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Blog Entries posted by cjm0926

  1. cjm0926
    Amid the trade rumors surrounding Joe Ryan’s true breakout season, there are various fan bases putting out their mock trades to acquire the Twin’s ace before the deadline. In a sellers  market, Minnesota could capitalize on Ryan’s value, which very likely may never be higher, or they could extend Ryan, signifying him as a building block for future Twins teams. So far this season through 17 starts (18 games) Ryan has pitched to a 2.76 ERA in 104.1 innings with good peripherals, which accumulates to a 3.9 bWAR. These are frontline-esque pitching stats, and although Joe Ryan was snubbed from the AL All-Star team, the league is certainly taking notice of his performance. Ryan has been a very good pitcher since his debut in 2021, but he seems to have taken the next step in 2025. Joe Ryan is under control through the 2027 season, so nothing needs to be urgent, but I think it would be wise for the Twins to extend him as soon as possible.
    Joe Ryan is currently pitching in his age-29 season and has 2 years of arbitration control following the current campaign. He is making $3 million this season in his first trip through arbitration and has roughly $5.5 million in MLB career earnings thus far. At this point in the season it is difficult to predict arbitration numbers for the offseason, but typically if salaries start low, they stay fairly low in comparison to others. With that being said, for this exercise we will predict Ryan would make $6 million in 2026 arbitration and $10 million in 2027 arbitration.
     
    Potential extension
    A potential extension for Ryan could be something along the lines of 5 years, $95 million. This would give him a raise in his final two arbitration seasons, and buy out 3 free agent years. This proposed deal would have Ryan pitch his age 30-34 seasons with Minnesota before possibly re-entering the market going into his age-35 campaign, where there could still be some strong earning potential. The proposed extension would take the following structure:


    This proposed deal would give the Twins 3 more years of club control and guarantee Joe Ryan approximately $79 million more dollars (accounting for expected arb-year increases). Obviously, this all depends on if Ryan is comfortable in Minneapolis and would want to accept this life-changing money now, or bet on his breakout and possibly earn more money down the road. That also goes to say who knows if the Twins front office would be able to offer a deal of this size right now, given ownership concerns. I personally have no good connections to any MLB front offices, and this is completely from a fan standpoint, but I think this could be a solid framework to begin negotiations of a possible extension. It also should be stated that extensions such as this one more often happen during the offseason, so that is something to keep in mind.
     
    This deal also gives the Twins more stability for their rotation in the future, as the top 3 of Lopez, Ryan and Ober are all on pace to become free agents after the 2027 season. It is highly unlikely they will be able to retain all 3 guys, but getting one locked up now may increase the chance they can extend Lopez or Ober in the future if they choose. An extension would give the Twins the following rotation outlook for seasons to come.


    This gives the Twins a frontline guy they can build and develop young arms around. As they say, an ace helps prevent losing streaks, and Ryan is well on his way to becoming one. The deal gives Ryan a very nice payday and great financial security, but gives the Twins upside in that if he keeps performing at this level, this deal could become somewhat of a bargain the way that the price of pitching keeps increasing.
     
    As I mentioned before, this is purely for fun, and there is no real steam behind this (at least that I know of.) As a diehard Twins fan, I would love to see Ryan stick around for many more years to come, and would have to think really hard about my fandom if they traded him at the deadline for anything short of a crazy prospect like Roman Anthony and change. Hopefully you enjoyed the article, let me know what you think. Thanks for reading!
     
     
  2. cjm0926

    My 2025 Offseason Blueprint

    By cjm0926,


    Twins
    The 2024 World Series just ended last night with the Dodgers beating the Yankees, which means moves and transactions are on the horizon. Being a typical MLB fan, I enjoy playing pretend GM and setting teams rosters for the upcoming season. There are certainly some needs with the Twins current roster, and I am aiming to fix them to improve the team for next season. Twins current ownership has already said payroll will be about the same as in 2024 ($130 million-ish), so I will take that into account, but it may be a little high, as it is what I think needs to be done to get the maximum benefit. Without further ado, this is my blueprint.
      
     
    Transactions
    Trade Paddack, Winder to LAA for Jo Adell Trade Gabriel Gonzalez, Jose Salas to TB for Yandy Diaz Sign Caleb Ferguson - 1 Year, $4 Million  
    The Angels have already said they are looking to compete in 2025, and they don’t have a lot of pitching, so the Twins send them Chris Paddack and Josh Winder. Moving Paddack helps clear up some salary, and gives the Angels someone with upside to slot into their rotation at roughly market value. They also add a reliever in Josh Winder, who gives them depth and may end up becoming a solid reliever given a chance, which likely wouldn’t happen with the Twins, as he is out of options. The Twins add the former top prospect Jo Adell, who seems to have fallen out of favor with the Angels. He gives the Twins a right-handed outfielder who can mash lefties, and contrary to popular belief, has become a solid defender. Adell is a good change of scenery candidate.
    Next, the Twins add their first baseman in Yandy Diaz. Diaz can crush the ball, finishing with an OPS+ of 157 just 2 seasons ago, while still posting a 116 OPS+ in 2024. His stock is a bit down, but the Rays may be looking to move his contract ($10M in 2025, $12M club option in 2024) in exchange for prospects, because that is the way they do things in Tampa Bay. It is tough to know what the Rays may want in a trade for Diaz, but I propose giving them Gabriel Gonzalez, who was a top-100 prospect as recent as early 2024, and Jose Salas, whose stock is also down, but is still young. These prospects are possibly interchangeable, depending on who the Rays would want. Diaz figures to be a somewhat of a hot commodity this offseason, so the Twins will likely have competition in acquiring him.
    Lastly, the Twins add an experienced lefty in Caleb Ferguson. The Twins will need a reliable lefty, and ideally Ferguson can provide that. Ferguson had an okay 2024 season, but carries a solid track record as a middle relief option. This spot is not set in stone, as the Twins just need to add a lefty reliever, which will likely cost $4-6 million on the FA market, depending on who it is. Other names include AJ Minter, Aroldis Chapman, Aaron Bummer, etc.
     
    Lineup/Bench
    This is pretty self explanatory. You have Jeffers at catcher, with Vazquez as the backup. At first base you have Diaz, but Miranda and Julien can also get some time here. At 2B you have Lee, who figures to show why he is a top prospect, with Julien as a backup. Shortstop is obviously Correa, and Lewis occupies 3B. In the outfield you have Wallner in right, and Larnach in left, with Buxton in center. At this point in the offseason, the outfield seems like somewhat of a certainty. Miranda will occupy the DH spot in this blueprint, but we all know that spot is regularly rotated to give guys some rest. Ideally in 2025 Willi Castro will spend most of his time on the dirt, which seems to be where he is best-suited. He can play in place of Lewis and Correa on off-days, in an effort to keep them on the field for the whole season. Adell acts as your 4th outfielder, and right-handed outfield platoon option when facing lefties. Lastly, Julien fills in when needed, spending time at 1B, 2B, and DH. Infielder depth in AAA includes Michael Helman, Yunior Severino, Luke Keaschall, and Payton Eeles. Outfielder depth includes Austin Martin, Dashawn Keirsey, and top prospect Emmanuel Rodriguez.
     
    Starting Rotation
    This is pretty similar to last year. Obviously you have the top 3 of Lopez, Ryan, and Ober. This may not be top of the league, but is very solid and will win you games. By trading away Paddack, I am giving Festa a spot in the rotation, and I think he will eventually flourish. He has the stuff to make him a mid/top of the rotation guy, it is just all about how he grows and develops. Lastly, SWR earned himself a spot in the rotation with his 2024 performance. He is a guy that will throw strikes and keep you in games, which is exactly what you need from a back of the rotation guy. There is also plenty of depth in the high-minors for the rotation, which includes Zebby Matthews, Andrew Morris, Cory Lewis, Marco Raya, Randy Dobnak, Travis Adams, and more. These guys will eventually get their shot and hopefully prove the pitching pipeline is here to stay.
     
    Bullpen
    Plenty of familiar faces here, and this group has potential to be one of the best in the league. Closing games you have your option of Duran, Jax, and Stewart. In the middle innings you can go to any of Sands, Alcala, Topa, Ferguson, or even Varland and feel pretty good about your chances to keep the score where it is. Obviously bullpens can fluctuate very much from year to year, but if this is the group going into the season I feel pretty confident. Obviously injuries happen, so there will need to be depth in AAA to keep the team afloat. Righties include Ronny Henriquez, Matt Canterino, possibly a converted starter, and veterans on minor league deals the team will eventually sign. As for lefties, you have Kody Funderburk, Brent Headrick, and Jovani Moran. There is not a ton of depth in AAA, but as mentioned before, guys can surprise you, which can be good or bad.
     
    Overall, this is a blueprint that I think could lead to the Twins getting back into the postseason. Obviously many things change from year to year, some guys will perform better, and some worse. As we saw in 2024, injuries can ruin a team, which is why depth is important. I’d love to hear any other ideas you all may have. Thank you for reading, enjoy the offseason!
     
