Jim Crikket

You may very well be right. But if Ryan lays out a plan and Gardy fails to follow it, then it's just one more reason to change managers sooner, rather than later, and bring someone in who has the luxury to follow Ryan's "build for tomorrow" strategy. I actually think maybe Ryan and Gardenhire both have already come to a mutual understanding that this will be Gardenhire's final season, regardless of W-L record. If so, there would be no reason for desperate attempts by Gardy to save his job.

And I would have preferred that they pay for two better pitchers and be less likely to need to abuse anyone because they'd get fewer bad outings in the first place, but that obviously was either not the plan or, if it ever was, that plan got trashed when they couldn't get better pitchers to sign. Now the plan is just to hope the team is good enough to avoid an all-out erosion of the fan base. Next year, they get the extra $25 million in national MLB tv money. It would have been encouraging to see the Twins be willing to spend a little of that money in advance of getting it, but it also would have been totally out of character.

I think the Twins are following a plan, even if I'm not particularly fond of that plan. I'm convinced they see Correia as a true "5th starter," in that he is someone they can send out there every 5 games and, even if he gets knocked around, they can leave him out there for 100+ pitches. That's something they rightfully would not want to do for a Hendriks, Gibson, or other young pitcher that would, in the absence of Correia, likely be the 5th starter. With Correia filling a role that allows him to be "abused" a bit, they can pull the young pitchers early in bad outings. It's kind of the Carl Pavano role, I guess. I'm not sure "cutting payroll" is really the motivation for what's happening, but obviously Ryan is pursuing a "get younger" strategy which has the side effect of cutting payroll. He's rolling the dice more than a little bit, though, because if this does turn in to another very poor team, the resulting further eroding of attendance and general fan interest could mean revenues that will not support payrolls bouncing back upwards in future years when he needs it.

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=1269-Why-Do-We-Care-About-the-Twins

