BigTrane

Albers showed great potential in his first 2 starts, and in start #3, the league figured him out. What he needs to do is learn to make adjustments on the fly if he is to be successful. If he really is that smart- and with the right coaching- then maybe he can learn to do that. If so, he could be a potential "crafty lefty" in the making. The feel-good story aside, it's worth noting that Fangraphs projects him as a 1 WAR and Deduno .4; basically the same ERA, but with the edge in K/9 and BB/9 for Albers. Sample size is a huge problem here, but with the wide-open competition for the 5-spot, it seems silly to write him off out of hand. We don't know where Deduno stands right now injury/rehab-wise, but we'll find out soon. Maybe Albers' path to #5 starts in Rochester. We do know that there will be a scrum for the fifth spot, injuries will take place, and so will callups... all the usual unknowables. Given all this, I see the Albers question as being one of quickly he can adjust/mature/take instruction. Maybe all he needs is a mentor to make the jump.

Completely agree, and feel very lucky to have such depth w/coverage of the farm system. Crikket's stuff is outstanding & is a great complement/ enhancement to TD's stuff about the big club, for example. Of course, the Twins future will depend largely on players working their way through the system, so the need for coverage is there. Ideally, it would be great to have someone dedicated to each of the farm club teams so that the coverage is comprehensive, system-wide. Keep up the good work!

Thanks for talking bout Int'l ball- well done, keep it up.

Totally agree. Where's the thread about "Twins meds first underplay, only to reverse & blow diagnoses"? Going forward, I wouldn't mind seeing a "DL Tracker" thread for the coming season. Surely there has to be a fan here who is an MD or otherwise qualified med. prof. to offer informed opinions. Obviously, without an in-person exam, such a poster/admin could only offer an "outside opinion". Caveat granted. This should be an area of interest, an there's the potential for stats to enter in. For many years now, I've had the suspicion that the Twins docs consistently lowball on severity of injury, but I'd love to see numbers & comps w/other teams' med staffs. Otherwise, we're just left guessing on Sano and this type of injury report. Same old, same old.

Well, I respectfully disagree that this should be #1. My sense of the forums' 'heat maps' if you will, is that it's a close call between "what is up with Terry Ryan" and "WTF with resigning Pelfrey". I'll go with TR. Gardy is what he is, but gets the job done- given what he's got to work with. Bankable, and the Twins love that. He'll do his best with his next crew, and no doubt, he'll be open to criticism- who isn't? That leads me to TR. Getting to the bottom of TR's sudden shape-shift has major implications for the club- of course- but I don't think we've figured that out yet. Gardy is on a short leash- obvious. TR's seeming turn about? Does anybody have a quick, clean answer for that? This puzzle is looming over us through the next season- and is why this story line should be #1. It's the future of the org., not just the team on the field. As for Gardy, signing Molly is the writing on the wall. If the team posts sub-par results this season, then he's done, but has "face" and can turn the keys over to Molly and feel good about it. Nice photo-op, and thank you very much. Feel-good moment, grab a watch on your way out. TR- for all his scouting merits- seems to have been christened in a Griffith-type mentality: cheap is the only way. Dumpster-diver. He's got a good track record, in some respects (i.e. Nathan) but this where the Pelfrey deal strikes the wrong chord with a lot of people. Again, the unsolved mystery of this off season if why TR turned about-face on FAs. That's why this should be #1. Gardy? Twins way- give him a nice exit. Classy.

We're all hoping that Sano mashes out of the gate (getting over his current elbow problems). That makes a decision easy. My worry is that with the traditional mindset of this org., you wind up with a stupidly sticky situation where (realistically) Sano has some adjustments to make , while Plouffe (briefly) focuses and produces, blocking Sano (in retrospect, but conservatively) for far too long.

Don't get me wrong on Sano.... optimism with him is totally justified. Problem is, what if Plouffe looks semi-OK at the plate to start, and so Twins then decide to sit on Sano 'till August? We're dealing with a very conservative club here. The question is all about when he comes up, and how the club makes that decision. I question MGMT.

I saw Albers (and Dozier) as rays of light late in the season after what you rightly call an 'avalanche' of disappointment. Simply put, there was no truly competitive/coherent rotation in place, and that pressure just cascaded through the system, from Pelfrey to Gibson and beyond. Nolasco and Hughes stand to be serviceable or better, they buy breathing room for guys who need to spell in the minors (looking at you, Gilmartin). If they over-perform, then great. If we go on to add another starter (Tanaka? unlikely. Arroyo? Possible. Johan? MiLB deal = lo/no risk) then we have a total makeover and gain flexibility in trades going forward.

