million
-------------------------------------------------
$31.0 million committed to starting rotation
 
Breakdown: The top three spots in the rotation are likely locked into place. These leaves the fourth and fifth spots in the rotation up for grabs. I think the Twins will actually go with Trevor May in the number four spot but I would much rather throw Alex Meyer out there every fifth day. This would also give May the opportunity to pitch out of the bullpen which I think will be his eventual resting spot. Minnesota is going to spend some money on a free agent starter and I think Justin Masterson is the right guy. He's coming off a tough year but he could bounce back nicely in the friendly confines of Target Field. Fingers are crossed that he could be this year's version of Phil Hughes and a one-year, $10 million contract is easy enough to swallow for a team with some wiggle room.
 
Bullpen
Righties: Casey Fien, Michael Tonkin, Trevor May, Mike Pelfrey- $8 million
Lefties: Caleb Thielbar, Tommy Milone- $4 million
Closer: Glen Perkins- $4 million
-------------------------------------------------
$16 million committed to seven relievers
 
Breakdown: This is quite a conglomeration of players. I hate having Mike Pelfrey on this team coming out of spring training but the Twins are going to eat his salary at the beginning of the year even if that's what I would do. As I said in the starting pitcher section, May gets moved to the bullpen where he can continue to develop and the Twins can use him in a variety of roles. I don't think the Twins are ready to let Tommy Milone loose after acquiring him at the end of last season. He will get arbitration as a Super 2 player and his salary will be around $3.5 million. Two names you will likely see gone from this list are Brian Duensing and Anthony Swarzak. Duensing is getting too expensive for what his role is with the team and Swarzak gets pushed out by the likes of Milone and Pelfrey.
 
Minnesota Twins 2015 Checkbook
Starting Line-Up: $49.0 million
Bench Players: $4.5 million
Starting Pitching: $31.0 million
Bullpen: $16 million
-------------------------------------------------
$100.5 million committed to Opening Day 25-man roster
 
 
What are your thoughts on this roster? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.
 
For more from Cody Christie make sure to follow him on Twitter @NoDakTwinsFan and to read his other work at http://www.NoDakTwinsFan.com

At the All-Star break, the Twins were in decent shape, just 6 games under .500 and on pace to finish with a win total in the mid-70s that would have demonstrated clear progress in their rebuilding efforts. But they faltered out of the gate in the 2nd half, dropping 9 of 13 to finish July (the first 10 of which were at home). Now 11 under .500 and 11 games out of 1st place, it was time to sell the veterans and turn to youth. Out with Kendrys Morales, Josh Willingham, Kevin Correia and Matt Guerrier, in with Kennys Vargas, Jordan Schafer, Trevor May, and Ryan Pressly.
 
The newly reconstituted roster quickly descended into the most wretched stretch of the season, going 14-27 from the beginning of August through mid-September, outraging the fanbase, and promptly costing Gardy his job at season’s end. But I’m OK with beginning 2015 with about 80% of the players who were on the field for those last 2 months, and you should be, too! Here’s why:
 
The Offense was better
 
After a surprisingly high-scoring April (fueled by a sky-high OBP) the pendulum swung the other way in May. The average of those 2 months corresponded pretty well with the .690-ish team OPS the Twins put up in June & July. Through the first 2/3 of the season, the offense averaged a tick over 4 R/G. But in the final 55 games, they exploded for 280 R, increasing the per-game average by over a run. Over a full season, 90% of that scoring rate would have produced the #4 offense in baseball. And 90% of the extremely good BABIP the Twins put up over those final 2 months would be more or less the league average.
 
There will certainly be regression from some players (most notable Santana). But there were several positions that provided below average production in the final months, too. Not only did Suzuki’s All-Star 1st half not carry over, but his second half results were beneath his modest career averages. Mauer, though much better than he was in the spring, was still well short of his career average OPS of .860 or so. Dozier continued to get on base, but didn’t sustain the HR and SB pace he established over the early part of the season. (That the baserunners accumulated nearly as many SB (49) in 68 2nd half games as they did in 94 1st half games (50) with little contribution from Dozier is an indication of how much more baserunning can be a weapon for the Twins next year.)
 
All told, when I look at the rates the hitters put up in August & September, I’d expect a lot less (upwards of .100 OPS) from Santana, a bit less from Plouffe, Schafer, & Escobar, about the same from Arcia & Vargas, a bit more from Dozier & Hicks, and a quite a bit more (upwards of .050 OPS) from Mauer & the catchers (especially with Pinto getting the PAs that were going to Fryer). A repeat of 2014’s 714 RS seems like a pretty safe floor for this offense.
 