I’ve been pretty critical of the Twins front office lately. I’m not alone in that, of course. Quite a number of fans, including many who are far more informed and better able to communicate than I, feel that the Twins have simply not done enough to improve the team this offseason. (This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com.) Over this Christmas holiday week, I couldn’t help but reflect on matters so much more important than baseball. Will the ideologues in Washington really lead our country in to a deeper recession simply to try to make those who disagree with them look bad? What can we do to help those whose lives have been devastated by terrible storms? How do we make sure our children and their teachers can go about the educational process without fear of seemingly random acts of unthinkable violence? Kind of makes the whole debate over whether Terry Ryan is doing enough to fix the Twins’ rotation seem hardly worth thinking about, much less arguing about over and over, doesn’t it? So why do it? If we’re going to feel so passionate about a problem that we’ll write 1,000 words about it… not once but several times a week… shouldn’t the topic be more substantial than baseball? Of course it should. But I can’t solve those important problems. Nothing I say or write will help. I’ve led a relatively active political life, yet I’ve never felt less able to influence my government. I give to charities, but it seems like a drop in the bucket of what’s needed for humanity. I pray, yet have never felt less aware of God’s presence in our world. http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/frustration2.jpg So perhaps it’s simply that powerlessness that brings me back here. I can’t do anything about any of the important matters facing the world, so I focus attention… arguably too much attention, at times… on baseball. Granted, I have no more influence with Terry Ryan than I do Congress, but I enjoy writing about baseball more than about politics, so here I am and here I shall remain. The give and take with other baseball fans and writers… especially other Twins fans… is enjoyable. It would certainly be more enjoyable if the talent being assembled looked to be more competitive on the field come Opening Day, but we can’t really do any more about that, as fans, than discuss it. So that’s what we do. Is it really all that important whether the Twins are being built to win more games in 2013 or not? Does it matter if we have to wait until 2014… or even 2015 or 2016… for the Twins to be good again? Well, for those of us closer to the end of our projected mortality arc than the beginning of it, it may be more important, but no, it’s not all that critical in the grand scheme of things. But it is important. I don’t believe the Pohlads are evil people out to fleece Twins fans out of our money without any concern for the quality of the product on the field. I don’t believe Terry Ryan is stupid about baseball, nor is he so ego-driven that he is determined to prove he can assemble a winning roster without spending any money at all. I also don’t envision his staff of senior baseball people resembling the group of old-school scouts in the movie version of “Moneyball,” whose player evaluations seemed based solely on “gut feel”. Pohlad and Ryan want to win. I believe they want to win in 2013, while also preparing to contend in years beyond. The players Ryan obtained in return for Denard Span and Ben Revere make it clear that Ryan’s primary focus is at least two years in the future. He knows it would be a very good idea not to have the 2013 Twins lose 95+ games again and he’ll try to avoid that, but he’s clearly not going to waste a lot of energy… or the Pohlads’ money… on any attempt to fix the team’s immediate problems. I still think that’s bad business, but it’s not my business. The Pohlads have entrusted those decisions to Ryan and, presumably, team president Dave St. Peter, so in a few years we’ll see who was right. With the new year almost upon us, it’s probably time to move past the, “what should Terry Ryan do?” phase of the offseason discussion, anyway. Maybe there will be a late bargain available to Ryan over the next couple of months, but for the most part, the roster is set. It will be an $80 million payroll short on established Major League talent. It will be a team projected to finish at the bottom of the AL Central again. But that doesn’t mean it can’t be fun to watch… and to talk about. That’s one of the things that makes baseball the greatest game in the world, to me. When the players… whatever their respective talent levels… take the field, anything can happen. You never know when you might see something you’ve never seen before. I couldn’t begin to count the number of baseball teams I’ve been involved with over the years, from the time I started playing organized ball at the age of 5, through my years as a player, as a coach, and now as merely a fan who enjoys writing about the game and my chosen favorite teams. But I’ve enjoyed literally every summer of baseball for these past 50+ years and I’m sure I’ll enjoy 2013, as well. I will also get frustrated in 2013. I will rant here… and elsewhere… about that frustration. I will argue about it. I will cheer what successes may be found in 2013 and I will try to savor the experience of watching a potential Hall of Fame catcher do his thing for the Twins, just as I savored watching Rod Carew’s talent, even during some very difficult years for the Twins and their fans. I may not spend much of my money on Twins tickets in 2013 (I spent no money at all on them in 2012) because I do believe the only way any of us can genuinely influence Ryan and his bosses to change their business strategy is by speaking with our pocketbooks. I attended 12-15 games a year when I felt the organization was moving in the right direction. I won’t do so when I feel that’s no longer true. http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/Hammond.jpg Hammond Stadium, Spring Training home of the Twins That doesn’t mean I won’t still be a fan. I’ve been a fan through far worse stretches over the past 50 years. For better or worse, being a Twins fan is an important aspect of who I am and I will continue to spend a considerable about of time following them, talking about them, writing about them and, yes, arguing about them. I’m not sure what that says about me, but it probably isn’t good… at least not entirely good. I don’t really care about that. I care about the Twins. And I care that Spring Training is less than two months away. - JC

