Seth Stohs

Obviously any prospect ranking is going to be an individual thing, so I encourage people to do their Top 30s as well. I like Ortiz. I think he can hit well. I think he gets lost behind some of the bigger prospects, but I think he is quite talented. How he fits into the future of the Twins doesn't affect my ranking. He's behind quite a few other OF prospects, so who knwos what will happen. Let's see how Duffey and Baxendale do when they make the move to the starter role in 2013. Hopefully they're terrific. Achter had a tremendous season as a 24 year old in Beloit and Ft. Myers, and we'll see how he does as he moves forward. Corey Williams has good stuff, but if performance is what you look at, he didn't exactly have a strong year in Beloit.

Regarding Polanco, and well, every prospect, it is just my opinion. ET stats are always interesting. He could move up a lot on this list if he hits in the Midwest League. Regarding Jones, I really like him. I think that if he gains some control, he could move up. I have always admitted that I tend to rank relievers lower than starters. Reasoning? Because a #3 or #4 starter is going to potentially work 170-200 innings. A top 7th inning reliever is going to pitch 65-70 innings a year. Also, why would I rank Jones ahead of Chargois? If the Twins drafted Chargois in the 2nd round and Jones in the 4th round, do we have enough information yet to put Jones ahead? I really, really like Jones and his 100 mph fastball, but let's see how he does in 2013.

Sounds like a pretty good scenario to me... With any prospect list or minor league system, some of the prospects make it, many don't . Having more good prospects increases the likelihood that more make it.

First of all, thank you for the kind words and the support. It is appreciated. Second, it is a ton of work, but I love this stuff. I love talking about the prospects, they deserve recognition. I love the minor league process. I fully appreciate how good a player has to be to make it to A ball, much less AA, AAA or even just to get a cup of coffee in the big leagues. So, please, feel free to ask any questions you like.

I don't know how much of a 'sleeper' Burris is. People around here talk about him a lot, and if I did the list out to 40, he would likely be in that 31-40 range, if only because of his curveball. Still not sure what his role will be, starting or relieving, and there are control issues, but like his ability to get strikeouts. I'm comfortable with where I have him, and if he continues to strikeout that many and becomes a starter, he'll move up quickly. I really like Tomshaw. I have a ton of respect for guys that have to 'pitch' and yet succeed. He tops out at about 86 mph on the right day, but he has great character and toughness and six decent pitches. He's definitely the kind of guy you want to root for!

I won't disagree with you too much, but at some point, we do have to credit Hermsen for pitching very, very well. The strikeouts are low, but he is young for the level and put up great numbers. Will he be a Brandon Webb-like success in the big leagues. Who knows? I mean, he's only ranked in the mid-teens, so that doesn't shout out top of the rotation, but there are guys who are solid back of the rotation guys for several years and make a lot of money. I don't know that many work as hard as Hermsen does, and his control and changes of speed and movement are, if nothing else, intriguing. I see Herrmann as taking over that 3rd catcher job mid-season. He can play many positions. He may not hit for very high average, but he does put together quality at bats, takes some walks and hits some doubles. Again, in the late teens, the upside for someone in AA or higher is role player. As for Hernandez, I hear that a lot, but again, he's a lefty who hits 91, mixes speed and has multiple pitches there's some value there, be it spot starter or bullpen specialist down the road. He's so young.

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=1324-Seth-s-2013-Top-30-Twins-Prospects

The Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook has now been available for a little over a week in both paperback and e-book forms. One of my favorite parts of the book is the History of my Top 30 Twins Prospects lists. Near the back of the book, I posted my Top 30 Twins Prospects for 2013, and I also post the Top 30s going back to 2007. It’s fun to look back and see some player’s names from the past. It’s fun to see some of them being successful in the big leagues, and it’s even fun seeing names of players that I (and likely many others) may have been completely wrong about. Back in October, I posted a preliminary Top 50 prospect list on this site. It was purposely done before a lot of research on the Twins minor leagues had started. It created great discussion in the comments, but it is also interesting to see if, after reading a ton about all 150 or so Twins minor leaguers, the rankings change much. In some cases, they did change. The Twins also added a couple of top prospects. Below you will see my final 2013 Minnesota Twins Top 30 Prospects. In the book, it’s just a list. After each, I’ll be added a couple of sentences about the player, kind of stream of conscious-form. Obviously, in the book, there is much more about all 30 players, and over 120 more player prospects. So again, if you’re interested in the e-book, the paperback or any of the previous Prospect Handbooks, feel free to do so. [ATTACH=CONFIG]3106[/ATTACH] SethSpeaks.net 2013 Minnesota Twins Top 30 Prospects Rank – Name – Pos – 2012 Levels 1 – Miguel Sano – 3B – Beloit Snappers Everyone knows Sano. He’s one of the Top 10-20 prospects in baseball due to his power potential. Can he play 3B long-term? I think so. He hit 28 homers and drove in 100 runs last year in Beloit while hitting just .258 and striking out a ton. He’ll have to make some adjustments before he becomes a Sure-Thing, but he has the world of potential! 2 – Byron Buxton – OF – GCL Twins, Elizabethton Twins Speaking of amazing potential, Buxton fits into the upper echelon. The #2 overall pick in last year’s draft had all of the tools. He is incredibly fast, plays great defense, has a rocket for an arm, and should hit for power. He had a successful debut in 2012 and it will be interesting to see if he begins the 2013 season in Cedar Rapids or at Extended Spring Training. 3 – Oswaldo Arcia – OF – Ft. Myers Miracle, New Britain Rock Cats Flat-out impressive hitter. He has very good power, uses the whole field and just always finds a way to put the barrel of the bat on the ball. In New Britain, he showed he can hit for average, walk enough, and come up big in big situations. Twins minor league hitter of the year in 2012, he could go back to New Britain for a short time or begin the season in Rochester. 4 – Alex Meyer – RHP – Hagerstown Suns, Potomac Nationals Meyer came to the Twins in the Denard Span trade. The 2011 first-round pick out of Kentucky has a ton of potential on the mound. Anyone who throws 99 mph, has a semblance of control, and has the potential for four plus pitches should probably be higher than #4 on the list. He has Ace potential, now we’ll see in 2013 if he can get there. 5 – Aaron Hicks – OF – New Britain Rock Cats The funny thing is that a year ago, Hicks was coming off of a frustrating season in Ft. Myers. I ranked him #4. In 2012, he moved up to New Britain and put together a very impressive line in which filled up all of the offensive categories. He had double figures in doubles, triples and home runs and stole 32 bases. He also has great range, and has a very strong arm in the outfield. He has a chance to be the Twins starting centerfielder in 2013. 6 – Kyle Gibson – RHP – Ft. Myers Miracle, Rochester Red Wings Like Hicks (and Arcia), Gibson should debut with the Twins sometime early in 2013. The right-hander’s rehab from Tommy John surgery in September of 2011 went as planned. He pitched fairly well, especially early, in the Arizona Fall League. He’s got a great mix of pitches including a fastball that occasionally touches 95. He should be a very solid starting pitcher in the near future. 7 – Eddie Rosario – OF/2B – Beloit Snappers Rosario has a terrific bat. He is also a very good centerfielder, but due to the Twins glut of outfielders in the farm system, Rosario has been moved to second base where he has shown glimpses of having a future there. Can he stay at 2B? That shall be determined. He will be playing for Puerto Rico in the WBC and is starting to become a household name in his country. 8 – Jose (JO) Berrios – RHP – GCL Twins, Elizabethton Twins Another member of the Puerto Rico WBC roster, Berrios is very young having just been drafted by the Twins in the supplemental round of the Twins 2012 draft. He is a very advanced pitcher for his age and seems to be more likely to get to the big leagues than most players his age. Hopefully he can remain healthy. 9 – Trevor May – RHP – Reading Phillies May came to the Twins with Vance Worley from the Phillies in the Ben Revere deal. A year ago, May was the top prospect in the Phillies organization. Walked too many at AA in 2012, but he throws hard and if he can harness the control, he could be a solid member of the rotation. 10 – Max Kepler – OF – Elizabethton Twins Kepler was signed the same year as Jorge Polanco and Miguel Sano, and in 2012 he took a big step forward in his second season in the Appalachian League. He showed his power potential. He takes walks. He is a good outfielder. 2013 will be interesting as he moves into a full-season league. 11 – Joe Benson – OF – Rochester Red Wings, New Britain Rock Cats Benson was as big of a prospect one year ago as Aaron Hicks is today. Unfortunately, he struggled early and was hurt most of the year. When it comes to tools and talent, Benson has as much upside as anyone on this list not named Buxton or Sano. The mullet is gone. The knee is nearly back to 100% He should be given a legitimate shot at the starting centerfield gig. 12 – Kennys Vargas – 1B – Beloit Snappers When it comes to raw power, Vargas has as much as anyone in the organization, including Miguel Sano. He returned a year ago after serving an extended 50 game suspension and showed his power right away in Beloit. He’s not swift. He’s not great at 1B. He struggles with a good fastball, but I just can’t get past that power potential. 