The Starting Pitching was better
 
Seriously:
 
1st Half: 5.8 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 8.7% HR/FB, .319 BABIP, 4.86 ERA, 4.21 xFIP
2nd Half: 7.2 K/9, 2.4 BB/9 9.8% HR/FB, .333 BABIP, 5.35 ERA, 3.89 xFIP
 
And the prospects for 2015 are even better than that. 25 rather horrendous 2nd half starts were made by pitchers who will not be starting games for the Twins next year: Kevin Correia (4 GS, 4.79 xFIP), Anthony Swarzak (4, 4.86), Yohan Pino (6, 4.02 – he deserved better), Kris Johnson (1, 4.57), Logan Darnell (4, 3.38 – but so many HRs), weirdly awful Tommy Milone (5, 5.27) and MLB debut Trevor May (1, 16.10(!)). It’s possible that Darnell could see some spot starts next year, though I’d expect him to be well down the depth chart. Whatever was going on with Milone in August, it was unprecedented in nearly 80 prior career GS. Should he be asked to start in 2015 I’d expect to see that guy (4.22 xFIP) rather than the doppelganger who made such a poor 1st impression in MN.
 
The Twins quietly finished the season with an effective front 4: Phil Hughes (13, 3.20), Kyle Gibson (13, 3.76), Ricky Nolasco (9, 3.71) and not-making-his-MLB-debut May (8, 3.77). Each of those xFIPs was league average or better, and Hughes can afford a ton of regression in his walk rate before he would fall below that standard. Gibson’s growth should be expected of a high-pedigree prospect with 25+ career GS under his belt, and post-DL Nolasco was essentially the guy they signed to the biggest FA contract in team history.
 
That the starters’ ERA for the most part drastically overshot their xFIP is the result of a complex cocktail whose ingredients include bad luck on balls in play, bad defense, bad pitching with men on base, and bad work from a bullpen that failed to strand inherited runners. Of those factors, the pitching with men on is the only thing they can really control, and should be a matter of focus for them as they prepare for next season.
 
The Bullpen sucked!
 
As I alluded to above, the bullpen didn’t do the starters any favors. They couldn’t strand runners, couldn’t protect leads, couldn’t consistently get the outs they were brought in to get. They were last in the Majors in 2nd half K/9 by a large margin, and as a group were below replacement level. I believe a league average relief squad would have netted the Twins at least 5 additional wins in 2014, and lessened a lot of the hysteria related to 4 straight 90+ loss seasons.
 
So why am I OK with that performance? Because it’s a failure that is very unlikely to be repeated. Relievers are the most fungible asset in baseball, as demonstrated by the Twins scooping up Casey Fien and Jared Burton off the scrap heap before the 2012 season. Even elite FA relievers with extensive track records cost much less per season and demand shorter-term contracts than starters and position players. The Twins have already declined Burton’s services for 2015, and I expect them to pass on Brian Duensing and Anthony Swarzak, too. That trio combined to allow 21 inherited runners to score just in the awful ¼ season from August 1st to mid-September. Replacing them with average or better relievers will make a huge difference.
 
Some of those replacements might already be under team control. AAA Rochester’s bullpen was excellent all season. Michael Tonkin and Aaron Thompson were pretty effective in their September call-ups, and Lester Oliveros completed the season with 5 straight scoreless appearances totaling 5.2 IP, 5 K, 1 H and 1 BB. And, close behind them, the upper minors are loaded with high-velocity arms that could find their way onto the team by the 2nd half of 2015: Nick Burdi, Zach Jones, Jake Reed… The days of the Twins bringing up the rear in bullpen K% may already be behind us.
 
Better Luck Next Year
 
The Twins allowed a very poor BABIP for the 2nd consecutive year in 2014, and it will take some improvements to the defense (especially the OF) to get that back into the average range. But that OF defense was similarly bad in both 2013 & 2014, and yet the BABIP was a few points worse last year. All of the negative difference came in the 2nd half, when the pitchers suffered a .328 BABIP despite having 2 of Schafer, Santana and Hicks in the OF most of the time. Certainly, there was some very bad pitching after the All-Star break. There was also a lot of OK to good pitching with some very bad luck.
 
Look back through some of the game logs in which the Twins allowed huge crooked numbers. In many cases those innings were prolonged by one or more IF or bunt hits. I can never fault a pitcher for giving up a hit because he induced a batter to hit a GB too slowly, or in the perfect spot. It’s maddening, but those results are fairly random, and the wheel tends to swing back the other way as time goes on. The group we saw in August & September, given average luck on their balls in play, might have erased their 17 run deficit and finished with an even or better run differential over those 2 months.
 
