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Everything posted by Seth Stohs
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Article: A (Twins) Territory Divided
Seth Stohs replied to John Bonnes's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I voted Stand Pat when the TD poll came out last weekend. At the time, I wanted to see how the Astros and Yankees and Dodgers series went. The Twins went 3-3 against the Astros and Yankees and are now 1/2 game out of the division lead and the 2nd wild card, so as of today, I'm good with Buying... But that could change against after playing Detroit this weekend... and against after playing in Los Angeles... -
Not agreeing or disagreeing, but what about him indicates that he could move up fast?
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I'd think they'd start him in Cedar Rapids. He should be doing some hitting soon, and by Instructs, he should be full go. So, by next spring, he should be fine.
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Melo just doesn't have the velocity that he did right after his return, but he's been pitching well. It was surprising when he was DFAd, and maybe more surprising that he wasn't claimed. Good deal for the Twins. Park has been pretty good the last 34 games. He's hit .328/.366/.516 (.833) with 10 doubles, two triples and three homers. I can't imagine there'd be any trade value for the 31-year-old, but if they were offered pretty much anything for him, I'm sure they'd take it. And yes, that was Thorpe's longest outing. Previous high was 5.2 innings. But you're right. 80 pitches in 7 innings is very efficient. He has thrown 84 pitches in 5 innings earlier, and a couple of starts ago, he threw 99 pitches in 5.2 innings.
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Talked to him last week. He arrived in Ft. Myers last Tuesday (8-9 days ago).
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We are less than two weeks away from the July 31 trade deadline. It is still fair to question whether the Twins are going to be buyers or sellers, both or neither at the deadline. They are 3-3 in six games against the Astros (1-2) and Yankees (2-1) and have stayed above .500. They are a half a game behind Cleveland in the American League Central, and they are half a game behind the Yankees for the second wild card spot. So who are the players that might be available in a trade?Over the coming week we’ll take a look which teams are buyers and sellers and who the Twins could look to acquire. We’ll start with the teams in the National League West division. STANDINGS Los Angeles Dodgers - 66-29 Colorado Rockies - 56-41 (11 games back) Arizona Diamondbacks - 54-40 (11.5 games back) San Diego Padres - 40-54 San Francisco Giants - 37-59 As things sit right now, the Rockies and Diamondbacks are the two Wild Card teams. The Cubs are currently five games out of the second Wild Card spot. We know they’ll make some moves, so will Colorado and Arizona be willing to add some players? THE BUYERS If the Twins decide to sell, which would be disappointing as things stand today (but may be different in a week), the Dodgers, Rockies and Diamondbacks could be calling. Brian Dozier, Brandon Kintzler and Ervin Santana will be the primary names tossed around (no surprise). The Dodgers wouldn’t trade Cody Bellinger for Brian Dozier in the offseason. I’m guessing he’s not available at this point either. THE SELLERS As of right now, the Twins should be leaning toward buying, and if that’s the case, the Padres and the Giants are teams that should be looking to sell. I assume that the Twins have already had discussions with the GMs from both teams. So, who could be on the table? The Padres While the Twins front office has indicated that it isn’t as interested in acquiring rental players (guys who will be free agents at the end of the season), those types of players can be had without getting rid of as big of a prospect, so they can’t be completely ignored. The Padres have a few starters who are likely very available. All three are free agents at the end of the season. Clayton Richard (33), who the Twins were said to be at least somewhat interested in before the season, has been terrible. He’s got a 4.75 ERA and a 1.52 WHIP through 19 starts. Jhoulys Chacin (29) has been mediocre. He’s got a 4.33 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP .He’s got 92 strikeouts in 108 innings. Trevor Cahill (29) missed two months earlier in the season, but he’s been pretty good since his return. He’s got a 3.38 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP. In 50.2 innings, he walked 19 and struck out 63. I mean, if you want, you could go after Jered Weaver who has an ERA way over 7 and a WHIP near 1.50. He’s also been on the disabled list. He also throws 82 mph. Of course, the Big Fish of the Padres is Chaska native, left-handed reliever Brad Hand. He was a deserving All-Star this year and he’s controllable for at least another two years beyond 2017. Recently, the Padres made it known that they want and expect a return for Hand similar to what the Phillies got to Ken Giles. That is to say a package of three or four players, including a top prospect or two. The Giants The Giants have probably been the biggest disappointment in baseball this season. They have a top-5 payroll and have been unable to get things rolling at all in 2017. So they would likely love to make some trades and push toward 2018. While there will be some position players, like Denard Span or even Brandon Crawford at the right price, the Twins focus should primarily be pitching. The Giants have pitchers with names, and big contracts. Johnny Cueto’s name has not really surfaced in rumors, but he would cost a team approximately $22 million a year through the 2021 season (and a team option for 2022) along with a haul of prospects. The 31-year-old is 6-7 with a 4.59 ERA and a career-high (by a long shot) 3.2 walks per nine innings. Jeff Samardzija’s name has been discussed in rumors as several teams have inquired about him. He is owed about $19.5 million for the next two seasons. He is 4-11 with a 4.86 ERA this season. While he hasn’t been particularly good for the last three seasons (posting ERA+ of 79, 104 and 85), he does eat a ton of innings. He’s posted over 200 innings four straight years and is on pace to be close to that number again. Speaking of long-term contracts that didn’t work out well, Matt Cain was a top pitcher for the Giants for several years. Then he signed a six-year, $127.5 million contract and has been hurt a majority of the time since. He’s healthy this year, and his 5.49 ERA would be his lowest in three years. However, his 1.67 WHIP makes the 32-year-old pretty Colon-like. He can become a free agent at season’s end. The intriguing name in the Giants rotation might just be Matt Moore. He was one of the top prospects in baseball (he, Mike Trout and Bryce Harper were consensus Top 3 guys) with the Rays. He went 17-4 in 2013. They signed him to a team-friendly deal soon after he debuted. early in 2014, he needed Tommy John surgery and missed most of that season and over half of 2015 as well. Last year, the Rays traded him to the Giants. This year, he is 3-10 with a 5.81 ERA and a 1.64 WHIP. He’s got options for 2018 at $9 million and 2019 at $10 million. So, while he’s been pretty bad this year, he just turned 28 in June. If pro scouts believe that he is healthy and still has some stuff, Moore could be a relatively inexpensive option for two more years. I can’t imagine the prospect-return on any of these guys would be real high due to their contract size and/or performance this year. Evaluators just need to determine what they have left and whether or not they could help the team. Personally, Moore is the only one that is relatively intriguing. As for bullpen arms, the one interesting name might be Sam Dyson. He was good last year, but he began this year just terrible for the Texas Rangers. They let him go, and the Giants signed him. In 15 games, he has an ERA of 2.76 in 16.1 innings in San Francisco. He’s recorded five saves, taking over closer duties since Mark Melancon has been on the DL. Could he be available for cheap? Other Relievers: George Kontos, Cory Gearrin. SUMMARY There is a clear team at the top in the Dodgers who have proven they aren’t afraid to spend money. They have a smart front office that hasn’t been willing to just hand away prospects, but they could be buyers. Both the Diamondbacks and Rockies have been surprises in 2017. If the season ended now, which would be unfortunate for fans, they would both be wild card teams. They may have some interest in acquiring some additional talent at the deadline, particularly bullpen help. Meanwhile, winning teams will be frequently calling the Giants and Padres as those teams have been out of contention for quite some time already. Players are available. There are some big names who will be in the rumors, but the clear choice for best player available from the division is Brad Hand, and the steep asking price illustrates that well. What do you think? Could there be a match with the Twins somewhere in the NL West? Click here to view the article
