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Otto von Ballpark

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  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Tyler Duffey was waived seven years to the day after his major league debut. His Twins career was bookended by losses to the Blue Jays.

    The 2015 Twins were surprise contenders, heading to Toronto in early August in possession of a wild-card spot. But the familiar refrain of "needs more pitching" was prevalent, especially as lefty starter Tommy Milone was placed on the disabled list.
    Most Twins fans expected the highly regarded José Berríos to get the call. After all, Berríos had been a first round draft pick, was a consensus top 50 prospect (and rising), and was now pitching effectively at the minors' top level. But the Twins surprised many observers when they selected the contract of fellow 2012 draftee and AAA starter Tyler Duffey instead.
    Duffey had been selected with less fanfare in the 5th round, as a college reliever. Converted to starting in professional baseball, he had steadily if unspectacularly moved up the minor league ladder himself, and was putting together his best pro season in 2015 when he got the call. With a devastating curveball, he was striking out 8 batters per 9 innings, back when that was still an impressive figure -- MLB average for starting pitchers was only 7.4 that year. Paired with only 1 home run allowed across 132 innings pitched, Duffey was an intriguing option for a major league start -- if he could get there. The Twins were heading to Toronto, and Duffey didn't have his passport with him in AAA Rochester. From the August 4, 2015 Star Tribune:
    The Twins were already fading, having dropped the first two games of the series. Duffey's debut on August 5th failed to reverse the trend: a pair of home runs by future Twin Josh Donaldson and José Bautista, more dingers than Duffey had allowed all season, led to 6 runs and a very early exit after just two innings, as the Twins lost again. From the next day's Star Tribune:
    Toronto would complete the four-game sweep the following day, Duffey was optioned back to AAA, and Twins fans resumed their Berríos watch.
    But ten days later, it was Duffey returning to the majors, not Berríos, and what a return it was -- from August 15 through the end of the 2015 season, Duffey made 9 starts, and the Twins won 8 of them to hang in the wild card race until the season's final week. With that curveball making Twins fans reminisce about Bert Blyleven, Duffey had a 2.25 ERA in that stretch, backed by an 8.4 K/9 and only 2 home runs allowed in 56 innings.

    Image courtesy of Tommy Gilligan, USA Today
    Alas, Blyleven rode his curveball for 22 seasons; Duffey lasted just one more as a starter. He earned a place in the 2016 opening day rotation, but the results didn't transfer with a 6.43 ERA and 25 home runs allowed in 133 innings. Berríos was even worse in 2016, so it appears the Twins made the right call in August 2015. A conversion to relief followed for Duffey, including outstanding seasons in 2019-2020, but that track record wasn't enough to save his job today.
    Last night, the same Blue Jays franchise ended Duffey's Twins career with another defeat, and another home run -- this time to Vlad Guerrero Jr., a fresh 16-year-old amateur signee when Duffey debuted back in 2015.
    What's next for Tyler Duffey? He will likely join another bullpen, maybe a contender's, and may even rediscover some magic. But Twins fans will always have the memories of his magic 2015 pennant race curveball.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    The Twins franchise has lost key games to many legends over time: Koufax, Yastrzemski, most of the 21st century Yankees, and... Eric Fox?

    That name may not be familiar, but if you followed the 1992 season with hopes of a repeat championship, Eric Fox played a large role in crushing those hopes.
    As they did in 1991, the 1992 Twins started slow in April, but warmed up in May and June, and finally took sole possession of first place after a marathon 15-inning win vs. Baltimore on Independence Day, July 4th. Entering a 3-game showdown with the second-place Oakland Athletics from July 27-29, the Twins held first place by 3 games, as well as the best record in MLB.
    The series should have favored the Twins: it was held in the Metrodome, packed with friendly fans off the excitement of 1991, and two of Oakland's stars, Rickey Henderson and Jose Canseco, were hobbled by injury. In their absence, the 28-year-old rookie non-prospect Fox was thrust into the A's outfield and leadoff spot, just 3 weeks after his major league debut. But Oakland won the first two games, prompting Twins GM Andy MacPhail to say "It looks like God wants a pennant race." Fox contributed 4 hits in 10 at-bats over those two games, which kept him in the leadoff spot for the third and final game of the series despite the returns of Canseco and Henderson.
    In that third game, 30 years ago today (July 29, 1992), Bill Krueger out-dueled Dave Stewart for 8 innings before Rick Aguilera came on in the 9th to protect both a 4-2 lead in the game and a 1-game lead in the division. Back-to-back singles brought up the potential go-ahead in Henderson, who would have been a logical hero, but baseball heroes aren't always logical: Henderson flew out for the first out of the inning. The next batter was Eric Fox.
    The switch-hitting Fox hit a 1-1 pitch off the facing of the Metrodome's upper deck in right field for a 3-run home run, giving the A's a 5-4 lead. After the game, Fox said, "Definitely the biggest hit in my life. Twenty-eight years worth. He came inside on me, and I just turned on it. The first thing I thought was that I might have turned on it too much. But I had that certain feeling."
    Dennis Eckersley, on his way to a Cy Young Award, retired the Twins in order in the bottom of the 9th to secure the victory, the sweep, and his 33rd save in as many chances that season.

