Parker Hageman

[ATTACH=CONFIG]2901[/ATTACH]The Minnesota Twins’ offseason has been interesting to say the least. With the team trading away not one but two of their major league ready center fielders, the writing on the wall at 1 Twins Way appears to read that the focus is on the future. Outwardly, the Twins are sending the message that they are doing what they can to build a competitive team in 2013 but also taking measures to fortify the club for the coming years. Behind closed doors however, the tone may be different as the reality is that the organization recognizes the window for success begins at least one year down the road. And this may be the reason why Justin Morneau could be traded yet this offseason. During the winter meetings, the Twins were reported to have been “gauging interest” from other teams on what they would give for Morneau. Obviously nothing materialized at the time and, furthermore, the Twins may have simply been testing the waters rather than outright shopping their first baseman. That said, as the team made abundantly clear after last season, no one is untradeable. The conditions were not favorable at the time of baseball’s annual agent orgy, at least not for the first base market. Had someone like the Orioles offered up a top flight arm, Morneau may already be eating Maryland crab cakes. Instead, teams were still addressing other needs. Targeting vital up-the-middle position players. Trying to land top-of-the-rotation arms. The game’s top free agents had yet to sign. The dominoes were still mostly intact. That changed yesterday when Angels signed outfielder Josh Hamilton out from under the Texas Rangers’ nose. Not only did the Rangers lose a talented player to their division rival, they also became fairly exposed from the left-side of the plate. Because of that, it may not be long before the Rangers call on Morneau and ask: “How much?” Aside from losing Hamilton’s production from the left side, they also have lost their designated hitter in Young. Potentially desperate to address those needs, Rangers’ GM Jon Daniels may be inquiring on Morneau soon. With the Angels launching themselves into the catbird seat of the AL West and the surprising and youthful Oakland A’s extremely competitive as well, Daniels will surely need to counteract what his rivals have done this winter. From the Rangers’ perspective, targeting Morneau makes plenty of sense. In spite of witnessing a decline in his home run totals in recent years, a new venue could help rejuvenate the Canadian slugger. The Ballpark at Arlington is one of the most favorable environments for left-handed hitters to play. According to StatCorner.com’s Park Factors, Texas’s stadium has a home run factor of 117 (anything over 100 favors hitters). By comparison, Target Field’s confines thwart that type of power production to the tune of 78. In theory, Morneau’s numbers would be enhanced significantly with the Rangers. Additionally, with one year left on his contract, it would be a relatively risk-free (minus the concussion, of course) deal for Texas. Under most circumstances, the idea of asking a team to absorb $14M for a 31-year-old with injury issues may be a tall task, however, Texas is one of a few teams who seem able to assume the risk. The Rangers, who have lost Hamilton’s previous contract ($15.25M), Mike Napoli’s ($9.4M) and a portion of Michael Young’s ($5.5M of his total $16M owed), have payroll space to add Morneau’s contract if they so choose. As it stands, they have roughly $50M committed to players (pre-arbitration contracts, of course) after reached $120M in 2012. After all, in addition to whatever revenue they generate for being one of the best attended teams in the American League (2 of 14), they also have approximately $80 million a year coming in from their TV deal with Fox Sports Southwest. On the other hand, by most measures, the Rangers are a smart team. Daniels has been one of the most impressive general managers in the game – building his organization from the ground up, emphasizing scouting, bringing in elite international talent and targeting quality free agents. After making several moves to acquire players like Cliff Lee and Ryan Dempster in recent years, he has also lost some notable prospect talent so it is hard to envision the Rangers sacrificing much in any deal. Likewise, the overall market for Morneau was lukewarm at best at the deadline last year. Even losing a star player to a division opponent may not be enough to inspire Daniels to surrender the young pitching the Twins are hoping for. Would Morneau make the Twins better in 2013? Yes. Would trading him upset the fan base? Of course. Is he untouchable? Obviously not. The Twins sent the message at the winter meeting that Morneau could be had for a price, not it appears that the Rangers maybe in a position where they might have to pay that.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]2866[/ATTACH]When the Minnesota Twins traded Ben Revere to the Phillies, they acquired one pitcher to help them in the present (Vance Worley) and one for the future (Trevor May). In Worley, the Twins landed a somewhat seasoned middle-of-the-rotation starter who has above-average movement. But Worley had recent elbow issues, necessitating the addition of the Phillies’ top prospect, May. May’s pedigree is strong. His velocity ranges up to 95 complimented with a decent curve and an improving changeup. Unlike the majority of his Minnesota pitching prospect counterparts, May has been able to get batters “out” by throwing three “strikes”. On his way to these “strike outs”, he has avoided bats but also the strike zone as well – an aspect of his game which may have soured the Phillies on his potential. Now in the Twins’ system, can they get the maximum return out of his abilities and turn him into a top of the rotation arm? Within the 2012 season, the 22-year-old May impressively led the Eastern League in strikeouts (151), exhibiting dominance at times over his elder competition in his first stint Double-A ball. However, he also topped the league in walks (78) and home runs allowed (22). Both are somewhat disconcerting figures coming