Seth Stohs

If it was me running the Tigers or Orioles... absolutely I would. In fact, I might just play him a bunch... I believe in his talent, so absolutely...

First of all, I want to take this time and space to say Thank You to the Twins Daily community. From the owners/founders, to Tom Froemming for all he does, to each of our writers, to the moderators, to those who are active in the blogs and forums, to those of you who just like to come here for the articles. It's been a special year at Twins Daily and I would like to thank all of you. With that, I'd like to do another Ask Seth article. I noticed that I haven't done one since April, so it's about time. Over the next 24-36 hours, I will answer the questions that show up in the Comments below in this article. So feel free to Ask Away.Leave a question or two in the comments below and I will answer them in the article itself. Ask me about the Twins, the offseason, minor leaguers, Rule 5, or whatever you want, within reason. I'll answer them first-come, first-serve. (and obviously, within reason and rules and such.) Let's get the Questions started... From ChiefsKid: What's a realistic expectation of opening day 2020 payroll? Seth: I think putting the expectation at $130 million is more than fair... I also think it's a fairly good over-under as Twins Geek wrote a couple of weeks ago. If you subscribe to the payroll being 48-50% of revenues number that the Players Union has encouraged, they should probably be closer to $140-145 million. From mikelink: My request for you is a rating question:Please give me a top ten prospect list for potential 2020 positions on the 26 man squad, considering the normal number of injuries. Seth: That's a tough question... but I'll try... 1.) Alex Kirilloff 2.) Brusdar Graterol 3.) Jhoan Duran 4.) Brent Rooker 5.) Edwar Colina 6.) Travis Blankenhorn 7.) Lewis Thorpe 8.) Nick Gordon 9.) Devin Smeltzer 10.) Jorge Alcala Those are guys I think could be called up in 2019, ranked by how they are currently in my prospect rankings... But if anyone wants to say that we will see Royce Lewis, I won't argue with you. Same with Trevor Larnach. Next on my list would have been Sean Poppen who I had one place below Alcala. From beckmt: Do you see the twins signing one of the top 6 FA pitchers? Do you see C.J. Cron coming back? Seth: Yes, I see the Twins signing one of the big 5 (not sure who the #6 might be). No, I don't expect them to sign Cole or Strasburg, but I think Wheeler and Bumgarner are definitely in play. I think they'll get one of them. And, I don't think they'll bring Cron back, at least not by tendering him an arbitration deal. Had he been healthy all year, it would have been an easy decision. Now, I'm not so sure. Personally, I probably would bring him back, now that he's had the thumb surgery because he was really good until the initial June injury. He's good, and even if he's not great, he could spend the second half as a platoon guy with Kirilloff. From MN_ExPat: Happy Thanksgiving Seth. Ok, of the remaining FA pitchers, who do you think/believe will ultimately sign and help bring our boys to the promised land? Also, who is your favorite Dark Horse rookie/prospect to this year's Arraez? Seth: Well, first, I think the Twins could sign Cole or Strasburg and it wouldn't guarantee them anything... I personally am starting to think that Wheeler is most realistic, though Bumgarner makes some sense too. Man, that Arraez question is tough. However, the things about Arraez were that he was a solid prospect who produced at every level, had some time in AA, added to the 40 but probably not in the 2019 plans. So, I'll go with Jhoan Duran. I think Blankenhorn might be more similar but there are infielders, so I wanted to go with another position. Kirilloff, Rooker and Larnach are higher-ranked prospects so wouldn't be surprising. Duran only has a handful of AA starts, and while he's a talent, he's not a Top 100 guy and I don't think he''s necessarily in any 2020 plans. But, given a shot, he could take off. From AZ Twins: I see a lot of people with “grass is greener” mindset. Which Twins player would Twins fans be most excited about joining the Twins if he came from another team? Is this player the same person you think has the most potential on the Twins? Seth: So many possible answers. Could say Polanco or Kepler because they were most productive. Nelson Cruz was incredible. I would say Jose Berrios would be the Twins player that the Twins fans would be most excited about if he came to the Twins from another team this offseason. He's obviously younger, but he's been better than Wheeler, who will get huge money. Has upside. As for the player with the most potential, that clearly continues to be Byron Buxton. From Rochester Dave: Do you have any sense if the front office is happy with the AAA affiliation being in Rochester? There is only One direct flight (Delta) between the cities daily and across baseball there seems to be a trend towards the affiliates being closer to the major league city. I should add that I believe that the Red Wings are quite happy with the Twins. I know, I am looking forward to Graterol, Larnach, Kiriloff and Lewis in the not so distant future! Also, have you ever visited Frontier Field? Seth: I have not been to Frontier Field. I would love to. I flew in to Syracuse once for work 15+ years ago, drove south to Cortland and then flew out of Binghamton. That's probably as close as I've been. I don't have any sense of that, but I would think the Twins are happy to be with the Red Wings. I'm sure there are little things here and there, but I don't think that the flight situation is a negative. Only negative is how early it is. I don't necessarily see it as a trend yet for AAA affiliates to be closer, there are a few, but maybe any potential rework of the minor league systems with any "contraction" might facilitate some of that. And, the Red Wings should be happy with the Twins. They have a pipeline of prospects that will show up more in 2020 and beyond, and they do a nice job bringing