    The 1992 Twins quickly faded into second place, as God's interest in a pennant race must have waned.
    But the hero Fox quickly faded too, finishing his major league career with a .198 batting average and 5 home runs in 290 plate appearances spread across four seasons. He'd show at least one more flair for the dramatic, though: on Opening Day in 1993, with Oakland clinging to a late 1-run lead against Detroit, Fox would hit a pinch-hit grand slam for insurance.
    Does God want a pennant race in 2022? The Twins' most recent games against Chicago and Cleveland might suggest that, and the Twins are scheduled to play them a combined 17 times over their final 33 games. If there is a 2022 version of Eric Fox, we can only hope God places him on the Twins this time.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Following the success of the recent 1991 Twins 30th Anniversary Celebration at Target Field, here's a preview of a future milestone, the 2021 Twins 30th Anniversary Celebration from the year 2051.   (EDITOR'S NOTE: As time travel can introduce many unintended consequences, especially for the gambling conglomerate which owns Twins Daily in 2051, we have attempted to remove any references to specific baseball events that haven't yet occurred.) Once again, Dick Bremer hosted the 2051 proceedings by himself, as none of his 156 different broadcast partners from the 2021 season were memorable enough to recall. What follows is a transcript of the event from Target Field, broadcast exclusively in 2051 within the Caesar's Palace Sports app (blackout restrictions still apply).

    [2051 DICK BREMER HOVERS AT A PODIUM OVER TARGET FIELD, AGELESS LIKE HIS NAMESAKE DICK CLARK]
    BREMER: Many call it the worst Twins season of all-time. Some consider it matched only by [YEAR OF FUTURE AWFUL TWINS SEASON REDACTED]. Blown saves; trade deadline sales; viruses in the clubhouse; no fans in the stands and few watching -- legally, anyway -- at home. Like a Bizarro Lake Wobegon, it was a team where all pitchers were somehow below average. Tonight we will relive that trauma from 30 years ago.
    We have many of the players from that roster here tonight, even [PRONOUNCES CAREFULLY] Tzu-Wei Lin, and a majority of the 57 different pitchers used by the Twins in that fateful 2021 season.   At first base, his strikeout rate was legendary in his time, even if it seems low now by 2051 standards; the "Boquetón" now retired to Boca Raton, Miguel Sanó.
      At second base, fans may "blank" on his brief time with the Twins, but he'll always be designated for assignment in our hearts: Travis Blankenhorn.
      At shortstop, the only thing hotter than Andrelton Simmons's glove was his Twitter takes. Simmons could not attend tonight, as he is accepting an honorary doctorate from YouTube University. So instead I present a [AIR QUOTES] "mystery" shortstop that all true Twins fans should recognize. [NOBODY RECOGNIZES THE PLAYER, WHO IS J.T. RIDDLE.]
      At third base, he is known as the "Bringer of Rain" for washing away all sticky stuff from major league baseball forevermore; still somehow the most expensive free agent in Twins history even after 30 more years of inflation, Commissioner Josh Donaldson.
      In the outfield, it's -- a bunch of infielders! [TZU-WEI LIN LEADS A SILENT PARADE OF PLAYERS ACROSS THE OUTFIELD; NICK GORDON, HOWEVER, REMAINS ON THE BENCH.]
      Designated hitter Nelson Cruz, appearing by Zoom hologram from Las Vegas where he is playing tonight for the A's.
      On the mound, the starting pitcher who in 2021 made the third of his improbable [REDACTED NUMBER] separate stints with the Twins, Andrew Albers. And in the bullpen, the person who traveled the least distance to be here, Caleb Thielbar.
      Finally, at every position, including catcher, pitcher, mascot, and head groundskeeper, La Tortuga himself, Willians Astudillo!   [SEVERAL MINUTES OF THUNDEROUS APPLAUSE AS ASTUDILLO DRIVES THE LATE T.C. BEAR'S FOUR-WHEELER TO EACH POSITION FOR A CURTAIN CALL, LOSING AND RETRIEVING HIS HELMET EACH TIME.]   Throwing out tonight's ceremonial first pitch is second generation Twins waiver claim Ralph Garza Jr. Jr. [NOT A TYPO]. And catching the first pitch, the lab-created genetic combination of the 2021 Twins front office, and current 2051 Twins intern, T.D. Falvine. [FAN-ACTIVATED ANGRY FACE EMOJIS SCROLL ACROSS THE FIELD AS THE FIRST PITCH IS THROWN.]   And now, please enjoy tonight's intra-continental game between your Minnesota Twins and their legendary opponent from the 1991 World Series, the recently renamed Hotlanta Braves. Our 2051 sponsor, Amazon Prime Time Travel, received a commission for any thoughts you had while reading this.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    36 years ago today, Twins fans had a frightening experience at the Metrodome. And Ron Davis hadn't even entered the game yet!
    It was a Saturday night in April 1986, and the stadium was unusually crowded with fans for that era, with an announced attendance of 31,996. I'd like to report that a mass of Twins faithful had shown up to support a young, exciting team building towards a World Series championship the following year, but Howard Sinker in the next morning's Star Tribune likened it to a timeshare presentation instead: 125 vacations were being awarded to fans that night.

