Seth Stohs

Each month here at Twins Daily, we will be posting choices for Twins minor league relief pitcher, starting pitcher and hitter of the month. First, I want to share with you some of the top relief pitchers in the Twins minor league system in the month of April. I'll follow up over the next 24 hours with the starting pitcher and hitter of the month. However, let's start with the Top 6 Relief Pitchers in April: Number 6 – Ft. Myers – Ricky Bowen - 8 G, 1.96 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 18.1 IP, 18 H, 2 BB, 17 K, .269 BAA The Twins signed the veteran Bowen last May and he pitched in several roles. Those close to the Miracle say that his stuff profiles well to the bullpen as he has two very good pitches, including a sharp slider which is his strikeout pitch. He’s off to a great start in April. Number 5 - Beloit – Michael Tonkin - 8 G, 0.64 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 14.0 IP, 11 H, 3 BB, 14 K, .216 BAA In 2010, due to injury, Tonkin was pushed up to Beloit where he made several starts before going back down to Elizabethton. Last year, he pitched in the Snappers bullpen, and he’s back there again. If his April numbers were the lone indicator, he shouldn’t remain in the Midwest League much longer. Number 4 - Rochester – Anthony Slama - 8 G, 0.79 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 11.2 IP, 6 H, 8 BB, 18 K, .158 BAA Slama is healthy again after an injury-plagued 2011 season. He is back to pitching like he always has. He walks a few too many, but unlike most of the hard-throwers the Twins have signed in recent years, he has the ability to get a lot of strikeouts. Unlike most pitchers in the organization, Slama actually has the ability to miss bats. Number 3 – Beloit – AJ Achter - 7 G, 0.56 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 16.0 IP, 8 H, 5 BB, 19 K Achter was the Twins 49th round pick in 2009 out of Michigan State. Instead of signing right away, he went to the Cape Cod League, improved his status and signed late. He was brought up to Beloit last year and made 19 starts for the Snappers. He was sent back to Wisconsin to start this season and moved to the bullpen. So far, so good. He has a three-pitch mix and could potentially make starts later in the season. Number 2 – Ft. Myers/New Britain – Caleb Thielbar - 8 G, 0.00 ERA, 0.55 WHIP, 12.2 IP, 4 H, 3 BB, 16 K, .098 BAA Thielbar has yet to allow a run, and he has already been promoted to New Britain (where he came in and got the final out of a 1-0, 12 inning win on Monday night), so how is he not #1 on this list? Well, the Twins have had quite a few strong bullpen performances this first month and the lefty is no different. The former St. Paul Saint has definitely made himself into a prospect to watch. And the Twins Minor League Relief Pitcher of the Month is: New Britain/Rochester – Deolis Guerra - 8 G, 0.57 ERA, 0.57 WHIP, 15.2 IP, 7 H, 2 BB, 17 K Ever since being moved to the bullpen halfway through last season, Guerra has been a different pitcher, a great pitcher. Although he doesn’t throw hard, his changeup is the best in the organization. One phrase that annoys me more than most is that Guerra is “the last player remaining from the Johan Santana trade.” That isn’t his fault and yet too many fans seem to hold it almost against him. Guerra impressed the Twins coaches in spring training. He was great in seven games with AA New Britain before being promoted to Rochester where he pitched three shutout innings over the weekend. [ATTACH=CONFIG]821[/ATTACH] So what do you think? I’ve listed six players here and there are a few bullpen guys in the Twins farm system that could (should?) be recognized for their great start to their 2012 season. Who would your choice be? How would you rank these guys (and feel free to include others)? Be sure to check back later for the April Starting Pitcher and Hitter of April.

Jeremy, I really enjoy this stuff! Thanks for sharing. People look at Sano's numbers and think he needs to be promoted. It's good to read what you said. Two years ago, I went there and watched Hicks. Many were saying he should have been promoted, and from what I saw, he was where he needs to be. This is just great stuff... Look forward to your Corey Williams interview. Be sure to link here, if you can. Interesting guy, very smart. Very talented. When I head to Beloit, I hope you'll be able to make it down too. And Chrissy is awesome, but incredibly busy. She knows she's very welcome to do anything she likes here at Twins Daily!!

Good article... I agree with what you've got here.

The Twins lost yet again in a back-and-forth battle against the Royals. The Twins had plenty of runners on base again but didn’t get enough to score. There was the occasional good pitch, good (or umpire-assisted) defensive plays and some bad luck. Carl Pavano just didn’t have it, and the defense was also unable to hold a lead. The Twins have now lost six in a row. The Royals have won 3-0. Here is a look at the Twins minor league scores and highlights from Friday: ROCHESTER 3, BUFFALO 7 This game quickly became a bullpen game. Sam Deduno started and walked the first batter he faced. He threw another pitch but then had to leave the game with a trainer. It will be interesting to find out what happened and what it means. Brendan Wise came in and worked the next three innings. He gave up six runs on six hits and a walk while striking out three. Tyler Robertson struck out three in two scoreless innings despite giving up two hits and walking two. Anthony Slama struck out five in two scoreless innings. Casey Fien gave up a solo home run in the final inning. Darin Mastroianni continues to hit well. He was 3-4 in this game with a walk. Aaron Bates was 2-4 with a walk. Joe Benson hit his second double. Those were the only six hits for the Red Wings. NEW BRITAIN 4, RICHMOND 5 (13 Innings) This was a game with many twists and turns despite the fact that it was a 2-0 game through eight innings. The Rock Cats came to bat in the ninth behind. Aaron Hicks singled in a run, and then he scored on a Deibinson Romero double to tie the game and send it to extra innings. In the 13th, Aaron Hicks came up with a runner on and blasted his fourth home run of the year to give the Rock Cats a 4-2 lead. Unfortunately, the Rock Cats bullpen gave up three runs in the bottom of the 13th, winning on a walk-off. Andrew Albers started and gave up just two runs on eight hits in six innings. He walked one and struck out six. David Bromberg pitched a perfect seventh inning. Luis Perdomo threw two scoreless innings. Lester Oliveros then worked three scoreless innings. Blake Martin came in for the Rock Cats and gave up a hit and a walk and only got one out. Bobby Lanigan came in, still holding a one run lead, but he gave up a two-run walk off home run. Deibinson Romero went 3-6 with his seventh double. Aaron Hicks was 2-6 with his fourth homer and three RBI. Chris Herrmann was 2-6 with his eighth double. Evan Bigley was also 2-6. James Beresford was 2-4 with a walk. FT. MYERS MIRACLE 2, PALM BEACH 3 There wasn’t much offense in this game, but it turned into a good one. Down 3-0 heading in to the 9th inning, Danny Santana came up with two on and knocked both in with his second triple of the year. It cut the lead to 3-2, but that was as close as it would get. Josmil Pinto added his sixth double earlier in the game. Pat Dean got the start for the Miracle. The lefty went six innings and gave up three runs on seven hits. He walked four and struck out just one. Miguel Munoz had a very impressive outing in his second appearance of the year. He gave up no runs on two hits in three scoreless innings. He walked none and struck out one. BELOIT 6, BOWLING GREEN 3 The bats remain on fire for the Snappers. Wang-Wei Lin was 3-4 with a walk. JD Williams was 3-4 with his second and third doubles, his first triple, two RBI and his fifth stolen base. Eddie Rosario was 1-2 with two walks and his seventh steal. Miguel Sano hit his fifth double. Madison Boer went the first six innings. He gave up two runs on six hits. He walked three and struck out two. Bart Carter struck out three in two perfect innings. Clint Dempster gave up one run on two hits in his inning. JD Williams was often overlooked last season in Elizabethton by the Rosario/Sano combination. He got off to a slow start with the Snappers. A week ago, he was hitting .107. However, following tonight’s performance, he has a six game hitting streak during which time he is 10-25 (.400) and has raised his average to .241. --- Players of the Day for Friday, April 27, 2012 Hitter of the Day – JD Williams [ATTACH=CONFIG]799[/ATTACH] Pitcher of the Day – Miguel Munoz [ATTACH=CONFIG]798[/ATTACH] --- A Look Ahead – Saturday, April 28, 2012 Schedule Rochester @ Buffalo – LHP Scott Diamond New Britain @ Richmond – RHP Steve Hirschfeld Ft. Myers vs Palm Beach – RHP Jhon Garcia Beloit vs Bowling Green – LHP Steven Gruver --- If you have any questions or comments on the Twins minor league system, players, teams, etc., leave them in the Comments and I’ll try to answer them!