I’ve been pretty critical of the Twins front office lately. I’m not alone in that, of course. Quite a number of fans, including many who are far more informed and better able to communicate than I, feel that the Twins have simply not done enough to improve the team this offseason. (This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com.) Over this Christmas holiday week, I couldn’t help but reflect on matters so much more important than baseball. Will the ideologues in Washington really lead our country in to a deeper recession simply to try to make those who disagree with them look bad? What can we do to help those whose lives have been devastated by terrible storms? How do we make sure our children and their teachers can go about the educational process without fear of seemingly random acts of unthinkable violence? Kind of makes the whole debate over whether Terry Ryan is doing enough to fix the Twins’ rotation seem hardly worth thinking about, much less arguing about over and over, doesn’t it? So why do it? If we’re going to feel so passionate about a problem that we’ll write 1,000 words about it… not once but several times a week… shouldn’t the topic be more substantial than baseball? Of course it should. But I can’t solve those important problems. Nothing I say or write will help. I’ve led a relatively active political life, yet I’ve never felt less able to influence my government. I give to charities, but it seems like a drop in the bucket of what’s needed for humanity. I pray, yet have never felt less aware of God’s presence in our world. http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/frustration2.jpg So perhaps it’s simply that powerlessness that brings me back here. I can’t do anything about any of the important matters facing the world, so I focus attention… arguably too much attention, at times… on baseball. Granted, I have no more influence with Terry Ryan than I do Congress, but I enjoy writing about baseball more than about politics, so here I am and here I shall remain. The give and take with other baseball fans and writers… especially other Twins fans… is enjoyable. It would certainly be more enjoyable if the talent being assembled looked to be more competitive on the field come Opening Day, but we can’t really do any more about that, as fans, than discuss it. So that’s what we do. Is it really all that important whether the Twins are being built to win more games in 2013 or not? Does it matter if we have to wait until 2014… or even 2015 or 2016… for the Twins to be good again? Well, for those of us closer to the end of our projected mortality arc than the beginning of it, it may be more important, but no, it’s not all that critical in the grand scheme of things. But it is important. I don’t believe the Pohlads are evil people out to fleece Twins fans out of our money without any concern for the quality of the product on the field. I don’t believe Terry Ryan is stupid about baseball, nor is he so ego-driven that he is determined to prove he can assemble a winning roster without spending any money at all. I also don’t envision his staff of senior baseball people resembling the group of old-school scouts in the movie version of “Moneyball,” whose player evaluations seemed based solely on “gut feel”. Pohlad and Ryan want to win. I believe they want to win in 2013, while also preparing to contend in years beyond. The players Ryan obtained in return for Denard Span and Ben Revere make it clear that Ryan’s primary focus is at least two years in the future. He knows it would be a very good idea not to have the 2013 Twins lose 95+ games again and he’ll try to avoid that, but he’s clearly not going to waste a lot of energy… or the Pohlads’ money… on any attempt to fix the team’s immediate problems. I still think that’s bad business, but it’s not my business. The Pohlads have entrusted those decisions to Ryan and, presumably, team president Dave St. Peter, so in a few years we’ll see who was right. With the new year almost upon us, it’s probably time to move past the, “what should Terry Ryan do?” phase of the offseason discussion, anyway. Maybe there will be a late bargain available to Ryan over the next couple of months, but for the most part, the roster is set. It will be an $80 million payroll short on established Major League talent. It will be a team projected to finish at the bottom of the AL Central again. But that doesn’t mean it can’t be fun to watch… and to talk about. That’s one of the things that makes baseball the greatest game in the world, to me. When the players… whatever their respective talent levels… take the field, anything can happen. You never know when you might see something you’ve never seen before. I couldn’t begin to count the number of baseball teams I’ve been involved with over the years, from the time I started playing organized ball at the age of 5, through my years as a player, as a coach, and now as merely a fan who enjoys writing about the game and my chosen favorite teams. But I’ve enjoyed literally every summer of baseball for these past 50+ years and I’m sure I’ll enjoy 2013, as well. I will also get frustrated in 2013. I will rant here… and elsewhere… about that frustration. I will argue about it. I will cheer what successes may be found in 2013 and I will try to savor the experience of watching a potential Hall of Fame catcher do his thing for the Twins, just as I savored watching Rod Carew’s talent, even during some very difficult years for the Twins and their fans. I may not spend much of my money on Twins tickets in 2013 (I spent no money at all on them in 2012) because I do believe the only way any of us can genuinely influence Ryan and his bosses to change their business strategy is by speaking with our pocketbooks. I attended 12-15 games a year when I felt the organization was moving in the right direction. I won’t do so when I feel that’s no longer true. http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/Hammond.jpg Hammond Stadium, Spring Training home of the Twins That doesn’t mean I won’t still be a fan. I’ve been a fan through far worse stretches over the past 50 years. For better or worse, being a Twins fan is an important aspect of who I am and I will continue to spend a considerable about of time following them, talking about them, writing about them and, yes, arguing about them. I’m not sure what that says about me, but it probably isn’t good… at least not entirely good. I don’t really care about that. I care about the Twins. And I care that Spring Training is less than two months away. - JC

If everyone else thinks that 15mm/2yr is right for average pitching, isn't that pretty much establishing it as the market price? Thus agreeing to pay a similar amount is NOT "overpaying"... it's paying market price. If you don't want to pay market prices for resources necessary to be successful in a given business, you should consider getting out of the business. I hope this collection of players is surprisingly successful and if it is, fans will show up for games. If not, revenues won't be there and next season we'll be going through all of this again as ownership complains about reduced revenues necessitating further payroll cuts.