Good point on Mauer, though I would go further. @ 1B, he's likely to make more starts & get more ABs than behind the dish the last couple seasons, bringing along his OBP. Sure, he doesn't fit the trad. 1B mold, but if Suzuki has a decent OBP & is on base with Mauer batting behind him, he could pick up some extra RBIs. Regardless, he'll be on base plenty. Will be interesting to compare his '14 numbers with post-concussion Morneau, though... Net benefit. No reason to believe Mauer won't continue to be a hit machine, and to try and pigeon-hole him into a slugging 1B slot makes no sense. Mauer will produce just fine- probably better, and the Twins' overall fate won't hang on his SLG.

Yep, saw this and agree it's a best case/all reasonable expectations for all needed rebounds to happen at the same time kind of scenario. Lightning in a bottle, anyone? Still, the persistent rumors of Twins pursuing Arroyo, Tanaka, and even Johan begs the question: if we're really not done yet signing SP's, then what's the plan? If we wind up with either a #1-2 type (Tanaka) or solid innings-eater #3 (Arroyo) or a rebounding Johan (the ultimate lightning in a bottle) then what effect does that have on the rest of the SP candidates we've been assuming for #4 and #5 spots? Turns 'em into trading chips. Is that the logic? Also, is anyone working on a GM Psychoanalysis metric here?

Yep, saw this and agree it's a best case/all reasonable expectations for all needed rebounds to happen at the same time kind of scenario. Lightning in a bottle, anyone? Still, given the persistent rumors of Twins pursuing Arroyo, Tanaka, and even Johan begs the question: if we're really not done yet signing SP's, then what's the plan? If we wind up with either a #1-2 type (Tanaka) or solid innings-eater #3 (Arroyo) or a rebounding Johan (the ultimate lightning in a bottle) then what effect does that have on the rest of the SP candidates we've been assuming for #4 and #5 spots? Turns 'em into trading chips. Is that the logic? Also, is anyone working on a GM Psychoanalysis metric here?

Yeah, saw that and just had to scratch my head, especially when the next thing I read was a very optimistic analysis by Christina Kahrl: http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/43222/could-twins-be-the-surprise-team-of-2014 Not so sure I would go that far... but it is credibly written, at least. I'm willing to give credit for the moves made so far as a step in the right direction. Pelfrey is a bone of contention for many, seemingly a 'return to form' for TR. That just makes reports that TR is still in on Arroyo and even in the mix on Tanaka all the harder to square. Feels like another move or two might be possible, so grading now feels premature. Still, the Twins addressed their most glaring needs in a pretty realistic way. That alone merits a positive, and in no way can be seen as 'bottom 5'. What a joke.

I'll admit to being a fan... late '13, there were few rays of light, and Dozier was one of them. His FP is right up there with the best in MLB at his position, and the Twins love the glove. So do I, but I love a good bat, too. He showed some power and turned in some good at-bats during the season. Twins simply do not have *anything* when it comes to clutch hitting (makes me crazy) but there were tantalizing flashes here and there. If he can hook up with Molly and put it together at the plate in '14, then he can write his own ticket.