    As the Twins built a 5-1 lead in front of that captive audience inside the Dome, a severe thunderstorm was happening outside. Roads were flooded and trees were downed in the metro area, but thanks to the Dome's roof, the Twins and Angels played on in comfort. That is, until Mickey Hatcher stood at the plate in the bottom of the 8th inning, when the roof began to undulate, heavy light banks to sway, and rainwater to pour on fans in several places. The next day's KARE 11 newscast likened it to "a scene from a horror movie."
    Caught in the turmoil were these two Chippendales dancers, apparently:

    Home plate umpire Ken Kaiser halted play and called the players off the field, while public address announcer Bob Casey told fans to remain calm and evacuate the upper deck. Despite the drama, fans were never in any danger, the Metrodome operations crew was quickly able to adjust the air pressure to stabilize the roof, and the game resumed after a 9 minute delay.
    How did it happen? Jay Weiner broke it down in the Monday April 28 Star Tribune:

    When play resumed, Hatcher scored Steve Lombardozzi with a sacrifice fly to extend the Twins lead to 6-1. Unfortunately, that is when the real disaster began. Frank Viola started the 9th inning by allowing a double and a home run to cut the lead to 6-3, and the Twins brought in the aforementioned Ron Davis to try for the save. Davis had begun the 1986 season with 5 scoreless appearances, but his previous outing was a five-run shellacking at the hands of this very Angels ballclub.
    As might be expected, Davis was greeted with a single and home run to further cut the Twins lead to 6-5, before finally recording the first out of the inning. A Reggie Jackson pinch-hit walk and another out followed, to bring the Twins within one out of victory. But eventual Rookie of the Year Wally Joyner clubbed a two-run homer to put the Angels on top 7-6, and the Twins went down in order in the bottom of the 9th to end the game. This game turned out to be the penultimate 9th inning save opportunity of Davis' career; remarkably, he was still able to be traded to the Cubs in August 1986 with a 9.08 ERA for the season.
    This game proved to be the final Twins weather delay at the Metrodome, according to Stew Thornley. Even after being wind-battered, the Dome further proved it was not broken by hosting the Twins and Angels again the following afternoon, although the final outcome wasn't much different: an 8-7 Angels victory, this time without the help of Ron Davis.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Joe Ryan just became the Twins' second rookie opening day starter, after Tom Hall in 1969. Who is Tom Hall, and how did he get that honor?
    After all, Tom Hall is hardly a household name among Twins fans, and that was a successful era for the franchise, behind a veteran starting staff. Patrick Reusse of the Star Tribune recently published a nice biographical sketch of Hall, but omitted key circumstances about his unusual 1969 assignment.
    Holdouts
    Before the advent of free agency and multi-year deals, players still negotiated contracts with their clubs every winter, and the players' only real leverage came from not reporting for work. In 1969, pitchers and catchers were due to report on February 21, but relatively few Twins were in Orlando on that date, instead waiting to satisfy their own contract demands and a wider dispute over player pensions. Among the holdouts were four veteran pitchers: Jim Kaat, Dean Chance, Dave Boswell, and Jim Perry.

