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Steve Lein

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Everything posted by Steve Lein

  1. Steve Lein
    There literally is a 2.5% percent difference in the "random" amount of opportunities each had in those numbers above. That is nothing in this context. All these numbers say is over the course of that season, Dunn was more successful at producing runs for his team than Mauer. And it is factually undeniable. To Seth: Sorry! I wasn't even paying attention to the article topic. And this is just stuff I find interesting in relation to Mauer. Not bashing. I always get accused of that! I already said Mauer is "great" in several ways before this.
  2. Steve Lein
    I know it's flawed for such reasons, but is the most blunt force way possible of looking at it. A full season is a pretty good sample size, and the bigger the sampling size you take, the more such conditions normalize and deviations become negligible between two sets.
  3. Steve Lein
    Right. What I'm saying is you want that guy to be more aggressive in these situations. I don't think Mauer is.
  4. Steve Lein
    This is the calculation I made: Plate Appearances: Mauer - 641 Dunn - 649 Plate Appearances with no runners on (variable "A"): Mauer - 325 Dunn - 360 Plate Appearances with one runner on base (variable "B"): Mauer - 225 Dunn - 208 Plate Appearances with two runners on base (Variable "C"): Mauer - 84 Dunn - 72 Plate Appearances with bases loaded (Variable "D"): Mauer - 7 Dunn - 9 Runs Batted In (Variable "R"): Mauer - 85 Dunn - 96 Percentage of Total Possible Runs Produced = R / [A + (B*2) + (C*3) + (D*4)]: Mauer - 85/1055 = 8.0% Dunn - 96/1028 = 9.3%
  5. Steve Lein
    I understand and get the point of the first paragraph, but I want my best hitter doing whatever he can to bring runs in, instead of passing it along to the next guy. Runs are what win games, not putting another duck on the pond. And I'm gonna blow up the second paragraph because I've done research on this topic, just never have published it. Was more geared to make the argument Mauer should bat 2nd instead of 3rd, but works here too. For that research, the season was 2012 that I looked at. I took the primary #3 hitter from every team in baseball to compare against Mauer. Mauer has an excellent batting line with RISP over his career, however, that hasn't translated to even what I'd call average run production. Reason being? He doesn't hit a ton of XBH's in those situations, and draws a lot of walks. Lots of singles not scoring a guy from 2nd, lack of doubles to score a speedy runner from 1st, etc... He was very high in categories like batting average (tied for 4th) and on-base percentage (2nd), but much lower in things like HR's (28th of 30), RBI's (15th of 30), and slugging (24th of 30). His OPS of .861 was barely above the average of .851 for these players. One calculation I did was a percentage of possible runs these players produced. Based on RBI's and how many possible runners could have scored depending on the what the player did in that at bat. This calculation included the possibilty of a HR. I can't find that full spreadsheet for all 30 players, but my memory is telling me he was dead last in this calculation. I was able to find another sheet though, comparing him against Adam Dunn for this calculation that year. I don't know how to demonstrate this idea any better: Adam Dunn and his .204 overall batting average on the season produced a higher percentage of possible runs while up to bat (9.3% vs 8.0%) than Mauer did while batting .319. I'll repeat, Adam Dunn was a better overall run producer by batting .204 than Mauer was by batting .319.
  6. Steve Lein
    This is one of my exact criticisms of Mauer. For as good of a hitter as he is, he has always been way too passive in RBI producing situations. He treats it the same as any other at-bat, and primarily works the count to get on-base if he can. He takes too many walks just like Votto. This is also a reason where I'm not necessarily in the camp that always defends Mauer's abilities as an 'elite' player. His skill set relies a lot on the other players in the lineup to make him truly stand out (outside of his MVP season). In this way I tend to argue with the people who call others idiots for pointing out his flaws. Mauer is definitely a great player, but it's a different kind of great than they are trying to defend, in my opinion.
  7. Steve Lein
    I don't think he was throwing harder in HS, but scouts saw all kinds of projection. I seem to remember 87-90 MPH range back then. Believe he's bumped that up a few ticks to be in the 90's, with the potential to continue to grow into the mid-90's.
  8. Steve Lein
    Walker scored a lot of runs because of the HR's. Harrison had 3 HR's, yet scored more runs than Walker due to the drastic difference in on-base percentage and number of balls he put in play. You are absolutely right though, improvement in contact could make him a crazy good RBI producer Was talking about pitcher Jake Reed, and thus referencing the former Viking. q; ) .
  9. Steve Lein
    This is one idea about RBI's I love to look at, basically what percentage of possible baserunners-only did a guy bring in? Wrote about this in another thread, that Adam Walker at Fort Myers last year had all those home runs and RBI's, but if you made the calculations, Travis Harrison was successful at a higher percentage for bringing possible baserunners in to score. If I look at this for Hunter vs. Mauer vs. Dozier, last year, this is what I find: Hunter: 17.8% Mauer: 15.1% Dozier: 12.0% Dozier had 400 total baserunner's on base to drive in during the season. Hunter 370. Mauer 337. Mauer had 81 plate appearances with 2 or more runners on base. Dozier and Hunter each had 95. Mauer had 146 plate appearances with RISP. Dozier 196. Hunter 167. Mauer played 120 games. Dozier 156. Hunter 135. This stuff fascinates me.
