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troyjuhn

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Blog Entries posted by troyjuhn

  1. troyjuhn
    The Twins front office and scouting department have done a really good job in recent drafts in finding talent later on, essentially throwing darts at a lot of strike throwing, but low velocity pitchers and this draft class was no different. 
    Christian Beccera, Xavier Kolhosser, Jacob Kisting, Cole Peschl, Aidan Haugh, Michael Ross, Merit Jones and Logan Whittaker were 8 of the 10 picks the Twins made on day three, all that were starters at some point in College. Air Force third basemen Jay Thomason was the only position player taken. But the other player I've not mentioned up to this point is probably my favorite pick the Twins made in the late rounds. That being 11th round pick in LHP Michael Carpenter. Committed to Eastern Carolina as a JUCO transfer out of Madison College, Carpenter put up video game like numbers at just 19 years old. Carpenter was named an NJCAA All American after posting a 1.03 ERA and broke the school's single season record for strikeouts with 111 in 78.1 innings pitched with just 11 walks. He also threw 7 complete games. And just look at this stretch he went on in the middle of the season.
    In the 11th round in last year's draft, the Twins took Iowa RHP Ty Langdenberg, who was already promoted to Cedar Rapids this year after posting a 3.68 ERA at Fort Myers. Langdenberg is obviously a bit more polished, coming out of Iowa and also being older at 22 years old. Carpenter is intriging to me because of how young he is at just 19, a three-pitch mix that starts with a fastball that tops around 93 with what scouts describe as "deceptive".  It feels like that despite the level of competion that will jump for Carpenter depending on if he signs and where he plays to finish out this season, he feels like an arm to really keep an eye out on in the system. The Twins don't really have a strong left handed pitching prospect outside of Connor Prielipp and the underrated Cesar Lares, so Carpenter's development is even more key to follow. 
    Who was your favorite Twins draft pick? Follow me on X @JuhnTroy and stay followed on my blog, where hopefully I post even more this year. 
  2. troyjuhn
    Dereck Falvey and the Twins finally woke up from a two-month offseason slumber and made the first significant move of the offseason, trading long time Twin Jorge Polanco to the Seattle Mariners for 4 players. I have a lot of emotional thoughts on what Polanco meant not just as a player, but how he represents the organization so well in the 15+ years he's been with the Twins. Here's some quick hitters on three of the guys in the deal. 
    Justin Topa
    Topa was one of the more consistent relievers in what was an honestly insane Mariners bullpen. Topa pitched to a 2.61 ERA in 69 innings(nice) with a 3.15 FIP, a team high 155 ERA+ and an 8.0 K/9. Before last season, Topa had only pitched in 17 total games across 3 MLB seasons with Milwaukee. Topa's K rate is a bit low(21%), but he also doesn't walk many batters(6%). His Stuff+ is insane.

    From @pitchprofiler on Twitter
    Topa fills a need in the Twins bullpen hierarchy already with Duran, Jax, Stewart, Thielbar and Funderburk among others. Basically fills the Pagan role. 
     
    Anthony DeSclafani
    DeSclafani was already moved earlier this offseason from the Giants to the Mariners in the Robbie Ray/Mitch Haniger deal. DeSclafani was one of many breakouts on an insane 2021 Giants team, but he's battled injuries the last few seasons. He's going to provide at least some starting pitching depth, but I don't think the Twins are done adding to their rotation. DeSclafani has generally been a pretty solid back end of the rotation guy, with a career 4.20 ERA in 169 GS. He's on the last year of a 3 yr/36 million deal, but the Twins just owe him around 4 million. It gives the Twins some cap flexibility and probably gives them a shot at more starting pitching options in FA. 
    Darren Bowen 
    Bowen seems like just a throw in prospect to the deal, but he's got some intriguing tools. A 2022 13th round pick out of UNC-Pembroke, Bowen wasn't on the most recent top 30 Mariners prospects according to MLB Pipeline, but now slots in at number 27 in the Twins system. Only 22 years old, he had a 3.88 ERA in 19 games and 55 IP. His fastball sits around 92 MPH, and he throws a pretty nasty slider and changeup as well, though he still needs work on command with that pitch. 
    Bowen's addition only intrigues the potential rotation we might get at Cedar Rapids this year, with the likes of Zebby Matthews, Cory Lewis, Andrew Morris, and C.J Culpepper. 
     