in good minor league veterans too, allowing them to be more competitive. From tarheeltwinsfan: Do the Twins have a binding contract with Elizabethton, which will be breached if the Elizabethton team is eliminated by MLB? Who pays for the extensive renovations which the city of Elizabethton has done recently? Seth: I am not certain the specifics of the Twins deal with Elizabethton. Most Player Development Agreements are signed for two years. The Twins have done a couple of four year deals over the years. The Twins contributed some, but I believe the majority of the ballpark renovations were (and may continue to be) paid for my the taxpayers of Elizabethton. NOTE: This article indicates that Elizabethton will pay $1.5 million and the Twins will pay $800,000 toward the ballpark renovations. From mike link: I was surprised, but not disappointed that Raley was not in the top 10 of prospects to make it on the Twins Roster in 2020.I suspect he is more of a trade prospect. Seth: He probably should be in the Top 10 of that ranking. I truly think that we underrate him, myself included. As I've pointed out, when he was hurt in late-April, early-May, he was making a great impression on the Red Wings and people were taking notice. He is a really good hitter. Maybe not quite the power of Rooker, but much less swing-and-miss, more speed, better defense and will likely hit for more average. He definitely wasn't added to the 40-man roster just to be a trade chip. Now, he could be traded but that isn't the reason ever to add a player. From SteelDodo: Do you have your favorite mlb draft strategies that you prefer? (HS pitcher, HS batter, college pitcher, college batter, etc.) From what I've read, generally, college position players have a higher success rate than pitchers, so I tend to agree with our current FO on spending early draft picks and most of the international money on position players. Having said that, do you think the strategy is TOO batter heavy? What would you do differently if you were in charge of Twins drafting? Seth: That could be a series of articles on its own. My overall theme would simply be to take whichever player you believe has the best chance of being the best player overall. Honestly, outside of a few #1 or #2 overall college pitchers, there aren't a lot of givens in the draft. There are examples of high school and college, hitters and pitchers taken in the Top 5 picks who bust or become stars, in most every organization. I do think that generally pitchers are more risky, but I also think that you have to take those risks sometimes and then hope. In recent years, they've mixed it up pretty well. They've taken college pitchers and high school hitters and pitchers high. They've taken some college bats high the last few years. And then they seen to just add a ton of college arms late, which is hard to argue against as a strategy. From Richard Swerdlick: I am thinking of getting a subscription to MILB TV in 2020 so I can watch some of our prospects. Any thoughts about MILB TV as a service? Seth: I have had MiLB.tv for several years. It's great but fully dependent upon the work done by the affiliates. Rochester does a good job. Pensacola does a really good job. Cedar Rapids has a great production. Ft. Myers and Elizabethton don't have feeds. The nice thing too is that you can go back to games and find highlights. I probably don't use it to its fully potential. From goulik: Raley, Rooker, Larnach... can you rate these three in comparison to each other offensively, defensively, greatest potential, and highest floor? Seth: Larnach is the top prospect of the group. He could hit for average, should add power over time too. Probably the best of the three on defense. Greatest overall potential. Rooker has the most power potential but it will come with the most swing-and-miss. Raley may have the highest floor, though Larnach might too. Raley's just solid all-around. Could hit for some average, some power, and play solid defense. From Rosterman: People don't get excited about the signing of minor league free agents, and in the past it was reported as Big News, but now seems to gets hedlines at MLBtraderumors. You would think that with around 150 players in your organization, one wouldn't need to sign players to mostly play at AAA ball (with a few starting their next turn at AA ball). Can you explain to all of us the reasoning behind minor league free agents, the reason an organization will spend extra money to bring in players looking for a comeback or stalled then jettisoned by a team, or reflect on some gem moments you might remember of such signings in, prhaps, the past decade? Seth: I think the biggest reason is that baseball is hard. Playing AAA ball is really hard, and only a select number get there and succeed there. Teams need to fill AAA rosters. However, it's also important to have depth so that you don't put your prospects in a bad place. First and foremost, teams are going to do what is best for their prospects, at least the top prospects and probably even the secondary prospects. Could the Twins have called up Alex Kirilloff or even Trevor Larnach in September instead of adding Ian Miller (veteran but came in a trade) or Ryan LaMarre? Sure. Would that have been good for the Twins or the player? Who knows? So it's about protecting prospects and filling out a AAA roster. It's also just about having depth. Blaine Hardy is a big-league pitcher, and he can help the 2020 Twins in a role. If they keep adding more players, maybe that role is to start the season at AAA and when the Twins have a need, he gets called up. The Twins have had a lot of successes with minor league free agent signings. I'm not going to look too far back, but Willians Astudillo proved to be a good minor league signing. Ryne Harper was a good minor league signing. LaMarre was a good minor league signing. By their nature, you're not going to find any stars as minor league free agents. That's very rare. But you can find complementary parts that help a team win games. Click here to view the article