from the Phillies’ minor league pitcher of the year in 2011. The home runs allowed spiked significantly from eight total the previous year – certainly a byproduct of leaving the pitcher-friendly Florida State League and facing tougher competition – but the walk rate also increased after showing signs of improvement in his command in 2011. The struggle with his control is nothing new to May. In his first three years of professional baseball, while compiling impressive strikeout numbers, the right-hander walked 13.7% of all batters faced. In efforts to correct this issue, the Phillies attempted to corral his mechanics and smooth them out. According to May after his 2011 season, in which he made inroads towards bettering his free pass rates, he told reporters that: Although he may have made some significant strides in the overall quality, there was a remaining kink in his delivery. From , one thing that jumps out about May’s mechanics is an unstable balance point which affects his ability to keep everything consistent and encourages rushing through his delivery. Here are some stills of May at his balance point and while beginning to drive forward. Notice how his back foot is coming unglued from the rubber: [ATTACH=CONFIG]2867[/ATTACH] [ATTACH=CONFIG]2868[/ATTACH] [ATTACH=CONFIG]2869[/ATTACH] While this is isolated to his wind-up and not a trait exhibited on each delivery, it was something that likely influenced his overall command. Compare the above images to one of the other recent prospect acquisition, Alex Meyer. Notice how Meyer’s back foot stays flush and allows his upper body to remain balanced at the peak of his delivery: [ATTACH=CONFIG]2870[/ATTACH] The Phillies coaching staff and instructors likely noticed this problem area and have tried to get him to adjust. In 2012, while in Double-A Reading, May closed his pre-delivery stance thereby reducing the additional foot movement and, hopefully, leading to a more stable balance point. [ATTACH=CONFIG]2871[/ATTACH] [ATTACH=CONFIG]2872[/ATTACH] So far, the change led to more walks (not to mention, home runs). Now, this could be a byproduct of adapting to a new delivery or it could be that the change never corrected his balance problem. At 23 in 2013, the Twins have the opportunity to continue to hone May’s mechanics in attempts to harness his above-average velocity and swing-and-miss secondary offerings. As the organization sets their sights to 2014 and beyond, May's progress - particularly in the walks department - will be closely monitored as they try to refine him into a frontline starter.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]2866[/ATTACH]When the Minnesota Twins traded Ben Revere to the Phillies, they acquired one pitcher to help them in the present (Vance Worley) and one for the future (Trevor May). In Worley, the Twins landed a somewhat seasoned middle-of-the-rotation starter who has above-average movement. But Worley had recent elbow issues, necessitating the addition of the Phillies’ top prospect, May. May’s pedigree is strong. His velocity ranges up to 95 complimented with a decent curve and an improving changeup. Unlike the majority of his Minnesota pitching prospect counterparts, May has been able to get batters “out” by throwing three “strikes”. On his way to these “strike outs”, he has avoided bats but also the strike zone as well – an aspect of his game which may have soured the Phillies on his potential. Now in the Twins’ system, can they get the maximum return out of his abilities and turn him into a top of the rotation arm? Within the 2012 season, the 22-year-old May impressively led the Eastern League in strikeouts (151), exhibiting dominance at times over his elder competition in his first stint Double-A ball. However, he also topped the league in walks (78) and home runs allowed (22). Both are somewhat disconcerting figures coming from the Phillies’ minor league pitcher of the year in 2011. The home runs allowed spiked significantly from eight total the previous year – certainly a byproduct of leaving the pitcher-friendly Florida State League and facing tougher competition – but the walk rate also increased after showing signs of improvement in his command in 2011. The struggle with his control is nothing new to May. In his first three years of professional baseball, while compiling impressive strikeout numbers, the right-hander walked 13.7% of all batters faced. In efforts to correct this issue, the Phillies attempted to corral his mechanics and smooth them out. According to May after his 2011 season, in which he made inroads towards bettering his free pass rates, he told reporters that: Although he may have made some significant strides in the overall quality, there was a remaining kink in his delivery. From , one thing that jumps out about May’s mechanics is an unstable balance point which affects his ability to keep everything consistent and encourages rushing through his delivery. Here are some stills of May at his balance point and while beginning to drive forward. Notice how his back foot is coming unglued from the rubber: [ATTACH=CONFIG]2867[/ATTACH] [ATTACH=CONFIG]2868[/ATTACH] [ATTACH=CONFIG]2869[/ATTACH] While this is isolated to his wind-up and not a trait exhibited on each delivery, it was something that likely influenced his overall command. Compare the above images to one of the other recent prospect acquisition, Alex Meyer. Notice how Meyer’s back foot stays flush and allows his upper body to remain balanced at the peak of his delivery: [ATTACH=CONFIG]2870[/ATTACH] The Phillies coaching staff and instructors likely noticed this problem area and have tried to get him to adjust. In 2012, while in Double-A Reading, May closed his pre-delivery stance thereby reducing the additional foot movement and, hopefully, leading to a more stable balance point. [ATTACH=CONFIG]2871[/ATTACH] [ATTACH=CONFIG]2872[/ATTACH] So far, the change led to more walks (not to mention, home runs). Now, this could be a byproduct of adapting to a new delivery or it could be that the change never corrected his balance problem. At 23 in 2013, the Twins have the opportunity to continue to hone May’s mechanics in attempts to harness his above-average velocity and swing-and-miss secondary offerings. As the organization sets their sights to 2014 and beyond, May's progress - particularly in the walks department - will be closely monitored as they try to refine him into a frontline starter.