  3. cjm0926

    2024 Twins Offseason Guide

    By cjm0926,


    Twins
    Wow, what a season. Although it didn’t end the way Twins Territory wanted it to, it was undoubtedly a success. As recent as the second half, this team was flirting with a .500 record, and at multiple times dipped below it. If in March I were to tell you that Byron Buxton AND Carlos Correa were below average hitters for the regular season, you would have thought it was a trainwreck. But with the emergence of players such as Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien, Matt Wallner, and even Spring Training non-roster invitee Willi Castro, it made it an enjoyable season of baseball to watch for fans. That does not even mention Ryan Jeffers breaking out, and the second half Max Kepler had, when it seemed his days of baseball in Minneapolis were over. The streak was finally broken, and now we won’t have to grimace every time somebody mentions a once-active 0-18 playoff streak dating back to 2004 (before I was even born). No matter what anyone says, it was a successful season of Twins Baseball in 2023, and I will leave it at that. With that being said, now we look forward to Twins baseball in 2024, and I decided to create a guide to help navigate the offseason. I have compiled dates, roster information, and hopefully everything you will need to get a better idea of what this offseason will bring. I hope you enjoy!
    Free Agents
    Sonny Gray
    Kenta Maeda
    Emilio Pagan
    Donovan Solano
    Tyler Mahle
    Michael A Taylor
    Joey Gallo
    Dallas Keuchel
    40 Man Roster (Doesn’t account for any transactions that will inevitably happen, 38 spots full)
    Pitchers (21 spots)
    Jorge Alcala
    Jordan Balazovic
    Matt Canterino
    Jose De Leon
    Jhoan Duran
    Kody Funderburk
    Brent Headrick
    Ronny Henriquez
    Griffin Jax
    Pablo Lopez
    Jovani Moran
    Bailey Ober
    Oliver Ortega
    Chris Paddack
    Joe Ryan
    Cole Sands
    Brock Stewart
    Caleb Thielbar
    Louie Varland
    Josh Winder
    Simeon Woods-Richardson
    Hitters
    Ryan Jeffers
    Christian Vazquez
    Carlos Correa 
    Kyle Farmer
    Edouard Julien
    Royce Lewis
    Jose Miranda
    Jorge Polanco
    Willi Castro
    Nick Gordon
    Max Kepler
    Alex Kirilloff
    Trevor Larnach
    Jordan Luplow
    Andrew Stevenson
    Matt Wallner
    Byron Buxton
    Timeline (*Explained Below)
    Oct 27-Nov 4: World Series*
    5 Days After Conclusion of World Series: League Wide Free Agency Begins* (Player/Team Options Due)* (Qualifying Offer also due)*
    Nov 7-9: GM Meetings*
    Nov 15: Rule 5 Protection Deadline*, Qualifying Offer Decision Deadline*
    Nov 17: Non-Tender Deadline*
    Dec 3-6: Winter Meetings*
    Dec 5: MLB Draft Lottery*
    Dec 6: Rule 5 Draft*
    January 2024: BBWAA Hall of Fame Announcement*
    Jan 12: Arbitration Agreement Deadline*
    Jan 29-Feb 16: Arbitration Hearings*
    Feb 14: Pitchers and Catchers Report
    Feb 23: Spring Training Game vs. Gophers
    Feb 24: First Real Spring Training Game vs. Pirates
    Mar 28: Opening Day @Kansas City Royals
    World Series - The end of the World Series officially signifies the long offseason starting. The 2024 World Series Game 1 is scheduled for October 27, whereas Game 7 is scheduled for November 4.
    Free Agency - Free Agency technically begins the day after the World Series, however, that just is when only the team they are departing from can contact their own free agents. League-wide free agency starts five days after the final game of the World Series, which could be as soon as November 5, or as late as November 9. Team and Player Options are due before league wide free agency starts.
    Qualifying Offers - Qualifying Offers must be made within the 5 day window after the World Series ends. This year the qualifying offer is slated to be just over $20 Million. The only one of the 8 departing free agents from the Twins who will likely receive a QO will be Sonny Gray, and he will most likely decline by the November 15 deadline at 3:00 PM CT. It seems that Sonny Gray will sign elsewhere, which will gain the Twins a draft pick. If Sonny signs elsewhere for $50+ Million, the Twins receive a 2024 draft pick right before Competitive Balance Round A (Right after 1st round,) If less than $50 Million, it would be right after Competitive Balance Round B, which is after the 2nd round.
    GM Meetings - Typically not much happens here. Just a meeting to explore possible offseason scenarios for General Managers and set framework up for the winter.
    Rule 5 Protection - Teams must protect players who signed at age 18 or younger within 5 seasons and players who signed at age 19 or older within 4 seasons. Some Twins prospects who fit that bill and will at least be considered to be added are Jair Camargo, Yunior Severino, Chris Williams, Austin Martin, Dashawn Keirsey, Michael Helman, Anthony Prato, Blayne Enlow, and maybe a few more. Players who are not protected can be chosen by other organizations during the Rule 5 Draft on December 6 for a $100k fee. Players selected must be kept on MLB active roster for the whole season or the MLB IL when it opens up during spring training. Otherwise, if they are DFA’d and clear waivers they must be offered back to their original team for $50k.
    Non Tender Deadline/Arbitration - Players with between 3 and 6 years of MLB service time qualify for arbitration. It is a system for players to present themselves and try to be compensated for what they believe to be fair for their play. If a team doesn’t believe that a player is worth their projected arbitration amount, they can choose not to offer them a contract, or “non-tender” them. Said player then becomes a free agent and available to sign with any team after the November 17 deadline. If the team does decide to offer the player a contract before the deadline, they agree to go through a process called arbitration. The teams and the player are free to negotiate a contract all the way until the January 12 deadline. If no agreement is reached, they have to go through the MLB to an Arbitrator. Both sides submit their desired pay figures and the arbitrator uses previous play and other information to decide which figure is more fair. The player is then paid that figure for the year and no more negotiation is had. This can hurt the relationship between the player and the organization, see Corbin Burnes and the Brewers in 2023.
    Arbitration Eligible Twins (Expected $ in parentheses)
    Caleb Thielbar ($3M)
    Kyle Farmer ($6.6M)
    Jordan Luplow ($1.6M)
    Willi Castro ($3.2M)
    Jorge Alcala ($1M)
    Ryan Jeffers ($2.3M)
    Jose De Leon ($740K)
    Alex Kirilloff ($1.7M)
    Nick Gordon ($1M)
    Non Tender Candidates - Farmer, Luplow, Alcala, De Leon
    Winter Meetings - Multiple representatives from each team/organization gather for 4 days of meetings, which is happening this year in Nashville, Tennessee. Here is moreso where trades and signings are discussed between players, teams, and agents. Just as recent as last year, the Winter Meetings have had breaking news when Aaron Judge signed his 9 year, $360 Million megadeal to stay with the Yankees. If you are hoping for breaking MLB news during this offseason, this is the week to expect it to come from.=
    BBWAA Hall of Fame Announcement - Typically this is not a huge deal for Twins fans. Recently Jim Kaat and Tony Oliva were inducted to the MLB Hall of Fame, but they were through a different committee. This year is different, Minnesota Twins great Joe Mauer is going to be on the ballot for the first time. Although he may not make it in on the first try, this has been a day Minnesotans have been waiting for for a long time. Other former Twins on the ballot include Torii Hunter, and more infamously Bartolo Colon.
    MLB Draft Lottery - In 2023, the Twins infamously jumped up the draft board to pick #5 during the lottery and in July selected Walker Jenkins. This year will not be quite as exciting, only teams who missed the playoffs qualify for the lottery. With the playoff run they had, the Twins will be selecting around pick #25 during the MLB Draft in July.
    If you made it all the way through, thank you for reading. I hope you enjoyed and at least learned something. To compilate all of this data took quite a while so any feedback would be appreciated. This was the first article I’ve written in a while so it is very possible I was a bit rusty. If you have any questions leave a comment and I will try my best to clarify/answer. Happy offseason and GO TWINS!!!
  4. cjm0926

    My 2023 Roster Blueprint Version 1

    By cjm0926,


    Offseason Blueprint
    The morale throughout Twins territory right now is very low, and rightfully so. We all had been waiting and hoping to sign Correa to that long-term deal to keep him in Minneapolis for the rest of his career. That is until the news broke that he signed a 13 year deal with the San Francisco Giants. There were mixed reactions, some taking shots at the front office, others feeling we dodged a bullet with the contract length. However, life still goes on and the Twins will have to find a different way to build a team in 2023, whether that includes pulling out the young guns, or getting creative in free agency to build a contender. In this article I will be building the team as if we are making a contender, as shown in the blueprint above.
     
    Moves
    Trade Max Kepler, Keoni Cavaco to Yankees for Frankie Montas
    Trade Gilberto Celestino, Cole Sands to Athletics for Ramon Laureano
    Sign Michael Brantley - 1 year, $16 million
    Sign Jean Segura - 1 year $10 million
     
    Position players
    The Twins have a lot of young players they need to take the next step in becoming Major League Baseball players. Currently in the minors they have Julien, Martin, Wallner, Lewis, Lee, and others. It would be very risky to fully rely on them, which could lead to the 3rd disappointing season in as many years. In this blueprint, I have them sign a few veterans and make a few trades, allowing some certainty, but also providing wiggle room, so that they could still work in the young guys, while still having a safe option.
     
    Catchers - No moves here, with the signing of Christian Vazquez it stabilizes the position. Vazquez and Jeffers should provide a very solid catching tandem for the next couple years.
     
    Infield - Here is where there are a few changes. Jose Miranda is holding down the fort at third base, which was indicated that it was his position when they shipped Gio Urshela off to LA. At Shortstop, many are penciling in Kyle Farmer, which isn't a bad idea. Beyond Farmer though, there is nothing besides maybe Nick Gordon. I personally feel Farmer would be better settled as a utility option for the Twins, not an everyday shortstop, even as a stopgap. Jean Segura provides exactly that, a stopgap. He is manning the position until franchise savior Royce Lewis returns from injury. If everything goes perfect, Lewis will return in June/July and become the shortstop for the Twins until he retires, but as we all know, not everything goes perfectly. Segura gives the Twins a solid veteran option, with solid offense and defense to help ease any possible complications, and it allows one of Lee or Lewis to become the everyday shortstop starting in 2024, while being eased in during 2023. At 2nd we've got long-time Twin Jorge Polanco. As long as he is healthy you know he will be a top of the order bat for the Twins. At first base is Luis Arraez. He is the sparkplug of the offense, providing elite offense and above-average defense. He can also spend some time at DH and second base when needed.
     
    Bench - First off the bench is Kyle Farmer, who will actually not spend a whole lot of time on the bench. He can play all over the infield, giving guys days off while still providing value to the team. Next is Alex Kirilloff. I believe 2023 is the year where one of Kirilloff or Larnach will break out and become a force in the Twins lineup. The only problem is that I am not sure which one it will be, making them interchangeable on this blueprint. Like many, I believe if he can get healthy, Kirilloff will be a better option at first base instead of the outfield, but that remains to be seen. Next is Ryan Jeffers. He is catcher 1B and Vazquez is 1A. He will still get plenty of time behind the dish, but as of now he is labeled as the backup. Lastly is Nick Gordon. He can provide at least average defense at any position, including shortstop and center field. He also has a very good bat, amounting to a 113 OPS+ in 2022. He will be the super-utility guy for the Twins for years to come.
     
    DH - I signed Michael Brantley to a 1 year contract. He is as good of a hitter as they come, combining power, discipline, and average to be the ultimate Major League hitter. He is coming off an injury-plagued 2022, but I believe he will bounce back. He isn’t solely a DH, he still provides above average defense in left field, even at 35 years old. He will take anywhere from 60-100 games at DH, the others in left field while Arraez and others take the other games at DH. Brantley could provide a veteran spark in the lineup like Nelson Cruz did a few seasons ago.
     
