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  1. You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=2150-Farmville-Buxton-Named-FSL-Offensive-Player-of-the-Week
  2. All hail Lord Byron. It took him awhile to adjust to his new Fort Myers digs, but Byron Buxton is once again doing man things. On Monday, Buxton was named Florida State League Offensive Player of the Week for the week ending July 28th, further cementing his status as the top prospect in baseball. To celebrate his latest achievement, he went 2-for-5 with a stolen base and a run scored Monday night, pacing the Miracle to a 5-0 win over Scott Baker (!!!) and the Daytona Cubs. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] After disrespecting Midwest League pitching to the tune of .341/.431/.559 as a member of the Cedar Rapids Kernels, including 32 steals, 33 extra-base hits and 56 RBI out of the leadoff spot, Buxton was finally promoted to Fort Myers on June 25th. After a slow start with the Miracle, he apparently remembered that he’s good at baseball, and now sports a strong .282/.338/.476 line over his first 29 games in the pitcher-friendly FSL. Monday night marked the sixth time in seven games that Buxton has tallied two hits, part of a 12-for-30 stretch. As noted by Baseball America’s Ben Badler in his Monday Prospect Notebook, Buxton is mounting a strong case for BA Minor League Player of the Year honors in his first full pro season. Badler further speculates that a promotion to Double-A by season’s end is a possibility for the 19-year-old, with a 2014 major league debut not out of the question. Not that the Twins could use the help or anything. #p2c Originally published at pitching2contact
  3. [ATTACH=CONFIG]5023[/ATTACH] All hail Lord Byron. It took him awhile to adjust to his new Fort Myers digs, but Byron Buxton is once again doing man things. On Monday, Buxton was named Florida State League Offensive Player of the Week for the week ending on July 28th, further cementing his status as the top prospect in baseball. To celebrate his latest achievement, he went 2-for-5 with a stolen base and a run scored Monday night, pacing the Miracle to a 5-0 win over Scott Baker (!!!) and the Daytona Cubs. After pissing on Midwest League pitching to the tune of .341/.431/.559 as a member of the Cedar Rapids Kernels, including 32 steals, 33 extra-base hits and 56 runs batted in out of the leadoff spot, Buxton was finally promoted to Fort Myers on June 25th. After a slow start with the Miracle, he apparently remembered that he’s good at baseball, and he now sports a solid .282/.338/.476 line over his first 29 games in the FSL. Monday night marked the sixth time in seven games that Buxton has tallied two hits, part of a 12-for-30 stretch overall. As noted by Baseball America’s Ben Badler in his Monday Prospect Notebook, Buxton is mounting a strong case for BA Minor League Player of the Year honors in this just his first pro season. Badler further speculates that a promotion to Double-A by season’s end is a possibility for the 19-year-old, with a 2014 major league debut not out of the question. Not that the Twins could use the help or anything. #p2c Originally published at pitching2contact
  4. You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=2134-A-Vote-for-Pedro-The-Underappreciated-Pedro-Florimon
  5. On Opening Day 2013, Pedro Florimon became the eighth* different player in the past nine years to open the season as the Twins' starting shortstop. Since the departure of Christian Guzman in 2005, it’s been a perennial struggle to find the next fixture at what is generally, outside of catcher, the most important defensive position in baseball. Fortunately, in yet another season where little has gone right, the Twins appear to have filled their vacancy at shortstop for the foreseeable future. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Florimon has never been much touted for his offense and, true to form, his .236/.292/.351 line this year leaves much to be desired. However, that line looks much better in the context of .254/.307/.365 league averages, with shortstop traditionally being the weakest offensive position on the diamond. In fact, among his 26 contemporaries with at least 250 plate appearances this season, Florimon sits a respectable 16th in TAv** and 17th in wRC+***, ahead of players like Elvis Andrus and Starlin Castro, among others. Further, given his age (just 26), minor league numbers (slightly better across the board), and relative inexperience (just 131 games at the major