mcrow

It's going to be interesting. If he has a monster 1st half and the Twins look like they are anywhere near competing for a playoff spot he probably stays. If the Twins are stinking it up he probably gets traded. They could be a in a real pickle if he's playing well and they are in contention nearing the end of July. It's unlikely but they could be in a position where they trade him while contending for a playoff spot and everyone is mad they tanked the season or they could be in the same situation and the team collapses in the second half and everyone will complain they should ahve gotten something for him.

True, but if I do the math right they are well below the $106M they for this year that would make the 50% mark of revenue. So, we really don't know if or when they'll really stick to that number.

I would say you are correct if we assume that the Twins will increase spending with the increased revenue. If they really intend to be in the $100M+ in the next couple seasons then maybe it makes sense. Budget or not I don't like Saunders for more than 2/$14 or so.

Well, I guess we'll see if the Twins really will be sticking to the 50% of revenue or not next year because if they're looking at having ~$240m in revenue next year with the new TV Deal then they sure as hell better be over $100M in payroll. I have my doubts on that point.

Yeah, which makes the extra money buy you less in the market than it would have this year.

Yes, I think the Twins more than anything, as far as pitching goes, need an ace and continuing to have "5 spots locked" just gives them cause not to splurg on a big time pitcher. Ideally some of the $25M from the TV deal would be used to try to snag a good SP but I'm not even sure who will be on the market at that point.

Oh...yeah forgot all about that. They better be increasing payroll then.

Where does the extra $25M come from? Just asking because I must have missed that.

Sure, assuming they stick to the 50% rule. However they are already below that for this season ($213m revenu in 2012) and we'll have to see what the revenue does in 2013 if they have another bad year when revenue stayed about the same last year as in 2011. In theory they should be around $105M this year. So they'd have to increase payroll/spending by $30-$40M over this year to get to those numbers if my math is right.

OK. Whatever. Obviously you're not allowed to post a dissenting opinion around here. lol.

Do you read? Where do I make conflicted statements? I said if he wants more than 2/14 then no that didn't change anywhere in either of the posts you quote. I could handle 2/14 but it sounds like he wants more than that in years and money.

God I hope they don't find a reason to sign him again...lol.

Yes, I can agree with that. Harden have some of the most dominant stuff in the league if he can stay healthy but that's pretty unlikely. Maybe in a 7th inning role or setup guy he can stay healthy.

No doubt about that, but on career as a whole Puckett was better. Hrbek is underrated outside of MN, IMO but still not HoF level.

Yes, I realize that Casilla is with the Orioles but I was just aying that him not being on the roster reduces the payroll. I don't think it would be a bad signing but just saying that if he wants 3 years $21-$24M it's not really worth it unless you think he's going to have trade value at the end of the season. I would certainly rather have Suanders at 2/14 than Correia for 2/10 but one of those two is done already and I can't see Correia really garnering much in a trade.

Yes, I did look at the future obligations. The $20M going off the books next year is Morneau and Blackburn, but are we so sure yet that we want to part ways with Morneau? If not we might need half of that to resign Morneau and then you have $7-$8M wrapped up in Saunders as well so now you're left with $2-$3M for FA signings otherwise and that's assuming the Twins plan to say at around $87M for payroll.

You guys really need to read what I said. We know that the Twins will be back to "managing" the budget. So while I think there is more money to be spend who knows what the front office thinks. I'm guessing they're not going be spending over $90M for a while which puts them in the middle of the league. If you have $20m coming off the books next year, $7-$8M is over 1/3 of that. Mourneau will be a FA, you might want to keep him around if this season goes well. Maybe there are better options to be had in 2014-2015 than Suanders. If you keep Morneau because he had a big year, and have Saunders on $8M you pretty well have decided not to do much in FA signings because the Twins are not going to be going to $100M+ any time soon. So you have to make these signings figuring that they'll looking for a payroll of $80-$90M the next year or two. So if we say they don't resign Morneau and drop Blackburn and Casilla they will have something like $21-$22M "off the books". Seems to me that counting on the Twins getting rid of Morneau isn't wise. The Twins seem fairly loyal to him and I think barring a total meltdown this year like he had the past two there's no way they don't resign him unless the salary he demands gets huge. All I'm saying is that Saunders may not fit the longterm goals of the team and if you have to commit to him for 3+ years and $24M I'm not sure it's really that great of signing. He may help this year but personally I would rather see some younger pitchers see some MLB time so we can see what the Twins have for the future. We have Gibson and some other younger pitchers that we need to find out about so the Twins can move forward. They have a lot of arms showing up at ST this year and I can't see where Saunders will be a sure to be significantly better than some of the other options they have.