    Outfield - In left field I have Trevor Larnach, who is interchangeable with Alex Kirilloff like I mentioned above. One of the two will break out this year and answer many questions about the future of this outfield. Michael Brantley will also spend some time in left, and he can still give you above average defense. In centerfield we have Buxton. We can hope this is the year he stays healthy, but it is seeming increasingly unlikely that it will ever happen. As a Buxton backup we have Nick Gordon, or Austin Martin in AAA waiting for his opportunity. Laureano could also slide over and provide solid defense. Lastly, in right field there is Ramon Laureano. The Twins are getting him from Oakland for 2 players with moderate upside in Celestino and Sands. Laureano is coming off a down year, but there is definitely upside. He had a weird year in 2022 due to injuries and coming off a suspension, allowing the Twins to pick him up at a lower cost. His offensive floor is a Max Kepler type, which is who he is replacing, and his ceiling is providing around a 130 OPS+, which is what he did just a few seasons ago. He also provides very good defense in right field, almost to that of Kepler, with a cannon for an arm, and can hold his own in centerfield as Buxton insurance. He is fairly cheap and comes with 3 seasons of team control, which is why I think it makes all the sense in the world to get him from a rebuilding A’s team.


     
    Pitchers
    The Twins were in an odd spot with pitching during this offseason. People imposed “The Sonny Gray Threshold,” which implied that we didn’t need to add another starter unless he was better than Sonny Gray. Now with Rodon off the board, there really is nobody who clearly fits that bill, only maybe a healthy Nathan Eovaldi. The Twins have very solid backup options knocking at the door in AAA including Louie Varland, SWR, Jordan Balazovic, Josh Winder, and Ronny Henriquez. They may very well be the future of this rotation, but it is far too uncertain to rely on them this year while the Twins still have a shot to contend. In this blueprint, I have them swinging a trade with past target Frankie Montas, giving up longtime outfielder Max Kepler to the dark side. It will be interesting to see how the Twins attack their pitching in 2023, so let’s get on into it.
     
    Rotation - It largely consists of returners, with one new face. The top of the rotation has former Red’s teammates Sonny Gray and Tyler Mahle. I personally believe the Twins need to extend one of them this winter to provide certainty for next winter. Gray may be along the lines of 3 years/ $45 million, whereas Mahle may be about 4 years/ $64 million, but we can figure that out later. Joe Ryan will hopefully take the jump this year to become a top of the rotation starter, but to start out he takes the #3 spot. At #4 we have Frankie Montas. The Yankees have expressed their interest in Max Kepler for years now, and it seems pretty certain he will be dealt this offseason. I have the Twins sending Kepler, along with Cavaco to New York for Frankie Montas. Nothing is saying the Yankees would do this, but with the Rodon signing, their top 4 starters consist of Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodon, Nestor Cortes, and Luis Severino. That is as good as any team in baseball. For the #5 spot they have a bevy of options, one of them being Montas. They get longtime target Max Kepler, along with former 1st round pick Keoni Cavaco, who has great tools but just hasn’t put them all together yet. Montas didn’t give a good first impression as a Yankee, pitching to a 6.35 ERA in 39.2 innings, but some players just can't play in New York. If the Twins believe his short Yankees tenure was a fluke, and the Yankees would do this trade, it would make a ton of sense. The Yankees have also expressed some interest in free agent Nathan Eovaldi, possibly providing more incentive to make this trade so they can sign him to round out the rotation. Finishing out the rotation in the 5 spot I've got Bailey Ober. In this blueprint, I moved Kenta Maeda to the bullpen, at least temporarily. I just don’t see the value of having him pitch 2-4 innings every start while building back up from surgery, and taxing the bullpen early on. Eventually, when he is built up, he can slide back into the rotation, but it just doesn’t make a ton of sense to start the season. In case of injuries a young arm could fill in for as long as needed, due to the Twins great young depth. Also later in the season they will hopefully get Chris Paddack back, who can provide a late season spark. Maeda will also pitch out of the rotation later in the season.
     
    Bullpen - For the lower leverage situations we have arms like Jorge Alcala, Emilio Pagan, and Jovani Moran. They all have good stuff, but just don’t have the track record to warrant more critical situations. Pagan being here will probably draw some negative feedback, and I totally agree. I just don’t think the Twins will cut bait with him, so I kept him to make this as realistic as possible. We have also got Kenta Maeda in the pen to provide long relief, getting roughly the same number of innings he may get to start the season out of the rotation, hopefully pitching 2-3 innings every appearance as he builds back up. For the mid-high leverage arms we have Griffin Jax, Caleb Thielbar, and Jorge Lopez. These guys have all had success in the big leagues, and are very solid pieces to build your bullpen around. For the top guy/ closer it is none other than flamethrower Jhoan Duran. He will build off an outstanding rookie season and cement himself as top reliever in the league.
     
    Overall, this blueprint gets the Twins around the payroll of recent years, while putting together a team that I feel could be very good. The AL Central is up for the taking right now, as the Guardians try to prove their young players are here to stay and the White Sox do whatever they are doing over there. An ideal lineup for this team would be:
    1 - Luis Arraez 1B
    2 - Byron Buxton CF
    3 - Michael Brantley DH
    4 - Jorge Polanco 2B
    5 - Jose Miranda 3B
    6 - Ramon Laureano RF
    7 - Jean Segura/ Royce Lewis SS
    8 - Christian Vazquez C
    9 - Trevor Larnach LF
    Obviously most of this probably won’t happen, but I sure think it would be great if it did. I’d love to hear your feedback in the comments, and what you would do differently. Thanks for reading, GO TWINS!
     
  5. cjm0926

    2022-23 Offseason Twins Mock Trades - Pitchers

    By cjm0926,


    Trade Targets
    The offseason is a time to dream about huge free agent signings and blockbuster trades. The Twins have had their name come up in both of those scenarios. In this first article I will be focusing on the trading aspect for pitching. The Twins currently have a need to some degree for a pitcher or two to bolster the rotation and/or the bullpen. Below are some possible mock trades I built up using Baseball Trade Values. Some of these would make sense for the Twins to make, but others make you think if it would really be worth it for the big name. Disclaimer: Some of the lower end prospects/ players are interchangeable, I just used what I thought a team may want and factored in a player's value from the website.
    Pitching
    The Twins are in a tough spot with their pitching right now. Do they really want to pay Carlos Rodon $30+ million a year for the next 5-7 years, trade for a frontline starter, or do they want to go with internal upgrades? If nothing changes, this year they will likely go into spring training with a rotation consisting of Mahle/Gray/Ryan/Maeda/Ober, but after this season, Mahle, Gray, and Maeda are all free agents, creating a need for controllable pitching. These are some mocks I created below.
     
    Twins get - Pablo Lopez 
    Marlins get - Luis Arraez, Max Kepler, David Festa
    The Twins recently announced they would make 2022 AL Batting Champion Luis Arraez available for high-end pitching. I believe that caught the Marlins attention. The Marlins have expressed a desire to add to their Major League offense, and what other way to do it than with Luis Arraez. Moving Arraez would definitely draw mixed reactions within Twins territory, and rightfully so. I do believe the Marlins would hold out for Arraez, and if I were the Twins I may think long and hard about his long term future, including a possible contract extension, his defensive home, and his injury concerns. If they think the time is right, they may do this. As for Kepler, he provides the Marlins with great defense for a reasonable cost, and a possible bounceback offensively. Festa would give the Marlins another solid pitcher in the Minor League ranks, with a chance to fill a future void in the rotation. Lopez is under team control for 2 more seasons, giving the Twins a bit more rotation certainty in future seasons. Depending on who you ask, Lopez probably passes the “Sonny Gray Threshold.” It seems he pitches like an Ace in the first part of the season, but cools off as the season goes on. It would be a high risk, high reward move for the Twins.
     
    Twins get - Brandon Woodruff
    Brewers get - Luis Arraez, Royce Lewis, Simeon Woods-Richardson
    Woodruff is a better pitcher than Pablo Lopez, with the same amount of control. That would naturally mean his acquisition cost would be higher. The Twins would be giving up a high-end controllable major league hitter in Arraez, a possible franchise shortstop in Royce Lewis, and a very promising young arm in SWR. I personally don't think this is a great trade to make for the Twins. They have no track record of paying top end pitchers, and that is exactly what Woodruff is. He is under team control for 2 more seasons, projecting to make $11 million in arbitration this year, and even more next year. After that, he will likely command $30+ million a season in free agency. Don't get me wrong, Woodruff is a great pitcher, and there is no denying his talent, I'm just not sure I’d be willing to give up a huge part of my future talent and payroll. Even if they are willing to do this, the Brewers leadership would have to give it the okay, as they have said recently they don't plan on moving him, along with a few others this offseason. That brings me to Burnes. Burnes is arguably a top 5 pitcher in the MLB, if you wanted him, you’d only have to add another couple top 5 prospects from your system, or just Brooks Lee.
     
    Twins get - German Marquez
    Rockies get - Jordan Balazovic, Aaron Sabato
    The Rockies would be trading Marquez at his low, which is what the Twins would be doing with their prospects here. Nobody knows for sure if the Rockies would even trade Marquez, or what they would trade him for. They were reportedly interested in Nimmo before he signed, and they signed Kris Bryant to a big deal last offseason, even though they are still aways from competing in a stacked division, creating more confusion about their current standpoint. Marquez has posted much better road stats than home stats during his career, making him a piece with possible upside. He fits the bill of a back end starter better than a 2 or 3 right now, which is not really what the Twins need. He is also quite expensive, making $15 million this year with a $16 million club option in 2024, knocking down his acquisition cost. He would be an interesting addition, but not really what the Twins need at this point in time, unless they don't believe in Kenta Maeda or Bailey Ober being a rotation contributor in 2023. The Twins would be giving former top prospect Jordan Balazovic, who struggled last year, and former 1st round pick Aaron Sabato, who hasn’t done a whole lot in the pro’s. It would be an odd trade for both sides, so I would be shocked if a trade was made, but the offseason is a time to think out of the box I guess.
     
    Twins get - Liam Hendriks
    White Sox get - Max Kepler, Noah Miller
    Hendriks is the only relief pitcher on the list, and he sure is a good one. The Sox have said they have floated the idea of trading Hendriks, and they have also expressed interest in Kepler. I don’t know how likely an in-division trade would be, but it could be a way for the White Sox to shed some payroll to get some spending money if they have a free agent they like. Hendriks is on the last guaranteed year of a 3 year, $54 million pact signed with the Sox 2 offseasons ago, so the Twins would be taking on a good chunk of cash, but they would be getting a legit closer. The Sox would gladly take Kepler to strengthen their rather bleak defensive outfield. I don't think Kepler is enough to do it, so the Twins would have to throw in a prospect, so I said Noah Miller. He hasn’t been great with the bat thus far in pro ball, but there are encouraging signs. He is also a great defender. I think that would be enough to get the Sox to trade away the main guy from their very strong bullpen, but it would all rely on the Twins interest in such a deal.
     