league level), it’s not crazy to expect some modest improvement as he enters what should be his prime next season. But what really sets Florimon apart – and what will surely prove incredibly valuable in the years to come, as explained below – is his defense. Florimon committed his ninth error of the season Friday night in Seattle (tied for ninth most among shortstops), so he clearly has room to improve in terms of fundamentals. Having said that, advanced defensive metrics indicate he is already among the elite at his position. In terms of both UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating) and DRS (Defensive Runs Saved), commonly cited as the two most accurate measures of defensive performance, Florimon rates as the second best shortstop in baseball – second only to Atlanta’s Andrelton Simmons, widely considered to be the best defensive shortstop in the game. He also ranks fourth in Baseball Prospectus’ FRAA (Fielding Runs Above Average), behind Milwaukee’s Jean Segura, the aforementioned Simmons, and St. Louis’ Pete Kozma. Largely as a result of his defense, Florimon has already been worth 1.7 WAR per FanGraphs (and 2.2 WAR per Baseball Reference), making him the Twins' second-most valuable position player behind Joe Mauer this season. With Florimon earning just $495,000 this season and not eligible for arbitration until 2016, he is and will likely remain among the better values in all baseball over the next few seasons. Looking ahead to 2014 and beyond, the value of that defense cannot be overstated. The Twins likely second and third basemen of the future, Eddie Rosario and Miguel Sano, both currently reside at Double-A New Britain. Both rank among the best offensive talents in the minor leagues at their respective positions, and it’s not out of the question that both could be playing at Target Field as early as 2014. What neither is known for, however, is excellence on defense, making the fielding range of whoever is playing between them at short that much more important. Assuming Rosario and Sano continue to develop as expected, Florimon projects as their ideal complement in the field, making him a key component of the rebuilding effort. With the fifth worst record in baseball through 100 games, the Twins' front office is surely in all-out evaluation mode, trying to determine which members of the current roster will be around to help stem the losing tide next season. Based on his performance thus far, Florimon is one player who seems virtually assured of a spot in the 2014 opening day lineup. After almost a decade of trying to plug the six-hole, it seems the Twins finally have found their guy. #p2c *The others: Jason Bartlett (2005, 2007), Juan Castro (2006), Adam Everett (2008), Nick Punto (2009), JJ Hardy (2010), Alexi Casilla (2011), and Jamey Carroll (2012)…yuck. **Per Baseball Prospectus, TAv is a measure of total offensive value scaled to batting average. ***Per FanGraphs, wRC+ is a park- and league-adjusted measure of a player’s total offensive value compared with league average. Originally published on pitching.2.contact
  6. [ATTACH=CONFIG]4967[/ATTACH] On opening day 2013, Pedro Florimon became the eighth* different player in the past nine years to open the season as the Twins starting shortstop. Since the departure of Christian Guzman in 2005, it’s been a perennial struggle to find the next fixture at what is generally the most important defensive position in baseball outside of catcher. Fortunately, in yet another season in which little has gone right, the Twins appear to have filled their vacancy at shortstop for the foreseeable future. Florimon has never been touted for his offense, and true to form his .236/.292/.351 line to date leaves much to be desired. However, that line looks much better in the context of .254/.307/.365 league averages, with shortstop traditionally being the weakest offensive position on the diamond. In fact, among his 26 contemporaries with at least 250 plate appearances this season, Florimon sits a respectable 16th in TAv** and 17th in wRC+***, ahead of players like Elvis Andrus and Starlin Castro among others. Further, given his age (just 26), minor league numbers (slightly better across the board), and relative inexperience (just 131 games at the major league level), it’s not crazy to expect some modest improvement as he enters what should be his prime next season. But what really sets Florimon apart – and what will surely prove incredibly valuable in the years to come, as explained below – is his defense. Florimon