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Over the coming week we’ll take a look which teams are buyers and sellers and who the Twins could look to acquire. We’ll start with the teams in the National League West division. STANDINGS Los Angeles Dodgers - 66-29 Colorado Rockies - 56-41 (11 games back) Arizona Diamondbacks - 54-40 (11.5 games back) San Diego Padres - 40-54 San Francisco Giants - 37-59 As things sit right now, the Rockies and Diamondbacks are the two Wild Card teams. The Cubs are currently five games out of the second Wild Card spot. We know they’ll make some moves, so will Colorado and Arizona be willing to add some players? THE BUYERS If the Twins decide to sell, which would be disappointing as things stand today (but may be different in a week), the Dodgers, Rockies and Diamondbacks could be calling. Brian Dozier, Brandon Kintzler and Ervin Santana will be the primary names tossed around (no surprise). The Dodgers wouldn’t trade Cody Bellinger for Brian Dozier in the offseason. I’m guessing he’s not available at this point either. THE SELLERS As of right now, the Twins should be leaning toward buying, and if that’s the case, the Padres and the Giants are teams that should be looking to sell. I assume that the Twins have already had discussions with the GMs from both teams. So, who could be on the table? The Padres While the Twins front office has indicated that it isn’t as interested in acquiring rental players (guys who will be free agents at the end of the season), those types of players can be had without getting rid of as big of a prospect, so they can’t be completely ignored. The Padres have a few starters who are likely very available. All three are free agents at the end of the season. Clayton Richard (33), who the Twins were said to be at least somewhat interested in before the season, has been terrible. He’s got a 4.75 ERA and a 1.52 WHIP through 19 starts. Jhoulys Chacin (29) has been mediocre. He’s got a 4.33 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP .He’s got 92 strikeouts in 108 innings. Trevor Cahill (29) missed two months earlier in the season, but he’s been pretty good since his return. He’s got a 3.38 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP. In 50.2 innings, he walked 19 and struck out 63. I mean, if you want, you could go after Jered Weaver who has an ERA way over 7 and a WHIP near 1.50. He’s also been on the disabled list. He also throws 82 mph. Of course, the Big Fish of the Padres is Chaska native, left-handed reliever Brad Hand. He was a deserving All-Star this year and he’s controllable for at least another two years beyond 2017. Recently, the Padres made it known that they want and expect a return for Hand similar to what the Phillies got to Ken Giles. That is to say a package of three or four players, including a top prospect or two. The Giants The Giants have probably been the biggest disappointment in baseball this season. They have a top-5 payroll and have been unable to get things rolling at all in 2017. So they would likely love to make some trades and push toward 2018. While there will be some position players, like Denard Span or even Brandon Crawford at the right price, the Twins focus should primarily be pitching. The Giants have pitchers with names, and big contracts. Johnny Cueto’s name has not really surfaced in rumors, but he would cost a team approximately $22 million a year through the 2021 season (and a team option for 2022) along with a haul of prospects. The 31-year-old is 6-7 with a 4.59 ERA and a career-high (by a long shot) 3.2 walks per nine innings. Jeff Samardzija’s name has been discussed in rumors as several teams have inquired about him. He is owed about $19.5 million for the next two seasons. He is 4-11 with a 4.86 ERA this season. While he hasn’t been particularly good for the last three seasons (posting ERA+ of 79, 104 and 85), he does eat a ton of innings. He’s posted over 200 innings four straight years and is on pace to be close to that number again. Speaking of long-term contracts that didn’t work out well, Matt Cain was a top pitcher for the Giants for several years. Then he signed a six-year, $127.5 million contract and has been hurt a majority of the time since. He’s healthy this year, and his 5.49 ERA would be his lowest in three years. However, his 1.67 WHIP makes the 32-year-old pretty Colon-like. He can become a free agent at season’s end. The intriguing name in the Giants rotation might just be Matt Moore. He was one of the top prospects in baseball (he, Mike Trout and Bryce Harper were consensus Top 3 guys) with the Rays. He went 17-4 in 2013. They signed him to a team-friendly deal soon after he debuted. early in 2014, he needed Tommy John surgery and missed most of that season and over half of 2015 as well. Last year, the Rays traded him to the Giants. This year, he is 3-10 with a 5.81 ERA and a 1.64 WHIP. He’s got options for 2018 at $9 million and 2019 at $10 million. So, while he’s been pretty bad this year, he just turned 28 in June. If pro scouts believe that he is healthy and still has some stuff, Moore could be a relatively inexpensive option for two more years. I can’t imagine the prospect-return on any of these guys would be real high due to their contract size and/or performance this year. Evaluators just need to determine what they have left and whether or not they could help the team. Personally, Moore is the only one that is relatively intriguing. As for bullpen arms, the one interesting name might be Sam Dyson. He was good last year, but he began this year just terrible for the Texas Rangers. They let him go, and the Giants signed him. In 15 games, he has an ERA of 2.76 in 16.1 innings in San Francisco. He’s recorded five saves, taking over closer duties since Mark Melancon has been on the DL. Could he be available for cheap? Other Relievers: George Kontos, Cory Gearrin. SUMMARY There is a clear team at the top in the Dodgers who have proven they aren’t afraid to spend money. They have a smart front office that hasn’t been willing to just hand away prospects, but they could be buyers. Both the Diamondbacks and Rockies have been surprises in 2017. If the season ended now, which would be unfortunate for fans, they would both be wild card teams. They may have some interest in acquiring some additional talent at the deadline, particularly bullpen help. Meanwhile, winning teams will be frequently calling the Giants and Padres as those teams have been out of contention for quite some time already. Players are available. There are some big names who will be in the rumors, but the clear choice for best player available from the division is Brad Hand, and the steep asking price illustrates that well. What do you think? Could there be a match with the Twins somewhere in the NL West?
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The E-Twins were down 5-0 after 2 innings, and 7-2 in the 5th inning. A nine-run eighth innings made it a blowout. They did the same thing on Monday when I wrote the report... 0-0 game through 7 innings, they then scored 5 and 8 in the final two innings. They have some talent.
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Article: Rooker Promoted: Aggressive, or No?
Seth Stohs replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
It is because it's consistent and gives context. A guy who is 3 years younger than average and holding his own is likely a better prospect than a guy who is 1 year older than average. We get that... but there are variables, like college/JC/HS draft, where they're from, etc.,- 54 replies
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Article: Rooker Promoted: Aggressive, or No?
Seth Stohs replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Age matters in prospect rankings. I don't think anyone would deny that... But obviously a guy who goes to 3-4 years of college will always be behind the 8-ball when it comes to such things. The hope is that the cream will rise to the crop, and there are many examples of that.- 54 replies
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Article: Rooker Promoted: Aggressive, or No?
Seth Stohs replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I'm guessing there may have been a little bit of sarcasm in that paragraph...- 54 replies
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Article: Rooker Promoted: Aggressive, or No?