    As I mentioned above, there will be mixed reactions to these proposals. In my personal opinion I don't think some of these should be made, it is just providing a baseline of what to expect if an actual trade was done. This is the first part of my mock trades, with the second part involving position players. I just figured it would get very long if I added the position players onto this article. I would love to hear any feedback you may have in the comments, and what you like or dislike about these proposals. Thank you for reading!
     
  6. cjm0926

    A Trend With Twins First Basemen

    By cjm0926,


    Twins
    Like many other baseball fans, I am very bored during this lockout. There are no free agent rumblings or really much of anything in the baseball world currently. I was doing some research on Kirilloff, and something got me thinking. Alex Kirilloff is a young, left-handed hitting first baseman, who projects to be the first baseman of the future for the Twins. The Twins seem to have a history with left-handed hitting first basemen. Some of those first basemen were named Kent Hrbek, Justin Morneau, and Joe Mauer. I am sure you can see where I am going with this, so I will just get into the article.

    Kent Hrbek held down first base for 13 years for the Minnesota Twins. Kent got a glimpse of the big leagues in 1981. In 24 games, he hit .239 with a homer. He also posted an 85 OPS+ (100 is league average) which would be his last time being a below average hitter until his last season in 1994 when he posted a 99 OPS+. He became a full time starter in 1982 and retired at the end of the 1994 season. He was a great hitter with even better defense. Throughout his career he built up a 38.6 WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Over his 14 year career he hit .282 with 293 home runs and 1086 RBI’s in 6192 at bats. He had a 128 OPS+ over his career, making him a well above average hitter. In comparison, Freddie Freeman, one of the best first baseman throughout the 2010’s, holds a career 138 OPS+. Kent was very consistent throughout his career, until the last 2 or 3 years where he dealt with injuries. The odd thing about Kent’s career is that he was an All-Star only one time, which was in his first full year in 1982. He didn’t even make an All-Star team when he was 2nd place for MVP in 1984. Part of that is because he played in the steroid era, when some of the best hitters of all time played, steroids or not. Many of the AL All-Star first baseman awards throughout Hrbek’s career went to Eddie Murray, Mark McGwire, and Frank Thomas. Although Kent Hrbek doesn’t have all of the accolades such as gold gloves and all stars to show off, he had a very good career and is one of the best players in Twins history.
    When Hrbek retired in 1994 until Justin Morneau took over 1B full time in 2004, multiple names split time there. The most notable was Doug Mientkewicz. Also some dude named David Ortiz played there for a few years, I wonder how he turned out? Anyways, Morneau took over 1B in 2004 when Mientkewicz was traded to the Boston Red Sox. Morneau instantly became a fan favorite, hitting .271 with 19 home runs in his first year. He was a well above league average hitter, posting a 122 OPS+. He underwent a bit of a sophomore slump in 2005 before breaking out in a huge way the next year. In 2006 Morneau won the AL MVP by hitting .321 with 34 home runs and 130 RBI. He continued to mash over the next couple years, and signed a 6 year, $80 million extension before the 2008 season. Morneau played in 163 regular season games in 2008, and the contract seemed to be paying off. In 2010, Justin Morneau’s career changed in a huge way. On July 7, 2010 in a game against the Toronto Blue Jays, Justin Morneau slid into second base trying to break up a double play when he was struck in the head by Blue Jays infielder John McDonald. It was a play that had happened hundreds of times without anything bad happening, but this time it did. Morneau had a concussion and was out for the rest of the 2010 season. He was never the same player after that day. At the 2013 trade deadline the Twins traded Morneau to the Pirates for Alex Presley and Duke Welker. Morneau won the 2014 NL batting title with the Rockies, and played his last year with the White Sox 2016. He officially retired in January of 2018 after not playing in 2017 marking the end of a good career. Morneau posted 22.9 out of a 27 total career WAR in a Twins uniform. He had 1318 of his total 1603 hits with the Twins, and 221 of his 247 home runs with the twins. He also had 860 RBI’s in his career with the Twins, and was nearing 1000 for his whole career with 985 total RBI’s. Throughout his Twins 11 year tenure he posted a 121 OPS+. There is no doubt he had a good career but there will always be the thought of what could’ve been.
    Joe Mauer was made the full time 1B of the Twins in 2014 after Justin Morneau had served that role for nearly a decade. Mauer had been bitten by the injury bug many times in his career, which ultimately was the reason the Twins had him move over to 1B in 2014. Joe Mauer was drafted 1st overall in 2001 by the Minnesota Twins. He was drafted as a catcher and had played that position for over a decade before making his move to first base. He was on track to become one of the best catchers of all time, winning 3 batting titles, an MVP in 2006, 5 Silver Sluggers and 3 Gold Gloves. The Twins liked what they saw enough to give Mauer an 8 year, $184 million extension, which is still by far the biggest deal in franchise history. During the 2013 season, Mauer suffered a concussion after being hit in the facemask by a foul tip.  It was determined early in the following offseason that the Twins would move their franchise cornerstone to first base to preserve his health. Like his good friend Morneau, he was never the same player, which could be partly due to increasing age as well. Mauer played 5 seasons at first base before calling it a career. In his final game, he suited back up into his old catcher's gear to catch a pitch and was given an emotional standing ovation. When somebody mentions the Minnesota Twins, Mauer is often a name that comes to mind. He had that kind of impact on the Twins as a former 1st overall pick and hometown hero. He is at the top tier with franchise greats such as Harmon Killebrew, Rod Carew and Kirby Puckett. Mauer will likely join the National Baseball Hall of Fame in the coming years, and rightfully so. He ended his career with 2123 hits (.306 average),143 home runs, 923 RBI’s, a 124 OPS+, and a 55.2 career WAR. He also ended with accomplishments such as 5 Silver Sluggers, 3 Gold Gloves, 3 batting titles, 6 All-Star Game appearances, and last but certainly not least, a 2006 AL MVP Award. It will be exciting to see how his Hall of Fame case goes about in the coming years.
    All of that brings me to the point of this article, Alex Kirilloff. As you may have noticed, I went over 3 of the best first baseman in franchise history, which happens to be the position Kirilloff plays. Like the other 3, Kirilloff also bats left-handed (although that doesn’t matter much, just a coincidence). Kirilloff broke out in the minors in 2018, placing him high on many lists. He made his much awaited debut in 2020, although surprisingly in the postseason. He didn’t make the team out of spring training, but was up with the Twins not too long after. After his 59 game showing in the majors before his wrist injury, it looked like he would be the first baseman of the future. In the majors in 2021, he hit .251 with 8 home runs and 34 RBI’s with a 98 OPS+, which are not numbers that will wow you. However, he made plenty of hard contact, and looked like he belonged, but just had some back luck. I don't want to put massive expectations on him, but it certainly looks like he is poised to be our first baseman for the next decade. It should be fun to watch him for the next many years alongside the other top prospects we have in the system, but only time will tell. Thank you for reading, and Go Twins!!!
     
  7. cjm0926
    Prospects are exciting, but they do come with some risks. The Twins currently seem to have as deep of a system as ever, but until the prospects reach the majors, it doesn’t matter. Today I will be revisiting the 2018 Twins Top 30 Prospects, according to MLB Pipeline, going through #1 to #15 on the list, and give some reason for hope, and some for fear for the current crop.
     
    #1 Royce Lewis
    Acquired: Drafted 2017, 1st Overall
    Current Team: Twins Organization
    Royce Lewis was a bit of a surprise being drafted #1 overall in 2017, many believed it would be high school flamethrower Hunter Greene going to the Twins instead. He is still currently the #1 prospect in the Twins system. Royce Lewis has shown plenty to be excited about, but also has shown some concerns, especially tearing his ACL right before spring training in 2021. He figures to be the most important piece to the Twins success in the coming years, will he be able to live up to the hype?
     
    #2 Fernando Romero
    Acquired: Signed out of Dominican Republic in 2011, $260,000 Signing Bonus
    Current Team: Yokohama DeNA BayStars (Japan)
    Likely the biggest letdown on this list, Romero was a late find for the Twins, who had some competition in signing Romero. Ultimately, it all worked out and the Twins got a deal done. Romero played well in his first couple years of minor league ball before tearing his UCL and requiring Tommy John surgery, knocking him out of the 2014 and 2015 seasons. He came back and worked his way up to his debut in 2018, pitching well for a few starts and ended the season with a 4.69 ERA. The Twins tried to turn him into a bullpen piece in 2019, but to no avail. It failed miserably and he was sent back to the minors. In 2020 he could not get into the United States for Spring Training due to visa issues, and was ultimately released late in 2020.
     
    #3 Stephen Gonsalves
    Acquired: Drafted 2013, 110th Overall
    Current Team: Cubs Organization
    Another massive letdown. Unlike Romero, Gonsalves never found any big league success, even for a few starts. He was expected to go higher, but an incident where he lied to the dean of his high school was made public and as a result, he fell lower in the draft. The Twins signed him away from his San Diego college commitment. He only pitched 24.2 innings in the majors for the Twins, all in 2019 ending with a 6.57 ERA. He has been in multiple other organizations throughout the past 2 years, only having big league time with the Red Sox in 2021.

     
    #4 Nick Gordon 
    Acquired: Drafted 2013, 5th Overall
    Current Team: Twins
    Gordon has had a rather long journey to the big leagues. He was drafted very high in 2013 and posted solid stats in the minors, and was finally added to the 40-man after the 2018 season. Gordon’s season was limited in 2019 due to injuries, and he endured a rough battle with Covid-19 during the cancelled 2020 minor league season, knocking him out of any possible baseball activity. He finally made his long awaited debut with the Twins, playing his way into a possible future role as a super-utility man. I personally am a big fan of Gordon and think he will be a good player for the Twins in the coming years. Fun fact: Outside of baseball, Nick Gordon also raps with his stage name of G Cinco.
     
    #5 Wander Javier
    Acquired: Signed out of Dominican Republic in 2015, $4 Million Signing Bonus
    Current Team: Twins Organization
    When the Twins signed Wander Javier out of the DR, they gave him the highest signing bonus in franchise history, breaking Miguel Sano’s $3.15 Million in 2010. The first 2 years of his professional career looked good, and he could be a big contributor for the Twins in the future. Since then, not much has gone right. He has battled injuries and has been inconsistent to say the least. On the bright side, he is still only 22 years old, and plays a premium position, shortstop. If he can find what he seemed to once have he still has enough time to become a solid Major Leaguer.
     
    #6 Alex Kirilloff
    Acquired: Drafted 2016, 15th Overall
    Current Team: Twins
    Alex Kirilloff was drafted out of Pennsylvania as a good hitting corner outfielder. He didn’t disappoint in his first taste of pro ball in 2016, but in 2017 he needed Tommy John surgery, knocking him out for the year. He really broke out in 2018 and earned a top 20 rank in most prospect lists. Kirilloff had a good first showing in the MLB in 2021, but just had some bad luck on batted balls as well as a wrist injury ended his season early. Although he can play outfield, it appears he will be the Twins first baseman of the future.
     