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]2866[/ATTACH]When the Minnesota Twins traded Ben Revere to the Phillies, they acquired one pitcher to help them in the present (Vance Worley) and one for the future (Trevor May). In Worley, the Twins landed a somewhat seasoned middle-of-the-rotation starter who has above-average movement. But Worley had recent elbow issues, necessitating the addition of the Phillies’ top prospect, May. May’s pedigree is strong. His velocity ranges up to 95 complimented with a decent curve and an improving changeup. Unlike the majority of his Minnesota pitching prospect counterparts, May has been able to get batters “out” by throwing three “strikes”. On his way to these “strike outs”, he has avoided bats but also the strike zone as well – an aspect of his game which may have soured the Phillies on his potential. Now in the Twins’ system, can they get the maximum return out of his abilities and turn him into a top of the rotation arm? Within the 2012 season, the 22-year-old May impressively led the Eastern League in strikeouts (151), exhibiting dominance at times over his elder competition in his first stint Double-A ball. However, he also topped the league in walks (78) and home runs allowed (22). Both are somewhat disconcerting figures coming from the Phillies’ minor league pitcher of the year in 2011. The home runs allowed spiked significantly from eight total the previous year – certainly a byproduct of leaving the pitcher-friendly Florida State League and facing tougher competition – but the walk rate also increased after showing signs of improvement in his command in 2011. The struggle with his control is nothing new to May. In his first three years of professional baseball, while compiling impressive strikeout numbers, the right-hander walked 13.7% of all batters faced. In efforts to correct this issue, the Phillies attempted to corral his mechanics and smooth them out. According to May after his 2011 season, in which he made inroads towards bettering his free pass rates, he told reporters that: Although he may have made some significant strides in the overall quality, there was a remaining kink in his delivery. From , one thing that jumps out about May’s mechanics is an unstable balance point which affects his ability to keep everything consistent and encourages rushing through his delivery. Here are some stills of May at his balance point and while beginning to drive forward. Notice how his back foot is coming unglued from the rubber: [ATTACH=CONFIG]2867[/ATTACH] [ATTACH=CONFIG]2868[/ATTACH] [ATTACH=CONFIG]2869[/ATTACH] While this is isolated to his wind-up and not a trait exhibited on each delivery, it was something that likely influenced his overall command. Compare the above images to one of the other recent prospect acquisition, Alex Meyer. Notice how Meyer’s back foot stays flush and allows his upper body to remain balanced at the peak of his delivery: [ATTACH=CONFIG]2870[/ATTACH] The Phillies coaching staff and instructors likely noticed this problem area and have tried to get him to adjust. In 2012, while in Double-A Reading, May closed his pre-delivery stance thereby reducing the additional foot movement and, hopefully, leading to a more stable balance point. [ATTACH=CONFIG]2871[/ATTACH] [ATTACH=CONFIG]2872[/ATTACH] So far, the change led to more walks (not to mention, home runs). Now, this could be a byproduct of adapting to a new delivery or it could be that the change never corrected his balance problem. At 23 in 2013, the Twins have the opportunity to continue to hone May’s mechanics in attempts to harness his above-average velocity and swing-and-miss secondary offerings. As the organization sets their sights to 2014 and beyond, May's progress - particularly in the walks department - will be closely monitored as they try to refine him into a frontline starter.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]2827[/ATTACH]When the Minnesota Twins traded Ben Revere to the Philadelphia Phillies, they acquired one pitcher who can help the team immediately, Vance Worley, and another who is expected to contribute in the future in Trevor May. Because Worley is the known commodity who will be a member the starting rotation right away, let’s focus on him first and breakdown May next week. Affectionately known as “Vanimal” to the Phillie fan base, the 25-year-old Worley wound up being the fifth starter on a team whose rotation featured a stable of prized horses including Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay. On an average team, he’s likely a three or four-type starting. In the depleted staff in Minnesota however, until some additional moves are made this offseason, he could very well could be the second-best starter on the team. On the surface, Worley is very much a pitcher who fits the Twins’ mold: He throws strikes, he works ahead in the count and he pitches to contact. In fact, his 5.5% swinging strike rate last year was the third-lowest rate among all starters with a minimum of 130 innings pitched. That total fits in well with the Nick Blackburns of the world. Of course, the biggest difference was that Worley was still able to strike people out even if he couldn’t get them to swing-and-miss. His 18% strikeout rate last year would have finished ahead of everyone in the Twins rotation save for Francisco Liriano. So, if he’s not getting hitters to miss, how did he accumulate so many strikeouts? Jedi mind trick? In 2012 Worley’s strikeouts were largely a product of hitters failing to pull the trigger. As mentioned before, his swinging strike rate was well-below the major league average therefore he relied on painting corners and hitting his location. This past year, according to Baseball-Reference.com 57% of Worley’s strikeouts were of the looking variety. That mark was the highest among all qualified pitchers and surpassed the