Thanks for the comments. I don't expect Jim Pohlad to throw money around like Illitch does with the Tigers and I don't expect them to go out and sign the top "ace" on the free agent market. But this front office is responsible for the past two atrocious seasons and while the players and fans have suffered through this decline, the ownership has seen the value of their franchise rise (primarily because MLB has been so successful, not because the people running the Twins have done such a marvelous job). I really don't think it's too much to ask of the front office and ownership to demonstrate a greater sense of urgency about fixing the problem they've created. There were a lot of mid-rotation pitchers available this offseason. They weren't ALL "bottom of the order starters". They certainly were not bottom of the TWINS rotation starters! And I'm sorry, but I do not believe for one moment that guys will not sign with the Twins because they have lost a couple of years in a row. It may take a little more money than a contender would have to pay, but to suggest Terry Ryan get off the hook simply because the very best pitchers will want to play for contenders is just being an enabler. You're telling the team, "you failed to improve the team when they were contenders, which caused them to take, but it's ok if you don't improve them now because they aren't contenders." If you ever want this front office and ownership to change their ways, you have to call them out... keep them honest. To make up excuses for them just convinces them that there's no reason for them to ever make a serious attempt to win.

I think you're leaving out a few other options. For example: Scott Baker $5.5 mil Joe Blanton 2 yr/$15 mil Scott Feldman $6 mil Roberto Hernandez $3.25 mil John Lannan $2.5 mil Francisco Liriano 2 yr/$12.75 mil Kyle Lohse - ? Daisuke Matsuzaka - ? Brandon McCarthy 2 yr/$15.5 mil Brett Myers - ? Carlos Villanueva 2 yr/$10 mil Certainly all of these pitchers have various "warts". But the point is that there were... and remain... legitimate options better than Kevin Correia and Mike Pelfrey. And he should still have enough room to sign literally any one (and possibly two) of those that remain without threatening the Twins solvency.

You might want to at least get the torch and pitchfork handy, Brock. In 2007, the Twins opened the year with a $71,439,500 payroll (according to Cot's). As things stand now, if we consider Nick Blackburn's 2013 pay as a sunk cost, the remainder of the Twins payroll looks to be about $74,100,000. Adjusted for even moderate inflation (and there's been nothing moderate about the rate of inflation of MLB salaries), I think we're already in the Metrodome payroll neighborhood.

I just posted an article on this last night at Knuckleballs (and re-posted here at TD this morning). Absent another Major League signing, the Twins currently appear to have about $79,600,000 committed for 2013 (and this includes the $5.5 million they owe Nick Blackburn). It may be a few bucks more if you assume Rich Harden will make the Opening Day roster and get more than the MLB minimum should he do so. That would be more than $20 million LESS than the Opening Day payroll commitment a year ago. So yeah... Joe Mauer's pay is certainly NOT affecting what the Twins FO can do right now. It's not that they can't afford better pitching, they are simply choosing not to acquire it.

Sorry, Brandon (and others who have expressed similar sentiments), I simply could not disagree more strongly. Getting Worley in the Revere deal was fine and the two prospects he got in the trades were certainly needed for the future, but Ryan has simply not done near enough to improve the 2013 rotation. Salary is certainly not the be-all and end-all of evaluating pitching talent, but it certainly is one measuring stick. That being the case, consider this "bad news and worse news": Bad news: Absent an unexpected significant addition to the rotation (e.g. Shawn Marcum), the entire Twins rotation will be making about $10 million in 2013 and Kevin Correia is likely to be the highest paid member of that rotation. Worse news: Even Correia will still be paid less money than Nick Blackburn in 2013. Everyone inside and outside of Twinsville knew the Twins HAD to significantly improve their rotation this offseason. Terry Ryan simply has failed to do so. Going from a rotation with one #4 starter and four guys who probably should not even be in a MLB rotation to one with two #4 starters and... maybe... two #5 starters, while narrowing the number of "should not be starters in a MLB rotation" to only one, is in no way a "significant" improvement. Especially when it comes at the same time you trade away the only two outfielders you had that could actually track down a ball in a gap. Maybe Ryan will surprise us and still add a real pitcher to the rotation, but I'm not holding my breath. If not, then for the second consecutive year you have to give him an "F" grade in the "fix the rotation" subject. And without fixing the rotation, I can't possibly say he has improved the current team in any signficant manner.