committed his ninth error of the season Friday night in Seattle (tied for ninth most among shortstops), so he clearly has room to improve in terms of fundamentals. Having said that, advanced defensive metrics indicate he is already among the elite at his position. In terms of both UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating) and DRS (Defensive Runs Saved), commonly cited as the two most accurate measures of defensive ability, Florimon rates as the second best shortstop in baseball – second only to Atlanta’s Andrelton Simmons, widely considered to be the best defensive shortstop in the game. He also ranks fourth in Baseball Prospectus’ FRAA (Fielding Runs Above Average), behind Milwaukee’s Jean Segura, the aforementioned Simmons, and St. Louis’ Pete Kozma. Largely as a result of his defense, Florimon has already been worth 1.7 WAR per FanGraphs (and 2.2 WAR per Baseball Reference), making him the Twins second most valuable position player behind Joe Mauer this season. With Florimon making just $495,000 this season and not eligible for arbitration until 2016, he is and will likely remain among the better values in all of baseball over the next few seasons. Looking ahead to 2014 and beyond, the value of that defense cannot be overstated. The Twins likely second and third basemen of the future, Eddie Rosario and Miguel Sano, both currently reside at Double-A New Britain. Both rank among the best offensive talents in the minor leagues at their respective positions, and it’s not out of the question that both could be playing at Target Field as early as 2014. What neither is known for, however, is excellence on defense, making the range of whomever is playing between them at short that much more important. Assuming Rosario and Sano continue to develop as expected, Florimon projects as their ideal compliment in the field, making him a key component of the rebuilding effort. With the fifth worst record in baseball through 100 games, the Twins front office is surely in all out evaluation mode, trying to determine which members of the current roster will be around to help stem the losing tides next season. Based on his performance thus far, Florimon is one player who seems virtually assured of a spot in the 2014 opening day lineup. After almost a decade of trying to plug the six-hole, it seems the Twins finally have found their guy. #p2c *The others: Jason Bartlett (2005, 2007), Juan Castro (2006), Adam Everett (2008), Nick Punto (2009), JJ Hardy (2010), Alexi Casilla (2011), and Jamey Carroll (2012)…yuck. **Per Baseball Prospectus, TAv is a measure of total offensive value scaled to batting average. ***Per FanGraphs, wRC+ is a park- and league-adjusted measure of a player’s total offensive value compared with league average. Originally published on pitching.2.contact
  7. I understand the premise, but have to disagree with the conclusion. Coming off of three straight 90-loss seasons, entering 2014 with Correia and Pelfrey comprising 40 percent of the rotation again isn't going to sit well. Pelfrey is what he is at this point, and I would much rather roll the dice with uncertain young arms with upside than lock up Pelfrey at a discount.
  8. [attachment=6334:2978.attach] Last week’s Triple-A All-Star Game marked the last of the minor league midsummer classics. The passing of the first half also meant the release of several midseason top prospect lists, and with the Twins steamrolling towards another 90-loss season, at least fans can take solace in the various updated rankings and know that better days are ahead. Several highly respected prospect evaluators released their midseason rankings over the past month, and not surprisingly, the Twins organization was very well represented.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] [B]Baseball America (Top 50):[/B] [LIST] [*]Byron Buxton (1) [*]Miguel Sano (3) [*]Alex Meyer (32) [/LIST] [B]Baseball Prospectus (Top 50):[/B] [LIST] [*]Byron Buxton (1) [*]Miguel Sano (6) [*]Alex Meyer (44) [/LIST] [B]FanGraphs (Top 50):[/B] [LIST] [*]Byron Buxton (1) [*]Miguel Sano (10) [*]Alex Meyer (36) [/LIST] [B]Keith Law (Top 50):[/B] [LIST] [*]Byron Buxton (1) [*]Miguel Sano (4) [*]Kohl Stewart (30)* [*]Alex Meyer (38) [*]Eddie Rosario (41) [/LIST] [B]John Sickels (Top 75):[/B] [LIST] [*]Byron Buxton (1) [*]Miguel Sano (3) [*]Alex Meyer (51) [*]Eddie Rosario (56) [/LIST] [I]*Only list to include 2013 draft picks [/I] Observations: Byron Buxton’s huge first half has made him the unanimous number one prospect in all baseball. Miguel