Seth Stohs replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
My point is that it can't be a cookie cutter thing. Not every college player, even from the great conferences, are the same. Caleb Hamilton came from Oregon State. He's spent this season in Cedar Rapids. Is that a bad decision? No. He's catching now some, he's playing other positions, and he wasn't a top player from that top team. He's where he should be. Brandon Lopez and Mitchell Kranson are already in Ft. Myers now after being drafted last year, as 9th and 10th round picks. To me, that's pretty impressive. LaMonte Wade moved up to AA after just like 23 games in High A. That's aggressive. But, Kyle Wright's first appearance for the Braves was in the GCL... Brendan McKay is playing in short-season A. They're all different. And you're right... Walker isn't a good example... He wasn't a #1 pick. He was a 3rd round pick, and not from a top conference (though a good southern conference). He had his areas that he needed to work on. Any evaluater knew that, and that's why it was wise for the Twins to move him as he did, giving him at least an opportunity to work on those things at those levels. Could they have figured him out sooner by starting him at AA instead? Sure, he would have been a strikeout machine, and he wouldn't have been given a fair chance to develop those things he needed to.- 54 replies
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Agreed... I would hope at this point they're just having everyone do that.
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I would agree. I think it's all about the curveball for Turley. It's really good, but he couldn't command it in his three MLB starts. I wonder if the stitches on the ball being different had anything to do with it? I think Turley's got really good stuff, potential to be a solid middle or long reliever, so I'm glad they haven't DFAd him.
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I have no problem with giving Colon another start. The first four innings were good. Obviously he's got to be perfect and get good defense to have any success. Frankly, I'd rather Colon take his lumps against the Yankees and the Dodgers than Gonsalves or Romero. I'm good with Granite hitting #2. Frankly, he should be #1, but obviously Dozier is going to be there. While he hasn't shown it through the first 4-6 games in numbers, I love the approach. He needs a few to fall in. I'm fine moving him down in the order at this point, but I have no problem with Molitor putting him there.
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I agree on Quintana. I would also note that I'm like 98% sure that John continues to pronounce Stephen as "Stefan" despite the fact that I've told him on several occasions that it's the normal "Steven" pronunciation just to get on my nerves. Now I just laugh cuz I know he's doing it on purpose. Ha! As for Chris Gimenez, John and Aaron are correct. From Phil Miller's spring training article on him:
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On Tuesday afternoon, news came out that Brent Rooker had been promoted from Elizabethton to Ft. Myers. It was a strategy the Twins had mentioned after selecting the four-year college start from Mississippi State with the 35th overall pick (supplemental 1st round). He played in 22 games for Elizabethton and posted a.952 OPS with seven homers. John Bonnes tweeted the following: I hear stuff like that a lot. Many believe that the Twins aren’t aggressive enough with prospects. But for a 2017 draft pick, even a college hitter, I think that jumping to High-A ball is pretty aggressive. But honestly, I was just really curious. I needed to know.So, I went to Baseball-Reference (I know, obviously) and researched which college hitters were drafted ahead of Brent Rooker in the 2017 draft. I was curious to see where other teams had started those players and where they are now, if different. Secondly, because Rooker is a four-year college guy (the Twins actually drafted him in 2016 in the 38th round), I thought it would make sense to look at the college hitters drafted in the first round in 2016 as well. For them, I was curious where they got to by the end of 2016 as well as where they are right now, midway through the 2017 season. I’m willing to admit when I’m wrong, but I did have a couple of assumptions in my mind before doing the research. I assumed that none of the other college hitters drafted in 2017 have reached High-A yet. I did expect that a couple of the very high draft picks would be at Low A by now.I assumed that most of the college hitters drafted in 2016’s first round were at least at High-A, unless there was an injury at play or something.The College Hitters Drafted in 2017 ahead of Brent Rooker (4) Brendan McKay - Tampa Bay Rays - There were rumors that the Twins were interested in the two-way player from Louisville. To this point, McKay has played in just two games in the New York-Penn League (NYPL) which is a short-season A league. The Twins don’t have a short-season A club, but the level is between Advanced Rookie Leagues like the Appalachian League and Low-A Leagues like the Midwest League. McKay is 0-8 with 4 strikeouts, but I think that would be considered Small Sample Size. (7) Pavin Smith - Virginia - Arizona Diamondbacks - Smith has played in 20 games for the DBacks affiliate in the Northwest League. Like the NYPL, the Northwest League is a short-season A league. (8) Adam Haseley - Virginia - Philadelphia Phillies - Smith’s teammate began his pro career with three games in the GCL before moving up to the NYPL where he’s played in 14 games. (9) Keston Hiura - Milwaukee Brewers - Hiura, who was drafted out of UC-Irvine, has played in 15 games for the Brewers affiliate in the Arizona League which is similar to the Gulf Coast League (the lower short-season league), though he is hitting .435 (1.339 OPS). (11) Jake Burger - Chicago White Sox - Burger was drafted out of Missouri State. He played in four games in the Arizona League before moving up to the White Sox Low A affiliate in the South Atlantic League (Low A). (17) Evan White - Seattle Mariners - The first baseman was drafted out of Kentucky. The Mariners have had him play 14 games so far in the Northwest League (short-season A). (22) Logan Warmoth - Toronto Blue Jays - The middle infielder selected out of North Carolina began his career with five games in the GCL. He moved up to the Northwest League (short-season). (23) Jaren Kendall - Los Angeles Dodgers - The Wisconsin kid was drafted out of Vanderbilt. He signed on the final signing day, so he is yet to play in a game. (33) Kevin Merrell - Oakland A’s - Drafted out of South Florida, the A’s placed Merrell in the NYPL to start his career. SUMMARY Of nine college hitters drafted before Brent Rooker at the 35th pick, here is the quick breakdown of where they are playing right now: Low Rookie - 1 Advanced Rookie - 3 Short-season A - 3 Low A - 1 Rooker played 22 games for Elizabethton (Advanced Rookie) before playing in his first Ft. Myers Miracle (High-A) game on Tuesday night. While he is the first to play in High-A from this group, it doesn’t mean he’ll be the last. In fact, it’s likely he won’t be. He shouldn’t be as the 35th overall pick, not when there are five college hitters who were taken in the first 11 picks. And, of course, on an even bigger level, we won’t really know the value of any of these picks for another half-dozen years, at least. The College Hitters Drafted In 2016s First Round (2) Nick Senzel - Cincinnati Reds - The second overall pick in the draft out of Tennessee, Senzel reached the Midwest League last season. He began this year in the Florida State League, but he was promoted to AA where he has now played 23 games. (5) Corey Ray - Milwaukee Brewers - Drafted out of Louisville, Ray started his career with three games in Low A before being pushed to High A where he played 57 games to end the season. That is where he remains to this point in the 2017 season as well. The only difference is that the Brewers High-A affiliate is now in the Carolina League. (10) Zack Collins - Chicago White Sox - Collins was playing in the Florida State League shortly after playing in the College World Series. That is where he remains to this point in the 2017 season. (11) Kyle Lewis - Seattle Mariners - Lewis was believed by some to be a possibility as the #1 overall pick. He fell to #11 and played some in the short-season A ball league. He had a major knee injury and has just recently began to play in 2017, playing two games in High A. (16) Matt Thaiss - Los Angeles Angels - The first baseman from Virginia began his career last year in rookie ball before playing 52 games in Low A. He began 2017 in High A before being promoted to AA about a couple of weeks ago (22) Will Craig - Pittsburgh Pirates - The third baseman from Wake Forest spent his entire 2016 pro season in the NYPL. This season, he jumped straight to High-A, where he remains. (32) Will Smith - Los Angeles Dodgers - The catcher from Louisville spent about two weeks in rookie ball, 23 games in Low A and 25 games in High A in 2016. He began 2017 in High A with 72 more games in High A. He was promoted to AA about a week ago. He played one game before landing on the DL. (39) Anfernee Grier - Arizona Diamondbacks - After signing last year out of Auburn, Grier split his 2016 between two levels of the rookie leagues. He has spent the 2017 season in Low A ball. 2016 SUMMARY There were eight college hitters selected in the first round of the 2016 draft. Here is where they ended their 2016 season (First pro season): Short-season A - 2 Low A - 3 High A - 3 Here is where those eight players are right now: Low A - 1 High A - 4 AA - 3 (the three players have a combined 33 games in AA) OVERALL SUMMARY Brent Rooker was the Triple Crown winner in the SEC this year at Mississippi State. He is the first to do that since Rafael Palmiero. In other words, he should be considered an advanced hitting prospect. Hence, he was selected with the 35th overall pick a year after the Twins made him the 38th round pick. I understand that Rooker is 22, and he will turn 23 in November. While many want to push him to the big leagues in 2018 or early in 2019, I’m not even a little bit concerned about that. I want him to come up when he is ready to come up and contribute, whether that is in June of 2018 or July of 2020. The reality is that the Twins can get 6+ seasons out of a player before free agency hits. I don’t care whether those are their age 21 through 28 seasons or 25 through 32 seasons. Brian Dozier was a four-year guy. He debuted within two years of being drafted. Mitch Garver was a four-year guy. As a catcher, he’s taken a little longer to develop behind the plate. So, he’s 26, but when he comes up (hopefully soon), he will be ready to go. Trevor Hildenberger was a five-year college guy. His first pro season was spent only in the GCL. Does that matter now? We need to get rid of the stigma placed upon these guys that they are older than their level, even if it is factual. It just isn’t all that important. At the same time, I do think it is important to do a little research like this. I didn’t know what it would tell me. However, when honestly comparing where Rooker is relative to his draft class (2017) or his age class (2016 college draft picks as juniors), the Twins are certainly pushing him with this promotion to Ft. Myers. ---------------------------------------------------- BONUS CONTENT Looking at this, I was curious where some of the other college hitters that the Twins drafted and signed in recent years are now. Here’s a very quick look. 2016: (7) Matt Albanese - Bryant College (RI) - Elizabethton (debuting this season due to wrist injuries) (9) Mitchell Kranson - California - Ft. Myers (10) Brandon Lopez - Miami - Ft. Myers (14) Andre Jernigan - Xavier - Cedar Rapids (22) Hank Morrison - Mercyhurst (PA) - Cedar Rapids (23) Caleb Hamilton - Oregon State - Cedar Rapids (29) Dane Hutcheon - Montevallo (AL) - Elizabethton (down from Ft. Myers for Rooker) (31) Juan Gamez - NDSU - Elizabethton (drafted as catcher, transitioned to pitching) (34) Joe Cronin - Boston College - Cedar Rapids (39) Casey Scoggins - Tampa - Release (after spending time in Ft. Myers early this year) From 2015, Chris Paul (6), Sean Miller (10), Zander Wiel (12), and Jaylin Davis (24) are with the Miracle. LaMonte Wade (9) and Alex Perez (23) are with the Lookouts. Five other college hitter picks have been released. I show this only to show how difficult the path is to the big leagues, even for college hitters. Even for college hitters from big-time colleges in big-time conferences. Baseball is Good, but Baseball is Hard! Click here to view the article
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So, I went to Baseball-Reference (I know, obviously) and researched which college hitters were drafted ahead of Brent Rooker in the 2017 draft. I was curious to see where other teams had started those players and where they are now, if different. Secondly, because Rooker is a four-year college guy (the Twins actually drafted him in 2016 in the 38th round), I thought it would make sense to look at the college hitters drafted in the first round in 2016 as well. For them, I was curious where they got to by the end of 2016 as well as where they are right now, midway through the 2017 season. I’m willing to admit when I’m wrong, but I did have a couple of assumptions in my mind before doing the research. I assumed that none of the other college hitters drafted in 2017 have reached High-A yet. I did expect that a couple of the very high draft picks would be at Low A by now. I assumed that most of the college hitters drafted in 2016’s first round were at least at High-A, unless there was an injury at play or something. The College Hitters Drafted in 2017 ahead of Brent Rooker (4) Brendan McKay - Tampa Bay Rays - There were rumors that the Twins were interested in the two-way player from Louisville. To this point, McKay has played in just two games in the New York-Penn League (NYPL) which is a short-season A league. The Twins don’t have a short-season A club, but the level is between Advanced Rookie Leagues like the Appalachian League and Low-A Leagues like the Midwest League. McKay is 0-8 with 4 strikeouts, but I think that would be considered Small Sample Size. (7) Pavin Smith - Virginia - Arizona Diamondbacks - Smith has played in 20 games for the DBacks affiliate in the Northwest League. Like the NYPL, the Northwest League is a short-season A league. (8) Adam Haseley - Virginia - Philadelphia Phillies - Smith’s teammate began his pro career with three games in the GCL before moving up to the NYPL where he’s played in 14 games. (9) Keston Hiura - Milwaukee Brewers - Hiura, who was drafted out of UC-Irvine, has played in 15 games for the Brewers affiliate in the Arizona League which is similar to the Gulf Coast League (the lower short-season league), though he is hitting .435 (1.339 OPS). (11) Jake Burger - Chicago White Sox - Burger was drafted out of Missouri State. He played in four games in the Arizona League before moving up to the White Sox Low A affiliate in the South Atlantic League (Low A). (17) Evan White - Seattle Mariners - The first baseman was drafted out of Kentucky. The Mariners have had him play 14 games so far in the Northwest League (short-season A). (22) Logan Warmoth - Toronto Blue Jays - The middle infielder selected out of North Carolina began his career with five games in the GCL. He moved up to the Northwest League (short-season). (23) Jaren Kendall - Los Angeles Dodgers - The Wisconsin kid was drafted out of Vanderbilt. He signed on the final signing day, so he is yet to play in a game. (33) Kevin Merrell - Oakland A’s - Drafted out of South Florida, the A’s placed Merrell in the NYPL to start his career. SUMMARY Of nine college hitters drafted before Brent Rooker at the 35th pick, here is the quick breakdown of where they are playing right now: Low Rookie - 1 Advanced Rookie - 3 Short-season A - 3 Low A - 1 Rooker played 22 games for Elizabethton (Advanced Rookie) before playing in his first Ft. Myers Miracle (High-A) game on Tuesday night. While he is the first to play in High-A from this group, it doesn’t mean he’ll be the last. In fact, it’s likely he won’t be. He shouldn’t be as the 35th overall pick, not when there are five college hitters who were taken in the first 11 picks. And, of course, on an even bigger level, we won’t really know the value of any of these picks for another half-dozen years, at least. The College Hitters Drafted In 2016s First Round (2) Nick Senzel - Cincinnati Reds - The second overall pick in the draft out of Tennessee, Senzel reached the Midwest League last season. He began this year in the Florida State