Wishing everyone at TD the happiest of holidays! - JC

Terry Ryan has been a busy boy. We may or may not be impressed by what he's been doing, but nobody can say he took an early holiday break from the office. (This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com) The Twins went in to the offseason needing starting pitching. Ryan told anyone who asked that he understood it was his job to improve the rotation. He also has, at various times, mentioned also wanting to add some bullpen pieces and someone to push Trevor Plouffe at third base. http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/TwinsMoneyclip.jpg He also consistently claimed that payroll would not significantly inhibit him from turning one of the worst teams in Major League Baseball in to a group that could compete in the AL Central. Understanding that almost none of us actually believed that last part, I thought now might be a good time to tally up what the Twins' GM has accomplished so far and how much of the Pohlads' money he has spent. So, let's project what the 25-man roster might look like if there are no further additions to the roster. (For the sake of simplifying things, I'll assume all pre-arbitration eligible players will make $500,000... some will make a few bucks more, some a few less.) Starting position players: C Joe Mauer: $23,000,000 1B Justin Morneau: $15,000,000 (inlcudes prorated bonus) 2B Brian Dozier: $500,000 3B Trevor Plouffe: $500,000 SS Jamey Carroll: $3,750,000 LF Josh Willingham: $7,000,000 CF Aaron Hicks: $500,000 RF Chris Parmelee: $500,000 DH Ryan Doumit: $3,500,000 That's $54,250,000 for the projected starting batting order. Ryan may still try to find a third baseman, but chances are he'll go dumpster diving even if he does find one, so I think it's safe to project that whatever four players Manager Ron Gardenhire will have keeping him company on the bench will be making somewhere close to the league minimum, so that's another $2,000,000 for some combination of Darin Mastroianni, Pedro Florimon, Eduardo Escobar, Oswaldo Arcia, Drew Butera, Chris Herrmann and/or whoever else claims a bench spot in Spring Training. (Butera is arbitration eligible, but it's unlikely he'll be awarded much, if any, above $500,000,) That makes $56,250,000 for 13 non-pitchers. Let's take a peek in to the bullpen: Closer Glen Perkins: $2,500,000 Set Up Jared Burton: $2,050,000 LHRP Brian Duensing: $1,300,000 (est. arb award) RHRP Anthony Swarzak: $500,000 RHRP Alex Burnett: $500,000 RHRP Casey Fien: $500,000 RHRP Josh Roenicke: $500,000 Yes, pretty much everyone below Duensing on the above list is going to have to win a spot in Spring Training, but for financial purposes this projection works. It would seem unlikely that anyone currently with the organization who knocks one of the last four guys out of the bullpen would make much more money. That adds up to a $7,850,000 bullpen. OK, we've put off projecting the starting pitching as long as we can, but let's uncover our eyes and take a look at the current state of the rotation: Kevin Correia: $4,500,000 Mike Pelfrey: $4,000,000 Vance Worley: $500,000 Scott Diamond: $500,000 Liam Hendriks: $500,000 Once again, we could discuss the chances of Pelfrey being healthy enough to start the season in the rotation or whether Kyle Gibson will be there to open the season or whether someone like Pedro Hernandez might impress in Spring Training, but the net effect would just be swapping another "minimum wage" earner in to the fifth spot. So that's an even $10,000,000 for the rotation. Yes, in an era when mediocre starting pitchers are getting seven figure salaries, the Twins look to pay their entire rotation $10 