And there’s one other wild swing of luck we need to consider – when the runs were scored. Over the 1st 4 months of the season, the Twins’ record corresponded perfectly with their Pythagorean record – the estimated winning % derived from the total scores of their games. The total scores they produced after the trade deadline should have been good for a 26-29 record, but instead came up well short at 22-33. Isolate it further by separating the final 14 games of the season and you find that the Twins’ entire shortfall in expected wins occurred within that disastrous 41-game stretch from August 1st-September 13th.
 
The most obvious place this shows up is in games decided by 1 run. Within this late-summer stretch, the Twins were 1-8 in 1-run games. In the other ¾ of the season, they were 20-16. Had they continued to win those closest games at the same rate as they had been doing, they would have gone 5-4 in those 9 games. There’s your 4 extra wins. Losing very close games is not an unexpected byproduct of having everybody in the bullpen fail at the same time.
 
Focus on the Finish
 
A lot of people had understandably stopped paying attention to the Twins by mid-September, when things finally stabilized. The offense continued to score about 5 R/G. The pitching - excepting 13 dreadful spot start IP from Swarzak – put up a 3.70 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. Half of those 14 games came against a very productive Tigers lineup that was fighting for playoff position.
 
We saw that some of these guys can be pretty good. May had 2 quality starts and a 20/3 K/BB ratio. Nolasco also went 2/3 in quality starts with a 16/4 K/BB ratio. Vargas broke out of his early-September slump by re-adding walks to his game – 8 BB in the final week, where he’d had just 4 in the previous 7! Dozier rediscovered his power, Mauer got his average back over .300.
 
For me, much of the fans’ sour impression of the Twins comes from the terrible results of that awful late-summer run. There was plenty of bad baseball there, to be sure. There was also a lot of absurdly bad luck, and several performances that are unlikely to be repeated – whether because of changing personnel, better health, or the maturation of young players. When you think about what the Twins need to do to improve in 2015, remember those caveats, and build from the final days of September instead of the first days of August.

There are a few items on the Twins off-season checklist. Starting pitching seems to be the Twins biggest priority but the club also has a hole to fill in the outfield. The club likely won't be pushing for any of the big names on the outfield free agent list but that doesn't mean the club couldn't look to add a veteran free agent for this role.
 
Reports came out at the beginning of this week that the Twins have expressed interest in signing free agent outfielder Torii Hunter. It seems that Hunter's preference would be to return to the Tigers or another squad that will be in contention next season. If none of those teams make him a decent offer, he could be more willing to finish his career back where he started in Minnesota.
 
Hunter's offensive skills have aged fairly well. Over the last three seasons in Detroit and Los Angeles, he's hit .301/.339/.455 while averaging 17 home runs, 31 doubles, and 86 RBI. While his offense has continued to be strong, his defense in right field took a turn for the worst last season. He's now considered below average in a corner outfield which is a far cry from the Gold Glove caliber defense he played in Minnesota.
 
It doesn't seem likely for the Twins, a team that has lost at least 92 games in the last four seasons, to be in contention in 2015. Hunter turned 39-years old in July which means he will be 40 after next year's All-Star break. What benefits would there be from having a 19-year veteran on next year's Twins roster?
 
The Twins are in a rebuilding mode and Hunter's presence on next year's roster would mean lost at-bats for other younger player the Twins could be trialing at the big league level. Hunter would need time in the outfield and at DH which could mean fewer at-bats for the likes of Oswaldo Arcia, Kennys Vargas, and Josmil Pinto. These younger players need to be in the line-up everyday and not fighting for at-bats with an aging veteran.
 
Hunter's leadership would be a welcome addition to the clubhouse especially under first year manager Paul Molitor. However other players on the Twins roster like Brian Dozier and Glen Perkins have taken on leadership roles over the last couple seasons. The addition of another voice in the clubhouse might be too many voices to listen to for the younger Twins team.
 
During the beginning of last season, the Twins brought in a variety of different players from their division title years to fight for spots on the roster. Jason Kubel, Matt Guerrier, and Jason Bartlett all made the team out of spring training but none of them made a significant impact during the season. They would all be jettison before the middle of June. Hunter has played better than those players but the Twins don't exactly have a positive track record in bringing in former players.
 
This team might be taking some bumps and bruises in the early part of the season with a new manager and a younger roster. That's fine because the overall goal is to get back to playing winning baseball. Gaining experience for the young core of talent is what is going to get this team back on the right track.
 