  10. Steve Lein
    This is one of my issues. And don't get me wrong, Joe has a great approach that definitely has served him well until recently when his K numbers have climbed. The problem I have with that, is that he uses the same approach for every single at-bat. Doesn't matter the situation or the pitcher he is facing. It's almost literally the exact same thing, every time. That's exactly the type of thing pitchers can adapt to, and in some ways have, such as with the first pitch down broadway stuff. If they know that 95% of the time Joe isn't going to swing at it (5% is exactly his career rate for putting first pitches in play), that's a pretty safe bet to get ahead of him 0-1, and quite possibly a direct correlation to that increase in K's. Also with the first pitch strike stuff, it comes up that this almost all of the time, is going to be the best pitch he's going to see in the entire at-bat. It's criminal to me to ignore that, especially if it's a situation where there's guys on base to drive in. I'm all for this if he want's to feel out the pitcher in say his first at-bat. But in subsequent at-bats, he shouldn't have to, but still uses this same approach. It's also interesting to me that when Joe does swing at that first pitch, his batting average is the highest of any ball/strike count over his career. I think that putting the ball in play number needs to climb higher than 5% on first pitches the way pitchers are treating him now, and he would benefit greatly from it. All that said, if Joe does bounce back, it's a non-issue. But that's why these questions come up.
  11. Steve Lein
    Yeah, Giolito was a top 3 pick all season, until he blew his elbow and had to have Tommy John surgery. The Nationals took the flier on him at pick 16, and were able to get something done by going over the slot.
  12. Steve Lein
    Yeah, Hamels is a guy your going to have to put together an offer full of top 10 prospects to even get anywhere in talks. Buxton or Sano would get those conversatios going in a serious direction, then it's going to take a Meyer or Stewart and someone in the top 7-10 range, and probably something else to get it done. You take Buxton or Sano out of the conversation, then it becomes a Meyer or Stewart, and May, and Polanco type, and something else. Either of those are too rich for my blood.
  13. Steve Lein
    Yeah, definitely lacks a position, but think that bat is top 5-ish in the system.
  14. Steve Lein
    Wonder how far up this list Minier will go after mashing in E-town this year... I'd have him higher, but hard to argue since he's just getting started stateside.
  15. Steve Lein
    In addition to rolling out their 2015 top 100 this week, MLB.com writer Jim Callis also put out an article discussing the Top Tools in the minors: http://m.mlb.com/news/article/107759988/jim-callis-best-tools-of-top-100-prospects-list Byron Buxton was recognized in several categories, including best hitter, strongest arm, best defender, and took the top spot in the fastest baserunner category. Miguel Sano is honorable mention for best power, and Alex Meyer got honorable mention for best slider.
  16. Steve Lein
    No, a lot of this is true, but I think it would have been advantageous for Walker to learn the lessons he (hopefully) did in the FSL sooner, as I tend to think he would have done the same in the FSL in his first full year, as he did in 2014 (due to his experience level), and he'd be a year further in his development at this point because of it. My main reason for thinking this way, Mike touches on here: It's the same thing for a guy like Nick Burdi to me. Every single profile you could read about him before that draft said something along the lines of "He's a guy you can draft and send to AA right away." The Twins sent him to Cedar Rapids. Aside from his first outing, Burdi blew everyone away in the MWL and FSL. Did they, or he, really learn anything they didn't already know by doing that? Seems like a waste of time to me.
  17. Steve Lein
    Law looks at Walker like I do, in that he never should have been in the rookie leagues or low-a ball to begin (which can be argued, obviously). Law isn't impressed by his HR numbers because that's what he would expect out of him against the lesser experienced competition he was facing. Add in the fact Walker hit .246 last year and he comes away unimpressed. I think we'll know a lot more about him in AA this year.
