cmathewson

There is no way Delmon let 205 total bases happen in one season. He has generally been awful in his career. But he actually was not that bad that year. He was certainly better than Willingham last year, by my scouting eyes. Also, as Brock mentioned, it calculates Punto's WAR based on UZR, which, over 88 games, way overestimates the value of his defense on winning. To be more accurate, it should measure the number of outs recorded rather than the rate of outmaking.

Three years ago. My big thing is how it is a different stat depending on whether you subscribe to the FanGraphs or BBRef definitions. At least let's have a standardized way of calculating it. Beyond that, my sense is it is overly weighted towards defense. The definitive case of this, for me, is Nick Punto vs. Delmon Young 2010. Delmon (FG WAR 0f 1.6), 153 games, OPS+ of 124 and 281 TBs. Punto (FG WAR of 1.3), 88 games, OPS+ of 71 with 76 TBs.

This comes up every time the Twins draft a college player, with a few exceptions (e.g Levi Michael, Chuck Knoblauch). The Twins start college position players in the Appy League. They typically go from there to the MWL. If they dominate, the go to the FSL that year. Most don't go there until their third years. So they are old for every level they play in. Their projections should not be that greatly affected by their age/level pairings. Also, college ball is not uniform. If you play for Jacksonville College, you will not have played against top competition. If you play for Miami, you will have. I recall the knock on Danny Valencia was he followed the standard Twins progression, but he came from a major college. Walker played in a lesser conference.

Good points. Also, I was wrong about PNC park effects. It has a rating of -83, whereas Target has a rating of -92.

Some of that is park effect. The last time he was close to this on HRs, he pitched for San Diego. Last time I checked, home runs were not counted as a matter of luck. Pitching in Target Field should help him vs. PNC.

We could look at his peripherals relative to the last few years and see some things that represent deviations from his career averages. For example, walks. He'd currently walking 1.2 batters per nine innings. His career average is 3.2. He's currently surrendering 0.5 HR/9, while his career average is 1.1. And his current K rate is 3/9, while his career average is 5.9. Though that is a drop from his career average, his K/BB is at 3.0; his career average is 1.88. Those are the relevant fielding-independent stats, indicating that this good stretch is not just a matter of luck or better fielding behind him. He's also demonstrating better control than he has throughout his career. If that continues, he will certainly have a better year than he's had in a long while.

Gardy has a history of benching guys after one particularly bad defensive play. Hopefully he comes to his senses and plays him against Detroit. If this benching continues, I will be quite put out.

If you watch sports enough, and complement this with reading, you can get a pretty good education on sports injuries. How many people knew what a meniscus was before Mauer tore his in 04? How many people knew what a UCL was before Liriano tore his in 06? It's not rocket science. As a tech writer and tech journalist, I have written stuff that is far more complicated than orthopedics (super computing, robotic motion control, etc.). I am no expert at any of these things, but I can understand it well enough to write about it. The one thing that we can't do is look at an MRI or other diagnostic image and say anything helpful. That takes trained diagnosticians. And it is rocket surgery. As good as diagnostic imagery is today, the difference between a bone bruise and a stress reaction or hairline fracture is a matter of reading shadows. Get five diagnosticians in a room with the same film and the odds of consensus are low. What we can do without a degree in medicine is read reports about how a team is managing an injured player and compare it to what other teams do. In this case, the facts are clear. According to published reports, Mastroianni told Gardy he couldn't play for a full day at the start of the season. So Gardy played him as a pinch runner and late-inning injury replacement. Even in limited duty, he would be sore after a two-inning assignment. He also told him that the leg was not improving, several times. At that point, it was time to look for a plan B--someone who can play for a whole game if needed. The Twins didn't do that. They kept him on the roster and mostly unavailable for 17 days before making the decision. When Mastro tried to play a whole game, he aggravated the injury. Now he will be out for at least an additional month. Woulda coulda shoulda. But if they had done things the way most teams do (DL him and let him rest the injury for 15 days), he'd be in a rehab assignment by now, and available for duty by May 1. None of what I just wrote requires a degree in medicine. It just takes a brain and a computer. All of us are qualified to offer such opinions on this board, imho.