League, but he was promoted to AA where he has now played 23 games. (5) Corey Ray - Milwaukee Brewers - Drafted out of Louisville, Ray started his career with three games in Low A before being pushed to High A where he played 57 games to end the season. That is where he remains to this point in the 2017 season as well. The only difference is that the Brewers High-A affiliate is now in the Carolina League. (10) Zack Collins - Chicago White Sox - Collins was playing in the Florida State League shortly after playing in the College World Series. That is where he remains to this point in the 2017 season. (11) Kyle Lewis - Seattle Mariners - Lewis was believed by some to be a possibility as the #1 overall pick. He fell to #11 and played some in the short-season A ball league. He had a major knee injury and has just recently began to play in 2017, playing two games in High A. (16) Matt Thaiss - Los Angeles Angels - The first baseman from Virginia began his career last year in rookie ball before playing 52 games in Low A. He began 2017 in High A before being promoted to AA about a couple of weeks ago (22) Will Craig - Pittsburgh Pirates - The third baseman from Wake Forest spent his entire 2016 pro season in the NYPL. This season, he jumped straight to High-A, where he remains. (32) Will Smith - Los Angeles Dodgers - The catcher from Louisville spent about two weeks in rookie ball, 23 games in Low A and 25 games in High A in 2016. He began 2017 in High A with 72 more games in High A. He was promoted to AA about a week ago. He played one game before landing on the DL. (39) Anfernee Grier - Arizona Diamondbacks - After signing last year out of Auburn, Grier split his 2016 between two levels of the rookie leagues. He has spent the 2017 season in Low A ball. 2016 SUMMARY There were eight college hitters selected in the first round of the 2016 draft. Here is where they ended their 2016 season (First pro season): Short-season A - 2 Low A - 3 High A - 3 Here is where those eight players are right now: Low A - 1 High A - 4 AA - 3 (the three players have a combined 33 games in AA) OVERALL SUMMARY Brent Rooker was the Triple Crown winner in the SEC this year at Mississippi State. He is the first to do that since Rafael Palmiero. In other words, he should be considered an advanced hitting prospect. Hence, he was selected with the 35th overall pick a year after the Twins made him the 38th round pick. I understand that Rooker is 22, and he will turn 23 in November. While many want to push him to the big leagues in 2018 or early in 2019, I’m not even a little bit concerned about that. I want him to come up when he is ready to come up and contribute, whether that is in June of 2018 or July of 2020. The reality is that the Twins can get 6+ seasons out of a player before free agency hits. I don’t care whether those are their age 21 through 28 seasons or 25 through 32 seasons. Brian Dozier was a four-year guy. He debuted within two years of being drafted. Mitch Garver was a four-year guy. As a catcher, he’s taken a little longer to develop behind the plate. So, he’s 26, but when he comes up (hopefully soon), he will be ready to go. Trevor Hildenberger was a five-year college guy. His first pro season was spent only in the GCL. Does that matter now? We need to get rid of the stigma placed upon these guys that they are older than their level, even if it is factual. It just isn’t all that important. At the same time, I do think it is important to do a little research like this. I didn’t know what it would tell me. However, when honestly comparing where Rooker is relative to his draft class (2017) or his age class (2016 college draft picks as juniors), the Twins are certainly pushing him with this promotion to Ft. Myers. ---------------------------------------------------- BONUS CONTENT Looking at this, I was curious where some of the other college hitters that the Twins drafted and signed in recent years are now. Here’s a very quick look. 2016: (7) Matt Albanese - Bryant College (RI) - Elizabethton (debuting this season due to wrist injuries) (9) Mitchell Kranson - California - Ft. Myers (10) Brandon Lopez - Miami - Ft. Myers (14) Andre Jernigan - Xavier - Cedar Rapids (22) Hank Morrison - Mercyhurst (PA) - Cedar Rapids (23) Caleb Hamilton - Oregon State - Cedar Rapids (29) Dane Hutcheon - Montevallo (AL) - Elizabethton (down from Ft. Myers for Rooker) (31) Juan Gamez - NDSU - Elizabethton (drafted as catcher, transitioned to pitching) (34) Joe Cronin - Boston College - Cedar Rapids (39) Casey Scoggins - Tampa - Release (after spending time in Ft. Myers early this year) From 2015, Chris Paul (6), Sean Miller (10), Zander Wiel (12), and Jaylin Davis (24) are with the Miracle. LaMonte Wade (9) and Alex Perez (23) are with the Lookouts. Five other college hitter picks have been released. I show this only to show how difficult the path is to the big leagues, even for college hitters. Even for college hitters from big-time colleges in big-time conferences. Baseball is Good, but Baseball is Hard!
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- brent rooker
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With Bartolo Colon taking the mound for the Twins, for good or bad, there probably wasn’t much attention being paid to the minor leagues by the average fan on Tuesday night. In addition to that, with two teams taking days off and another game being suspended due to lightning in the GCL (second game of doubleheader), there were only four games in minors on the day but still plenty of action. In those games Rochester’s starter racked up double-digit K’s for the fourth time on the season, the Gulf Coast squad scored a bunch of runs, and a high draft pick from 2017 made his anticipated move to the Florida State League.To find out everything that went on in the minors on Tuesday, keep reading! TRANSACTIONS Some moves were made official today after being reported last night. To make room for Bartolo Colon on the rosters to make the start for the Twins, they placed Phil Hughes on the 60-day DL as his issues with thoracic outlet syndrome remain. They also optioned Kennys Vargas to AAA so they could activate Craig Breslow from his rehab assignment. In more notable news given this is the MiLB report, Brent Rooker was promoted to the Fort Myers Miracle from Elizabethton as promised and he started in tonight’s game. Infielder Dane Hutcheon was sent to Elizabethton to clear the roster spot. Also in Elizabethton, right-handed pitcher and 2017 10th round draft pick, Calvin Faucher was placed on the disabled list. RED WINGS REPORT Charlotte 1, Rochester 3 Box Score Nik Turley took to the hill for the Red Wings in game two of a three-game series that was made into a four-game one with yesterday’s double-header and he was again brilliant. In 6.2 innings, Turley allowed one run on four hits and two walks. He struck out ten including at least one in each inning. His only run allowed came on a solo home run in the fourth. He got two outs in the seventh thanks in part to picking a runner off before a single brought D.J. Baxendale in after 86 pitches. Turley left in line for the win as the Red Wings finally got on the scoreboard in the bottom of the sixth inning. Mitch Garver led off the inning with a walk, and advanced to third on a double from Tommy Field. Garver scored on a ground out from Matt Hague before a Niko Goodrum triple plated the go-ahead run. The offense added an insurance run in the eighth after Garver led off that inning with a double, and scored on a sacrifice fly off the bat of Byungho Park. Baxendale remained in the game to start the eighth inning and hit a batter, but got a ground out before being lifted for Alex Wimmers who finished the inning. With the score 3-1, John Curtiss came on for the ninth and struck out the first three hitters he faced, but the final K came on a wild pitch that put the runner on first. He got a fly out to end the game and pick up his second save with the Red Wings. In case you hadn’t noticed, the Red Wings have been on fire over the last month plus: They are in third in the International League North Division with a 54-41 record, 5.5 games back of the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders and four games back in the wild card standings. CHATTANOOGA CHATTER Scheduled Day Off The Lookouts got a day off on Tuesday after going twenty days without one. In the twenty games they played