IMO, regardless of the fiancial situation of the team you don't over spend and over commit to players unless there's really something on the line. What if there are some FA in the Twins sights next year or in 2015 and we have a useless (not saying Saunders is useless now) Saunders on the roster with a 3 year $23M contract? We all know the Twins budget will never be huge whether we think it should be or not so if you'd like to further hamstring the team with $7-$8m per year for 3+ years to Saunders then go ahead.

As always it depends on the price. For $7.5M per for more than 2 years.....no. If the Twins were a legit playoff contender and it is a win now sort of season then maybe to do it but the Twins are better served seeing what they have in some of the younger pitchers. If the younger pitchers don't show us much then maybe to look for more of a staff Ace in FA/Trade next year who is young.

At this point I don't see the value in having to commit to Saunders for multiple years. Very mediocre starter over 30 so offering multiple years for a rebuilding team would seem like a bad idea. Maybe you give him 2 years if the price is right but that's it.

Yeah, I'm not conviced Diamond will be as good as last year much less better. Hopefully he is and I'm wrong but I didn't see anything last year that leads me to believe he will be better this year.

Sore loser....

I would say all of the above. He's definitely a Twins great eventhough not a HoF type of player. There are just guys from that era of the Twins that will always give me the "good old days" feeling. Gaetti, Gagne, and Bruno are all players like that to a lesser degree as well.

Has to Kent Hrbek. Most of here are probably not old enough to remember much of the other guys. However, it's hard to argue against a guy that was part of two WS and the epic T-Rex tag.