Sano is a consensus top ten prospect and arguably the best power bat in the minors. Despite being sidelined the past several weeks with a shoulder injury, Alex Meyer has eased concerns about his mechanics and turned himself into an elite starting pitching prospect. Eddie Rosario has largely flown under the radar, but finds himself on the cusp of top-50 territory. Kohl Stewart is undoubtedly the top pitching prospect in the Twins organization, and will surely be a top three prospect heading into next year. Even with the 2013 promotions of top ten prospects Aaron Hicks, Oswaldo Arcia, and Kyle Gibson, the Twins pool of minor leaguers remains full of want and wet with talent. With as many as five potential top-50 guys and a number of other candidates (Max Kepler, Trevor May, Jose Barrios) knocking on the door, the Twins are assured of being well represented in virtually every 2014 top prospect list and a legit contender for the top organization in baseball. Someday we will look back at these 90-loss seasons and laugh, but until then the promise of a brighter future will have to do. [B][I]#p2c [/I][/B][I][B]Originally published on [URL="http://pitching2contact.tumblr.com/"]pitching.2.contact[/URL][/B][/I] View full article
  9. Last week’s Triple-A All-Star Game marked the last of the minor league midsummer classics. The passing of the first half also meant the release of several midseason top prospect lists, and with the Twins steamrolling towards another 90-loss season, at least fans can take solace in the various updated rankings and know that better days are ahead. Several highly respected prospect evaluators released their midseason rankings over the past month, and not surprisingly, the Twins organization was very well represented.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Baseball America (Top 50): Byron Buxton (1) Miguel Sano (3) Alex Meyer (32) Baseball Prospectus (Top 50): Byron Buxton (1) Miguel Sano (6) Alex Meyer (44) FanGraphs (Top 50): Byron Buxton (1) Miguel Sano (10) Alex Meyer (36) Keith Law (Top 50): Byron Buxton (1) Miguel Sano (4) Kohl Stewart (30)* Alex Meyer (38) Eddie Rosario (41) John Sickels (Top 75): Byron Buxton (1) Miguel Sano (3) Alex Meyer (51) Eddie Rosario (56) *Only list to include 2013 draft picks Observations: Byron Buxton’s huge first half has made him the unanimous number one prospect in all baseball. Miguel Sano is a consensus top ten prospect and arguably the best power bat in the minors. Despite being sidelined the past several weeks with a shoulder injury, Alex Meyer has eased concerns about his mechanics and turned himself into an elite starting pitching prospect. Eddie Rosario has largely flown under the radar, but finds himself on the cusp of top-50 territory. Kohl Stewart is undoubtedly the top pitching prospect in the Twins organization, and will surely be a top three prospect heading into next year. Even with the 2013 promotions of top ten prospects Aaron Hicks, Oswaldo Arcia, and Kyle Gibson, the Twins pool of minor leaguers remains full of want and wet with talent. With as many as five potential top-50 guys and a number of other candidates (Max Kepler, Trevor May, Jose Barrios) knocking on the door, the Twins are assured of being well represented in virtually every 2014 top prospect list and a legit contender for the top organization in baseball. Someday we will look back at these 90-loss seasons and laugh, but until then the promise of a brighter future will have to do. #p2c Originally published on pitching.2.contact
  10. [ATTACH=CONFIG]4950[/ATTACH] Last week’s Triple-A All-Star Game marked the last of the minor league circuit’s midsummer classics. The passing of the first half also meant the release of several midseason top prospect lists, and with the Twins steamrolling towards another 90-loss season, at least fans can take solace in the various updated rankings and know that better days are ahead. Several highly respected prospect evaluators released their midseason rankings over the past month, and not surprisingly, the Twins organization was very well represented. Baseball America (Top 50): Byron Buxton (1) Miguel Sano (3) Alex Meyer (32) Baseball Prospectus (Top 50): Byron Buxton (1) Miguel Sano (6) Alex Meyer (44) FanGraphs (Top 50): Byron Buxton (1) Miguel Sano (10) Alex Meyer (36) Keith Law (Top 50): Byron Buxton (1) Miguel Sano (4) Kohl Stewart (30)* Alex Meyer (38) Eddie Rosario (41) John Sickels (Top 75): Byron Buxton (1) Miguel Sano (3) Alex Meyer (51) Eddie Rosario (56) *Only list to include 2013 