    #7 Brusdar Graterol
    Acquired: Signed out of Venezuela in 2014, $150,00 Signing Bonus
    Current Team: Dodgers
    Saying Brusdar throws hard is an understatement, he throws extremely hard. He also has good offspeed. The Twins traded him along with Luke Raley to the Dodgers in exchange for Kenta Maeda. Graterol has only been used in the bullpen by the Dodgers, and rightfully so. He had posted mixed results. Personally, I am content with the trade. Sure, Brusdar could have been a good bullpen arm for the next 5+ years, but we got a near Cy Young season with Maeda. An elbow injury ended his season early and will likely eat up his whole 2022 season, but he has shown how good of a pitcher he can be, and in my opinion, you cannot be too upset with the trade.
     
    #8 Brent Rooker
    Acquired: Drafted 2017, 35th Overall
    Current Team: Twins
    What could have been, and what might still be. Rooker has shown off the light-tower power he was drafted for, but also hasn’t been very consistent. He has proven just about everything he has needed to in the minors, but can’t quite figure it out in the majors. Over his 2 partial year Major League career, he has had a 32.1% strikeout rate. He also plays below average defense in right and left field. If he can find his swing in the majors, he could be a great DH or good corner outfielder, but time is running out, especially since he is already 27.
     
    #9 Blayne Enlow
    Acquired: Drafted 2017, 76th Overall
    Current Team: Twins Organization
    The Twins paid Enlow over twice slot value at $2 million, to keep him from going to LSU. He had pitched very well in the minors, but has been injured a fair amount too. A few weeks into the 2021 season it was revealed that he would need Tommy John surgery, keeping him out until mid-2022. The Twins have shown they have faith in him though, adding him to the 40-man roster this offseason rather than risk losing him. He is still young enough though, he is currently 22 and will be 23 on opening day. I think he will become a good starter in the majors.
     
    #10 Lewin Diaz
    Acquired: Signed out of Dominican Republic in 2014, $1.4 Million Signing Bonus
    Current Team: Marlins
    Lewin Diaz was the guy we traded for Sergio Romo at the 2019 trade deadline. More importantly, along with Romo, we obtained Chris Vallimont, who has shown signs of brilliance, but also has had trouble. Lewin Diaz can hold his own at first base defensively, but he has had trouble hitting in the majors. He has hit well enough in the minors, but like Rooker, has never figured it out at the major league level. In his Major League career over 161 AB’s, he owns a .193 batting average. He is currently 25 years old.
     
    #11 Akil Baddoo
    Acquired: Drafted 2016, 74th Overall
    Current Team: Tigers
    The one that got away. The Tigers selected Akil Baddoo in the 2020 Rule 5 draft. Nobody could have expected he would play this well. He only had one really good season in the minors, that being in 2017. In 2019, early in the season it was revealed he would need Tommy John surgery, which seems to be a recurring theme in Twins outfield prospects on this list. Anyways, the Tigers selected him in the Rule 5 draft and he was a well above average hitter in the majors, posting a 113 OPS+.You cannot really blame the Twins for losing him, they appeared to have all of the outfield depth in the world, and Baddoo still looked multiple years away from the show.
     
     
    #12 Lewis Thorpe
    Acquired: Signed out of Australia in 2012, $500,000 Signing Bonus
    Current Team: Twins Organization
    There were reports that he was finally reaching his potential this past spring training. He had increased fastball velocity and was in the best shape of his life. None of that translated to games that mattered. He was signed as a crafty lefty out of Australia in 2012, with a fastball sitting around 90 MPH. He has had no big league success to this point, in all 3 years he has appeared in a major league game (2019 ,20, 21), he has been below average. The only way that seems possible for him to stick in the majors is if he becomes a bullpen arm, and like many other Twins fans, I am not buying it.
     
    #13 Lamonte Wade Jr.
    Acquired: Drafted 2015, 260th Overall
    Current Team: Giants
    Another one that got away. Lamonte Wade Jr. looked like he could have been a decent 4th outfielder for the Twins. The Twins chose Jake Cave over him, and sent Lamonte packing to San Francisco in exchange for project piece Shaun Anderson. Anderson ended up pitching less than 10 innings for the Twins before being released. Wade Jr. on the other hand, broke out in a huge way. He posted a 117 OPS+ for the Giants and looks to be a big piece of their future. He even received MVP votes in 2021. For the record, I always liked Lamonte Wade over Cave, but no one could have expected he would be this good. I am happy Wade broke out, and even happier it wasn’t for an AL team.
     
    #14 Travis Blankenhorn
    Acquired: Drafted 2015, 80th Overall
    Current Team: Mets
    Blankenhorn was pretty average throughout his minor league career for the Twins. His ceiling seemed to be a good utility player. He made his debut in 2020, going 1 for 3 with a double. He played one game for the Twins in 2021, as a defensive replacement. He made a costly error against the Athletics, which was paired with a Luis Arraez throwing error, which cost the game. That game seemed to send the season to the trash can and kind of lost hope for everyone. Days after the error, he was DFA’d and picked up by the Mets, which is where he currently plays. It never seemed meant to be with the Twins, and I hope for the best of luck in the future for Travis.
     
    #15 Zack Littell
    Acquired: From Yankees (Traded for Jaime Garcia at 2017 Deadline)
    Current Team: Giants
    Littell was originally drafted by the Mariners, then a few years later traded to the Yankees. Soon after, he was sent to Minnesota along with Dietrich Enns, in exchange for Jaime Garcia and cash considerations, in one of the most puzzling trades in team history. Littell had success out of the pen in 2019, and then looked lost in 2020. I was always a believer in him but it doesn't really matter what I think. He was eventually released and picked up by the San Francisco Giants. Littell rebounded in a huge way in 2021, posting a 2.92 ERA for the Giants in 61.2 innings. He looks to be a reliable bullpen arm for them in the coming years.

    Notable 16-30
    #19 Mitch Garver
    Acquired: Drafted 2013, 260th Overall
    Current Team:Twins
    Garver broke out fairly late in his career, during his age 27 season. However, he broke out in a huge way, cementing himself as one of the best offensive catchers in the MLB. As a result of Garver breaking out late, he is already getting up there in age for a catcher. He will be 31 on opening day, which is decently old for a catcher. If he is still with the Twins after this offseason, he looks like he will catch for a few more years, and then it is likely he will transition over to a 1B/DH role. There is also a small chance he will play one of the most physically demanding positions in sports, catcher, for 5+ more years, due to how Baldelli rests his catchers.
     
    #23 Luis Arraez
    Acquired: Signed out of Venezuela in 2013, $40,000 Signing Bonus
    Current Team: Twins
    You always know what you will get with Arraez, high average, not a whole lot of power. That is what has made him one of my favorite Twins to watch. Some people believe Arraez will be dealt this offseason, but only time will tell. He currently holds down a utility role for the Twins. He broke out defensively this year, becoming a top 5 defensive 3rd baseman in 2021. He may have found his defensive home for the future, but he will have to beat out young buck Jose Miranda, who is mentioned soon in this list. Arraez also carries injury concerns, he has torn an ACL during his minor league career, and overall has “balky” knees. I think he could be a great leadoff hitter for the next 10 years if his body can hold up.
     
    #25 Ben Rortvedt
    Acquired: Drafted 2016, 56th Overall
    Current Team: Twins
    Like Arraez, you know what you are getting with Rortvedt. Rortvedt isn’t a force with the bat, but does have some power. He is highly regarded for his defense, profiling as the best in the system. With the Twins surplus of catching, he will likely serve as the 3rd catcher, playing most of his games in Saint Paul. It is nice to have him on hand though, as there could be some moves involving catchers after the lockout, and freak injuries happen with catchers. If he can bump his offense to average for a catcher, his defense will carry him to being an above average MLB catcher.
     
    #28 Jose Miranda
    Acquired: Drafted 2016, 73rd Overall
    Current Team: Twins Organization
    It wasn’t until this year that Miranda broke out, and he did it in a big way. Everybody knew Miranda had good tools, maybe they didn’t know they were this good though. He finally put them all together and hit over .340 on the season with 30 bombs between AA and AAA. He looks like he will be the 3rd baseman of the future for Minnesota, but stats don’t matter until the show, so we'll just have to wait and see. He is still fairly young, being 23 years old and he is one of, if not the best hitter in the whole system.
     
    This list should provide a good realization that prospects are just prospects. Some are more likely to contribute at the MLB, hence the rankings, but odd things can happen. Also, it should show that lower ranking prospects can provide a big impact in the big leagues, so don’t always write them off. This list likely brought up some names you have forgotten, and some you wish you could forget *cough cough Baddoo* The future of this team is resting on their current farm system, which should hopefully provide fun baseball for years to come. After all, even Mike Trout was a prospect once. Thank you for reading. Leave a comment. Go Twins!!!
     
  8. cjm0926

    My 2022 Offseason Blueprint, Round 2: Manaea, Iglesias

    By cjm0926,


    Offseason Blueprint
    Some of you may have read my article I wrote about 3 weeks ago with my plans for the 2022 offseason. If you want to check it out, the link is here I had us signing Stroman, Story, trading for Luis Severino (Which I still think would be a great idea), and trading for Zac Gallen. Obviously that wasn't going to happen and surely won't happen now. I decided to come up with a bit more of a realistic offseason we could possibly have. With free agents now signing it affects who we can go after. As a matter of fact, Alex Cobb to the Giants came out as a was writing this article. The Twins future seems much more bright with the Buxton extension. It was looking like we would go into a full rebuild not more than 3 days ago. Without further ado, the blueprint.
    Edit: Kirilloff salary should be $0.6 Million, bringing team total to $125.45 Million