baseball average of 24%. In fact, no other qualified pitcher had more than half of their strikeouts looking. Interestingly enough, a higher amount of his strikeouts came against opposite-handed hitters rather than same-sided ones. Over his career, in the exact same number of plate appearances against both sides (597), Worley out-whiffed lefties (134) over righties (103). These reverse splits are related to the fact that he has caught more hitters looking versus getting them to swing and miss. Worley’s main weapon of choice against lefties is his sinking two-seam fastball. When he finds himself in a two-strike count, he will dial up this pitch more often than any other (40% of the time with two-strikes). This downward and glove-side run of this pitch combined with his excellent placement has allowed him to aim it at the hitter’s belt and watch it fade back over the plate, like this: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/theeight_1354861486_Worley2.gif The location and movement of this sinking two-seamer freezes opponents in their tracks. According to his profile at BrooksBaseball.net, with two-strikes, Worley has gotten strike three looking on this pitch 20% of the time he throws it. Perhaps because of his tendency to ride a pitch on their hands or throw soft stuff away, left-handed hitters had a difficult time pulling Worley. Possibly due to necessity of avoiding Citizens Bank Park’s inviting right field stands, he was able to keep hitters from going that direction often -- instead redirecting them back up the middle or to the opposite field. Unfortunately, Worley’s ability to do the same against right-handed opponents was non-existent as he was decisively average in his directional splits. The idea that a pitcher can control where a hitter hits the ball is debatable however if he is able to repeat this skill, the ability to keep hitters to the big park of the field, specifically at Target Field, so be beneficial**. **Then again, the Twins just traded away two very solid defensive center fielders and could employ a “Balls-To-The-Walls” defensive alignment in the outfield. Another interesting component of his game is the way that he has kept the ball in the park despite pitching in a very hitter-friendly ballpark. In his short career, Worley has allowed just 0.75 home runs per nine innings while the rest of the league has been closer to 1.00 HR/9. What makes this feat even more impressive is that Philadelphia’s Citizens Bank Park, known for its home runs and quick-taze security guards, has been a home run haven. Left-handed hitters, in particularly, have thrived there. According to StatCorner.com, the CBP has a Home Run Park Factor of 126, well above the neutral of 100. For comparison, Target Field vastly decreases the amount of home runs by left-handed opponents, carrying a 76 Home Run Park Factor. In theory, the transition to the home run-suppressing Target Field should help keep his home run rate down while switching to a league with an added offensive player in the lineup. So all of this seems positive. Yes, there will be some statistical inflation when he switches from a league in which he gets to face a pitcher holding a rolled up newspaper every ninth man up but his methodology and new environment should be able adapt quickly. The concern, however, is the health of his elbow. This past August, Worley would be shut down due to “loose bodies” in his throwing elbow and have season-ending surgery. While these procedures are described lightly and often referred to as “clean up” by teams, they can be symptoms of more ominous issues inside the elbow. The aforementioned Blackburn, who once had similar movement on his sinker, required this procedure in order to clean out some “loose particles” in his elbow in October 2010. Since then, Blackburn has been on-and-off the DL, had more surgery and has pitched with almost zero effectiveness. Like Blackburn did, Worley relies on touch and finesse which is provided by a healthy elbow. Now, that is only a disclaimer. Focus more on the fact that Worley has strong ground ball skills, ability to get strikeouts without needing to getting hitters to miss and is still young enough to be a part of the rotation for several years. In all, I say Twins landed themselves a decent middle-of-the-rotation arm.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]2801[/ATTACH]After a session with the team’s brass, Twins manager Ron Gardenhire emerged from their war room (war not WAR) at the Nashville hotel and, following the trade of Denard Span, told the MLB Network that they were “trading my whole damn team.” While it could be just a tongue-in-cheek response from the manager who is known to add some snark, because of the team’s current status of a bottom-dwelling squad without a rotation, the sentiment should be true. The front office has been extremely vocal about not trading Josh Willingham unless they were blown away with an offer and there has not been much discussion about moving Justin Morneau this winter. There is one unlikely Twins player who may have value at the winter meetings who the front office could consider moving and that is Ben Revere. If Revere is able to be packaged in a deal that could fetch a decent rotation arm the Twins should consider taking it. Both the Tampa Bay Rays and the Atlanta Braves are in need of a starting center fielder and Revere’s youth and cost control may be appealing enough to pry one of their surplus arms. Revere, 24, will enter his third season at the major league level. Last year, the speedy outfielder developed into a high-average hitter with well above-average defensive chops when it came to covering ground and making acrobatic catches. Meanwhile, on the bases, Revere swiped 40 bases -- succeeding in his kleptomania 82% of the time -- and, by Fangraphs.com’s accounting system, was the seventh-highest valued base-runner in the game. Baseball-Reference.com’s warehouse said that his legs added five runs to the Twins’ ledger in 2012 (tied for fourth highest in MLB) which equates to roughly a half a win. Given that he’s just beginning to adapt to the world’s best competition, the expectation is