You are walking down the street on this Friday afternoon when you bump into something. You look down and notice that you just kicked a lamp of some sorts. You reach down and notice that it's quite dirty, so you start to rub it and notice that it is quite shiny. Suddenly, smoke starts coming out of the lamps opening and POOF! A magic genie is kind of floating in front of you. At least you hope it is a magic genie because otherwise the guy standing in front of you is a little scary. But anyway, it is a magic genie and he says to you, "Your wish is my command. I can give you three wishes." Because you are such a big Twins fan, your first wish is to become the GM AND Manager of the Minnesota Twins for one day. Voila! Suddenly, you're sitting in the GMs office at Target Field, wearing your Twins uniform with a lineup card in front of you and a cell phone, ready to make transaction. Wow!! This is really happening (for this blog's purpose only. Again, we reiterate that TwinsCentric and Twins Daily are in no way associated with the Twins and can not actually give you that kind of power). Suddenly the genie is back in front of you and says, "Congratulations! You have two more wishes." Real quickly, you make your two additional wishes. There is suddenly world peace and your bank accounts each have ten figure balances. All is right in the world, yet, you still are the Twins GM and Manager for the next 23-and-a-half hours. You have just a couple of rules. 1.) You can't fire the current Twins GM or the current Twins manager. It was agreed that they would return to their individual posts at the end of the 24 hour period. 2.) You can only make three transactions. (Granted, one transaction can be "option Players, X, Y and Z, and recall Players A, B and C.) 3.) The genie is no longer helping you out, so if you were to make trades, they have to be realistic. In other words, you can't trade Jeff Gray and Matt Maloney to the Tigers for Miguel Cabrera and Justin Verlander. What do you do? What would I do? Decision #1 - Option Chris Parmelee to Rochester, Promote Drew Butera. I'm sure I'll take heat for this one, but I really believe that Parmelee needs to play most every day. Although he's keeping his head above water in the big leagues, I believe he needs at least a couple more months. Sending down Parmelee would create a situation in which Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau and Ryan Doumit would be able to play most every day. Morneau would need to play some 1B and DH. Doumit and Mauer would catch, play 1B and DH. Butera would allow Gardy to feel comfortable with those three players playing every day. Butera should get no more than about 2 plate appearances a week. Decision #2 - Keep Francisco Liriano in the rotation, Option Liam Hendriks, Add Anthony Slama to the 40 man roster and promote him, and put Anthony Swarzak in the rotation. As you can see, since I am believing that this is a rebuilding year, I want the young players to get time in Rochester to work on a few more final things. I would have all of them (Hendriks, Parmelee, Revere, Benson, Tosoni, Diamond, Guerra, Dozier, up by July). This transaction gives Liriano his last attempts as a starter. It allows us to see if Swarzak can be a starting pitcher. It gets Anthony Slama back on the roster (hey, if his lone problem has been throwing strikes, he is no worse than Jeff Gray and Slama actually gets strikeouts). Decision #3 - Do NOT sign Brandon Inge. Enough said? Now it's your turn. What would you do? [ATTACH=CONFIG]796[/ATTACH]

The Twins had a much-needed day off on Thursday. Players were able to stay at home (or in their hotel room, or wherever they’re staying), and get some things done… hopefully that included getting some rest. The team will start a series against the Royals at home on Friday night. Hopefully the Twins bats can tee off against lefty Everett Teaford! Here is a look at the Twins minor league scores and highlights from Thursday: GAME 1 - ROCHESTER 4, SYRACUSE 5 (8 innings) The Red Wings spent a full afternoon playing ball on Wednesday to make up for their rainout on Monday. In the first game, Cole DeVries was on the mound and he was very good. The righty went six innings and gave up two runs on eight hits and a walk. He struck out eight. Casey Fien came in and after a scoreless seventh, he gave up three runs in the top of the 8th. Joe Benson hit a two-run homer in the bottom of the 8th to cut the lead to one, but it wasn’t quite enough for the Red Wings. Darin Mastroianni went 2-3 with a walk and his fourth stolen base. His triple tied the game in regulation. Joe Thurston was 2-3 in his Red Wings debut. Ray Chang was 2-4. GAME 2 - ROCHESTER 2, SYRACUSE 3 Jeff Manship was given a spot start for the Wings and pitched quite well. Through three innings, he gave up no hits and just one walk. In the fourth, he did give up a run on two hits and a walk, but he gave the Red Wings a solid four innings. Esmerling Vasquez came in and gave up two runs on three hits and two walks in two innings. Anthony Slama struck out one in a scoreless inning. Unfortunately, the Red Wings had little offense. Matt Carson was 2-3 with his first home run of the year. Drew Butera was 2-3 with his third double. A quick note, Butera is hitting .316 now. NEW BRITAIN – No Game Scheduled The Rock Cats had a day off on Wednesday. Were they able to enjoy it? No. They got to make a nine-to-hour hour trek south to Richmond, Virginia. FT. MYERS MIRACLE 2, PALM BEACH 0 In the bottom of the second innings, Michael Gonzales knocked a single that scored Dan Rohlfing and Jairo Perez. That was about it for the offense for the Miracle. (Rohfling had singled and Perez walked). Danny Santana also hit his fourth double. Fortunately, it was enough for the Miracle pitchers. Marty Popham threw 5.2 scoreless innings. He gave up two hits, walked three and struck out four. Ricky Bowen struck out three in 2.1 scoreless innings. Caleb Thielbar pitched 1-2-3 ninth innings to pick up his first save. BELOIT 8, BOWLING GREEN 3 The Snappers bats were off and running right from the start. All eight runs were scored within the first four innings of the game. Wang-Wei Lin led the way. He was 3-5 with his fourth and fifth doubles. Eddie Rosario was 3-5 with his seventh double. (He also committed his sixth error at 2B) Jhonathan Goncalves was 3-4 with his seventh double, four RBI and stole his fourth base. Jairo Rodriguez was 2-4 with his fourth double. Miguel Sano was 1-2 with two walks and was also hit by a pitch. Matt Summers was the recipient of all the run support as he picked up his first win of the season. The right-hander went 5.2 innings and gave up three runs on five hits. He walked one and struck out five. Matt Tomshaw came in and got out of the sixth inning. He went two more innings and struck out a total of three batters. Ryan O’Rourke pitched a scoreless ninth inning. --- Players of the Day for Thursday, April 26, 2012 Hitter of the Day – Wang-Wei Lin [ATTACH=CONFIG]760[/ATTACH] Pitcher of the Day – Marty Popham [ATTACH=CONFIG]759[/ATTACH] --- A Look Ahead – Friday, April 27, 2012 Schedule Rochester @ Buffalo – RHP PJ Walters New Britain @ Richmond – LHP Andrew Albers Ft. Myers vs Palm Beach – LHP Pat Dean Beloit vs Bowling Green – RHP Madison Boer --- If you have any questions or comments on the Twins minor league system, players, teams, etc., leave them in the Comments and I’ll try to answer them!

I would say it depends on how much they think attendance will drop again. I think they anticipated this drop-off this year and adjusted payroll accordingly. They'll do the same, as appropriate, next year. That said, it will also likely make sense to have a lower payroll because, if they trade players off, they'll have a lot of league minimum players.