13 – Danny Santana – SS – Ft. Myers Miracle I’ve always been pretty high on Santana. I love his speed, both on the base paths and with his range at shortstop. He has a strong arm. He was the leadoff hitter for the Miracle this past year despite rarely seeing a pitch that he didn’t want to swing at. He posted an OBP over .300, primarily due to his average. He’s not big, but he’s fast and shows good extra base power. He was added to the 40 man roster following the season. 14 – Travis Harrison – 3B – Elizabethton Twins Harrison debuted in 2012 with the E-Twins. He hit .300 although he didn’t show much power. His defense was rather rough at third base. He is a solid all-around hitter and the power should develop. He likely won’t stay at third base, so his bat is what will carry him. 15 – Alex Wimmers – RHP – New Britain Rock Cats Wimmers was considered by many to be one of the most ready pitchers drafted in 2010. 2011 was a mess, and he lost his 2012 season because of elbow problems that resulted in Tommy John surgery. But, if he’s healthy, he can still show why he was a 1st round pick. Good fastball, good changeup. Plenty of pitches. Hopefully his rehab can go as smoothly as Kyle Gibson’s did. Biggest picture, don’t completely forget about Wimmers yet! 16 – Adam Walker – OF – Elizabethton Twins OK, Walker has some incredible power potential too. The key for the 2012 draft pick will be whether he is able to make more contact. If he can, he’ll move up quickly. If not, frankly, he will struggle. 17 – Chris Herrmann – C – New Britain Rock Cats, Minnesota Twins When the 2012 season ended, Herrmann went home to prepare for the Arizona Fall League. A couple of weeks later, the Twins had a need at catcher and Herrmann was called up. He didn’t hit, but he did show his patience. He also impressed behind the plate and in left field. That is the role (similar to Ryan Doumit, but without the bat) he should be playing for the Twins for years to come. 18 – BJ Hermsen – RHP – Ft. Myers Miracle, New Britain Rock Cats Yup, I get that he doesn’t throw real hard and many think it won’t transfer as he moves up. The Twins Pitcher of the Year knows how to pitch. He has a variety of fastballs that he throws at various speeds and with various movements. He lives on perfect control and being able to keep the ball in the park. 19 – Jorge Polanco – 2B – Elizabethton Twins Polanco was signed for his glove at shortstop, but he has gradually been playing more at second base. He actually hit quite well in the Appy League in 2012I don’t expect that to continue, but Polanco should advance to the Midwest League in 2013. 20 – Luke Bard – RHP – GCL Twins, Elizabethton Twins Bard pitched mostly out of the bullpen in college, but he has the pitches and the makeup to be a starter, where the Twins 2012 first-round pick feels he would be more valuable. 21 – Adrian Salcedo – RHP – Ft. Myers Miracle Salcedo was a Top 10 prospect a year ago, but 2012 was a lost year for him. He fought elbow and shoulder injuries and was rehabbed throughout the season. Hopefully he will be successful in his recovery and return to his prospect status quickly. When healthy, he is a starter who can sit in the mid-90s. He also has three pitches. 22 – Mason Melotakis – LHP – Elizabethton Twins, Beloit Snappers The hard-throwing Twins 2nd round pick in 2012 did a nice job for the E-Twins and Snappers bullpens. However, there is a good chance that he will get an opportunity to start. If he can be successful, his value skyrockets. 23 – Nate Roberts – OF – Beloit Snappers Led the Arizona Fall League in Batting Average, OBP and SLG% this past fall. He is the perfect leadoff hitter who understands his job is the get on base as often as possible. 24 – Michael Tonkin – RHP – Beloit Snappers, Ft. Myers Miracle Tonkin went back to Beloit to start the 2012 season and was tremendous out of the bullpen. He throws his heavy fastball in the mid-to-upper 90s with a devastating slide. He struckout almost 13 batters per nine innings and was added to the 40 man roster. 25 – Pedro Hernandez – LHP – Rochester Red Wings He’s considered by most fans to be just another guy from the Francisco Liriano trade. He’s a lefty with multiple pitches who, at age 23, already made a start in the big leagues. His 2013 ended with injury, but he could be a decent back of the rotation starter in the future. 26 – Daniel Ortiz – OF – Beloit Snappers, Ft. Myers Miracle Ortiz had another solid season in 2012 between Beloit and Ft. Myers. The diminutive outfielder has a very nice swing and solid all-around skills, but he is often forgotten among all of the other Twins outfield prospects. 27 – Niko Goodrum – SS – Elizabethton Twins Goodrum repeated at Elizabethton in 2012 and his batting average dropped but his Isolated Discipline and power increased. He should get to the Midwest League in 2013. 28 – Matt Summers – RHP – Beloit Snappers, Ft. Myers Miracle A hard-throwing right-hander, Summer pitched well early in Beloit, but he did struggle in Ft. Myers. He has three solid pitches and his strikeout numbers should increase going forward. 29 – Hudson Boyd – RHP – Elizabethton Twins Boyd made his professional debut with the E-Twins in 2012. His ERA was solid, although he did give up a lot of unearned runs. He has a fastball in the mid-90s, but he didn’t get many strikeouts during the season. 30 – Levi Michael – 2B/SS – Ft. Myers Miracle I wasn’t real high on Michael when the Twins made him their top pick in 2011 from North Carolina. He went to Ft. Myers and really struggled with the Miracle. He played a season at third base, a season at shortstop and a season at second base in college. He played more second base with the Miracle. Offensively, he wasn’t particular good. So there you have it. My official 2013 Twins Prospect Ranking. Feel free to leave comments and ask questions in the Forum.