that he will continue to improve. After all, with his speed, he’s guaranteed to accumulate hits like Flo Rida. However, there are several areas in which he has been deficient and that is his ability to compile walks and hit for power. In addition outstanding speed and bat control - which Revere has displayed - premium leadoff hitters are adept at increasing pitch counts and coaxing walks. While he produced terrific numbers through his minor league career, Revere’s walk rate was below 7%, relying on batted balls to find seams in the defense to buoy his on-base percentage. Similarly, Revere’s power drought has been one nearing historic proportions and given how he puts the ball in play (mostly grounders), the odds are strong that he usurps Greg Gross for most plate appearances without a home run. These are two aspects of his game which are unlikely to change. Sure, his high average, high range and high speed talents may help cover up those shortcomings sufficiently but there is also indications that he is not in the Twins’ plan beyond 2013. If the Twins trade Revere, the duty of center field would like fall to Aaron Hicks - a five-tool prospect who has yet to see time above Double-A. While a level jump without touching Triple-A is less than ideal, Revere made the leap from New Britain in September 2010 and worked his way into the Twins lineup without sampling much time in Rochester. Hicks, 23, was drafted one year after Revere and will have the same amount of development time as Revere when he was forced into semi-regular duty in 2011. Like Revere, Hicks has buckets of speed on the bases and in the field. Unlike Revere, Hicks has a howitzer for an arm. Last year, he recorded 10 outfield assists with New Britain. Revere had 18 throughout his entire six-year minor league experience. With the massive real estate in right-center field, the field staff knows they need someone with a legit arm. Hicks also possess other tools at the plate that makes him a superior leadoff choice than Revere. A switch-hitter, Hicks has monk-like patience at the plate, registering a walk in almost 15% of his plate appearances. What’s more is that he has the occasional pop, able to gain multiple bases on a single swing of the bat. From a development process perspective, allowing Hicks an additional year to hone his craft at Rochester while keeping his arbitration clock from starting would be the most desired scenario. By all accounts, Revere is a hard-worker with three strong skills. Still, the Twins need starting pitching beyond just this season and Hicks can certainly learn on the job. If trading Revere would bring back a cost-controlled starter, the organization needs to seriously consider pulling the trigger.

Yesterday, the Twins traded a known commodity in center fielder Denard Span for the potential of right-hander Alex Meyer, a 6-foot-9, hard-throwing and former first round pick with talents that have impressed prospect pundits. While the Nationals get immediately better, the Twins will have to wait to see if Meyer’s talent pans out. Here’s what we know about Meyer: He can throw in the upper 90s (ooh!) coupled with a devastating breaking pitch (ahh!) and is really super tall (whoa!). Do those three things make him destined for baseball immortality? Not necessarily, after all, two of those three things could have been said about former Twin Jim Hoey. So what makes Meyer so promising to the Twins? Off the bat, well, he misses bats - something that has been sorely lacking among the system’s talent. In first professional season, Meyer struck out 26.6% of all batters faced. Comparatively, the starter to throw over 100 innings with the closest strikeout rate within the Twins organization was Liam Hendriks with a 19.9% strikeout rate. When opponents do make contact, they have mainly put the ball in play on the ground. With a ground ball rate over 50% split between two levels, Meyer has proven that his pitches are difficult to square up. Although grounder rates typically decline some as a pitcher advances up the ladder, Meyer’s current rate is impressive and a good starting point. Because of his Futures Game outing, albeit a brief, six-pitch endeavor, we have a glance at what sort of action he has on his pitches thanks to the magic of pitch f/x cameras. The first thing that sticks out is his release point. Naturally, with a big frame at 6-foot-9, you would expect that he would have an equally impressive release point. Unlike fellow vertically imposing hurlers like Jon Rauch (6-foot-11), Meyer does not have a release point that extends above his height limit. Rauch’s fastball release point has averaged 7.1 feet above the ground (remember, pitch f/x captures the “release point” a foot and change after a pitcher lets go of the ball). By comparison, the pitch f/x camera’s that night in Kauffman Stadium said that Meyer’s fastball was being released at 6.6 feet on average - slightly below his overall height. This means Meyer is coming from a three-quarter slot rather than over-the-top arm action. In this screen grab captures from Mike Newman’s scouting video, you can see where Meyer’s release point is: During his Futures Game outing, BrooksBaseball.net says that Meyer’s no-seam fastball, a pitch he threw four of the six times, averaged 99 miles an hour with glove-side run. Obviously when you are throwing cheddar at 95+ as a starter, the movement is not exactly the focal point that the hitter is grumbling about as he walks back to the dugout. Still, it is noteworthy that Meyer has some very good run on his fastball nonetheless. If you don’t have movement, you end up like Jim Hoey’s fastball which major league opponents can catch up to, In describing this no-seam pitch, Meyer told MiLB.com’s Andrew Pentis that in college he had thrown a straight four-seam fastball but discovered that he actually threw his “no-seam” fastball -- a two-seam grip in which he positions his fingers closer together off of the seams -- harder than his four-seamer with the added bonus of movement. Combined with his three-quarters release point, this pitch will demonstrate plenty of run. So, if a hitter actually is able to catch up to