draft picks Observations: Byron Buxton’s huge first half has made him the unanimous number one prospect in all of baseball. Miguel Sano is a consensus top ten prospect and arguably the best power bat in the minors. Despite being sidelined the past several weeks with a shoulder injury, Alex Meyer has eased concerns about his mechanics and turned himself into an elite starting pitching prospect. Eddie Rosario has largely flown under the radar, but finds himself on the cusp of top-50 territory. Kohl Stewart is undoubtedly the top pitcher in the Twins organization, and will surely be a top three prospect heading into next year. Even with the 2013 promotions of top ten prospects Aaron Hicks, Oswaldo Arcia, and Kyle Gibson, the Twins pool of minor leaguers remains full of want and wet with talent. With as many as five potential top-50 guys and a number of other candidates (Max Kepler, Trevor May, Jose Berrios, etc.) knocking on the door, the Twins are assured of being well represented in virtually every 2014 top prospect list and a legit contender for the top organization in baseball. Someday we will look back at these 90-loss seasons and laugh, but until then the promise of a brighter future will have to do. #p2c Originally published on pitching.2.contact
  11. From diamond in the rough to just plain rough. For Twins starter Scott Diamond, it’s been a tale of two seasons. One of the lone bright spots on a 2012 Twins team that lost 96 games en route to a second straight last place finish in the AL Central, Diamond managed to go 12-9 with a 3.54 ERA over 173 IP, good enough for 2.3/2.4 WAR depending on your preference. Heading into the offseason, he was the only Twins starter assured of a spot in the 2013 rotation, and was generally expected to be the staff ace in just his second full season in the bigs. And then 2013 happened. Diamond started the season on the DL following minor offseason elbow surgery, and things have been ugly since his return. Following his most recent shellacking Sunday against the Indians in which he lasted just 4.2 innings, Diamond is now 5-9 while sporting a 5.53 ERA. The southpaw has been terrible against lefties (.343/.398/.646), and not much better against righties (.301/.344/.476). He has completed six innings in just 2 of his last 13 appearances, and opponents are slashing a ridiculous .452/.520/.845 against him the third time through the lineup. He’s been bad on the road, and even worse at Target Field. Simply put, he’s been ****ty no matter how you cut it. So what the hell happened? A closer look at Diamond’s 2012 numbers reveal that he probably wasn’t as good as his peripherals would indicate; his 3.94 FIP and 3.93 xFIP suggest his ERA should have been about a half a run higher than it was. He compensated for a severe lack of strikeouts with a solid BABIP and strand rate, by inducing a lot of ground balls, and by walking almost no one. In short, Diamond probably pitched about as well as anyone could have hoped given his lack of pedigree and merely average stuff, and some regression should have been expected. Enter regression. Diamond’s 2013 numbers are significantly worse across the board. Not surprisingly, his BABIP (.319 vs. .292) and strand rate (67.4% vs. 73.3%) have come back to earth. He is also inducing far fewer groundballs (46.2% vs. 53.4%), and fly balls are leaving the park at a much higher rate (14.2% vs. 11.4%). Further, his already low strikeout rate (4.68/9) is now the worst in MLB (4.03/9), and it has been accompanied by an increase in walks (2.53/9 vs. 1.61/9). It all adds up to a 5.20 FIP and 4.68 xFIP, which somehow are actually better than his league-worst ERA. In looking at his PITCHf/x data, Diamond’s problems appear to stem from the reduced effectiveness of his curveball. Easily his best pitch in terms of pitch value in 2012 (3.3 runs above average), it has become been a net negative pitch in 2013 (-5.5). Perhaps as a result, Diamond is throwing it much less often this season (23.9% down from 29.0%). Those curveballs have become fastballs in 2013, and unfortunately, Diamond’s fastball is nothing to write home about. In fact, it produced negative value last year (-3.7) and has been even worse this year (-9.6), likely due in part to a slight decrease in velocity (88.3 vs. 89.3). Looking at Diamond’s release points on Brooks Baseball (and with the obvious caveat that I am a pitching novice), it appears that he’s not getting on top of the ball as well this year. His curveball also appears to have flattened out since last season, with more horizontal but less vertical break. Whatever the reason, his new approach has rendered him ineffective as a starter this season. So which is the real version of Diamond: 2012 or 2013? Truthfully, the answer probably lies somewhere in between, though I lean more towards the latter season. He obviously has more ability than he’s shown, but he’s likely nothing more than a back of the rotation starter on a contender. Regardless, without some serious immediate improvement, a demotion to AAA Rochester is likely on the horizon. Paging Nick Blackburn. #p2c Originally published on pitching.2.contact