It seems that once again the Twins have been at work picking up pitchers. It seems that their strategy this off-season is the shotgun method, throw volume at things and hope you hit something. So far the signings have been for veterans like Kevin Correia, Mike Pelfrey , and Rich Haren. Two of the three have very questionable health/durability issues and none of them could be considered more than a #3 or #4 starter on most MLB pitching staffs. It's clear that these moves are largely meant to bridge to the young arms like Kyle Gibson, Trevor May, Liam Hendriks, and perhaps Cole DeVries. At this point the starting rotation shakes out something like this: #1- Scott Diamond Age: 26 Size: 6'3" 220 Acquired: 2010 Rule 5 Draft (Atlanta) Diamond was a surprise to some last season given that he didn't have (you see a pattern?) great stuff. He throws a fairly straight, not very hard fastball (around 90) and solid change. His third and maybe best pitch is his curve-ball which is considered a plus pitch by some scouts. Diamond also started throwing a cut fastball more in 2012 which seems pretty effective in the right situation. Diamond is not a strikeout machine, only averaging 4.7 K/9 but the impressive part of his game is control. Diamond finished with an impressive 2.90 K/BB ratio last season showing that while he doesn't strike guys out he doesn't hand out many free passes either. Early projections for 2013 are that Diamond will see a rise in his ERA and K/9 so the overall season is predicted to regress. #2- Vance Worley Age: 25 Size: 6'2" 230 Acquired/Contract: Trade for OF Ben Revere, Twins also received SP Trevor May. Vance is going into his 3rd full season at the MLB level as a starting pitcher. After a very successful rookie year where he posted an 11-3 record it in 21 starts with a 3.01 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and 8 K/9 Worley was plagued with loose bodies in his elbow in his second year. Worley started out with an impressive April going 3-2 with a 1.97 ERA and averaged 9 K/9 innings. In May he was placed on the DL for elbow inflammation and came off the DL and again looked good June before the elbow flared up again and plagued him the rest of the season. Assuming Worley is healthy all season he could be in line for a breakout season. However, if the Twins just get a young arm who can eat up innings and be something of an anchor for the staff they will be more than happy. Worley is not known for his overpowering stuff or velocity, he has a fastball in the low 90's and has a solid change-up and curved but they are not outstanding. His real weapon seems to be the slider/cutter that breaks inside on a right handed hitter. #3-Kevin Correia Age: 32 Size: 6'3" 210 Acquired/Comtract: 2012 FA, 2 years $10m ($4.5m in 2013, $5.5m in 2014) The second spot in the rotation could really be either Correia or Diamond, but we'll give the nod to the veteran for these purposes.In a lot of ways Correia and Worley are similar. Neither are overpowering anyone with their fastball or has lights out stuff. However, Correia has less impressive stuff and less arm than Worley. Like Worley, Correia's best pitch is a his slider/cutter. Correia seems to most successful when he commands his slider well keeping it low and inside on righties and paints the outside with lefties. Correia may have a better curve than Worley ,which in the absence of a true out-pitch, that he uses as a secondary pitch when ahead in the count. Correia often has issues making it through the batting order multiple times due to the lack of overpowering stuff and often is all but done after 5 innings. Basically he's going to be good for 5-6 innings 20 of 28 starts last seasons went 5+ innings only 3 starts went 7+ innings with no complete games. However, considering the market and the urgent need for a starter of MLB level quality, the amount paid seems to be a favorable deal. #4- Mike Pelfrey Age: 28 Size: 6'7" 250 Acuired: Free Agent, 2012, 1 year $4 million. Plefry is a big, hard throwing pitcher with a fastball that touches 97 at times. His fastball also has good sinking movement on it and his by far his best pitch. He also throws a change, slider and curve though none of them are considered plus pitches. In April of 2012 Plefrey announced that he was going to have Tommy John Surgery and it ended his season. The good news is that Pelfrey does not have a history of being injury prone so there is hope that he can get back to being close to what he was in the past. However, it's going to be hard to predict how well he will fare in his first season back. Pelfrey was cleared to start throwing back in August and has been pitching every other day since then to college hitters at Wichita State. It is believed that his fastball is currently in the low 90's and getting stronger. There is some history of pitchers throwing harder after Tommy John than before but it normally takes a full year of throwing. The Twins have consulted with Pelfrey and they have agreed for him to take three weeks off before ramping up for spring training. If healthy and back to form Mike Plefrey can make a very good #4 starter who can put up an ERA between 3.80-4.50 and win the Twins 10-15 games. It's a huge if, but if it works out the Twins worked a good deal and if not they're only on the hook for this season. #5- Rich Harden, Cole De Vries, Kyle Gibson or Liam Hendriks The #5 spot int he lineup is pretty fluid right now. The Twins seem to really like both De Vries and Hendriks and they seem to be the most likely opening day #5 starters. They also still have Brian Duensing who has had chances to be a starter in the past. Sam Deduno also will be competing for a spot in the rotation. Nick Blackburn seems to get chance after chance to be a starter for this team but with the recent surgery he's not likely to be a factor.We also have to consider Kyle Gibson who is coming off of Tommy John Surgery and hasn't yet pitched at the MLB level. Newly acquired Trevor May who pitch in AA last season could possibly see the majors at some point in 2013 but is likely a year or two out. Perhaps the biggest wildcard here is Rich Harden who the Twins brought in for spring training. He's often injured but has dominant stuff that can pile up strikeouts in a hurry. If he appear to be healthy in spring training and pitching well he has to be the odds on favorite for the #5 spot. However, given the large number of arms competing for a starting spot if Mike Pelfrey should struggle another one of these players could end up in the rotation also. Terry Ryan has hinted at that Harden working out of the pen is the most likely scenario.