    Minneapolis Tribune, February 22, 1969
    The Twins wouldn't see all four of those pitchers in camp until March 14, and they wouldn't all pitch in a spring game until March 21, just two and a half weeks before opening day on April 8. This is strikingly similar to the lockout-delayed 2022 Twins spring schedule, and also illustrates the climate from which free agency and future labor strife was born. 
    Expectations
    Today, a player reporting that late to camp would not be expected to pitch deep into games, but that was not the case in 1969. Rookie manager Billy Martin, who later gained a reputation for overworking his pitchers even by the standards of the time, expected his starting pitchers to go the distance, all nine innings, in a spring game before the season even started. None of the veteran hurlers met that expectation in 1969, both due to the tight timeline and due to injuries: groin issues for both Kaat and Chance, and a finger cut while cleaning fish for Boswell.

    Minneapolis Star, March 25, 1969
    Roles
    One veteran pitcher, Jim Perry, stayed healthy that spring, and could have been a candidate for opening day despite reporting late -- but he spent most of spring training and the early part of the season coming out of the bullpen. His Twins career of 6 seasons thus far had been spent as a "swingman", split almost equally between starting and relief. It wasn't until late May 1969 that Perry cemented his status as a full-time starter, finishing the year with 20 wins, starting game one of the 1969 playoffs, and following that with a Cy Young Award in 1970.
    Tom Hall would ultimately become a swingman for the Twins too, perhaps limited by another factor not present in the modern game: military service for active players. With the backdrop of the Vietnam War, Hall was in the Marine Reserve. This meant he had to spend two weeks every summer in training, plus various weekends, which certainly limited his availability for regular rotation duty early in his career.
    Still, Hall got the starting nod for opening day 1969, which like Joe Ryan's start in 2022, proved to be a 1-run Twins loss. The next day, Jim Kaat pitched 11 innings, so despite his late spring and injury, perhaps Kaat could have started opening day after all.
    Hall's 1969 Twins would go on to win 97 games and the first American League West division title, before getting swept out of the playoffs by Baltimore. Can Ryan's 2022 Twins match that, or do even better?

    Minneapolis Star, April 7, 1969
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    "The Twins have signed a free agent to a 3-year contract with two opt-outs."
    Sound familiar? It might.

    Image courtesy of the Star Tribune
    The seeds of today's Carlos Correa contract were planted on Feb. 5, 1991, with the Twins signing of Jack Morris. Technically the opt-outs were called "player options" at the time, but they were functionally the same: they empowered the player, alone, to turn a shorter-term contract into a longer-term one.
    According to a  2016 NY Daily News article, the Morris contract is considered the birth of the modern opt-out clause:
    Around the league, opt-outs have since become a staple of contracts, both short and long. But until now, those clauses had largely passed the Twins by, and top free agents had mostly eluded the Twins.
    Does the Correa contract signal a change? Is there a new willingness and ability of the Twins to utilize the opt-out? Or have the stars simply aligned for another once-in-a-generation event?
    Either way, it has Twins fans of March 2022 already dreaming of October 1991.

  7. Otto von Ballpark
    In the wake of Aaron Hicks being named the Twins starting centerfielder, many fans have expressed disappointment that the team did not send him to the minors to further delay his major league service time. As little as two weeks in the minors would have delayed his potential free agency a full year; roughly three months in the minors could have also delayed his arbitration eligibility an additional year too. But how important is that?
     
    The value of an extra year of team control, before free agency, is probably best supported by the case of JJ Hardy. When Hardy was struggling for the Brewers in 2009, the team sent him to the minors briefly, ostensibly to work things out, but more likely to delay his free agency from after 2010 until after 2011. This demotion came despite Hardy having already been a MLB all-star and multi-year starter. Had the Brewers retained the services of Hardy, the direct dollar value of that extra year of control would have been minimal: final-year arbitration players are generally paid very close to market value for that season. However, when they sought to trade him after the 2009 season, the additional year of team control certainly appealed to potential trade partners. The Brewers parlayed that into reasonable return from the Twins in Carlos Gomez. The extra value to be gained in trade was quite a short window, though; had the Brewers tried to trade him earlier in his career, his performance in the potential extra year would have been more difficult to predict and thus worth less. And trading him just one year later, the Twins certainly did not fare as well as the Brewers.
     
    The value of that extra year of control is also challenged by the career of the Twins' own Joe Mauer. In 2004, Mauer, like Hicks this year, skipped over AAA and opened the season with the Twins. Barring a demotion, this meant Mauer projected to be a free agent after the 2009 season; had the Twins given him two weeks at AAA, that free agency could have been delayed a full year, until after 2010. On first glance this seems to be a costly mistake by the Twins in the handling of a future $23 million per season player. But because Mauer proved to be a very good player early, the Twins agreed to a multi-year contract after his third season anyway, avoiding arbitration entirely and buying out his first free agency season of 2010 for a very reasonable amount. It's doubtful that two more weeks in the minors would have affected the terms of this contract. Had Mauer taken longer to establish himself in the majors, though, it could have given the Twins an extra year to decide whether to keep him long-term.
     