this 99er, it is also running either into (if right-handed) or away from (if left-handed) and making it that much more difficult to square up. This is part of the reason why he has been able to generate ground balls in over 50% of balls put into play. This particular clip of his fastball, captured during a bullpen session while in the South Atlantic League by the aforementioned Newman, shows how his fastball runs down and into right-handers: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/theeight_1354284175_Meyer2.gif What you also see is his ability to dial it up to another level: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Meyer.gif Meyer’s fastball does not end up at the catcher’s target (down in the zone) but rather finishes up in the zone. To me, this is reminiscent of some of Justin Verlander’s fastballs. Watching Verlander the years, you see his catcher call for something lower and then have the right-hander simply overpower you with a high fastball. What makes him more than just a one-trick pony is his devastating knuckle curve he mixes in. While some outlets will frequently refer to this pitch as a “slider” - mostly because it is thrown with a hard velocity and has a sharp, downward break - Meyer actually grips this pitch with a fingernail dug into the horseshoe-shaped part of the ball. As he describes to Pentis: Here is Meyer’s knuckle curve grip during the Futures Game. Note the positioning of his index finger: This downward action created by the grip has caused plenty of swing-and-misses and was rated by Baseball America as the best slider in the Nationals’ organization. While it is absolute filth at times, some of his unstable mechanics, an issue with taller pitchers, caused some problems this pitch. During his outing this summer, Newman noted that: In addition to his knuckle curve, Meyer is developing a change-up which he admits does not have the overall feel for but is working hard on perfecting that pitch. At the very least, the change in velocity -- from the upper 90s to the upper 80s -- gives the opponents something to think about. However, if Meyer is going to progress to the point of being a front-of-the-rotation starter, he will need to have that all-important third pitch. Otherwise his two-pitch fastball-knuckle curve combination has reliever written all over it. It’s long been said that there is no such thing as a pitching prospect. Some flame out, some get hurt and some never adapt. In Meyer’s case, injury is not out of the question, but his skill set is very strong. The Twins organization’s coaches and instructors -- likely those in New Britain -- will be tasked with refining his mechanics and instilling some consistency in them as well as finalizing his change-up in order to maximize his potential as a starter.

Yesterday, the Twins traded a known commodity in center fielder Denard Span for the potential of right-hander Alex Meyer, a 6-foot-9, hard-throwing and former first round pick with talents that have impressed prospect pundits. While the Nationals get immediately better, the Twins will have to wait to see if Meyer’s talent pans out. Here’s what we know about Meyer: He can throw in the upper 90s (ooh!) coupled with a devastating breaking pitch (ahh!) and is really super tall (whoa!). Do those three things make him destined for baseball immortality? Not necessarily, after all, two of those three things could have been said about former Twin Jim Hoey. So what makes Meyer so promising to the Twins? Off the bat, well, he misses bats - something that has been sorely lacking among the system’s talent. In first professional season, Meyer struck out 26.6% of all batters faced. Comparatively, the starter to throw over 100 innings with the closest strikeout rate within the Twins organization was Liam Hendriks with a 19.9% strikeout rate. When opponents do make contact, they have mainly put the ball in play on the ground. With a ground ball rate over 50% split between two levels, Meyer has proven that his pitches are difficult to square up. Although grounder rates typically decline some as a pitcher advances up the ladder, Meyer’s current rate is impressive and a good starting point. Because of his Futures Game outing, albeit a brief, six-pitch endeavor, we have a glance at what sort of action he has on his pitches thanks to the magic of pitch f/x cameras. The first thing that sticks out is his release point. Naturally, with a big frame at 6-foot-9, you would expect that he would have an equally impressive release point. Unlike fellow vertically imposing hurlers like Jon Rauch (6-foot-11), Meyer does not have a release point that extends above his height limit. Rauch’s fastball release point has averaged 7.1 feet above the ground (remember, pitch f/x captures the “release point” a foot and change after a pitcher lets go of the ball). By comparison, the pitch f/x camera’s that night in Kauffman Stadium said that Meyer’s fastball was being released at 6.6 feet on average - slightly below his overall height. This means Meyer is coming from a three-quarter slot rather than over-the-top arm action. In this screen grab captures from Mike Newman’s scouting video, you can see where Meyer’s release point is: During his Futures Game outing, BrooksBaseball.net says that Meyer’s no-seam fastball, a pitch he threw four of the six times, averaged 99 miles an hour with glove-side run. Obviously when you are throwing cheddar at 95+ as a starter, the movement is not exactly the focal point that the hitter is grumbling about as he walks back to the dugout. Still, it is noteworthy that Meyer has some very good run on his fastball nonetheless. If you don’t have movement, you end up like Jim Hoey’s fastball which major league opponents can catch up to, In describing this no-seam pitch, Meyer told MiLB.com’s Andrew Pentis that in college he had thrown a straight four-seam fastball but discovered that he actually threw his “no-seam” fastball -- a two-seam grip in which he positions his fingers closer together off of the seams -- harder than his four-seamer with the added bonus of movement. Combined with his three-quarters release point, this pitch will demonstrate