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C - Rohlfing 1B - Colabello 2B - Rosario 3B - Sano SS - Dozier OF - Morales, Carson, Bigley

I can’t imagine that there is a worse starting rotation in Major League Baseball than the Minnesota Twins. It was really bad last year. They added only Jason Marquis in the offseason. Scott Baker had elbow surgery that turned into Tommy John surgery. Francisco Liriano, who teased in spring training, has been so bad that he’s having a skipped start after just four starts. The Twins starting staff has an ERA over seven right now. Understandably, the thing we hear from most Twins fans is that the Twins absolutely must use their first draft choice, the #2 overall pick, on a college pitcher. The reason is obvious. The Twins need pitching, and they need it now. The perception is that college pitchers come up quickly and make an impression. Sometimes that is the case, but I wanted to do a little bit of research to show that is the right thing to do. I decided to go online and look up all of the college pitchers drafted in the top 25 players each year from 1980 through 2010 (31 years worth of data). I noted their draft slot so that I could compare pitchers drafted in the Top 5 compared to those drafted between 21 and 25. I honestly had no idea what I would fine. I know I many times have a preconceived notion that many high-profile college starting pitchers are often overused. There have been so many top college pitchers who get to the big leagues relatively quickly, have some quick success when they get there, and then their arm (shoulder or elbow) burns out, and they are a shell of their former selves. I know there are also some exceptions to that rule. I decided to use Career WAR as the stat of choice. I wanted some sort of comparative statistic that would be semi-constant in meaning. In other words, career ERA isn’t a good stat because it doesn’t provide any context, such as number of innings pitched, or what the league ERA may have been at a given time. Obviously Wins are never a good stat to use for a pitcher. So, you can argue if WAR is the right statistic for this analysis, but I think it is appropriate. I’m certain that it will be no surprise to anyone to find out that Roger Clemens, the 19th overall pick in the 1983 draft out of the University of Texas, is the leader in WAR among the 222 college pitchers selected in the top 25 picks over 30 years. His 145.5 WAR is followed most closely by Mike Mussina, the 20th overall pick in the 1990 draft out of Stanford, who had a career WAR of 85.6. Kevin Brown, the 4th overall pick in the 1986 draft from Georgia Tech, posted a career WAR of 77.2. No other college pitcher drafted in baseball’s top 25 picks from 1980 through 2010 has posted a career WAR of 36. To be fair, Justin Verlander, the #2 overall pick in the 2004 draft from Old Dominion, has career WAR of 32.5, and presumably, he will continue to pitch well for years and wind up much higher. That said, Mark Prior, the #2 overall pick in the 2001 draft from USC, had a career WAR of 16.0 through his first four big league seasons, and his career WAR was 15.8. So, you just don’t know. Here are the Top 25 college pitchers drafted in the Top 25 picks of the first round in the 1980-2010 draft, by WAR: [TABLE=width: 424] [TD=width: 53, bgcolor: transparent]Draft Yr [/TD] [TD=width: 52, bgcolor: transparent] Overall [/TD] [TD=width: 129, bgcolor: transparent]Name [/TD] [TD=width: 189, bgcolor: transparent]College [/TD] [TD=width: 99, bgcolor: transparent]Draft Team [/TD] [TD=width: 43, bgcolor: transparent] WAR [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1983 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 19 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Roger Clemens [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Texas [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Red Sox [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 145.5 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1990 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 20 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Mike Mussina [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Stanford [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Orioles [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 85.6 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1986 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 4 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Kevin Brown [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Georgia Tech [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Rangers [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 77.2 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1981 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Mike Moore [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Oral Roberts [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Mariners [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 35.7 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1988 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Andy Benes [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Evansville [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Padres [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 35.7 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1987 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 5 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Jack McDowell [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Stanford [/TD] [TD=width: 99]White Sox [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 35.0 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1986 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 2 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Greg Swindell [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Texas [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Indians [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 34.9 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1988 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 17 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Charles Nagy [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Connecticut [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Indians [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 34.4 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1991 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 23 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Aaron Sele [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Washington St [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Red Sox [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 33.6 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 2004 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 2 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Justin Verlander [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Old Dominion [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Tigers [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 32.5 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1999 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 10 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Ben Sheets [/TD] [TD=width: 189]NE Louisiana State [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Brewers [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 31.7 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1985 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 3 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Bobby Witt [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Oklahoma [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Rangers [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 31.5 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1983 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Tim Belcher [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Mt Vernon Nazarene College [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Twins [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 31.4 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1999 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 9 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Barry Zito [/TD] [TD=width: 189]USC [/TD] [TD=width: 99]A's [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 31.3 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1995 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 12 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Matt Morris [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Seton Hall [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Cardinals [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 29.5 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 2006 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 10 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Tim Lincecum [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Washington [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Giants [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 27.9 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1984 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 24 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Terry Mulholland [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Marietta College [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Giants [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 26.2 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1993 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 12 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Billy Wagner [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Ferrum College [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Astros [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 24.7 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1984 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 2 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Billy Swift [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Maine [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Mariners [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 24.4 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 2004 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 12 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Jered Weaver [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Long Beach State [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Angels [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 24.3 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1988 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 8 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Jim Abbott [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Michigan [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Angels [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 23.4 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1998 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 14 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Jeff Weaver [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Fresno State [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Tigers [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 23.2 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1981 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 9 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Ron Darling [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Yale [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Rangers [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 22.1 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1989 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Ben McDonald [/TD] [TD=width: 189]LSU [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Orioles [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 21.8 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1998 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 2 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Mark Mulder [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Michigan State [/TD] [TD=width: 99]A's [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 21.1 [/TD] [/TABLE] Among that list, you can see a few things. There are several pitchers who have high WAR because of longevity (Mulholland, Swindell) and you can see a lot of pitchers who were pretty good but injuries derailed their careers (Sheets, Witt, Morris, McDonald). Will today’s aces like Verlander, Lincecum and Jered Weaver continue to increase their WAR over time, or will they suffer some of the circumstances that so many of these guys (and the guys with career WAR of less than 20) dealt with in their careers? Of the 222 pitchers drafted in the Top 25 overall picks from 1980-2010, the 25 shown above are the only ones with a career WAR of 20 or higher. Here is a breakdown: Career WAR Pitchers >20 25 10.1 - 20 25 5.1 - 10 16 0 – 10 78 No MLB 49 Many of you may wonder why I included the Top 25 picks from each of those years, rather than just the Top 2 picks since the Twins have the #2 pick. I did so for a couple of reasons. First, the Twins have more than just two options for the draft this year. When the draft is analyzed in five or ten years, the Twins selection at #2 will be compared against guys drafted at #3, #4, #5 and throughout the first round picks. Secondly, I was of the opinion coming into the research that the likelihood of finding an “ace” was just as good at #20 as it is at #2. Finally, in 2009 and 2010, the Twins selected college pitchers. In 2009, the Twins took Kyle Gibson with the 22nd overall pick. In 2010, the Twins used the 21st overall pick on Alex Wimmers. I wanted to understand the success rates of guys taken with those picks as well. (NOTE – Gibson and Wimmers are included in the No MLB Experience category up above, and we all hope that at some point, they will get to the big leagues and be successful.) (The Twins have had high picks such as Adam Johnson and Ryan Mills that didn't pan out, but they also have found success with the likes of Mark Redman and Matt Garza in the first round.) The next thing I did with the data was look at each of the 25 draft slots. I counted how many times in those 31 years of drafts that a college pitcher was chosen with that pick. I showed the average career WAR for those players. I showed how many have No Major League experience because they are included in the ‘average.’ I also showed which pitcher drafted in that slot has the highest career WAR. Here is that chart: [TABLE=width: 427] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] Draft Slot [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] College Pitchers [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] Avg Career WAR [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] No Maj Lg Experience [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Highest Career WAR [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 11 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 15.5 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 0 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Mike Moore/Andy Benes (35.7) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 2 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 9 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 16.3 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 0 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Greg Swindell (34.9) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 3 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 10 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 7.5 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 2 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Bobby Witt (31.5) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 4 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 14 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 8 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Kevin Brown (77.2) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 5 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 9 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 4.7 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Jack McDowell (35.0) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 6 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 11 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 2.1 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 2 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Ricky Romero (9.8) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 7 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 10 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 0.8 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Dan Reichert (3.7) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 8 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 7 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 5.7 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 4 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Jim Abbott (23.4) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 9 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 7 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 11.4 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Barry Zito (31.3) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 10 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 7 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 9.1 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Ben Sheets (31.7) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 11 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 8 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 1.8 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 5 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Max Scherzer (10.9) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 12 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 5 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 17.6 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Matt Morris (29.5) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 13 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 6 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 5.6 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Mark Redman (17.3) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 14 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 7 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 4.3 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 2 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Jeff Weaver (23.2) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 15 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 6 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 0.3 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 2 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Sean Lowe (1.8) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 16 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 12 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 6 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Roberto Hernandez/Jason Jennings (15.2) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 17 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 8 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 9.3 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Charles Nagy (34.4) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 18 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 10 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 3 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 3 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Joe Magrane (15.0) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 19 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 10 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 14.8 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Roger Clemens (145.5) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 20 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 9 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 11.9 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 5 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Mike Mussina (85.6) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 21 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 12 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 2.6 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 3 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Ian Kennedy (7.9) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 22 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 10 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 3.4 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 2 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Rick Helling (15.1) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 23 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 6 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 5.9 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 3 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Aaron Sele (33.6) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 24 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 10 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 4.8 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 3 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Terry Mulholland (26.2) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 25 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 8 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 2.6 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 2 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Matt Garza (14.6) [/TD] [/TABLE] SUMMARY In summary, we could look at this data many different ways to see what it would tell us. Based on this history, the odds of the Twins drafting a college pitcher with the #2 pick and him posting a career WAR of 20 or more are like 10% History tells us that although college pitchers certainly get to the big leagues much quicker, in general, Twins fans may want to temper their enthusiasm for whoever the team takes with the #2 pick. What does this mean to the Twins? Absolutely nothing. First, as Terry Ryan said on Sunday’s “Inside Pitch” radio show, the team will take the best available player on their draft board. If it is it a position player, like Byron Buxton, Mike Zunino, or Carlos Correa, they will take that player. That is completely the right strategy. However, if the Twins’ scouts put together their list of top draft-eligible players and a college pitcher (such as Mark Appel, Kevin Gausman or Kyle Zimmer), this data should not deter them from taking that pitcher. Having the #2 overall pick is a great opportunity for the Twins to acquire a top talent. This historical perspective should provide, just that, perspective on what our expectations should be for any 1st round draft pick. However, that #2 draft slot should also provide a lot of hope that maybe the Twins can get this turned around, and pitching is the team's number one need. Having five picks in the first 72 picks of the draft is an opportunity for the Twins to add some much needed talent and life to the Twins farm system. [ATTACH=CONFIG]755[/ATTACH]

I can’t imagine that there is a worse starting rotation in Major League Baseball than the Minnesota Twins. It was really bad last year. They added only Jason Marquis in the offseason. Scott Baker had elbow surgery that turned into Tommy John surgery. Francisco Liriano, who teased in spring training, has been so bad that he’s having a skipped start after just four starts. The Twins starting staff has an ERA over seven right now. Understandably, the thing we hear from most Twins fans is that the Twins absolutely must use their first draft choice, the #2 overall pick, on a college pitcher. The reason is obvious. The Twins need pitching, and they need it now. The perception is that college pitchers come up quickly and make an impression. Sometimes that is the case, but I wanted to do a little bit of research to show that is the right thing to do. I decided to go online and look up all of the college pitchers drafted in the top 25 players each year from 1980 through 2010 (31 years worth of data). I noted their draft slot so that I could compare pitchers drafted in the Top 5 compared to those drafted between 21 and 25. I honestly had no idea what I would fine. I know I many times have a preconceived notion that many high-profile college starting pitchers are often overused. There have been so many top college pitchers who get to the big leagues relatively quickly, have some quick success when they get there, and then their arm (shoulder or elbow) burns out, and they are a shell of their former selves. I know there are also some exceptions to that rule. I decided to use Career WAR as the stat of choice. I wanted some sort of comparative statistic that would be semi-constant in meaning. In other words, career ERA isn’t a good stat because it doesn’t provide any context, such as number of innings pitched, or what the league ERA may have been at a given time. Obviously Wins are never a good stat to use for a pitcher. So, you can argue if WAR is the right statistic for this analysis, but I think it is appropriate. I’m certain that it will be no surprise to anyone to find out that Roger Clemens, the 19th overall pick in the 1983 draft out of the University of Texas, is the leader in WAR among the 222 college pitchers selected in the top 25 picks over 30 years. His 145.5 WAR is followed most closely by Mike Mussina, the 20th overall pick in the 1990 draft out of Stanford, who had a career WAR of 85.6. Kevin Brown, the 4th overall pick in the 1986 draft from Georgia Tech, posted a career WAR of 77.2. No other college pitcher drafted in baseball’s top 25 picks from 1980 through 2010 has posted a career WAR of 36. To be fair, Justin Verlander, the #2 overall pick in the 2004 draft from Old Dominion, has career WAR of 32.5, and presumably, he will continue to pitch well for years and wind up much higher. That said, Mark Prior, the #2 overall pick in the 2001 draft from USC, had a career WAR of 16.0 through his first four big league seasons, and his career WAR was 15.8. So, you just don’t know. Here are the Top 25 college pitchers drafted in the Top 25 picks of the first round in the 1980-2010 draft, by WAR: [TABLE=width: 424] [TD=width: 53, bgcolor: transparent]Draft Yr [/TD] [TD=width: 52, bgcolor: transparent] Overall [/TD] [TD=width: 129, bgcolor: transparent]Name [/TD] [TD=width: 189, bgcolor: transparent]College [/TD] [TD=width: 99, bgcolor: transparent]Draft Team [/TD] [TD=width: 43, bgcolor: transparent] WAR [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1983 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 19 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Roger Clemens [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Texas [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Red Sox [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 145.5 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1990 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 20 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Mike Mussina [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Stanford [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Orioles [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 85.6 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1986 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 4 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Kevin Brown [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Georgia Tech [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Rangers [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 77.2 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1981 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Mike Moore [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Oral Roberts [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Mariners [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 35.7 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1988 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Andy Benes [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Evansville [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Padres [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 35.7 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1987 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 5 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Jack McDowell [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Stanford [/TD] [TD=width: 99]White Sox [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 35.0 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1986 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 2 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Greg Swindell [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Texas [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Indians [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 34.9 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1988 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 17 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Charles Nagy [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Connecticut [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Indians [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 34.4 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1991 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 23 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Aaron Sele [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Washington St [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Red Sox [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 33.6 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 2004 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 2 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Justin Verlander [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Old Dominion [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Tigers [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 32.5 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1999 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 10 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Ben Sheets [/TD] [TD=width: 189]NE Louisiana State [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Brewers [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 31.7 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1985 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 3 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Bobby Witt [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Oklahoma [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Rangers [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 31.5 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1983 