    Gabriel Gonzalez
    This is what really got me excited about the deal. As much as it would if the Twins got one of Bryce Miller or Bryan Woo back. Gonzalez was a top five prospect in a really underrated Mariners system, and he'll slot in as a top 5 prospect in the Twins system as well. Gonzalez is ranked inside the top 100 according to MLB pipeline at 79, giving the Twins 4 top 100 prospects. Gonzalez slashed .348/.403/.530 with a .933 OPS at single A, but only slashed .215/.290/.387 with a .677 OPS at high A. But Gonzalez is my personal favorite kind of outfield prospect. A corner outfielder with good enough defense but shows a ton of good power with potential for contact to be better as well. 
    According to @SamDykstraMiLB on Twitter, Gonzalez was one of 61 teenagers to get 300+ PA at single A. He had the highest average amongst the group, and his K rate was at 13.7%, the third lowest amongst these players. The defensive profile is also promising for a 20-year-old corner outfielder. In my eyes, I think Gabriel will only continue to get better and the thoughts of a Jenkins-Gonzalez-Rodriguez MLB outfield in 4-5 years is cool to think about. 
     
    @TFTwins did a great job in short time with this shorter video breaking down Gonzalez and Bowen. 
    Overall, I think it's a very solid trade for the Twins and Mariners. I'd give both teams a B+ with a chance for both teams grades to be better, especially if Gonzalez and Bowen work out for the Twins. 
    What do you all think of the trade? This is the longest blog I've written, so thank you for reading all the way through! Be sure to follow me on my twitter @JuhnTroy. 

  3. troyjuhn
    Do you remember nearly 10 years ago the "Cueto, Cuetoooo" incident in the WC game between Cincinatti and Pittsburgh. Here it is to remind you. 
     
    Why is this so memorable? It's because fans were so into this game (Pirates first playoff game in 30 years) that they mentally broke a pitcher that was seen as one of the best in the NL at that time. It's one of the best crowds to ever attend a baseball game that I've ever seen. You could tell how much Pittsburgh fans had been waiting for this moment to come, and even though they couldn't get past St. Louis that year, this was always the defining moment of the 2013 playoffs (besides the Victorino grand slam). I'm not asking Twins fans to be like this. Heck, I don't think this kind of crowd trolling will ever be replicated in the modern game again. But some people just can't seem to grasp how fans can have a factor in playoff games. Not the biggest factor, but it's quite literally the bare minimum. I don't care personally if the Twins are losing 6-2, 8-0, 11-4, anything. Analytics shouldn't factor into how you cheer for this team in the playoffs. Who gives a crap about "win probability" when a team legit came back from 9 runs down just a couple of days ago. Nothing will make me more excited from my college dorm room when Pablo Lopez gets a massive strikeout in the sixth inning with the bases loaded. 
    And this is verbatim what I tweeted an hour ago as of this post but: If I ever attend a playoff game at Target field, I will be loud. No matter what. I attended game 2 of the 2019 ALDS and that game was pretty hopeless. I still cared no matter what. Still cheered every strike out, every base runner. Games never over until it’s over. You should probably be loud too. And It's encouraged. Be loud and proud. Show why you bought tickets. 
  4. troyjuhn
    Per Craig Mish, the Marlins traded RHP Dylan Floro to the Twins in exchange for RHP Jorge Lopez in a straight one for one deal. It's the first move the Twins have made before the trade deadline and it won't be the last. 
    Floro, 32, was originally drafted by the Rays but is probably more well known for being an arm on the 2020 WS Dodgers team. He was traded to Miami prior to the 2021 season and has been a solid reliver all things considered for the Fish. This year he's had a down year, with a 4.54 ERA, 3.37 xERA and a 2.78 FIP. But the peripherals still look pretty good and the Marlins have used him in high leverage plenty of times during his tenure. 
    Jorge Lopez was one of the Twins biggest trade deadline acquisitions last year from Baltimore after having a career resurgence after stints as a below average starter. But this year he's simply been underwhelming, while also dealing with some mental health issues and lacking focus on the mound. His ERA is over 5, the peripherals have taken a huge step back, and his Baseball Savant page is very heavily blue(not good). And with Yennier Cano having a career year for Baltimore and being a part of the Lopez trade, the gamble the Twins took on Lopez last year was unfortunately a miss at this point. The trade hopefully gives Jorge a new change of scenery, as I still believe despite the numbers, he can be a solid reliever down the line. 
    The Twins get a guy who's a FA at the end of the year. I see this move being pretty low risk because of that and if he pitches well, that's great. The Marlins will also probably make more trades as they are in the midst of a pretty crazy NL wild card race, so Lopez is also pretty low risk for them. 
    As for the Twins next move, I'd like to see another reliver get added, preferably another lefty (Brent Suter is my favorite). Of course, despite the recent offensive resurgence, another bat should also be looked at (Lane Thomas, Jeimer Candelario, Randall Grichuk)
    GRADE
    Twins: B
    Marlins: B 
     