I agree with this... 2014 a lot of the guys start showing up and take some lumps. Improvement in 2015 (And a few more show up and take lumps) and maybe compete into Julyish... then compete for division title in 2016 as a few guys are reaching arbitration and others now have some experiences under their belt and they get to the point where 1-2 rookies come up and fit in, rather than have huge expectations. I'm good with that...

No one knows, but it's not ridiculous to think that it could IF he is able to strikeout less. If he puts the ball in play 35 more times (110 Ks), he could get 8-12 more hits, which would push him up from .260 to .280. I don't think anyone thinks he'll hit .330 like Cabrera or Mauer, but .280-290 is possible with more contact.

I'm good with the list. His list is exactly the same as mine with the exception that I have Rosario 7th and Berrios 8th, and he has them the other way. I have Meyer ahead of Hicks too. I think this looks like a good list.

Great stuff!!! Thanks for sharing. I've gone there the last 5-6 years and enjoy it every time!! I like hanging out by the minor league section. See you there! Hopefully you can come over to Huberts afterward on Saturday!

To be fair, the Twins do not always follow the wisdom of keeping players down for an extra month or two. Joe Mauer was up right away in 2004 right away. Last year, Parmelee and Hendriks both made the opening day roster. So, although I think sending Hicks/Gibson down for a month would be the smart thing to do, I don't think that is what the Twins will do if they go out and win a job in spring training (which of course is crazy because spring training stats mean so little).