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Tim Belcher [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Mt Vernon Nazarene College [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Twins [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 31.4 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1999 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 9 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Barry Zito [/TD] [TD=width: 189]USC [/TD] [TD=width: 99]A's [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 31.3 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1995 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 12 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Matt Morris [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Seton Hall [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Cardinals [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 29.5 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 2006 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 10 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Tim Lincecum [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Washington [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Giants [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 27.9 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1984 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 24 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Terry Mulholland [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Marietta College [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Giants [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 26.2 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1993 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 12 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Billy Wagner [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Ferrum College [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Astros [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 24.7 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1984 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 2 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Billy Swift [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Maine [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Mariners [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 24.4 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 2004 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 12 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Jered Weaver [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Long Beach State [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Angels [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 24.3 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1988 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 8 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Jim Abbott [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Michigan [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Angels [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 23.4 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1998 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 14 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Jeff Weaver [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Fresno State [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Tigers [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 23.2 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1981 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 9 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Ron Darling [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Yale [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Rangers [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 22.1 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1989 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Ben McDonald [/TD] [TD=width: 189]LSU [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Orioles [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 21.8 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1998 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 2 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Mark Mulder [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Michigan State [/TD] [TD=width: 99]A's [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 21.1 [/TD] [/TABLE] Among that list, you can see a few things. There are several pitchers who have high WAR because of longevity (Mulholland, Swindell) and you can see a lot of pitchers who were pretty good but injuries derailed their careers (Sheets, Witt, Morris, McDonald). Will today’s aces like Verlander, Lincecum and Jered Weaver continue to increase their WAR over time, or will they suffer some of the circumstances that so many of these guys (and the guys with career WAR of less than 20) dealt with in their careers? Of the 222 pitchers drafted in the Top 25 overall picks from 1980-2010, the 25 shown above are the only ones with a career WAR of 20 or higher. Here is a breakdown: Career WAR Pitchers >20 25 10.1 - 20 25 5.1 - 10 16 0 – 10 78 No MLB 49 Many of you may wonder why I included the Top 25 picks from each of those years, rather than just the Top 2 picks since the Twins have the #2 pick. I did so for a couple of reasons. First, the Twins have more than just two options for the draft this year. When the draft is analyzed in five or ten years, the Twins selection at #2 will be compared against guys drafted at #3, #4, #5 and throughout the first round picks. Secondly, I was of the opinion coming into the research that the likelihood of finding an “ace” was just as good at #20 as it is at #2. Finally, in 2009 and 2010, the Twins selected college pitchers. In 2009, the Twins took Kyle Gibson with the 22nd overall pick. In 2010, the Twins used the 21st overall pick on Alex Wimmers. I wanted to understand the success rates of guys taken with those picks as well. (NOTE – Gibson and Wimmers are included in the No MLB Experience category up above, and we all hope that at some point, they will get to the big leagues and be successful.) (The Twins have had high picks such as Adam Johnson and Ryan Mills that didn't pan out, but they also have found success with the likes of Mark Redman and Matt Garza in the first round.) The next thing I did with the data was look at each of the 25 draft slots. I counted how many times in those 31 years of drafts that a college pitcher was chosen with that pick. I showed the average career WAR for those players. I showed how many have No Major League experience because they are included in the ‘average.’ I also showed which pitcher drafted in that slot has the highest career WAR. Here is that chart: [TABLE=width: 427] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] Draft Slot [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] College Pitchers [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] Avg Career WAR [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] No Maj Lg Experience [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Highest Career WAR [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 11 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 15.5 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 0 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Mike Moore/Andy Benes (35.7) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 2 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 9 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 16.3 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 0 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Greg Swindell (34.9) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 3 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 10 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 7.5 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 2 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Bobby Witt (31.5) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 4 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 14 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 8 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Kevin Brown (77.2) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 5 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 9 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 4.7 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Jack McDowell (35.0) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 6 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 11 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 2.1 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 2 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Ricky Romero (9.8) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 7 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 10 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 0.8 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Dan Reichert (3.7) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 8 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 7 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 5.7 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 4 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Jim Abbott (23.4) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 9 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 7 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 11.4 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Barry Zito (31.3) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 10 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 7 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 9.1 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Ben Sheets (31.7) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 11 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 8 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 1.8 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 5 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Max Scherzer (10.9) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 12 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 5 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 17.6 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Matt Morris (29.5) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 13 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 6 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 5.6 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Mark Redman (17.3) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 14 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 7 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 4.3 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 2 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Jeff Weaver (23.2) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 15 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 6 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 0.3 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 2 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Sean Lowe (1.8) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 16 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 12 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 6 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Roberto Hernandez/Jason Jennings (15.2) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 17 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 8 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 9.3 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Charles Nagy (34.4) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 18 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 10 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 3 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 3 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Joe Magrane (15.0) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 19 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 10 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 14.8 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Roger Clemens (145.5) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 20 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 9 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 11.9 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 5 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Mike Mussina (85.6) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 21 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 12 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 2.6 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 3 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Ian Kennedy (7.9) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 22 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 10 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 3.4 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 2 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Rick Helling (15.1) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 23 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 6 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 5.9 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 3 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Aaron Sele (33.6) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 24 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 10 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 4.8 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 3 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Terry Mulholland (26.2) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 25 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 8 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 2.6 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 2 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Matt Garza (14.6) [/TD] [/TABLE] SUMMARY In summary, we could look at this data many different ways to see what it would tell us. Based on this history, the odds of the Twins drafting a college pitcher with the #2 pick and him posting a career WAR of 20 or more are like 10% History tells us that although college pitchers certainly get to the big leagues much quicker, in general, Twins fans may want to temper their enthusiasm for whoever the team takes with the #2 pick. What does this mean to the Twins? Absolutely nothing. First, as Terry Ryan said on Sunday’s “Inside Pitch” radio show, the team will take the best available player on their draft board. If it is it a position player, like Byron Buxton, Mike Zunino, or Carlos Correa, they will take that player. That is completely the right strategy. However, if the Twins’ scouts put together their list of top draft-eligible players and a college pitcher (such as Mark Appel, Kevin Gausman or Kyle Zimmer), this data should not deter them from taking that pitcher. Having the #2 overall pick is a great opportunity for the Twins to acquire a top talent. This historical perspective should provide, just that, perspective on what our expectations should be for any 1st round draft pick. However, that #2 draft slot should also provide a lot of hope that maybe the Twins can get this turned around, and pitching is the team's number one need. Having five picks in the first 72 picks of the draft is an opportunity for the Twins to add some much needed talent and life to the Twins farm system.