 
Hunter will not be part of the next winning team in Minnesota so let's hope the organization doesn't bring him back for a reunion tour.
 
For more from Cody Christie make sure to follow him on Twitter @NoDakTwinsFan and to read his other work at http://www.NoDakTwinsFan.com

The end of the third week in the Arizona Fall League marks the halfway point of the season, and at this juncture the Salt River Rafters, for whom the Twins prospects play, have clearly been the class of the League. They lead the East Division with a 12-4-1 record and are the only team with double-digit wins.
 
In week 3, Taylor Rogers was again the only Twins representative who didn’t see action.
 
Did Eddie Rosario continue to hit? Did Byron Buxton turn it around? Did Zack Jones and Jake Reed continue to mow down hitters?
 
Read on to find out!
 
 
Byron Buxton – 4 games, 6-18 (.333), 2B, 3 R’s, 3 RBI, 1 BB, 4 K’s, 3 SB’s (4).
 
Buxton played in four games this week, including another appearance in RF.
 
His big game of the week came on Friday, when he went 3-5 with a double, scored two runs, drove in two more, and stole two bases. It was the second game in a row he collected multiple hits after going 2-5 the day before.
 
It’s a good sign to see all of his tools back on display, and Buxton is happy to be moving forward after his injury-wrecked 2014 season.
 
Buxton raised his average from .229 to .264 during the week.
 
 
Eddie Rosario – 4 games, 6-13 (.462), 2 R’s, 6 RBI, 2 BB, 1 K, 3 SB (9).
 
Rosario continued to bat third in the Rafters lineup this week, and continued to rack up hits.
 
He currently is second in the league in batting average (.429) and total hits (21), fourth in RBI’s (11), and second in stolen bases (9).
 
He had at least one hit in all four games during the week and collected multiple hits twice. In Tuesday’s 5-0 Rafters win, he was 2-2 with two RBI sac fly’s in four plate appearances.
 
He was 2-4 with three RBI in his next game on Thursday, where he also stole two more bases.
 
Of major note in reference to Rosario, is the fact he has hit safely in all ten games he has played in the AFL, and seems to like the pace of play created by the 20-second pitch clock.
 
 
Max Kepler – 3 games, 5-12 (.417), 2 R, 2 2B’s, 3B, RBI, 1 BB’s, 4 K’s, SB (3).
 
Kepler saw action in three games during the week, and made the most of his opportunities as he went 2-4 on Tuesday, 2-5 with a double and triple on Wednesday, and 1-3 with a double, walk, and RBI on Thursday.
 
His triple in Wednesday’s 9-3 victory sparked a four run second inning for the Rafters.
 
He raised his average to .290 in league play, with an on-base percentage of .405.
 
 
Taylor Rogers – Did not play.
 
Rogers took a line drive to his shoulder in his only start for the Rafters in week 1, and has not pitched since.
 
 
Jason Adam – 1 game, 1 IP, 0 R’s, 1 H’s, 0 BB, 1 K. 0.00 ERA.
 
Adam finally made his first scoreless appearance in Friday’s 8-1 win, allowing just a single in the sixth inning. The runner moved to second on a passed ball, but he finished the inning with a strikeout and picked up his first hold.
 
 
Zack Jones – 2 games, 1.1 IP, 0 ER, 1 H’s, 3 BB, 0 K, 2 Holds. 0.00 ERA.
 
Zack Jones made appearances in the wins on Monday and Thursday, picking up a hold in both contests.
 
In Monday’s win, he gave a double but retired the three other batters he faced.
 
In Friday’s win, he lost his control in the seventh inning, throwing just eight of twenty-one pitches for strikes while walking three to load the bases. He recorded just one out, but still picked up a hold as Kaleb Fleck from the Diamondbacks organization retired the next two batters.
 
 
Jake Reed – 2 games, 2 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 0 BB, 0 K’s, 2 Holds. 0.00 ERA.
 
Reed also pitched in the same games as Jones, pitching the inning before him in each contest. He was extremely efficient, throwing twenty of twenty-four pitches for strikes, while allowing just one hit in his two innings. He also recorded two holds.
 
Of note from Jones and Reed, is neither hurler recorded an out with a strikeout on the week.
 
 
Notes
 
-Twins hitters combined to bat .395 with 3 2B’s, 1 3B, 7 R’s, 10 RBI, 4 BB’s, 9 K’s, and 7 SB during the week.
-Twins pitchers compiled a 0.00 ERA in 4.1 IP, allowing 0 R’s on 3 H’s and 3 BB’s, while striking out 1 on the week.