Couldn't have put it better myself. I don't care about the 4th year of arbitration, but the Twins (and all teams do it wisely) should absolutely care about getting another season rather than an extra couple of weeks. Joe A. Preusser: Well put. Anything can happen in a two week or a one month sample.

Like I said, I wasn't questioning the results, just what it means. Yes, the Rays have some good ones there, no question. Price was also the #1 overall pick. And, I know your three points, but your blog was on the pitchers in the organization at the time. Picking out two orgs that we know are good is one thing. Going through 30 organizations might tell us something else. I don't pretend to know and couldn't even guess and certain am not going to do that work. And Gibson was 2009. Wimmers and Darnell were 2010. If Meyer (2011) becomes a star, will you credit the Twins or give credit to the Nationals?

I'm not questioning the blog, I would also just be curious what "normal" is. You've have to look at all of the organizations. If you have 1 player from the DSL team each year that eventually gets to the big leagues, that's great. It would also take more than four years from there. If you have 1-2 GCL guys that get to the big leagues, that's pretty good. Things haven't been great, but I don't think this would be unusual. The list of 11 shows one player who has already been arbitration-eligible (Duensing) and two others that have over 2 years of big league service time (Swarzak/Burnett) and guys like Robertson and Slama who have pitched in the big leagues. Hermsen was added to the 40 man roster on schedule. Again, I agree that the Twins haven't developed much pitching, but I just don't know what 11 players means. I think it would be normal for a great majority of those 97 players that you include would not make it, especially if you're including the DSL and GCL and ET. Why isn't Hendriks on this list? He was around. Are others missing? Gibson and Darnell

For Walker, it will be (primarily) all about the strikeouts. If he can make contact, he can hit for a ton of power and move quickly. If not, he'll struggle and won't get past AA.

mapquest tells me that I am just 650 miles north of Cedar Rapids. You know I'll be making at least one long-weekend trip! Looking forward to it. Will definitely miss the people in Beloit, but looking forward to meeting the good people in Cedar Rapids!

According to Rhett Bollinger, the Twins and Brian Duensing have agreed to a one year, $1.3 million contract to avoid arbitration. He is the last arbitration guy for the Twins, so again, no arbitration cases. My opinion is that the Twins got a very good deal on this one.

I don't believe it means 1-2 wins. I definitely understand the value of framing as a person who has caught before. I'm not even saying it's wrong, but I don't buy that is factors into games won and lost unless the ump is terrible. But to be honest, I still struggle with trusting most defensive metrics.

"But the Twins know that Hermann is good enough to be a second catcher, maybe even a starting catcher on some teams. He's more valuable to teams that don't have a Mauer and a Doumit in front of him for playing time." Based on? He had a good year at AA last year. I'm a big Herrmann fan, but I see no harm in him getting a couple of months in AAA. I am wondering what teams he would be starting for... and also, if you believe he is that good, why would you want him to come up to play one in four games?

If he had to come up, I think Herrmann would be alright. He's not young, but he has enough talent that you don't want him sitting 5 days a week either. It also doesn't hurt to get him 200 plate appearances in Rochester, see where he's at and make a decision on Butera/Herrmann in June/July. There are plenty of reasons to like Butera, defensive prowess probably being the biggest one. If Herrmann is ready during the season, it's not like it will hurt the Twins to eat a couple-hundred thousand dollars. It's hardly over league minimum.

I think that we have to stop looking at him as the #3 catcher. He is the backup catcher on most days. It allows Gardy to keep Mauer and Doumit in the lineup most days. He was up last year for all but about a month, and he only had about 120 plate appearances. $700,000 is closer to the league-minimum of $480,000 than it is the $1 million. I like looking at pop time. I think framing pitches is important. I don't think it leads to wins, at least not many. I think controlling the run game is important. He's got a strong arm. I think that, for the role he was used in in 2012, he's worth that amount. I also think that Chris Herrmann will be more ready later in the year. He'll be able to play a bit more as he can catch, but he can also play the outfield well, and he played in the infield in college. He can provide more versatility while not matching Butera's defense.