over that stretch they went 15-5 including eight straight wins to start it. In the second half of the Southern League season they lead the North Division by four games over the Tennessee Smokies with a 19-6 record after winning the first half title. They are back in action on Wednesday night on the road against the Mobile BayBears. MIRACLE MATTERS Fort Myers 1, Bradenton 3 Box Score The Miracle offense was unable to solve Marauders starter Brad Helton, as they scored just one run on four hits in his seven innings. They tied the game at one in the top of the fourth with three singles, but a double-play ball ended that threat and the rest of their offense for the night. Sean Miller had two hits out of the leadoff spot and Zander Wiel drew a walk and clubbed his 22nd double for the only notable performances. After his promotion was made official earlier in the day, Brent Rooker was 0-4 in his Florida State League debut batting in the sixth spot and playing left field. Right-hander Brady Anderson made the start for Fort Myers and went the first five innings. He allowed three runs (one earned) on six hits while striking out three. The two unearned runs came in the fifth inning after two errors from his infield defense. Alex Muren came on for the sixth and pitched two scoreless innings, allowing one hit and striking out one. Sam Clay finished the game for the Miracle with a one-two-three ninth inning. He also struck out one. The offense for the Miracle was just 1-5 with runners in scoring position and left five men on base for the game. KERNELS NUGGETS Scheduled Day Off Cedar Rapids also had the day off on Tuesday after a six-game road trip on which they went just 1-5. They return to Veterans Memorial Stadium on Wednesday for a six-game home stand versus the Great Lakes Loons and Lansing Lugnuts. With an 11-14 record in the second half the Kernels are six games back of the division- leading Quad Cities River Bandits. In the series opener against the Loons tomorrow night left-hander Domenick Carlini will take the mound looking for his fourth win of the season. E-TWINS E-NOTES Bristol 9, Elizabethton 5 Box Score It was a busy first inning in Elizabethton as the Pirates jumped on Twins starter Moises Gomez for two runs in the top half of the frame with three doubles. But the Twins took the lead right back in the bottom half thanks in part to a pair of Bristol errors. Shane Carrier brought in the first two runs with a single, and they went ahead 3-2 on an errant throw on a steal attempt. Gomez was wild in the second inning but managed to keep the Pirates off the board and also pitched a clean third, but an error and fielder’s choice ground ball that did not produce an out preceded another double that made the score 4-3 Bristol after four innings. Gomez' overall line included 4.0 innings pitched with four runs (two earned) on five hits and two walks. He struck out four. Ryley Widell came on for the fifth inning and pitched 2.1 scoreless frames. He allowed just one hit and struck out three before being removed after getting the leadoff man in the seventh inning. Blair Lakso got the final two outs to keep Elizabethton within one after seven, but ran into a heap of trouble in the eighth thanks in part to his own throwing error that led to a three-run home run. Juan Gamez got the final two outs of the inning on a double play ball but also gave up a run on three singles in the ninth. Elizabethton got multiple hit efforts from Wander Javier (2-5, 2 R’s) and Jose Miranda (2-5, R), but their ten hits as a team were all singles. GCL TWINS TAKES Game 1: GCL Rays 5, GCL Twins 11 Box Score The Twins were able to get in their game that was suspended due to lightning yesterday, with play resuming in top of the first inning. It was Jordan Balazovic on the mound when it started with one out and a runner on first base. He loaded the bases before getting an out on a sacrifice fly to put the Rays out front 1-0, but settled in for the next three innings. In the bottom of the first Royce Lewis drew a walk and advanced to third on an errant pickoff attempt before being driven in by a single from Benjamin Rodriguez. An error put two runners on and Brian Olson brought them both in with a double to make the score 3-1 in favor of the Twins. It remained that way until the fifth inning. Balazovic got the first batter he faced, but a home run, walk, and RBI double from the next three hitters ended his day with the game tied 3-3. Overall he pitched four innings, allowing two runs on three hits and two walks, while striking out four. Matt Jones came on from the bullpen and got out of the inning with no further damage. The Twins got both those runs back and more in the bottom half of the frame thanks to a couple of walks, an RBI single from Olson, an RBI groundout from Jean Carlos Arias, and a two RBI double courtesy of Roni Tapia. The offense added another run in the sixth thanks to a throwing error on a double steal, and three more in the seventh thanks to a two-run homer from Tapia that was followed with a back-to-back shot by Ricky De La Torre. Both home runs were their first of the GCL season, and career in De La Torre’s case. Jones finished 3.2 scoreless innings to keep the Twins well out front. He walked two and struck out one. Matz Shutte came on for the ninth and walked a couple of batters before giving up a two-run double for the final score of 11-5. He struck out one and got a double-play ground ball to end the game. The Twins scored those 11 runs on 12 hits and four walks, led by the bottom four hitters in the lineup (Olson, Arias, Tapia, De La Torre) who all had multiple hits and combined to go 9-19 with two doubles, two home runs and nine RBI. Lewis was 1-4 with a run scored and a walk, and in the small sample of his career thus far, has just as many walks as K’s. Game 2: GCL Twins 1, GCL Rays 0 (suspended in 2nd inning due to lighting) Box Score Unfortunately for the Twins, their regularly scheduled game of the day suffered the same fate as Monday night, as this one was also suspended due to lightning in the top of the second inning. Before that happened, the Twins had taken the lead 1-0 after a Kerby Camacho double to drive in Alex Robles. Carlos Suniaga pitched a one-two-three inning for the Twins, and the game will be completed tomorrow as the Rays remain in town for a four-game series. TWINS DAILY PLAYERS OF THE DAY Pitcher of the Day – Nik Turley, Rochester Red Wings (W, 6.2IP, 1 ER, 4 H’s, 2 BB’s, 10 K’s) Hitter of the Day – Roni Tapia, GCL Twins (2-5, R, 2B, HR, 4 RBI) WEDNESDAY’S PROBABLE STARTERS Charlotte @ Rochester (6:05PM CST) – RHP Justin Haley (1-0, 2.08 ERA – 4th rehab start) Chattanooga @ Mobile (6:35PM CST) - TBD Fort Myers @ Bradenton (9:30AM CST) – TBD Great Lakes @ Cedar Rapids (6:35PM CST) – LHP Domenick Carlini (3-7, 5.33 ERA) Bristol @ Elizabethton (6:00PM CST) – RHP Melvi Acosta (2-1, 6.20 ERA) GCL Rays @ GCL Twins (11:00AM CST) – TBD GCL Twins @ GCL Rays (completion of 7/18 suspended game) Please feel free to ask questions and discuss Tuesday’s games! Click here to view the article
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- nik turley
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I'm not sure on Enlow. Obviously they don't want him pitching much this year. I'm not sure, but can check, on him and Widell. Leach just got to Ft. Myers last Tuesday. After signing, they had to wait a couple of weeks to get his visa. As soon as he got that, he was on his way.
- 22 replies
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- aaron slegers
- huascar ynoa
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He's definitely got the ability to be a back-of-rotation starter in MLB. He's been up and down, but the ups make it seem to me that he's got a chance. He may be in that category of not wanting to burn an option... but in my mind, he's old enough that if he needs to use options in 2018, 2019 and 2020, it's probably not a huge deal by the end.
- 22 replies
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- aaron slegers
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Absolutely a prospect. I think I had him at 21-23 or something like that midseason. Considering he's been playing baseball less than three years, he's definitely one to watch! He's got all the tools. He's 6-4, 200 pounds, very strong, very fast. Terrific range in CF and the instincts are getting better too.