plenty of run. So, if a hitter actually is able to catch up to this 99er, it is also running either into (if right-handed) or away from (if left-handed) and making it that much more difficult to square up. This is part of the reason why he has been able to generate ground balls in over 50% of balls put into play. This particular clip of his fastball, captured during a bullpen session while in the South Atlantic League by the aforementioned Newman, shows how his fastball runs down and into right-handers: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/theeight_1354284175_Meyer2.gif What you also see is his ability to dial it up to another level: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Meyer.gif Meyer’s fastball does not end up at the catcher’s target (down in the zone) but rather finishes up in the zone. To me, this is reminiscent of some of Justin Verlander’s fastballs. Watching Verlander the years, you see his catcher call for something lower and then have the right-hander simply overpower you with a high fastball. What makes him more than just a one-trick pony is his devastating knuckle curve he mixes in. While some outlets will frequently refer to this pitch as a “slider” - mostly because it is thrown with a hard velocity and has a sharp, downward break - Meyer actually grips this pitch with a fingernail dug into the horseshoe-shaped part of the ball. As he describes to Pentis: Here is Meyer’s knuckle curve grip during the Futures Game. Note the positioning of his index finger: This downward action created by the grip has caused plenty of swing-and-misses and was rated by Baseball America as the best slider in the Nationals’ organization. While it is absolute filth at times, some of his unstable mechanics, an issue with taller pitchers, caused some problems this pitch. During his outing this summer, Newman noted that: In addition to his knuckle curve, Meyer is developing a change-up which he admits does not have the overall feel for but is working hard on perfecting that pitch. At the very least, the change in velocity -- from the upper 90s to the upper 80s -- gives the opponents something to think about. However, if Meyer is going to progress to the point of being a front-of-the-rotation starter, he will need to have that all-important third pitch. Otherwise his two-pitch fastball-knuckle curve combination has reliever written all over it. It’s long been said that there is no such thing as a pitching prospect. Some flame out, some get hurt and some never adapt. In Meyer’s case, injury is not out of the question, but his skill set is very strong. The Twins organization’s coaches and instructors -- likely those in New Britain -- will be tasked with refining his mechanics and instilling some consistency in them as well as finalizing his change-up in order to maximize his potential as a starter.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]2750[/ATTACH]The Star Tribune’s LaVelle Neal reported yesterday that the Twins officials have been in contact with Francisco Liriano’s representatives and will meet next week in Nashville during the winter meetings. To many Twins fans, the news probably inspired a palm to the face followed by a head to the desk. After all, Liriano has been as bad of a starter in the past two seasons not named Nick Blackburn -- another reason to repeat the face-palm and head-desk combination. Since his mini-rebound in 2010, Liriano has turned in a bloated 5.23 ERA (sixth highest in that time) and has walked 12.6% of batters faced (second most in MLB). His inability to control the strike zone has resulted in the overabundance of baserunners and subsequent runs scored (hence the ERA and walk rate). Pitchers need to work ahead and throw a high percentage of strikes in order to maintain success at the major league level. High walk rates mean quick-rising pitch counts and early showers which means more strain on the bullpen and stress on the manager’s heart. Liriano, however, has been baseball’s biggest culprit of digging himself into a hole the past two years. According to Fangraphs.com’s pitch data, his 51.7% first-pitch strike rate is the lowest in baseball. It should be elementary but this was a very significant factor for Liriano has when he fell behind, opponents were able to reach base in a myriad of ways, in almost 50% of those instances (.498 on-base percentage when batters ahead versus .467 MLB-average). In comparison, when he was able to get ahead of opponents, he was able to retire them at a rate higher than the baseball norm (.186 on-base percentage versus .211 MLB-average). In terms of raw stuff, Liriano has been one of the best in the game. His slider has been able to make the smartest of hitters look completely stupid once it begins to descend the other direction. Thanks to good velocity and tilt, he is able to achieve plenty of swing-and-misses (23% in 2012) on the slider but it is a pitch best used when he is ahead in the count. Falling behind more frequently in 2012 translated into more two-seam fastballs (titled “Sinker” in this chart) says BrooksBaseball.net: [ATTACH=CONFIG]2749[/ATTACH] Liriano’s two-seam was one of the reasons he was his own worst enemy the past two years. In 2010, Liriano, not showing exemplary command of the pitch, managed to throw it in the zone over 52% of the time. The past two years, that rate has dropped to below 50% -- 46% in 2012 -- meaning that every other fastball was not in the strike zone. Hitters may be fooled by sharp breaking pitches darting out of the zone but a fastball isn’t going to get them to bite as regularly. As such, after a season of recognizing this tendency to miss the zone, hitters kept the bat on their shoulders more frequently (36% swing rate in ‘12 versus 44% in ‘10) and strayed after fewer out of zone fastballs (20% in ‘12 versus 25% in ‘10). The end result was a grand total of 52 walks on the pitch in 2012 compared to just 27 in 2010. A reunion with former pitching coach, Bobby Cuellar, who was recently promoted to bullpen coach by the Twins, may be the right combination to get Liriano’s game back on track. After all, it was Cuellar who had worked with Liriano