  12. From diamond in the rough to just plain rough. For Twins starter Scott Diamond, it’s been a tale of two seasons. One of the lone bright spots on a 2012 Twins team that lost 96 games en route to a second straight last place finish in the AL Central, Diamond managed to go 12-9 with a 3.54 ERA over 173 IP, good enough for 2.3/2.4 WAR depending on your preference. Heading into the offseason, he was the only Twins starter assured of a spot in the 2013 rotation, and was generally expected to be the staff ace in just his second full season in the bigs. And then 2013 happened. Diamond started the season on the DL following minor offseason elbow surgery, and things have been ugly since his return. Following his most recent shellacking Sunday against the Indians in which he lasted just 4.2 innings, Diamond is now 5-9 while sporting a 5.53 ERA. The southpaw has been terrible against lefties (.343/.398/.646), and not much better against righties (.301/.344/.476). He has completed six innings in just 2 of his last 13 appearances, and opponents are slashing a ridiculous .452/.520/.845 against him the third time through the lineup. He’s been bad on the road, and even worse at Target Field. Simply put, he’s been ****ty no matter how you cut it. So what the hell happened? A closer look at Diamond’s 2012 numbers reveal that he probably wasn’t as good as his peripherals would indicate; his 3.94 FIP and 3.93 xFIP suggest his ERA should have been about a half a run higher than it was. He compensated for a severe lack of strikeouts with a solid BABIP and strand rate, by inducing a lot of ground balls, and by walking almost no one. In short, Diamond probably pitched about as well as anyone could have hoped given his lack of pedigree and merely average stuff, and some regression should have been expected. Enter regression. Diamond’s 2013 numbers are significantly worse across the board. Not surprisingly, his BABIP (.319 vs. .292) and strand rate (67.4% vs. 73.3%) have come back to earth. He is also inducing far fewer groundballs (46.2% vs. 53.4%), and fly balls are leaving the park at a much higher rate (14.2% vs. 11.4%). Further, his already low strikeout rate (4.68/9) is now the worst in MLB (4.03/9), and it has been accompanied by an increase in walks (2.53/9 vs. 1.61/9). It all adds up to a 5.20 FIP and 4.68 xFIP, which somehow are actually better than his league-worst ERA. In looking at his PITCHf/x data, Diamond’s problems appear to stem from the reduced effectiveness of his curveball. Easily his best pitch in terms of pitch value in 2012 (3.3 runs above average), it has become been a net negative pitch in 2013 (-5.5). Perhaps as a result, Diamond is throwing it much less often this season (23.9% down from 29.0%). Those curveballs have become fastballs in 2013, and unfortunately, Diamond’s fastball is nothing to write home about. In fact, it produced negative value last year (-3.7) and has been even worse this year (-9.6), likely due in part to a slight decrease in velocity (88.3 vs. 89.3). Looking at Diamond’s release points on Brooks Baseball (and with the obvious caveat that I am a pitching novice), it appears that he’s not getting on top of the ball as well this year. His curveball also appears to have flattened out since last season, with more horizontal but less vertical break. Whatever the reason, his new approach has rendered him ineffective as a starter this season. So which is the real version of Diamond: 2012 or 2013? Truthfully, the answer probably lies somewhere in between, though I lean more towards the latter season. He obviously has more ability than he’s shown, but he’s likely nothing more than a back of the rotation starter on a contender. Regardless, without some serious immediate improvement, a demotion to AAA Rochester is likely on the horizon. Paging Nick Blackburn. #p2c Originally published on pitching.2.contact
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