1) A mea culpa: I "doubled down", opining that Rakuten would not post Tanaka, and I was as wrong as wrong can be. I will punish myself by drinking sorghum-based 'bai jiu' liquor thru Chinese New Year. Clearly, I misread owner Mikitani's dissenting vote against the new agreement. In hindsight, he needs to look forward and make his club an attractive signing option into the future. Smart guy. Me? Not so much. 2) From all I've read from Tanaka himself, he prefers the west coast, for obvious reasons. If that's truly the case, then I rank this way: Dodgers, Mariners, Angels, D-Backs, Giants. Dodgers have the deepest pockets, Mariners less so after Cano, but M's have a track record of NOB-MLB crossover success (as do the Dodgers, of course) = attractive. Angels? Free-spending all right, but something in that org. and lineup just does not compute. Same for Seattle, though LA A of AA is more stretched than M's. D-Backs? Outside chance at best. Yanquis will wine and dine, and try to sell the Big Apple. Flying in the face of common sense, I'll make a second prediction on Tanaka: Dodgers sign him. 3) As for the Twins' interest, to be honest, I am still feeling the after-effects of the Nishioka experience (shudder). In the past few days, many analysts have been weighing in, concluding that he's no Darvish, and that his main asset is his young age (25). So this revelation seems more like a bargaining tactic to get Arroyo. 4) If that's so, then good on TR. If the Twins are serious, then I would welcome it on one front, but would like to see follow-through. At present, even with the recent signings, we are at roughly the same payroll as 2013. Spending to get back to a post-peak par isn't so impressive (especially with all the new money coming in). On the other hand, neither is this year's SP market. 5) Financially, if the goal is $100m again, then it could work, depending on how a deal is structured. However, this feels like just the high-risk FA deal the Twins have always been averse to, TR in particular. We’ll see about those stripes soon enough. Again, if this is a bargaining tactic, then great. If it’s a delaying tactic while looking to make a mid-season pickup, then fine- probably smart considering the roster. While the Twins’ interest is a surprise, I’ll believe it when I see a deal.

Bingo!

Christmas came early for me this year- great signing! With the Doumit move, we save salary, improve on D, and add tons of intangibles. We need a vet who's good with the staff and in the clubhouse. No shortage of turn-around projects in the rotation. Considering the market for catcher, we did great on this deal.

Great post and analysis- especially the point about attracting free agents. It's a given that the Twins and TR need to lay the money down often enough in this off season to convince the FA market that there's a serious turnaround in the works. Heck, we fans need to be convinced, hence this article. We have to work our way up the ladder in a thin market. Those are the breaks for us right now. Hopefully, a larger force (JP) is behind this change in TR- it would make sense, at any rate. If the org. is committed from the top down, and TR is taking orders, then that would be a sea change. A change most fans have been dreaming for... but have been burned enough to be wary/suspicious/unbelieving. Call it conditioning.

Don't want to go overboard here, but maybe I can clarify my previous post. Agree w/JB_Iowa about the control point. Think of it more like a Brewers/Bruan situation where they have a star they locked up. Or, possibly, Angels/Trout (not a small market, obviously). Sendai was devestated by the Tohoku earthquake, so there's a bit of a 'Boston Strong' element here as well. These '13 NPB Champs are absolute heroes to their community. There's another incentive for staying. Finally- and I don't want to go too far off the reservation here, but feel I should mention it- Japan has never had a Kennesaw Mountain Landis, and never will. Yakuza involvement in the game is persistently rumored, and will never go away. The PED issue looks like child's play by comparison. We should be grateful. Clearly, there's no talk now about Tanaka/Rakuten/Yakuza, but then that's not how organized crime works. They don't seek headlines. What they do seek is 'soft levers' to exert pressure and control. Now, I could be totally wrong about this, but felt that I needed to introduce this into the discussion to dispel the idea that easy, 1-to-1 comparisons can/should be made. Could all sorts of 'pressure' be applied to Tanaka? A worthwhile question... For those interested on this aspect of NPB, the most recent scandal (2012) is detailed here: http://ajw.asahi.com/article/sports/base_ball/AJ201206210063

Agree with the other posters, this is a great move. Saw this from a DFA Doumit/sign Suzuki angle initially, so first take was: good move. Taking Gilmartin separately, and considering how he seems to have been rushed through the Braves' system, we can let him spell for '14 in AA or AAA and risk nothing, while giving him time to rebound & adjust. Given that time and support from the org., it's possible he could flesh out his pitches and develop a multi-weapon arsenal. Come '15, he stands to be in serious consideration if all goes well in AA/AAA, and I could see a guy like this adapting to any number of roles. Still, we have to get '14 behind us and the big SP & C transitions first to really be able to say any more about this aspect of the deal. Meantime, he has a chance to develop, we have a chance to mentor and scout, let out rotation shake out, then make a decision. What's not to like?