    There are a few new names in this blueprint, but there is a solid chunk of guys that will be returning. I made a few trades, and signed a few free agents. The free agents include one of the top starting pitchers, Marcus Stroman. I sign Marcus to a 4 year, $80 million contract. For the other free agents I sign a starting pitcher, 2 bullpen arms, and a shortstop. The other starting pitcher is one we are familiar with in Twins territory, Michael Pineda. He will eat quality innings for the team. He is not a top of the rotation starter, and has some injury issues, but it seems like you can always rely on Big Mike to keep you in the ballgame. It is not an exciting move, but one that could pay off. I sign him to a 2 year, $16 million deal. Next, I sign 2 bullpen arms. They are both low risk, moderate to high reward. The first one is Brad Hand, he is signed to a 1 year, $2.5 million deal. I then sign Corey Knebel to a 1 year, $5 million deal. They are 2 guys that are veterans and have had success, so it is pretty self explanatory. Lastly, at shortstop, I sign Jose Iglesias to a 1 year, $3 million deal. He is merely a stopgap for Royce Lewis, or whoever will take the reigns at shortstop in the near future. Now onto the trades.
    For the trades I make a trade with the Yankees, and the Athletics. The Athletics have publicly said they are looking to reduce payroll drastically this offseason. They have 3 good starting pitchers many teams will be interested in. I choose Sean Manaea. He costs the least in terms of trade value, since he is a free agent next offseason and is the most expensive of the 3. During Manaea's career, he has posted a 107 ERA+, making him a decently above league average pitcher during that time. For the trade, I would make it a bit more interesting , taking more salary off of Oaklands hands. I am including Stephen Piscotty in the trade. He is under contract through this year as well with a club option next year. He is set to make $7.25 million this year, which could help with the trade package for Manaea. For Piscotty and Manaea, I am sending Oakland Emmanuel Rodriguez, an 18 year old outfielder, and Drew Strotman. You may be thinking screw Piscotty, we only want Manaea, but I have a reason of getting him due to another trade I will make. If Manaea plays well during the season, we would extend him for 2-3 more years, to gain certainty in the rotation. For my second and last trade, I trade with the dark side. I give up Max Kepler and Mitch Garver for top SS prospect, Oswald Peraza. The Yankees are looking for catching help and don't have a centerfielder. Mitch Garver provides a big upgrade to Gary Sanchez for the Yankees. The reason I am trading Garver is because he is getting to that age where he will likely not catch for much longer. 1B/DH and catchers values differ immensely. I also trade Kepler to man CF in the Bronx. As much as I hate to say it, I think Kepler could blossom playing for Yankees, with the short porch in right. In return, we get Oswald Peraza. The Yankees currently have 2 good shortstop prospects, Peraza and Anthony Volpe. The Yankees and all of baseball value Volpe way more, and rightfully so. I think Volpe is virtually untouchable, so I go after Peraza. Peraza is 10 months older than Volpe, but has posted good results in AAA, although it was a small sample size. Volpe hasn't been above A-ball yet.
    The rest of the lineup is pretty straightforward. In the infield we have Jeffers at catcher, Kirilloff at 1B, Polanco at 2B, Iglesias at SS which I have explained above, and Donaldson at 3B. 3B could be shared by 3 different guys, the other two being Arraez and Miranda. There is a high chance that either Donaldson or Arraez spend time on the IL so that could be a chance for Miranda to claim his spot on the Twins for the long term. In the outfield I have Larnach in left. It may still be a bit premature but I think Larnach will figure something out and become a beast with his bat. I centerfield we have Byron Buxton. It is so nice to say that knowing we will also have him for the next 7 years, even if he is injury prone. In right we have the man we got from Oakland, Stephen Piscotty. That is not an exciting addition but if he can be at least average, I would be ok, especially since it is only 1 year. On the bench we have Celestino as the 4th OF. At the moment Jake Cave is slotted in as the 4th OF, which many fans don't like to see and I am sure they would agree with me putting Celestino there. For Utility we have Arraez, who as I mentioned could also be the 3B, and Nick Gordon. Gordon provides tons of defensive value, playing CF and SS, among other positions. He can be a 4th OF and also spend time at SS with Jose Iglesias. Since we traded Garver away, the backup catcher is defensive wizard, Ben Rortvedt.
    On the pitching side of things, we have Marcus Stroman as the ace, Manaea as the 2, Pineda the 3rd starter, and Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober manning the 4 and 5 slots. It obviously isn't a world beating rotation, but it is a lot better than it looks at this moment. Is has moderate upside and not a lot of risk. In the bullpen we have some solid options. For more of the low leverage innings, we have guys like Hand, Moran, Thielbar, and Minaya. For some of the more high leverage innings we have Knebel, Rogers, Duffey, and Alcala. Obviously things could change with performance and injuries. Bullpens are far from a given, as they have some of the most drastic changes from year to year. But overall, this pitching staff will not wow you, but could impress you during the season.
    Overall I believe this is a solid lineup that could win you 80 or so games depending on how you play your cards. Obviously the Twins are not World Series contenders in 2022, and are playing more for when some of our current top prospects graduate to re-enforce the team. This way makes us competitive, with a chance to possibly do something, without selling the farm. A lot of things could happen during the 2022 season with the Twins. In 2021, after Acuna got hurt for the Braves, their season looked like it was ending, but they ended up winning a world series. I am not saying to expect anything like that for the Twins in 2022, but don't completely rule them out.
  9. cjm0926

    A Possible Pitcher Trade Target: Luis Severino

    By cjm0926,


    Trade Targets
    As some of you may have already noticed, I like to think outside the box. I could have written an article about an A’s starter we should target or a Marlins starter we should get, but I came up with Luis Severino. It is unlikely the Twins would swing a trade with the dark side for Severino, but here is why it could be exciting.

    Luis Severino was signed out of the Dominican Republic by the New York Yankees in late 2011. He signed for a bonus of $225,000. The Colorado Rockies were originally going to sign Severino for that price, but the Yankees matched the price and Severino signed with the Yankees since he liked them growing up. Severino has been with the Yankees ever since then, making his debut on August 5th, 2015, at only 21 years old. He made that start due to former Twin, Michael Pineda, getting injured in the previous days. In his debut, he threw 5 strong innings, allowing 2 hits, 1 earned run, and punched out 7 Red Sox.
    Severino continued to pitch well in 2015, ending the year with 61.1 IP, and a 2.89 ERA. He also had a 141 ERA+ (100 being league average), but had a 4.37 FIP. 2016 was a year to forget for Luis, pitching to a 5.83 ERA in 71 innings. He was well below league average, posting a 74 ERA+. The funny thing is that in his dominant 2015 showing he posted a 4.37 FIP, but in his awful 2016 showing he only posted a slightly worse 4.48 FIP. He bounced back extremely well in 2017, being named to his first All-Star team and was 3rd in AL Cy Young voting. He pitched to a 2.98 ERA, 152 ERA+, and a much better 3.08 FIP in 193.1 Innings. He had continued success in 2018, pitching to a 3.39 ERA, 124 ERA+, and an even better 2.95 FIP in 191.1 innings. During the 2019 offseason, Severino inked a 4 year, $40 Million extension with the Yankees. The deal includes a club option for a 5th year, being in 2023. Then, the injury bug bit Luis Severino hard. Right before the season he was diagnosed with Rotator Cuff Inflammation, which knocked him out to start the season. He then suffered a Grade 2 Lat Strain which knocked him out for an additional 6 weeks. Severino did not appear in any rehab games until September. He made a few starts in the minors and was brought back up for 2 late September starts, the first being September 17th, against the Los Angeles Angels. He pitched 12 dominant innings in 2019, featuring a 1.50 ERA and a 304 ERA+. He made 2 starts during the 2019 Postseason, one being against our beloved Twins, the other against the Astros in the ALCS. During the 2020 offseason it was revealed that he would have to undergo Tommy John surgery to repair a partially torn UCL and they would also have to remove some bone chips. Severino was set to return in mid-2021 but was set back multiple times. First, he suffered a groin injury during a June rehab start, and then in August he was again set back for “not feeling right.” He eventually made his much awaited return for the Yankees. He pitched 4 games out of the bullpen in late September. He pitched a total of 6 innings and did not give up an earned run.
    There is no doubt that when Severino is on, he is as electric as anyone. Severino was once one of the game's most exciting young arms, lighting up the radar gun on a regular basis. Now he is forgotten by many. He strikes out hitters at a high clip and walks have never been a serious issue. During his breakout 2017 campaign, he ranked in the 89th percentile for K rate, sitting at 29.4%. He also ranked in the 81st percentile for BB rate, being at only 6.5%. There are not any recent advanced stats to compare it to, due to such small sample size in the past few years. One thing I will compare though is his average fastball velocity. During his 2017 and 2018 seasons his heater averaged 97.5 and 97.6 MPH respectively. But during the 2021 season his fastball only averaged 95.4 MPH. It has obviously declined over the past few seasons, but that could go back up with stretching him back out into being a starter. The funny thing is that he used to gain velocity during the games. He would tick up 1 or 2 MPH on average throughout his innings. One encouraging sign is during 2019 and 2021, he struck out hitters over 35% in both years. That is likely due to a small sample size but even with a little decline it would still be elite. Below is his Baseball Savant profile for his 2017 season.

    Luis Severino has an athletic build being 6 feet 2 inches and 220 pounds. He is a great athlete, and it doesn't seem like injuries changed that a ton. With Severino, you are getting a 4 pitch starter. He throws his fastball the majority of the time. His secondary pitch is his slider. As we all know, the slider is a pitch this front office really likes. His close-second best off-speed pitch is his changeup, and it can get very nasty. His last pitch is a cutter, which he throws rarely. His changeup is rather fast, topping out in the low 90's. He even throws his slider a bit slower than the changeup, averaging in the mid to high 80's. He has a good fastball that can run up in the upper 90's, reaching 100 MPH at times, which is rather crazy for a starter. Severino has the ceiling of an ace, but a floor of spending a season on the injured list. Worst case scenario is if he stays healthy is he can be a good bullpen arm. I would definitely be willing to take the risk.
    Luis Severino is still on his 4 year, $40 Million contract I mentioned above. 2022 will be the 4th year and he will earn $11 Million. There is also a club option for 2023 for $15 Million. If Luis shows what he can do during the 2022 season, there is no doubt any team would pick up the 2023 option. But if he still has the injury bug, the team isn’t on the hook for any later than 2022.
    A trade for Severino all depends on the Yankees. There is a very solid chance they wouldn’t even listen to offers for him, due to what he could regain. They made him untouchable as a prospect while they were trying to make deadline acquisitions for the postseason. There is also a chance that they would want to get Major League talent for him to boost their current team and be willing to send him away. The Yankees current rotation is headlined by Gerrit Cole, and after that there is nothing too certain. They have major league guys like Jameson Taillon, Jordan Montgomery, Domingo German, Luis Gil (The guy we traded for Jake Cave), and Nestor Cortes. All of those guys have had major league success, just many haven’t sustained it. They also have a few pitching prospects nearing the majors. A package that I could see happening for Severino could be Max Kepler and maybe another lower end prospect. Last year during the trade deadline, the Yankees showed interest in Kepler, but to no avail. Baseball Trade Values lists Severino at 11.4, and Kepler at 23.6 which seems way too generous. The Yankees do have a need for outfielders though. Currently on their roster they only have Aaron Judge, Joey Gallo, and Giancarlo Stanton. The Yankees do not have any top outfield prospects besides Jasson Dominguez, who is still 3 or more years away from the show. Giancarlo Stanton isn’t much of an outfielder anymore and will likely be a full time DH. Judge is capable of playing centerfield but Max Kepler could be a defensive upgrade. Max’s bat could really play at Yankee stadium, with the short porch in right. It would be tough for many fans to see Max go, but if it could bring a high upside arm like this, I would be all for it, even though there is high risk.
    Severino is currently 27 and will be 28 by Opening Day, which is still fairly young by pitching standards. He has obviously been injured a lot during the past few seasons, but did show he could be a workhorse, pitching almost 200 innings 2 seasons in a row. He will certainly be limited on his innings in 2021, just to what extent? The Twins will likely have to rely on a bounceback candidate if they want to seriously contend. Severino is as much of a candidate as anyone, just prying him away may be tricky. I think he could be an amazing buy low pickup for the Twins, and he has 2 years of possible team control left. Obviously, this has a low chance of happening, but let me know what you think about it. Thanks for reading!
     