Wander Javier is the one that gets talked about the most... I'd hate to lose him. I am most worried about losing Luis Rijo though... Highest upside pitcher, by far.

Updated...

In this week's episode, we get to know a Twins minor league coordinator and a West Fargo native who was recently added to the 40-man roster of the Arizona Diamondbacks. Get to know infielder Andy Young and Twins minor league infield and baserunning coordinator Billy Boyer. And spend Ten Minutes with Tyler too.Twins Territory covers a huge area. It's obviously all of Minnesota, but it's parts of western Wisconsin, northern Iowa, South Dakota, North Dakota and beyond. Our first guest this week grew up in West Fargo. He became a star on the baseball field and has taken a circuitous route through college and the minor leagues to a point where he was just added to the Arizona Diamondbacks 40-man roster after a season in which he hit a combined 29 home runs between AA and AAA. Get to know, infielder Andy Young. Follow him on Twitter at AndyJYoung15. Ten Minutes with Tyler this week only lasted about 15 minutes, our shortest conversation since he's joined the podcast every couple of episodes. Tyler discusses topics such as the Twins minor league coaching changes, new leadership, 40-man roster moves, his rehab from Tommy John surgery and more. This week, we also discussed the passing of Ryan Costello, a dear friend to so many throughout the Twins organization. Follow Tyler Wells on Twitter. Finally, our third conversation in this week's podcast is with Twins minor league infield and base-running coordinator Billy Boyer. He joined the organization about a year ago. We discuss his role and what he tries to accomplish throughout the system with players. He talked about the collaboration and communication that is prevalent throughout the organization. We also find out more about his background in the game, from minor league player, to college coaching duties to his time with the Twins. Follow Billy Boyeron Twitter. Please leave some comments in the the forum below. Ask questions. Let me know who you would like to see interviewed and even what you would like me to ask them. Your feedback is very helpful. You can subscribe to the Get to Know 'Em podcast on iTunes. or follow Libsyn for new episodes here as well. PAST EPISODES Episode 1: Get to know Niko Guardado (Actor and son of Eddie Guardado) Episode 2: Get to know Pat Dean, Brent Rooker Episode 3: Get to know Royce Lewis, AJ Achter Episode 4: Get to know Devin Smeltzer Episode 5: Get to know Jaylin Davis, Tyler Wells Episode 6: Get to know: Travis Blankenhorn, LaMonte Wade Episode 7: Get to know: Matt Wallner (and Ten Minutes with Tyler Wells) Episode 8: Get to know: Caleb Hamilton, Austin Schulfer, Nick Anderson Please share your thoughts in the comments below. Not registered? Click here to create an account. To stay up to date, follow Twins Daily on Twitter and Facebook. Click here to view the article

Kirilloff: potentially elite hitter, maybe .300 with 25 homers. Can play LF, RF, 1B Larnach: potentially elite hitter, maybe .300 with 25 homers. Can play LF, RF. Raley: potentially solid hitter, maybe .280 with 30 homers. Can play LF, RF, and CF (though he's stretched there) Rooker: potentially potent power hitter, maybe .250 with 35-40 homers. Can play LF or RF (though he's stretched at both) and 1B.