I can’t imagine that there is a worse starting rotation in Major League Baseball than the Minnesota Twins. It was really bad last year. They added only Jason Marquis in the offseason. Scott Baker had elbow surgery that turned into Tommy John surgery. Francisco Liriano, who teased in spring training, has been so bad that he’s having a skipped start after just four starts. The Twins starting staff has an ERA over seven right now. Understandably, the thing we hear from most Twins fans is that the Twins absolutely must use their first draft choice, the #2 overall pick, on a college pitcher. The reason is obvious. The Twins need pitching, and they need it now. The perception is that college pitchers come up quickly and make an impression. Sometimes that is the case, but I wanted to do a little bit of research to show that is the right thing to do. I decided to go online and look up all of the college pitchers drafted in the top 25 players each year from 1980 through 2010 (31 years worth of data). I noted their draft slot so that I could compare pitchers drafted in the Top 5 compared to those drafted between 21 and 25. I honestly had no idea what I would fine. I know I many times have a preconceived notion that many high-profile college starting pitchers are often overused. There have been so many top college pitchers who get to the big leagues relatively quickly, have some quick success when they get there, and then their arm (shoulder or elbow) burns out, and they are a shell of their former selves. I know there are also some exceptions to that rule. I decided to use Career WAR as the stat of choice. I wanted some sort of comparative statistic that would be semi-constant in meaning. In other words, career ERA isn’t a good stat because it doesn’t provide any context, such as number of innings pitched, or what the league ERA may have been at a given time. Obviously Wins are never a good stat to use for a pitcher. So, you can argue if WAR is the right statistic for this analysis, but I think it is appropriate. I’m certain that it will be no surprise to anyone to find out that Roger Clemens, the 19th overall pick in the 1983 draft out of the University of Texas, is the leader in WAR among the 222 college pitchers selected in the top 25 picks over 30 years. His 145.5 WAR is followed most closely by Mike Mussina, the 20th overall pick in the 1990 draft out of Stanford, who had a career WAR of 85.6. Kevin Brown, the 4th overall pick in the 1986 draft from Georgia Tech, posted a career WAR of 77.2. No other college pitcher drafted in baseball’s top 25 picks from 1980 through 2010 has posted a career WAR of 36. To be fair, Justin Verlander, the #2 overall pick in the 2004 draft from Old Dominion, has career WAR of 32.5, and presumably, he will continue to pitch well for years and wind up much higher. That said, Mark Prior, the #2 overall pick in the 2001 draft from USC, had a career WAR of 16.0 through his first four big league seasons, and his career WAR was 15.8. So, you just don’t know. Here are the Top 25 college pitchers drafted in the Top 25 picks of the first round in the 1980-2010 draft, by WAR: [TABLE=width: 424] [TD=width: 53, bgcolor: transparent]Draft Yr [/TD] [TD=width: 52, bgcolor: transparent] Overall [/TD] [TD=width: 129, bgcolor: transparent]Name [/TD] [TD=width: 189, bgcolor: transparent]College [/TD] [TD=width: 99, bgcolor: transparent]Draft Team [/TD] [TD=width: 43, bgcolor: transparent] WAR [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1983 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 19 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Roger Clemens [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Texas [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Red Sox [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 145.5 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1990 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 20 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Mike Mussina [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Stanford [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Orioles [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 85.6 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1986 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 4 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Kevin Brown [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Georgia Tech [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Rangers [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 77.2 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1981 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Mike Moore [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Oral Roberts [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Mariners [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 35.7 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1988 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Andy Benes [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Evansville [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Padres [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 35.7 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1987 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 5 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Jack McDowell [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Stanford [/TD] [TD=width: 99]White Sox [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 35.0 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1986 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 2 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Greg Swindell [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Texas [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Indians [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 34.9 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1988 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 17 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Charles Nagy [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Connecticut [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Indians [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 34.4 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1991 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 23 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Aaron Sele [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Washington St [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Red Sox [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 33.6 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 2004 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 2 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Justin Verlander [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Old Dominion [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Tigers [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 32.5 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1999 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 10 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Ben Sheets [/TD] [TD=width: 189]NE Louisiana State [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Brewers [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 31.7 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1985 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 3 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Bobby Witt [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Oklahoma [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Rangers [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 31.5 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1983 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Tim Belcher [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Mt Vernon Nazarene College [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Twins [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 31.4 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1999 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 9 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Barry Zito [/TD] [TD=width: 189]USC [/TD] [TD=width: 99]A's [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 31.3 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1995 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 12 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Matt Morris [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Seton Hall [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Cardinals [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 29.5 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 2006 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 10 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Tim Lincecum [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Washington [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Giants [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 27.9 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1984 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 24 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Terry Mulholland [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Marietta College [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Giants [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 26.2 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1993 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 12 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Billy Wagner [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Ferrum College [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Astros [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 24.7 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1984 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 2 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Billy Swift [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Maine [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Mariners [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 24.4 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 2004 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 12 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Jered Weaver [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Long Beach State [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Angels [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 24.3 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1988 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 8 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Jim Abbott [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Michigan [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Angels [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 23.4 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1998 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 14 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Jeff Weaver [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Fresno State [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Tigers [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 23.2 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1981 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 9 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Ron Darling [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Yale [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Rangers [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 22.1 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1989 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Ben McDonald [/TD] [TD=width: 189]LSU [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Orioles [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 21.8 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1998 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 2 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Mark Mulder [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Michigan State [/TD] [TD=width: 99]A's [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 21.1 [/TD] [/TABLE] Among that list, you can see a few things. There are several pitchers who have high WAR because of longevity (Mulholland, Swindell) and you can see a lot of pitchers who were pretty good but injuries derailed their careers (Sheets, Witt, Morris, McDonald). Will today’s aces like Verlander, Lincecum and Jered Weaver continue to increase their WAR over time, or will they suffer some of the circumstances that so many of these guys (and the guys with career WAR of less than 20) dealt with in their careers? Of the 222 pitchers drafted in the Top 25 overall picks from 1980-2010, the 25 shown above are the only ones with a career WAR of 20 or higher. Here is a breakdown: Career WAR Pitchers >20 25 10.1 - 20 25 5.1 - 10 16 0 – 10 78 No MLB 49 Many of you may wonder why I included the Top 25 picks from each of those years, rather than just the Top 2 picks since the Twins have the #2 pick. I did so for a couple of reasons. First, the Twins have more than just two options for the draft this year. When the draft is analyzed in five or ten years, the Twins selection at #2 will be compared against guys drafted at #3, #4, #5 and throughout the first round picks. Secondly, I was of the opinion coming into the research that the likelihood of finding an “ace” was just as good at #20 as it is at #2. Finally, in 2009 and 2010, the Twins selected college pitchers. In 2009, the Twins took Kyle Gibson with the 22nd overall pick. In 2010, the Twins used the 21st overall pick on Alex Wimmers. I wanted to understand the success rates of guys taken with those picks as well. (NOTE – Gibson and Wimmers are included in the No MLB Experience category up above, and we all hope that at some point, they will get to the big leagues and be successful.) (The Twins have had high picks such as Adam Johnson and Ryan Mills that didn't pan out, but they also have found success with the likes of Mark Redman and Matt Garza in the first round.) The next thing I did with the data was look at each of the 25 draft slots. I counted how many times in those 31 years of drafts that a college pitcher was chosen with that pick. I showed the average career WAR for those players. I showed how many have No Major League experience because they are included in the ‘average.’ I also showed which pitcher drafted in that slot has the highest career WAR. Here is that chart: [TABLE=width: 427] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] Draft Slot [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] College Pitchers [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] Avg Career WAR [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] No Maj Lg Experience [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Highest Career WAR [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 11 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 15.5 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 0 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Mike Moore/Andy Benes (35.7) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 2 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 9 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 16.3 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 0 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Greg Swindell (34.9) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 3 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 10 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 7.5 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 2 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Bobby Witt (31.5) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 4 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 14 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 8 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Kevin Brown (77.2) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 5 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 9 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 4.7 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Jack McDowell (35.0) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 6 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 11 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 2.1 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 2 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Ricky Romero (9.8) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 7 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 10 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 0.8 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Dan Reichert (3.7) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 8 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 7 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 5.7 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 4 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Jim Abbott (23.4) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 9 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 7 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 11.4 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Barry Zito (31.3) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 10 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 7 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 9.1 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Ben Sheets (31.7) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 11 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 8 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 1.8 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 5 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Max Scherzer (10.9) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 12 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 5 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 17.6 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Matt Morris (29.5) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 13 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 6 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 5.6 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Mark Redman (17.3) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 14 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 7 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 4.3 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 2 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Jeff Weaver (23.2) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 15 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 6 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 0.3 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 2 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Sean Lowe (1.8) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 16 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 12 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 6 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Roberto Hernandez/Jason Jennings (15.2) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 17 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 8 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 9.3 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Charles Nagy (34.4) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 18 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 10 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 3 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 3 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Joe Magrane (15.0) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 19 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 10 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 14.8 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Roger Clemens (145.5) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 20 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 9 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 11.9 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 5 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Mike Mussina (85.6) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 21 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 12 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 2.6 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 3 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Ian Kennedy (7.9) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 22 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 10 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 3.4 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 2 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Rick Helling (15.1) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 23 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 6 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 5.9 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 3 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Aaron Sele (33.6) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 24 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 10 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 4.8 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 3 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Terry Mulholland (26.2) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 25 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 8 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 2.6 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 2 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Matt Garza (14.6) [/TD] [/TABLE] SUMMARY In summary, we could look at this data many different ways to see what it would tell us. Based on this history, the odds of the Twins drafting a college pitcher with the #2 pick and him posting a career WAR of 20 or more are like 10% History tells us that although college pitchers certainly get to the big leagues much quicker, in general, Twins fans may want to temper their enthusiasm for whoever the team takes with the #2 pick. What does this mean to the Twins? Absolutely nothing. First, as Terry Ryan said on Sunday’s “Inside Pitch” radio show, the team will take the best available player on their draft board. If it is it a position player, like Byron Buxton, Mike Zunino, or Carlos Correa, they will take that player. That is completely the right strategy. However, if the Twins’ scouts put together their list of top draft-eligible players and a college pitcher (such as Mark Appel, Kevin Gausman or Kyle Zimmer), this data should not deter them from taking that pitcher. Having the #2 overall pick is a great opportunity for the Twins to acquire a top talent. This historical perspective should provide, just that, perspective on what our expectations should be for any 1st round draft pick. However, that #2 draft slot should also provide a lot of hope that maybe the Twins can get this turned around, and pitching is the team's number one need. Having five picks in the first 72 picks of the draft is an opportunity for the Twins to add some much needed talent and life to the Twins farm system.

