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William Malone

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Blog Entries posted by William Malone

  1. William Malone

    Twins vs the over/under

    By William Malone,


    Betting the Twins
    Hello, fellow humans! My name is William Malone IV. Son of William Malone III. And I come with great news! Spring training baseball is finally here. That means regular season baseball is right around the corner.
    The Minnesota Twins enter this year with an over/under of 84.5, according to DraftKings. This is the 12th highest over/under total in the league, and the highest among AL Central teams. But we all know these games are not played by Las Vegas projections. They are played by human beings on a baseball field. With that in mind, let's see how the Twins have done against their over/under projections during the Target Field-era.
    2024 - 85.5 (Under, 82)
    The Twins seemed destined to blow right past their over/under total of 85.5 in 2024. They were sitting at 70-53 on August 18th, which is a 92 win pace. But then Jorge Alcala had arguably the worst outing of his career, blowing a four run lead and costing his team a chance to sweep the defending champion Texas Rangers. Things spiraled from there, and the Twins only finished with 82 wins.
    2023 - 83.5 (Over, 87)
    While it seemed like the 2024 Twins were destined to go over their total, the 2023 Twins were the opposite. They were below .500 at the All-Star break, and things didn't get much better after play resumed. Minnesota rode a five game losing streak into the month of August, which included a sweep at the hands of last place Kansas City. But the Twins went 33-22 from August 1st onward, comfortably winning the AL Central by nine games and clearing their 83.5 total.
    2022 - 80.5 (Under, 78)
    There's starting to be a pattern of the over/under race flipping due to a late season surge or collapse. A late season surge saved the Twins in 2023. It sank them in 2024. 2022 was the sinking variety.  Minnesota played at an 87 win pace in the first half, and they held a 3.5 game lead in the AL Central. They were still playing at an 84 win pace when August ended, but they had fallen out of first place by then. September was their worst month yet, and the club finished 78-84.
    2021 - 89.5 (Under, 73)
    2021 is probably the Twins most disappointing season, based on preseason expectations. They had won 101 games in 2019, and played at a 97 win pace during the COVID shortened 2020 season. But things were ugly from the start for Minnesota in 2021. They were 9-15 in April, and never fully recovered. This led to Jose Berrios and Nelson Cruz being shown the door at the deadline. Oddly, they played a little better after the deadline to help avoid a 90 loss season. The Twins went 30-28 after the deadline. But it was too little, too late.
    2020 - 34.5 (Over, 36)
    The shortened COVID year was weird. There's probably not much you remember from it, unless you're a Dodgers fan. For reference, 34 wins over 60 games is a 92 win pace. The Twins 36-24 record means they played at a 97 win pace. Minnesota played jump rope with their over/under line all season, pushing themselves over by winning five of their final seven. Before that seven game stretch, they had lost four of five. They were as hot and cold as a team can be over a shortened 60 game sprint. This also included a six game losing streak in late August.
    2019 - 84.5 (Over, 101)
    Slugging a Major League record 307 home runs is a good way to blow 17 wins by your preseason over/under projection. Minnesota hit this mark on September 2nd with a thrilling come from behind win over Detroit. Max Kepler decided home runs were boring, and delivered a two run single in the eighth inning to help his club pull a head that night. Over bettors were able to finally cash their tickets, but it was a result that had felt safe for a few months at that point.
    2018 - 82.5 (Under, 78)
    Minnesota went to the playoffs in 2017, but a lot of their off-season moves blew up in their face. Logan Morrison wasn't the DH upgrade they expected, and Lance Lynn wasn't able to strengthen the rotation. Ervin Santana going down with a finger injury in spring training didn't help matters, and Jorge Polanco missed 80 games due to a failed drug test.