I think we've learned that over time, especially since they altered the rules of eligibility 7-8 years ago... We do spend a lot of time thinking about it and generally about 15 guys get taken and about 8 of them go back to their original team (made-up numbers, not researched, but just approximating). The other way to look at it is that teams generally do a pretty good job of evaluating their own players and protect the right people, even if "we" sometimes worry.

Anderson was traded before the deadline. In fact, I think it was announced with the additions.The reason was so that the Marlins could add him to their 40-man roster. The Twins could try to trade a non-added player. Let's use Jax as the example, and I think you may have answered your own question. Those guys can't be added to the 40-man now, so the acquiring team would then risk them being taken. It's the same reason that teams generally try to not announce their minor league signings until after the Rule 5, so they don't have to risk losing them. You may recall that one year the Twins signed RA Dickey to a minor league deal, then a week later the Mariners Rule 5d him. Likewise, a guy like Jax's value does go back up immediately after the Rule 5 draft, if he isn't selected because now the team has a year to determine if they would want to add him... but that is also true for the Twins.

Well, and if there are people touting him as the next Gerrit Cole, they should ask for more.

I thought the same thing, but I was trying to be equivalent to what the Pirates got for Cole. That's not easy to do, but looking back, they probably didn't get enough for Cole, but at the time, it was a solid haul.

He made $2.925 million in 2019, his first arbitration season. MLB Trade Rumors projects him to make $5.6 million in 2020.

They can't be.

Absolutely... he and Griffin Jax are an interesting contrast in terms of how teams view the Rule 5 draft. Jaz is 90-92, solid secondary, etc. He got a little AAA time, so by age and experience, he's close. Rijo throws 93-96, is a few years younger, but has topped out at Low-A so far. So are teams interested in ready to contribute or higher ceiling and stash? Or both... or neither..???