- 22 replies
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- aaron slegers
- huascar ynoa
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My opinions... Escobar is a utility guy. He's on a hot streak now, so they need to (and have) found more way to get him in the lineup. Polanco needed to get a double day off. That strategy has worked in the big leagues and in the minor leagues in recent years. Doesn't mean that Polanco will suddenly start hitting like crazy, but hopefully will slow him down. Mejia shouldn't be a big surprise. I mean, he was a Top 100 prospect a year ago at this time and has been a borderline Top 100 guy in the past. He's not a 1 or 2, but he looks like the kind of guy that could be solid for years. He's 23 or 24. I thought Molitor pulled him a bit earl last night, but getting more of those tough situations later in games is earned. I don't have a major problem with taking him out then. I do think he can be an innings-eater type too. Duffey's definitely struggled for the last several weeks. He's got good-enough two-pitch mix. He'll probably be just fine. Rosario's on a nice, extended hot streak...
- 26 replies
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- eduardo escobar
- adalberto mejia
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On Tuesday night, Bartolo Colon will take the mound at Target Field for his first start in a large Minnesota Twins uniform. If you’re like me, one of the first things that you thought about when you heard that the Twins signed the 44-year-old right-hander last week was the 2005 American League Cy Young Award. As you recall, Colon won that award because he went 21-8 for the Angels. He was the only 20-game winner in the league that year. As Twins fans, we thought that Johan Santana was robbed. Yes, Moneyball had already been out for a few years, so we knew that there was much more to illustrating how well a pitcher throws than the almighty pitcher Win.With Colon joining the Twins and making a start tonight, I thought it would be fun to take a look back at that 2005 American League Cy Young vote through the lens of what we now know. Was Johan still robbed? Of course he was robbed, we’re Twins fans. He absolutely deserved to win it. Santana won the AL Cy Young Award in 2004, and then he again won it in 2006. However, we’ll still contend that he should have won three in a row. The Vote I always find it interesting that we think that Johan Santana was robbed. However, we forget that Santana didn’t even finish runner-up in the 2005 American League Cy Young voting. Yankees closer Mariano Rivera finished second in the vote. Bartolo Colon actually won the vote quite handily. He accumulated 118 points. Mariano Rivera had 68 points, and Johan Santana had 51 points. Colon received 17 of a possible 28 first-place votes. Rivera got eight first-place votes with Santana tallying the other three. The Numbers Let’s start with the obvious, the statistics. First and foremost, it is important to acknowledge that all three of these pitchers had tremendous 2005 seasons. I don’t think anyone would or should say anything differently. At the same time, it’s impossible to look at the numbers and not think that Santana was the obvious choice. Here are some key statistics for your consideration: W-L Record: Colon 21-8; Santana 16-7, Rivera 7-4 (with 43 saves)Innings Pitched: Santana 231.2, Colon 222.2, Rivera 78.1ERA: Rivera 1.38, Santana 2.87, Colon 3.48WHIP: Rivera 0.87, Santana 0.97, Colon 1.16.FIP: Rivera 2.15, Santana 2.80, Colon 3.75K/9: Santana 9.2, Rivera 9.2, Colon 6.3BB/9: Santana 1.7, Colon 1.7, Rivera 2.1bWAR: Santana 7.2, Colon 4.0, Rivera 4.0.fWAR: Santana 7.1, Colon 4.1, Rivera 2.9WPA: Santana 4.16, Rivera 3.15, Colon 2.77So what does this tell us? Well, that depends on how much you value a closer. Rivera was totally dominant, as he was for most of his Hall of Fame career. But he threw just 78.1 innings compared to over 220 innings for Colon and Santana. But Rivera was the one that most nationally (and particularly in New York) thought was snubbed. In fact, when asked, Colon thought Rivera had a good chance to win. “"Mariano had a great year," Colon said, thanking Rivera for teaching him how to throw his cut fastball. "I did think about the fact that maybe he was going to come away and be the winner."” However, if you were to compare just the starting pitchers, there really is no comparison. The only area where Colon had a better number was the wins category. We don’t need to go through the whole discussion about how meaningless that number is. Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) had Santana clearly better. Why? Because Santana struck out 50% more batters than Colon. You can make an argument about a strikeout pitcher needing more pitches. In an ESPN article back then, “If I can get an out with one or two pitches and use my sinker or my cutter, I'm better off," Colon said through a translator. "I stopped being a village boy, thinking that I can throw any stone, any rock through a wall, and started thinking about being a guy that could last longer, to take some off my fastball and not to depend only on throwing hard.” Well, that may be fine, but in the same number of starts, Santana threw more innings. He gave up fewer runs, walked the same low number, and Santana had a WHIP under 1.00, which is crazy good for a starter. So whether you look at the more traditional stats like ERA and WHIP and K/9, Santana was clearly better. If you look at the more advanced stats like FIP, WAR (wins above replacement) or even WPA (win probability added). If wins are your stat of choice for a pitcher, well, then Colon was the rightful winner. In a New York Times article discussing the 2005 vote, Akron Beacon writer Sheldon Ocker acknowledged that he put Rivera and other relievers into the MVP candidates more than the Cy Young because they are used more often but for a lot less innings. His comment regarding why his ballot went 1.) Bartolo Colon, 2.) Cliff Lee, 3.) Mark Buehrle illustrates the thinking of the writers who voted for these awards just a dozen years ago. “It's just a whole different animal from starting pitchers," he added. "If the best starting pitcher in the league only won 15 games and Mariano Rivera or someone else saved 45, I'd vote for Rivera. But in a season with a 20-game winner and an 18-game winner, I felt the starters should get my vote.” Wins. Wins… That’s a pretty direct indictment on how Bartolo Colon won that award over Johan Santana. How Egregious? While obviously Twins fans are a bit biased, it’s fun to check out a couple of national sites and blogs and get some other opinions. Bleacher Report posted an article in which they determined the 10 most undeserving Cy Young Award winners. Bartolo Colon came in at #6. “The more deserving candidate was Johan Santana, who went 16-7, with an ERA of 2.87 and led the league in WAR and ERA-plus with a 6.3 and a 155 respectively. Santana also struck out the most batters by a wide margin and had a ridiculous .97 WHIP.” Seamheads posted and article called the Most Egregious Cy Young Snubs. Colon/Santana was only mentioned in saying that if they had listed 11 instead of 10, they would have made the list. So while most thought that Santana should have won it, statistics tell us that the voters got it wrong on several occasions. Stark Summary Shortly after Colon was awarded the 2005 AL Cy Young, ESPN’s Jayson Stark wrote an article highlighting why Santana, not Colon, deserved to win the award. Here are a few excerpts from the article: Colon finished strong, going 10-2 in his last 14 starts “for a team that needed every one of his wins to hold off Oakland.”Colon was helped out by his bullpen which blew zero saves for him.Indians hitters averaged 6.02 runs per game when Colon started.“Santana piled up 81 more strikeouts, beat Colon in ERA by 61 points, allowed almost two fewer base runners for every nine innings, and had more innings pitched, complete games and shutouts.”“Hitters who faced Colon had a batting average of .254 against him. The on-base percentage against Santana was .250.”“Colon got a ridiculous 1.32 more runs per game than Santana did. And Santana’s totals in his last three no-decisions tell it all: 23 innings, 9 hits, 3 runs, 0 wins.”“But the history of the award tells us that no starting pitcher has won just 16 games over a full season and won a Cy Young.”Of course, that has changed some since 2005. In 2009, Zack Greinke (16) and Tim Lincecum (15) were the two Cy Young winners. In 2010, Felix Hernandez won the AL award with a 13-12 record. In 2013, Clayton Kershaw won the NL Cy Young with 16 wins. So while there are more ways to determine and vote for Best Pitcher, it will continue to be dependent upon the 15 BBWAA writers from each league that cast their vote. I don’t think anyone is going to expect Bartolo Colon to come to Target Field today and hand over that 2005 Cy Young Award. And frankly, there’s no reason to bring it up. Instead, let’s cheer on Colon and hope beyond hope that he can be a solid contributor to the Twins for the rest of the season. Or, he’ll be so bad that Derek Falvey and Thad Levine will have an easy decision to let him go in the next few weeks. If nothing else, it’ll be fun to watch the oldest pitcher to make a start for the Twins in their 57 seasons in Minnesota. Click here to view the article