     
     
  10. cjm0926
    Recently I was thinking about the future of the Twins past this offseason and was wondering what a future roster would look like. Everybody is so wrapped up in this year's offseason, and rightfully so, that they are willing to sell off the farm to try and jump back into contention with a loaded White Sox team in our division. Personally, I would like to be competitive in 2022, but wouldn’t expect to be World Series contenders without ruining our future. With that being said, I was bored and I drew up an idea for a possible 2025 lineup for the Twins. The kicker though, was no free agent additions. It is too easy to pencil in certain guys that we COULD sign. I went with all home grown talent on this one. I also didn’t set a 26-man limit, moreso just an open roster, to allow more creativity. Without further ado, the 2025 lineup .
    Starting Lineup (Age on 2025 Opening Day in parentheses)
    C - Ryan Jeffers (27)
    1B - Alex Kirilloff (27)
    2B - Jorge Polanco (31)
    3B - Jose Miranda (26)
    SS - Royce Lewis (25)
    LF - Austin Martin (26)
    CF - Byron Buxton (31)
    RF - Trevor Larnach (28)
    DH - Aaron Sabato (25)
    Bench
    Backup Catcher - Ben Rortvedt (27)
    Utility - Luis Arraez (27), or Keoni Cavaco (23)
    4th Outfielder - Gilberto Celestino (26), Emmanuel Rodriguez (22) ETA 2024, Misael Urbina (22) ETA 2023
    Other Options - Matt Wallner (27), Brent Rooker (30)
    This plan really relies on many prospects to live up to a good chunk of their potential, which doesn’t always happen. Hopefully by 2025 many of these guys will have 1-3 years of Major League time though and will be ready. To start it off at catcher, I have Ryan Jeffers. I would assume the Twins could platoon Jeffers and Rortvedt, not making one of them too much more of a Catcher #1 than the other. I think they could both be above average catchers, Jeffers due to the bat, and Rortvedt from the defense. Next, I have Kirilloff manning first base. I think he will be a huge piece for the Twins for the next many years, he could also spend a little time in the outfield if needed, or DH, and give some time at 1B to Sabato. Jorge Polanco is at 2B, there are a couple option years for Polanco around $10 Million leading to 2025, but if he plays anywhere near he did this year, it should be a no brainer. At 3B I have Jose Miranda. I could see where Arraez could take over 3B and Miranda become utility, or visa-versa. They could even split time and the other be a utility man. At SS I have Royce Lewis. I think he is the SS of the future. He can provide good defense, and with a few tweaks his bat could really play. In left field I have Austin Martin. I felt like he could stick at SS for a while, but after some recent research, my opinion really swayed. I think Martin could become a superstar left fielder though. He can provide above average defense and has a super high ceiling with the bat. For centerfield, it all relies on the Twins retaining Buxton. I am speaking for all of Twins Territory when I say this, EXTEND BUXTON!!!! In right field I have Trevor Larnach, his defense is poor, but his bat could really play. Hopefully when we extend Buxton, that can help make Larnach’s defense look better for years to come. Lastly, at DH I have Sabato. DH could very likely be a revolving door where everyone cycles through, or, if Sabato can show something he could be the primary DH. Sabato has light-tower power, and a good eye at the plate. He had a rough start to his professional career but things seemed to be looking up towards the end.
    On the bench I have Rortvedt as the backup catcher. That is very interchangeable though. For Utility, I have Luis Arraez and Keoni Cavaco. You could change Arraez and Miranda, whichever one continues to perform gets 3B. Cavaco has underperformed but has skills to be a solid Major Leaguer. For the 4th Outfielder I have Celestino, Rodriguez, and Urbina. Celestino should be Major League ready in 2022. I am showing optimism for Rodriguez and Urbina. They both may be too young to take on a 4th Outfielder role in 2025, but it could happen. They will set up nicely for the future though. You could take one or even two of the three on your bench. Lastly I have Rooker and Wallner. I truly don’t know how they fit. They both profile similarly, high strikeout rate but light-tower power. Wallner does provide slightly better defense though. Either would be a below average defensive corner outfielder and/or a power hitting DH.
     
    Rotation
    Jordan Balazovic (26)
    Simeon Woods-Richardson (24)
    Blayne Enlow (26)
    Cole Sands (27)
    Josh Winder (28)
    Bailey Ober (29)
    Joe Ryan (28)
    There is plenty that could go right here, but also plenty that could go wrong. The Twins have lots of guys that profile as back of the rotation guys. The only 2 on this list with big league experience are Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober. Balazovic and SWR have the most potential to pitch at the top of a big league rotation. Enlow was profiled as a 2-3 in the past, but has been out due to Tommy John surgery, so we will see how he returns. Although there are all these scouting reports, only time will tell. Heck, Jacob DeGrom, the best pitcher on the planet, was drafted as a shortstop out of college. Some guys could find something out and become the ace of a staff, and some guys could flat out forget how to pitch, only time will tell. Although there are all of these potential arms, it is highly unlikely the Twins roll with all home grown talent, but for the sake of this article, I will. Lastly, I didn’t set a 5-man rotation because I felt that was too restricting. Rather, I added guys that have serious potential to stay in a big league rotation and could be sorted out any which way.
    Bullpen
    Jorge Alcala (29)
    Jhoan Duran (27)
    Drew Strotman (28)
    Louie Varland (27)
    Chris Vallimont (28)
    Matt Canterino (27)
    Jovani Moran (27)
    As you may notice, this bullpen is made up of mostly current minor league starters. One thing that all of these guys have in common (minus Alcala), is that they are currently mostly successful starters but aren’t projected to be great starters in the majors, but they have great stuff. Great stuff is crucial to becoming a great bullpen arm. A bullpen is so unpredictable (*cough cough Alex Colome*), so there are really a lot of routes a team could take. This plan is a super big shot in the dark, because 2025 is 3 full seasons away, and a lot of things could change. It is a given that the bullpen will have some free agents in it. These guys listed haven’t seen an inning in the Majors besides Alcala. I think Alcala or Duran could become the closer due to their great stuff and high velocity. I just included some guys that could become good bullpen pieces for the future, like the rotation, in no certain order.
     
    Making a roster for 3 seasons down the road is really just a shot in the dark, but I had fun doing it. A lot of guys' contracts expire before then so you have to rely on the prospects a lot. I also didn’t include a few guys who will be under team control past 2025. Those guys include Dobnak, Gordon, Jax, etc. These guys could very likely stick, I just don’t see it happening due to the upcoming wave of prospects. If you see anything you could change, drop a comment, would love to hear some feedback!
     
  11. cjm0926
    I will start it off by saying, this is just an idea, I am not saying it should or will happen. I am also not saying it is a terrible idea and it could possibly work. With that being said, here we go.
    The Twins currently have 2 very good catchers, one being Mitch Garver, a well above average batting catcher who is nearly 31 years old. The other, Ryan Jeffers, a 24 year old catcher who underperformed with his bat this past season. While neither player is an AL MVP candidate Twins are likely set for the coming years with this duo. But I recently had a thought that I will explain below.
    Mitch Garver is a beast with the bat, no doubt about it. But he is getting up there in age for a catcher, being 31 years old by next opening day. If I remember right, that is the age that Joe Mauer moved over to 1B full time. Currently, the Twins are set at first base, with Alex Kirilloff, the expected 1st Baseman for the better part of the 2020's, and Miguel Sano, who appeared to have finally figured something out towards the end of the 2021 season, holding down the position. Nobody is saying that Garver will not catch for another 5 years, but the odds are pointing against it. Garver had a career year in 2019, a horrible year in 2020, and looked to have bounced back in 2021, but was injured for a lot of it. Mitch Garver currently has a 10.9 trade rating on baseballtradevalues.com.
    Ryan Jeffers was a former highly regarded prospect within the Twins system. He debuted in 2020, hitting .273 with 3 homers in 62 Plate Appearances. However, in 2021 he took a massive step back offensively, hitting below the Mendoza line, although he showed solid power hitting 14 home runs in 293 Plate Appearances. He also struck out at a nearly 37% clip. Jeffers was drafted as a bat first catcher, but has turned into a very good defender, which is more important for a catcher than any other position, being directly involved in every play. Jeffers is rated at 19.2 on baseballtradevalues.com.
    Now, we look at the primary catchers for the 2 best teams in their own respective leagues, Travis d'Arnaud and Martin Maldonado. We will start off with d'Arnaud. He hit .220 with 7 homers in the regular season for the eventual World Series champions, the Atlanta Braves, and posted an 0.2 WAR. Maldonado for the Astros hit .172 with 12 bombs, posting a -0.1 WAR. I am not saying that just because these teams had average to below average hitting catchers with very strong defense it improved their World Series odds, but I am saying there could be something to be taken away from that.
    Catcher is the most important on the field defensively, calling pitches, controlling baserunners, aligning defense, etc. But offensively they can get away with things that other positions can't like low averages, low power, etc. which makes a lot of sense. Catching puts a lot of wear and tear on the body causing many to eventually move away from the position or retire early, like Posey and Mauer. 
    The Twins have frankly been spoiled at the position offensively since 2019, and they could try a different approach to fill other holes in 2022. The Twins have a massive need for top of the rotation type pitching, and with many 2022 offseason blueprints being posted on Twins Daily, a catcher is often in a trade to acquire said pitching. I have seen both Garver and Jeffers name thrown around in those blueprints as trade bait for a high end starter. But what if I said the Twins should trade both of them. They both have very good value and could be a solid part of a package to bring back good pitchers. Jeffers has about twice as much value according to a website, but Garver could be a huge addition to almost any team being a veteran and above average hitter. It is better to trade a low risk player away a year too early rather than a year too late. Especially with catchers and freak injuries.
    Say the Twins do trade both away, then what would we do? The Twins have Rortvedt making the league minimum and providing stellar defense, even better than Garver and Jeffers. Rortvedt's huge downside is his bat. In 2021 Rortvedt hit .169 with 3 homers in 98 Plate Appearances. He also struck out at around a 30% rate. If Rortvedt can hit around .200 and cut down the strikeouts a bit, he could become a solid catcher for years to come. That solves half of the puzzle, now what do the Twins do about the other catcher? There are many low risk, low reward catchers available in free agency this offseason that could be had for 1 or 2 year deals at very low prices. Possibly a right handed bat to platoon with Rortvedt, a lefty, like the Twins did in 2019 with Castro and Garver. Although Rortvedt and another catcher wouldn't be as nice offensively as Jeffers and Garver, it could be very nice defensively, which is what a catching tandem needs most. For a catcher 3 or 4, they can call on a guy in AAA or AA to fill in for a week or two.
    What I have noticed is that an offensive catcher is just a cherry on top, not needed, hence the Astros and Braves making the World Series with their average offensive catchers. Defense is needed much more and strong offense can only overshadow bad defense so much *cough cough Gary Sanchez*   I am also not saying the Twins are as talented as Houston or Atlanta at other positions, but filling the holes through trading the catchers could make it much closer. Although this isn't the prettiest or nicest plan to hear as a fan, it could be what is needed for the Twins to jump back into contention and fill the holes. Leave a comment on what you think about this, and don't be afraid to say if you think its garbage, just have some reasoning and I'll happily discuss. Thank you for reading.
     