Yesterday, Nick wrote an article talking about how the Twins deserve creditfor acquiring Jake Odorizzi and working with him to find his best self in 2019. Today, I wanted to continue the “Finding the Next Gerrit Cole” theme by literally trying to find someone who could possibly provide the type of impact that Cole had on the Astros. Maybe there is one potential trade candidate out there who fits that mold.Twins fans (at least those who read Twins Daily) have known about Jon Gray and his pitching talents since before the Colorado Rockies made him the third overall pick in the 2013 MLB Draft. The Twins Geek wrote up a Draft Profile on the flame-thrower from Oklahoma. That year, Gray was taken after the Astros took Mark Appel and the Cubs selected Kris Bryant. One pick after the Rockies drafted Gray, the Twins used the fourth overall pick on Kohl Stewart. Gerrit Cole, of course, was the first overall pick in the 2011 MLB Draft by the Pittsburgh Pirates out of UCLA. Cole is listed at 6-foot-4. Gray is listed at 6-foot-4. Cole is listed at 225 pounds. Gray is listed at 227 pounds. Of course, height and weight are important in scouting, but in this analysis, it means nothing. There are dozens of MLB (and minor league) pitchers that are 6-foot-4 and 225 pounds or so. I thought it would be interesting to compare more to see how similar the two might be. To do so, I looked at Gerrit Cole in 2017. He was 26 years old and had two more years of arbitration remaining. In 2019, Jon Gray was 27 years old, and as we look forward, he has two more years before he can become a free agent. So let’s take a look at how Gerrit Cole performed for the Pirates in 2017 and compare it to how Jon Gray pitched for the Rockies in 2019. And hey, just for fun, let’s throw Cole’s 2019 numbers in there too. What does it show us? Obviously we know that Win-Loss record doesn’t tell us anything. Gray’s ERA was better, but Cole held a slight advantage in xFIP (Fielding Independent Pitching). Cole had the better WHIP. It might surprise people to see that Gray actually struck out more batters, though it’s statistically close enough, especially when strikeouts continue to increase across the league. Cole had better control. The biggest difference is that Cole topped 200 innings in 2017 while Gray pitched just 150 innings in 2019. Gray went on the injured list in mid-August with a fractured left foot. He had surgery and should be ready in advance of spring training. He had a similar foot/ankle injury in 2017 that cost him two-and-a-half months. Gray gets more ground balls, though I can’t help but wonder if that’s due to how he chooses to pitch in Colorado.The two had very similar strikeout rates. Again, comparing those numbers to what Cole became in 2019 is more just fun than anything else, something to dream on. Some will say that Gray isn’t as good as Cole was in 2017. I think that the numbers above show that they are more similar statistically than we may have even thought. But I think it’s more important to look at how they pitch to see whether or not they are similar. Is their stuff comparable? Here are some numbers, again comparing Gray in 2019 with Cole in 2017. And, of course, I needed to add Cole in 2019 to the chart for fun, but also for a point. (SETH CORRECTION: Jon Gray threw 33.5% sliders, not 13.5% Sorry if that created confusion.) I happen to think this chart is really interesting. Again, comparing Gray in 2019 with Cole in 2017, there are a lot of similarities. They both had an average fastball of 96 mph. They both throw 88 mph sliders. Gray’s curveball came in just a little slower, and so did his changeup. Cole threw more fastballs. Gray threw a lot of sliders and didn’t throw many changeups. Cole gave up less contact and got a higher percentage of swing-and-misses on strikes. It all speaks to his stuff being right on par with Garret Cole’s in 2017. The Big Question In my mind, the big question is - and should be with any pitcher the Twins consider with trades or free agency: Do the Twins pitching coaches, coordinators and evaluators think that Jon Gray can take it a step up from his 2019 numbers the same way that Cole’s performance jumped from 2017 to 2019? Cole added one mph on his fastball and on his slider. He did so while throwing a fewer fastballs and changeups and a few more sliders and curveballs. Can Jon Gray add a tick or two to his velocity? Can his pitch mix be altered in such a way to reduce his contact rate and improve his swing-and-miss stuff? Ultimately that’s what the Twins brass needs to consider. What Might it Take? If they do consider Gray to be a guy that could take a step forward in performance and possibly be an elite starting pitcher, well, then they need to figure out what they are willing to give up to acquire him from the Rockies. So again, let’s look at Gerrit Cole for a comparison. The Houston Astros acquired Gerrit Cole from the Pittsburgh Pirates in exchange for four players: RHP Michael Feliz - He was 24 years old and spent two-plus seasons with the Astros before the trade. He had a 5.13 ERA over that time period before the deal.OF Jason Martin - He was a 22-year-old at the time of the deal. He split 2017 between High-A and AA and hit 35 doubles and 18 home runs that season.1B/3B Colin Moran - He was 25 and had been a high draft pick. He was a Top 100 prospect in previous years but no longer at the time of the deal.RHP Joe Musgrave - He was a 24-year-old, a first-round pick in 2011. He spent time as a part-time starter with the Astros in 2016 and 2017.So what might a similar deal look like for the Twins.Obviously this is a hypothetical, but I think it would take something similar to the below. I think that the package should be similar, but still a little less than what was required to acquire Cole.RHP Fernando Romero - Romero is currently 24-years-old and has spent parts of 2018 and 2019 in the big leagues. While his numbers in 2019, his first year as a bullpen arm, didn’t do great, his potential is still high.IF Travis Blankenhorn - He was just added to the 40-man roster, but like Martin, he split 2019 between High-A and AA and hit 19 home runs despite missing a bit more than a month with a broken finger.OF/1B - Brent Rooker - Can you imagine what Brent Rooker could do to baseballs in the Mile High City? Rooker had been in the Top 100 prospects last year but injuries cost him time in 2019. But his power is legit.RHP Griffin Jax - Now, when I put this together, I wasn’t sure if Jax would be added to the 40-man roster. The Denver (area) native wasn’t added to the 40-man roster, so he’s less likely to be tradable until after the Rule 5 draft. But there are any number of similar pitchers in the organization that the Rockies might have an interest in as well. If I were to keep the theme of Denver-area people, Bailey Ober might be a candidate. Or, might it take a pitcher with some big-league service time like a Devin Smeltzer or even Lewis Thorpe to be a sufficient final piece?Let’s be honest. There’s no way to know what the Rockies would ask for. Maybe instead of four similar prospects, they may ask for one big prospect with one lesser prospect, or maybe the fourth player in this deal could be two other players. SUMMARY The Twins - and every team in baseball - want to find the next Gerrit Cole.Rockies ace Jon Gray has a lot of similarities to Gerrit Cole pre-trade, both statistically and in terms of stuff.The Twins - and every team in baseball - will need to attempt to evaluate if they have ways that could make Gray take the next step toward becoming an elite starter.Determine how much your team is willing to trade in exchange for Jon Gray (and then go-ahead and try to convince the Rockies that it is enough).Hope! Hey, just because there are similarities between pitchers (age, size, stats and stuff) does not necessarily mean that they will have the same success. There is a lot of luck involved. But Derek Falvey has a reputation for developing pitchers. Wes Johnson got a lot of credit for some of the Twins pitching successes and improvements in 2019.If nothing else, it’s fun to think about. Finding the next Gerrit Cole is half the battle. Helping him develop into that pitcher is another thing. Maybe there are red flags, concerns about Jon Gray specifically. Maybe there are other issues that the Twins need to factor and consider. We can’t know it all, but as fans, we’ve been waiting for a true Ace since Johan Santana. Click here to view the article