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- johan santana
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With Colon joining the Twins and making a start tonight, I thought it would be fun to take a look back at that 2005 American League Cy Young vote through the lens of what we now know. Was Johan still robbed? Of course he was robbed, we’re Twins fans. He absolutely deserved to win it. Santana won the AL Cy Young Award in 2004, and then he again won it in 2006. However, we’ll still contend that he should have won three in a row. The Vote I always find it interesting that we think that Johan Santana was robbed. However, we forget that Santana didn’t even finish runner-up in the 2005 American League Cy Young voting. Yankees closer Mariano Rivera finished second in the vote. Bartolo Colon actually won the vote quite handily. He accumulated 118 points. Mariano Rivera had 68 points, and Johan Santana had 51 points. Colon received 17 of a possible 28 first-place votes. Rivera got eight first-place votes with Santana tallying the other three. The Numbers Let’s start with the obvious, the statistics. First and foremost, it is important to acknowledge that all three of these pitchers had tremendous 2005 seasons. I don’t think anyone would or should say anything differently. At the same time, it’s impossible to look at the numbers and not think that Santana was the obvious choice. Here are some key statistics for your consideration: W-L Record: Colon 21-8; Santana 16-7, Rivera 7-4 (with 43 saves) Innings Pitched: Santana 231.2, Colon 222.2, Rivera 78.1 ERA: Rivera 1.38, Santana 2.87, Colon 3.48 WHIP: Rivera 0.87, Santana 0.97, Colon 1.16. FIP: Rivera 2.15, Santana 2.80, Colon 3.75 K/9: Santana 9.2, Rivera 9.2, Colon 6.3 BB/9: Santana 1.7, Colon 1.7, Rivera 2.1 bWAR: Santana 7.2, Colon 4.0, Rivera 4.0. fWAR: Santana 7.1, Colon 4.1, Rivera 2.9 WPA: Santana 4.16, Rivera 3.15, Colon 2.77 So what does this tell us? Well, that depends on how much you value a closer. Rivera was totally dominant, as he was for most of his Hall of Fame career. But he threw just 78.1 innings compared to over 220 innings for Colon and Santana. But Rivera was the one that most nationally (and particularly in New York) thought was snubbed. In fact, when asked, Colon thought Rivera had a good chance to win. “"Mariano had a great year," Colon said, thanking Rivera for teaching him how to throw his cut fastball. "I did think about the fact that maybe he was going to come away and be the winner."” However, if you were to compare just the starting pitchers, there really is no comparison. The only area where Colon had a better number was the wins category. We don’t need to go through the whole discussion about how meaningless that number is. Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) had Santana clearly better. Why? Because Santana struck out 50% more batters than Colon. You can make an argument about a strikeout pitcher needing more pitches. In an ESPN article back then, “If I can get an out with one or two pitches and use my sinker or my cutter, I'm better off," Colon said through a translator. "I stopped being a village boy, thinking that I can throw any stone, any rock through a wall, and started thinking about being a guy that could last longer, to take some off my fastball and not to depend only on throwing hard.” Well, that may be fine, but in the same number of starts, Santana threw more innings. He gave up fewer runs, walked the same low number, and Santana had a WHIP under 1.00, which is crazy good for a starter. So whether you look at the more traditional stats like ERA and WHIP and K/9, Santana was clearly better. If you look at the more advanced stats like FIP, WAR (wins above replacement) or even WPA (win probability added). If wins are your stat of choice for a pitcher, well, then Colon was the rightful winner. In a New York Times article discussing the 2005 vote, Akron Beacon writer Sheldon Ocker acknowledged that he put Rivera and other relievers into the MVP candidates more than the Cy Young because they are used more often but for a lot less innings. His comment regarding why his ballot went 1.) Bartolo Colon, 2.) Cliff Lee, 3.) Mark Buehrle illustrates the thinking of the writers who voted for these awards just a dozen years ago. “It's just a whole different animal from starting pitchers," he added. "If the best starting pitcher in the league only won 15 games and Mariano Rivera or someone else saved 45, I'd vote for Rivera. But in a season with a 20-game winner and an 18-game winner, I felt the starters should get my vote.” Wins. Wins… That’s a pretty direct indictment on how Bartolo Colon won that award over Johan Santana. How Egregious? While obviously Twins fans are a bit biased, it’s fun to check out a couple of national sites and blogs and get some other opinions. Bleacher Report posted an article in which they determined the 10 most undeserving Cy Young Award winners. Bartolo Colon came in at #6. “The more deserving candidate was Johan Santana, who went 16-7, with an ERA of 2.87 and led the league in WAR and ERA-plus with a 6.3 and a 155 respectively. Santana also struck out the most batters by a wide margin and had a ridiculous .97 WHIP.” Seamheads posted and article called the Most Egregious Cy Young Snubs. Colon/Santana was only mentioned in saying that if they had listed 11 instead of 10, they would have made the list. So while most thought that Santana should have won it, statistics tell us that the voters got it wrong on several occasions. Stark Summary Shortly after Colon was awarded the 2005 AL Cy Young, ESPN’s Jayson Stark wrote an article highlighting why Santana, not Colon, deserved to win the award. Here are a few excerpts from the article: Colon finished strong, going 10-2 in his last 14 starts “for a team that needed every one of his wins to hold off Oakland.” Colon was helped out by his bullpen which blew zero saves for him. Indians hitters averaged 6.02 runs per game when Colon started. “Santana piled up 81 more strikeouts, beat Colon in ERA by 61 points, allowed almost two fewer base runners for every nine innings, and had more innings pitched, complete games and shutouts.” “Hitters who faced Colon had a batting average of .254 against him. The on-base percentage against Santana was .250.” “Colon got a ridiculous 1.32 more runs per game than Santana did. And Santana’s totals in his last three no-decisions tell it all: 23 innings, 9 hits, 3 runs, 0 wins.” “But the history of the award tells us that no starting pitcher has won just 16 games over a full season and won a Cy Young.” Of course, that has changed some since 2005. In 2009, Zack Greinke (16) and Tim Lincecum (15) were the two Cy Young winners. In 2010, Felix Hernandez won the AL award with a 13-12 record. In 2013, Clayton Kershaw won the NL Cy Young with 16 wins. So while there are more ways to determine and vote for Best Pitcher, it will continue to be dependent upon the 15 BBWAA writers from each league that cast their vote. I don’t think anyone is going to expect Bartolo Colon to come to Target Field today and hand over that 2005 Cy Young Award. And frankly, there’s no reason to bring it up. Instead, let’s cheer on Colon and hope beyond hope that he can be a solid contributor to the Twins for the rest of the season. Or, he’ll be so bad that Derek Falvey and Thad Levine will have an easy decision to let him go in the next few weeks. If nothing else, it’ll be fun to watch the oldest pitcher to make a start for the Twins in their 57 seasons in Minnesota.
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