     
  5. troyjuhn
    The Twins outscored the Royals in three games 11-4. The starting pitching went 16 1/3 innings with only a run allowed, and the Bullpen, save for some rough outings from Moran and Pagan, was excellent. Duran and Jorge Lopez picked up saves, with Lopez pitching in all three games, allowing no runs. The bats were pretty solid, Buxton was very good in three games, Larnach has a .455 batting average, Joey Gallo blasted two homers in one game, and Jeffers drove in a few runs in his only start. The Twins will now send Tyler Mahle, Kenta Maeda and Pablo Lopez to the mound against Miami. Let's take a look at this Miami team. 
    Marlins against the Mets
    The Marlins went 1-3 in their series against the Mets to open their year, losing 5-3 on opening day, a 2-1 win on Friday, a 6-2 loss on Saturday, and a 5-1 loss Sunday. 
    Who stood out? 
    The Marlins are known for very strong starting pitching, they do have the defending NL Cy young winner in Sandy Alcantara. 
    But the most consistent Miami player through their 4 games was former Twin Luiz Arraez. Arraez is 9-16 in 4 games to begin his season, seeming like he hasn't slowed down from his AL batting title year with the Twins last season. Unfortunately for the Marlins, he's been their only source of offense. Nobody else has more than 5 hits. The Miami offense has been very weak in recent years, as they rely heavily on a very good rotation. 
     
    Keys for the Twins
    Make sure the bats get going. The twins have had a lot of RISP the first 3 games but didn't really capitalize until game 3. The Twins need to capitalize on the chances they get, and they might not get that many chances, especially with facing Alcantara on Tuesday, and two not bad starters in Cueto and Luzardo. Bullpen should continue to stay consistent and not allow too many base runners in the later innings. 
  6. troyjuhn
    The Twins come into the year with a lot of guys that can play at the major league level, but with such a logjam at certain positions, it might be hard for some players to distance themselves. These are 5 guys that I think will have potentially huge roles to play if everything goes right for them. In no particular order...
    1. Jorge Alcala 
    This is a pretty common breakout pick and yet I also feel like Alcala is not talked about enough for whatever reason. Alcala, 27, was one of the pieces sent to the Twins in the Ryan Pressely trade back in 2018, Alcala was decent during the COVID season with a 2,63 ERA in 24 innings and a 3.92 ERA in nearly 60 innings in 2021 before a injury to his throwing shoulder sidelined him for the majority of last year. Outside of Duran, Thielbar and Jax, the twins have a lot of uncertainty in the bullpen that was fairly middle of the pack in the MLB last year. Alcala has touched 98 with his fastball this spring and I truly believe he might have a Duran type full breakout depending on his role. The Twins didn't do much this offseason to address the bullpen, so they clearly have a lot of belief in what they have already. I feel like Alcala has the tools already to etablish himself for a long time in the bulpen. 
     