Kepler was added after the 2013 season, and he didn't debut until the final weeks of 2015. 40-man roster spots aren't just for guys who can contribute next year. It's also for those types who can be big-time impact players in the next couple of seasons. Kepler and Polanco were both added after 2013 in Cedar Rapids... Polanco wasn't a regular until 2016. Of course, a few years before that, they added Deibinson Romero and Estarlin de los Santos after their 2008 season in Beloit. Doesn't always work out.

Yup, Raley can play in the big leagues now, and he even played a bunch of CF in the spring and in the season. He's much more well-rounded than Rooker. Blankenhorn is just such a great athlete, and he started figuring things out more in 2019. If he can keep that up, he has a chance to be really good... and his versatility will help too.

Assume you're talking about Luis Rijo. He was hitting 95-96 in 2019, so that's pretty good for a 20-21 year old.

They may not be drafted, but not because they finished at Low A... Jax doesn't have much upside, but he's probably fairly close to being big-league ready. Ceiling probably a #4 starter...

The Minnesota Twins have announced that right-handed pitchers Jhoan Duran and Dakota Chalmers, infielder Travis Blankenhorn and outfielders Luke Raley and Gilberto Celestino have been added to the team's 40-man roster. The Twins roster now sits at 37 players.Jhoan Duran was the obvious choice. He split the 2019 season between Ft. Myers and Pensacola. He is touted for his fastball which has hit triple digits on multiple occasions. He is viewed as a starting pitcher. The Twins acquired him in July 2018 from the Diamondbacks in the Eduardo Escobar trade. Dakota Chalmers came to the Twins in August 2018 from the A's in exchange for Fernando Rodney. Chalmers had recently undergone Tommy John surgery, but he is touted for having a big fastball. He also has the makings of plus change up and curveball. He returned to action in the second half of 2019 for the Ft. Myers Miracle. When their season ended, he and Jordan Balazovic were promoted to Pensacola for their playoff run. Gilberto Celestino joined the Twins in July 2018, with Jorge Alcala who was added to the roster in September, in the Ryan Pressly trade. After a slow start, he was on fire his final two-plus months in Cedar Rapids. He ended the season with a couple of weeks in Ft. Myers where he continued to hit. He also plays an elite caliber centerfield. Luke Raley came to the Twins with Devin Smeltzer in the July 2018 Brian Dozier trade from the Dodgers. He missed most of the 2019 season but returned to play in the Arizona Fall League. Travis Blankenhorn was the Twins third-round pick in 2015 out of high school in Pennsylvania. He spent about two weeks in Ft. Myers this year before hitting 18 homers for Pensacola. The biggest name left off of the roster is Wander Javier. The Twins signed the shortstop from the Dominican Republic in 2015 for a $4 million signing bonus. Griffin Jax and Luis Rijo are two starting pitchers who could potentially be lost in the Rule 5 draft. Share your thoughts on the Twins decisions. Here is our listing of players who were eligible to be protected. Click here to view the article

Was a bad example. Didn't want to pick the name of anyone who they might actually consider dropping later if needed.

Cave was a bad example... but I used him because I'd be shocked if he was to be DFAd. But there are other guys on the 40 that could be removed still if they don't want to risk losing an extra guy or two and still plan to add more free agents too. Teams leave guys that they can drop later if need be.