  12. cjm0926

    A Possible Pitcher Trade Target: Zac Gallen

    By cjm0926,


    Trade Targets
    I was recently thinking about how everybody wants the Twins to trade with Miami for pitching, and rightfully so, but I tried to think outside the box and I came up with Zac Gallen as a possible trade target.

     
    Zac Gallen played his college ball at the University of North Carolina. He was then drafted in the 3rd Round of the 2016 Draft by the St. Louis Cardinals. Then, in late 2019, he was sent along with another possible Twins trade target, Sandy Alcantara, to Miami for Marcell Ozuna. About a year and a half later, Gallen made his Major League debut on June 20, 2019, for the Miami Marlins. A little more than a month later, he was shipped off to Arizona for Jazz Chisholm. He is currently 26 years old and will not turn 27 until August.
    Zac Gallen finds himself coming off a career worst year in his first full 162 game season. He pitched a solid chunk of the 2019 season, and as everyone knows, the 2020 season was only 60 games, so not a huge showing. In 2021, Gallen pitched to the tune of a 4.30 ERA with a 4.25 FIP. His ERA+ for the year was 99 (100 is league average) which places him as about a league average pitcher for that year. Before 2021, Gallen had never posted an ERA+ below 150, which is pretty insane, albeit only in 2 short years. He also had 3 stints on the 10 day IL in 2021, but before that I couldn't find any injury history, which is a very good thing. He still was able to pitch 121.1 innings in 2021. Also, Gallen posted a 2.3 WAR in 2021. Gallen had a very good K rate in 2021, 26.6% to be exact, which places him in the 70th percentile. But coming with that is a below average walk rate, which in 2021 was 9.4%, which is better than previous years but still not very good. That placed him in the 36th percentile. If you are one for advanced stats, I will post his 2020 and 2021 Baseball Savant profiles below.

    Obviously 2021 looks very bleak besides a few stats, but I think it was just a "down" year, which still made him at worst an MLB average starter. I think the 2020 stats are more of a true showing for Gallen.
    With Gallen you are getting a 5/6 pitch starter. Gallen's main pitch is his fastball, which makes sense, it averaged 93.4 MPH in 2021. His second pitch is his changeup, which he threw 16.7% of the time, and his third pitch is a curve, which he threw 12.5% of the time. His other pitches are a slider and cutter, which he threw 8.5% and 8.3% of the time. Baseball savant also says he has a sinker, but threw it 0.4% of the time in 2021, so it could have been a few game thing or just a misreading. Gallen is a fairly high strikeout pitcher, 25-30% throughout his career, but also walks his fair share, between 8-12% throughout his career, although it is trending downwards. Gallen had good success in his first 2 years, not having an ERA above 3 until this year. He also finished top 10 in NL Cy Young voting in 2020, at 9th place.
    Now onto Gallen's current situation. Gallen is currently pre-arbitration, so he will be making near the league minimum. He is under team control through 25, with arbitration from 2023-25. He will be very affordable to say the least. He is playing on a Diamondbacks team that is nowhere near contention, playing in the most stacked division in baseball, the NL West. The Dodgers aren't going anywhere soon, but the Padres underperformed in 2021, and the Giants could lose some key pieces in free agency, and the Rockies, well, they're the Rockies. So the Diamondbacks could be willing to trade Gallen for younger talent, likely a top prospect or two in the Twins system. Gallen's name was also brought up a little near last years trade deadline, although not to the Twins, making a trade slightly more plausible.
    I cannot think of a specific package the Twins could send over for Gallen. Baseball Trade Values ranks Gallen at a 47.7 value, being Arizona's most valuable trade chip. To put that into perspective, the Twins highest trade chip according to the website is Alex Kirilloff, at 33.6. The Diamondbacks don't have tons of gaping holes like you would expect a 52-110 team to have. Obviously they need pitching help, but It wouldn't make a lot of sense for the Twins to trade young pitching for more young pitchers. They do not need a catcher, which is a position we have a talent surplus at. The Diamondbacks have lots of passable veterans filling in at positions, like David Peralta, Josh Rojas and Cristian Walker. Their best position player without a doubt is Ketel Marte, patrolling centerfield. The Twins could possibly Trade Larnach to help with the D-Backs corner outfield situation. Larnach is a young, cheap outfielder with tons of potential. I am almost positive the Diamondbacks would want some pitching back in a deal, possibly requiring a young arm like Woods-Richardson, Canterino, or Balazovic to name a few. They could also go the route of trying to get a top prospect like what they traded for Gallen. Royce Lewis and Austin Martin fit that bill, especially if the Twins sign a shortstop for the long term in free agency. I have not called the Diamondbacks front office so there is no way I could know exactly what they want or even if they would still trade Gallen so these are all just guesses.
    Although it is very unlikely, I had fun doing research on a future star in Zac Gallen. I truly believe he could become an ace in the future, with the floor of a #3 starter. This offseason brings a bunch of questions for many teams, including the Twins, so obviously we all want to solve them. Would you guys rather jump into contention now at the cost of some very good prospects, or wait it out and have a few bad years and try and make a run with the incoming crop? Drop a comment and let me know, thank you for reading!
  13. cjm0926

    My 2022 Offseason Blueprint: sign Story, Stroman

    By cjm0926,


    Offseason Blueprint
    Like many others on Twins Daily, I will be describing an offseason I hope to see the Twins have. Who to sign, who to trade, and everything else I wish to see happen this offseason. I'd love to see comments about what you like/dislike and anything you might change.
    Below I have included my version on the payroll spreadsheet.

    First off, I sign Buxton to a 5 year, $75 million extension with the incentives wanted by Buxton's party. 
    I also make a few big splashes in free agency, signing Trevor Story to a 5 year, $100 million deal. It may not be very likely to sign him for that little, but if things play out the right way I could see it happening. Also, that means Story is the shortstop of the future, no need to worry about Lewis at SS long term and if he will take over and be the guy. He could be traded, or developed to play another position that doesn't have as much wear and tear on the body.
    Next I sign Stroman to a 3 Year, $70 Million deal. It seems unlikely he would come to Minnesota, but that is why I pay a little more than his expected value (expected around $20 Million) per year to get him to come to Minnesota. I also sign Corey Dickerson for 1 Year, $6 Million to play corner outfield. I also sign a few bullpen arms, them being Brad Hand (1 year, $2 Million), Ryan Tepera (1 Year, $5 Million), and Kendall Graveman (1 Year, $4 Million).
    I also make a few trades during the offseason, the first being Kepler to New York for Luis Severino. I don't know how likely this is, but Baseball Trade Values listed it as an overpay for Minnesota. Also with New York being interested in Kepler quite a bit around last year's deadline, I could see it happen. Severino is coming back from a few injuries and hasn't pitched a whole lot during the past 2 years, but I feel he could regain some of his fire he had before he got hurt and become an amazing #3 starter. If he doesn't have it, he could be gone after this season, or there is a $15 million option for 2023.
    I trade Ryan Jeffers, Matt Canterino, and Taylor Rogers to Arizona for Zac Gallen. I think this could be solid framework for this to happen, although it all depends on what Arizona wants, Arizona gets 2 good, young players with much potential, and one of the games best closers over the past couple years, Taylor Rogers. Arizona is not going anywhere anytime soon and with Gallen's name coming up in rumors during the season I could see him getting traded. I am a little nervous about Rogers coming off a finger injury and getting paid $7 million so that is why I trade him off while he still has solid value.
    Lastly I trade Donaldson for salary relief, which helps us sign some of the big free agents mentioned previously. Donaldson is definitely a good player, no doubt about it, I just don't see it helping a lot in the coming years for the team due to age and injury concerns. All I expect to get out of it is 1 or 2 "Slapdick" - Blake Snell, prospects. We will also eat $7 Million per year.
     
    For everyone else, I see Garver and Rortvedt splitting catching duties, with a current minor leaguer, maybe Tomas Telis or Roy Morales being a short term option incase of an injury. I see Kirilloff and Sano splitting time at 1B, Polanco being primary 2B, Arraez and Miranda splitting 3B and Utility duties, and Story being the shortstop of the future. In the outfield, I trust Larnach will get back on track, Buxton will Buxton, and Dickerson can fill in in RF or LF. I also have Celestino, Gordon, and could call up Rooker or Contreras if needed. Celestino will be 4th OF, and Gordon can be super utility, filling in at SS or CF if needed, as well as almost any other position.
    For the rotation I am going to roll with Stroman, Gallen, Severino, Ryan, Ober. The first 3 I explained above, and Ober and Ryan don't need much explanation. I could see us rolling with a 6 man rotation for a while to keep wear off young arms, but otherwise it is pretty self explanatory.
    In the pen I am returning Duffey, Alcala, Minaya, Moran, and Thielbar. I go out and sign Tepera, Graveman, and Hand as explained above. That gives me 3 lefties and 5 righties with Rogers gone. I think that pen would work out pretty well, and if someone isn't performing, there are young guys in Triple-A ready to show up.
    Went a few million over budget, but that should hopefully be fine. Lastly I am eating up a combined $11.25 Million between Maeda, Donaldson, and Colome buyout.Thank you for reading my first blog on Twins Daily, any feedback would be appreciated.
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