    2017 - 70.5 (Over, 85)
    Fans had no reason to be optomisct heading into 2017. The Twins had lost 103 games in 2016, and followed it up with a quiet off-season. Jason Castro and Matt Belisle were the only players they added on Major League deals. Many saw Castro as a downgrade to the departing Kurt Suzuki. 70.5 was the third lowest total in the league, only ahead of the Padres and Athletics. And then look what happened? They won 85 games and wound up in the Wild Card Game. Baseball is funny sometimes!
    2016 - 78.5 (Under, 59)
    No surprise that the worst season in Minnesota Twins history saw the club fall short of their over/under total. It's the eighth worst season if you include the Senators. They had some really lean years while in Washington. Those guys once had a 114 loss season...and they didn't even start playing 162 games until the 60's when the franchise had already moved to the Midwest.
    2015 - 72.5 (Over, 83)
    After four straight 90+ loss seasons, the Twins didn't deserve to have a high over/under total. And maybe the 2015 Twins weren't much better than the 2011-14 teams, but they rode a crazy hot month of May to a winning record. That was actually their only winning month in 2015, but they went 20-7. This gave the Twins a nice cushion to coast to an 83-79 record. Minnesota was mathematically alive for a wild card spot as last as the 161st game, but it wasn't meant to be.
    2014 - 70.5 (Under, 70)
    Bettors were certainly stressing out the 2014 Twins down to the very end. They were sitting at 69-91 with a series against the first place Detroit Tigers heading into the final weekend of the season. Minnesota needed a sweep to finish over 70.5 wins. They won the first two, setting up a season finale for all the marbles. And then the Tigers put their foot down, winning 3-0. These games actually mattered for Detroit too. The AL Central race between Detroit and Kansas City came down to the final day, mostly because the Twins had played spoiler in those first two games.
    2013 - 70.5 (Under, 66)
    Much like 2024 or 2022, this is another year where a late season collapse caused the Twins to fall short of their over/under total. Except this time, it didn't cost them a playoff spot in the process. They went 3-17 in their final 20 games. All they needed to go was go 8-12 to hit 71 wins. There was also a 1-12 stretch in late June/early July, and a ten game losing streak in May. Those three stretches add up to a 4-39 record, which is a 15-147 pace. So there were obviously some good stretches too if they were flirting with 70 wins.
    2012 - 74.5 (Under, 66)
    There was some hope that the 99 loss season in 2011 was a fluke. After all, Minnesota had won the AL Central in 2009 and 2010. They also lost a tiebreaker game for the division crown in 2008. Hall of Fame catcher Joe Mauer bounced back strong from the infamous bilateral leg weakness, leading the American League with a .416 on-base percentage. But they needed more than one person to have a bounce back year, which didn't happen.
    2011 - 87.5 (Under, 63)
    As you just read in the 2012 section, the 2011 Twins were a giant disappointment. Ron Gardenhire had won six division titles and suffered just one losing season in his first nine years as Twins manager, but that era was over. There's a lot of blame to go around. "Piranha ball" wasn't working as well in a league that was becoming more and more analytical. Big boppers such as Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau were non-factors. While Mauer bounced back to his All-Star form in future seasons, Morneau never did.
    2010 - 83.5 (Over 94)
    Everyone knew the 2010 Twins were going to hit, but pitching was a huge question. Carl Pavano and Francisco Lirano delivered in a big way. Liriano actually got Cy Young votes and won AL Comeback Player of the Year. It was the season Twins fans had been waiting for since his 2006 injury. Pavano went 17-11 with a 3.75 ERA, which was a huge upgrade over his 5.10 ERA for a year earlier (4.64 in 12 post-deadline starts with Twins). You could've made a Comeback Player of the Year case for him as well.
  2. William Malone