I think it's a done deal, all shakeout now. The 4-letter network had an interesting piece on Tanaka earlier, worth a read: http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/10154435/mlb-japanese-pitcher-masahiro-tanaka-worth-fuss Context: Rakuten is based in Sendai, northern Honshu (Japan's main island) and is effectively an expansion club following a 2004 merger of the Blue Wave and the Buffaloes. Think: Diamondbacks. This is a new team in a small market, and they just won the big prize because of Tanaka. Dang right they want to keep him! My reference to Japanese culture & Tanaka's wife's career was a window onto the specific 'intangibles' in play that, I feel, is a swing factor persuasive for a Japanese player, but likely not 'in the math' for the average US MLB fan. In the dollars-and-cents/bottom-line-minded culture we live in, mindsets which go against that grain are hard to understand, but worth getting outside the box, if just to figure out how the market will play, and how it will affect our Twins. In that respect, I can speculate that the Twins' strong scouting presence in Asia communicate the cultural complexity involved up the line, and that MGMT was proactive in response, moving early to make their SP signings, and get on Arroyo's doorstep. From that viewpoint, I have nothing but praise for reading the tea leaves, being sensitive/sensible, and taking action sooner rather than later. Watch the SP market go bonkers now- bet Nolasco et al look like bargains come ST.

According to MLBTR, Twins *were* in on the deal on Chavez (no link, just look for the interesting Juan Rincon story). Very interesting, on both counts. Sign Suzuki!

(Still waiting for my last post to show up...) Very latest: CBS has it via NYT that Rakuten will not post Tanaka. http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/eye-on-baseball/24380777/report-rakuten-golden-eagles-will-not-post-masahiro-tanaka

Latest (per MLBTR): Rakuten is doubling his salary to 800m Yen ($7.7m)- a record for the club. The key detail: "The hurler nevertheless appears ready to accept whatever decision Rakuten comes to. 'If the team tells me, 'We're not going to post you. Please stay,' the professional thing to do is give it your all and get back to pitching'". There you go, traditional Confucian Japanese culture. While Tanaka had gone on record as saying he wanted to make the jump, I'd say that the deeply entrenched value for maintenance of order and respect for authority wins out. Another important factor: his wife is a famous J-Pop singer with an established career in Japan- what's she going to do if he jumps? Career restart in NYC, and try to get Jay-Z to break her in the American market? I'm doubling down on the 'no post' wager.

Great thread, and it is the $64,000 question! Nolasco and Hughes were enough to get our attention, but then follow that up with the Pelfrey deal, the Doumit deal, continuing talk about Arroyo, and the fascinating tidbit from MLBTR that the Twins (!) were "in on Eric Chavez before he signed with the Diamondbacks". Utterly fascinating, completely unexpected, and maybe just a little weird. Most long-time fans give TR props, but knowing his long-standing dumpster-diving M.O. probably felt that it was more of the same upon his return. Until this offseason, that's been borne out. As recently as the conclusion of the regular season, he was quoted as saying that free agency is not they way. Clearly, a directive came down from on high. A cat like TR simply does not change his spots overnight just for the heck of it. Not that guy. This has Polhad's fingerprints all over it, and as a businessman, you can bet the bottom line is involved as a major factor. However, pride/self-respect may be a factor as well. Going into the playoffs, I sparred with my Birdo buddy about the Twins' future, and I (somewhat desperately) hoped aloud that the national media attention for the All Star Game would either pressure or shame Pohlad into doing something to fix what ails the Twins. All of this is conjecture, at this point, and the real story will only come out in dribs and drabs over years to come. My guess, however, is that Pohlad realized that you can't build a winning brand with a losing team. TR had returned, and done the same old, same old. Enough was enough, and he lowered the boom. To me, this feels like 'one last chance' for TR, that he was given an ultimatum to 'fix it now', and the charge to make use of the free agent market. The only way I can explain interest in Chavez is that Pohlad asked TR to write a list of areas that needed attention, and then demanded status reports on each position. Status, as in: who are you pursuing? Most of us figured that (the old) TR would do as before: take the lumps with Plouffe, and wait it out until Sano comes up. The Chavez story absolutely flies in the face of that thinking. The Twins famously value loyalty, but also accountability. If a message has been sent to players by the recent deals that their spots are not guaranteed, then you can bet that it's been communicated that TR's spot isn't safe, either, and he sent that message on down the line. Gardy's now on a short leash, too. This is a housecleaning.

Well, I for one think this is a great move. Was on the board yesterday as part of the DFA Domuit movement, as I'd like to see the Twins sign Suzuki. That's my focus at the moment, so for me this is perfect. Of course, as a 'Sign Suzuki' guy, I hope this means that step is soon to follow. If/when the Twins sign a vet catcher, this will obviously be the deal that makes that possible. Fingers crossed...