    And Mauer's example further highlights how Hardy's extra year of control came at some cost to the Brewers. Aside from obviously upsetting Hardy and likely ruining any chance of negotiating a good deal with him later, the Brewers went year-to-year on one-year arbitration contracts with Hardy. This means they likely paid Hardy closer to maximum value in those seasons, as compared to the Twins who probably got a slight discount over this method in their multi-year contract with Mauer. Going year-to-year also exposed them to the risk that Hardy would have a "breakout" or "career" year and get an inflated arbitration award above his "true talent" or "market value" salaries -- just imagine what the Twins would have had to pay in arbitration after a season like Mauer's 2009! (Probably something like... his current annual salary. Oh well!)
     
    So while two weeks in the minors for an extra year of control is of little cost to a team like the 2013 Twins, it seems to also provide relatively little and very speculative future benefit. But what about three months in the minors, to delay the player's arbitration eligibility? A Tampa Bay Rays blog recently discussed this very topic, in regards to Wil Myers:
     
    Wil Myers and Super Two - DRaysBay
     
    They concluded that delaying the service time of a projected 4 WAR player (like Myers) for 3 months would save the team $15 million over those 7 seasons of team control. Obviously, this number would be much lower for a player with a lower projected contribution (arguably Hicks), and also lower if a multi-year contract is sought to cover arbitration seasons, like Mauer. And it doesn't include the major league value the player could provide over those 3 months (admittedly not too significant to an unlikely contender like the Twins) as well as the potential player alienation factor and how that affects future contract negotiations. Even if Hicks turns out to be a good MLB player, the hard cost savings may be as little as a few million dollars over the course of his first 7 seasons, while also inviting the alienation and year-to-year arbitration salary spik risks as dicussed above.
     
    Finally, all of this is moot if the player does not develop into and remain a quality major league regular for seven seasons. Even recent Twins like Jason Bartlett, Lew Ford , and Juan Rincon, who all looked quite promising at the beginning of their respective careers, wound up providing little major league value beyond seasons four and five anyway. And Hicks has yet to establish himself in the majors (or above AA) at all.
     
    While his performance and development track are always worthy of debate, starting Hicks in the major leagues this season should be of little concern to Twins fans from a long-term financial perspective.
     
     
    * While researching this post, I compiled a list of "significant" (2+ WAR season), mostly "homegrown" Twins of the recent era (1998-present), and how the Twins approached their 6 years service time of team control. The list wasn't terribly useful for this post, but is presented below because, hey, I took the time to write it.
     
    Position players:

    Lawton - year to year, traded during year 5 (age 29)
    Koskie - signed through year 6 (age 31)
    Hunter - signed through year 8 (age 31)
    Guzman - team declined option on year 7 (age 27)
    Mientkiewicz - traded during year 5 (age 30)
    Jones - left after year 6 (age 30)
    Pierzynski - traded after year 3 (age 26)
    Ford - released after year 4 (age 30)
    Mauer - signed through year 7
    Morneau - signed through year 9
    Punto - signed through year 6 (age 30)
    Bartlett - traded after year 2 (age 27)
    Cuddyer - signed through year 8 (age 32)
    Kubel - signed through year 7 (age 29)
    Span - signed through year 7 (age 31), traded after year 4 (age 28)

    Pitchers:

    Radke - signed through year 10 (age 31) in middle of year 6 (age 27)
    Guardado - signed through year 9 (age 32)
    Hawkins - signed through year 7 (age 30)
    Milton - signed through year 7 (age 28), traded before that year
    Mays - team declined option for year 8 (age 30)
    Santana - signed through year 8 (age 29), traded before that year
    Lohse - year to year, traded during year 5 (age 27)
    Rincon - year to year, released during year 6 (age 29)
    Silva - signed through year 6 (age 28)
    Crain - signed through year 6 (age 28)
    Guerrier - signed through year 6 (age 31)
    Baker - team declined option for year 7 (age 30)
    Nathan - signed through year 7 (age 33)
    Liriano - year to year, traded during year 6 (age 28)
    Slowey - year to year, traded after year 4 (age 27)
    Blackburn - club option on anticipated year 7 (age 32)
    Perkins - club option on year 9 (age 33)

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