I can’t imagine that there is a worse starting rotation in Major League Baseball than the Minnesota Twins. It was really bad last year. They added only Jason Marquis in the offseason. Scott Baker had elbow surgery that turned into Tommy John surgery. Francisco Liriano, who teased in spring training, has been so bad that he’s having a skipped start after just four starts. The Twins starting staff has an ERA over seven right now. Understandably, the thing we hear from most Twins fans is that the Twins absolutely must use their first draft choice, the #2 overall pick, on a college pitcher. The reason is obvious. The Twins need pitching, and they need it now. The perception is that college pitchers come up quickly and make an impression. Sometimes that is the case, but I wanted to do a little bit of research to show that is the right thing to do. I decided to go online and look up all of the college pitchers drafted in the top 25 players each year from 1980 through 2010 (31 years worth of data). I noted their draft slot so that I could compare pitchers drafted in the Top 5 compared to those drafted between 21 and 25. I honestly had no idea what I would fine. I know I many times have a preconceived notion that many high-profile college starting pitchers are often overused. There have been so many top college pitchers who get to the big leagues relatively quickly, have some quick success when they get there, and then their arm (shoulder or elbow) burns out, and they are a shell of their former selves. I know there are also some exceptions to that rule. I decided to use Career WAR as the stat of choice. I wanted some sort of comparative statistic that would be semi-constant in meaning. In other words, career ERA isn’t a good stat because it doesn’t provide any context, such as number of innings pitched, or what the league ERA may have been at a given time. Obviously Wins are never a good stat to use for a pitcher. So, you can argue if WAR is the right statistic for this analysis, but I think it is appropriate. I’m certain that it will be no surprise to anyone to find out that Roger Clemens, the 19th overall pick in the 1983 draft out of the University of Texas, is the leader in WAR among the 222 college pitchers selected in the top 25 picks over 30 years. His 145.5 WAR is followed most closely by Mike Mussina, the 20th overall pick in the 1990 draft out of Stanford, who had a career WAR of 85.6. Kevin Brown, the 4th overall pick in the 1986 draft from Georgia Tech, posted a career WAR of 77.2. No other college pitcher drafted in baseball’s top 25 picks from 1980 through 2010 has posted a career WAR of 36. To be fair, Justin Verlander, the #2 overall pick in the 2004 draft from Old Dominion, has career WAR of 32.5, and presumably, he will continue to pitch well for years and wind up much higher. That said, Mark Prior, the #2 overall pick in the 2001 draft from USC, had a career WAR of 16.0 through his first four big league seasons, and his career WAR was 15.8. So, you just don’t know. Here are the Top 25 college pitchers drafted in the Top 25 picks of the first round in the 1980-2010 draft, by WAR: [TABLE=width: 424] [TD=width: 53, bgcolor: transparent]Draft Yr [/TD] [TD=width: 52, bgcolor: transparent] Overall [/TD] [TD=width: 129, bgcolor: transparent]Name [/TD] [TD=width: 189, bgcolor: transparent]College [/TD] [TD=width: 99, bgcolor: transparent]Draft Team [/TD] [TD=width: 43, bgcolor: transparent] WAR [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1983 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 19 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Roger Clemens [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Texas [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Red Sox [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 145.5 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1990 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 20 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Mike Mussina [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Stanford [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Orioles [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 85.6 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1986 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 4 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Kevin Brown [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Georgia Tech [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Rangers [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 77.2 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1981 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Mike Moore [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Oral Roberts [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Mariners [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 35.7 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1988 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Andy Benes [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Evansville [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Padres [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 35.7 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1987 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 5 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Jack McDowell [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Stanford [/TD] [TD=width: 99]White Sox [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 35.0 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1986 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 2 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Greg Swindell [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Texas [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Indians [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 34.9 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1988 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 17 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Charles Nagy [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Connecticut [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Indians [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 34.4 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1991 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 23 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Aaron Sele [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Washington St [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Red Sox [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 33.6 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 2004 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 2 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Justin Verlander [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Old Dominion [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Tigers [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 32.5 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1999 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 10 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Ben Sheets [/TD] [TD=width: 189]NE Louisiana State [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Brewers [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 31.7 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1985 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 3 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Bobby Witt [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Oklahoma [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Rangers [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 31.5 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1983 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Tim Belcher [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Mt Vernon Nazarene College [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Twins [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 31.4 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1999 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 9 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Barry Zito [/TD] [TD=width: 189]USC [/TD] [TD=width: 99]A's [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 31.3 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1995 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 12 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Matt Morris [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Seton Hall [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Cardinals [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 29.5 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 2006 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 10 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Tim Lincecum [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Washington [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Giants [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 27.9 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1984 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 24 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Terry Mulholland [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Marietta College [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Giants [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 26.2 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1993 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 12 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Billy Wagner [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Ferrum College [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Astros [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 24.7 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1984 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 2 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Billy Swift [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Maine [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Mariners [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 24.4 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 2004 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 12 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Jered Weaver [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Long Beach State [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Angels [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 24.3 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1988 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 8 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Jim Abbott [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Michigan [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Angels [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 23.4 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1998 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 14 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Jeff Weaver [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Fresno State [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Tigers [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 23.2 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1981 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 9 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Ron Darling [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Yale [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Rangers [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 22.1 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1989 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Ben McDonald [/TD] [TD=width: 189]LSU [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Orioles [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 21.8 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1998 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 2 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Mark Mulder [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Michigan State [/TD] [TD=width: 99]A's [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 21.1 [/TD] [/TABLE] Among that list, you can see a few things. There are several pitchers who have high WAR because of longevity (Mulholland, Swindell) and you can see a lot of pitchers who were pretty good but injuries derailed their careers (Sheets, Witt, Morris, McDonald). Will today’s aces like Verlander, Lincecum and Jered Weaver continue to increase their WAR over time, or will they suffer some of the circumstances that so many of these guys (and the guys with career WAR of less than 20) dealt with in their careers? Of the 222 pitchers drafted in the Top 25 overall picks from 1980-2010, the 25 shown above are the only ones with a career WAR of 20 or higher. Here is a breakdown: Career WAR Pitchers >20 25 10.1 - 20 25 5.1 - 10 16 0 – 10 78 No MLB 49 Many of you may wonder why I included the Top 25 picks from each of those years, rather than just the Top 2 picks since the Twins have the #2 pick. I did so for a couple of reasons. First, the Twins have more than just two options for the draft this year. When the draft is analyzed in five or ten years, the Twins selection at #2 will be compared against guys drafted at #3, #4, #5 and throughout the first round picks. Secondly, I was of the opinion coming into the research that the likelihood of finding an “ace” was just as good at #20 as it is at #2. Finally, in 2009 and 2010, the Twins selected college pitchers. In 2009, the Twins took Kyle Gibson with the 22nd overall pick. In 2010, the Twins used the 21st overall pick on Alex Wimmers. I wanted to understand the success rates of guys taken with those picks as well. (NOTE – Gibson and Wimmers are included in the No MLB Experience category up above, and we all hope that at some point, they will get to the big leagues and be successful.) (The Twins have had high picks such as Adam Johnson and Ryan Mills that didn't pan out, but they also have found success with the likes of Mark Redman and Matt Garza in the first round.) The next thing I did with the data was look at each of the 25 draft slots. I counted how many times in those 31 years of drafts that a college pitcher was chosen with that pick. I showed the average career WAR for those players. I showed how many have No Major League experience because they are included in the ‘average.’ I also showed which pitcher drafted in that slot has the highest career WAR. Here is that chart: [TABLE=width: 427] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] Draft Slot [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] College Pitchers [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] Avg Career WAR [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] No Maj Lg Experience [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Highest Career WAR [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 11 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 15.5 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 0 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Mike Moore/Andy Benes (35.7) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 2 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 9 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 16.3 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 0 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Greg Swindell (34.9) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 3 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 10 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 7.5 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 2 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Bobby Witt (31.5) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 4 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 14 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 8 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Kevin Brown (77.2) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 5 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 9 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 4.7 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Jack McDowell (35.0) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 6 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 11 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 2.1 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 2 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Ricky Romero (9.8) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 7 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 10 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 0.8 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Dan Reichert (3.7) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 8 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 7 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 5.7 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 4 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Jim Abbott (23.4) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 9 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 7 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 11.4 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Barry Zito (31.3) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 10 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 7 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 9.1 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Ben Sheets (31.7) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 11 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 8 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 1.8 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 5 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Max Scherzer (10.9) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 12 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 5 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 17.6 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Matt Morris (29.5) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 13 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 6 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 5.6 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Mark Redman (17.3) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 14 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 7 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 4.3 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 2 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Jeff Weaver (23.2) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 15 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 6 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 0.3 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 2 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Sean Lowe (1.8) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 16 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 12 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 6 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Roberto Hernandez/Jason Jennings (15.2) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 17 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 8 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 9.3 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Charles Nagy (34.4) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 18 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 10 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 3 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 3 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Joe Magrane (15.0) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 19 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 10 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 14.8 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Roger Clemens (145.5) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 20 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 9 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 11.9 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 5 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Mike Mussina (85.6) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 21 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 12 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 2.6 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 3 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Ian Kennedy (7.9) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 22 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 10 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 3.4 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 2 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Rick Helling (15.1) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 23 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 6 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 5.9 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 3 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Aaron Sele (33.6) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 24 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 10 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 4.8 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 3 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Terry Mulholland (26.2) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 25 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 8 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 2.6 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 2 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Matt Garza (14.6) [/TD] [/TABLE] SUMMARY In summary, we could look at this data many different ways to see what it would tell us. Based on this history, the odds of the Twins drafting a college pitcher with the #2 pick and him posting a career WAR of 20 or more are like 10% History tells us that although college pitchers certainly get to the big leagues much quicker, in general, Twins fans may want to temper their enthusiasm for whoever the team takes with the #2 pick. What does this mean to the Twins? Absolutely nothing. First, as Terry Ryan said on Sunday’s “Inside Pitch” radio show, the team will take the best available player on their draft board. If it is it a position player, like Byron Buxton, Mike Zunino, or Carlos Correa, they will take that player. That is completely the right strategy. However, if the Twins’ scouts put together their list of top draft-eligible players and a college pitcher (such as Mark Appel, Kevin Gausman or Kyle Zimmer), this data should not deter them from taking that pitcher. Having the #2 overall pick is a great opportunity for the Twins to acquire a top talent. This historical perspective should provide, just that, perspective on what our expectations should be for any 1st round draft pick. However, that #2 draft slot should also provide a lot of hope that maybe the Twins can get this turned around, and pitching is the team's number one need. Having five picks in the first 72 picks of the draft is an opportunity for the Twins to add some much needed talent and life to the Twins farm system.