on refining his mechanics which allowed him to throw more strikes -- currently his most notable flaw. Of course, a pessimist would argue that Cuellar has not exactly pumped out any other pitchers like Liriano or Johan Santana since his return to the organization since 2007. This past year, Nick Blackburn was sent to Rochester and Cuellar was instructed to fix whatever was wrong. After several successful outings in AAA, Blackburn was recalled and proceeded to crank out a turd of start after another over his final 12 starts. Whatever knowledge was bestowed upon Liriano and Santana did not sink in with Blackburn. What’s more is that Liriano was already suppose to be fix by White Sox pitching guru Don Cooper, who the careers of Gavin Floyd, Jose Contreras, Bobby Jenks and Matt Thornton have been improved because of his instructions. While it was just two months of mentorship, Cooper, who said that he knew what was wrong with the lefty, did little to set Liriano straight (he actually fell behind in the count more while in Chicago). In fact, when he started to careen off kilter, Cooper told reporters that it was more mental than physical, something the Twins had been saying all along: If the legendary Cooper cannot fix what ails Liriano, how is Cuellar going to resuscitate his career? Video does show that Liriano has some changes to his delivery from the 2010 season and a big part of that is keeping it consistent. In 2011, he was not extending the same as he did in 2010 which changed his release point. Early on in 2012, it was falling away to the third base side with every pitch and causing some arm slot issues. Can Cuellar perform the same magic as he did almost a decade ago in New Britain? Ultimately, if the Twins believe working with Cuellar can positively influence Liriano, somehow coaxing the 2010 success out of him, then a one-year gamble with the expectation that he is a back-of-the-rotation arm would be as good of a move as signing potential injury risks of the likes of Brandon McCarthy, Scott Baker or Scott Feldman.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]2690[/ATTACH]This is back-of-the-napkin type math based on a lot of assumption so please, do not attempt to cite the concluded numbers as final. They are, in essence, an educated guess that is founded from bits and pieces of available public information. But let’s use it to attempt to figure out why the Tigers are able to make it rain on the free agent market while the Twins are left counting pennies. The Tigers recently signed Torii Hunter to a two-year, $26 million deal. With that addition, Detroit now has five players under contract for 2013 who are scheduled to make $10 million or more for a grand total of $81 million. Plus, they have not completely ruled out extending pitcher Anibal Sanchez, who is seeking roughly $15 million per year. How is it that the Tigers are spending small principalities worth of money while the Twins stand idly by and target the one or two-year bargains? Detroit made approximately $93.93M at the gate last year (based on attendance multiplied by the $31 ticket price average sold). The Twins, on the other hand, made $91.74M (averaging $33 per ticket sold). That’s without taking into consideration advertising the stadium, suites, luxury boxes, concessions (which can range from $3.4 million to $20 million depending on the attendance and offerings). Assuming the Tigers were one of the teams to make the higher end of that based on their competitiveness and relatively new stadium, with a payroll of $133 million in 2012, they likely came in $10 million short. Comparatively, the Twins who also likely made the higher end of the stadium-generated revenue from suites and concessions, could have potentially made $10 million in profits (without taking in to consideration the operating costs, farm system expenses, etc, etc). Then there is the benefits of being a playoff team. According to research done by BizofBaseball.com’s Maury Brown, teams can stand to make an average of $1 to $2 million per game in the playoffs. If we split the difference, the Tigers could have made approximately $19.5 million for the 13 games played in October. In addition to that, Brown notes, the real windfall is the revenue generated for the following year as the club receives additional season ticket requests, sponsorships and are able to leverage that if local TV/radio contracts are up in the air. With the Twins not making it into even playoff contention for the second straight season, undoubtedly season ticket sales and sponsorship requests are down. The Tigers can plan for additional revenues whereas the Twins will likely brace for some fallout. The biggest difference maker between the two markets is the size of the TV contracts: The Tigers get an estimated $50M per season from their Fox Sports affiliate while the Twins are getting $29M per season. So, rather than having an operating loss as described above, the Tigers have somewhere closer to a $60 million profit thanks to the playoffs and broadcast rights. The Twins, meanwhile, could have somewhere in the ballpark of $39 million – a difference of $21 million in favor of the Tigers. What’s more, both teams, starting in 2014, will receive $50 million from the MLB central fund because of the new television contracts with ESPN and TBS. This added bonus certainly is taken into consideration when teams and agents are projecting long-term contracts. In the end, the Tigers could be poised to spend roughly $110 million (with some operating expenses removed) in 2014 while the Twins will be trying to compete with $89 million (with operating costs and what is certain to be a decline in ticket/stadium-based revenue). While it is not at the level as Detroit, the Twins still have plenty of money to spend for 2013 (particularly when you consider how much they have dropped off their payroll from the 2012 season) so they should not be crying poor. Sure, the ownership may be pocketing this additional funds – and that’s their prerogative – but, based on my outsider calculations, there appears to be plenty of revenue to add a few of the game’s top free agents…if they wanted to.