million. And if that doesn't bother you enough, consider that Kevin Correia will make up 45% of that total. That all adds up to a current Major League payroll of $74,100,000. Even if we have to add the $5,500,000 the Twins owe Nick Blackburn (yes, the Twins look like they'll pay Blackburn more money NOT to pitch for them in 2013 than they'll pay anyone else TO pitch), the total amounts to only $79,600,000... for the entire roster. Rich Harden signed a minor league contract with the Twins this week and I haven't read yet whether his deal includes something more than minimum wage pay if he makes the Big League roster out of Spring Training, but it certainly wouldn't be surprising. That said, I think we will need to see Harden throw hard and stay healthy before we worry too much about what effect he'll have on the payroll. Maybe Terry Ryan isn't finished. One would certainly like to think he's spending some time with the agents of a couple of the remaining starting pitchers on the market who have demonstrated some level of proficiency of getting batters out over the last year or two, but would you be willing to bet on someone like Shawn Marcum still being added to the roster? Yeah... me either. The Twins' Opening Day payrolls during their three seasons at Target Field have been $97,659,167 (2010), $113,237,000 (2011) and $100,435,000 (2012)*, according to Cot's Baseball Contracts. It's virtually assured, at this point, that the Opening Day payroll in 2013 will be the lowest since the final year the team spent at the Metrodome when they opened at $65,299,266. *Charley Waters of the Pioneer Press Tweeted over the weekend that it appeared the Twins Opening Day payroll would be about $83 million, $11 million fewer than in 2012. The only thing I can assume is that Charley is not counting the $3 million owed to Tsuyoshi Nishioka and the portion of Francisco Liriano's paycheck the team avoided paying by trading him. Perhaps the Twins had insurance that negated Scott Baker's salary? I don't know, but even his newspaper's published estimate of the Twins Opening Day payroll last year was about $100 million. Waters must also be assuming Terry Ryan is going to spend another $5 million somewhere because I can't come up with anything close to $83 million right now. What conclusions can we draw from this? Here's my big take-away: Terry Ryan could have slashed Opening Day payroll by 10% to $90 million and still had over $20 million to spend on starting pitching. Instead he has pried less than $10 million out of the Pohlads' wallets to fix arguably the most glaring problem of any team in Major League Baseball. http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/Empty-Target-Field.jpg Could this be a glimpse of what Target Field will look like during Twins games in 2013? Personally, I think cutting payroll even 10% from last season's level when you've got an entire community of frustrated and distrusting fans is just bad business. The Twins brass keep talking about planning to compete in 2013, but talking that way while simultaneously cutting payroll by more than 20% is insulting our intelligence. I think they're underestimating the baseball IQ of their fanbase and they will see far more empty seats at Target Field in 2013 than they are expecting. Of course, that's when we're likely to learn what "insulting" really is... because that's when someone in the organization is going to complain publicly about a lack of fan support. You get the level of fan support you earn. Right now, I don't think the Twins front office has earned the right to expect a single fan to show up for a game. Let's hope that changes over the next couple of months. - JC