I can’t imagine that there is a worse starting rotation in Major League Baseball than the Minnesota Twins. It was really bad last year. They added only Jason Marquis in the offseason. Scott Baker had elbow surgery that turned into Tommy John surgery. Francisco Liriano, who teased in spring training, has been so bad that he’s having a skipped start after just four starts. The Twins starting staff has an ERA over seven right now. Understandably, the thing we hear from most Twins fans is that the Twins absolutely must use their first draft choice, the #2 overall pick, on a college pitcher. The reason is obvious. The Twins need pitching, and they need it now. The perception is that college pitchers come up quickly and make an impression. Sometimes that is the case, but I wanted to do a little bit of research to show that is the right thing to do. I decided to go online and look up all of the college pitchers drafted in the top 25 players each year from 1980 through 2010 (31 years worth of data). I noted their draft slot so that I could compare pitchers drafted in the Top 5 compared to those drafted between 21 and 25. I honestly had no idea what I would fine. I know I many times have a preconceived notion that many high-profile college starting pitchers are often overused. There have been so many top college pitchers who get to the big leagues relatively quickly, have some quick success when they get there, and then their arm (shoulder or elbow) burns out, and they are a shell of their former selves. I know there are also some exceptions to that rule. I decided to use Career WAR as the stat of choice. I wanted some sort of comparative statistic that would be semi-constant in meaning. In other words, career ERA isn’t a good stat because it doesn’t provide any context, such as number of innings pitched, or what the league ERA may have been at a given time. Obviously Wins are never a good stat to use for a pitcher. So, you can argue if WAR is the right statistic for this analysis, but I think it is appropriate. I’m certain that it will be no surprise to anyone to find out that Roger Clemens, the 19th overall pick in the 1983 draft out of the University of Texas, is the leader in WAR among the 222 college pitchers selected in the top 25 picks over 30 years. His 145.5 WAR is followed most closely by Mike Mussina, the 20th overall pick in the 1990 draft out of Stanford, who had a career WAR of 85.6. Kevin Brown, the 4th overall pick in the 1986 draft from Georgia Tech, posted a career WAR of 77.2. No other college pitcher drafted in baseball’s top 25 picks from 1980 through 2010 has posted a career WAR of 36. To be fair, Justin Verlander, the #2 overall pick in the 2004 draft from Old Dominion, has career WAR of 32.5, and presumably, he will continue to pitch well for years and wind up much higher. That said, Mark Prior, the #2 overall pick in the 2001 draft from USC, had a career WAR of 16.0 through his first four big league seasons, and his career WAR was 15.8. So, you just don’t know. Here are the Top 25 college pitchers drafted in the Top 25 picks of the first round in the 1980-2010 draft, by WAR: [TABLE=width: 424] [TD=width: 53, bgcolor: transparent]Draft Yr [/TD] [TD=width: 52, bgcolor: transparent] Overall [/TD] [TD=width: 129, bgcolor: transparent]Name [/TD] [TD=width: 189, bgcolor: transparent]College [/TD] [TD=width: 99, bgcolor: transparent]Draft Team [/TD] [TD=width: 43, bgcolor: transparent] WAR [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1983 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 19 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Roger Clemens [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Texas [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Red Sox [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 145.5 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1990 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 20 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Mike Mussina [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Stanford [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Orioles [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 85.6 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1986 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 4 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Kevin Brown [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Georgia Tech [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Rangers [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 77.2 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1981 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Mike Moore [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Oral Roberts [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Mariners [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 35.7 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1988 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Andy Benes [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Evansville [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Padres [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 35.7 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1987 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 5 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Jack McDowell [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Stanford [/TD] [TD=width: 99]White Sox [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 35.0 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1986 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 2 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Greg Swindell [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Texas [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Indians [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 34.9 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1988 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 17 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Charles Nagy [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Connecticut [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Indians [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 34.4 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1991 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 23 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Aaron Sele [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Washington St [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Red Sox [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 33.6 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 2004 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 2 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Justin Verlander [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Old Dominion [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Tigers [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 32.5 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1999 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 10 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Ben Sheets [/TD] [TD=width: 189]NE Louisiana State [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Brewers [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 31.7 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1985 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 3 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Bobby Witt [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Oklahoma [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Rangers [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 31.5 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1983 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Tim Belcher [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Mt Vernon Nazarene College [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Twins [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 31.4 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1999 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 9 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Barry Zito [/TD] [TD=width: 189]USC [/TD] [TD=width: 99]A's [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 31.3 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1995 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 12 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Matt Morris [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Seton Hall [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Cardinals [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 29.5 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 2006 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 10 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Tim Lincecum [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Washington [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Giants [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 27.9 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1984 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 24 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Terry Mulholland [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Marietta College [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Giants [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 26.2 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1993 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 12 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Billy Wagner [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Ferrum College [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Astros [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 24.7 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1984 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 2 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Billy Swift [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Maine [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Mariners [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 24.4 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 2004 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 12 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Jered Weaver [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Long Beach State [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Angels [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 24.3 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1988 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 8 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Jim Abbott [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Michigan [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Angels [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 23.4 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1998 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 14 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Jeff Weaver [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Fresno State [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Tigers [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 23.2 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1981 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 9 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Ron Darling [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Yale [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Rangers [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 22.1 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1989 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Ben McDonald [/TD] [TD=width: 189]LSU [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Orioles [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 21.8 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1998 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 2 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Mark Mulder [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Michigan State [/TD] [TD=width: 99]A's [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 21.1 [/TD] [/TABLE] Among that list, you can see a few things. There are several pitchers who have high WAR because of longevity (Mulholland, Swindell) and you can see a lot of pitchers who were pretty good but injuries derailed their careers (Sheets, Witt, Morris, McDonald). Will today’s aces like Verlander, Lincecum and Jered Weaver continue to increase their WAR over time, or will they suffer some of the circumstances that so many of these guys (and the guys with career WAR of less than 20) dealt with in their careers? Of the 222 pitchers drafted in the Top 25 overall picks from 1980-2010, the 25 shown above are the only ones with a career WAR of 20 or higher. Here is a breakdown: Career WAR Pitchers >20 25 10.1 - 20 25 5.1 - 10 16 0 – 10 78 No MLB 49 Many of you may wonder why I included the Top 25 picks from each of those years, rather than just the Top 2 picks since the Twins have the #2 pick. I did so for a couple of reasons. First, the Twins have more than just two options for the draft this year. When the draft is analyzed in five or ten years, the Twins selection at #2 will be compared against guys drafted at #3, #4, #5 and throughout the first round picks. Secondly, I was of the opinion coming into the research that the likelihood of finding an “ace” was just as good at #20 as it is at #2. Finally, in 2009 and 2010, the Twins selected college pitchers. In 2009, the Twins took Kyle Gibson with the 22nd overall pick. In 2010, the Twins used the 21st overall pick on Alex Wimmers. I wanted to understand the success rates of guys taken with those picks as well. (NOTE – Gibson and Wimmers are included in the No MLB Experience category up above, and we all hope that at some point, they will get to the big leagues and be successful.) (The Twins have had high picks such as Adam Johnson and Ryan Mills that didn't pan out, but they also have found success with the likes of Mark Redman and Matt Garza in the first round.) The next thing I did with the data was look at each of the 25 draft slots. I counted how many times in those 31 years of drafts that a college pitcher was chosen with that pick. I showed the average career WAR for those players. I showed how many have No Major League experience because they are included in the ‘average.’ I also showed which pitcher drafted in that slot has the highest career WAR. Here is that chart: [TABLE=width: 427] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] Draft Slot [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] College Pitchers [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] Avg Career WAR [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] No Maj Lg Experience [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Highest Career WAR [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 11 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 15.5 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 0 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Mike Moore/Andy Benes (35.7) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 2 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 9 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 16.3 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 0 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Greg Swindell (34.9) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 3 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 10 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 7.5 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 2 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Bobby Witt (31.5) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 4 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 14 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 8 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Kevin Brown (77.2) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 5 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 9 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 4.7 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Jack McDowell (35.0) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 6 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 11 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 2.1 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 2 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Ricky Romero (9.8) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 7 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 10 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 0.8 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Dan Reichert (3.7) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 8 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 7 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 5.7 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 4 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Jim Abbott (23.4) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 9 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 7 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 11.4 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Barry Zito (31.3) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 10 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 7 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 9.1 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Ben Sheets (31.7) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 11 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 8 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 1.8 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 5 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Max Scherzer (10.9) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 12 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 5 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 17.6 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Matt Morris (29.5) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 13 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 6 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 5.6 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Mark Redman (17.3) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 14 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 7 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 4.3 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 2 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Jeff Weaver (23.2) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 15 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 6 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 0.3 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 2 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Sean Lowe (1.8) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 16 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 12 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 6 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Roberto Hernandez/Jason Jennings (15.2) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 17 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 8 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 9.3 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Charles Nagy (34.4) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 18 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 10 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 3 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 3 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Joe Magrane (15.0) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 19 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 10 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 14.8 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Roger Clemens (145.5) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 20 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 9 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 11.9 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 5 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Mike Mussina (85.6) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 21 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 12 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 2.6 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 3 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Ian Kennedy (7.9) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 22 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 10 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 3.4 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 2 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Rick Helling (15.1) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 23 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 6 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 5.9 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 3 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Aaron Sele (33.6) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 24 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 10 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 4.8 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 3 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Terry Mulholland (26.2) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 25 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 8 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 2.6 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 2 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Matt Garza (14.6) [/TD] [/TABLE] SUMMARY In summary, we could look at this data many different ways to see what it would tell us. Based on this history, the odds of the Twins drafting a college pitcher with the #2 pick and him posting a career WAR of 20 or more are like 10% History tells us that although college pitchers certainly get to the big leagues much quicker, in general, Twins fans may want to temper their enthusiasm for whoever the team takes with the #2 pick. What does this mean to the Twins? Absolutely nothing. First, as Terry Ryan said on Sunday’s “Inside Pitch” radio show, the team will take the best available player on their draft board. If it is it a position player, like Byron Buxton, Mike Zunino, or Carlos Correa, they will take that player. That is completely the right strategy. However, if the Twins’ scouts put together their list of top draft-eligible players and a college pitcher (such as Mark Appel, Kevin Gausman or Kyle Zimmer), this data should not deter them from taking that pitcher. Having the #2 overall pick is a great opportunity for the Twins to acquire a top talent. This historical perspective should provide, just that, perspective on what our expectations should be for any 1st round draft pick. However, that #2 draft slot should also provide a lot of hope that maybe the Twins can get this turned around, and pitching is the team's number one need. Having five picks in the first 72 picks of the draft is an opportunity for the Twins to add some much needed talent and life to the Twins farm system.