    Remembering Random Twins - Wilkin Ramírez

    By William Malone,


    Remembering Random Twins
    Career minor leaguer Wilkin Ramírez had three cups of coffee in the bigs. He played 15 games for the Tigers in 2009, 20 with the Braves in 2011, and 35 with the Minnesota Twins in 2013.
    Ramírez came to the Twins organization ahead of the 2012 season, batting .288 with 19 home runs and 61 RBI over 113 minor league games. He hit .404 with ten doubles in 57 at-bats during spring training in 2013, which earned him an Opening Day roster spot.
    This was the best opportunity a team had ever given Ramírez at the Major League level, and things got off to a great start. His red hot spring carried over into the regular season. In a fourth outfielder role, he hit .381 with four RBI during April. But then health became an issue. Ramírez cooled off a bit in May, then had to miss 71 games due to concussion-like symptoms.
    He returned to the diamond from his concussion in mid-August, and began to re-capture some of his April magic. Ramírez recorded a hit in nine of his first 12 games back, including two multi-hit games. But a fractured fibula on August 29th ended his season, and effectively his big league career.
    The Twins removed Ramírez from the 40-man roster during the offseason. He re-signed with the club on a minor league deal, and spent the entire 2014 and 2015 seasons with Triple-A Rochester. Ramírez spent 2016 with the Bridgeport Bluefish of the Atlantic League, and then retired from professional baseball.
  3. William Malone

    Remembering Random Twins - Henry Blanco

    By William Malone,


    Remembering Random Twins
    Henry Blanco was your classic journeyman backup catcher. Known for his glove, he hit just .223 over a 16 year career that was spent with 11 different teams.
    Minnesota signed Blanco to a one year deal in December 2003. The expectation was that he would be the number two catcher behind top prospect Joe Mauer, who made his Major League debut on Opening Day in 2004. But a knee injury limited Mauer to just 35 games that season, and Blanco wound up playing a career high 114 games that season.
    As expected, Blanco did very little with the bat. He slashed just .206/.260/.368 (.628). This came with a career high ten home runs and 37 RBI, but that was partly due to the fact that 2004 was the only season where he appeared in at least 100 games. His defense provided a lot of value though, as Blanco threw out an American League best 49.1% of base stealers.
    Blanco drove in two runs during the 2004 ALDS against the Yankees. He had a sacrifice fly in game two off Jon Lieber, and launched a solo homer off Javier Vazquez in game four. They’re the only two RBI of his postseason career. His teams did reach October a handful of times, but this was the only instance where he was getting regular playing time. The only other playoff start he had came in game three of the 2002 NLDS when the Braves had to scratch Javy Lopez late.
    He is now a member of the coaching ranks. Blanco currently the role of “catching and strategy coach” with the Nationals. Blanco has also been a coach with the Cubs and Diamondbacks, with various roles and titles with each club. He has two World Series rings as a coach, winning it all with the Cubs in 2016 and the Nationals in 2019.
  4. William Malone

    Remembering Random Twins - Héctor Carrasco

    By William Malone,


    Remembering Random Twins
    Journeyman reliever Héctor Carrasco pitched for 12 seasons in the Major Leagues, which included two stints with the Minnesota Twins. He also played for the Reds, Angels, Royals, Red Sox, Nationals, and Orioles.
    Carrasco first came to Minnesota through waivers just before the 1998 season. The Diamondbacks had selected him from Kansas City in the expansion draft that winter, but he waived right before Opening Day and the Twins picked him up. He went 4-2 with a 4.38 ERA and a save over 63 relief appearances in 1998. His 1.719 WHIP was the worst among any big league pitcher with at least 60 appearances that season. 1999 and 2000 weren’t that much better for Carrasco. His biggest highlight in a Twins uniform might be surrendering Cal Ripkin’s 3,000th hit early in the 2000 season.
    Minnesota was able to trade Carrasco to Boston late in 2000. The return was a lottery ticket Single-A outfield prospect who had been a 12th round pick. Nobody really expects much from a trade like this. There are zero expectations for these moves to wind up producing a big league player. But this one did. The lottery ticket prospect was Metrodome fan favorite Lew Ford.
    After pitching just eight games with the Red Sox, Carrasco returned to the Twins as a free agent that next offseason. He posted a 4.64 ERA over 56 appearances with the Twins in 2001. Over four seasons in Minnesota, Carrasco had a 4.53 ERA with four saves across 219 games.
    He would keep pitching in the Majors through 2007. His career year came in 2005, when he had a 2.05 ERA over 64 games with the Nationals. Carrasco continued to pitch professionally until 2012, spending time in the Atlantic League and the Mexican League.
  5. William Malone