Terry Ryan has been a busy boy. We may or may not be impressed by what he's been doing, but nobody can say he took an early holiday break from the office. (This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com) The Twins went in to the offseason needing starting pitching. Ryan told anyone who asked that he understood it was his job to improve the rotation. He also has, at various times, mentioned also wanting to add some bullpen pieces and someone to push Trevor Plouffe at third base. http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/TwinsMoneyclip.jpg He also consistently claimed that payroll would not significantly inhibit him from turning one of the worst teams in Major League Baseball in to a group that could compete in the AL Central. Understanding that almost none of us actually believed that last part, I thought now might be a good time to tally up what the Twins' GM has accomplished so far and how much of the Pohlads' money he has spent. So, let's project what the 25-man roster might look like if there are no further additions to the roster. (For the sake of simplifying things, I'll assume all pre-arbitration eligible players will make $500,000... some will make a few bucks more, some a few less.) Starting position players: C Joe Mauer: $23,000,000 1B Justin Morneau: $15,000,000 (inlcudes prorated bonus) 2B Brian Dozier: $500,000 3B Trevor Plouffe: $500,000 SS Jamey Carroll: $3,750,000 LF Josh Willingham: $7,000,000 CF Aaron Hicks: $500,000 RF Chris Parmelee: $500,000 DH Ryan Doumit: $3,500,000 That's $54,250,000 for the projected starting batting order. Ryan may still try to find a third baseman, but chances are he'll go dumpster diving even if he does find one, so I think it's safe to project that whatever four players Manager Ron Gardenhire will have keeping him company on the bench will be making somewhere close to the league minimum, so that's another $2,000,000 for some combination of Darin Mastroianni, Pedro Florimon, Eduardo Escobar, Oswaldo Arcia, Drew Butera, Chris Herrmann and/or whoever else claims a bench spot in Spring Training. (Butera is arbitration eligible, but it's unlikely he'll be awarded much, if any, above $500,000,) That makes $56,250,000 for 13 non-pitchers. Let's take a peek in to the bullpen: Closer Glen Perkins: $2,500,000 Set Up Jared Burton: $2,050,000 LHRP Brian Duensing: $1,300,000 (est. arb award) RHRP Anthony Swarzak: $500,000 RHRP Alex Burnett: $500,000 RHRP Casey Fien: $500,000 RHRP Josh Roenicke: $500,000 Yes, pretty much everyone below Duensing on the above list is going to have to win a spot in Spring Training, but for financial purposes this projection works. It would seem unlikely that anyone currently with the organization who knocks one of the last four guys out of the bullpen would make much more money. That adds up to a $7,850,000 bullpen. OK, we've put off projecting the starting pitching as long as we can, but let's uncover our eyes and take a look at the current state of the rotation: Kevin Correia: $4,500,000 Mike Pelfrey: $4,000,000 Vance Worley: $500,000 Scott Diamond: $500,000 Liam Hendriks: $500,000 Once again, we could discuss the chances of Pelfrey being healthy enough to start the season in the rotation or whether Kyle Gibson will be there to open the season or whether someone like Pedro Hernandez might impress in Spring Training, but the net effect would just be swapping another "minimum wage" earner in to the fifth spot. So that's an even $10,000,000 for the rotation. Yes, in an era when mediocre starting pitchers are getting seven figure salaries, the Twins look to pay their entire rotation $10 million. And if that doesn't bother you enough, consider that Kevin Correia will make up 45% of that total. That all adds up to a current Major League payroll of $74,100,000. Even if we have to add the $5,500,000 the Twins owe Nick Blackburn (yes, the Twins look like they'll pay Blackburn more money NOT to pitch for them in 2013 than they'll pay anyone else TO pitch), the total amounts to only $79,600,000... for the entire roster. Rich Harden signed a minor league contract with the Twins this week and I haven't read yet whether his deal includes something more than minimum wage pay if he makes the Big League roster out of Spring Training, but it certainly wouldn't be surprising. That said, I think we will need to see Harden throw hard and stay healthy before we worry too much about what effect he'll have on the payroll. Maybe Terry Ryan isn't finished. One would certainly like to think he's spending some time with the agents of a couple of the remaining starting pitchers on the market who have demonstrated some level of proficiency of getting batters out over the last year or two, but would you be willing to bet on someone like Shawn Marcum still being added to the roster? Yeah... me either. The Twins' Opening Day payrolls during their three seasons at Target Field have been $97,659,167 (2010), $113,237,000 (2011) and $100,435,000 (2012)*, according to Cot's Baseball Contracts. It's virtually assured, at this point, that the Opening Day payroll in 2013 will be the lowest since the final year the team spent at the Metrodome when they opened at $65,299,266. *Charley Waters of the Pioneer Press Tweeted over the weekend that it appeared the Twins Opening Day payroll would be about $83 million, $11 million fewer than in 2012. The only thing I can assume is that Charley is not counting the $3 million owed to Tsuyoshi Nishioka and the portion of Francisco Liriano's paycheck the team avoided paying by trading him. Perhaps the Twins had insurance that negated Scott Baker's salary? I don't know, but even his newspaper's published estimate of the Twins Opening Day payroll last year was about $100 million. Waters must also be assuming Terry Ryan is going to spend another $5 million somewhere because I can't come up with anything close to $83 million right now. What conclusions can we draw from this? Here's my big take-away: Terry Ryan could have slashed Opening Day payroll by 10% to $90 million and still had over $20 million to spend on starting pitching. Instead he has pried less than $10 million out of the Pohlads' wallets to fix arguably the most glaring problem of any team in Major League Baseball. http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/Empty-Target-Field.jpg Could this be a glimpse of what Target Field will look like during Twins games in 2013? Personally, I think cutting payroll even 10% from last season's level when you've got an entire community of frustrated and distrusting fans is just bad business. The Twins brass keep talking about planning to compete in 2013, but talking that way while simultaneously cutting payroll by more than 20% is insulting our intelligence. I think they're underestimating the baseball IQ of their fanbase and they will see far more empty seats at Target Field in 2013 than they are expecting. Of course, that's when we're likely to learn what "insulting" really is... because that's when someone in the organization is going to complain publicly about a lack of fan support. You get the level of fan support you earn. Right now, I don't think the Twins front office has earned the right to expect a single fan to show up for a game. Let's hope that changes over the next couple of months. - JC