  18. Steve Lein
    Well, I wouldn't go that far, he was certainly praised for his athleticsim. Keith Law, for example, rated him as the #10 prospect in baseball before the 2011 season (http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/insider/columns/story?page=LawTop100Prospects1-25): His profile: "Hicks took a step forward in 2010 by converting his tools into baseball performance. He's a true five-tool player, with an 80 arm in the outfield, above-average speed, future plus power and excellent bat speed. He's much smoother hitting right-handed, with better balance and weight transfer, and it showed this year in his platoon split, as he hit just .248/.383/.339 against right-handers even though he was repeating the level. His plate discipline continues to improve, and there's plenty of leverage in there for power when he fills out, but the inability to hit right-handed pitching is a major concern that will have to be addressed, perhaps by having him give up switch-hitting if it doesn't improve. On tools alone, Hicks is a top-5 prospect in the game, and I still expect him to become a star, but there's some risk here and I can understand why the Twins are taking it a little slow with him." Sounds pretty similar to me, but you are right there is a difference. Also going back the the Hunter mentor thing, this article is up on mlb.com today: http://m.twins.mlb.com/news/article/107814252/torii-hunter-to-mentor-minnesota-twins-young-outfielders
  19. Steve Lein
    Also, on the "leave Arcia in RF, put Torii in LF" argument. I don't think it's about their lack of faith in Arcia improving in RF, but more on what they think each brings to the table in the OF To me, you can classify OF defenders in two categories, fundamentally: 1. Those with good instincts who can put there head down and run to a spot. And, 2. Those who have to constantly track the ball with their eyes. Based on Torii's gold glove CF defense in his early career, I'd say he's in category #1, even though he's lost that range with age. Also with that CF defense, comes the experience of moving in both directions to track down fly balls. There's no doubt that Arcia is in category #2, and isn't that great with his limited speed and instincts to begin with. Now, drawing from personal experience, as a right-handed player (glove on my left hand), even though I played both corner OF spots in my playing days, I always preferred being in left field because I was category #2, and it was easier for me to track balls moving to my glove side, toward the gap where most balls are hit. Maybe that's what they see happening with Arcia, that he'll do better because he'll be chasing more balls in that direction than he would in RF, while Hunter shouldn't have any issues with that, no matter which corner he plays. As a sidenote to this thought as well, Hicks often times got questioned for his effort running down fly balls because it seemed like he would 'jog' after them. Well, if he's in category #2 above (which I think he is more than #1), I can also say that when you do this, the natural thing your body/mind does is equalize your route and speed, so that your glove gets to the ball is going at the exact point you will catch it. Granted, you don't want to do this all the time, such as when you need to set up to make a throw, but I never thought it was from a lack of effort from Hicks.
  20. Steve Lein
    I think something that is overlooked when we say things like "better in center field defensively than [whomever]" for a prospect, we forget one fact as related to the majors compared to the minors: The stadiums are much bigger. Hicks was touted similarly to how Buxton is now for his defense and arm coming up through the minors. I think it's safe to say we've been underwhelmed at this point by Hicks out in CF, though I don't think he's been bad either. What I'm getting at with the stadiums, is in the Minors, there is very rarely (if ever) that large 2nd or 3rd deck of stands above the lower-level, whereas they exist in every stadium in the majors. I think it takes some time to adjust to tracking a ball against the stands and the fans in the seats as compared to open skies like in the minors. Not really trying to make a point here, just something I find interesting when a guy comes up to the majors for the first time, and they don't always show the competency you read about.
  21. Steve Lein
    Yeah, which says to me Berrios doesn't have the same ceiling, and they see the difference in "stuff." I'm not the biggest fan of MLB.com's either, but they include information like that, that other sites don't. I don't subscribe to BA, BP, ESPN insider, and others for no reason! Baseball America has Berrios at #3, ahead of Stewart (#4) and Meyer (#5), by the way, saying "If he continues to progress, then he projects as a No. 3 starter." On Stewart they say: "if he can miss more bats and stay off the DL he could reach a ceiling as a No. 2 starter."
  22. Steve Lein
    He wasn't ranked, may have just missed. But I do agree it seems a bit stubborn after last year. I think he sees him as (and I do too) a poor man's Yordano Ventura, who he had at #50 going into last year and he voiced the same height and FB plane issues with.
  23. Steve Lein
    I'm with Law. Stewart was primarily working on his FB command the entire season, and basically never used his best strikeout pitch, the slider. And guess what? He was pretty good just doing that (2.59 ERA, 1.13 WHIP). He'll get to ramp that up this year. I still love Kepler, think this is the make or break year. I'd bet on him "making." It's not that his pitches are "more developed," it's that they are better. Better velocity, better plane, better movement. The only thing holding him back (according to the Twins) is that (because he's so tall) he can lose his mechanics, leading to walks. I don't think they hurt him as much as the Twins would lead you to believe, because he also racks up those K's. Just for fun, here is MLB.com's scouting grades on their pitches, etc...: Meyer: Fastball: 70 | Slider: 65 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 45 | Overall: 60 Stewart: Fastball: 70 | Curveball: 55 | Slider: 65 | Changeup: 55 | Control: 55 | Overall: 60 Berrios: Fastball: 60 | Curveball: 55 | Changeup: 55 | Control: 50 | Overall: 60
  24. Steve Lein
    I like the information Kiley pull's more than his rankings of prospects on lists, I've found. Lot's of good stuff from him though. I still would rank Berrios behind Meyer and Stewart on my list. He's closer to them after last season, but I sill like Meyer and Stewart's "stuff" way better. Berrios is going to have a few "above average" pitches if you believe everything you read, whereas Meyer and Stewart may have multiple "plus" to "plus-plus" pitches. Berrios does get the higher marks on command and things like work ethic, but that doesn't push him above guys with better stuff for me.
  25. Steve Lein
    Yeah, he's basically saying that again here to justify how low he has him I think. The direct quote is: "I've always had a sense Berrios' height and lack of life or plane on his fastball would push him to the bullpen."
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