    Remembering Random Twins - Darnell McDonald

    By William Malone,


    Remembering Random Twins
    The Baltimore Orioles took Darnell McDonald with the 26th overall pick in 1997, but he never really found his footing in the Majors until 2009 at age 30 with Cincinnati. This long path included a four game cup of coffee with the Twins in 2007.
    He did debut with the Orioles in 2004, but played just 17 games for them. McDonald spent time in the Guardians, Devil Rays, and Nationals systems on minor league deals after being released by Baltimore. Washington traded him to the Twins in June 2007 for the right to keep Rule-5 Draft pick Levale Speigner after taking him off the 25-man roster. McDonald went 1-for-10 with a walk in four appearances with Minnesota over four games in July 2007. He became a free agent after the season.
    2008 was another year of exclusive minor league action for McDonald, but he got his first extended Major League look with the Reds in 2009. McDonald appeared in 47 games for Cincinnati, batting .267 and hitting his first big league homer off a 21-year old Clayton Kershaw.
    This was followed up by a career year with the Red Sox in 2010. McDonald played in 117 games for Boston that season, getting to start in centerfield for an extended period of time after Jacoby Ellsbury was injured. He stuck around with the Red Sox as a fourth outfielder until getting waived in July 2012. McDonald had brief stints with the Yankees and Cubs, retiring after the 2013 season.
    McDonald coached in the Cubs minor league system for a little bit, but he has since moved to broadcasting. NESN, the Red Sox television partner, hired him as a studio analyst ahead of the 2023 season.
  6. William Malone

    Remembering Random Twins - Justin Huber

    By William Malone,


    Remembering Random Twins
    Justin Huber was a highly regarded prospect who never panned out.
    He peaked as the 66th ranked prospect, according to Baseball America, and the Australian native played on “Team World” in the Futures Game three times. Some of his prospect value deteriorated after a string of minor league knee injuries forced him to move from catcher to first base, but Huber was still able to break into the Majors with Kansas City in 2005.
    Things never clicked for him in the bigs, and he began to bounce around a bit. He wound up in the Twins system on a minor league contract in 2009, and he led Triple-A Rochester with 22 home runs and 76 RBI that season. Minnesota rewarded him with a 40-man spot and a September call-up opportunity late in the year, and he went 1-for-2 coming off the bench late in one blowout loss. It was his only game with the Twins, and the final appearance of his Major League career.
    Minnesota brought him back for spring training in 2010, but DFA’d him to clear up 40-man space for other players as part of their final roster decisions. Huber played the 2010 season in Japan, spent 2011 in the Atlantic League, then continued to play professionally in his native Australia through 2015.
  7. William Malone

    Remembering Random Twins - Dillon Gee

    By William Malone,


    Remembering Random Twins
    Dillon Gee was the 2017 version of what Dallas Keuchel did for the Twins in 2023. In fact, he was probably a little bit better. While he didn’t have quite the same name value, Gee was still a  veteran in his 30’s who provided value as an innings eater late in the season after impressing at Triple-A on a minor league deal.
    Gee had a solid 3.91 ERA over 103 starts with the Mets from 2010-14, but he struggled out of the gate in 2015 before getting buried by a crop of young Mets starters. He sat there and watched as New York reached the World Series in 2015, and then he began to bounce around the league a bit.
    Minnesota signed him to a minor league deal on June 22, 2017. Triple-A Rochester seemed almost too easy for Gee. He made five starts there, allowing zero runs in three of them. The Twins called him up in early August, and he jumped into a hybrid pitching role. Whatever they needed that day, Gee would take on that challenge. Starting pitcher, close games, blowouts, short relief, long relief, save situations, entering a clean inning or with runners on base. Gee did it all for the Twins.
    Gee made three starts and was called on for 11 relief appearances during his two months in Minnesota, posting a 3.22 ERA over 36.1 innings. He went 3-2 with a save and a hold. This helped Minnesota earn the second AL wild card spot, getting them to the postseason for the first time since 2010.
    He signed with the Chunichi Dragons of the NBP in the off-season, posting a 4.00 ERA during his one season in Japan. Gee then retired after the 2018 season.
     