I guess if you want to believe that, despite there being pretty much no hint whatsoever of the Twins doing more than "checking in" with agents of real pitchers, Terry Ryan has actually been working his ass off to sign one or more of those guys and always comes just THIS close, but always gets outbid by another team or the pitcher always wants to sign with better teams (like those perennial champions the Chicago Cubs, for example?), that's fine. I think you're giving him too much credit and I'll actually believe he is seriously going after a real pitcher when he actually gets one to sign on the dotted line... because the next time he lands one will be the first time. Until then, I'm done giving him credit for "trying".

Exactly right. As far as I'm concerned, Ryan and the Pohlads are synonymous. Both are equally culpable for failing (this far) to address the current rotation issues in any serious manner. Yes, it's ownership that establish budgetary limits. However, how many times did we hear Jim Pohlad, Dave St. Peter and Terry Ryan say publicly that budget is not an issue... that Ryan doesn't get told he "can't" spend money... that they intended to field a competitive team in 2013, not just rebuild for the future? Didn't Ryan, himself, say that it was his job to assemble a rotation... in fact an entire roster... capable of doing so? Does he get off the hook because FA prices were higher than he expected? I would hope not. Look, I've been a Terry Ryan fan for years. I still really like the guy and think he's a VERY smart baseball man. But he and his bosses ALL have been telling fans we should expect to see a competitive team in 2013. That being the case, I just can't understand why so many people are willing to accept less from this front office.

...or... you know... base the expectations on exactly that Ryan said he intended to do in interviews. If our expectations this time were unreasonable, it was Ryan who established them by telling everyone his intention was to explore every avenue to add better starting pitching. I'm sorry, but adding a bunch of guys who MIGHT be acceptable #5 pitchers IF they can transition from the NL and/or come back from major injuries and/or have better years than any other years in their careers simply is not what Ryan himself led fans to believe he would settle for.

I caught the Joe Posnanski live chat yesterday, too. He was asked by one desperate Twins fan to say at least one positive thing he liked about the Twins. His answer is that he likes the interlocking TC on their caps, beyond that there's nothing. I reluctantly have to agree. Barring an unexpected addition to the top of the Twins rotation, rather than more possible #5s, I can't see any reason to spend money to watch the 2013 Twins.

Freddy Friggin Garcia? Seriously? Is it possible to astonished and yet not surprised much at all? It has become obvious that Ryan decided to spend his money on 3-4 crappy options at $3-5 million a piece, rather than 2 legitimate Major League pitchers at $10+ million each. Could be a complete overreaction to the injuries last year but nobody should be at all surprised if the results are 100+ losses. And the most frustrating thing is that it didn't have to happen. The money is... or should be... available to have significantly improved the top of the rotation, not just add a few guys who might arguably be better #5 starters than the 2012 crew.

You're correct, Chief. I stand corrected... it was a year earlier that the Twins re-signed Pavano. I guess there were NO rotation FAs signed at this point last year.

I imagine the reason guys, especially those like Beresford, get moved around a lot is that the Twins simply don't know what position they're going to need to fill if/when that player is ready to contribute at the MLB level. Using James as an example, let's say a year from now they feel he's ready to compete for a spot as a utility infielder with the Twins. If he's played SS 90% of the time and someone asks, "yeah but can he play 2B?" you wouldn't know the answer. Since he's been splitting time at the two positions, anyone who's watched him frequently would, presumably, know the answer to that question. I imagine that's why we see catchers and infielders (at least those who look to have some aptitude with a bat in their hands) playing some outfield, as well. If Chris Parmelee had been used pretty much exclusively at 1B coming up through the organization, nobody would know whether he could hold down RF or not. But because he did play the position some, there's at least a comfort level with putting him out there. You know you aren't getting a gold glove OF, but you do know what to expect and can judge whether that's adequate for your purposes.

Due respect, that's not altogether true. There were many, many of us who were upset with the lack of attention Terry Ryan paid to the rotation last year at this time. Pretty much every "offseason blueprint" included upgrades in the rotation. Then the Twins publicly announced that they were cutting payroll 10% and we all knew that meant we could forget about improving the rotation. The "big FA signing" at this point a year ago was re-signing Pavano and while we didn't "know" he would have arm issues, it certainly couldn't come as a surprise to anyone. While Ryan did a nice job of replacing Kubel and Cuddyer adequately and for less money, he did fail to address the need to improve the rotation a year ago and there was no shortage of people pointing that out. By slashing payroll a year ago, he left the rotation situation in a position where everything had to break right to get even adequate starting pitching. Obviously, things did not break right. The result was predictable and now the rotation hole Ryan has to dig out of is only deeper... and still he's unable or unwilling to even pick up a shovel.

I'm a bit behind in my reading lately, so apologies if this has already been shared. It's an interview I stumbled on via a link from the CR Kernels website, written by the Prospective Blog's Andrew Pentis: Prospect Q&A: Don't pass the 'Buck' | MiLB.com News | The Official Site of Minor League Baseball