    2. Royce Lewis. 
    We already saw a small sample size of Royce last year, which for the most part showed a ton of promise. In just 12 games, he batted .300 with a grand slam as his first big league homer, and also made some plays out in center. Unfortunately, he suffered another torn ACL that ended his year and will keep him out for at least half of this year. When he eventually goes come up though around the middle of the summer, Royce should provide a great amount of depth in the middle infield and potentially the outfield. Maybe even get reps at SS when Correa has an off day. I thought Royce was going to have a ROY like campaign, but alas that never happened. However the true test for Royce is probably 2024, where I really think he'll start to become an everyday starter for the Twins. 
     
    3. Trevor Larnach
    Trevor Larnach just had a 4-4 day against Boston in a spring training game today, falling a triple shy of the cycle. I've always liked Larnach, despite relatively mediocre stats in 130 games in two years. With Alex Kirloff starting the year most likely on the IL, it gives more of an opportunity for Larnach, who has a .951 OPS and 3 home runs this spring. With injuires to Polanco as well, it pretty much secured Larnach his spot on the opening day roster for the beginning of the year. If he continues to play like this at the beginning of the regular season, expect Larnach to lock down a lot of playing time, whether that's in a corner outfield spot or as a DH. 
     
    4. Bailey Ober
    I've always been a fan of Bailey, and this year I think he'll really get a chance to shine in the rotation as the 5th/ maybe even 6th starter. He's thrown 6 shutout innings this spring and has shown that he is at 100% before the year, especially after he struggled to stay healthy last year and only made 11 starts.  Still, teams struggled against Bailey when he was on the mound, with only a .227 average and only 4 home runs hit off of him in 56 innings. I'm not going to be too worried if we do suffer an injury in the rotation, because I genuinely believe Bailey has the tools to be a full-time guy in an MLB rotation. If he has to start at AAA, I'm excited to see how he improves before inevitably getting a call up at some point. 
     
    5. Austin Martin 
    This is a wildcard pick for me. Lots of infield prospects could have big breakouts in the majors or at the minor league level this year. I've always liked Austin, his start to last year was rough and the torn UCL didn't help either. His Arizona fall league performance was very promising, as a elite level contact hitter with great discipline, it shouldn't take long for him to rake at AA and get a fast call up to AAA. If he impresses in the minors this year, a 40 man spot might open up, making this year a big audition year for the 24 year old former top 5 draft pick. 
  8. troyjuhn

    So, Rodon now? Dansby?

    By troyjuhn,


    Blog
    I would've love having Correa back, as much as every Twins fan probably did. But he got a massive contract we would've never matched in the first place. I don't know the direction this front office goes this offseason. Rodon is very much at play, so is Dansby. A Luis Arraez for Pablo Lopez deal also isn't out of the question. Here's 3 things I want to see the Twins do with Correa gone. 
     
    1. Sign Rodon, Dansby, one of them. Getting one would be ideal and increase the celling of this team. In this case on who I would want to sign, probably Rodon. Kyle Farmer is a pretty solid holdover at short until Lewis can come back and get SS reps. 
    2. Get another veteran bat for the lineup. A Nelson Cruz reunion? I don't know if we want to sign a 42 year old, but Cruz would be great veteran leadership for a team that doesn't really have that long term veteran on the team. 
    3.  If we do indeed trade Arraez for a good pitcher, I want to sign somebody who could play 1B and also DH. somebody like a Trey Mancini. 
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