  8. William Malone

    Remembering Random Twins - Randy Flores

    By William Malone,


    Remembering Random Twins
    Randy Flores was a late August waiver claim by the Twins in 2010, and that began the final chapter of his Major League career. 
    He was a ninth round pick by the Yankees in 1997, and debuted with the Rangers on April 23, 2002. Flores spent most of his big league career with the Cardinals, and also had two stints with the Rockies. As a lefty specialist, he threw under ten pitches in 162 of his 350 appearances (46.2%). This includes 12 occasions where Flores threw just one pitch.
    Despite posting a 5.62 ERA during 65 regular season appearances for the Cardinals in 2006, he came up big during their World Series run. Flores didn’t allow a run over 5.2 innings that fall, appearing in seven games. His biggest moment came in game seven of the 2006 NLCS against the Mets. He retired Carlos Delgado, David Wright, and Shawn Green in order with the score tied at one in the eighth inning. Flores had entered with a runner on first base, after Jeff Suppan walked Carlos Beltran to open the inning.
    Flores covered just 3.2 innings over his 11 appearances with the Twins, not even recording an out on three occasions. He had three holds, and allowed a walk-off single against the Tigers on September 25th after inheriting a bases loaded jam that Pat Neshek left for him.
    The Twins left Flores off their playoff roster, and signed a minor league contract with San Diego during the off-season. He pitched 58 games in Triple-A for three different organizations during the 2011 season, then retired from professional baseball.
    Flores began a broadcasting career after retiring, doing radio broadcasts at USC while pursuing a master’s degree. ESPN also used him on-air during NCAA tournament broadcasts. He launched a startup company called OnDeckDigital in 2015, which helps scouts evaluate players through video capture technology. The Cardinals hired him to be their Director of Scouting in August 2015. He is currently the team’s assistant general manager.
  9. William Malone

    Remembering Random Twins - Sam Fuld

    By William Malone,


    Remembering Random Twins
    Minnesota acquired veteran outfielder Sam Fuld off of waivers from the Athletics very early in the 2014 season. The 32-year old was hitting just .200 through seven games with Oakland, and carried a career OPS+ of 79.
    Fuld then began to play some of his best baseball during his time with the Twins. He collected two hits in his Twins debut, including an RBI single against Rays reliever Brandon Gomes. That was followed up by two more multi-hit games, and a five game hitting streak to begin his Twins tenure. Fuld quickly became the team’s regular centerfielder, replacing a struggling Aaron Hicks.
    He never hit for much power, but Fuld played good defense and had a .370 on-base percentage over 53 games in Minnesota. This is compared to the .307 OBP that Fuld sports for his eight year Major League career. His performance made him good enough to flip at the deadline. Ironically, the team who traded for him was the same team who had waived him in April. Oakland sent Tommy Milone back to the Twins for a guy they let leave for nothing just three months earlier.
    Fuld would remain in Oakland during the 2015 season, batting .197 over 120 games. That would be the end of his big league playing career. He slashed .227/.307/.325 (.632) over 598 games with the Cubs, Rays, Athletics, and Twins. Fuld was also worth 30 defensive runs saved in the outfield.
    The end of his playing career was not his final chapter in the Majors though. He was hired as the Phillies player information coordinator in 2017, and the industry immediately identified him as a rising front office star. The Blue Jays interviewed Fuld for their managerial job after the 2018 season, and he was seen as a strong candidate until withdrawing his name from consideration. Pittsburgh also showed interest in hiring Fuld as their general manager in 2019, but the job went to Ben Cherington instead.
    Philadelphia eventually did promote Fuld to general manager in December 2020, making him the number two man for President of Baseball Operations Dave Dombrowski.
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