Gibson pitched the Wings to a 1-0 win today, with six-innigs of of two-hit ball against the best hitting teal in the IL. Gibson, Bigley lead Wings to 1-0 win | Rochester Red Wings News

I wouldn't read too much into four starts, two good, two so-so. I trust Terry Ryan's judgement when he says that he's close. And if he is on an innings limit, why waste them in AAA? My main thing is he needs to be ready to take the ball every fifth day next year. The best way for him to get ready for next year is to face major league hitters. As long as he won't get toasted when he's up here, I would prefer having him start over the more polished guys with little or no upside. All that said, there's plenty of opportunity up here to go around for Deduno and DeVries even with Gibson coming up to take the spot of Pelfrey or hernandez. Probably not both at the same time, though. We'll find out today how well Hernandez fares against one of the top line-ups in the league. Pelfrey has to pitch better to keep his spot.

After last night, I flipped my switch on Florimon. He wasn't charged with any errors, but I would have given him two. One for his dumb insistence on going to second with two outs when he had the sure out at first. The other on a ball hit right at him that got under his glove. Meanwhile, after pinch running for Rivera, Escobar made a play that I have not seen since Greg Gagne. On a hard-hit ball up the middle, he ranged behind the bag to snare it, wheeled and fired to get the fast runner at first. It was an awesome play. Count me among those who think he should be starting.

That's the real Trout timeline, which I could see Buxton matching: Half a year in CR, half a year in FM. Half a year in NB, half a year in the majors in 2014. That is still faster than Mauer. So it seems a bit aggressive. Certainly possible. Just not likely.

It depends on what the definition of the word "is" is.

Reading between the lines of the Mientievicz interview on 1500, he expects Sano and Rosario to be in New Britain by midyear. I think it's a stretch to expect Buxton to jump two levels. But I would be shocked if he's not promoted to Fort Myers for the second half of the year.

I agree with this. Plus, there's no where to go but up in the BA department. And that is going in the right direction. Also, two more years of team control, stronger arm, more power (when he starts making more contact), switch hitting. By the end of the year, everyone will be calling it an upgrade at the position. Add in Worley and May (who should be better than Worley as early as next year), and it's a win.

Actually, Mauer's thrown out most of the guys attempting to steal.

I don't think you get the humor in it. They're clearly messing with him, but they trust his judgement. Gardy listened enough to him to put Mauer in the 2 hole and Willingham in the 3 hole because they get on base. That's a significant change for him. The way I read it, they're using self-effacing humor to call out the fact that they're not tech savvy. It doesn't mean they can't learn from him, but he's the expert.

Again, being one of the last teams to adopt digital information and analysis does not mean they ignore information that might be helpful. I don't have a problem with saying they could or even should do more with digital information. I just think the meme paints them as completely ignoring it, which is a huge overstatement.

I don't see how those are related. And no, you don't have that correct. They are behind the times in a number of areas. Ryan, Gardy, Andy, the whole senior leadership still have a long learning curve. Being somewhat behind the times and not caring about stats are two different propositions. The posters were saying they didn't care about digital information. I thought that was a reach. I called them on it.

Let me get this straight. You won't be satisfied that the Twins like information until they install Pitch F/x machines in every minor league ballpark without the help of the other 29 MLB teams? I see.

And, after everything you've read in these two articles, you believe they've stuck their heads in the sand? If so, you are purposely ignoring what they say in order to form your own conclusions.

It varies a little by year, but conventional wisdom says if we wait until May 1, we get another year of control, not that the Twins really care about that. I think the bigger concern is whether he's ready or not. IMHO, he is close. Give Pelfrey at least one more start before you swap them out.

Then perhaps the meme is a myth, which the Twins are all too happy to perpetuate so that they can get get talent from teams more cheaply. No need to show your cards in this game.

I don't get the meme that the Twins would ignore information that can help them make better decisions. Scouting and stats are not mutually exclusive. Ryan even said (in so many words) that he uses stats to validate scouting all the time. He rarely starts with stats and sends scouts out to validate that. But who cares about the order the information is accessed? I'm reminded of the story in Moneyball where the stats guy recommended a pitcher affectionately known as the "creature"--a lefthander who threw like the dad in the VW commercial. He got results in some independent league because none of those hitters had ever seen the ball coming in from that angle. They signed him without asking any scouts about him. He got completely destroyed in real pro ball. He never would have been signed if they had sent a scout first.

Richardson has enough glove. Not sure Gardy will approve of either Thomas or Boggs in center for more than a game at a time.